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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #12,961
  • Aug 10, 2007 9:13am Aug 10, 2007 9:13am
Quoting emda
flag means a trend continuation pattern

http://www.forexmanual.prv.pl/ch55.html
Thank you sir

Quote
kharvel, you seem like the most calm dude here, and I am not saying this to flater you or something, but it just amezis me the perseverence you have, only to go after small gains but really constant, and you do this with gj which is the most volatile pair, but I think this helps.., how long have you traded? and are you planning to get rich of it or just doing it for fun you seem to have an incredible knowledge of what trading is all about, and the fact that I am just having a newbie aha moment right now has pushed me to ask you this questions, which I hope will not offend you or will you find them to lame to answer to them.
but really now can we make decent money out of it if we have a sound plan? and especilay trading this beast?

First of all,

Thank you for the compliments, but I must set the record straight. I have only been trading roughly 1.5 years now. This is not nearly enough time for me to be considered an expert, as I learn new things EVERY DAY! In this time, there has been one thing I've had ample time to work on, and that is the psychological aspect of trading. While still not perfected, it is true that losses do not bother me, wins are generally standard, and sooner or later trading becomes so routine it's like you're using an EA.

Now, there's a guy on this forum named Spudfyre, and he is MY inspiration. It is HIS method I use. He makes 6 digit salary every year, and only shoots for 20 pips and only trades GBP/JPY. Sound familiar? My trading plan is hardly original(whose is?).

Well, for what it's worth, these are my thoughts, but keep in mind, I'm not the one to seek advice from. Too ripe still, really.
  • #12,962
  • Aug 10, 2007 10:43am Aug 10, 2007 10:43am
Careful on the shorts fellas or ladies, market is being bought for another run prolly 55-60 area MT maybe

Yen was bought pretty good off the dbl bottom and lower channel area
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #12,963
  • Aug 10, 2007 11:04am Aug 10, 2007 11:04am
Quoting OrionsWay
Careful on the shorts fellas or ladies, market is being bought for another run prolly 55-60 area MT maybe

Yen was bought pretty good off the dbl bottom and lower channel area
Do you mean 238.55 - 60 or 255 - 260 lol

Well it fell another 125 since my last post and I got stopped out of my short for for +141 and am currently long from 237.72 so lets hope its 260!!

Regards.

Chris
  • #12,964
  • Aug 10, 2007 12:38pm Aug 10, 2007 12:38pm
Quoting Wolf.
Do you mean 238.55 - 60 or 255 - 260 lol

Well it fell another 125 since my last post and I got stopped out of my short for for +141 and am currently long from 237.72 so lets hope its 260!!

Regards.

Chris

Wolf nice entry, ive dung in myself. yep thats what i was thnking 255-60, yesterday was highest trading volume in 2 years from buyers of the selling maybe a selling climax even, if so Woooooohooooooooo
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #12,965
  • Aug 10, 2007 7:46pm Aug 10, 2007 7:46pm
Greetings all..
I have followed this market via fixed odds betting fior many months and finally come back to spread betting with initial success, alas now stung quite badly.
I admire the discipline guys like kharvell have and only wish to emulate him. my latest cock up was going long at 239.00 and getting stopped at237.20. Greed again. I have been at thuis for 4 years on and off and enjoy this forum .. Have done well from this pair but realise I can learn a lot from guys like you out there. Come too far to give up. My feelings are wait till monday 11am gmt and go long... Not very tech but 242.1 0 is def by Wedensday. Things have slowed down and chart is less responsive to Dow.
  • #12,966
  • Aug 11, 2007 12:40pm Aug 11, 2007 12:40pm
According to my analysis , I use a set of basic indicator, CCI, RSI, MACD, Stoch (multi) next week GU will up !
{Promotion Removed}
  • #12,967
  • Aug 12, 2007 8:30am Aug 12, 2007 8:30am
Hey Guys,

If the Fed cut rates in between meetings, wouldn't the US dollar tank and cause more unwinding of the carry?
  • #12,968
  • Aug 12, 2007 1:47pm Aug 12, 2007 1:47pm
Quoting Islander
Hi Chris.....Thanks, I got my pivot indicator from Dove Alliance on the UJ thread - he just finished a load of posts on using them and they seem to be very useful. TheyŽre reset at 17:00 NY time.

