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  • #124,301
  • Aug 14, 2025 6:55pm Aug 14, 2025 6:55pm
I don’t even want to do much until Monday because of the meeting between Trump and Putin.
For example, if some kind of peace is announced, oil should drop, as should gold.
Today oil had a good day, but gold kept falling, as did the euro, even though peace would primarily benefit Europe. I see that right now it seems more like a meeting mainly for economic trade deals, although at the same time he says that if peace isn’t made, he will sanction them economically.
Or maybe He says everything one way, and then the result is the complete opposite.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #124,302
  • Aug 14, 2025 7:05pm Aug 14, 2025 7:05pm
Quoting DMA Trader
I don’t even want to do much until Monday because of the meeting between Trump and Putin. For example, if some kind of peace is announced, oil should drop, as should gold. Today oil had a good day, but gold kept falling, as did the euro, even though peace would primarily benefit Europe. I see that right now it seems more like a meeting mainly for economic trade deals, although at the same time he says that if peace isn’t made, he will sanction them economically. Or maybe He says everything one way, and then the result is the complete opposite.
us inflation near 1% in 1 month for producers. Add some more for consumers. I dont see any relief for this trend yet. When things cost more. People have less to spend on luxury, discretionary items. If you take the guys picking your produce, putting a roof on your home, killing your beef/pigs. The guys who replace them will want more money. Some jobs won't have replacements. So the law of supply and demand will raise prices further than tariffs. Its all inflationary. I think you once said your in the restaurant business. Its about to get rough. Eating out is discretionary. The cost will rise very fast. At the same time, broke people will eat out less. People are about to get a real education.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,303
  • Aug 14, 2025 7:45pm Aug 14, 2025 7:45pm
possible eu short.. 1661A 68R 81R.. lower b/o stustaned -1634s
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,304
  • Aug 14, 2025 7:53pm Aug 14, 2025 7:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I got a live active buy signal on it.. But I think its best to wait for 147.47.. That buy signal may not allow 147.47 {image}
UJ may go down on this one
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #124,305
  • Aug 14, 2025 7:57pm Aug 14, 2025 7:57pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} us inflation near 1% in 1 month for producers. Add some more for consumers. I dont see any relief for this trend yet. When things cost more. People have less to spend on luxury, discretionary items. If you take the guys picking your produce, putting a roof on your home, killing your beef/pigs. The guys who replace them will want more money. Some jobs won't have replacements. So the law of supply and demand will raise prices further than tariffs. Its all inflationary. I think you once said your in the restaurant business. Its about to get...
yeah, it's just that PPI is very volatile. Not sure if we can take 1% in July.
I was years ago but sold. Sales were going margins down, crazy amount of work and a 24/7 business. The only nice thing was daily cashflow.
But yeah I watch a lot of companies in this field. Very hard part especially now. Besides $MCD I am not sure what's working anymore.
Even Chipotle is going to a hard time yet I always see their restaurants full.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #124,306
  • Aug 15, 2025 1:24am Aug 15, 2025 1:24am
Commander's Market Log – 15 Aug 2025
Live Chart ➜ https://www.tradingview.com/x/6JMj0DJL/
Bias: Neutral ➜ leaning bullish above 1.1650, bearish below 1.1589.
Key Drivers: Heavy US data load + Trump–Putin Alaska meeting = extreme headline risk into NY close. Expect liquidity spikes, algo surges, and extended ranges.
Support Zones:
S1: 1.1650 – Weekly / Fib confluence
S2: 1.1622 – Monthly pivot zone
S3: 1.1590 – Key PowerZone / psychological
S4: 1.1564 – 161.8% Fib ext.
S5: 1.1530 – Major swing low
Resistance Zones:
R1: 1.1685 – Fib/PowerZone
R2: 1.1707 – 200 EMA / Monthly R1
R3: 1.1735 – Weekly R1
R4: 1.1765 – 161.8% Fib ext.
R5: 1.1790 – Monthly R2 / Supply
Today’s Red-Flag Events (BST):
• 13:30 – USD Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales, Empire State Index, Import Prices.
• 14:15 – USD Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production.
• 15:00 – USD UoM Sentiment, Inflation Expectations.
• Trump–Putin Alaska Meeting (time unclear) – headline risk all day.
Tactical Notes:
• Break & hold above 1.1685 ➜ momentum shift to test 1.1707/1.1735.
• Rejection at R2/R3 ➜ pullback toward 1.1650/1.1622.
• London & NY likely to hinge on US data → geopolitical risk may override tech levels.
Commander’s orders: Friday + major meeting = treat like NFP on steroids. Zones likely to be overrun in both directions. Maintain agility, scale in/out, and protect gains fast. Watch R2/S2 for key reactions.
