EURUSD London Session Manipulation (AMD) | Page 5 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD, GBP/CHF

Similar Threads

Session Open Manipulation Module 1 reply

London session and us session 1 reply

EURUSD drop/manipulation - Anybody else sick... 44 replies

Which pair move more during US session compare to london session? 2 replies

Relation of the Asian session to the London session... 3 replies

Attachments: EURUSD London Session Manipulation (AMD)
Exit Attachments

EURUSD London Session Manipulation (AMD)

  • #81
  • Aug 5, 2025 1:43pm Aug 5, 2025 1:43pm
Quoting eduardo8373
Taking this into account, you should not risk less than 10% since there could be a losing streak of 10 to 12 in a row and you would burn up your account in terms of your plan to reach 250,000usd in 19 months.
You mean not to risk more than 10%, right?

No, I won’t reduce risk for now. I’ll continue risking 10% per trade until I hit $250k, then I’ll stop compounding, lower the risk to 5%, and begin withdrawing profits regularly.

With both my risk parameters and the performance of my strategy, I’ve calculated that my risk of ruin is effectively zero — even 10 losses in a row wouldn’t blow the account. It would result in a significant drawdown (80%+), sure, but not a total wipeout.

I’m comfortable with that because I’ve run the numbers and understand the probabilities involved.
  • #82
  • Aug 6, 2025 1:41am Aug 6, 2025 1:41am
AMD. Targeted PDH..4R
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h3.PNG Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: h2.PNG Size: 43 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: h.PNG Size: 27 KB
cut your losses short and let your profit run
  • #83
  • Aug 6, 2025 2:57am Aug 6, 2025 2:57am
Quoting bleeze
AMD. Targeted PDH..4R {image} {image} {image}
Nice one! Not in London Session though.
  • #84
  • Aug 6, 2025 3:22am Aug 6, 2025 3:22am
Quoting bleeze
AMD. Targeted PDH..4R {image} {image} {image}
Bleeze,
I’ve seen some really impressive trades from you — nicely done. That said, I’m curious about the full picture. Would you be open to sharing the actual numbers behind your system? Things like your win rate, average RR and expectancy.
From what I’ve seen, most of your posts show winning trades — which is great — but I’d love to get a more realistic insight into your playbook and how it performs over a series of trades, not just the highlights.
  • #85
  • Aug 6, 2025 8:41am Aug 6, 2025 8:41am
Strategy Update — Wednesday, August 6th

EURUSD
-1R loss

Took another loss this morning — that’s three in a row now.

It was a valid setup: Frankfurt Open swept the Asia High and printed a clean Sell Signal. I executed as per my system but had my doubts going in. The price had formed relative equal highs with Tuesday’s and Monday’s highs — a triple-top structure that acts like a magnet. I suspected price might pull back briefly and then run those highs.

Still, a valid signal is a valid signal. And if I want to trade like a professional, execution must remain rule-based and systematic. Skipping the trade would’ve meant avoiding this particular loss, sure — but it would also mean violating the very foundation of my strategy. That’s a slippery slope toward bad habits and discretionary decision-making — exactly what I’ve been working so hard to eliminate.

This single loss is irrelevant in the broader scheme. Executing flawlessly despite doubt is the real win today. I don't have a crystal ball — there was no way to know for sure the trade would fail. All I can do is execute consistently and let the probabilities play out.

Of course, it’s still frustrating to watch my balance tick lower. I’m now sitting at $160. But drawdowns are part of the process. I'd rather face them now, with a small account, than later when the numbers are in six or seven figures. These are inexpensive but valuable lessons in discipline and mindset.
And honestly, with my 10% risk model, this kind of equity curve is to be expected. But once the wins begin to land — especially with compounding — the growth can be exponential. Like mushrooms after the rain.

Wednesday’s in the books. Two days left this week. There’s still a shot at turning things around.

No matter what happens next, I’ll keep showing up and executing the plan. This commitment — to act without hesitation, stay emotionally neutral, and accept losses fully — is becoming part of my identity now.

