What happen in the market today?

USD/JPY at its highest level since April

Yesterday, the Japanese Yen weakened amid the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% since December 2024. Yesterday, USD/JPY drew a long-bodied bullish candle with a shadow at the bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 149.533, a low of 147.804, and a close of 149.451, moving from the middle band to the upper band line.

The Fed is likely to maintain its policy stance in response to uncertainty driven by tariffs and inflation, despite pressure from the White House for interest rate cuts. Projections suggest the possibility of two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the end of 2025, but this depends on incoming economic data, particularly labor market and inflation data. US growth showed a recovery in Q2 2025, with GDP growth of 2.5% annually after a 0.5% contraction in Q1. The unemployment rate is stable at 4.1%-4.2%. US CPI inflation as of June 2025 rose to 2.7% annually, with core inflation of 2.9%.

The Bank of Japan also maintained its short-term policy rate at 0.5% at its July 2025 meeting, where it had been since January 2025. The BoJ demonstrated a cautious approach in exiting its ultra-loose policy amid persistent inflation and global uncertainty, particularly the impact of US tariffs. The BoJ is expected to raise its inflation projection for the current fiscal year to 2.5%, while maintaining below 2% for the next two years. There is strong speculation for another rate hike in late 2025 or early 2026, with October 2025 as a possible window. Japan's economic growth has slowed, contracting 0.2% annually in the last quarter due to weak consumption and exports. However, wage increases in the spring 2025 labor negotiations indicate improvement that could support future consumption. Japan's CPI inflation as of June 2025 was 3.3% annually, with core inflation also at 3.3%.

The USD/JPY will be heavily influenced by the monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of Japan, as well as economic data from both countries. The US appears to be adopting a wait-and-see approach, maintaining high interest rates to combat inflation. However, a rate cut later in the year could put downward pressure on the USD. Japan's current interest rate stance indicates its readiness for further policy tightening if inflation and wage growth are sustained. A potential BoJ rate hike would support the JPY.

US CPI inflation data remains above the Fed's 2% target. If inflation remains high, the Fed is likely to maintain a supportive interest rate environment for the USD. Japan's inflation above the BoJ's target for the fourth consecutive year provides encouragement for the BoJ to continue moving toward policy normalization, which would support the JPY.

The recovery in US GDP growth in Q2 2025 demonstrates economic resilience, supporting the USD. However, concerns about the impact of tariffs and slowing consumption could pose a barrier. Meanwhile, Japan's still-weak economic growth is a concern, although rising wages offer some hope. Sluggish consumption and weak exports could limit the strength of the JPY.

Today, the market will focus on the outcome of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting, which concludes today. Given that the BoJ is expected to maintain interest rates but may signal further tightening or revise its inflation projections upward, this could provide a boost to the JPY.

Given that the BoJ is on track to exit its ultra-loose policy stance, while the Fed is likely to refrain from cutting rates anytime soon despite pressure from Trump, monetary policy divergence is likely to support the JPY's strength relative to the USD in the medium term. However, today, July 31, 2025, the primary focus is the BoJ's announcement. If the BoJ delivers a more hawkish statement or significantly raises its inflation projections, we may see JPY appreciation. Conversely, if the BoJ is very cautious and does not give a strong signal for further tightening, buying pressure on USDJPY could re-emerge, especially if stronger US economic data emerges.

Silver prices fell near the lower band, extending the decline that began on July 23rd.

Yesterday, the XAG/USD pair drew a bearish candle with a long body and shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 37,264, a low of 36,202, and a close of 36,699 on FXOpen's platform. Silver's price movement has crossed the middle band from the upper side and reached the lower band line.

Silver is currently exhibiting complex movement. On the one hand, there are strong driving factors driving price increases. On the other hand, several sentiments are also holding back the price increase.

Factors supporting price increases include the Fed's dovish stance, with expectations that it will begin cutting interest rates in September and December 2025. Looser monetary policy tends to weaken the USD and increase the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver and gold. Industrial demand is also strong, particularly for solar panels, electronics, and other green technologies, which continue to rise. This growing demand provides a strong fundamental support for silver in the long term. Geopolitical and trade uncertainty can fuel demand for safe-haven assets like silver and gold. The threat of US trade tariffs on several trading partner countries, and the Russia-Ukraine war in the Middle East, also support silver amid global uncertainty. Silver supply is expected to be in deficit, which could lead to price increases as demand exceeds availability.