To save clutter, I didnt put the fibbo retrace on my last chart....the first bounce off the M2 level stopped exactly at the 61.8% retrace.

Now, after the data, GJ is still flat just under the pivot. IŽm seeing cable coming to the apex of an almost horizontal triangle ( on 1 min ), euro also just under its pivot and UJ flat on S1 and thereŽs no more important data due out this week, so I guess we may not move far till the US guys come in.
Hi Islander,

After putting the levels back on my charts I have been quiet intrigued by how well the levels have been respected.

On Friday, GJ rebounding short off M2 at around 10:00am UK time and then reversed long off M1 (also L4 and an area of support on my chart).

Interesting to watch the levels in play, previously I had way to much junk on my screen and didn't understand most of what was going. The reason I now trade with just trend lines, channels and my own S/R levels, which has brought about a marked improvment in my trading.

My point really is how much more sense these levels seem to make after placing them back on my charts, something I guess happens as you gain experience.

Not necessarily going to start trading with these, although I will keep one eye on them.

So thanks for bringing them back to my attention.

Regards,

Chris.
  • #12,969
  • Aug 12, 2007 2:15pm Aug 12, 2007 2:15pm
Has anyone seen the recent prices on the currency pairs?? All of the majors and the yens are down quite a bit from Friday's close.. GBP/JPY is down almost 200 pips!!

Check out the prices here: http://www.xe.com/
  • #12,970
  • Aug 12, 2007 2:17pm Aug 12, 2007 2:17pm
Quoting OrionsWay
Wolf nice entry, ive dung in myself. yep thats what i was thnking 255-60, yesterday was highest trading volume in 2 years from buyers of the selling maybe a selling climax even, if so Woooooohooooooooo
Hi Orion,

The volume you mentioned is very interesting, wouldn't it be nice to know whether it is buyers or sellers!

I only have the volume as shown on MT4 via Alpari and I realise it is only calculated on their tick data (would that be correct), is that your source or do you have a better one.

Very high volume on the 27th July and again on friday could this be the longs trying to take charge again, certainly a battle raging.

Bulls or Bears I intend following which ever is in charge.

Regards,

Chris.
  • #12,971
  • Aug 12, 2007 2:21pm Aug 12, 2007 2:21pm
Just that quick, prices are now almost back at the prices of Friday's close. That huge sell-off was a quick one. Something to take note of going into the first few days of trading.
  • #12,972
  • Edited 2:59pm Aug 12, 2007 2:47pm | Edited 2:59pm
Quoting Wolf.
Hi Orion,

The volume you mentioned is very interesting, wouldn't it be nice to know whether it is buyers or sellers!

I only have the volume as shown on MT4 via Alpari and I realise it is only calculated on their tick data (would that be correct), is that your source or do you have a better one.

Very high volume on the 27th July and again on friday could this be the longs trying to take charge again, certainly a battle raging.

Bulls or Bears I intend following which ever is in charge.

Regards,

Chris.

Wolf it was both sellers and buyers But the thing to note is after you see it, where is price, that is the clue, if it was sellers we would be printing new lows. But we put in same amount or close to it on the next daily bar with higher prices. ? is do more come in or more get out at this point. Myself i think they accumulated MUCH on these last few drives lower and will start to unload printing higher prices. I think this open tonight is a buy and will be doing that again.