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FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,307
  • Aug 15, 2025 7:13am Aug 15, 2025 7:13am
eu to me is st bullish today to test 1705/14. If it gets there soon. It may run back to 1661 after. Timing is the hard part. 1661 may have some lull when/if bull stall. 1661 is below the support at 1682 1682 may prevent it. But if pa is below 1682. 1682 may develop into R. It may dip below 1682 now. But since it has a few closes above. 1705/14 looks to be in the path. Break 1682 or test 1705/14
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,308
  • Aug 15, 2025 7:40am Aug 15, 2025 7:40am
Quoting gatorinla
eu to me is st bullish today to test 1705/14. If it gets there soon. It may run back to 1661 after. Timing is the hard part. 1661 may have some lull when/if bull stall. 1661 is below the support at 1682 1682 may prevent it. But if pa is below 1682. 1682 may develop into R. It may dip below 1682 now. But since it has a few closes above. 1705/14 looks to be in the path. Break 1682 or test 1705/14
rejection at 1782?
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,309
  • Edited 8:10am Aug 15, 2025 7:58am | Edited 8:10am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} yeah, it's just that PPI is very volatile. Not sure if we can take 1% in July. I was years ago but sold. Sales were going margins down, crazy amount of work and a 24/7 business. The only nice thing was daily cashflow. But yeah I watch a lot of companies in this field. Very hard part especially now. Besides $MCD I am not sure what's working anymore. Even Chipotle is going to a hard time yet I always see their restaurants full.
They are a premian fast food. If you make those fresh ingredients cost more. Plus take away a lot of the customers. It's not surprising to see hard times. Every action has a opposite reaction. We have an economy built on some parts having cheap labor. When that is changing in a short period of time. Expect a lot of businesses to fail. Guess who ate a lot of cheap fast food? If its just a few %. That a few % of sales. Restaurants. All business has a bare bone minimal amount of business needed to keep the doors open. Example, the first 85% may be what keeps the doors open (lights rent wages etc). After that its into profit. Take away 5% of my customers. I may have to close the doors. That is happening. Most restaurants fail to start with. Add a higher labor cost, and ingredients, while the labor market is shrinking?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,310
  • Aug 15, 2025 8:19am Aug 15, 2025 8:19am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} They are a premian fast food. If you make those fresh ingredients cost more. Plus take away a lot of the customers. It's not surprising to see hard times. Every action has a opposite reaction. We have an economy built on some parts having cheap labor. When that is changing in a short period of time. Expect a lot of businesses to fail. Guess who ate a lot of cheap fast food? If its just a few %. That a few % of sales. Restaurants. All business has a bare bone minimal amount of business needed to keep the doors open. Example, the first 85%...
A train is coming. A lot of farms and ranches will need to sell. Some larger ones will be at the fire sales. They will run those with less competition. They were bought cheap. So they can produce cheap. Just enough to hurt the ones hanging on. When those are mostly gone, the prices of stuff rises. The circle of life. The same is happening in stores etc. Less middle class business owners
Eventually like the past, there will have a few large corps owning most retail. That's the trajectory. The old worker living on the companies land, and shopping at the company store. Like in the 1800s
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,311
  • Edited 10:29am Aug 15, 2025 10:17am | Edited 10:29am
Quoting gatorinla
eu to me is st bullish today to test 1705/14. If it gets there soon. It may run back to 1661 after. Timing is the hard part. 1661 may have some lull when/if bull stall. 1661 is below the support at 1682 1682 may prevent it. But if pa is below 1682. 1682 may develop into R. It may dip below 1682 now. But since it has a few closes above. 1705/14 looks to be in the path. Break 1682 or test 1705/14
1714 was reached.. will it top there? I dont know. But it has potential, getting back below 1705 and 1682 may cause a fall. Th pulls to 1661 has expired.. Being bacl below 1682 is likely a rejection. being sustained below 1634 is likely a bearish break out. numbers will change 1714 will not for a while. If pa does rise above 1714 it can run.. But getting back below can reject the top
If it will make a top, it may be limited to 40ish pips above.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,312
  • Aug 15, 2025 10:52am Aug 15, 2025 10:52am
day wise pa is bullish above 1682 and 1705. But in the way is 1714. 1714 is larger than a day. That's why it matters impo
I use 1714 for a week marker. A week range average is 230 pips. Pa could be 230 pips on either side by mid week, next week. that would be average.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,313
  • Aug 15, 2025 3:34pm Aug 15, 2025 3:34pm
On open, a possible gap below 1686 or 1682 South. North above 1714. Either side is the likely run. Every indicator momentum/trend, I got wants me to long. I can easily hold a long.

