Attachments: Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

#15,261
Aug 7, 2025 3:17pm Aug 7, 2025 3:17pm

BenjaminIs
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts

August 7, 2025

Moscow Confirms Historic Putin-Trump Meeting As BRICS Firestorm Nears
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers

A forewarning new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today first noting President Donald Trump told European leaders yesterday that he intends to meet with President Putin in person and later hold a trilateral meeting with Putin and unelected Ukrainian Dictator Vladimir Zelensky, says top Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov then announced this morning that Moscow agreed to the historic summit, which will take place next week, and added: “I’d like to note that the venue, too, has been agreed in principle and will be announced a bit later”.

Following the meeting President Putin held with President Trump’s special envoy Steve Witcoff yesterday, this report notes, Secretary of State Marco Rubio assessed: “I think what we have is a better understanding of the conditions under which Russia would be prepared to end the war...We now have to compare that to what the Ukrainians and our European allies, but the Ukrainians primarily, of course, are willing to accept, and announced: “President Donald Trump will decide whether to impose secondary sanctions on Russia’s trading partners within the next 24 to 36 hours”.

Immediately after Secretary of State Rubio announced the timeline to decide if the United States was going to impose secondary sanctions on Russia’s trading partners yesterday, this report continues, President Trump lashed out at BRICS Alliance founding member India by doubling their tariffs to 50%—India denounced the move as “extremely unfortunate”, while pledging to protect its national interests—India then canceled a $3.6 billion deal it had with American aircraft company Boeing—and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced his plan to visit with BRICS Alliance founding member leader Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Quickly after Prime Minister Modi announced his plan to visit with President Xi yesterday, this report details, President Trump threatened BRICS Alliance founding member China with new tariffs—a threat followed by President Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” taking effect, about which the leftist New York Times observed: “President Trump’s new tariffs on virtually every U.S. trading partner are a significant step forward in his attempt to reorder global trade, leaving some of the hardest hit governments scrambling to respond on Thursday”—and President Trump posted the notice earlier today: “IT’S MIDNIGHT!!! BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN TARIFFS ARE NOW FLOWING INTO THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!

The attempt by President Trump to reorder global trade, this report notes, is an actual war, about which is factually observed: “Donald Trump has expressed implacable hostility to the BRICS grouping of non-Western powers, threatening its 10 members and other partner states with additional tariffs because of the bloc being supposedly anti-American”—and it has also been factually assessed: “The 10 BRICS members now comprise more than a quarter of the global economy and almost half of the world’s population...According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, after 2045, the size of the economies of the BRICS+ countries will exceed the economies of the G7.

Far from the BRICS Alliance being anti-American, this report concludes, its sole purpose is to promote economic independence free from Western threats, as exampled by the news today: “India and Russia have discussed ways of strengthening their economic partnership, focusing on cooperation in rare earths, aircraft parts manufacturing, and railways”—BRICS Alliance founding member leader Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva just proposed a BRICS leader meeting and warned: “Trump is trying to dismantle multilateralism and promote unilateralism, where he negotiates one-on-one with other countries, allowing the US to maintain the advantage...What bargaining power does a small Latin American country have against the United States?... None”—a warning followed by top Russian lawmaker Senator Alexey Pushkov observing about the global economic firestorm fast nearing: “Brazilian President Lula intends to convene BRICS leaders to develop a joint response to Trump’s tariffs...If a coordinated response is reached, this will mark a new turn in the hidden confrontation between BRICS and the US, one that Trump’s policies sought to prevent”.

[Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no counterpart.]

https://www.whatdoesitmean.com/mtd21.png
https://www.whatdoesitmean.com/mtd22.png

August 7, 2025,

EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition that it is linked to its source at WhatDoesItMean.com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.

[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ have been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exemplified in numerous places, including HERE.]

[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green (1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]

[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]

American Brain Prize In War For Attention Meets Media Apocalypse

Orwellian “Two Minutes Hate” Collides With “Overton Window” Fracture

Return To Main Page

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

#15,262
Aug 7, 2025 3:45pm Aug 7, 2025 3:45pm

BenjaminIs
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/...s-tariff-mania

https://www.zerohedge.com/images/logo/full.svg

Jim Quinn Questions Tariff-Mania
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden

Thursday, August 07, 2025 - 06:25 PM
Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform,

Tariffs are going to make America Great Again!!!!
Our deficit problems will be cured. The national debt will decline. Our fiscal nightmare is over. Right?
Trump is so excited, he can’t sleep. He’s boasting about the billions in tariff revenues at midnight.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=PFmSUoAP

He ain’t wrong. The chart below clearly shows the massive surge in tariff revenue generated by his policies since taking office. The total tariff revenues in the 6 months since he has taken office are $120 billion, versus the $50 billion taken in those same 6 months in the prior year. Based on current trends, Trump’s tariffs could bring in close to $400 billion on an annualized basis. Not too shabby compared to the $100 billion taken in the years before his new tariffs.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=YIBAP-yN

Trump isn’t bashful about hyping what he believes are outstanding achievements, like quadrupling tariff revenues and forcing those foreign countries to “pay their fair share”. The numbers don’t lie, but a little perspective on the scale and ultimate impact of these tariffs may be helpful.

The national debt is on course to increase by $1.9 trillion this fiscal year ending 9/30/25. It is up $700 billion since Trump took office. The Big Beautiful Bill didn’t cut one dime from the budget. The national debt will increase by about $2 trillion in the next fiscal year, and the one after that, and the one after that, and the one after that. You get the picture. Increased debt until economic collapse.

The national debt will increase by approximately $5.5 billion per day forever, because the spending is on autopilot. Trump and your corrupt congress maggots have no intention of cutting any spending. A recession, war, or another fake pandemic would just drive the spending higher. So basically, the $300 billion in added tariff revenue will be frittered away by your government in less than 2 months. And if Trump goes through with his tariff rebate idea, the revenues will evaporate quicker, not that we should mind having the money in our pockets, rather than Nancy Pelosi’s and Chuck Schumer’s.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=RPHonL8t

I know the Trump cheerleaders and social media influencers have been ecstatic that the tariffs have not created the dreaded surge in inflation predicted by the Fed and other economic “experts”. As the chart clearly shows, the tariffs have only been in place for 4 months. Does anyone understand that the inflation impact is going to lag the implementation period? Does anyone understand that there are only two possibilities regarding these tariffs? – Either the corporations buying the goods wholesale eat the increase and decrease their profits, or they pass along the price increases to the customers.

In the first case, corporate profits will decline, and the stock market (at all-time highs and valuations) will likely decline significantly. In the more likely case, the corporations will pass the price increases to their customers, generating an increase in inflation and further robbing the average household of their spending power. Of course, Trump will instruct his new head of the BLS to fake the CPI number even more than it is already faked, to hide the real inflation caused by his tariffs.

I think a personal anecdote I’ve experienced will show you the devious methods corporations will use to pass these tariffs along. I have been buying a pack of coated paper plates at Walmart for years. The pack contained 70 paper plates. Within the last four months, the pack was reduced to 50 plates for the same price. They know the average dolt, after years of government schooling, is deficient in math skills, so they would not realize they just experienced a 40% increase in price per plate. This will show up nowhere in the fake BLS numbers. Shrinkflation is just as bad as inflation, but they can hide it and pretend all is well, while maintaining their profits.

Tariffs sounded great on the campaign trail. Foreign countries were taking advantage of the U.S. through unfair trade practices. Trump’s threats and follow-through on those threats have forced concessions from dozens of major trading partners. But his threatening rhetoric hasn’t worked on China, Brazil, India or the other BRIC countries, as they maneuver to replace the U.S. ruling economic empire. And now using tariffs/sanctions against Russia, China, and India to force Putin into an unacceptable peace plan with Ukraine/NATO is rhyming with FDR’s oil embargo on Japan in 1941.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=ynLpkKxe

The unintended consequences of his actions are yet to be revealed, but ultimately these tariffs should be judged by their overall results, rather than the intentions and narratives surrounding them.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Want to know more?
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...&itok=myar0zDJ
Trump Says Americans Could Get Dividends From Tariff Revenues
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=jv40DY5S
Trump's Global Tariff Breakdown: Full Country-By-Country Rate List
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=AOzK7eHC
Trump Calls India & Russia "Dead Economies" After Tariff Standoff

NEVER MISS THE NEWS THAT MATTERS MOST
ZEROHEDGE DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX

Receive a daily recap featuring a curated list of must-read stories.

https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east...l+glasses1.png Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2025 meeting?

View market
When healthcare was healthy

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...%2858%29_0.jpg

Healthcare is now underperforming the broader index by the largest margin in nearly 25 years. Its weight in the index has fallen to a multi-decade low, investor positioning is in the 8th percentile, and valuations are scraping the bottom. When sentiment is this depressed, it often doesn’t take much to spark a turnaround. Can healthcare get great again?

Taking a Bite: Buying Rotten Apple at Peak Pessimism
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu..._imresizer.jpg

The chart below shows the rolling 90‑day performance of AAPL versus the NDX. Apple has underperformed the NDX by ~20 points over the past three months — one of its weakest 90‑day stretches of relative performance in the last 20 years. AAPL’s underperformance is the setup, not the story. With sentiment washed out, we are in for a bounce trade.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...18.16%202.jpeg
No structural sunrise
While we admit European equities have been a great trade (and somewhat of a love story for us), we do struggle to see it as a structural story. History shows Europe can beat the US — but it rarely lasts more than a quarter or two. There are many worrying datapoints that would support that Europe’s had its quarter in the sun — but that there is no structural sunrise.

Checking In on That Sweeney Top
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu..._imresizer.jpg

Still valid, but...
Last week we issued a "Sweeney Squeeze Top" sell and backed it up with 10 + 10 reasons. Now obviously this was not the ultimate call for an forever top but much more of a tactical trading call. Let's examine the latest data-points on sentiment & positioning over the weekend to see how valid the short-term sell-call is. Conclusion? Still valid, but...

Sign Up For ZH Premium

#15,263
Aug 7, 2025 4:03pm Aug 7, 2025 4:03pm

BenjaminIs
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/...gher-education

https://www.zerohedge.com/images/logo/full.svg

Morehttps://www.zerohedge.com/images/icons/triangle.svg

ZeroHedge Reads

Scholars & Schemers: How The Left Ruined Higher Education
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden

Thursday, August 07, 2025 - 05:40 PM
Authored by William Anderson via The Mises Institute,

Despite denials from the left, US higher education has been captured by leftist faculty, students, and administrators. This is not a figment of anyone’s imagination, as for most of this century, colleges and universities have changed dramatically.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=Z7Q9zcJR

Anyone who has been to college in the past half-century would attest to what then was called the “liberalism” of most of their professors, and, in the post-World War II era, the probability that one’s professor was a registered Democrat has been high. Yet, this is not what we mean by the “radicalizing” of American higher education, for even those professors who classified themselves as “liberals” and faithfully supported the Democratic Party would not have considered themselves to be radicals.

However, there also were demands for academic integrity 50 years ago, and certainly most of my professors at the University of Tennessee (1971-75) would have given at least a good effort to place their academic role above politics. In fact, I cannot recall being subjected to any politicized curricula—and I was a journalism major during the Watergate crisis, which practically invited politics into the classroom.

This does not mean that professors didn’t have political opinions or that the university itself was free of politics. I’m sure that most of my professors were Democrats, but I don’t remember any of them attempting to influence my political views (which, at best, were a mishmash of a lot of nonsense). There were, however, the effects of the cultural revolution that had begun before I went to college were already taking hold on the language, such as calling freshmen “freshpersons” and chairman a “chairperson.” For most of us, these things were eye-rolling but not harmful. Furthermore, if some of us insisted on using the term “freshman,” there was no attempt to impose a campus-wide shaming campaign.

Today, the situation is very different. Higher education has been thoroughly politicized to a point where even if things were to turn around today, it would take an entire generation before things could be where they were even 30 years ago. There are no academic areas left in higher education that have not been corrupted by leftist thought.

Alleged Racism in Mathematics
Take mathematics, for example. Those of us who have slogged through a couple of levels of calculus and higher-level statistics have found no racial, sexual, or otherwise connotations in taking derivatives or feeding a spreadsheet to run statistical regressions. Yet, according to our leading minds in academe, math is racist. To be sure, the critics have concentrated upon the history of mathematics—or, to be more specific, who was involved in the development and teaching of math—but the fact that racial minorities often score lower on standardized math tests means that the way the discipline is taught suffers from racism.

Thanks to the leftist bias in colleges, school districts like Seattle have declared that math itself perpetuates racism:
Seattle’s new proposed math curriculum will take US public school math instruction where no one has gone before.
Students will be taught how “Western Math” is used as a tool of power and oppression, and that it disenfranchises people and communities of colour. They will be taught that “Western Math” limits economic opportunities for people of colour. They will be taught that mathematical knowledge has been withheld from people of colour.

The Left Declares that Science, Too, Is Racist
If math is racist, then so is science. Granted, the term “scientific” was co-opted by progressives who used it to promote eugenics, which was pseudo-science. However, although eugenics was the preferred view of science by progressives, the anti-racist movement still holds onto progressivism, its adherents not appreciating the irony behind their ideological views.

But rejecting eugenics and related pseudo-sciences is not behind the latest push to declare science itself as racist. Instead, because much of modern science was developed in Europe and the United States, science as we know it is “colonialist” and, therefore, racist, according to the journal Nature, which declared in an editorial:
We recognize that Nature is one of the white institutions that is responsible for bias in research and scholarship. The enterprise of science has been — and remains — complicit in systemic racism, and it must strive harder to correct those injustices and amplify marginalized voices.

Understand that there is nothing wrong with trying to expand scientific knowledge and find ways to better present its truths to audiences that include racial minorities, as well as encourage more people from racial minorities to seek science careers, but that is not what the editors at Nature were advocating. Instead, they were claiming that scientific knowledge itself is tainted with racism because of the racial backgrounds of many people involved in scientific fields, making the results of their research unacceptably corrupt. Likewise, the Smithsonian declared that simple concepts like being on time, working hard, and looking to the future are racist, along with the development of “linear thinking” and “cause-and-effect,” which are foundational in the scientific method, also are racist.

How Did It Come to This?

Only someone locked up in the uber-abstract world of academe would claim that engaging in cause-and-effect thinking is racist and should be condemned, or that a person’s sex is something randomly “assigned at birth.” As one who was involved in the infamous Duke Lacrosse Case, I saw firsthand the madness that came from members of the Duke faculty that insisted that there was no objective truth, only “social constructs” that were dependent upon race and politics, with one professor, Karla Holloway, implying that it didn’t matter if the accused players raped anyone or not, since they should be guilty, anyway.

The academic world is full of this nonsense, of obtuse language, twisting facts, and denying reality itself, and, as we saw in the Duke case, the more “elite” the institution, the more that nonsense is treated as truth. But how did higher education, which was supposed to be an institution in search of truth, become the place where such things are demoted to the position of a “social construct”?

To find that answer, we look back to the 1930s when Italian communist Antonio Gramsci realized that Western institutions (and especially Christianity) would not permit the kind of violent revolution that installed communism in the Soviet Union:
Gramsci believed that the conditions in Russia in 1917 that made revolution possible would not materialize in more advanced capitalist countries in the West. The strategy must be different and must include a mass democratic movement, an ideological struggle.

His advocacy of a war of position instead of a war of movement was not a rebuke of revolution itself, just a differing tactic – a tactic that required the infiltration of influential organizations that make up civil society. Gramsci likened these organizations to the “trenches” in which the war of position would need to be fought.
This war, however, would not be fought with guns but by infiltrating Western institutions, which the German radical student Rudi Dutschke described as the “long march” through these institutions, or what Gramsci called a “war of position”:
Gramsci spoke of organizations including churches, charities, the media, schools, universities and “economic corporate” power as organizations that needed to be invaded by socialist thinkers.

The new dictatorship of the proletariat in the West, according to Gramsci, could only arise out of an active consensus of the working masses—led by those critical civil society organizations generating an ideological hegemony.

As Gramsci described it, hegemony means “cultural, moral and ideological” leadership over allied and subordinate groups. The intellectuals, once ensconced, should attain leadership roles over these groups’ members by consent. They would achieve direction over the movement by persuasion rather than domination or coercion.

In higher education, we know the rest of the story. By 1970, some universities had established programs in “women’s studies,” and then the rest of the identity studies followed. These programs were different from traditional academic programs like English, history, or economics, for they existed to create a leftist narrative regarding people and society. Thus, they created a pathway for radicals to become part of college faculties without having to engage in graduate studies that contained academic rigour. Indeed, most of the 88 professors at Duke University who had signed an inflammatory, guilt-implying statement published in the Duke Chronicle were employed in the identity studies departments, while others were in liberal arts. Only two were in math, one in sciences, and none in the law school.

