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  • #15,641
  • Aug 11, 2025 10:54am Aug 11, 2025 10:54am
The EUR/USD reached 1.1590 after an unsuccessful attempt to rise above 1.1678 this morning. This was likely due to soured market sentiment and expectations of sticky US prices. It appears the downtrend could continue, with a potential move lower to the weekly S1 at 1.1545. The weekly pivot at 1.1622 should cap any upward moves, but a shift in sentiment could see the pair rise above it to 1.1650.

I believe the pair will consolidate around 1.1600 as it awaits new economic news.

It was great sharing my views with everyone, have a great rest of the day!
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  • #15,642
  • Edited 12:18pm Aug 11, 2025 11:24am | Edited 12:18pm
The price will go up today. Local low price is on the past.
Several fat bears did exit on the 1.16180-1.16280
At the last 2 hours incomed weak bears (from 1.15930)
Bears is not stronger.

And the bulls are in no hurry to enter
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  • #15,643
  • Aug 11, 2025 2:56pm Aug 11, 2025 2:56pm
Formed resistance line (during 4 hour) by bears on the level 1.16125
From this line the price can go down or up. Not looked powerful bulls but the bears also hide.
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  • #15,644
  • Aug 11, 2025 4:00pm Aug 11, 2025 4:00pm
Local LOW is nearest. I am prefered go gown on the first 3-4 hours and will to do analyze in the morning.
  • #15,645
  • Aug 11, 2025 4:10pm Aug 11, 2025 4:10pm
The morning is wiser than the evening. Dark deeds are done at night.
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  • #15,646
  • Aug 11, 2025 4:18pm Aug 11, 2025 4:18pm
Forecast for this or next week
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  • #15,647
  • Aug 11, 2025 8:18pm Aug 11, 2025 8:18pm
Bear did well yesterday but really pa is stuck in the middle waiting for cpi to determine direction.

for now pa is consolidating below weekly pivot. Usdx closed above 98.40 and at 98.50 level which is good for eu bear / dollar bull.

bear needs to break below 1570-90 to confirm resume of the down trend.

bull needs to be above 1650-70.

I dont know what to expect
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #15,648
  • Aug 11, 2025 10:29pm Aug 11, 2025 10:29pm
After dropping from 1.1675 yesterday, the EUR/USD pair found support above its previous low of 1.1590. It's currently trading near the weekly pivot point of 1.1622.

A sustained move above 1.1622 could see the pair test the 1.1650 level. However, if the upward momentum falters, the pair may fall back to 1.1600. A break below 1.1590 would open the door for a further decline, with 1.1545 becoming the next potential target.

Have a great day!


Daily volatility (range) 56 pips

Option expiries for Tuesday: 1.1500 (EU1.47b), 1.1650 (EU1.11b), 1.1575 (EU817m) source: financialjuice.com

Significant news - US CPI

1H
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  • #15,649
  • Aug 12, 2025 1:41am Aug 12, 2025 1:41am
the thread gone very quiet today haha everyone waiting for cpi
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  • #15,650
  • Aug 12, 2025 1:47am Aug 12, 2025 1:47am
Quoting johncen
the thread gone very quiet today haha everyone waiting for cpi
Haha! Its always like this before a major release. Bulls seems not done yet!
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  • #15,651
  • Aug 12, 2025 1:53am Aug 12, 2025 1:53am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Haha! Its always like this before a major release. Bulls seems not done yet!
yea i expect consolidation before the news so bull will be supported i guess.
if no cpi i would probably expect some further south with the current set up but with nfp in mind…. I m not sure if we will see another “manipulated” data….

better stay away
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #15,652
  • Aug 12, 2025 1:59am Aug 12, 2025 1:59am
Quoting johncen
{quote} yea i expect consolidation before the news so bull will be supported i guess. if no cpi i would probably expect some further south with the current set up but with nfp in mind…. I m not sure if we will see another “manipulated” data…. better stay away
Maybe just mixed results and then PPI & US Retail sales on focus before Trump - Putin meeting. The last theme should take the weekend and next week!

Edit: and never ever forget the GER ZEW Sentiment!
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  • #15,653
  • Aug 12, 2025 2:06am Aug 12, 2025 2:06am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Maybe just mixed results and then PPI & US Retail sales on focus before Trump - Putin meeting. The last theme should take the weekend and next week! Edit: and never ever forget the GER ZEW Sentiment!
haha i guess market will probably ignore that or very limited movement!

yea neutural cpi is also possible, just as expected.

i still expecting EU to go further south to at least 1.12 once before deciding where to go. But i dont know when this will happen and under what circumstances
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #15,654
  • Aug 12, 2025 2:17am Aug 12, 2025 2:17am
Quoting johncen
{quote} haha i guess market will probably ignore that or very limited movement! yea neutural cpi is also possible, just as expected. i still expecting EU to go further south to at least 1.12 once before deciding where to go. But i dont know when this will happen and under what circumstances
Choppy or direct move down. Sold or waiting the news? I'm short yet!
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  • #15,655
  • Aug 12, 2025 2:24am Aug 12, 2025 2:24am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Choppy or direct move down. Sold or waiting the news? I'm short yet!
pa still very choppy now so i dnt have any confirmation at this stage… but let see.

maybe not now but later in the year
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #15,656
  • Aug 12, 2025 2:39am Aug 12, 2025 2:39am
Quoting johncen
{quote} pa still very choppy now so i dnt have any confirmation at this stage… but let see. maybe not now but later in the year
Then a drop below 1515/00 might help as this weekly chart dictates! I'm waiting for it! If fed hold at September meeting probably will cut next year then. Unemployment is low in US - in this scenario EU can reach even 1.1000.
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  • #15,657
  • Aug 12, 2025 2:55am Aug 12, 2025 2:55am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Then a drop below 1515/00 might help as this weekly chart dictates! I'm waiting for it! If fed hold at September meeting probably will cut next year then. Unemployment is low in US - in this scenario EU can reach even 1.1000. {image}
no cut this year is possibly unlikely haha Trump will threaten to fire Powell so will limited any bearish move. I am expecting hawkish tone after a potential cut
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #15,658
  • Aug 12, 2025 3:03am Aug 12, 2025 3:03am
Quoting johncen
{quote} no cut this year is possibly unlikely haha Trump will threaten to fire Powell so will limited any bearish move. I am expecting hawkish tone after a potential cut
Trump cant fire me! So I can say, depending on data always. Trump can only threaten to fire Powell until the end of his term. But can influence the market!

Fed can cut 0.50% if things look ugly.
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  • #15,659
  • Aug 12, 2025 3:12am Aug 12, 2025 3:12am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Trump cant fire me! So I can say, depending on data always. Trump can only threaten to fire Powell until the end of his term. But can influence the market! Fed can cut 0.50% if things look ugly.
which would not be a good news for eu bear
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #15,660
  • Aug 12, 2025 3:23am Aug 12, 2025 3:23am
Quoting johncen
{quote} which would not be a good news for eu bear
Short term the us jobs market and us inflation. Longer term...cant think about it now
Also geopolitics and oil will play a role to eu strength.

Must watch: ECB might turn dovish again.
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