On the other hand, a strengthening USD is hampering silver. Despite expectations of future interest rate cuts, the US dollar remains supported by recent favorable economic data. A strong US dollar historically pressures silver prices because it makes them more expensive for investors holding other currencies. There is some trade optimism regarding a deal between the US and some of its trading partners, which could ease tensions, potentially reducing silver demand. Technically, there is a weakening bullish momentum, with signs of exhaustion. Silver recently experienced a correction from its highs, indicating profit-taking and a potential price reversal.

Recent US data, such as better-than-expected initial jobless claims, could support USD strength, although market sentiment remains focused on expectations of a Fed rate cut. Silver has declined from its high around 39.50, indicating strong resistance at that level. Investor sentiment data suggests that long positions are beginning to slow, which could signal the exhaustion of bullish momentum. However, the overall sentiment remains neutral to slightly bullish.

Fundamentally, silver still has support from expectations of looser monetary policy, strong manufacturing, and geopolitical uncertainty. However, caution is needed to monitor US economic data today, such as the NFP, PMI, and unemployment rate, which could trigger USD strength.

Bitcoin Consolidates After Significant Rally in July

BTCUSD indicates the market is in a consolidation phase following its July rally. Yesterday, BTCUSD drew a bullish candle that engulfed the preceding candle, indicating that after the decline, buyers were trying to take over. BTCUSD formed a high of 114756, a low of 111986, and a close of 114416. Bitcoin sentiment is expected to move sideways in the 115,000-120,000 range after reaching a record high in July. Analysts predict a possible price squeeze, or significant price movement, either upward or downward.

Bitcoin ETF data flows remain a key driver. July saw a record $12.8 billion in inflows into crypto ETFs, reflecting strong institutional demand. This inflow, coupled with post-halving dynamics, is expected to fuel a potential Bitcoin breakout in August.

The impact of Trump's policy of changing reciprocal tariffs in various countries caused a decline in crypto prices. This indicates that macroeconomic sentiment and global policies still have a significant impact on digital assets like Bitcoin.

Major companies continue to show interest in Bitcoin, for example, Trump Media's $2 billion Bitcoin acquisition, challenging Micro Strategy's dominance. This demonstrates Bitcoin's growing integration into public companies' investment strategies.

On-chain funds show that new investor dominance in Bitcoin is around 30%, far below the saturation level of 64%-72%, indicating that there is still a lot of fresh capital entering the market without any signs of excessive euphoria, opening the opportunity for a larger price surge.

Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value ratio is currently at 2.2 and is slowly approaching its 365-day moving average. Historically, this ratio often approaches the long-term average, often leading to rebounds accompanied by price spikes.

Bitcoin's on-chain velocity is at its lowest level in a decade, indicating that BTC is shifting from a medium of exchange to a long-term store of value, primarily driven by institutional adoption.

Short-term predictions suggest Bitcoin will remain in the $115,000-$120,000 range. Some analysts are targeting $125,000-$128,000 if it successfully breaks through the $120,000 resistance. Predictions for the end of the year vary, with VanEck projecting $180,000, Charles Schwab predicting $1 million, and Standard Chartered targeting $200,000.

Gold prices rose, supported by speculation regarding the Fed's monetary policy.

Yesterday, gold prices rose slightly, drawing a small-bodied bullish candlestick, attempting to extend two previous gains. Gold prices formed a high of 3385, a low of 3345, and a close of 3373 on FXOpen's platform.

Gold prices appear to remain supported by safe-haven sentiment and speculation regarding the Fed's monetary policy. Several key factors to watch today are: US economic data, geopolitical conditions, US dollar movements, and central bank demand.

US economic data, including last week's weaker-than-expected US employment data, such as the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), has fueled market speculation about the Fed's possible inclination toward an interest rate cut. This is good news for gold, as lower interest rates tend to weaken the USD and increase the appeal of non-yielding gold.

Today's key event: the market will focus on the S&P Global Services PMI and the ISM Manufacturing PMI for July. Data showing a slowdown in the services sector could further support speculation about a Fed rate cut, potentially driving gold prices higher. Conversely, strong data could dampen such speculation and potentially depress gold prices.

Global uncertainties, such as trade tensions triggered by Trump and geopolitical conflicts such as Russia-US and China-Taiwan, continue to be key drivers of demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. As long as this uncertainty persists, gold is likely to remain a primary choice for investors seeking to protect their assets.

The US dollar strengthened in recent days due to a technical rebound after a sharp decline following the NFP release. However, this strengthening will be temporary if US data released today shows weakness. If risk sentiment resumes and speculation about a Fed interest rate cut intensifies, the US dollar will likely weaken, which in turn will support gold prices.

Gold purchases by global central banks, primarily to reduce dependence on the US dollar, are also a long-term fundamental factor supporting gold prices. Fund inflows into gold ETFs also indicate positive investor sentiment.