I looked at the publishing records of many of the signees who were tenured, and most of them had very weak academic credentials which, had they been in departments like economics, would never have gained them tenure. However, because people in these “study” areas believe that what in the past was called “academic excellence” is now another form of white supremacy (read the Smithsonian chart), they have no problem with turning their classes into propaganda sessions and their students into screaming activists.

One would think that college administrators and others on the faculty would see through these things, but any kind of opposition—quiet or otherwise—to these “studies” has quickly been shouted down, and no professor wants to be publicly labelled racist or sexist or homophobic. The reason is that during the period from the early 1970s to the present, the liberal arts and humanities became politicized, first with the Vietnam War and the Richard Nixon presidency, and later with the rise of Ronald Reagan in the White House.

As English, history, psychology, sociology, and other disciplines became increasingly politicized, the development enabled the activist-oriented identity studies departments to become increasingly influential on campus. It was here that higher education became an unholy mixture of what I call scholars and schemers.

For many of us who taught in higher education and also published research papers in academic journals, we took the three “legs” of our duties seriously—teaching, research, and service. Teaching and research are self-explanatory, while service involves things like advising, serving on department, college, and university-wide committees. For example, I chaired the university’s Promotion and Tenure Subcommittee for three years and was able to convince the administrative and faculty leadership to change our qualifications for tenure.

The schemers, on the other hand, are more likely to eschew quality publications and use their positions on committees to push through measures related to “sexist language” or something related to one’s “preferred pronouns.” Even before the COVID-19 epidemic and subsequent lockdowns, the schemers were especially active, demanding that every course syllabus contain their versions of social justice, with each professor expected to bring “anti-racism” into their classrooms. Their student acolytes followed suit with similar demands.

For example, at my former employer, the English department ordered professors not to count off grammatical errors by black students because, in the minds of the department’s leaders, that would be racist. It was not that they were trying to make assignments easier for black students, but rather they were claiming that racism itself was built into the structure of the English language, so to promote English grammar would be the same as promoting bigotry.

Why didn’t the scholars just say no? Some of them did and found themselves on the receiving end of social justice mobbing via social media. During the Duke Lacrosse madness, Duke faculty that did speak out against the rush to judgment became targets of vengeful activist faculty members, who attempted to intimidate anyone who might disagree with them.

In the world of scholars and schemers, it is hard for the former to fight back against the latter.
First, and most important, these two groups have very different viewpoints of their jobs as faculty members.
Scholars believe their job is to introduce students to bodies of knowledge and to pursue research that reflects their areas of expertise.
Schemers, on the other hand, see their job as turning students into social justice activists by propagandizing them. Anyone who might object is immediately labelled a racist or worse, and there is always an army of angry social media ready to pounce on the dissenter. The social justice warriors, after all, are saving the world by fighting racism and opposing capitalism. Anyone who opposes them by definition has bad motives.

In the end, the scholars continue their work, albeit by keeping their heads down and trying not to be noticed. Gramsci’s conquest of higher education is nearly complete, and soon enough, scholars will be a tiny minority in American colleges and universities and in time, will likely disappear altogether.

Copyright 2009-2025 ZeroHedge.com/ABC Media, LTD

#15,264
Aug 8, 2025 12:48am Aug 8, 2025 12:48am

BenjaminIs
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts

Resilient, Self-Reliant Life Is Hard
August 6, 2025
Every single thing that increases resilience and self-reliance is impossible.

This reader's email cut through the clutter: "I'm seeing multiple sites and people that give great insight into what's wrong with our society and economy etc but what I'm looking for is more information regarding how to protect and prepare myself and those that I care about."

I've been addressing how to forge a more resilient, self-reliant life since 2009 when I published Survival+. More recently, I wrote a brief guide to Self-Reliance in the 21st Century.

But quite frankly, talking about a resilient life of self-reliance feels like being a street-corner preacher: few are actually interested in pursuing self-reliance, and even fewer are willing to make the dramatic life changes required to actually become more resilient / self-reliant.

The reason is that it's hard, and it's hard for several reasons. One is the work itself is demanding; there's nothing easy about the work or the learning-by-doing. Second, in a culture and economy devoted to comfort, convenience, novelty, attracting attention ("engagement") and status signaling, resilience requires swimming against this immense tide of marketing and "well, if everyone else is pursuing all this, it must be valuable, so I'll pursue it, too."

My perspective is based on systems and common sense, but it comes across as doom-and-gloom because we naturally want to believe (and be reassured) that everything we depend on is permanent and solid.

So let's consider every megalopolis / urban sprawl in the nation, where the majority of people live and work. Cities no longer produce much of anything. Their primary economic activities are: tourism, entertainment (amusing ourselves by spending money), real estate (gaming the RE bubble), credit/banking (expanding the debt bubble), healthcare, the higher education industry (that lives off $1.5 trillion in student loans) and a wide spectrum of complexity work: marketing, compliance, work-flow optimization, insurance, forms / payments / applications processing, oversight, issuing credentials and so on, tasks that are necessary in an overly complex system that depends on the ceaseless expansion of debt to fund itself, but which produces little of what we need to live.

This describes my job as a writer, too, of course. As someone wisely pointed out a few years ago, "We can't eat an iPad," nor can we eat the words or images on the screen.

If a Carrington Event fried the electronic / digital circuitry running all this, life would go on, albeit with some initial difficulties. But if water, food and fuel vanish, life doesn't go on.

With writing and all that other stuff gone, I'd revert to doing work that doesn't require digital assets: repairing stuff with hand tools, growing food, teaching kids how to grow food, preparing food for elderly folks, etc. Life goes on.

This immensely complex concentration of humanity has no more than a few days of actual life essentials such as food and fuel on hand, and the systems of re-supply have been optimized to the point of fragility: the entire system is tightly bound and heavily centralized, i.e. stripped of redundancy and resilience.

Author Charles Perrow invested his career in explaining how such tightly bound centralized systems are vulnerable to what he called normal accidents, not Black Swans or aliens landing, just the everyday routine things that break or fail and trigger consequences. The problem is the more tightly bound, centralized and optimized the system, the more catastrophic the potential consequences.

Once we grasp this, common sense suggests removing ourselves from this nexus of vulnerability. But when I suggest that maybe moving out of the city might be a wise risk-reduction move, the response is as if I'd suggested moving to a penal colony in the asteroid belt.

In other words, every single thing that increases resilience and self-reliance is impossible. Only eating real food? Impossible. Getting healthy without supplements, "wellness" clinics, gyms, etc.? Impossible. Limiting screentime on all devices? Impossible. Reducing expenses? Impossible. Growing some of your own food? Impossible. And so on. Everything's impossible until there's no other option. And then it's too late.

When you're thirsty, it's too late to dig a well.

Self-reliance is not self-sufficiency. My definition of self-reliance is: the less you need, the easier it is to get what you need. We all need industrial products: gaskets, valves, saw blades, spare parts, high-grade steel, fertilizer, concrete and a thousand other highly specialized bits and pieces. The point of self-reliance isn't to attempt self-sufficiency; the point is to reduce risks and vulnerabilities by reducing our needs and increasing our productive capacity for the essentials of life.

This is why I suggested in my book Global Crisis, National Renewal that maybe it would be wiser to focus on rebuilding and maintaining our national ability to produce these essentials rather than focus on boosting "growth" of throwaway consumption by borrowing more from the future.

The less we need, the easier it is to get what we need. Let's say one household can get by perfectly well on 10 gallons of gasoline a month and another household needs 100 gallons a month just to survive. Which is easier, getting 10 gallons or getting 100 gallons? The same can be said of water, food and income.

The other part of self-reliance is figuring out how to be productive on our own. In my book Get a Job, Build a Real Career, I lay out an alternative to the credential / accreditation hamster wheel: accredit yourself. Is that easy? No, like everything else in self-reliance, it's hard--but ultimately rewarding.

In a money-wealth obsessed culture, the "solution" to all problems is to pile up money / wealth. But all this "money" in whatever form is simply a means to buy what somebody else produced. Wouldn't it be better to be the producer rather than the buyer?

Put another way: gold can be stolen or expropriated. Dirt--no so much, and skills--not at all. Stealing dirt is difficult, and unless the thief knows what to do with the dirt, i.e. how to actually grow food, the dirt is worthless. Food doesn't grow itself. It takes a lot of work and experiential knowledge. But it's highly satisfying in ways that few have ever experienced in our Ultra-Processed Life.

My definition of Ultra-Processed Life: Ultra-Processed Life replaces an authentic experience with a synthetic, simulated, commoditized, highly profitable version that's superficially attractive but destructive / debilitating.

So 70% of our food is now ultra-processed, and we wonder why we're burdened by chronic lifestyle diseases?

https://www.oftwominds.com/photos2024/Roper.png

There is nothing easy, comfortable, convenient, novel or status-enhancing about living a resilient, self-reliant life. It's hard, demands sacrifices and often tedious work with little immediate reward. The system we inhabit makes it difficult on every level.

Now that I've offended or pissed off everyone, please excuse my derangement. It's the meds. Yeah, the meds. I just need some Substance D and I'll be fine.

"A healthy homecooked family meal and a home garden are revolutionary acts." (CHS, May 2008)

"You don't miss what you no longer want." (CHS, August 2008)

"Food is wealth, health is wealth, energy is wealth; all else is illusion." (CHS, December 15, 2008)

"Meaningful work and meaningful skills make a meaningful life, even if the work is unpaid." (CHS, March 6, 2009)

"If you like eating, begin liking dirt." (CHS, April 6, 2009)

"The Mobile Creative credo: trust your network, not the corporation or the state." (CHS)

Check out my new book Ultra-Processed Life and my updated Books and Films.

Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com

Subscribe to my Substack for free

#15,265
Aug 8, 2025 9:57am Aug 8, 2025 9:57am

BenjaminIs
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts

https://www.goldcore.com/blog/gold-t...c-implications

Gold Tariffs: A Market Shock with Systemic Implications

By Dave Russell

August 8, 2025, 12:15 PM EDT

https://news-img.goldcore.com/sites/...1-1024x576.jpg

Earlier, the Financial Times reported a development that has surprised the international gold market: U.S. Customs & Border Protection (CBP) has ruled that one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars, the standard units for delivery on New York’s COMEX futures exchange, are now subject to import duties. The ruling reclassifies these bars under a tariffable customs code, triggering a record intraday spike in U.S. gold futures and a rare triple-digit premium over London spot prices. Switzerland, the world’s gold refining hub and a major supplier of kilobars to the U.S., is at the centre of this disruption.

This is not just a technical change. The implications touch on global trade flows, the mechanics of futures markets, and the credibility of the dollar as the anchor of the financial system. Over the coming days, we will be monitoring legal clarifications from CBP and responses from exchanges, but the immediate market reaction underlines the seriousness of the issue.

The Classification Conundrum
The CBP’s letter states that kilo and 100-ounce bars are to be treated as “semi-manufactured” rather than “unwrought” bullion. The former is tariffable under current policy, while the latter had been understood to be exempt. This interpretive change lands squarely on the bar sizes most entwined with COMEX delivery. Tariffs applied to a product that also serves as a settlement asset in a major derivatives market magnify the impact.

Swiss Industry Response
The Swiss Precious Metals Association notes that the 39% tariff applies globally, not just to Swiss exports. While supporting regulatory clarity, it warns the measure risks disrupting international flows.

Is the USA about to monetize its gold? Here’s how.

Error or Intent?
Some believe this may be a mistake. Classifying widely used wholesale bars as “semi-manufactured” interrupts the smooth functioning of a market known for efficiency. If the move is deliberate, a structural premium for “loco New York” bars relative to London and Asia is likely, reducing COMEX’s relevance for hedging and price discovery. Market share could shift toward other settlement venues over time.

Futures Market Plumbing at Risk
The issue is not confined to gold. When governments alter the cost or movement of deliverables in physically settled contracts, basis spreads widen, hedging becomes less efficient, and liquidity may shift elsewhere. This precedent could introduce policy risk premia into other commodity contracts if classification or tariff policy changes unexpectedly.

Download Your Essential Checklist
https://news-img.goldcore.com/sites/...-1-212x300.png

Implications for the Dollar
The dollar’s influence extends beyond government securities to dollar-denominated settlement systems. If deliverables within those systems are politicized, users may gradually shift to non-U.S. benchmarks, eroding credibility over time.

Investor Guidance
This episode reinforces the case for holding allocated, physically held gold. Jurisdictional diversification can reduce policy and logistics risk. Physical metal does not reclassify itself overnight, and in times of policy friction, its strategic value increases.

Whether this decision is reversed or entrenched, the message is clear: policy risk now sits inside the deliverable of a benchmark U.S. futures contract. This is bigger than gold, and it is a reminder that even an unassuming asset can become central to global finance when the rules change.

Buy Gold Coins

https://news.goldcore.com/wp-content...r-5.jpg?x28079

Buy gold coins and bars and store them in the safest vaults in Switzerland, London or Singapore with GoldCore.
Learn why Switzerland remains a safe-haven jurisdiction for owning precious metals. Access Our Most Popular Guide, the Essential Guide to Storing Gold in Switzerland, here.

Receive Our Award Winning Market Updates In Your Inbox – Sign Up Here

About Author
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/c...e8f7e?s=96&r=g
Dave Russell
David is the CEO of GoldCore. Until Summer 2023, he was the Director of Marketing and Communications, responsible for all marketing and communications strategies and branding. David joined GoldCore in 2008 as Director of Business Development and later took over as Director of Marketing and Communications in 2020. Before this, Dave managed and operated his own Marketing Agency and completed multiple coaching qualifications. "Working for GoldCore gives you a fantastic lens through which to view global financial and geopolitical developments. I am very proud to be part of a company that contributes to increasing investors' understanding of these developments." When he’s not at work, David is passionate about sailing and has completed the ‘Round Ireland Yacht Race’ twice.

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

#15,266
Aug 9, 2025 7:25pm Aug 9, 2025 7:25pm

BenjaminIs
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts

https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2...Wz9kNc0NUK9shc
Money With Marzan
6,322 subscribers
Subscribed
https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2...RmYvW7uC58qBrE
I have some bad news for Bitcoiners.

https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2...NZsGzJGLITUr1k
Marjanul Islam

I Explain The Global Market & Make It Digestible

August 9, 2025
Do you know Andreas Antonopoulos?
If not, then you surely know Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy, the Bitcoin treasury company.

You’ve probably heard Saylor’s lectures on Bitcoin and been mesmerized by his depth of knowledge. His deep understanding led him to acquire more than half a million Bitcoin.

But do you know from whom Saylor learned about Bitcoin?
From Andreas Antonopoulos.

When almost no one understood Bitcoin, Andreas did. He gave hundreds of lectures around the world.

Do you know Saifedean Ammous, the author of the famous book “The Bitcoin Standard”?
Do you know where he learned about Bitcoin?
From Andreas Antonopoulos.

For several years, Andreas was the face of Bitcoin when hardly anyone was talking about it. But since 2019, he has stopped giving talks and public speeches on Bitcoin.

Do you know why the most famous preacher of Bitcoin stopped preaching?
It’s because he completed his thesis. His understanding of Bitcoin was finalized; he had nothing more to add.

He realized that the history of human civilization is the history of inflation and currency devaluation.

The length of an empire is from sound money to sound money.
An empire is established on sound money, then slowly starts inflating its currency. After several decades, the currency loses 99% of its value and the empire collapses. Then, a new empire emerges again on sound money.

That is the history of almost all empires — the Roman Empire, the Byzantine Empire, the Spanish, the Dutch, the French, the British, and the current American empire.

If an empire accumulates vast amounts of debt and keeps devaluing its currency heavily, you can be sure it is in the last stage of its rule. Within decades, the currency will collapse, and a new one will take over.

This is pure monetary history, not fantasy.
Andreas understood not only the history of money but also the history of technology.

When electricity was first introduced in Paris, newspapers claimed people would be electrocuted in the streets, dying in the thousands, and that electrification was a myth. 2 centuries later, can you imagine life without electricity?

When cars first appeared, the media wrote, “Who will use this noisy machine that can’t even run on mud?” They forgot that an entirely new road system would soon be developed to accommodate cars.

That’s what fundamental technology does — it doesn’t adapt to society; society and infrastructure adapt to it. The same story applies to computers, the internet, and information technology.

Not long ago, in 2018, many media outlets began writing about how AI had failed to generate returns even after companies invested billions in it — just 7 years before today’s AI boom.

Bitcoin is such a fundamental technology. It is a true change in the monetary structure for the first time in 500 years, on the same scale as when physical gold was converted into paper tokens — what we now call fiat money.

Bitcoin is making people’s lives cheaper and more affordable because it cannot be inflated away. If it could be inflated by any central authority, it would never be as valuable as it is today. Bitcoin protects value by preventing any party from inflating it.

Bitcoin is also the ultimate example of the free market. It has no marketing officer. No one is forcing you to use it. It’s pure market forces in action. And the free market will always win against closed systems — that’s how humanity progressed from caves in Africa to where we are today.

It’s because of the free market that the USSR failed and the USA prevailed.

