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The Swamp

  • #124,261
  • Aug 13, 2025 1:00am Aug 13, 2025 1:00am
Today's S/R
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FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,262
  • Aug 13, 2025 1:52am Aug 13, 2025 1:52am
Quoting Avir
Today's S/R {image}
Good Morning Traders,
Daily:
Still supports upside continuation toward 1.1715–1.1735 unless the intraday overbought pullback deepens below 1.1650.
Hourly:
Bullish but in overbought territory; most oscillators are rolling over. First pullback zones to watch are 1.1667 (DeMark pivot) and 1.1657 (Daily pivot). If those hold, the uptrend can resume.
Combined Take

  1. Bias: Bullish medium-term, but intraday needs to digest gains.
  2. Near-term roadmap:
     • If 1.1667–1.1657 holds → next push to 1.1695–1.1715.
     • If that breaks → deeper retrace into 1.1636–1.1616.

Power Zones

  1. Nearest upside resistance: 1.1690–97, 1.1711–18, 1.1731–38
  2. Nearest downside supports: 1.1663–70, 1.1653–60, 1.1629–36
  3. Trigger idea: Above 1.1718 opens 1.1731–38; below 1.1653 exposes 1.1630–36.

News & Calendar:
Nothing major today.
Live Chart with Pivots & Zones:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/1xPaFXKj/
Have a good day everyone.

FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,263
  • Aug 13, 2025 2:39am Aug 13, 2025 2:39am
Quoting saninvestor
It's very bearish... But not in weekly tf! It's still bullish on it. I have 1.173x/4x as a bounce target if it rise. I don't know if it rise here 146x/4x. Many levels need to break toward 173x/4x.
It's almost there!
More push is expected to test 1735/8 area. 1750 is another one.
It worth trying to find a place for short 1735/175x to me. I don't know if it reject there. I just found there as a tough area to break.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #124,264
  • Aug 13, 2025 3:18am Aug 13, 2025 3:18am
Price is testing 1.1711–1.1713, which is right inside that PowerZone (1.1711–1.1718), with confluence from:

  1. Daily R1 1.1715
  2. Weekly R1 1.1717
  3. Fib 38.2%/50% overlap on higher TFs
  4. Previous structure resistance from July highs

15m Chart:

  1. RSI > 77, well into overbought territory.
  2. Price has broken out from an ascending triangle but is now stalling near measured-move completion.
  3. Momentum (MACD histogram) flattening, possible bearish divergence building if we get a lower high on MACD vs price.

1H Chart:

  1. Still bullish overall, but overbought signals from RSI (~72) and Stochs already in extreme zone.
  2. MACD’s positive slope is slowing — showing momentum fatigue.

Chart Read:

  1. This level is technically a valid short scalp area given overbought conditions and proximity to R1/R2 zone, especially if you’re aiming for a retrace toward 1.1695–1.1690.
  2. A cleaner confirmation would be a 15m close below 1.1708 followed by a retest rejection.

