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Why do they say that trends don't work?

  • #81
  • Aug 10, 2025 7:16am Aug 10, 2025 7:16am
Quoting Merka
{quote} Good definition. What about if you entered where you have your arrows and immediately after trend will reverse? Did it happen to you and how do you managed it? Cheers
Of course it happens, just because you see trend is trying to start, does not mean it will, but probabilities are, that if trend starting on 5 Min TF the way I am showing it with H/H or L/L, you may start looking for the hourly to enter into it. I manage my trades with statistically significant MM and with controlling MindFuck(Fear and Greed).
  • #82
  • Aug 10, 2025 8:58am Aug 10, 2025 8:58am
Quoting RickM
Therefore what time frames and tools do you guys think provide the best trends (Risk & Reward)?. My Vote is for the two minute chart trading VWAP fades and breakouts breakouts on the intraday charts. My second Vote would be the 1 Hour Chart if trading Bollinger Band squeeze breakouts. What time frame and tools do you guys like? What about trending markets? My Vote for favorite markets would be breakouts on NQ, Gold or Bitcoin . Then there is those naked trader looney's. What time frame trends work best here (Fade's included)? How about you guys?....
I prefer intraday trading.
I'm looking at Monthly weekly and intraday VWAP levels mostly from the S&P and NQ.
Then also 5min and Tick chart NQ and some stocks in the NQ like Apple and the other big ones (compressed 30min) and in general the overview condition of all weighted stocks in the NQ.

I think that can give me a good advantage to see the developing "trends" or if it's a fading environment. It's basically to see the intraday nuances pattern.

Order flow often failed me in this task, i think my developed method is much better to spot "trends" for a whole session.
  • #83
  • Aug 10, 2025 11:15am Aug 10, 2025 11:15am
A trend is merely higher highs and higher lows going up and vice versa going down.

The only question is the entry point, or the "signal" if some kind of a mathematical model is involved.

Everything else is a pure guess based on an instantaneous movement of the price that works only for smallest targets with any degree of reliability.

It is that simple.
  • #84
  • Aug 10, 2025 4:49pm Aug 10, 2025 4:49pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} Of course it happens, just because you see trend is trying to start, does not mean it will, but probabilities are, that if trend starting on 5 Min TF the way I am showing it with H/H or L/L, you may start looking for the hourly to enter into it. I manage my trades with statistically significant MM and with controlling MindFuck(Fear and Greed).
Well stated and one of the big things (that only come with time), is your instinct. You know what your looking at and why.
Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
  • #85
  • Aug 18, 2025 4:14pm Aug 18, 2025 4:14pm
Quoting RickM
Therefore what time frames and tools do you guys think provide the best trends (Risk & Reward)?. My Vote is for the two minute chart trading VWAP fades and breakouts breakouts on the intraday charts. My second Vote would be the 1 Hour Chart if trading Bollinger Band squeeze breakouts. What time frame and tools do you guys like? What about trending markets? My Vote for favorite markets would be breakouts on NQ, Gold or Bitcoin . Then there is those naked trader looney's. What time frame trends work best here (Fade's included)? How about you guys?....
Charting done via the 4h, 1h, 5m and entries for short-term trades are entered on the 1m. Works well in EURUSD.
Longer tf charting for swing trades: I'll take note of and mark meaningful S/R areas.

IMHO I have never improved my trading using indicators, I guess I'm a "looney". Not usually a naked trader, but I do use naked charts ...If I was to use indicators (or setting up a bot which I started playing with recently) I'd consider using ATR/ADR, EMA, and RSI's, but they do not help my trading as of this writing after years of experimenting.

Someone said post your entries/exits... these are today for a couple hours, sloppy entries and exits, but very profitable.
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"Wisdom is proved righteous by its works"
  • #86
  • Edited 10:18am Aug 19, 2025 9:18am | Edited 10:18am
Quoting RickM
Therefore what time frames and tools do you guys think provide the best trends (Risk & Reward)?. My Vote is for the two minute chart trading VWAP fades and breakouts breakouts on the intraday charts. My second Vote would be the 1 Hour Chart if trading Bollinger Band squeeze breakouts. What time frame and tools do you guys like? What about trending markets? My Vote for favorite markets would be breakouts on NQ, Gold or Bitcoin . Then there is those naked trader looney's. What time frame trends work best here (Fade's included)? How about you guys?....
First, in my case, I'm using custom 12-hour candles (MT4 platform), starting at midday during the London session on an H1 chart. And with technical aspects in mind concerning VWAP (typical or MVWAP) and Volume (tick) Profile, together with price gaps from M1 to Daily.