Gold's movement today could depend on the release of US PMI data. If the PMI weakens, gold prices are likely to find momentum to extend their gains. If the PMI data is stronger than expected, a correction in gold prices is likely as speculation about an interest rate cut will subside.

While short-term sentiment is supportive, some analysts warn of strong resistance at the psychological level of around $3,400, which may be difficult to break without significant trading volume.

NZDUSD shows bearish tendencies ahead of New Zealand jobs data

In yesterday's trading, the NZDUSD drew a doji candle with relatively long wicks at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 0.59222, a low of 0.58810, and a close of 0.58992.

The NZDUSD pair is currently showing bearish tendencies and is trading near the psychological level of 0.5900. Cautious market sentiment and a focus on monetary policy and economic data from the US and New Zealand are the main factors influencing price movements.

US employment data. The weaker-than-expected US NFP release has raised market speculation that the Fed may consider an earlier interest rate cut. This tends to weigh on the USD and provide a slight boost to NZDUSD. The US services PMI and ISM will be in the spotlight. Slightly stronger data support the USD. The DXY, which measures the performance of the US dollar, rose around 0.03% to a high of 99.074. The DXY is likely to move sideways after plunging on Friday.

Despite speculation of a rate cut, uncertainty surrounding the Fed's policy, especially following the resignation of one of its Governors, continues to keep the market cautious.

Recent Chinese economic data, including the Caixin Services PMI, showed an unexpected increase but failed to boost the New Zealand dollar. This suggests that market sentiment is still dominated by other factors.

The US-China trade relationship remains in the spotlight, as China is New Zealand's main trading partner. Trade tensions between the US and China could put pressure on the NZD. The market is closely monitoring ongoing negotiations.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) hinted at the possibility of further interest rate cuts. The uncertain economic outlook and easing inflationary pressures have prompted the central bank to maintain a dovish bias. This has generally put pressure on the NZD.

New Zealand's economy relies on commodity exports, particularly dairy products. Fluctuations in global prices, such as the Milk Price Index, will affect the value of the NZD.

Today, investors will be focusing on New Zealand's jobs data. Employment Change fell -0.1%, while the unemployment rate fell to 5.2%, lower than expected.

GBP/USD will focus on today's Bank of England (BoE) policy announcement.

Yesterday, the GBP/USD currency pair drew a fairly long-bodied bullish candle, reflecting a weakening USD. The GBP/USD price formed a high of 1.33681, a low of 1.32815, and a close of 1.33557 on FXOpen's platform.

The US dollar continued its downtrend and plunged to a multi-day low on Wednesday, as investors remained wary of President Trump's plans for Chairman Powell's replacement and developments on the trade front ahead of the upcoming deadline. The DXY, which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, fell 0.51%, crossing the 20-EMA from the upside, reaching a low of 98.128 from a high of 98.837.

The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its August 7 meeting, from 4.15% to 4.00%. This cut is expected due to high inflation of 3.6% in June, but the UK economy is showing signs of weakness and a weakening labor market, with unemployment rising to 4.7%. This is part of the longest and most gradual cycle since World War II.

US economic data shows a weak July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figure of just 73,000 jobs, a significant negative revision from the previous month. The July ISM services index (ISM) was only 50.1, indicating stagnation in the service sector. Market expectations are starting to include the potential for a Fed rate cut in September, with a probability of over 75%. Comments from Fed officials, such as Governor Mary Daly, who recently indicated that two rate cuts in 2025 are appropriate. These types of statements can influence expectations regarding the Fed's policy path.

If Fed officials' comments are more hawkish, the US dollar could strengthen. Conversely, dovish comments or weaker data could weaken the USD.

On August 7, the US will release data on initial and continuing jobless claims, as well as productivity and unit labor costs. These figures will provide subtle clues about the health of the US labor market and inflationary pressures.

The potential for volatility remains high in GBPUSD ahead of the BoE announcement. Market reaction is focused not only on the interest rate cut but also on the BoE's future outlook.

Technically, the support levels of 1.3300 and 1.3140 are expected to be key, while resistance levels around 1.3400 and 1.3585 will be targets for bulls if the BoE surprises with a hawkish tone.

USD/CAD falls slightly ahead of Canada's monthly unemployment figures

The Canadian dollar has been trending lower against the US dollar for five consecutive days. The US dollar continued its rise ahead of the release of the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims, scheduled for release in the North American session. The DXY, which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, is currently down slightly -0.1% at 98.082 at the time of writing.

Yesterday, USD/CAD drew a small bearish candle with a wick at the top of the candle, reflecting a lower close than the opening price. The price formed a high of 1.37735, a low of 1.37214, and a close of 1.37400.