Bitcoin is 100,000 times better than its main competitor — Bonds.

Bonds are essentially valueless; they are the biggest Ponzi scheme in history.

A bond is a promise by a government that has no income and cannot produce surpluses, whereas Bitcoin is a currency backed by energy and protected by the world’s most powerful computational network.

The competition between bonds and Bitcoin is like a running race between me and Usain Bolt.

The free market will always choose the superior option — and it is choosing Bitcoin. Give it more time.

Today, Bitcoiners complain about why governments or companies like Google and Meta haven’t bought it. Are Bitcoiners becoming foolish?
I think so. They’ve stopped studying. They don’t understand physics, history, philosophy, or economics.

If you study deeply, you will become as calm as Andreas Antonopoulos — or as calm as Satoshi Nakamoto himself.

No one has more stake in the Bitcoin network than Satoshi Nakamoto. He has 1.1 million Bitcoin.
What did he say about Bitcoin?

“If you don’t get it, I don’t have time to convince you.”
Satoshi knew exactly what he created.

He saw the endgame. At the dawn of the 2008 financial crisis, he foresaw trillions of dollars in printing. He knew that when those trillions flooded the system, people would look for a safe place to store value. That’s why he created Bitcoin.

Satoshi is calm because he understands it. Bitcoin will make you calm too — it’s an escape from anxiety, but only when you deeply understand it.
So stop worrying and start studying — not Bitcoin, but the history of money, technology, physics, philosophy, and economics.
Be like Andreas Antonopoulos, not like Jim Cramer.

https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2...qGHAfT-bq0xfiQ

However, empires used to be localized back in the Roman, French, and Dutch eras, unlike now, where almost every country or even all are based and all are globalized. So I don't understand as a student how the current "collapse" could take place, and will or be the future of fiat, is CBDC ( central bank digital currency) is that's what you are hinting towards, the new birth of a new system? Because I fundamentally agree that sound to sound fiat will always rise and burn like an inevitable cycle. What do you think the new Fiat will look like?

https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2...Wz9kNc0NUK9shc
Money With Marzan
Read & Make Money

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

#15,267
Aug 14, 2025 9:29am Aug 14, 2025 9:29am

BenjaminIs
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts

Big Inflation miss as PPI is .9% just for July 2025.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

#15,268
Edited 3:26pm Aug 14, 2025 3:09pm | Edited 3:26pm

BenjaminIs
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc250814/

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

President, Hussman Investment Trust

August 2025

I can show precisely that there are two warranted prices for a share. The one I prefer is based on such fundamentals as earnings and growth rates, but the bubble is rational in a certain sense. The expectation of growth produces the growth, which confirms the expectation; people will buy it because it went up. But once you are convinced that it is not growing anymore, nobody wants to hold a stock because it is overvalued. Everybody wants to get out, and it collapses, beyond the fundamentals.”
Franco Modigliani, Nobel Laureate, March 30, 2000, New York Times

Across more than four decades of navigating market cycles, sharing weekly or monthly market commentaries the entire time, I’ve had multiple opportunities to write about speculative bubbles and their subsequent collapse, in real time.

Neither the market collapse that followed the peak of the tech bubble in 2000, nor the crisis that followed the mortgage bubble in 2007, was particularly unusual in terms of the losses that followed those extremes. The notable thing, from the standpoint of our investment discipline, is that both were obedient. History has rarely afforded bubbles a life span of more than a decade, and neither the tech bubble nor the mortgage bubble that followed it was an exception. People who dismiss everything I say with “permabear” don’t seem to realize that the reputation earned by navigating decades of full cycles well, before the current bubble, is the reason investors know my name in the first place.

In that context, it’s nice that despite maintaining a negative market outlook here, we’re looking more like our former selves. We’ve done just fine relative to the S&P 500 since adopting our September 2024 hedging implementation, which allows us to vary the intensity of our investment stance even amid the most extreme market conditions, leaving us much less reliant on market direction. For more on that hedging implementation, see Asking a Better Question, Subsets and Sensibility, and the section titled “The Martian” in The Turtle and the Pendulum.

We do prefer a certain amount of market fluctuation to a diagonal advance in a hypervalued bubble, as we’ve seen in recent months. Yet even as I discuss what I view as the third great speculative bubble in U.S. history – beyond both 1929 and 2000 – it’s important to recognize that nothing in our investment discipline relies on a market collapse, a reversion to historically normal valuations, an erosion of profit margins, a narrowing of fiscal deficits, an end to reckless Fed interventions, or even any particular forecast or scenario. I expect this bubble to end in tears. But if it doesn’t: We. Don’t. Care. Because nothing in our discipline forces us to care.

A bubble is a mathematical object

The defining feature of a bubble is inconsistency between expected returns based on price behaviour and expected returns based on valuations. If investors pay $150 today for a security that will deliver a single $100 payment a decade from now, but they also fully understand that they’ll lose 4% annually on the deal, without extrapolating past gains into the future, then we might say the security is overvalued, and we might question why investors would accept that trade, but we can’t call it a bubble.

But if investors pay $150 today for that security, because they look back in the rear-view mirror, decide that it ‘always goes up’ over time, and convince themselves that expected future returns are always positive, then you’ve got a bubble. Discounting the future $100 cash flow of the security using any positive expected return would produce a price less than $100. So the positive returns expected by investors are inconsistent with the returns that would equate price with discounted cash flows. The size of the bubble is the fraction of the market price that represents expectational ‘hot air.’
– John P. Hussman, Ph.D., How to Spot a Bubble, March 15, 2021

The word “bubble” gets tossed around quite a bit. Usually, it comes in the form of verbal arguments about whether prices have advanced to a point that’s “too high” in some sense.

We can do much better than that. A bubble is a mathematical object.

As I’ve observed before, bubbles are generated when investors drive valuations higher without simultaneously adjusting their expectations for future returns lower. That is, investors extrapolate past returns based on price behaviour, even though the resulting expectations about future returns are inconsistent with the returns that would equate price with discounted cash flows.

Suppose you buy a stock and hold it for one year, expecting to earn some return, call it k%. Over the year, you also receive a “cash flow” – in this case, a dividend, or buyout proceeds, or whatever the security throws off, and the price is, of course, reduced by that amount on the date the stock goes ex-dividend.
In your head, you expect the price to obey an equation that looks something like:
Price = (1+k) x Last Price – Cash Flow

But here’s the thing. Mathy people may recognize that the solution to an equation like this has two pieces. One is called a “particular solution,” and in this case, we can write it as a “fundamental value”:
F = All future cash flows, discounted to present value at the expected long-term return k

The other part is what’s called a “homogeneous solution,” and we can write it as a “bubble term” that looks something like:
B = (1+k) Last B

So what we get is:
Price = Fundamental Value + Bubble Term

That’s what Modigliani meant when he wrote, “I can show, really precisely, that there are two warranted prices for a share.”
Now, economists typically assume that investors are wise enough to rule out infinite bubbles (technically, called a “transversality condition”). When investors fail to do that, bad things happen. At the March 2000 peak, Modigliani’s mathy discussion beautifully foreshadowed what was about to happen in the real world: “once you are convinced that it is not growing anymore, nobody wants to hold a stock because it is overvalued. Everybody wants to get out, and it collapses, beyond the fundamentals.” That, in a nutshell, is how the Nasdaq 100 could go on to lose 83% of its value by October 2002.

See, the problem is this. Unless the Bubble Term is able to become exponentially larger forever, it shows up as a growing gap between the long-term return that investors expect in their heads and the long-term return that investors can actually expect based on the future cash flows that will ultimately be delivered into their hands.

In my April 2000 discussion of this problem, I wrote, “The only question is how long it takes for the gap between price and fundamentals to become intolerably wide. As we’ve seen, it can take a long time. But once the bubble psychology breaks, that gap can close with sickening speed. As we noted last month, the plunge in the Nasdaq may be muted from 83% to just 65% or so, given several years for revenues to catch up.”

As it turned out, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 went on to lose an implausibly precise 83% by October 2002.

On Wall Street, urgent stupidity has one terminal symptom, and it is the belief that money is free. Investors have turned the market into a carnival, where everybody ‘knows’ that the new rides are the good rides, and the old rides just don’t work. Where the carnival barkers seem to hand out free money just for showing up.

Unfortunately, this business is not that kind – it has always been true that in every pyramid, in every easy-money sure-thing, the first ones to get out are the only ones to get out. We’ve seen two-tiered markets before: most prominently in 1929, 1968-69, and 1972. Even at those pre-crash extremes, the S&P never sold above
20 times record earnings. The market faces problems at a multiple of 32. Technology stocks will ultimately fare worse. Over time, price/revenue ratios come back in line. Currently, that would require an 83% plunge in tech stocks (recall the 1969-70 tech massacre). If you understand values and market history, you know we’re not joking.
– John P. Hussman, Ph.D., Hussman Investment Research & Insight, March 7, 2000

Gauging the Bubble Term
The chart below shows our most reliable gauge of market valuations in data since 1928: the ratio of nonfinancial market capitalization to gross value-added (MarketCap/GVA). Gross value-added is the sum of corporate revenues generated incrementally at each stage of production, so MarketCap/GVA might be reasonably be viewed as an economy-wide, apples-to-apples price/revenue multiple for U.S. nonfinancial corporations.

The current level of valuations is the highest in U.S. history, easily exceeding both the 1929 and 2000 extremes. While the S&P 500 has advanced just over 5% since February, when the previous record was set, we’ve done just fine. Again, we prefer market fluctuation to a diagonal, hypervalued advance, but nothing in our discipline relies on a collapse.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wp-cont.../mc250814a.png

Now, one might argue that profit margins are at record highs, and that we’re now in a “new era” economy where these elevated profit margins will be permanent. In the next section, I’ll discuss why that argument may not be wise, but for true believers, it’s enough to note that even if we assume that current record profit margins are permanent, valuations still rival the most extreme levels in history.

You can see this in the chart below. The red line shows the ratio of the S&P 500 to analyst estimates of year-ahead “forward operating earnings.” This “forward P/E” is often preferred by Wall Street because it ignores bad stuff like “nonrecurring” losses and isn’t even defined under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), and because it only came into use in the 1980s, there’s no history for forward operating earnings before that time.

Fortunately, it turns out that we can easily proxy the S&P 500 forward P/E with the Shiller cyclically-adjusted P/E (CAPE). The relationship isn’t one-to-one, since the forward multiple is generally far lower than the CAPE, which is based on trailing 10-year earnings. But the current level of the CAPE does capture the elevated profit margins of the past decade. So if you believe that profit margins will remain at record levels forever, this is the valuation measure that you may want to use. That’s fine. We don’t rely on this choice either.

As for GAAP earnings, the S&P 500 currently trades at 29 times record trailing earnings. At the 2000 peak, the multiple reached 32. So again, extreme valuations aren’t an artifact of using any single measure. Some are more reliable than others, because their denominators tend to be more representative of subsequent cash flows (which is why we prefer MarketCap/GVA), but even if one assumes that current extreme profit margins will be permanent, the current situation rivals the most hypervalued extremes in history.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wp-cont.../mc250814b.png

A reliable valuation gauge is nothing but shorthand for a proper discounted cash flow analysis. As I’ve detailed across decades of market commentaries, the valuation gauges we use are faithful to that requirement. So, valuations offer beautiful intuition about the growing gap between the future returns in investors' heads, and the future returns that one would project based on discounted cash flows.

What returns do investors have in their heads here? Based on the 2025 Natixis Survey of investors with more than $100,000 in assets, investors expect “returns of 10.7% above inflation over the long term.” Equally scary is that while financial advisers suggest that investors should temper those expectations about after-inflation returns, those advisers “suggest that a more attainable target would be around 8.3%.”

Now recall how a speculative bubble works:
Bubbles are generated when investors drive valuations higher without simultaneously adjusting expectations for future returns lower. In other words, the defining feature of a bubble is inconsistency between expected returns based on price behaviour and expected returns based on valuations. The “Bubble Term” measures the gap between the two.

Unless the Bubble Term can become exponentially larger forever, it shows up as a growing gap between the long-term return that investors expect in their heads and the long-term return that investors can expect based on the future cash flows that will ultimately be delivered into their hands.

The chart below shows precisely what this looks like in real-world data. The blue line chart below shows the estimated 12-year S&P 500 total return that we project based on our most reliable valuation gauge – MarketCap/GVA. We get somewhat less extreme loss projections from less reliable measures, but the overall profile is much the same. The red line shows actual subsequent 12-year S&P 500 average annual nominal returns across a century of market cycles.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wp-cont.../mc250814c.png

Notice, as usual, that anytime the end of the 12-year horizon ends at bubble valuations (as the 1998-2000 horizon did, and recent 12-year horizons have), actual returns over those periods will be substantially above the returns that one would have estimated at the beginning of those horizons.
That’s just arithmetic. The actual total return of the S&P 500 for any given holding period has three pieces: the annual growth in fundamentals F, the annualized change in valuations (Price/F) during the holding period, and the average dividend yield during that period.

Over the past 10, 20 and 30 years, nominal GDP, S&P 500 revenues, and corporate gross value added have grown by only about 4.5% annually. Suppose that growth continues. The current S&P 500 dividend yield is only about 1.2%. So if valuations can remain at current extremes forever, the expected return arithmetic says 4.5% + 1.2% = 5.7% nominal.

If valuations decline to some lower level, the effect is to reduce expected returns by (future V / current V)^(1/T)-1, where T is the number of years. For example, a decline in MarketCap/GVA from the current extreme of 3.7 to a level no lower than the 2000 peak of 2.5 would lower 10-year total returns by (2.5/3.7)^(1/10)-1 = -3.8%. The resulting 10-year nominal total return estimate then becomes 5.7%-3.8% = 1.9% annually, and even less if inflation is positive. That’s not a theory, it’s just arithmetic. The only issue is whether investors assume the bubble will be permanent.

What’s taken so long?
Two factors have conspired to extend this bubble even beyond those that ended in 1929 and 2000. They’ve gone hand in hand, to some extent have been self-reinforcing.

First, years of zero-interest policy from the Federal Reserve fueled psychology among investors that “there is no alternative” (TINA) but to speculate. As the Fed took interest-bearing Treasury securities out of the market and onto its balance sheet, it replaced those securities with zero-interest Fed liabilities (currency, bank reserves, and funds on reverse repo) that someone had to hold at every moment in time. Since 1950, the amount of Fed liabilities has never exceeded 10% of GDP. From 2008 to 2022, the Fed took that percentage from just under 6% of GDP to a wild-eyed, deranged 32% of GDP by early 2022. The Fed has gradually tapered that back to about 22% today.

Someone in the economy is holding those Fed liabilities (mainly banks and money market funds), though at the moment the Fed is paying 4.4% on them rather than zero. This is the stuff that talking heads on TV call “cash on the sidelines,” imagining that at any moment, some buyer will somehow put it “into” the stock market without a seller taking it right back “out.” They believe this because nobody has explained to them how equilibrium works. That “cash” will, and must, continue to be held by someone, as cash, until and unless the Fed retires it by shrinking its balance sheet, at which time investors, in aggregate, will hold Treasury securities instead.

So one of the factors that extended this particular bubble was a zero-interest policy. It did two things. First, it encouraged investors to drive stock prices higher (implicitly driving future long-term stock market returns lower, to levels better aligned with the near-zero returns on bonds). But given that the total debt of U.S. nonfinancial corporations is nearly the size of their annual revenues (we prefer gross-value added), every 1% drop in corporate interest rates reduced debt servicing costs and propped up profit margins by that same 1%. Moreover, corporations were able to refinance that debt at the interest rate lows of 2020 and 2021, which is only now just beginning to be refinanced at higher rates.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wp-cont.../mc250814d.png

So zero-interest rate policies boosted both corporate profits and the multiples that investors were willing to pay for those profits.
Now look at fiscal policy. As I’ve noted before – equilibrium again – anytime one sector runs a deficit (consumption and net investment over-and-above income), some other sector must run a surplus (income over-and-above consumption and net investment). That’s not a theory. It’s just an accounting identity. That accounting identity has played out in real time in ways that investors don’t seem to fully recognize.

Specifically, as government deficits exploded in recent years – particularly resulting from a combination of tax cuts and pandemic spending – corporate free cash flows also exploded. They had to. This wasn’t because of some new-era productivity boom. It was because of the equilibrium. It’s just an accounting identity. But it creates a situation where perpetually extreme corporate earnings now rely on perpetually extreme government deficits. They are mirror images of each other.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wp-cont.../mc250814e.png

Put simply, investors now rely on an ever-expanding Bubble Term that was driven by “free money” monetary and fiscal policies that will not only have to persist, but will have to expand without limit to keep up with that Bubble Term.

It’s important to constantly emphasize that nothing in our discipline requires a market collapse, mean-reversion in valuations, a retreat in profit margins, or an end to deranged monetary interventions or fiscal free-for-alls. Our discipline is to align our investment stance in response to measurable, observable market conditions – primarily valuations and market internals – as they change over time. Our September 2024 hedging implementation added a fresh degree of freedom, allowing us to vary our investment stance even amid the most extreme market conditions. We do benefit from market fluctuation, but in my view, little beyond that is necessary. No forecasts or scenarios are required.