Let’s see how Thursday plays out.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2025-08-06_13-00-03.png Size: 97 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: IMG_131A5BC067D8-1.jpeg Size: 633 KB
  • #86
  • Aug 6, 2025 11:59am Aug 6, 2025 11:59am
Quoting warsawtrader
{quote} Bleeze, I’ve seen some really impressive trades from you — nicely done. That said, I’m curious about the full picture. Would you be open to sharing the actual numbers behind your system? Things like your win rate, average RR and expectancy. From what I’ve seen, most of your posts show winning trades — which is great — but I’d love to get a more realistic insight into your playbook and how it performs over a series of trades, not just the highlights.
each trading day,
‎there is only one question to ask yourself
‎
‎where is the current daily candle going?
‎
‎if there is no obvious answer,
‎then there is no trade
‎
‎move on to the next day, and repeat
‎
‎all you need are a few obvious daily candles each week
‎
‎because if you know the daily candle direction,
‎then you know how the sessions will form
‎
‎and if you know how the sessions will form,
‎you know where and when to enter
‎
‎the daily provides everything you need
‎
‎it clears the noise on the charts
‎it frames the direction for the day
‎it determines intraday price action
‎
‎so keep your main focus there.

I aim for a 3R with a win rate above 50%
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h1.PNG Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: h2.PNG Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: h3.PNG Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: h6.PNG Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: h4.PNG Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: h5.PNG Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: h7.PNG Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: h8.PNG Size: 31 KB
cut your losses short and let your profit run
  • #87
  • Aug 6, 2025 12:47pm Aug 6, 2025 12:47pm
Quoting bleeze
{quote} each trading day, ‎there is only one question to ask yourself ‎ ‎where is the current daily candle going? ‎ ‎if there is no obvious answer, ‎then there is no trade ‎ ‎move on to the next day, and repeat ‎ ‎all you need are a few obvious daily candles each week ‎ ‎because if you know the daily candle direction, ‎then you know how the sessions will form ‎ ‎and if you know how the sessions will form, ‎you know where and when to enter ‎ ‎the...
If you’ve collected enough data on your strategy — ideally a few years' worth covering different market conditions — and it gives you consistent, proven results, then that’s great. You’ve likely got a working system, and that’s the foundation of everything in trading.

As for me, I don’t need to predict what the daily candle will do. My edge doesn’t rely on forecasts or guesswork. It’s backed by over 1,100 trades across 55 months of data. That’s more than enough to give me full confidence in its long-term viability.
  • #88
  • Aug 6, 2025 4:08pm Aug 6, 2025 4:08pm
Quoting warsawtrader
{quote} If you’ve collected enough data on your strategy — ideally a few years' worth covering different market conditions — and it gives you consistent, proven results, then that’s great. You’ve likely got a working system, and that’s the foundation of everything in trading. As for me, I don’t need to predict what the daily candle will do. My edge doesn’t rely on forecasts or guesswork. It’s backed by over 1,100 trades across 55 months of data. That’s more than enough to give me full confidence in its long-term viability.
Well it's not a guess work if you truly understand the phase of price.
Understanding orderflow on htf and trading in the direction.
If you are going to trade AMD then you also must understand the market protraction phase and the real distribution phase after the manipulation.
Else you just end up being the manipulation.
cut your losses short and let your profit run
  • #89
  • Aug 7, 2025 7:37am Aug 7, 2025 7:37am
Strategy Update — Thursday, August 7th

EURUSD
+2R WIN

First win of the week — finally! Hopefully this marks the end of the current losing streak and a shift in momentum.

Price began pushing aggressively higher right after the London Open, sweeping the Asia High and tapping into an unmitigated H4 FVG from late July. The setup was textbook: a clean Sell Signal aligned with overall bearish bias, and I executed it exactly according to plan.

Price then pulled back to mitigate the H1 bearish Order Block (highlighted in orange) — the same one responsible for the earlier drop. After that, it was game over for the bulls. Price melted straight into my full TP just after lunchtime, around 12:30.

What I’m most proud of here is not the result, but the execution — I followed my system precisely, even after taking three losses in a row earlier this week. No hesitation, no fear — just process-driven trading.

See you tomorrow for the final session of the week.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2025-08-07_14-27-14_6c315.png Size: 54 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: IMG_6522.png Size: 56 KB
  • #90
  • Aug 8, 2025 6:21am Aug 8, 2025 6:21am
Strategy Update — Friday, August 8th

EURUSD
-1R LOSS

Very quick loss on this late-morning trade.

We had an Asia Low sweep with divergence as extra confluence, followed by three consecutive bullish M15 candles and a buy signal from the indicator. It was a valid setup according to the playbook — it just didn’t follow through this time.

That wraps up the week with four losses, making it the worst trading week since early June, when the strategy also posted four consecutive losses. In fact, back then, the system recorded its worst performance ever — an 11-trade losing streak from May 21st to June 9th.

