Blue's Clues to Trading: Timing Levels and Behaviour of Price

Blue's Clues to Trading : TIMINGS LEVELS BEHAVIOUR OF PRICE

“YOU HAVE EVERYTHING YOU NEED, STARTING FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT RIGHT NOW, TO GO ANYWHERE THAT YOU WANT TO GO IN YOUR LIFE."

I thought of putting this in Trade Journals,,but this is not a trade journal...
I thought of putting this in Trade Systems but this is not a system..
This is just a thumbnail sketch of how I view the market...How my charts
are set up and all about Timings Levels and Behaviour of Price.

Which is what I see this thread as ...Simply a place to share some thoughts and ideas around TLBoP.
And so I will go thru some background to help give some context to what I’m
looking at which hopefully helps explain my charts and my views.

The basis of my methods/setups are anchored in AMT Auction Market Theory with thanks to Stacey Burke, Tom Hougaard, Al Brooks et al. I have learned and implemented many of their ideas concepts etc into “my way”......

Everything on the charts, in my eyes, revolve around 3 things
TIMINGS / LEVELS / BEHAVIOUR of PRICE (Volume is incl.)

What's on my charts...

They always start with a Fixed Interval(s) They are a 15 minute OR/Opening Range and a 1 hour IB/Initial Balance and IB expansion/extension levels.

These are set to the CME open of whatever market im trading Gold 820 Oil 900 ES 930 etc

Next is Daily/Weekly/Monthly Highs/Lows/Closes(settlement) I toggle these on&off as to keep charts as clean as possible

I have separate indis for Monthly/Weekly/Daily VWAPs...I normally only have session/daily VWAP toggled on.

The way I view my trading is simply:
AMT that is anchored into my foundation of Timings/Levels/Behaviour of Price

I haven't posted much about my use of VWAP/AVWAP or even Volume Profile... But it is a vital part of my methods.

I endeavour, strive to keep my biases very flexible and fluid and short term...I do not predict... I only trade what the MGI-Market Generated Information is telling me that day that moment.

Which is ,,,Where is Fair Value,,Is the market balanced or Imbalanced,,,Is it in price discovery.

I have come to terms with the organized randomness of the markets and recognize the market can do anything at anytime.

The organized part is what I focus on and that is first and foremost the Markets
are nothing more than a 2way auction process that constantly seeks Fair Value.

And as the market moves to find Fair Value it will go thru various phases of Price Discovery.... This is important,,,As the market seeks Fair Value it will
print MGI and that is where we begin our process of decision making thru our rules derived from MGI>>>TLBoP...

This business is tough and requires a high degree of skill to be successful and I recognize that means something different to us all. But we need to be realisitic and understand what we are up against...

The majority of the market is “Non-Retail” and will take all your willing to give.
So it is of my opinion one needs to understand the basics of the flow..and that
boils down to the Auction process...
Fair Value/Balance,,,Price Discovery/Imbalance

If one can align themselves with the flow of the market,,,then I believe one can enhance their performance of whatever method you are using..from a 5min ORB to MA cross methods etc etc..an endless list.

Some may just use say,,,a 20 a 50 and a 200MA and thats cool with me.
They can all be powerful levels on the various Tfs....

Their is no “RIGHT” way,,,it’s simply what works for you... How can you make sense of it all and thus make good decisions that extended outcome reflects.
I am simply showing “what makes sense to me” For some it may be way to much others may see hey you need to Mas, Cdelta, monitor the DOM, oscialltors etc etc etc.. Thanks but NO THANKS

Anyways that’s more than enough for now Will get around posting up some charts as a picture can tell a thousand words and I am at 680 now ...

Cheers
Blue

Some charts of the ES from Thurs Aug 7th and Fri Aug 8th

Quoting bluesteele

Disliked

Blue's Clues to Trading : TIMINGS LEVELS BEHAVIOUR OF PRICE “YOU HAVE EVERYTHING YOU NEED, STARTING FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT RIGHT NOW, TO GO ANYWHERE THAT YOU WANT TO GO IN YOUR LIFE." I thought of putting this in Trade Journals,,but this is not a trade journal... I thought of putting this in Trade Systems but this is not a system.. This is just a thumbnail sketch of how I view the market...How my charts are set up and all about Timings Levels and Behaviour of Price. Which is what I see this thread as ...Simply a place to share some thoughts and ideas...

Ignored

Youhave been trading for how long sir..
Please don't be annoyed sir

Well I started paper trading as a young teenager around 1980.... I would use the stock quotes from the daily newspaper
to plot line charts on graph paper..Some from the VSE and NYSE...Opened up my first brokerage account when I was 19ish.
$3k and I turned that into 9k in a week or so. Lost it all and ended up owing the broker money.

Back in the day when you had to call the broker to place your orders etc...

Traded off and on after that loss..licking my wounds...Picked up from where I left off in 1996 or so...with TC2000
scanning stocks on my PC and have been trading steady since then.

Blown numerous accounts,,have traded Stocks options forex futures.

Gold and ES are my two main markets of late...Sometimes Oil and havent been trading cattle lately.
I get spread to thin and find I just cant focus on too many moving parts...

Two markets with different openings an hour apart let me focus intently on each... Sometimes I
will be in both markets,,sometimes not

Here's some gold charts from last weds.

Somethings to be said about the Initial Balance that I have observed over the years.
This pertains to the Behaviour of Price.