Still, from the standpoint of valuations, a century of market history, the economics of equilibrium, and just plain arithmetic, my take is simple: I expect this bubble to end in tears.

By submitting this form, you consent to receive news and commentary, at no cost, from Hussman Strategic Advisors, News & Commentary, Cincinnati, OH, 45246. https://www.hussmanfunds.com. You can revoke your consent to receive emails at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link at the bottom of every email. Emails are serviced by Constant Contact.

The foregoing comments represent the general investment analysis and economic views of the Advisor, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse.

Prospectuses for the Hussman Strategic Market Cycle Fund, the Hussman Strategic Total Return Fund, and the Hussman Strategic Allocation Fund, as well as Fund reports and other information, are available by clicking Prospectus & Reports under “The Funds” menu button on any page of this website.

The S&P 500 Index is a commonly recognized, capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely-held equity securities, designed to measure broad U.S. equity performance. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is made up of the Bloomberg U.S. Government/Corporate Bond Index, Mortgage-Backed Securities Index, and Asset-Backed Securities Index, including securities that are of investment grade quality or better, have at least one year to maturity, and have an outstanding par value of at least $100 million. The Bloomberg US EQ: FI 60:40 Index is designed to measure cross-asset market performance in the U.S. The index rebalances monthly to 60% equities and 40% fixed income. The equity and fixed income allocation is represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Large Cap Index and the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index. You cannot invest directly in an index.

Estimates of prospective return and risk for equities, bonds, and other financial markets are forward-looking statements based on the analysis and reasonable beliefs of Hussman Strategic Advisors. They are not a guarantee of future performance, and are not indicative of the prospective returns of any of the Hussman Funds. Actual returns may differ substantially from the estimates provided. Estimates of prospective long-term returns for the S&P 500 reflect our standard valuation methodology, focusing on the relationship between current market prices and earnings, dividends and other fundamentals, adjusted for variability over the economic cycle. Further details relating to MarketCap/GVA (the ratio of nonfinancial market capitalization to gross-value added, including estimated foreign revenues) and our Margin-Adjusted P/E (MAPE) can be found in the Market Comment Archive under the Knowledge Center tab of this website. MarketCap/GVA: Hussman 05/18/15. MAPE: Hussman 05/05/14, Hussman 09/04/17.

Keep Me Informed

Reprint Policy

Open Disclosure Notice in a Separate Window
For more information about investing in the Hussman Funds, please call us at:
1-800-HUSSMAN (1-800-487-7626)
513-326-3551 outside of the United States

Site and site contents 2025 Hussman Strategic Advisors

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

#15,269
Edited 5:11pm Aug 14, 2025 4:41pm | Edited 5:11pm

BenjaminIs
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts

https://mishtalk.com/economics/us-de...very-150-days/

https://i0.wp.com/mishtalk.com/wp-co...ality=80&ssl=1

US Debt Now Grows by $1 Trillion Every 150 Days

August 14, 2025

1:00 pm

US Debt Now Grows by $1 Trillion Every 150 Days

Economics

US national debt just topped $37 trillion and is growing fast.
https://i0.wp.com/mishtalk.com/wp-co...ality=80&ssl=1

Another Debt Milestone
The Peter G. Peterson foundation reports The United States is Adding to the National Debt Faster Than Ever
In the 2020s, the U.S. has added debt at a rate of $1 trillion every 5 months, more than twice the rate that has prevailed over the past 25 years. In part, recent debt accumulation reflects the significant deficit spending in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, in the face of a strong recovery and low unemployment, U.S. deficits remain substantially elevated and are projected to continue growing at a historic rate, while associated interest costs have overtaken all but Social Security as the nation’s largest expenditure.

Looking at recent history, by decade, the U.S. added $1 trillion to the Debt:
Every 24 months in the 2000s, on average
Every 11 months in the 2010s, on average
Every 5 months in the 2020s, on average
Looking ahead, it is critically important for the nation’s leaders to prioritize fiscally responsible policies that put the country on a more sustainable path.

Unsustainable Path
https://i0.wp.com/mishtalk.com/wp-co...ality=80&ssl=1

Also consider America’s National Debt Challenge

The national debt is nearly as large as the entire U.S. economy and is projected to exceed its record high relative to the size of the economy in just 4 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

Why is our debt rising so dramatically? There is a fundamental imbalance between spending and revenues that will continue to grow in future years. CBO anticipates that federal spending will rise from 23.3 percent of GDP in 2025 to 26.6 percent in 2055, according to the agency’s March 2025 long-term projections. Revenues also are projected to increase during that period, but more slowly — from 17.1 percent of GDP in 2025 to 19.3 percent in 2055 — which means deficits will continue to rise in the decades ahead.

What’s Happening?
1) Aging Population: Over the next 25 years, the major driver of rising long-term federal spending is the aging of America’s population, as the number of people 65 or older will increase much faster than the working-age population, leading to increases in spending on programs for retirees.
2) Rising Healthcare Costs: The rising cost of healthcare in the United States is a key driver of the national debt. CBO’s projections anticipate that the federal government’s spending on major healthcare programs, such as Medicare and Medicaid, will climb from 5.8 percent of GDP in 2025 to 8.1 percent in 2055. Additionally, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services note that total healthcare spending from all sources will grow to reach one-fifth of the entire economy. On a per capita basis, the U.S. healthcare system is the most expensive among other wealthy countries. Yet, America’s health outcomes are generally no better than those of our peers, and in some cases, are worse, including in areas like life expectancy, infant mortality, asthma, and diabetes.

America’s fiscal health and economic strength are closely linked. The national debt is also an issue of fairness for the next generation. Young Americans will be saddled with the weight of decisions made by those that came before them, unless thoughtful, forward-looking fiscal decisions are made to strengthen the country’s economic future. A strong fiscal foundation creates conditions that encourage broad-based economic growth: an environment with greater access to capital, increased public and private investments, enhanced business and consumer confidence, and a solid safety net. In turn, those factors improve the lives of Americans by supporting a vibrant economy with rising wages and greater opportunity, productivity, and mobility.

Our Current Fiscal Path

Debt is projected to continue to rise because there is a structural mismatch between spending and revenues.
The national debt is nearly as large as the entire U.S. economy and is projected to exceed its record high relative to the size of the economy in just 4 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

Why is our debt rising so dramatically? There is a fundamental imbalance between spending and revenues that will continue to grow in future years. CBO anticipates that federal spending will rise from 23.3 percent of GDP in 2025 to 26.6 percent in 2055, according to the agency’s March 2025 long-term projections. Revenues also are projected to increase during that period, but more slowly — from 17.1 percent of GDP in 2025 to 19.3 percent in 2055 — which means deficits will continue to rise in the decades ahead.

Key Drivers of the National Debt

What is causing the growth of our national debt?
There are three primary drivers of the overall growth in spending: America’s aging population, rising healthcare costs, and rapidly escalating interest costs. Significant growth in those categories is combined with a tax system that is not designed to collect enough revenues to fund the promises that have been made.

1) Aging Population
Over the next 25 years, the major driver of rising long-term federal spending is the aging of America’s population, as the number of people 65 or older will increase much faster than the working-age population, leading to increases in spending on programs for retirees.

The first wave of the baby-boom generation has already reached retirement age. Americans are living longer, on average, which means that seniors will spend more years in retirement. In the coming decades, those factors will add substantially to the number of people supported by programs targeted to older Americans, such as Social Security and Medicare.

2) Rising Healthcare Costs
The rising cost of healthcare in the United States is a key driver of the national debt. CBO’s projections anticipate that the federal government’s spending on major healthcare programs, such as Medicare and Medicaid, will climb from 5.8 percent of GDP in 2025 to 8.1 percent in 2055. Additionally, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services note that total healthcare spending from all sources will grow to reach one-fifth of the entire economy.
On a per capita basis, the U.S. healthcare system is the most expensive among other wealthy countries. Yet, America’s health outcomes are generally no better than those of our peers, and in some cases, are worse, including in areas like life expectancy, infant mortality, asthma, and diabetes.

3) Rising Interest Costs:As the national debt grows and interest rates rise, the United States will spend more of its budget on the cost of servicing that debt — crowding out opportunities to invest in the economy.

4) Insufficient Revenues: It would be one thing if the tax code were designed to fund all the promises made, but it is not. The U.S. tax system does not generate nearly enough revenues to cover federal spending. Furthermore, our tax code is also overly complex, confusing, inefficient, and unfair. For example, it remains riddled with tax expenditures, or “tax breaks,” that provide financial benefits to specific activities, entities, and groups of people. Those tax breaks, which totaled nearly $1.9 trillion in 2024, increase annual deficits and can create market distortions that damage economic growth and productivity.

Net Interest Costs
https://i0.wp.com/mishtalk.com/wp-co...ality=80&ssl=1

Trump seems to have some grasp of interest projections.

However, he has no economic grasp of where inflation might be if the Fed holds interest rates too low as it has done on numerous occasions.
Shelter costs are out of sight, and that’s with poorly constructed measures of inflation.

Special Interest Vote Buying
Rather than make the tax code simpler, Trump added no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and dramatically sweetened the pot on state and local income tax deductions (SALT).

Those tax breaks, which totaled nearly $1.9 trillion in 2024.

Tariffs
Tariffs will raise money and Trump brags about that. But tariffs primarily hit small businesses (who will go out of business) and end consumers, especially lower income groups.

Trump now claims to want to give tax check rebates on tariffs which makes a mockery of claiming tariffs will balance the budget.
It’s a massive wealth redistribution scheme from the poor to the wealthy.

Trump is seriously illiterate on tariffs. Downstream negative repercussions will be massive.

Spending Problem
It’s often said, we have a spending problem not a revenue problem, but what did Trump do about it?
The answer is threaten any Republicans who would not go along with his One Big Beautiful Act that increased the deficits.
The MAGA cult cheered.

And Trump will increase military spending too. It’s sickening.

Mish Proposals
My proposal would eliminate income taxes on the first 30-40K of income, kill earned Income nonsense, end child tax credits, and curtail food stamps and Medicaid.
In other words, I want to encourage people to work.

One of the big problems is the way Congress allocates money. It makes it hard to close unneeded military bases or end pet projects. A block grant to the Military (and to states for Medicaid) would correct the problem.

We tell the Pentagon, you get 20 percent less, but you decide how to spend it wisely. They would have an incentive to root out waste and marginal projects.
The same applies to states with Medicaid. The current incentive is to promote fraud, not stop it. That mentality must change.
The the extent Congress refuses to cut spending, we need to raise money. A VAT that excludes food and medicine but has high rates on boats, jewelry, etc. would be far better and more efficient than Trump’s nonsensical reciprocal tariffs.

We need a simpler tax code, Trump expanded it. I propose a tax code so simple we could practically eliminate the IRS.
Corporate taxes are a mess. We encourage production overseas. I suggest we lower (or eliminate) corporate taxes on production in the US and set a higher rate on taxes overseas. Investment would flood back into the US.

Instead, pharmaceutical production moved to Ireland to take advantage of Ireland’s (and the US) tax code.

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

#15,270
Aug 14, 2025 5:36pm Aug 14, 2025 5:36pm

BenjaminIs
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts

The Financial Reset Has Already Begun

The financial reset is no longer a theory. It is already underway. The moves you make now will decide whether you survive it.

Subscribe to It Starts With Gold on Substack for daily updates that cut through the noise and help you stay one step ahead.
Subscribe to It Starts With Gold on Substack

Is a Global Gold Revaluation the Next Debt Reset Tool?
https://mcusercontent.com/e4a56828a7...3817ddd037.png
By Adrian C. Spitters, FCSI

, CFP

, CEA

President, Author, Private Wealth Advisor, PFC Wealth Solutions

Gold Can Now Be Monetized By The Federal Reserve, Hinting At A Global Debt Reset.

Central banks are running out of moves. The debt is unpayable, interest costs are compounding, and public confidence is eroding. But one line buried in a new Federal Reserve accounting manual could signal their next play: monetize gold.

According to the May 2025 Financial Accounting Manual for Federal Reserve Banks, the U.S. Treasury is fully authorized to issue gold certificates that the Federal Reserve can treat as assets. This is not theory. It is spelled out in black and white. These certificates are backed by physical gold held by the Treasury and can be sold to the Federal Reserve to credit the Treasury General Account.

That means the U.S. government now has a blueprint to use its gold reserves to generate cash, without selling the metal outright. If revalued at market or above-market prices, this move could wipe trillions off the federal debt. And if this happens in the United States, it could set off a chain reaction in Canada and beyond.

How Would It Work?

Here is the mechanism:

The U.S. Treasury holds over 260 million ounces of gold.
These are valued at around 42 dollars per ounce on the books.
If the Treasury revalues gold to 20,000 dollars per ounce, its balance sheet value soars to over 5 trillion dollars.
It issues gold certificates to the Federal Reserve reflecting this revaluation.
The Fed treats these certificates as assets and credits the Treasury General Account with cash.
The Treasury uses that cash to retire debt without issuing more bonds.

This is no different, in accounting terms, from quantitative easing. Except this time, the money printing is tied to a real asset.
Continue Reading The Full Article on It Starts With Gold

Read the Book They Never Wanted You to See

Order your copy of It Starts With Gold on Amazon today

After reading the book, please consider leaving a review on Amazon. Your voice helps others find the book and recognize what is unfolding before it's too late.

#15,271
Aug 14, 2025 6:14pm Aug 14, 2025 6:14pm

BenjaminIs
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

In the last twenty years, top FOREX traders rarely earned over 5% a month or 60% a year and NEVER more than three years in a row. There are reasons for this.

My students are expected to earn 5% a month under my guidance for 90 days, the length of my hands-on teaching.

Forex trading presents vast opportunities for profit through its high liquidity and leverage options. However, it also carries inherent risks, demanding a thorough understanding of market mechanics, disciplined trading strategies, and effective risk management. As a dynamic and complex financial market, Forex offers global challenges and rewards to participants.

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

News from around the world. Please CLICK on the link below.

https://finviz.com/news.ashx?v=2

5-Minute Chart of Dow 30 - Our X-Ray Photo - Please CLICK on the LINK below.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

Please sign up for our 90-day Forex Trading and Information course by sending an E-transfer of 100..00 Canadian dollars to Tobyruth11@yahoo.com

"Trader" does not mean the sole objective is making money. The moment you come with money-making as the sole and only objective, you are out of the game anyway and part of the larger crowd, which is unsuccessful

Do things that can identify you as a professional trader - learn the process, understand and follow risk management and position sizing. Be disciplined and understand that trading is a long haul.

Each day, from around 8:30 AM to 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time, I determine whether we have RISK ON or OFF.

No indicator can do this just as no technical indicator can effectively predict what will happen moment to moment as one MAJOR fundamental fact whether GEOPOLITICAL or FINANCIAL or now SUPPLY CHAIN or some New Covid 19 variant can cause the markets to go down or up 500 points as the Dow 30 has been doing recently and will continue to do. This sometimes happens in one day, so normal charting cannot work.

That is why my Unique Method of Forex trading was developed in 2003 when I started trading Forex, and later in 2012 when I added to my business model and started teaching my unique 100% proven method of Money Flow trading.

It is no longer possible to trade Forex without a STOP LOSS.

A STOP LOSS of fewer than 100 PIPS is not a good strategy. That leads me to explain why most of 95% of all Retail Forex Traders lose. They trade with small amounts of money and SCALP, making it almost impossible to make profits over one year because of the VIOLENT NATURE of the swings in the Asset Classes caused by world-changing events.

Each Forex Trade that you do should not risk more than 2% of your trading Capital and that is based on trading Capital of $50,000 US Dollars, INITIALLY learning on a $50,000 US Funds Demo account just as I did for three years before I made my first Real Funds Trade on March 9, 2006, 18 years ago.

PLEASE GO WITH THE MONEY FLOW

Let us review what we teach and why it works if YOU WORK.

Without your WORK, you are wasting your time and probably your money.

There is no such thing as Political Correctness here because we are here to teach and share our knowledge.

SO.... going back to our winning FORMULA for FOREX SUCCESS.

20% of the SUCCESS is yourself, the Forex Trader.

20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE, which we teach you in Money Flow Trading.

20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard-earned money). Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear, and greed. Of course, we want to ensure you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader, so our course is for three months. So we can teach you the right trading methods. We can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.

20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators, which include not only the common ones. It consists of understanding supply and demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points, which you can see daily on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans, which we also help you develop and explain WHY. We review these Winning Trade Plans every three months or more frequently if market circumstances require that.

20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than the Data released daily worldwide. It includes reports and articles that are extremely well researched, as you can see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets, especially in North America, is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do and are not surprised when events eventually unfold.

When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't Forex trading, they stare at screens and force trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business.