Second, I woud try to see the price movement in relations to my current or pending postions (plotted or existing) if these things coincides with the strength of the currency (base vs quoted)... and it's highly correlated pairs or instruments on some current periods (e.g. from M30 to H4, H1 to D1, etc...).

Earlier, with the EUR/USD... I could have closed my buy positions since my take profit was 1.16950, but I got busy and couldn’t monitor them. Typically, I watch the market during the midday London session, keeping in mind some technical considerations, and then I look for opportunities to enter a reverse position (which is my usual approach). In this instance, I could have entered a short during the midday London session and target enough pips at a certain level with greed in check.

My chart after missing my previous TP (1.16950) with just a hairline. Current TP is 1.17050
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I currently have buy positions and plan to wait until enough sellers enter the market (bite the bait). However, I might be the one getting the bait though ; )—

I hope that the price will reach near or just above my take profit (TP) level of 1.7050. Once it reaches that level, I will look for sufficient buyers before deciding to sell (with some technical aspects in mind), or I may choose to observe the market first.

Then, my chart below with adjusted stop loss and take profit, confidently added a position near the VWAP, although this was contrary to my usual approach that I mentioned above. It means my earlier positions could have been closed already and went to sell right after during the midday London session and entered a short position(s) (with my technical aspects in mind) and TP near the VWAP, or probably target price gap(s).
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...
a few minutes later...
...
Not sure if I'm truly confident or just like "The fool on a hill - a song by The Beatles" ; )— as I continue to add buy positions, and even adjusted my SL much near to my average price positions.
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...
In my current trading style, I don't look for trends. Thus, I can't say for sure "Why do they say that trends don't work?", but Trends seems effective in retrospect.
And maybe the same goes for my trading approach ; )—
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #87
  • Aug 19, 2025 11:03am Aug 19, 2025 11:03am
I think a very common mistake, made by many people, is that they imagine that trends are something fixed and objective and immutable and that it really means something related to the market if they observe that (for example) "EUR/USD is trending up, right now".

What they don’t take into account, often, is that it’s very normal for any forex pair or other financial instrument to be trending in one direction on a specific timeframe, and at the same time ranging or even trending in the other direction on a very different timeframe.

So if they are trading from a 5 minute chart they might observe, correctly, that EUR/USD is rising, while if they looked at the weekly chart it can be falling pretty steadily, every day.

In other words, a "trend" only really exists inside a specified chart speed or timeframe.

Many people don’t take this into account.
  • #88
  • Edited 8:15am Aug 20, 2025 7:47am | Edited 8:15am
Quoting v2vboni
{quote} ...
...
...
Earlier, with the EUR/USD... I could have closed my buy positions since my take profit was 1.16950, but I got busy and couldn’t monitor them. Typically, I watch the market during the midday London session, keeping in mind some technical considerations, and then I look for opportunities to enter a reverse position (which is my usual approach). In this instance, I could have entered a short during the midday London session and target enough pips at a certain level with greed in check. My chart after missing my previous TP (1.16950)...
Here’s an update on what I shared yesterday:
I have added more positions... I primarily base my trading decisions on the midday London session and other factors I shared in my previous post. During this time, I aim to capitalize on the reversal of the 12-hour candle close. While I maintained my initial position and added to it, anticipating a reversal.

As you can see, I don't seem to focus on the trends, whether they work or not. I think it depends on the type of trader and trading style you adopt. Although correlations with other pairs seem like a trend-following strategy, I use it differently in conjunction with currency strength.

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Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #89
  • Oct 26, 2025 4:44am Oct 26, 2025 4:44am
Here is an update with A.I.

Why Everyone Is a Trend Trader (Even If They Don’t Realize It)

When you hear the term “trend trader,” you might picture someone who only buys when the market is going up or sells when it’s going down. But here’s a provocative idea: every trader is a trend trader—whether they admit it or not.

The Universal Truth of Trading

No matter how you enter a trade—contrarian, breakout, retracement, or any other style—your profit depends on one thing: price must move in the direction of your take profit. That movement, by definition, is a trend. It doesn’t matter if it lasts for a minute or a month, or if it happens on a 1-minute chart or a weekly chart. If you want to make money, you need price to trend your way.

Labels Don’t Change the Reality

  1. Contrarian traders might pride themselves on “going against the crowd,” but their profits still require a reversal—a new trend in the opposite direction.
  2. Breakout traders wait for price to escape a range, hoping to catch the start of a new trend.
  3. Retracement traders enter against the prevailing move but ultimately need the main trend to resume for their trade to succeed.