So yes, it hasn’t been the most exciting summer for performance:

  1. May: +2R net gain
  2. June: -0.9R net loss
  3. July: -2R net loss
  4. August (so far): break-even

But let’s not forget: April 2025 delivered a massive +18R net monthly gain, which more than covers several break-even or negative months.

So I’m not dwelling on a red week. The focus is on the bigger picture — how this quarter and the year finish.

It’s a marathon, not a sprint.

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2025-08-08_13-06-51.png Size: 130 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: IMG_CEBFEA72EEE1-1.jpeg Size: 658 KB
  • #91
  • Aug 8, 2025 6:26am Aug 8, 2025 6:26am
Quoting bleeze
{image} {image} {image}
Please refrain from posting trades that don’t follow the strategy this thread is based on.

I’ve moved this thread to Trading Journals, and I treat it exactly as that — a place to document and discuss trades in line with the system I’m tracking.

It’s not meant as a place to post isolated winners, especially without sharing the full picture of your trading — including key metrics and losing trades.

Anyone can cherry-pick winning executions and appear to be a trading wizard. That’s not what this space is for. If that’s your goal, this isn’t the right place.
  • #92
  • Aug 11, 2025 8:12am Aug 11, 2025 8:12am
Strategy Update — Monday, August 11th

EURUSD
-1R LOSS

After a relaxing weekend, the new trading week kicked off with a late-session long, taken after an Asia Low manipulation inside a new week opening gap. With both today’s and Friday’s Asia Highs looking like clear targets, the bias for longs felt solid.

Unfortunately, the setup was quickly invalidated and a full loss followed. Still, execution was flawless and fully in line with my plan — no frustration or blame toward the market.

The account now sits at $150, down from my starting balance and reflecting a $137 total loss (47% drawdown).
Of that, $77 came from GBPCHF trades, which I’ve since stopped trading, and $60 came from EURUSD trades with some early ones closed emotionally, cutting potential profits. Something I stopped doing a few weeks ago and I'm determined to continue avoiding.

It’s simply been a rough patch for the strategy. Since July 16th, I’ve had 10 losses, 4 wins, and 2 breakevens — just a 25% win rate, well below the long-term 37% average.
In my backtesting and forward testing over 55 months, around 12 months had win rates under 30%. These stretches are rare but entirely expected.
The key is being mentally prepared for them, keeping perspective, and staying disciplined.

That’s exactly my plan — keep showing up, keep executing, and let the numbers play out. The clouds will pass, as they always do.

On to Tuesday.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2025-08-11_15-12-04_dcf66.png Size: 54 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: IMG_6528.png Size: 53 KB
  • #93
  • Aug 11, 2025 4:15pm Aug 11, 2025 4:15pm
I think what can help is POC from MP, Harmonics, all for daily direction as Bleeze stated. Then find reversal and cont's trades, utilize good R:R
  • #94
  • Aug 12, 2025 6:15am Aug 12, 2025 6:15am
Quoting Sigauke
I think what can help is POC from MP, Harmonics, all for daily direction as Bleeze stated. Then find reversal and cont's trades, utilize good R:R
As I’ve mentioned before, I’m not looking to add any new confluences to my strategy.

It’s already been thoroughly tested and proven profitable, so there’s no need to make changes.

At this stage, it’s all about consistent execution, not adding unnecessary complexity.
  • #95
  • Aug 12, 2025 6:41am Aug 12, 2025 6:41am
Strategy Update — Tuesday, August 12th

EURUSD
-1R LOSS

The losing streak continues after today’s failed long attempt.

Frankfurt and London Opens brought a double sweep, followed by three bullish M15 candles that broke structure to the upside.
I executed as soon as the buy signal printed, but instead of pushing higher, price reversed and hit my stop just after 10 AM.

Still, this was a 100% valid setup executed without hesitation — which I count as a win in terms of discipline and process.

That puts me at -2R for the month. Not great, but far from terrible — just variance and probabilities playing out in real time.

Staying focused, positive, and ready to act professionally tomorrow when the next signal comes.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2025-08-12_13-39-51.png Size: 127 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: IMG_EC9759FC8F49-1.jpeg Size: 666 KB
  • #96
  • Aug 13, 2025 7:17am Aug 13, 2025 7:17am
Strategy Update — Wednesday, August 13th

EURUSD
No trade

Due to work obligations, I wasn’t able to give the markets my full attention this morning.
When I finally checked the charts, I saw that a valid 10AM GMT setup would have already been stopped out.
By the rules of my system, that’s recorded as a loss — making it the 3rd this week, 4th in a row, and the 7th so far in August with nine trading days completed.