Quoting perfectionis
What are the key principles of risk management in forex trading, especially considering the influence of central banks and market sentiment? How do you determine risk-on or risk-off conditions, and how does it affect currency flows? Considering both fundamental factors and technical indicators, what impact could the British election have on forex markets? That election took place on Thursday, July 4, 2024.

The answers to your excellent questions will happen by registering to post on Forex Factory, so you can post your questions or comments on my thread.

PERCEPTION is not REALITY. Most commercial and retail Forex traders have no idea what QE (Quantitative Easing) and QT (Quantitative Tightening) do to CAUSE INFLATION.

If you want to call me and discuss it further, I offer direct contact by calling me at 1 819 275 7780. Please sign up for my service by sending a Bank E Transfer of Canadian funds to Tobyruth11@yahoo.com

The fee is 100.00 dollars in Canadian funds from your bank account by E-Transfer.

We believe in a hands-on approach at a more than reasonable cost for a comprehensive service.

We can all see by looking at the link below, the 5 Minute Chart of Dow 30, the patterns keep repeating, and you all have a chance if you want to learn to become very wealthy over the next year by signing up. You have zero risk, as the information that you will have access to is invaluable.

Here is the link.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

LOOK AT THE PATTERN OF TODAY and every Forex trading day from Sunday at 2:00 AM Eastern Standard Time in Europe to 10:00 AM Eastern Standard Time when North American Equity Markets start trading at 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time on Monday.

This X-RAY and PATTERN repeats between Sunday and Friday at 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time when All Forex Trading stops until 3:00 PM Eastern Standard Time when New Zealand opens for trading, followed by Asia at 8:00 PM, Europe at 2:00 AM and North America at 9:30 AM.

ABSOLUTE FORTUNES ARE POSSIBLE ONCE YOU UNDERSTAND !!! And you show that you have the DISCIPLINE by your results to CONTROL your FEAR, GREED and EGO !!! The markets are always right until they are not.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

If you want to call me and discuss it further, I offer direct contact by calling me at 1 819 275 7780. I will spend a minimum of 30 minutes with you on the telephone to answer any of your questions at NO COST TO YOU. Please sign up for my service by sending a Bank E Transfer of Canadian funds to Tobyr [email protected]

5-Minute Chart of Dow 30 - Our X-Ray Photo - Please CLICK on the LINK below.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

NOTE: PLEASE REGISTER TO POST ON THIS THREAD. WE CAN THEN HELP YOU BECOME SKILLED WITH 24/7 Guidance. It costs nothing to register and takes less than 5 minutes.

CLICK ON THE LINK ABOVE AND LOOK AT THE REPEATING X-RAY Each Forex Trading Day.

You Need To Act So I Can Help You DISCOVER if you have the SKILLS to become a winning Forex trader using LEVERAGE of 100 to 1.

Our Forex Trade Plan from April 1, 2025, until June 30, 2025, is SHORT 50 UNITS of DOW 30, SHORT 50 UNITS of SP500, Go LONG 100 ounces of Gold and 5000 Ounces of Silver. I usually choose one of the MAJOR Currency Pairs to SHORT or GO LONG ON.

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

CLICK ON THIS LINK - IT IS THE 5-Minute Chart Of Dow 30. See how the KNOWN PATTERNS REPEAT -
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

THE WRONG PERCEPTION WORLDWIDE CONTINUES IN THE STOCK MARKETS.

WHY? Most Traders and EXPERTS do not understand ECONOMICS. READ THE April 2025 JOHN HUSSMAN NEWSLETTER. It will be the next post after this one.

HE CALLED IT PERFECTLY. RATE CUTS CANNOT STOP A RECESSION AND OTHER SERIOUS PROBLEMS IN THE MANIPULATED STOCK MARKETS.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

LOOK AT THE PATTERN OF the last 24 hours as it repeats every day, which is why my results are spectacular and PROFITABLE.
CLICK ON THE LINK ABOVE AND SIGN UP OR CALL ME FOR A ONE-ON-ONE 30-minute discussion. Thanks - BWM

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

You can also reach me by emailing [email protected] for further information on how I can help you make money and educate you on matters of most importance in our ever-changing world.

#15,272
Aug 14, 2025 6:17pm Aug 14, 2025 6:17pm

BenjaminIs
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts

Gold Can Now Be Monetized By The Federal Reserve, Hinting At A Global Debt Reset.

Central banks are running out of moves. The debt is unpayable, interest costs are compounding, and public confidence is eroding. But one line buried in a new Federal Reserve accounting manual could signal their next play: monetize gold.

According to the May 2025 Financial Accounting Manual for Federal Reserve Banks, the U.S. Treasury is fully authorized to issue gold certificates that the Federal Reserve can treat as assets. This is not a theory. It is spelled out in black and white. These certificates are backed by physical gold held by the Treasury and can be sold to the Federal Reserve to credit the Treasury General Account.

That means the U.S. government now has a blueprint to use its gold reserves to generate cash, without selling the metal outright. If revalued at market or above-market prices, this move could wipe trillions off the federal debt. And if this happens in the United States, it could set off a chain reaction in Canada and beyond.

How Would It Work?
Here is the mechanism:

The U.S. Treasury holds over 260 million ounces of gold.
These are valued at around 42 dollars per ounce on the books.
If the Treasury revalues gold to 20,000 dollars per ounce, its balance sheet value soars to over 5 trillion dollars.
It issues gold certificates to the Federal Reserve reflecting this revaluation.
The Fed treats these certificates as assets and credits the Treasury General Account with cash.
The Treasury uses that cash to retire debt without issuing more bonds.

This is no different, in accounting terms, from quantitative easing. Except this time, the money printing is tied to a real asset.

The Debt Trap
Canada and the United States are both facing a debt trap. Servicing costs on sovereign debt are climbing sharply. With rising interest rates and shrinking demand for new government bonds, the ability to roll over existing obligations becomes less sustainable.

According to the Bank of Canada, the federal debt service charge is expected to exceed 50 billion dollars in 2025. In the United States, interest payments on debt are approaching 1 trillion dollars annually. That is more than the U.S. spends on defence.

Revaluing gold becomes a seductive solution. It provides instant liquidity without requiring new buyers of government bonds. But there is a cost.

The Inflation Blowback
Injecting trillions in new money into the system, backed by a revalued asset, may not look like traditional stimulus, but the inflationary consequences could be just as severe. The difference is that this time, the wealth transfer could heavily benefit those holding gold while crushing the purchasing power of those holding fiat currency or low-yield bonds.

Canadian households already face surging food prices, mortgage costs, and fuel expenses. A gold-driven inflation cycle could push many into insolvency.
Gold at 20,000 Dollars an Ounce?

It may sound like fiction, but a government simply has to announce a new bid. If the U.S. Treasury says it will buy gold at 20,000 dollars, why would anyone sell for less? The private market follows that floor. Central banks around the world would be forced to mark up their own gold to match or risk seeing their currencies plunge against a new gold-backed U.S. dollar.

For Canada, which sold off nearly all its gold reserves decades ago, this would be catastrophic. Our central bank would have no real asset buffer. We would be caught flat-footed in a gold revaluation scenario with nothing to anchor our currency.

What This Means for Canadians

Canada’s lack of gold makes our financial system more vulnerable in a global reset.
Canadians relying on pensions, savings accounts, and GICs (Guaranteed Investment Certificates) would see erosion in real value if inflation takes off.
Investors holding physical precious metals or private alternatives may be better protected.

The lesson is clear. When governments lose control of debt, they revert to assets with no counterparty risk.

Gold Monetization Is Legal and Simple
According to Section 2-10 of the Federal Reserve's own accounting manual, monetizing Treasury-held gold is not just legal, it is procedural. The Fed treats these certificates like it would treat mortgage-backed securities or Treasury bonds. The key difference is that gold is finite. Once revalued, the gold remains on the books but generates liquid purchasing power.

It is a silent form of debt default. Creditors get repaid in devalued dollars. Holders of real assets benefit. Fiat savers lose.

Could This Happen in Canada?
Not directly. Canada’s government has no gold to monetize. But the implications would ripple north. If the U.S. dollar is backed by revalued gold, the Canadian dollar would fall unless Canada does something similar.

This opens a wider conversation. Should Canada rebuild its gold reserves? Should individual Canadians take steps to own physical metals themselves?
If the global financial system resets around tangible assets, Canadians need to be prepared. Ottawa has not shown any interest in acquiring gold. That means the responsibility falls on individuals.

A Historical Parallel
In 1933, U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt confiscated gold from American citizens and revalued it from 20.67 to 35 dollars per ounce, instantly devaluing the dollar and reducing real debt levels. This was not a fringe event. It was a precedent.

Today, gold sits at the top of the Federal Reserve’s internal balance sheet, above Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. That is not a coincidence.

Gold Confiscation 2.0?
If gold is revalued, will governments try to tax or seize private holdings? That risk increases as gold becomes central to financial stability.
Canadians storing metals in private vaults, outside the banking system, and with proper legal structures, may be better positioned. Canadians storing gold in registered plans or large financial institutions may be exposed to future restrictions.

Hope Through Preparation
There is hope. If individuals move early, they can reposition wealth before a formal reset. Holding physical gold, reducing exposure to bonds, and shifting from passive mutual funds to diversified private alternatives are proactive moves.

We can influence outcomes locally. Communities that build trust-based financial systems, invest in tangible assets, and diversify away from fiat dependency will survive resets better than those that remain passive.

Front-Run the Reset: Protect Your Wealth with Physical Gold
Canadians who see the writing on the wall are not waiting. They are acting now, before gold is potentially reset to 20,000 dollars per ounce by the U.S. Treasury. That kind of revaluation would not just change prices. It would change the entire financial system. And those holding physical gold will be the ones who survive it.

That is where New World Precious Metals becomes essential.

https://img1.wsimg.com/isteam/ip/fdf...0%25/rs=w:1280

Founded by seasoned Canadian investors, New World Precious Metals helps individuals take direct ownership of real gold and silver. Not paper proxies. Not bank IOUs. Their clients are moving assets out of exposed institutions and into vaulted, legally owned bullion before the window closes.

They help Canadians convert registered accounts into hard assets, prepare for retirement with tangible wealth, and build personal gold reserves that remain outside the reach of central banks, collapsing markets, and digital surveillance.

The U.S. government already holds over 260 million ounces of gold. If revalued at 20,000 dollars per ounce, it could instantly erase trillions in debt. But that same move would punish anyone still holding cash, bonds, or mutual funds.

Do not wait for the announcement.
Every day you delay, the cost of real money rises. Every week, your purchasing power erodes. Every month, the system inches closer to reset.
Call New World Precious Metals today to start protecting your wealth with gold while you still can. Visit New World Precious Metals now and stay ahead of what is coming.

This Is Not Just About Gold
It is about sovereignty, control, and legacy. It is about being one step ahead of policies that quietly devalue your wealth while telling you everything is fine.

We wrote our book to help individuals understand these dynamics before they unfold. Gold is the starting point. But it is not the ending.
In our number one international best-selling book, It Starts With Gold, co-authored by Peter J. Merrick and Adrian C. Spitters, we reveal how governments may revalue gold to reset debt and what that means for savers, families, and future generations. Visit www.ItStartsWithGold.com.

To find out more, order your copy of It Starts With Gold from Amazon today. CLICK HERE

https://img1.wsimg.com/isteam/ip/fdf...0%25/rs=w:1280

References:

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

#15,273
Aug 15, 2025 3:50am Aug 15, 2025 3:50am

BenjaminIs
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts

www.vongreyerz.gold
1/4
[email protected]

We are currently experiencing a watershed convergence of: the worst global relations since 1949; the greatest financial bubble in the history of capital markets; the highest geopolitical/war risks since the Cuban Missile Crisis; the lowest trust in Western leadership (from the G-7 to Israel, DC to the Ukraine) and the greatest debt levels in the history of mankind.

SO MANY CRACKS IN PLAIN SIGHT To say that the world is feeling unstable would be an understatement... PHYSICAL GOLD VS. DESPERATE DEBT & UNSTABLE COIN CENTRALISATION MONTHLY GOLD BRIEFING August 2025 In just 54 years, the major fiat currencies of the world have lost 99% of their purchasing power against a milligram of gold.

100 dollars in 1971 now has the equivalent purchasing power of $13. Meanwhile, gold, which has outperformed the S&P since 2000, has made consecutive all-time highs, while consensus financial advisors still declare it as “too volatile.”? As for national economic and market strength, the home of the world reserve currency is in an openly denied recession by every metric - from the Tsams Rule, the Conference Board of Leading Indicators, Yield Curve, M2 movements and record-breaking small business bankruptcies to over $1T in US consumer credit card debt, spiking “buy-now-pay-later” deals and auto/credit-card delinquencies at 13-year highs.

In the meantime, the US sits on a ticking time-bomb of $37T in public debt, a stock-market driven by seven names (whose CEOs are selling shares to the tune of billions per month) while margin debt ($1T) surpasses GFC levels and retail investors are chasing tops at an “all-in” pace that exceeds the dot.com bubble. Even crazier is that with debt levels rising and Main Street falling, the US is blaming its trade deficits and overspending on the rest of the world rather than its spending patterns. We are thus imposing trade-disruptive tariffs whose range and magnitude, as well as recessionary and inflationary risks, change with each daily tweet.

PAPER MONEY BURNS, BUBBLES FATTEN & GOLD HOLDS DEBT DESTROYS This debt, and this chart, matter because debt matters. Debt, as David Hume warned in the 1750s, and von Mises warned centuries later, destroys currencies, freedom and nations. Look around us. What do we see? The slow-drip destruction of currencies, freedom and nations.

www.vongreyerz.gold
2/4
[email protected]

CENTRALISATION+FORCEDDOLLARDEMAND =STABLECOINS DESPERATE NATIONS, DESPERATE POLICIES In short, the world in general, and the U.S. in particular, are not only in a debt corner, but they are in a desperate corner. Desperate nations, of course, do desperate things.

The declining demand for USTs and USDs following the weaponization of the same in 2022 has resulted in a need to create clever tricks and artificial demand for their otherwise unloved and distrusted paper dollars and IOUs.

As warned for years, history also confirms that every debt crisis involves a domino-like move toward greater centralization and control from the extreme political left or right. NOTHING STABLE AT ALL… Stablecoins are a blockchain asset with all the bells and whistles of transfer speed, with an extra dash of an issuer’s promise of audited, 1:1 USD backing. In short, you give a bank or fintech stablecoin issuer your dollar, and they invest it for a profit ($26B for Tether thus far) in USTs while you get an ecurrency with no yield. The “coin” issuers thereby get a yield arbitrage while Uncle Sam gets new UST buyers (Tether is his 18th largest lender) and you get all the risk (and surveillance).

If history’s centralization warnings and the real-time warnings of a broken currency are true, then the perfect marriage and symbol of this tragic combination could not be more obvious, more forewarned or more in practice than the new stablecoin hysteria.

Let’s be blunt: These stablecoins are nothing more than CBDC issued by FinTechs and commercial banks rather than a central bank. In other words, tech lipstick on a centralized pig.

www.vongreyerz.gold
3/4
[email protected]

CBDC BY ANOTHER NAME Far less discussed is the fact that these digital stablecoins are just as trackable, programmable and “take-able” as a CBDC, but with a commercial bank or fintech doing the same dirty work. Since COVID, the IMF has been telegraphing all the warm and fuzzy technology, speed and safety of digital money and CBDC without mentioning the scarier parts out loud. Stablecoins, like any tokenized asset, including gold, are not “stable” if what lies behind their bits and bytes has direct links to market, intermediary and privacy risk. This is because a stablecoin backed by USTs is anything but stable. USTs are the worst performing asset of the last 5 years, and if you need a more recent example of how a tanking UST can destabilize and otherwise “stable” façade, just ask Signature Valley Bank and the other UST-heavy banks who tanked under the rising-rate setting of 2023… MODERN DOESN’T ALWAYS MEAN BETTER. Which is why sophisticated gold investors who value their privacy, safety and autonomy invest outside of the so-called stability of banking, fintech and governmental over-reach.

