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The Swamp

  • #124,281
  • Aug 13, 2025 5:00pm Aug 13, 2025 5:00pm
Quoting gatorinla
/{quote} I think 1680/81 is a support. But need to allow it to breath. Since pa didnt close above 1714. 1680/81 have some increase in odds. I think its bullish. But it can test the support before rising.. I will treat 1680/81 area as support
It’s already holding well above 1.17; I think it might try another push to 1.1730 in the next few hours and then get rejected.
Still, I have the impression this has more to do with Ukraine than with inflation. And if tomorrow’s PPI comes out good, does that mean they will cut by 0.25? 0.5 in September? Well, that’s a joke compared to how low the ECB is.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #124,282
  • Aug 14, 2025 12:25am Aug 14, 2025 12:25am
Commander’s Market Log – 14/08/2025
EUR/USD – Mission Briefing
Current Status:
Price is at 1.1692, sitting just below the broken descending wedge support on the 5M. Asia handed us a slow grind with mild downward bias; London is opening with selling pressure.
Key Confluence Zones (Fibonacci + Pivots)
(~200 pips range: 5 above, 5 below)
Resistance Zones:

  1. 1.1813 – Weekly R3 / Fib 161.8% ext
  2. 1.1793 – Monthly R2 confluence
  3. 1.1755 – Weekly R2 / prior swing high cluster
  4. 1.1730–1.1735 – Daily R1 + Fib 61.8%
  5. 1.1712 – Pivot confluence (yesterday's high retest)

Support Zones:

  1. 1.1687–1.1679 – Daily S1 / Fib 38.2% retracement
  2. 1.1668–1.1670 – Fib cluster + prior breakout base
  3. 1.1650–1.1652 – Weekly S1 / Fib 50% retracement
  4. 1.1636 – Fib 61.8% / 200 EMA support
  5. 1.1622 – Weekly S2 confluence

Key Risk Events (GMT+1)

  1. 07:45 – French CPI Final m/m & y/y
  2. 10:00 – Eurozone GDP (Flash) & Employment Change
  3. 13:30 – US Core PPI & Unemployment Claims (High Impact)
  4. 18:00 – President Trump Speaks (Potential High Volatility)
  5. 19:00 – FOMC Member Barkin Speaks

Note: Euro GDP could set early directional bias, but US PPI + Claims is today’s main driver. Trump’s speech can cause off-hours volatility spikes — stay nimble.
Commander’s Tactical View:
Bias is mildly bearish short-term unless 1.1712 is reclaimed with volume.
Break below 1.1687 opens door to 1.1670 and possibly 1.1650.
Above 1.1735, expect momentum toward 1.1755.
Tactical Reminder:

  1. Keep leverage light pre-US data.
  2. If in position before Trump speaks, consider reducing risk — market could spike unpredictably.
  3. Respect the confluence zones — today’s moves likely revolve around them.

Live Chart Link:
CLICK HERE – TradingView EUR/USD Live Chart with all the numbers
End of Briefing
“Adapt, react, and strike when probability is on your side.”
DJ EM K – Commander’s Market Logs
https://djemkumar.com/

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FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,283
  • Aug 14, 2025 2:13am Aug 14, 2025 2:13am
I dont like that this last 12h candle is below 1714. Its also below 1680. The 12h closed below both supports, That to me hurts longs.. Often a bullish rejection,
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,284
  • Aug 14, 2025 2:21am Aug 14, 2025 2:21am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} It’s already holding well above 1.17; I think it might try another push to 1.1730 in the next few hours and then get rejected. Still, I have the impression this has more to do with Ukraine than with inflation. And if tomorrow’s PPI comes out good, does that mean they will cut by 0.25? 0.5 in September? Well, that’s a joke compared to how low the ECB is.
I bought the dip, Resistance now 1.17 quite strong we will see.
now back in full position for another attempt on 1.173