No frustration here, just another reminder that these stretches are part of the game.
My job is to keep showing up, keep executing, and trust that the strategy will do its work when conditions shift.
The upswing always comes — the only variable is when.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2025-08-13_14-16-38_7ae9f.png Size: 75 KB
  • #97
  • Aug 14, 2025 3:09am Aug 14, 2025 3:09am
Strategy Update — Thursday, August 14th

EURUSD
-1R LOSS

Super quick loss this morning after an unusually early manipulation at 7AM — right at the Frankfurt Open — of the Asia Low. It’s rare for the very first candle of the session to both be the manipulation candle and print a buy signal. Because of that, I was a little late to the party. My entry wasn’t perfect, but technically it was still favorable for a long. Price dipped just enough to give me a slightly better level, but despite my 10-pip SL giving the trade plenty of breathing room, it was quickly invalidated for a full loss.

That’s now five consecutive losing trades, making it eight losses in my last nine setups. I’ll admit — it’s the kind of stretch that plants those little seeds of doubt. The temptation to tweak, change or re-evaluate the system definitely crossed my mind.

But I also know that with a sub-40% win-rate strategy, losing streaks aren’t just possible — they’re inevitable. These are the moments that truly test your discipline, your confidence in the playbook you’ve built and your ability to keep executing without emotional interference.
The truth is, I’d rather face these drawdowns now with a three-digit account than later when six or seven figures are at stake. Building resilience now means being ready for the pressure later.

My recent backtesting really drives this home. I’ve now got data for all of 2020 and am almost done with 2019, giving me a dataset of over six years and more than 1,500 trades.
The numbers are clear — big drawdowns have happened before and they were followed by massive runs. 2019 took 10k PLN to nearly 200k PLN in 18 months… then collapsed all the way back to 6.3k PLN in just six months… only to recover and reach 1 million PLN in the next 11 months.

If I’d quit during that drawdown, I would have walked away from life-changing profits. In fact, following my risk rules from the start, that account would now be sitting at 8.6M PLN — over $2.3M. That’s the reality of a long-term edge: it’s a marathon, not a sprint.

So today’s trade is in the books — another process-driven execution. Tomorrow’s another chance to show up, stick to the plan and take the next setup.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2025-08-14_10-08-55_6d88d.png Size: 53 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: IMG_6794.png Size: 54 KB
  • #98
  • Aug 15, 2025 11:02am Aug 15, 2025 11:02am
Strategy Update — Friday, August 15th

EURUSD
-1R LOSS

Wrapping up the week with yet another loss — five trades this week, all ending red. This marks my worst losing stretch since late May/early July, and the strategy now sits at -5R for August. Definitely a resilience test.

Today’s setup was valid, so there’s no emotional baggage here. Honestly, even with 10 losses in the last 11 trades, I’m not feeling defeated or discouraged.
I keep going back to my historical data and reminding myself — this is just bad variance. These stretches have happened before, and when the tide turns, the winners tend to roll in quickly.

That’s why stepping away from the charts this weekend will feel especially good. A proper reset and a fresh mind for Monday.

See you next week!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2025-08-15_18-02-01.png Size: 68 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: IMG_DB432C380EC7-1.jpeg Size: 617 KB
  • #99
  • Aug 15, 2025 11:34am Aug 15, 2025 11:34am
Quoting warsawtrader
Strategy Update — Thursday, August 14th EURUSD -1R LOSS Super quick loss this morning after an unusually early manipulation at 7AM — right at the Frankfurt Open — of the Asia Low. It’s rare for the very first candle of the session to both be the manipulation candle and print a buy signal. Because of that, I was a little late to the party. My entry wasn’t perfect, but technically it was still favorable for a long. Price dipped just enough to give me a slightly better level, but despite my 10-pip SL giving the trade...
The Asian high of that day was created by huge volumes, traded on the left of it... So with buying the Asian low you traded against the bigboys..
  • #100
  • Aug 15, 2025 11:50am Aug 15, 2025 11:50am
Quoting satisfyerpro
{quote} The Asian high of that day was created by huge volumes, traded on the left of it... So with buying the Asian low you traded against the bigboys..
Can you please show on the chart what you mean? I see no increase in volume in TV's standard volume indicator. cheers
0 traders viewing now