No matter the label, the outcome is the same: you need a trend to hit your target.

Timeframes Are Just Zoom Levels

Some traders scalp for a few ticks, others hold positions for weeks. But both are waiting for price to move in their favor. The only difference is the scale and duration of the trend they’re trying to capture.

Even “Range” Traders Need Trends

You might think range or mean-reversion traders are the exception. But even they need price to move—however briefly—in their direction. Without that micro-trend, there’s no profit.

The Bottom Line

At the heart of every trade is the hope (and need) for price to trend toward your take profit. It doesn’t matter how you enter, what you call your strategy, or which timeframe you use. All traders are trend traders, because all profits depend on price moving in your direction.

So next time you hear someone say, “I’m not a trend trader,” remember: if they’re making money, they’re riding a trend—whether they know it or not.

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #90
  • Oct 26, 2025 8:43pm Oct 26, 2025 8:43pm
Quoting Erebus
Why do they say that trends don't work when in fact, for anyone to have a profitable trade, price must move in their desired direction, that is a trend however short isn't it? (The 2nd ever A.I. generated discussion on FF, let's use logic people) You’re absolutely right to challenge that claim—and you've hit on a critical nuance many overlook. The Truth Behind “Trends Don’t Work” When traders say, “trends don’t work,” they’re usually referencing: Failed breakout expectations (e.g. expecting a rally that fizzles) Trend-following strategies...

Very well said. The problem is not with trends but with how traders define and approach them. Many confuse consolidation pullbacks with trend failures. In reality, every winning trade rides some kind of directional momentum, even if it lasts only a few candles. The real edge lies in recognizing which timeframe the trend truly belongs to.
https://topasiafx.com
  • #91
  • Nov 13, 2025 3:13am Nov 13, 2025 3:13am
Four breakouts that you already missed this week
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1. Combination of last Thursday, Friday, and weekly highs.
2. Monday high.
3.Tuesday high.
4. Wednesday high.
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #92
  • Nov 14, 2025 12:37am Nov 14, 2025 12:37am
Quoting Dominique-T
I think a very common mistake, made by many people, is that they imagine that trends are something fixed and objective and immutable and that it really means something related to the market if they observe that (for example) "EUR/USD is trending up, right now". What they don’t take into account, often, is that it’s very normal for any forex pair or other financial instrument to be trending in one direction on a specific timeframe, and at the same time ranging or even trending in the other direction on a very different timeframe. So if they are trading...
Well said buddy,

A lot of traders get caught up thinking "trend" is some universal truth, when in reality it’s always relative to the timeframe you’re looking at. What looks like a strong uptrend on the 5-minute chart can be nothing more than a small pullback in a bigger downtrend on the daily or weekly. That’s why multi‑timeframe analysis is so important because, it gives you context and helps you avoid trading against the bigger picture.

Your explanation really nails why people say -trends don’t work. It’s not that trends don’t exist, it’s that traders often forget to define which trend they’re talking about. Thanks for putting this so clearly- it’s a reminder that trading is all about perspective.
  • #93
  • May 14, 2026 8:34pm May 14, 2026 8:34pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Ask / Bid imbalance leads price 90% of occasions till a big player sweeps the market with a large market order. However the only practical way to trade with level 2 data is to based your trade decisions around important price levels then follow strong delta away from levels. Here is an example of how a bullish trend starts. On a DOM, count the amount of Asks above price in the first 10 levels and then the amount of Bids below price in the first 10 levels. Using ES (US500), there may be 1700 Asks above price and say 1600 Bids below price....
impressive .
Wish u make some videos
  • #94
  • Last Post: May 15, 2026 3:30am May 15, 2026 3:30am
Quoting Erebus
Why do they say that trends don't work when in fact, for anyone to have a profitable trade, price must move in their desired direction, that is a trend however short isn't it? (The 2nd ever A.I. generated discussion on FF, let's use logic people) You’re absolutely right to challenge that claim—and you've hit on a critical nuance many overlook. The Truth Behind “Trends Don’t Work” When traders say, “trends don’t work,” they’re usually referencing: Failed breakout expectations (e.g. expecting a rally that fizzles) Trend-following strategies...
Just as a son can’t be his own father, we can’t measure the strength of a trend within the same timeframe we’re using for entries. It’s a multiple‑timeframe game.
For Gold, NY session offers superior tradability compared to London.
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