Today's main focus is the release of Canadian employment data. Employment data is an important indicator of economic health. Strong job growth indicates a healthy economy, which could encourage the Bank of Canada (BoC) to adopt a tighter monetary stance or maintain interest rates. Conversely, rising unemployment signals an economic slowdown, which could fuel speculation of an interest rate cut.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.75% at its last meeting in late July 2025. This decision followed a series of rate cuts in early 2025 in response to trade uncertainty and the risk of an economic slowdown. The BoC noted that uncertainty surrounding US tariffs remains a key risk to growth and inflation. The BoC's next move will depend on economic data, including employment data due today.

On the other hand, the Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate to 4.33% in early August 2025. This reduction was driven by reports of progress in curbing inflation. However, several Fed officials are still debating how quickly and by how much interest rates should be cut. The Fed's dovish policy outlook compared to the BoC will tend to put pressure on the USD.

Canada-US trade relations remain a significant fundamental factor. Despite the ongoing CUSMA agreement, the threat of new US tariffs on Canadian goods continues to fuel uncertainty. This has negatively impacted the CAD, but news of tariff exemptions on some Canadian exports to the US provided some support.

Canada is often referred to as a commodity currency, as it is a major crude oil exporter. Fluctuations in oil prices are a concern for traders. Rising oil prices typically support the CAD, while declining oil prices can depress it. Currently, WTI oil prices have trended downward for six consecutive days, which is less supportive for the CAD.

Today, investors will focus on Canadian employment data. Employment change is expected to fall by 15.3k from 83.1k. The unemployment rate is estimated to rise to 7.0% from 6.9%, according to ForexFactory data. A bullish scenario would be if employment data shows strong results. A bearish scenario would be if employment data shows disappointing results.

EUR/JPY opened with a slight gap at the open.

EURJPY opened at 171.673, slightly below Friday's closing price of 171.971. Japanese banks will be closed today in observance of Mountain Day, which may affect trading volume, particularly in the Japanese Yen. On Friday, the EURJPY pair drew a small bullish candle, with a high of 172.339, a low of 171.363, and a close of 171.971 on FXOpen's platform. EURJPY's movement tended to be stable over the two trading days.

In general, the fundamental bias for the EURJPY pair remains bullish, supported by several key factors related to monetary policy and global market sentiment.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain a more cautious stance on monetary policy easing compared to the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This slower pace of easing could support the stability of the Euro.

The BoJ continues to maintain a very dovish monetary policy, meaning the Japanese central bank tends to keep interest rates low to support economic growth, this policy has the potential to weaken the JPY.

The contrasting monetary policies of the more hawkish ECB and the dovish BoJ have created a significant interest rate divergence. This interest rate divergence makes the Euro more attractive to investors, potentially driving the EURJPY up.

When global sentiment tends to be risk-on (investors are optimistic and willing to take risks), safe-haven currencies like the JPY typically weaken. Conversely, the Euro tends to strengthen in these conditions. Currently, global risk-on sentiment is supporting the EUR's strengthening against the JPY.

From the latest economic data, although there are no specific major economic releases scheduled for today, it is important to continue monitoring upcoming economic data from the Eurozone and Japan, such as inflation and GDP, which could influence market expectations regarding central bank policy and change the direction of the pair's movement.

Although the BoJ maintains a dovish stance, the risk of Japanese government intervention in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the JPY remains, potentially limiting JPY weakness.

If market sentiment suddenly shifts to risk-off (investors avoid risk), the JPY could strengthen as a safe-haven currency, which could cause the Euro to weaken. If the ECB indicates it is accelerating its policy easing path, this could weaken the euro and negatively impact the EURJPY.

AUD/USD fell slightly ahead of the RBA cash rate and US inflation.

The Australian dollar in Monday's trading showed a bearish candlestick with a small body and shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 0.65285, a low of 0.65012, and a close of 0.65101. Price movement remained near the middle band line on the daily timeframe.

Today could be a crucial day for the AUD/USD pair, as there will be important fundamental events that could trigger high volatility. This fundamental analysis will focus investors on two main factors: the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) decision and US inflation data (CPI).

One factor driving the AUD/USD movement is the RBA interest rate decision. The majority of the market expects the RBA to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark interest rate from 3.85% to 3.60%. Significant price movements are likely to arise not only from the decision itself but also from the accompanying monetary policy.

A very dovish outlook, with policymakers leaning toward further monetary easing and hinting at future interest rate cuts, could negatively impact the Australian dollar. Conversely, if the RBA cuts rates but provides a balanced or even hawkish outlook, with the likelihood of holding rates unchanged or raising them in the future, this could limit the AUD's decline and possibly trigger a recovery.