Storing analog “pet rocks” in segregated/allocated accounts that you can feel and touch in legally safe-guarded jurisdictions within private vaults outside of this corrupted system may not be modern or sexy to the tech meme of today. But freedom and wealth preservation goals, as well as direct ownership methods (in a world predictably and increasingly more centralized and dishonest by the day) are as timeless, honest and essential as the metals themselves. There’s only one way to truly own gold - and that’s physical, not technical. It must be held in your name, outside the banking system, in the most secure private vaults.

www.vongreyerz.gold
4/4
[email protected]

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

#15,274
Aug 15, 2025 9:11am Aug 15, 2025 9:11am

BenjaminIs
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts

https://vongreyerz.gold/egon-von-gre...ource=hs_email

Skip to content

+41 44 213 62 45

https://vongreyerz.gold/content/plug...s/flags/en.svg

https://vongreyerz.gold/content/plug...s/flags/en.svg

https://vongreyerz.gold/dist/images/...ogo.fcdd97.svg

Home

Services

Family Office

About Us

Insights

Why Gold

Risks

FAQs

Contact

Egon von Greyerz & James Turk: Past Lessons of Future Disaster
https://vongreyerz.gold/content/uplo...-1-150x150.jpg
By Egon von Greyerz
Founder and Chairman

August 15, 2025

https://platform-cdn.sharethis.com/img/facebook.svg

https://platform-cdn.sharethis.com/img/email.svg

https://platform-cdn.sharethis.com/img/twitter.svg

https://platform-cdn.sharethis.com/img/print.svg

https://platform-cdn.sharethis.com/img/whatsapp.svg

In this informal yet compelling conversation, two iconic veterans of the precious metals space, Egon von Greyerz and James Turk, bring needed financial AND historical perspective to evolving (and eerily foreseeable) cracks in the global financial system.

Both reminisce about a discussion they enjoyed nearly 15 years prior. Not surprisingly, much of what was discussed/warned then (currency debasement, trapped banks, dangerous credit expansion and rising gold) is playing out dramatically in real-time today. Turk, having equally foresaw the USD’s direct march off a debt cliff, admits that the system has kept itself precariously afloat longer than he expected in 2011. Timing issues, however, do not prevent the inevitable cracks now widening with each passing headline.

Turk and von Greyerz then share direct experiences and lessons of the 1970s (markets falling under banking disasters, massive inflation spikes and currency-based counterparty risks) at a time when the US was the world’s greatest creditor rather than greatest debtor.

They remind, as Churchill noted, that the further one looks back, the further one can see forward. Unfortunately, almost no policy-makers today possess such historical wisdom. Even fewer understand the fragility (and eventual demise) of a global financial and banking system underpinned by bad credit rather than sound/real money: Gold & silver.

Turk and von Greyerz address as well the risks and opportunities regarding cryptocurrencies, which they remind are precisely that: “Currencies” and NOT money. Turk sees cryptos as a stepping stone toward digital/tokenised gold moving between parties. Each agree that BTC, whatever its near-term moves, is more of a NASDAQ asset than anything even closely resembling gold as a store of value.

The bond market, also addressed with sober concern, is described as unsustainably broken. This leads directly to a “fiat scare” in which stocks could only be “saved” via more currency-destroying liquidity. This, von Greyerz and Turk confirm, only makes the case for physical gold and silver all the more obvious. Egon further reminds that, unlike prior historical lessons in stock, bond and currency implosions, the modern crisis today (as evidenced by Turk’s Fear Index) is not local but global, and hence all the more destabilizing.

In this watershed backdrop of escalating debt, currency and geopolitical risks–all of which exceed the IQs and policy options of current global leadership–the topic of gold revaluation as a temporary “fix” is raised. Turk makes a case for an inevitable (hardly near-term) return to the Constitutional money which Nixon jettisoned in 1971. Both share larger concerns of weakening rather than strengthening global leadership, rising trends of political repression/social instability and, perhaps most tragically, escalating war risks.

In such a backdrop, the case for physical precious metal ownership outside of such a compromised financial system makes more sense than ever.

About Egon von Greyerz

Born with dual Swiss/Swedish citizenship, Egon's education was mainly in Sweden. Egon von Greyerz began his professional life in Geneva as a banker and thereafter spent 17 years as the Finance Director and Executive Vice-Chairman of Dixons Group Plc. During that time, Dixons expanded from a small photographic retailer to a FTSE 100 company and the largest consumer electronics retailer in the U... More...

Egon von Greyerz
Founder and Chairman
VON GREYERZ AG
Zurich, Switzerland
Phone: +41 44 213 62 45

VON GREYERZ AG's global client base strategically stores an important part of their wealth in Switzerland in physical gold and silver outside the banking system. VON GREYERZ is pleased to deliver a unique service to our highly esteemed wealth preservation clientele in over 90 countries.

VONGREYERZ.gold
Contact Us

Articles may be republished if full credits are given with a link to VONGREYERZ.GOLD
Recommended Reading
https://vongreyerz.gold/content/uplo...e-Disaster.png

Egon von Greyerz & James Turk: Past Lessons of Future Disaster

In this informal yet compelling conversation, two iconic veterans of the precious metals space, Egon von Greyerz and James Tur2k, bring needed financial AND historical perspective to evolving (and eerily foreseeable) cracks in the global financial system. Both reminisce upon a discussion they enjoyed nearly 15 years prior. Not surprisingly, much of what was discussed/warned […]

Egon von Greyerz
August 15, 2025
https://vongreyerz.gold/content/uplo...uperiority.png

US Flip-Flops on Swiss Tariffs: Get Out of US/”Dodge City” for Swiss Stability

With U.S. tariff policy by Tweet changing almost daily, VON GREYERZ principals Egon von Greyerz and Matthew Piepenburg sat down over the weekend to address Trump’s latest 39% import duty on Switzerland – but within hours of the recording, and as Egon surmised therein, Trump flip-flopped yet again and dropped the gold tariffs. Piepenburg began […]

Egon von Greyerz
August 11, 2025
https://vongreyerz.gold/content/uplo...Second-Act.png
1970s, 2000s, 2020s… A Déjà Vu In Two Acts – Second Act

Since the price of gold was freed by the final separation of sovereign currencies from gold following the closure of the gold window on August 15, 1971, gold has experienced three bull markets: in the 1970s, in the 2000s and in the current decade. A comparison of these three major gold bull markets shows that […]
Ronnie Stoeferle

July 27, 2025

https://vongreyerz.gold/dist/images/...ad3.d038f5.png
Categories
Egon's Publications Fiat Money Global Debt NASDAQ Uncategorized Videos & Interviews

Videos
https://vongreyerz.gold/dist/images/...go2.a9359f.png

Why Gold Critical Gold Questions Precious Metal Charts

Risks Political / Historical Risk Banking Risk Currency Risk Market Risk

More FAQs Contact Us

Privacy Policy, Disclaimer, Imprint, & Terms of Use
https://vongreyerz.gold/content/uplo...facebook-1.svg https://vongreyerz.gold/content/uplo...linkedin-1.svg https://vongreyerz.gold/content/uplo...-youtube-6.svg https://vongreyerz.gold/content/uplo...9/x-logo-1.svg https://vongreyerz.gold/content/uplo...5/substack.svg

2025 VON GREYERZ AG
Back to top

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

#15,275
Aug 15, 2025 9:25am Aug 15, 2025 9:25am

BenjaminIs
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts

Skip to content
+41 44 213 62 45
English
Von Greyerz | Gold Switzerland
Home
Services
Family Office
About Us
Insights
Why Gold
Risks
FAQs
Contact
Gold Storage in Banks? Think Again.

By Matthew Piepenburg

Partner
July 12, 2021
facebook sharing buttonemail sharing buttontwitter sharing buttonprint sharing buttonpinterest sharing button
For informed investors who have successfully traversed the tired Bitcoin vs. Gold debate and recognized the critical importance of owning physical (as opposed to paper/ETF) gold as an obvious antidote to globally debased currencies and openly systemic financial and banking risk, you have, thankfully, recognized precious metals as historically unmatched safe-haven assets. Gold storage, however, presents more questions that must be addressed by investors.

For years, we have bluntly explained why precious metal ownership is so essential to the far-sighted wealth preservation objectives of sophisticated investors, both individual and institutional. But on the wise and hence contrarian road to precious metal ownership, what good is the journey if the destination itself is unsound?

That is, does it make any sense if your safe-haven assets are then stored/held in unsafe institutions (i.e., commercial bullion banks and/or other precious metal dealers) who are themselves integral parties to the very broken system (and systemic risk) you originally set out to avoid?

Below, we therefore look at the many and all-too real (yet all-too carefully hidden) risks of storing gold within a fractured banking system, and underscore the need to select only the safest private vault options for serious gold storage and liquidity.

Bullion Storage in Big Banks—Anything but Safe
As our recent report on the Basel III regulations suggested, the world’s major commercial banks are virtue-signalling the need to avoid (or more likely, prepare for) another banking crisis.

Imagine that?

Specifically, the latest regulations require (among other things) that banks hold greater percentages of safe, “allocated” tier 1 gold (i.e., physical gold) on their balance sheets and reduce their levels of unsafe (i.e., fake) “unallocated” tier 3 paper gold.

Imagine that?

But if you think the recent regulatory lipstick on the pig of big-bank balance sheets makes such name-brand institutions safer in general (and for gold in particular), we’d humbly suggest you think again.

Decades ago, we created Matterhorn Asset Management to protect our own (and partners) wealth preservation assets, developing the safest system in the world for precious metal acquisition, handling and storage.

Only a few years later, we extended our services to outside investors. The evolution of Matterhorn came not from being gold bugs, natural pessimists nor even anti-bankers.

Instead, we were simply clear-eyed witnesses to real events in global debt, currency, risk-asset and banking markets; for this reason alone, private metal vaulting, done correctly, is not a niche opportunity, but an absolute necessity. Period.

We further understood and accepted the powers of collective thinking, even collective madness.

Toward this end, there is an understandable sense of safety in numbers as well as faith in the familiar, which includes the leading commercial banks and their highly-credentialed big brothers—from the Bank of International Settlements and the IMF to national central banks.

But it’s also worth noting that those very same banks have been disappointing and mismanaging their clients (and global financial systems) with tragic consistency for years, as the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 is only one of so many recent reminders.

In short, for those trusting familiar banking names (rather than blunt banking facts) for storing their precious metals, we feel they are doing so at great and quantifiable risk.

Here’s why.

The Allocated vs. Unallocated Shell Game
Many well-meaning and high-ticket private bank clients will be warmly welcomed to open bullion accounts at Bank A, Bank B, C, or D, etc.

In fact, the private bankers will often sweeten the deal by charging only a “general fee,” yet foregoing any gold storage fees, because, hey, you’re such an important client, right?

Well, not really.

First, it’s important to understand that modern banks are not in the silver and gold storage business—they are in the credit and fee-churn business; they make their margins executing paper transactions.

Gold storage, however, is a lower margin business, which means hardly any big banks manage their own vaults; instead, they sub-contract out the work, smile and then lever client assets.

The reason there’s no storage fees for such “bullion accounts” is largely because there’s no actual gold or silver to store within that glossy-brochured and well-known bank account.

–The Unallocated Bullion
This is because the banks are placing your precious metals in “unallocated” paper/transactional (i.e., levered accounts), which despite Basel III, are still very much in vogue.

Within the fine-print of the offering documents to these “unallocated” bullion accounts is the buried reality that the precious metals are not in fact individually owned by the client, but by the bank first.

Stated otherwise, there are no gold bars or coins with your names assigned to them waiting for delivery when needed.

This makes the client an unsecured creditor to the bank, not a direct owner of the gold that the bank is allegedly “storing” for him/her.

Thus, should another banking crisis, bank holiday or depositor-freeze occur for any number of likely reasons/scenarios, bullion clients will be standing in line behind other bank creditors rather than taking immediate delivery of their gold and silver.

And if the bank tanks, well, they’re really out of luck, aren’t they?

If this seems unimaginable, then just imagine Morgan Stanley’s “silver program,” which had no silver precisely when clients needed it the most.

It took clients a lot of lawyers and a lot of months to finally get the very metals they “owned.”

Or imagine HSBC.

In 2008, clients suddenly asked for delivery of the metals they’d hitherto thought they’d never need, until, of course, an actual banking (i.e., liquidity) crisis reared its inevitable yet ignored head.

During the GFC of 2008, HSBC closed its retail vaults, requiring gold clients to wait months for actual delivery.

Imagine that?

–The Allocated Bullion
For those aware of such unallocated account risks, the same banks will admire your sophistication and offer a better option, namely “allocated” bullion accounts in which clients are promised specific ownership of specific physical metals.

Good stuff, right?

Well, not so fast…

Even these allocated bullion accounts are riddled with risk.

That is, the bankers will likely overlook mentioning the various 3rd-party custodial vault contracts and intermediary middleman agreements they are often tied to in the long daisy-chain between your precious metal master account documents and the final resting place of your actual gold and silver.

The ubiquitous use of such middlemen and third-party custodian/vault services in even allocated bullion accounts creates a number of problems.

First, there is the inherent counterparty and operational risks associated with the potential failure, insolvency or mismanagement of any of the intervening middlemen, custodians and sub-custodians—from outright fraud to inadequate (i.e., loophole-heavy) insurance coverage.

By the way, if 2008 taught us anything, it’s that the big banks are loaded with middlemen, counterparty and operational risks…

Secondly, the number of intervening parties between your account name and the final vault (which can change without your knowledge) means as a bank client, you cannot speak to (or access) your vault (i.e., your stored gold and silver) directly; only your bank or its contractual middleman can do so.

But what if that banker or middleman is not picking up the phone in the midst of the next banking crisis, assuming you recognize that such crises are anything but extinct?

Thirdly, even in an “allocated bullion account” wherein you are promised direct ownership of say 100 ounces of gold, your 100 ounces are likely part of (i.e., comingled with) a 400-ounce bar of which you only own a ¼ interest/claim.

How long do you think it will take to get that shared, 400-ounce bar refined to ensure your immediate delivery/liquidity of the 100 ounces you own and need?

In short, if you are concerned about unallocated and even allocated bullion accounts in a big bank near you, what better options are available?

Fair question. Here’s a fair answer.

Segregated Bullion Accounts—The Superior Option
For sophisticated (i.e., serious) precious metal investors seeking direct ownership of the highest-grade precious metal assets in specified sizes, owned entirely in their names (and with direct access to the private vaults that store their silver and gold), segregated accounts held outside of this openly fractured and highly risk-heavy banking system are the superior option.

That said, not every private and segregated bullion account service or vault is the same, and a number of critical due diligence concerns need to be addressed and confirmed.

First, most bullion banks, especially in the EU, don’t even offer segregated bullion accounts.

Again, their primary goals are high fees and high margins, for which gold storage is not compelling enough to their bottom-line.

When selecting segregated bullion accounts in private vaults, the key and primary considerations to tackle first are jurisdiction and vault reputation.

1. Jurisdiction
Precious metal owners understand that such wealth preservation assets shine brightest in times of crisis.

They also understand that in times of crisis, banks (and the governments with which they collude) will throw out the old rule books and create new rules mid-game, typically at the expense of their clients.

In times of crisis, money and metals “on deposit” at traditional banks will be at the most risk.

Even if the bank stores your bullion in their own vaults, we have seen many examples of the gold not being there when the client wanted to transfer the same to a private vault.

So far, the banks have always replaced the missing bars with other bars but in the event of bank insolvency or other “shocks,” that would obviously not happen, meaning delivery, at best, would be blocked for months, and at worst, totally lost.

Thus, when selecting a jurisdiction for private gold vaulting outside the banking system, one must select a jurisdiction with the best available laws and historical reputation for investor protection, foreign or domestic.

Given that many precious metal realists hope for the best yet prepare for the worst, they further recognize the admittedly real possibility of confiscation risk in the otherwise unwanted yet real event of a shock to the global monetary system.

In the event of such confiscation, be it physical or via tax methods, holding actual precious metals outside of government-controlled banking systems provides added time and protection to segregated bullion account holders.

Toward this end, client privacy is an equally important component of the jurisdictional choice.

In superior bullion jurisdictions like Switzerland, for example, physical gold storage in Swiss-owned vaults represented by Swiss-originated wealth managers is not considered a “financial account” subject to tax reporting under IRS rules or the Common Reporting Standards of the OECD.

In short, client privacy is fully and legally preserved in such a jurisdiction.

Such privacy, however, must not be confused as an open-door to (or assistance for) nefarious clientele.

The most credible offshore vault management services strictly adhere to all necessary compliance laws, namely: KYC (Know Your Client), AML (Anti Money Laundering) and full source-of-funds declarations.

In this way, private clients can be confident that their precious metals are held in fully compliant (i.e., “clean company”) vaults.

Finally, in times of equally unwanted but equally possible social chaos, one needs a vault jurisdiction which provides reliable access to a major international airport, as well as, ideally, similar access to a private air strip.

2. Private Vault & Service Reputation
As to private vaulting services, no two are alike and informed investors must carefully consider the following factors.

– Security
Once jurisdiction is determined, it’s equally critical to select a private vault service which has the most reputable gold storage history as well as military-grade security systems, addressing everything from fully safe-guarded (backed-up) client data, direct 24/7 metals access and IT protocols against malware to protection against natural disasters or even EMP threats.

Investors, moreover, should ascertain that the private vaults and service providers are storing actual metals as opposed to mere “contracts on demand” for the same.

– Focus and Ownership Structure
Unlike banks, the most reputable client managers for segregated private, vaulted gold storage are exclusively engaged in that service, and that service only.

In fact, such singular yet professional focus on private vaulting for gold storage and other specified client assets was once the sole domain of the classic banking services of the past, before modern banking became distorted by leverage, derivative desks, fractional reserve banking and other such high-risk, high-profit and high-consequence behavior.