Took a Short @ 1.1712 Target 1.1657 Stop (Hedge ) 1.1755

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FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,265
  • Aug 13, 2025 5:03am Aug 13, 2025 5:03am
Quoting johncen
{quote} almost hit your 1673 as well~
It was above 1575 so the bullish bias was still there. the bullish bias above 1601 was there. Now this b/o has a bullish bias above 1714. Sustained below 1714 can bring a drop.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,266
  • Aug 13, 2025 5:15am Aug 13, 2025 5:15am
Closed my short - I will wait -13 pips for the day
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,267
  • Aug 13, 2025 5:47am Aug 13, 2025 5:47am
1658 is the last LC. It has some gravity. I'm skeptical that it can go much lower than 1680. Thats a large task. It would need to did below 1714. However it does, if bulls aggressively take back 1714 later to close above. It may be going higher. I have the bias higher. The bears not only would need to take 1714. They would need to hold it with closes and large red candles. In that process a wick of maybe less than 50 pips may end up closing above 1714. Something like that observed gives higher more evidence. 1658 may be too far. But if it was to happen. it may quickly take a bounce above 1714. and continue.
Eventually 1714 can be a bull/bear mark. Above it favors bulls.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,268
  • Aug 13, 2025 5:55am Aug 13, 2025 5:55am
Quoting gatorinla
1658 is the last LC. It has some gravity. I'm skeptical that it can go much lower than 1680. Thats a large task. It would need to did below 1714. However it does, if bulls aggressively take back 1714 later to close above. It may be going higher. I have the bias higher. The bears not only would need to take 1714. They would need to hold it with closes and large red candles. In that process a wick of maybe less than 50 pips may end up closing above 1714. Something like that observed gives higher more evidence. 1658 may be too far. But if it was to...
If getting a buy signal 30ish pips below 1714.. that could be a decent one. But its like petting a rattlesnake. If it dont take 1714 back. Selling has the same problem
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,269
  • Aug 13, 2025 6:10am Aug 13, 2025 6:10am
that attraction to 1658 may be pulling.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,270
  • Aug 13, 2025 6:20am Aug 13, 2025 6:20am
Quoting gatorinla
that attraction to 1658 may be pulling. {image}
I got this problem here, sorry bad chart since traveling.
but you can see, we need to close above or sellers will join
Stops bellow 1.17
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #124,271
  • Aug 13, 2025 6:23am Aug 13, 2025 6:23am
the yen looks to have some weakness ..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,272
  • Aug 13, 2025 6:26am Aug 13, 2025 6:26am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} I got this problem here, sorry bad chart since traveling. but you can see, we need to close above or sellers will join Stops bellow 1.17 {image}
Lets see how it plays out. To break your point, it may need to get some wheaties below first. In my thinking the breakout was not getting back to -1575.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,273
  • Aug 13, 2025 7:20am Aug 13, 2025 7:20am
I'm trying to buy around 1660. If its a sharp, fast drop maybe closer to 1580
  • #124,274
  • Aug 13, 2025 9:07am Aug 13, 2025 9:07am
Quoting gatorinla
the yen looks to have some weakness ..
no entry signal, the set up is no longer valid
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,275
  • Aug 13, 2025 9:10am Aug 13, 2025 9:10am
Quoting gatorinla
that attraction to 1658 may be pulling. {image}
not enough time for 1685.. It is set up to take a run above 1714. more so if the 6h , next h closes above 1714.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,276
  • Aug 13, 2025 9:11am Aug 13, 2025 9:11am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Lets see how it plays out. To break your point, it may need to get some wheaties below first. In my thinking the breakout was not getting back to -1575.
I wanted to get some UJ long and hedge a bit the euro but I closed it. Was too obvious. Still waiting on anything not doing much
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #124,277
  • Aug 13, 2025 10:25am Aug 13, 2025 10:25am
the 12h close above 1714, followed by the 6h above. Support may be developing here. It can also be a R if its unable to hold above 1714. I got it as bullish since this is the higher rung above 1575. Even so, it could drop below 1714 some. That happens sometimes before a rise. -30/40 pips may catch a wick. The close at 1714 makes me favor buying the retraces.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,278
  • Aug 13, 2025 12:58pm Aug 13, 2025 12:58pm
Quoting gatorinla
the 12h close above 1714, followed by the 6h above. Support may be developing here. It can also be a R if its unable to hold above 1714. I got it as bullish since this is the higher rung above 1575. Even so, it could drop below 1714 some. That happens sometimes before a rise. -30/40 pips may catch a wick. The close at 1714 makes me favor buying the retraces. {image}
I think there is a good chance to test 1.167, will need to hold for bulls to turn it back
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #124,279
  • Aug 13, 2025 5:36pm Aug 13, 2025 5:36pm
Quoting gatorinla
the 12h close above 1714, followed by the 6h above. Support may be developing here. It can also be a R if its unable to hold above 1714. I got it as bullish since this is the higher rung above 1575. Even so, it could drop below 1714 some. That happens sometimes before a rise. -30/40 pips may catch a wick. The close at 1714 makes me favor buying the retraces. {image}
The day did close below 1714. I need to keep that in mind.. Overnight 1680 ish may be a buy.. Sustained above 1680/81 is bullish to me in the next day or so. It would need to still beat 1714. Since pa did close the day below 1714. Its a touch less bullish.. It may test 1680/81. If it did and bounced back to 1714. A longer green candle closing above may be a b/o. If it broke down below 1680 later tonight.. That would upset my plans. Note if it dont go to 1680 at all.. 1714 is one thing on it own. Now into Thursday a stronger b/o North is sustained above 1727.. Beware if short if a larger green candle closes 1727+.. That may be the taillights..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,280
  • Aug 13, 2025 6:02pm Aug 13, 2025 6:02pm
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Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} I think there is a good chance to test 1.167, will need to hold for bulls to turn it back
I think 1680/81 is a support. But need to allow it to breath. Since pa didnt close above 1714. 1680/81 have some increase in odds. I think its bullish. But it can test the support before rising.. I will treat 1680/81 area as support
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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