On the other hand, the USD is influenced by the release of important US inflation data. Investors will be closely watching the July CPI inflation report, scheduled for today.

Inflation data is a key factor influencing the Fed's interest rate decisions. If US inflation data is higher than expected, this will increase expectations that the Fed will maintain higher interest rates for a longer period, or perhaps consider delaying rate cuts, which in turn will strengthen the US dollar and weaken the Australian dollar. If inflation data is lower than expected, this will strengthen the argument that the Fed will cut interest rates in the future, and this sentiment will weaken the US dollar and could push the Australian dollar up.

The AUD/USD currency pair will face dual pressure today from the RBA's policy tone and US inflation data.

WTI oil prices remain under pressure, declining for seven consecutive days.

The oil price on the XTIUSD pair yesterday drew a bearish candle, after previously attempting a rebound, but failed to extend its gains after seven consecutive days of decline. Oil prices formed a high of 63.53, a low of 62.42, and a close of 62.43 on FXOpen's platform.

WTI oil price movements will be fundamentally influenced by global supply and demand dynamics, as well as market sentiment related to important economic data.

US crude oil inventory data released last night by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a change of 4.2 million barrels. This larger-than-expected decline in stocks indicates a bullish signal that oil demand in the United States is quite strong, or that supply is experiencing a bottleneck.

The oil market is currently awaiting the meeting between the US and Russia. This meeting indicates that energy and geopolitical issues are top of mind. The outcome of the meeting, especially if there is an agreement or statement affecting oil supply, could trigger significant volatility. There is also the potential for new sanctions on Iran, which, if implemented, could disrupt supplies and push prices up.

Global demand data shows mixed results. The latest OPEC+ report projects an increase in global demand in 2026, providing positive sentiment for the long-term outlook. However, concerns about the global economic slowdown and its impact on global oil demand continue to loom. UBS has even cut its Brent crude price projection for the end of 2025. Furthermore, US inflation data will also be closely monitored to gauge the global economy.

OPEC+ and its allies will likely hold back production increases unless there is a significant supply disruption, aiming to stabilize prices. Meanwhile, US oil production is currently at high levels, which could be a factor in price pressure.

A bullish scenario would be if the market responds positively to a significant decline in API oil stocks. Or if there are sentiments indicating oil supply disruptions, such as in the Middle East and the US-Russia meeting. Or if economic data from major oil-consuming countries shows better-than-expected economic strength.

A bearish scenario would be if the market focuses more on concerns and a global economic slowdown, which could potentially depress oil prices. Or if general market sentiment remains dominated by concerns about trade tariffs and tight monetary policy.

Bitcoin moves near key resistance near its all-time high of $123,000

Bitcoin's price remains hovering near its all-time high of $123,000. The BTC/USD price on Wednesday, August 13, drew a bullish candle with a long body and short wick at the bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 122966, a low of 118916, and a close of 122896 on FXOpen's platform. Some traders appear to be awaiting Bitcoin's breakout momentum, which could send the price rising to a new all-time high.

Fundamentally, Bitcoin currently enjoys positive market sentiment. Many analysts view 2025 as the post-halving year, which historically triggers significant price spikes. The total crypto market capitalization is currently reported to have reached $4 trillion.

Institutional adoption remains a key driver. Reports indicate significant interest from financial institutions in crypto ETFs such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. The BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) launched by leading university Harvard University, demonstrates this trend. Strong fund flows into the Ethereum ETF (ETHA) also strongly indicate institutional interest.

Developments in crypto regulations in the US are also providing positive support for Bitcoin. President Trump's executive order to ease access to digital assets in retirement plans could open the door to significant capital inflows into the crypto market.

Technically, Bitcoin has recently hovered around its all-time high, despite a brief correction. Some analysts see technical patterns indicating a potential further breakout, possibly reaching $126,000 or even $130,000. Some Bitcoin miners, such as Sequans, have also reportedly increased their Bitcoin holdings.

Today, the market will focus on the release of US economic data, namely the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Jobless Claims. These data will provide clues about inflationary pressures and the state of the US labor market.

The Fed appears to have factored in the possibility of an interest rate cut. Statements from Fed officials, such as Barkin's speech today, will be closely watched for further clues regarding future monetary policy.

DXY sentiment remains generally weak, recently dropping to a two-week low. This decline may have been driven by market speculation about potential interest rate cuts and increased risk-on sentiment, which has driven investors to choose riskier assets, including crypto.

Bitcoin price stabilizes around $117k, with upside potential still present

We witnessed a correction in the BTCUSD price after reaching a new all-time high above $124k. The price then fell to around $117k. This stable price movement within a narrow range occurred for four consecutive days, with movement near the middle band line.