In selecting segregated, private bullion services, investors should also confirm that the wealth advisory service is fully-owned and independent, as opposed to being a subsidiary of some larger, and potentially compromised entity.

Again, the entire aim of segregated bullion ownership is to avoid the very counterparty and operational risks otherwise attendant to commercial bank bullion accounts.

– Liquidity Options
For larger accounts, you will also wish to work with private bullion storage providers who offer instant liquidity options for two-way transfers in all major currencies in the event you choose to liquify all or a portion of your metal assets into actual currencies when and if needed.

-Enterprise Solvency
When selecting the best private bullion vaulting services, it is equally necessary to consider the same insolvency risks which prompted similar concerns for avoiding the traditional banks.

That is, what if the private service itself becomes insolvent?

Toward that end, it is critical to first understand and confirm the service’s own, and hopefully robust, balance sheet. Ask and you shall (or should) receive.

Additionally, any onboarding documentation must be explicit that all segregated bullion is held in the client’s name, not the service provider; thus, even in an event of facility insolvency, this would in no way impair the client’s vault access, given that the precious metals are always stored as the client’s asset, not the service provider’s.

-Fully Insured or Just “Insured”?
Fully insured bullion is the only bullion worth holding in private vaults, but look carefully at the fine print. Is the bullion insured against mysterious disappearance? Are you, the client, added as a loss-payee, which means are you (or just the vault or client representative) the ultimate insured party?

What are the coverage exclusions? The coverage maximums? Who are the underwriters? Lloyd’s or someone you’ve never heard of? Is the transporting of the metals to or from your vault fully insured as well, and if so, by whom and how much?

-Metal Quality
Traditional bullion banks may seem like the safest source of authenticated precious metals with clean chains of integrity, but counterfeit gold is an issue that even JP Morgan, for example, is all too familiar…

Sophisticated bullion investors should work only with private vaults and services that acquire client precious metals directly from the most reputed sources and refiners; greater than 70% of all gold bars worldwide are in fact refined out of Switzerland.

Not only must such metals be marked, recorded and warehouse-receipted in the client’s name from inception, but acquired in the bar size selected by the client.

-Transport
Secure delivery of client precious metals is an integral component of any credible private vaulting service, and the premier services will engage only the most reputable and fully-insured carriers (i.e., Brinks, Loomis etc.).

Regardless of one’s domicile nation, your private vault service should also possess the full logistical sophistication to arrange pick-up and delivery (as well as all cross-border protocols covering any applicable duties or Value Added Tax) of your metals to any location in the world upon immediate request.

–Bullion Storage Fees
For the manifold reasons discussed above, superior private vaulting of segregated bullion is typically priced higher than the fees of traditional bullion banks.

Each private bullion service will charge based on the extent of its services (vault quality, logistical sophistication, transportation services, liquidity capabilities, insurance range, refiner relationships, etc.).

Although it’s often true that “you get what you pay for,” the slightly higher fees for higher security and superior service can only be justified if the foregoing service advantages are verified.

Superior vaulting and security are costly; anyone charging nominal fees is either skimping on these two critical areas or subsidising the cost from trading activities rather than gold storage.

Given the immense importance of wealth preservation via carefully owned precious metals, higher fees more than justify the higher service and security of the premier vaulting services.

A Summing Up
Despite a long and sordid history of client mismanagement (deposit freezes, illiquidity, non-transparency, counterparty risk, operational failures, “tainted” assets, bank emergencies, changing regulations etc.) and the open systemic distortions in the global financial system, traditional bullion banks remain the go-to choice for many bullion owners for no other reason than they “trust the TBTF names.”

Naturally, this perplexes but does not surprise us. Pack-thinking, even among bank clients, is nothing new.

Should the major global banks experience another “emergency,” no one can foresee its length or depth with certainty, but what we can say with certainty is that the banks will own these bullion assets ahead of their customers—and will do their best to hold (restrict) them as long as they can, as that… after all, is what banks do.

What will tomorrow’s banking rules be? How long will the next “emergency” last? What liquidity limits will be imposed? Will delivery be partial or full?

For those wishing to avoid such known and unknown risks, the clear path forward is one that leads investors away from commercial bullion banking pitfalls and toward the most transparent and trusted private vault services in the safest jurisdictions.

About Matthew Piepenburg
Matt began his finance career as a transactional attorney before launching his first hedge fund during the NASDAQ bubble of 1999-2001. Thereafter, he began investing his own and other HNW family funds into alternative investment vehicles while operating as a General Counsel, CIO and later Managing Director of a single and multi-family office. Matthew worked closely as well with Morgan Stanley’s... More...
Matthew Piepenburg
Partner

VON GREYERZ AG
Zurich, Switzerland
Phone: +41 44 213 62 45

VON GREYERZ AG global client base strategically stores an important part of their wealth in Switzerland in physical gold and silver outside the banking system. VON GREYERZ is pleased to deliver a unique and exceptional service to our highly esteemed wealth preservation clientele in over 90 countries.
VONGREYERZ.gold
Contact Us

Articles may be republished if full credits are given with a link to VONGREYERZ.GOLD

Recommended Reading
VON GREYRZ_U.S. Tariffs on Swiss Gold Dodge City Desperation vs. Swiss Superiority
US Flip-Flops on Swiss Tariffs: Get Out of US/”Dodge City” for Swiss Stability Controls
With U.S. tariff policy by Tweet changing almost daily, VON GREYERZ principals Egon von Greyerz and Matthew Piepenburg sat down over the weekend to address Trump’s latest 39% import duty on Switzerland—but within hours of the recording, and as Egon surmised therein, Trump flip-flopped yet again and dropped the gold tariffs. Piepenburg began the conversation […]

Egon von Greyerz
August 11, 2025
VON GREYERZ_1970s, 2000s, 2020s... A Déjà Vu In Two Acts - Second Act
1970s, 2000s, 2020s… A Déjà Vu In Two Acts – Second Act
Since the price of gold was freed by the final separation of sovereign currencies from gold following the closure of the gold window on August 15, 1971, gold has experienced three bull markets: in the 1970s, in the 2000s and in the current decade. A comparison of these three major gold bull markets shows that […]

Ronnie Stoeferle
July 27, 2025
VON GREYERZ_The End of an Era Gold, Debt & the Truth Behind the Coming Monetary Rese
The End of an Era: Gold, Debt & the Truth Behind the Coming Monetary Reset
In this candid and far-reaching conversation, Egon von Greyerz joins Lynette Zang to expose the uncomfortable realities behind fiat money, exponential debt, tokenisation, and the illusion of digital freedom. From the collapsing credibility of governments and central banks to the unstoppable rise of physical gold, they discuss why we’re facing the greatest wealth transfer in […]

Egon von Greyerz
July 25, 2025
Search

Gold Matters
Categories
Articles
Banks
Egon's Publications
Family Office
Matt's Publications
Uncategorized
Videos
Gold Switzerland Logo
Home
7 Principles of Protection
Services
Service Menu
Vault Options
Transport
Metals of Highest Fineness
About Us
Story
Values
Team
Insights
Articles
Videos and Interviews
Subscribe to our newsletter
Why Gold
Critical Gold Questions
Precious Metal Charts
Risks
Political / Historical Risk
Banking Risk
Currency Risk
Market Risk
More
FAQs
Contact Us
Privacy Policy, Disclaimer, Imprint, & Terms of Use

2025 VON GREYERZ AG
Back to top

#15,276
Edited 2:15pm Aug 15, 2025 2:00pm | Edited 2:15pm

BenjaminIs
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/...ndependent-fed

https://www.zerohedge.com/images/logo/full.svg

https://www.zerohedge.com/images/icons/print-icon.svg
Stockman: America Don't Need an "Independent" Fed

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
Friday, August 15, 2025 - 04:20 PM

Authored by David Stockman via InternationalMan.com,
Talk about hiding in plain sight.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=UAwnMQX0

Here is possibly the most important graph ever about the flagging state of the US economy and the utter failure of Washington’s constant efforts during the last two decades to “stimulate” improved outcomes.

To wit, the US industrial production index—which measures the sum of manufacturing, energy, mining, and utility output—marched straight uphill at a 3.3% annual rate between 1954 and 2007.

Yet since then, it has essentially plateaued, rising by just 0.10% per annum during the past 17 years.
That’s right. The growth rate of America’s industrial foundation has plunged by 97% since the pre-crisis peak in Q4 2007. And yet June’s industrial production index, which was up a small tad, gets headlined as a sign of economic strength. The longer-term chart below screams the very opposite.

After all, no logic says an economy can remain healthy and prosperous that is increasingly based on educating a shrinking number of kids, feeding an expanding national waistline at fast food joints, and changing adult diapers among the soaring share of the population composed of octogenarians. At the end of the day, you have to make things for the population to pay for taking in each other’s laundry.

As it has happened, however, during the 48 months since June 2021 the industrial production index has been negative or flat nearly half the time on a month-over-month basis. For all practical purposes, the US industrial economy is just playing “mother may I”, advancing one step forward and the next step backwards month after month. And if that’s “strong” or even a sign of anything except decaying performance, we’d suggest the English language has lost all meaning.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=vL6ZUoNM

As it happens, the disconnect becomes even more dramatic when you compare the production of goods since Q4 2007 with the constant dollar value of goods consumption (PCE) during the same period.

That is to say, cumulative real consumption of goods (durable and non-durable) rose by 62% but domestic industrial output was up by only 1.4%!
Obviously, the yawning gap got filled by imports. On the margin, therefore, the growth of goods consumption during the last 17 years was based on imports financed by massive current account deficits.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=pNr950Wu

Needless to say, the above disconnect was not due to a want of trying using Washington-based stimmies. The index lines for Federal Debt and the Fed’s balance sheet since 1954 show the opposite pattern to that embedded in the industrial index chart above. That is to say, growth was slow to moderate between 1954 and 2007, but then took off like a bat out of hell thereafter.

Thus, between 1954 and 2007, US Treasury debt outstanding grew by 6.5% per annum, while the Fed’s balance sheet expanded by 5.6% per year. During the last 17 years, by contrast, the public debt rose by 10.7% per year, and the Fed’s balance sheet grew by 13.3% per year.

To reprise, industrial production growth has essentially ground to a halt at 0.1% per year since 2007, notwithstanding a 13.3% per annum expansion of Fed credit. Self-evidently, all that high-powered central bank money was going somewhere, but it was not into the production of goods on Main Street.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=O6SgX7jA

There is no mystery, however, as to where it went. Since Q4 2007, the NASDAQ 100 index has risen by 86-fold. In turn, the net worth of the top 1% of US households has soared from $18.9 trillion to $49.4 trillion.
Stated differently, industrial production went nowhere, even as the net worth of the top 1.35 million US households soared by nearly $31 trillion.

And yet and yet. Bubble vision today was replete with Wall Street experts rebuking the Donald in the name of the Fed’s purportedly sacrosanct “independence” for his impending plan to fire Jay Powell.

Then again, the Latin phrase “cui bono” immediately comes to mind. The answer to “who benefits” from the Fed’s so-called “independence” is surely not Main Street America.

The fact is, the Fed is neither a democratically accountable arm of the state nor an agency of the free market. It was, is, and may always be a tool of the traders and gamblers who inhabit the canyons of Wall Street.

To be sure, the Donald’s comprehension of monetary policy is about as wrong-headed as it gets, but his imminent frontal attack on the rogue institution domiciled in the Eccles Building may well be the only way to upend its destructive reign.

The data doesn’t lie—and neither do the consequences. As Washington’s debt-fueled “stimulus” regime enriches Wall Street while hollowing out Main Street, the illusion of prosperity continues to mask an industrial and monetary decay that cannot go on forever. The cracks are widening, and the next phase may bring seismic changes most Americans are unprepared for. That’s why we’ve put together a free special report: “Guide to Surviving and Thriving During an Economic Collapse.” If you want to understand what’s coming—and how to protect yourself, your assets, and your freedom—don’t wait until the crisis hits full force. Click here to claim your free copy now. You owe it to yourself to be informed—and ready.

Want to know more?

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=RoJTSEoz
Deep State Data Manipulation Threatens Economic Stability

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=4EcDbKVa
Schiff: Interest Rates Should Be Higher, Not Lower

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...&itok=oK3vC_dj

Think Uncle Sam Owes $37 Trillion? It's Far Worse Than That
NEVER MISS THE NEWS THAT MATTERS MOST
ZEROHEDGE DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX
Receive a daily recap featuring a curated list of must-read stories.

https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east...NGh26whPic.jpg Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?

Tech at Dot-Com Extremes, Retail Roars, Skew Screams, and Cash is Gone
SPX is pressing against its upper Bollinger Band — not an automatic sell signal, but worth noting as tech concentration, extreme positioning, and record valuations set the stage for sharper downside if megacaps crack. Meanwhile, retail keeps buying, cash levels stay thin, and skew suggests traders are quietly paying up for tail risk.

Nasdaq Tops Dot-Com Era in Historic Valuation Surge

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...0%281%29_0.jpg
Belgian Blue Bull

The Nasdaq’s market cap relative to U.S. M2 money supply has surged to a record 145%—overtaking the Dot-Com peak. Mega-cap tech dominance, record asset values, and concentrated leadership define today’s market backdrop, even as broader investor flows remain modest.
AI CAPEX Mania – Tech Titans Outspend the Rest of the Market 2-to-1

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...image-296.jpeg
Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Broadcom have ramped up capex by 60% in the past year — six times the market’s pace — now accounting for over 30% of all U.S. non-financial capex. Despite record spending, free cash flow yield for the Big 7 sits at just 2%, fueling debate over whether the AI boom is a bubble or not.

Europe’s Defence Bubble Runs Out of Bullets
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...20%2862%29.jpg
RHMG’s bull run turned dome-shaped — 21d just crossed 50d negative. Is this another European non-tech mania implosion?
Hedge Funds Slash Risk, Torch Russell, as Buybacks Go Brrr
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...ge-134%202.jpg
Hedge funds cut leverage last week, with gross and net levels now on the lower side of their typical range, while tech saw its fastest net selling pace in over four months. Meanwhile, shorts in the Russell 2000 hit a new record, and MAG-7’s 34% weight milestone echoes past patterns of short-term rallies followed by steep pullbacks.

Sign Up For ZH Premium
Today's Top Stories

#15,277
Aug 16, 2025 6:30pm Aug 16, 2025 6:30pm

BenjaminIs
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...etter-expected

Escobar: Putin-Trump Summit Went Much Better Than Expected

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg

by Tyler Durden
Saturday, August 16, 2025 - 04:55 PM

There are few details about what exactly was discussed in the meeting, but Russian officials have made it clear that they’re pleased with how it went, says veteran geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar.

There were even some indications that a serious US-Russia reset could be on the horizon.
"Even according to President Trump himself, they agreed on several important points, and only a few are left.
So this implies, serious discussions not only about Ukraine, a possible resolution in Ukraine, and of course we we have no idea about the terms and the parameters, but a reset, a serious reset of US-Russia relations."

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...etter-expected

#15,278
Aug 16, 2025 6:49pm Aug 16, 2025 6:49pm

BenjaminIs
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts

https://www.whatdoesitmean.com/logo322.jpg

World's Largest English Language News Service with Over 500 Articles Updated Daily

"The News You Need Today…For The World You’ll Live In Tomorrow."

What You Aren’t Being Told About The World You Live In

How The “Conspiracy Theory” Label Was Conceived To Derail The Truth Movement

How Covert American Agents Infiltrate the Internet to Manipulate, Deceive and Destroy Reputations

August 16, 2025
Putin Urgently Returns To Moscow After Cancelling Lunch With Trump At Historic Alaska Summit
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers

A weighty new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today first noting that the first visit in ten years made by President Putin to the United States lasted just over five hours, says President Putin and President Donald Trump completed three-hours of talks with a limited circle of delegate during that time—President Putin declared after the talks ended: “Today, President Trump is saying that if he was the President back then, there would be no war, and I’m quite sure that it would indeed be so...I can confirm that”, swiftly after which it was revealed: “Putin is urgently flying to Moscow, lunch with Trump has been canceled...Negotiations in the expanded composition of the US and Russian delegations were also canceled”.