Let's go bulls. On Monday hopefully I can take some profits. Gl to everyone
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #124,285
  • Aug 14, 2025 2:30am Aug 14, 2025 2:30am
I thought yesterday's pa made it strong bullish. But noted it missed staying above 1714. The day closed below 1714. Now a 12h closed below it and 1680. That's a caution sign to me. That 12h close below 1680 is one bulls need to get back. Bulls look weak.. Bears took it back and 1714. I had it as just breathing room before up.. But when 1680 lost the 12h close.. that's weak looking to me.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,286
  • Aug 14, 2025 3:00am Aug 14, 2025 3:00am
I have pa sustained below 1681 as bearish. So its also support. A 12h close below it. Was as sustained as I can get atm. I may be 100% wrong. I took a small short. This 12h close leads me to think 1714 may be a stronger R. Maybe a top was formed yesterday.1680 looks to have some say in this. So for the 12h was not in favor of higher
I also longed the uj
To me, eu is bearish below 1714, until its above.. its bearish below 1680 today..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,287
  • Aug 14, 2025 3:11am Aug 14, 2025 3:11am
Quoting gatorinla
I have pa sustained below 1681 as bearish. So its also support. A 12h close below it. Was as sustained as I can get atm. I may be 100% wrong. I took a small short. This 12h close leads me to think 1714 may be a stronger R. Maybe a top was formed yesterday.1680 looks to have some say in this. So for the 12h was not in favor of higher I also longed the uj To me, eu is bearish below 1714, until its above.. its bearish below 1680 today..
I was waiting for 1735/8 to start thinking about short. It missed it yesterday. So I have to wait. Sidelines now...
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #124,288
  • Aug 14, 2025 3:22am Aug 14, 2025 3:22am
Quoting gatorinla
I have pa sustained below 1681 as bearish. So its also support. A 12h close below it. Was as sustained as I can get atm. I may be 100% wrong. I took a small short. This 12h close leads me to think 1714 may be a stronger R. Maybe a top was formed yesterday.1680 looks to have some say in this. So for the 12h was not in favor of higher I also longed the uj To me, eu is bearish below 1714, until its above.. its bearish below 1680 today..
uj is a bit tricky after the drop earlier today which i m trying to avoid for a bit.

to me usdx 97.70 has some support, bear took us there and have cleared this area, if it turns into a support then we may see a bounce in dollar which will take the eu down.

fingers crossed
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,289
  • Aug 14, 2025 3:34am Aug 14, 2025 3:34am
Looking for EU longs towards 1780
  • #124,290
  • Aug 14, 2025 3:42am Aug 14, 2025 3:42am
Quoting gatorinla
I have pa sustained below 1681 as bearish. So its also support. A 12h close below it. Was as sustained as I can get atm. I may be 100% wrong. I took a small short. This 12h close leads me to think 1714 may be a stronger R. Maybe a top was formed yesterday.1680 looks to have some say in this. So for the 12h was not in favor of higher I also longed the uj To me, eu is bearish below 1714, until its above.. its bearish below 1680 today..
It is because of this downtrend line that's coming on daily
I took today's day out to exclude the noise.
That's a big R in the market

1.18 is a good TP for a while on my longs. maybe than we reject again
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #124,291
  • Aug 14, 2025 6:28am Aug 14, 2025 6:28am
Quoting gatorinla
I have pa sustained below 1681 as bearish. So its also support. A 12h close below it. Was as sustained as I can get atm. I may be 100% wrong. I took a small short. This 12h close leads me to think 1714 may be a stronger R. Maybe a top was formed yesterday.1680 looks to have some say in this. So for the 12h was not in favor of higher I also longed the uj To me, eu is bearish below 1714, until its above.. its bearish below 1680 today..
Uj tp reached
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,292
  • Aug 14, 2025 6:38am Aug 14, 2025 6:38am
Long AJ.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,293
  • Aug 14, 2025 6:39am Aug 14, 2025 6:39am
nice, I enter after the news, I think we have a long way for UJ maybe 150 ?
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #124,294
  • Aug 14, 2025 6:48am Aug 14, 2025 6:48am
The eu is below 1680/81..to me that's a bear b/o. adr about 1624
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,295
  • Aug 14, 2025 6:49am Aug 14, 2025 6:49am
Quoting DMA Trader
nice, I enter after the news, I think we have a long way for UJ maybe 150 ?
I closed, on the tp that was set before the news. It was hit. I probably could of held longer.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,296
  • Aug 14, 2025 3:19pm Aug 14, 2025 3:19pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I closed, on the tp that was set before the news. It was hit. I probably could of held longer.
147.4x area could be support. to add
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #124,297
  • Aug 14, 2025 3:44pm Aug 14, 2025 3:44pm
I bought the chf
8067ish may support
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,298
  • Aug 14, 2025 3:48pm Aug 14, 2025 3:48pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} 147.4x area could be support. to add
I got a live active buy signal on it.. But I think its best to wait for 147.47.. That buy signal may not allow 147.47
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,299
  • Aug 14, 2025 4:48pm Aug 14, 2025 4:48pm
Quoting gatorinla
I bought the chf 8067ish may support {image}
I’ll take a look as well, but there’s a lot to consider with the CHF ever since the 39% tariffs. I’m following a few companies from Switzerland and they will be affected. On the other hand, maybe Trump is just negotiating again, but I think there will be big moves in the CHF in the coming months.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #124,300
  • Aug 14, 2025 4:50pm Aug 14, 2025 4:50pm
Quoting gatorinla
I bought the chf 8067ish may support {image}
I assume you’re thinking a maximum of 30–50 pips, right?
Because from 0.810 there are strong resistances.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
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