Fundamentally, Bitcoin is currently in an interesting phase, with several key factors likely influencing its movement.

Market sentiment and institutional adoption remain the main drivers of Bitcoin price movements. Currently, the crypto market generally shows neutral to slightly bullish sentiment. The Fear and Greed Index is at 59, indicating the market is not experiencing excessive euphoria or panic. This is a healthy signal, as inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs remain consistent, indicating continued interest from institutional investors.

Bitcoin recently experienced a correction following a disappointing US PPI report. This demonstrates that, despite its role as an independent asset, Bitcoin is still influenced by US macroeconomic data. Movements in the Fed's interest rate and the US dollar exchange rate remain important factors influencing Bitcoin's price movements.

Meanwhile, miner activity in August 2025 will influence BTC price movements due to the balance between miner sales and institutional inflows. If miners continue to sell BTC to cover operational costs, this could create selling pressure. However, if institutional demand is stronger, the potential for Bitcoin price increases remains open.

Overall, the long-term fundamental sentiment for BTCUSD remains positive, with some analysts predicting BTC could reach $150,000, even after hitting a record high above $124,000 in August.

Technically, the BTCUSD price movement is showing signs of consolidation, hovering around $117k-$118k, with support at $111k-$112k. Stronger support is around $108k.

The Canadian dollar strengthened slightly ahead of the release of annual inflation (CPI) data.

Price movement on Monday was quite sluggish, with USD/CAD drawing a small bearish candle. The price formed a high of 1.38312, a low of 1.37829, and a close of 1.37987 on FXOpen's platform. Price movement was between the middle and upper band lines.

Canadian inflation (CPI) data for July reportedly fell to 1.9% from 2.0%. This decline in inflation could signal the Bank of Canada to continue monetary easing, potentially weakening the CAD. Today, according to the ForexFactory economic calendar, Canada will release annual CPI inflation data, which is expected to remain the same as the previous revision. Meanwhile, the monthly CPI is expected to rise higher than the previous revision.

The Fed is currently closely monitoring its policy direction. Moderate US inflation data in early August 2025 has raised market expectations for a Fed interest rate cut in September. However, the release of other inflation data, such as producer price data (PPI) that beats expectations, could dampen those expectations and provide support for the USD. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada is expected to continue lowering interest rates throughout 2025. A faster pace of rate cuts by the BoC than the Fed could put downward pressure on the CAD and widen existing interest rate differentials.

The US stock market was sluggish as investors exercised caution ahead of the release of financial reports from several major retailers and the Federal Reserve's annual symposium in Jackson Hole. US public debt surpassed $37 trillion as of August 2025, which could pose a long-term risk to the US dollar. Despite expectations of interest rate cuts, the US dollar showed a modest recovery. The DXY, which measures the US dollar's performance against six major currencies, rose around 0.32% on August 18th, from a low of 97.775 to a high of 98.186. However, the DXY's rise remained below the 20-day moving average (EMA), indicating that the DXY's value remains bearish.

The CAD is known as a commodity currency, and its movements are sensitive to crude oil prices. A prolonged decline in crude oil prices could limit the CAD's upward momentum. Investors are currently adopting a wait-and-see approach or being cautious, ahead of important economic data and central bank meetings.

From a fundamental analysis perspective, USD/CAD is likely under bullish pressure, but this movement may be limited as the market awaits further economic data from central bank officials, particularly the Fed. Investors are advised to monitor the economic data to be released and the monetary policies of both countries.

Gold prices plummet due to geopolitical changes

Gold prices fell on Tuesday, August 19th, drawing a small-bodied bearish candlestick below the middle band line. Gold prices formed a high of 3345, a low of 3314, and a close of 3315 on FXOpen's platform.

Gold prices fell as Trump, Zelenskiy, and European leaders discussed possible negotiations with Russia. Geopolitical developments suggest that a positive outcome from US President Trump's meeting with Putin, Zelenskiy, and European leaders could end the ongoing war. Safe-haven demand declined as speculation about security guarantees for Kyiv fueled a potential end to the war.

Fundamentally, gold price movements are also influenced by the strength of the US dollar and market risk sentiment.

Traders will focus on the FOMC minutes, which will be released on August 21st, refers to the ForexFactory economic calendar. These minutes will provide further clues regarding Fed officials' views on the economic outlook, inflation, and, most importantly, the future direction of interest rate policy. If the minutes indicate a hawkish Fed stance, this will strengthen the US dollar. Conversely, if the minutes are dovish, the US dollar will weaken, supporting gold.