Following the historic Alaska Summit, this report notes, President Trump assessed: “I think those are points that we negotiated, and those are points that we largely have agreed on...I think we're pretty close to a deal...Ukraine has to agree to it...Maybe they'll say no”, then early this morning he posted the announcement: “A great and very successful day in Alaska!... The meeting with President Vladimir Putin of Russia went very well, as did a late-night phone call with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine, and various European Leaders, including the highly respected Secretary General of NATO...It was determined by all that the best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere Ceasefire Agreement, which often does not hold up...President Zelenskyy will be coming to D.C., the Oval Office, on Monday afternoon...If all works out, we will then schedule a meeting with President Putin...Potentially, millions of people's lives will be saved...Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Immediately following President Trump posting his announcement, this report continues, unelected Ukrainian Dictator Vladimir Zelensky confirmed he will attend the White House meeting on Monday—the Telegraph newspaper in London then revealed: “At least 650,000 Ukrainian men of fighting age have fled the country since the conflict with Russia escalated in 2022”—the United States Army Europe and Africa logistics arm Operation Atlantic Resolve also announced: “As of this quarter, Ukraine had nearly exhausted its supplies of Soviet and Russian artillery and rocket ammunition, making the Ukrainian armed forces almost entirely reliant on Western assistance”—and the Ukrainian government newspaper Kyiv Independent raged: “Sickening...Shameful...And in the end, useless...Those were the words that came to mind when we watched the Alaska Summit unfold...Trump didn’t get what he wanted...But Putin?...He sure did”.

Shortly after President Putin returned to Moscow, this report details, Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev posted the assessment: “1. A full-fledged mechanism for high-level meetings between Russia and the US has been restored...It is peaceful, free of ultimatums or threats...2. The Russian president presented our conditions for ending the conflict in Ukraine to the US leader in person and in detail...3. Following nearly three hours of talks, the White House host has refused to escalate pressure on Russia...At least for now”.

Joining the assessment made by Security Council Deputy Chairman Medvedev about the historic Alaska Summit, this report concludes, Reserve Lieutenant Colonel Oleg Ivannikov, an advisor to the Russian Academy of Rocket and Artillery Sciences, observed: “The United States needs a respite: they are behind in terms of weapons, and it will be very difficult for them to catch up with the Russian Federation...Essentially, the US needs a timeout of 5–10 years to achieve the same successes in UAVs and hypersonic weapons...But this can also lead to cooperation, because Vladimir Putin has already paved the way for partnership by signing a decree that potentially allows American oil workers to return to Sakhalin-1...Thus, in Anchorage, without loud statements, transactions and papers, the meeting outlined the boundaries within which history would be written”.

[Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]

https://www.whatdoesitmean.com/djz21.png

August 16, 2025,

EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition that it is linked to its source at
WhatDoesItMean.Com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.

[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ have been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exemplified in numerous places, including HERE.]

[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green (1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]

[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]

American Brain Prize In War For Attention Meets Media Apocalypse

Orwellian “Two Minutes Hate” Collides With “Overton Window” Fracture

Return To Main Page

#15,279
Aug 16, 2025 7:10pm Aug 16, 2025 7:10pm

BenjaminIs
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts

Home / Macro / Price / Week Ahead: Will Jackson Hole Confab Show more of the Fed's Hand?

Week Ahead: Will Jackson Hole Confab Show more of the Fed's Hand?

August 16, 2025 Macro, Price
https://blogger.googleusercontent.co...ext%20week.png

The US dollar continued to unwind last month's gains. Last week it fell against all G10 currencies, but the dollar bloc. It was more mixed against emerging market currencies. The Argentine peso was the best performer, gaining 2% but the Argentine political and economic conditions appear to be worsening and a weaker rather than a stronger currency looks needed. Meanwhile, the market toyed with the idea of a 50 bp cut by the Federal Reserve next month, but the firmer than expected PPI and the apparent continued strength of the US consumer (retail sales grew at a 4% annualized rate in the three-months through July) left the Fed funds futures settle little changed on the week, pricing in more than a 90% chance of a quarter-point cut.

The main high-frequency economic data point in the coming days is the preliminary August PMI. However, the impact is likely to be minimal. The Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole conference in the second half of the week may draw attention. This year's theme is particularly timely: "Labour Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy." Among the G10 central banks, Sweden's Riksbank may wait until late in Q4 to continue its easing cycle, while a quarter-point cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is more likely. It will bring the target rate to 3.00%. The swaps market sees the terminal rate at 2.75%. The UK and Canada report July CPI figures, but neither central bank is likely to cut rates next month, and by the time they meet again, they will have more current data in hand.

US
Drivers: It may not be the consensus, but we continue to see the dollar's direction to be strongly influenced by US rates. It is not coincidental that US two- and 10-year rates have fallen this year, except in May and July, and the Dollar Index fell in the first six months of the year before bouncing in July. The break of the pattern was in May. Rates rose, but DXY fell, though the least since January. Some Fed official comments, coupled with the PCE deflator implications of the higher PPI report, have dampened the budding speculation of a 50 bp cut next month.

Data: This week's data will likely have a negligible impact on the outlook for next month's FOMC meeting, but the Fed's annual conference in Jackson Hole (August 21-23) could provide additional colour. Powell was clear last month that given the reduced supply of labor (immigration policy) and weaker demand (slowing jobs growth), the unemployment rate is particularly useful as a gauge of the balance of the supply and demand for labor. Housing starts may help economists forecast Q3 GDP (residential investment), existing home sales and preliminary August PMI pose headline risk but are not the markets' focus. The market also seems somewhat less sensitive to the Philadelphia Fed's survey, as it is too early in the month to necessarily be representative. The minutes from the late July FOMC meeting will be scrutinized. Recall that even though two governors dissented from the decision to stand pat, the market initially gave it a hawkish hearing and took short-term rates and the dollar higher. In any event, the employment data a couple of days later seemed to put the issue to rest.

Prices: With last week's losses, the Dollar Index overshot the (61.8%) retracement of the July 1-August 1 rally. It frayed, but did not close below, the trendline connecting the July lows, which begins the new week near 97.70. Below there, the low from late July, near 97.10, beckons. The Dollar Index has fallen by about 2.6% since the August 1 high. Given the data and the fact that the market has more than a 90% chance of a quarter-point cut next month, discounted, some consolidation seems warranted.

EMU
Drivers: The euro benefits by being the most liquid alternative to the US dollar. The inverse correlation between changes in the euro and changes in the two-year US yield is hovering near -0.70. Since the pandemic, it has rarely been more extreme. The rolling 60-day correlation reached almost -0.60 earlier this month, the most since early 2023. It is now a little around -0.55. The euro's inverse correlation with changes in the German two-year yield is around -0.25 over the past 30 and 60 sessions.

Data: The eurozone data this week includes the preliminary August PMI and June trade and construction figures. Negotiated wage settlements for Q2 will be reported. Recall that they rose by 2.45% in Q1 25, the least since the end of 2021. The bar for another rate cut is high, and the data does not have the heft to be impactful. The swaps market price has slightly less than a 10% chance of a cut next month and almost a 25% chance of a cut at the following meeting in late October.

Prices: The euro's recovery from last month's slide continued last week and the single currency reached $1.1730 to recoup a little more than three-quarter of the recent loss. Ahead of the late July high (~$1.1790), the euro needs to overcome the trendline connecting the July highs. It is found near $1.1750 at the start of the new week. A close below $1.1600 weakens the technical tone.

PRC
Drivers: Beijing is committed to keeping the yuan broadly shadowing the US dollar. This is unlikely to change any time soon. That the yuan is undervalued against the dollar is a dog-bites-man story. All the G10 currencies but the Swiss franc are undervalued according to the OECD's model of purchasing power parity. By this calculation, the euro, yen, and Canadian dollar are undervalued by more than the yuan, but they all reflect an overvalued dollar.

Data: It is a subdued week for Chinese data. Without strong signals from Beijing, the banks will most likely keep the prime loan rates steady at 3.0% and 3.5% for the one-year and five-year tenors, respectively. SWIFT's July report of currency usage for global payments is not as significant for the yuan as it may have been before China introduced its system for settling yuan trades, which, incidentally, according to reports, will not accept trades that imply a rate outside of the approved band. China's industrial output and retail sales were weaker than expected, but because the weakness could be attributed to the hot weather, rains, and floods, Beijing may not feel a strong urgency to respond, allowing the current fiscal measures to run their course.

Prices: Few of China's many critics acknowledge that the PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at the lowest since last November and has been adjusting the dollar's daily fix by more on average than it did at the start of the year. Still, with a few exceptions, the dollar has been in a CNH7.15-CNH7.20 trading range since late May. The 20- and 50-day moving averages have converged in the CNH7.1795-CNH7.1825 area. Yet, the dollar has fallen against the onshore yuan in all but four weeks since the end of April. The real complaint of the critics is not so much on direction as speed of the adjustment Beijing is managing.

JPN
Drivers: The dollar-yen exchange rate continues to be more sensitive to the changes in US interest rates than is generally recognized. The 30-day rolling correlation typically is higher with changes in the 10-year yield rather than the two-year yield, but that is not the case now. The correlation of changes in the exchange rate and the two-year yield is almost 0.80. It has not been above there since mid-2023. The 30-day correlation between changes in the exchange rate and the 10-year yield is slightly lower, near 0.75. It slipped below 0.10 in late May. The rolling 60-day correlation is near 0.66 for the two-year US yield and near 0.57 for the 10-year yield.

Data: With Q2 GDP already reported, the tertiary industry index is of, well, tertiary importance. Local participants do not put much weight on the PMI. The July trade balance, which has deteriorated from June in 14 of the past 20 years, may draw some interest given the disruption emanating from the US. Despite the undervalued yen, Japan reported a JPY2.22 trillion trade deficit in H1 25 compared with a JPY3.37 trillion deficit in H1 24 and a JPY7.05 trillion shortfall in H1 23. Exports on a year-over-year basis will likely fall for the third consecutive month in July. Lastly, Japan reports the July CPI. The Tokyo report came out a few weeks ago stole the thunder.

The headline and core rates likely eased by around 0.2% to 3.1%.

Prices: In an unusual commentary about foreign central banks, US Treasury Secretary Bessent opined that the Bank of Japan was slipping behind the inflation curve. Still, that and the stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP (with Q1 revised up) lifted expectations a little, but they are still less than what was anticipated in late July. On August 8 almost 15 bp of tightening this year was discounted. Now, a little more 17 bp is priced into overnight swaps (compared with 21 bp on July 24). Surveys suggest many are thinking that October would be a reasonable timeframe for the BOJ. Yet there are about 12 bp of tightening discounted, up from nearly 10 bp on August 8, but down from 14 bp at the end of July. The dollar was turned back last week from JPY148.50, a whisker below the (50%) retracement of the losses since the August 1 high, slightly shy of JPY151. Last week's low was near JPY146.20. A break could spur a test on the JPY145.85 area.

UK
Drivers: Sterling was bolstered by what was understood as a hawkish cut by the Bank of England earlier this month. In a close vote, it cut the base rate but increased its near-term inflation forecasts, and Governor Bailey sounded even more cautious about the forward guidance. This was followed in recent days by a stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP, helped by stronger government spending (1.2% quarter-over-quarter, after 0.4% contraction in Q1) and a mostly better-than-expected jobs report. The year-end rate implied by the swaps market is about 3.82%, up from 3.68% on August 1. Sterling remains sensitive to the dollar's broad direction. The rolling 30-day inverse correlation of changes in sterling and the Dollar Index is near 0.80, while the 60-day correlation is a little lower.

Data: Three high-frequency data points are beginning in the middle of the week. The first is the July CPI. The base effect makes for a difficult comparison. Headline CPI fell by 0.2% in July 2024. So even a flat reading for July would boost the year-over-year rate to 3.6% from 3.8% (rounding). The UK CPI rose at an annual rate of about 6.8% in Q2 and 2.4% in Q1. The second data point is the preliminary August PMI. The composite finished last year at 50.4 and was 51.5 in July. It is not expected to have changed much this month. The week concludes the July retail sales. The 0.6% gain in June, excluding gasoline, disappointed after the dramatic 2.9% drop in May. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey is for a 0.5% increase in July.

Prices: Sterling extended its recovery off the August 1 low (~$1.3140) to almost $1.3600 last week. It has retraced more than 61.8% of its July losses and settled above the down trendline connecting the July highs. The five-day moving average is almost a cent above the 20-day moving average, and the daily momentum indicators are rising. Pullbacks this month have been brief and shallow. The price action is constructive. There is little to stand in the way of a return to the multi-year high recorded on July 1 near $1.3790. Still, given the extent of the move and the upcoming data, we suspect consolidative forces will emerge shortly.

CANADA
Drivers: The Canadian dollar continues to appear sensitive to the US dollar's broad direction. The 30- and 60-day correlation of the changes of the USD dollar against the Canadian dollar and the Dollar Index are near their highest in over a year (both a little above 0.7)0. There was a slight inverse correlation with the US S&P 500 over the past 30 days, but it finished the week with a small positive correlation (~0.03), little different than the rolling 60-session correlation. The correlation of changes in the exchange rate and WTI has improved to the best in years (30-day correlation is near 0.60, and the 60-day correlation is around 0.25). The sign may be somewhat counter-intuitive as it indicates that the US dollar, not the Canadian dollar, has tended track oil prices a little better recently.

Data: The most important high-frequency report in the coming days is Canada's July CPI on August 19. Headline CPI rose at an annualized rate of around 1.6% in Q2 after a 6.0% annualized increase in Q1. In Q3 24, Canada's CPI fell, and it was flat in Q4 24. However, the base effect in July is favorable. Canada's CPI rose by 0.4% in July 2024 and as this drops out of the 12-month comparison the year-over-year rate will move lower from the 1.9% pace seen in June. The underlying core rates are firm, averaging 3.05% in June, up from 2.8% in March and 2.5% at the end of last year. After the disappointing July jobs report on August 8, the market has been fully discounting a rate cut for the December meeting. Canada also reports June portfolio flows. In the first five months of 2025, foreign investors sold about C$18 bln of Canadian stocks and bonds. In the January-May 2024 period, foreigners were net buyers of C$85 bln of Canada's financial assets. Still, knowing the portfolio flows in real time would not have helped trade the Canadian dollar. It fell by nearly 3% against the US dollar in the first five months of 2025 and rose nearly 4.5% against the greenback in the first five months of this year.

Prices: The US dollar rose to meet the (61.8%) retracement objective of the decline from the August 1 high seen near CAD1.3820. It consolidated before the weekend. It settled on session highs, and posted the highest close of the month. Follow-through buying sets the sights on that August 1 high (~CAD1.3880). The lower end of the recent range is around CAD1.3720. The momentum indicators are not generating a strong signal, though the five-day moving average is above the 20-day moving average, and both are rising.

Australia
Drivers: The Australian dollar remains sensitive to the broader movement of the US dollar. The rolling 30- and 60-day inverse correlation between changes in the Australian dollar and the Dollar Index is hovering around -0.75. It is near the most in a year. The inverse correlation of the changes between the Australian dollar and the US dollar against the Canadian dollar is slightly less (~0.85) over the past 30 sessions and a somewhat less over the past 60 sessions (~-0.72).

Data: After last week's 25 bp rate cut (to 3.60%) and labour market report, participants may not be sensitive to this week's preliminary August PMI and consumer inflation expectations survey. Recall that the composite PMI rose for the second consecutive month in July, the first back-to-back increase since February-March 2024. It stood at 53.8 in July, a new cyclical high. It was at 50.2 at the end of last year and 50.2 in August 2024.

Prices: Despite posting an outside down day on August 14, there was no follow-through selling of the Australian dollar ahead of the weekend. Instead, the Aussie held the week's low seen near $0.6480 on August 12 and pushed to almost $0.6525. While there may be some resistance in the $0.6540-50 area, last week's high (~$0.6570) may be more important from a technical perspective.

Mexico
Drivers: Changes in the greenback against the peso and Dollar Index are near the most correlated of the year, nearly 0.75 (for the past 30 sessions). They were inversely correlated for most of February. Since the end of Q1 24, the rolling 30-day correlation has spent little time above 0.60. The 60-day correlation set the high for the year, slightly above 0.65 in early August and is near there now. The correlation between changes in the exchange rate and changes in US interest rates is weak (<0.10). The 30-day correlation between changes in USD-MXN and USD-CAD rose to nearly 0.40 from the year's low recorded in late May through mid-June of less than 0.10.

Data: Data from the second quarter are likely to have a limited impact on the peso's exchange rate and the outlook for monetary policy. More important is the CPI reading for the first half of August. Yet before the central bank meets again (September 25), it will have the full month of August CPI and the first half of September's in hand. Also, the US tariff policy may be clearer. The current cash target rate is 7.75% and the swaps market sees a terminal rate of nearly 7.25%. A resumption of the Fed's easing cycle may give Banxico more room to maneuver.

Prices: The US dollar overshot the (61.8%) retracement of its losses against the Mexican peso this month on August 14. It rose slightly above MXN18.85 but settled below the retracement objective (~MXN18.80). Dollar sellers emerged and pushed the greenback below MXN18.70 before the weekend. Still, the price action warns that support near MXN18.50 is formidable. Initial support may be in the MN18.60-62 area.

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

#15,280
Aug 16, 2025 7:13pm Aug 16, 2025 7:13pm

BenjaminIs
| Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts

https://www.marctomarket.com/2025/08...of-end-of.html

Commercial Content
/
Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management
Reply to Thread
- 1 762 763 Page 764 765 766 782
- 1 Page 764 782

12 traders viewing now

Options

Similar Threads

Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management