Volume although not true traded volume, its tick volume is very relavent in as much as true volume. Each chart across the world is virtually identical, so a spread of a bar with a number of volume placed to it whether yours is more or mine is more it should and will show the same activity on any platform and that activity is what we are concerned with, Who makes such extreme volumes>>>>>>>Professional activity. Thats what we want to follow

They should be slowing movements down yet though if carry is back on for a while to collect the differential. May need to be nimble may just need to slip into a coma for a period
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #12,973
  • Aug 13, 2007 1:47am Aug 13, 2007 1:47am
The short Sunday session and the fact that my broker opens his MT4 charts at 17:00edt - 1.5 hours after the actual open in Auckland - means that I have to manually calculate the pivots for today... I use this calculator
http://www.mypivots.com/education/to...ot-calculator/

Dove Alliance has just made some good posts about pivots etc on the UJ thread...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...34254&page=159

After the wide swings and high volatility of last week we can expect a few days of more normal trading until the next big news shock kicks the market back into wild action.

So far this morning, the Europeans have put in a nice bounce off the 39.00 level and its heading for the last small resistance around the 39.65 level and above that is M3 exactally at the 240.00 level....next to see what the Brits do after the London Open
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #12,974
  • Aug 13, 2007 1:59am Aug 13, 2007 1:59am
HereŽs my 5 min chart of the action so far....the bounces off the lower dashed yellow bands were good for 60+ and the last bounce off the 39.00 level for nearly 50. The pivot is at 238.76 with M2 at 37.90 and M3 at 40.00
Attached Image
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #12,975
  • Aug 13, 2007 2:52am Aug 13, 2007 2:52am
When it started to stall under the 39.65 mini high, I drilled down to the 1 min chart to watch the action.....it pulled back to the 200 ema (green) and then the Brits started to sell, so I joined them and took 60 pips as price hit the lower yellow band at the the 38.50 level.

There was little follow through and the low so far is at 38.13, so IŽll wait to see if another sell sets up around the pivot at 38.76
Attached Image
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #12,976
  • Aug 13, 2007 4:10am Aug 13, 2007 4:10am
Quoting OrionsWay
Wolf it was both sellers and buyers But the thing to note is after you see it, where is price, that is the clue, if it was sellers we would be printing new lows. But we put in same amount or close to it on the next daily bar with higher prices. ? is do more come in or more get out at this point. Myself i think they accumulated MUCH on these last few drives lower and will start to unload printing higher prices. I think this open tonight is a buy and will be doing that again.

Volume although not true traded volume, its tick volume is very relavent in as much as true volume. Each chart across the world is virtually identical, so a spread of a bar with a number of volume placed to it whether yours is more or mine is more it should and will show the same activity on any platform and that activity is what we are concerned with, Who makes such extreme volumes>>>>>>>Professional activity. Thats what we want to follow

They should be slowing movements down yet though if carry is back on for a while to collect the differential. May need to be nimble may just need to slip into a coma for a period
Hi Islander,

Thank you for the reply and usefull information, you have made it all much clearer.

Cheers,

Chris.
  • #12,977
  • Aug 13, 2007 4:57am Aug 13, 2007 4:57am
Quoting Wolf.
Hi Islander,

Thank you for the reply and usefull information, you have made it all much clearer.

Cheers,

Chris.
NP....I hope you got in on the sell off the pivot.......worth over 120 pips down to S1 as GJ followed cable down, before bouncing towards the 38 handle, then another 120 as GJ followed UJs drop.....

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #12,978
  • Aug 13, 2007 5:08am Aug 13, 2007 5:08am
Just in case you didnt see it.....
Attached Image
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #12,979
  • Aug 13, 2007 5:27am Aug 13, 2007 5:27am
Firstly Orion please accept my apology for getting your name wrong in the above post it was actully meant for you so thanks again.

Islander apologies to you to and thanks for replying I was about to reply to you as well, hence the reason I got confused (I get confused easily LOL) and thanks for the links.


So thanks to you both for posting it is very much appreciated by me and I am sure many others.

Regards,

Chris.
  • #12,980
  • Aug 13, 2007 6:08am Aug 13, 2007 6:08am
So it over-shot S1 and went for yet another 50 level, its third in just over an hour - 4:57 the 38:50, 5:18 the 37.50 and finally 6:15 the 36.50 and as I type its back at the 37.50. As we have the 38% fibo of this mornings range at 37.70 and the 50% at 38.04, I think weŽll test those rather than stop at the 37.50.....weŽll see
Trading Levels with WRBs
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