Gold is a non-yielding asset; rising interest rates make it less attractive to large investors who prefer bonds with higher yields. This tends to strengthen the USD, depressing gold prices. Conversely, if the US dollar weakens due to interest rate cuts, gold prices have the potential to strengthen.

The US-China trade war could influence market sentiment. Progress or delays in tariff negotiations could reduce uncertainty, prompting investors to choose riskier assets like stocks and avoid gold as a safe-haven. Conversely, escalating tensions could boost gold demand.

Investors will also be focused on developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, noting that any escalation or de-escalation could directly impact gold.

Gold movements are expected to be highly volatile, especially ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes. A bullish scenario would be if the FOMC minutes show a more dovish-than-expected Fed stance, and if there is an escalation in geopolitical and trade tensions, investors would potentially seek safe-haven assets. A bearish scenario would be if the FOMC minutes confirm a hawkish stance that supports the USD, and if improved risk sentiment in the market, for example, optimism regarding conflict resolution, could reduce gold's appeal.

Given the importance of Fed data, investors are currently likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach until the data is released. Market movements will depend on how the market responds to and interprets the Fed's signals.

Silver Rebounds After Four Consecutive Days of Decline

Silver prices yesterday drew a bullish candle with a long body and a relatively long wick at the bottom of the candle. Silver formed a high of 37,937, a low of 36,954, and a close of 37,889. Silver prices rebounded after touching the lower band line.

Fundamental factors that could influence the current silver price include US monetary policy, global market sentiment, and industrial demand.

The Fed's monetary policy report indicated that they are in no rush to cut interest rates. A prolonged high-interest-rate scenario tends to strengthen the USD and is a negative factor for silver. The DXY, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, is currently at 98.227, down slightly by 0.06% but has successfully crossed the 20-day moving average (EMA) from the downside.

High interest rates make non-yielding silver less attractive, with investors preferring yield-bearing assets such as US Treasuries, which in turn strengthens the USD.

From a geopolitical perspective, geopolitical uncertainty and trade wars, such as the one between China and the US, can increase the potential demand for safe-haven assets like silver, potentially curbing price declines. Although silver is not considered a major safe-haven asset like gold, it still benefits from global uncertainty due to investor demand for non-flat assets.

Significant industrial demand, particularly in technology sectors such as solar panels, electric cars, and electronics, is present. Slowing global economic growth prospects could reduce demand in these industries, which in turn pressures silver prices. Silver prices often move in tandem with gold; rising gold prices can support silver.

From a fundamental perspective, there appears to be a tug-of-war between factors that pressure and support silver prices. Geopolitical concerns and potential safe-haven demand support silver, but the Fed's hawkish stance tends to suppress silver prices. The strengthening of the USD, although slightly weakened, still offers upside potential.

The probability of an interest cut rate, according to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, currently indicates an 81.0% chance of a Fed rate cut at its September meeting.

Bitcoin plummets due to uncertainty surrounding Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium

Bitcoin experienced a significant correction from a high of around $124k, dropping by approximately 7% to its current level of around $113k. This decline was driven by uncertainty surrounding Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Uncertainty about the direction of monetary policy, including the possibility of an interest rate cut, was a major factor in Bitcoin's recent decline.

Yesterday, Bitcoin drew a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of $115,636, a low of $111,126, and a close of $112,726 on FXOpen's trading platform. This was a fairly deep decline from the middle band to the lower band line.

In terms of institutional investor funds, there was an outflow of nearly $1 billion from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, but the total funds remaining in crypto funds remained at their highest levels, indicating strong institutional investor confidence. This support is reinforced by the presence of numerous spot Bitcoin ETFs since January 2024, as well as the accumulation of over $100 billion in assets, particularly from major players like BlackRock and Harvard University.

VanEck's prediction even predicts that BTC could reach $180,000 by the end of 2025, driven by growing institutional investment and favorable macroeconomic conditions. Bitwise analysts also project a BTC target range of $180k-$250k thanks to a combination of limited supply and high institutional demand.

Despite a correction leading up to July, Bitcoin quickly recovered and eventually reached an all-time high above $124k in August, demonstrating strong demand and solid buying liquidity.

Regarding crypto regulation, in March 2025, President Trump signed an executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve at the federal level, making BTC a strategic reserve asset, with the government holding an estimated 200,000 BTC. Texas even followed suit by establishing the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, signaling the growing adoption and legitimacy of BTC.

BTCUSD is expected to see a slight correction today, especially if Powell's speech at Jackson Hole negates expectations of an interest rate cut. Meanwhile, institutional support and strong on-chain trends are expected to provide the basis for a medium-term rebound.