Quite often price will respond the next day or even days after to firstly the Open...then the IBH IBL and 50% level.
As well price will respond to the previous day(s) Extension levels. I dont have explicit rules around these as they are more like an
unconscious competence. They are in the background but can give important context to a trade setup. Will find an example
or two and post later.

Hey Kev

Wishing you all the best with the thread mate

Andy.

Thanks Andy !

Now to really confuse some lol..lets throw a little more into the mix...

Some Oil charts. Simply showing Volume Profile along with VWAP.

Now I could take the 15m ORB trade long blindly on the close..Or I could have some very compelling
reasons to go MAX into the trade and ADD as the market. All breakouts are not the same and with a
low probability I (speaking for myself) need reasons to sometimes avoid taking the trade and as well
know when I have probabilities stacked in my favour...

I dont have a high WR nor do I desire to...It's relatively meaningless to me... What I do strive for
is a High Expected Value... Thats whats important..and setups like these can literally make your month.

I think that's enough for today Alot of info alot of charts...

Simple does work and we dont always need ALL the tools in our toolbox.
Knowing when and where and how to use our tools is obviously important.

A good example from End of Month ES trade... Market put in all time highs in Globex
If one was paying attention to the Opening Price level you may get the idea that shorting
is a good idea ...Whatever your entry model..

I do believe in Simplicity and many times one can do well with simple ways. But even that
takes awareness and experience to recognize these opportunities.

Again the right tools for the right job.

Another "Behaviour" to take note of is a Previous Days Equity Open and you will find times
where the next days price is pushing into the Previous Open but cant close past that level...Or has weak
closes/PA above it and cant sustain above that Open,,, Nuances to observe !

I remember that.... Worden TC2000 sounded like a souped up car.

If I'm not mistaken, in the early 2000's it was called Worden 2007, and then around 2009, it became Worden 2000.

The Worden 2007 was a stand alone software and you had to download the data each night at end of day. It was a great screening software, though.

Worden Brothers 2007.

Also tried Omnitrader, Visualtrader, Sharescope EOD amongst others...........

98 to 2000ish scanning small midcaps... $1-$5 with 52week high lows in same parameters... Volume and market cap can't recall..

It was just looking for charts trading in a channel in a range between 1 and $5... Only taking buys. I did fairly well doing that.. cash out. Find another stock repeat... And eventually built a small basket.

You know with all these platforms they have nowadays Robinhood etc... I may have to look at this again

Wade Cook
"The money is in the meter drop" . Devoured his books

IBD ... Loved that newspaper had a subscription for years and learned a lot from William O'Neill....

Anyways I started off the week with a loss. One trade and done..

As stated above I started off the week with 1 trade and 1 loss.
It went long gold on the break of the 15m ORB and 1hr IB.
I explain on the charts why that was foolish...

Trading when one is not fully alert,,,was my cup of tea today
The good thing is after years of beating my head against the wall...
I handle losses quite well...and move on. If I screw up once I generally just
close the terminal and call it a day.

Anyways here's a few charts with some notes..

Today the LEVEL got me.


Attachment g

i entered same trade and SL hit.. learning

could u please write little bit more about 8 and 9pm trades, bcz i have only time to trade on this time window. i have been trading but mixed result

One thing I learned from Stacey Burke is Hindsight pays.
Because Hindsight becomes Foresight...actually Lance Breitstein has said the same thing.

And what it boils down to is simply Setups...Simple repeatable setups... When you see them you take them.

I've had the problem of having too many setups and too many charts.. I personally cant do it....
maybe because im getting older..or simply dont want to attack the market from all angles..I dunno..

But now I only have a handful that I use daily..All around the 8am -11 am timing window
predominatley all based off the 15m ORB and 1 hr IB...But sometimes I will be in a position at 8am NY
or shortly therafter... Mostly RoadMap laura type trades....Oil usually..

BUT what im getting at is how important it is to have clear and concise setups...If this Then That scenarios and rules.

Ive talked about the Open and the IB 50% level etc....and heres some more examples.

It does not matter what market you trade these levels,,,these concepts work across the board.

Hi Mr777,,,,
nothing wrong with mixed results,,,that is normal.

hmmm...Couple of things... First you need to find what resonates with you.
Scalps,,session trades, swing trades etc etc...

Can you hold onto a winner etc ...You need to ask yourself who you are as a trader...
Because we are all different...and no one will trade the same system the same way.
I dint care if it has explicit rules...Humans have a way of fudging things up..

Youve made an important point of you have limited time 8-9pm if I understand.

For me I'm looking at PA..sort of the basis for ALL... secondly I am looking at
VWAP anchored to the 6pm Globex Open...and for those trades I am
looking for price discovery trades mostly in Asia... Which means a trend to jump on.

I would recommend Chris Drysdale..he has a simple way of explaining Fair Value
and Price Discovery etc..He scalps the NY Open... But the principles apply to all markets all times.

Stick around and I will publish some chart setups, over time, for the 8-9pm Asia times...

Heres a few charts quickly that all have good opportunities. I think if a trader can understand that
the market is a simple Auction that is constantly seeking Fair Value you will have a leg up

Cheers

**** Extra pointer for those following The IB Initial Balance levels 820-920am NY Gold 900-1000 NY OIL
930-1030 NY Indices....The extension levels the IB sets are VALID for 24 hours until the next days session,
The first 2 OIL charts show that

And now back to my GBP JPY roots since this is "Forex" Factory....

LEVELS 00 25 50 75 00

How does PRICE BEHAVE at these LEVELS at TIMING ???

Man o' Man Can it be this Simple ?

The Charts never cease to AMAZE me !