2 things that makes me skeptical. 1714 heavily, and mostly 1714 and 1686 as a group. The month missed 1686 in my view, today may close below 1714. So it may gap below 1686. I say its bearish below 1714, and more so with a close or gap open below 1686
Between the 2 is 1700
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,314
  • Aug 15, 2025 3:52pm Aug 15, 2025 3:52pm
Quoting gatorinla
On open, a possible gap below 1686 or 1682 South. North above 1714. Either side is the likely run. Every indicator momentum/trend, I got wants me to long. I can easily hold a long. 2 things that makes me skeptical. 1714 heavily, and mostly 1714 and 1686 as a group. The month missed 1686 in my view, today may close below 1714. So it may gap below 1686. I say its bearish below 1714, and more so with a close or gap open below 1686 Between the 2 is 1700
it still can go either way~ don’t see a real direction but agreed that 1715 is heavy!
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,315
  • Edited 9:26pm Aug 15, 2025 9:15pm | Edited 9:26pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} it still can go either way~ don’t see a real direction but agreed that 1715 is heavy!
1686 could be bigger. Its just not showing its hand much until today. It probably will matter if its develop now. It likely not on many's radar because its been silent. That may be untrue soon.
But indicator wise its very bullish. It did close today below 1714. If it did open below 1686 and more so 82. It could top
Above 1614 is likely bullish. But missed this weeks close. A close I watch was missed for +1686. Under the surface its saying bear,
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,316
  • Aug 15, 2025 10:06pm Aug 15, 2025 10:06pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1686 could be bigger. Its just not showing its hand much until today. It probably will matter if its develop now. It likely not on many's radar because its been silent. That may be untrue soon. But indicator wise its very bullish. It did close today below 1714. If it did open below 1686 and more so 82. It could top Above 1614 is likely bullish. But missed this weeks close. A close I watch was missed for +1686. Under the surface its saying bear,
yea indicators are bullish but on a higher timeframe 1715 1730 should cap the move.
looks more like consolidation on a higher time frame.
i will look for topping signals on Monday.

i do have 1680 and 1696. 1696 is weaker
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,317
  • Aug 16, 2025 3:30am Aug 16, 2025 3:30am
Quoting saninvestor
{quote} I was waiting for 1735/8 to start thinking about short. It missed it yesterday. So I have to wait. Sidelines now...
Still waiting to see s signal after reaching 1735/8.
I need it to see a topping. Before it, I can't go short except some scalpers. It may go higher. 1750 is another one to me. Between 1735 and 1750 is tough. It can still go higher above 1750. But the zone is a place to looking for a long-term short probably. It worth waiting for me and trying to catch a top. It's about R/R.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #124,318
  • Edited 1:36pm Aug 16, 2025 1:12pm | Edited 1:36pm
Quoting saninvestor
{quote} Still waiting to see s signal after reaching 1735/8. I need it to see a topping. Before it, I can't go short except some scalpers. It may go higher. 1750 is another one to me. Between 1735 and 1750 is tough. It can still go higher above 1750. But the zone is a place to looking for a long-term short probably. It worth waiting for me and trying to catch a top. It's about R/R.
yeah,, A open above 1714 along with indicators point north. I would be cautious if it opened below 1686 and 1682. All these numbers are pretty close. Its 14 pips away at 1700.. Whatever way it goes, it may be still in an early move. We have a chance to hop on early still. I have to give bulls edging bears.. But Cot did loose more longs than shorts. Bulls need to take 1714 to me,, Losing 1682 Monday sustained if not what bulls want. Losing 1714 after being above it also what bulls dont want. Bulls want 1714 to be support. It may need to retest 1682.. Bulls dont want to lose 1682. It would be a sign of slipping after slipping at 1714 twice last week. 1686 this week coming has more meaning and probably more power as a bull bear divider. +1714 is likely bullish b/o when sustained above. 1686 82 below sustained would be too for bears. But with the history of rejecting 1714 and 1686..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,319
  • Aug 17, 2025 3:41pm Aug 17, 2025 3:41pm
iG showing slight gap down below 1.17 but my platform opened an hour early above 1.171
hmmmm
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,320
  • Aug 17, 2025 4:12pm Aug 17, 2025 4:12pm
Quoting johncen
iG showing slight gap down below 1.17 but my platform opened an hour early above 1.171 hmmmm
I got a few different opens, different platforms. All under 1714, but not 1686 82. Indicator wise leans bulls still. 1714 is still blocking. Close/open wise is less favorable for bulls. That dont mean anything atm. The cards are close to pa's chest, R/R wise I preferer giving some to make 5x
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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