WTI oil prices rise for a fourth straight day after a prolonged decline

WTI oil prices rose on Monday, drawing a bullish candlestick, extending the previous rally. The price formed a high of 64.87, a low of 63.35, and a close of 64.55 near the middle band on the daily timeframe refers to FXOpen's trading platform.

The rise in oil prices, following the previous week's prolonged decline, appears to be driven by market expectations of lower interest rates in the United States, which have boosted hopes for higher demand.

When analyzing crude oil prices, important factors depend on the dynamics of global supply and demand. In this regard, major oil-producing countries, OPEC+, the US, and Russia, play a role in maintaining oil supply, while China and the US often serve as benchmarks for global oil demand.

Furthermore, traders also pay attention to the performance of the USD. When the USD strengthens, oil prices tend to fall because oil becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies. Conversely, a weakening USD can push oil prices up.

Today's fundamental factor that traders may be paying attention to is the US oil inventory report. According to the latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), US oil inventories fell by 2.4 million barrels in the week ending August 15, 2025. This decrease exceeded analysts' expectations, which had projected a smaller decrease. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data is usually released on Wednesdays. If the EIA confirms a decline in inventories, this could be bullish for oil prices, indicating strong demand and tight supply in the US.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains a major topic driving oil price trends. The recent attack on Russian energy infrastructure by Ukraine could increase supply uncertainty and could push prices up.

Investors will also be paying attention to OPEC+'s policy to increase or cut production, which could significantly impact oil price fluctuations. However, concerns about a global recession and economic slowdown could hamper demand and depress oil prices. Conversely, strong economic data from major consumers like China and the US could support oil prices.

Bullish support today includes US inventory data showing a larger-than-expected decline, indicating that US demand remains strong. An escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war could create a risk premium on oil prices. Market expectations of potential Fed policy easing could pressure the US dollar, which fundamentally supports oil prices.

Conversely, bearish support is seen in US economic data showing strong resilience, triggering a strengthening USD, which could pressure oil prices. Alternatively, broader macroeconomic concerns about global growth could limit price gains.

AUD/USD price movement has reached 0.6500

AUD/USD recovered from Monday's decline and moved back towards the 0.6500 level. This rebound occurred as the US dollar weakened again and global risk appetite improved. Price pressures in Australia have begun to ease, albeit only slightly. Q2 CPI rose 0.7% quarter-on-quarter and 2.1% year-on-year, while the June CPI indicator fell to 1.9%. Investors will be monitoring the July CPI release today for new signals.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is projected to keep interest rates steady. However, there is potential for a rate cut in August or September if the latest economic projections indicate a significant slowdown. If the RBA keeps rates unchanged, this could provide a small boost for the AUD, but if there are signs of monetary easing, the AUD could weaken.

Meanwhile, fundamental news from the United States Federal Reserve (The Fed) suggests that market sentiment under Jerome Powell's leadership suggests a possible interest rate cut at its next meeting in September 2025. Although inflation remains above the 2% target, slowing economic growth and consumer spending are key considerations. Political uncertainty surrounding President Trump's potential dismissal of one of the Fed's governors could impact the central bank's independence and create market volatility. If the market views an interest rate cut as a certainty, the USD could weaken.

Relevant US economic data today includes the Richmond manufacturing index, new home sales, and API crude oil inventories. Stronger-than-expected data could support a stronger USD, while weaker data could increase speculation of an interest rate cut and weaken the dollar. Market sentiment will also be influenced by the US PCE data on Friday.

The AUD's movement will be influenced by the Westpac main index. This data indicates the health of the Australian economy and can influence market sentiment. However, the release of the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) and US GDP data, due tomorrow, will likely be the main drivers of AUD/USD movements. The Australian economy's recent performance shows a steady decline in unemployment to 4.2% in July, supported by strong labor market conditions and job additions. PMI data was also positive, with manufacturing and services moving above 50, while the trade surplus increased sharply.

The US dollar often functions as a safe-haven currency. In the event of geopolitical uncertainty and a global economic slowdown, investors may tend to shift to the US dollar, which in turn strengthens the USD and weakens the AUD.

The Australian dollar has a strong correlation with China, Australia's main trading partner for commodities such as iron ore. Rising commodity prices on the global market or positive Chinese economic data could support the AUD's strength. Conversely, if concerns about a Chinese economic slowdown arise, the AUD could weaken.

Morgan Stanley recommends selling the US dollar and suggests the AUD as an undervalued alternative. Furthermore, global USD weakness driven by fiscal pressures and US policy could provide an opportunity for AUD strengthening.

Gold prices held near $3,400 as Fed rate cut bets hinge on data.

Gold prices held steady on Wednesday, although the US dollar recovered from earlier losses triggered by threats to the Fed's independence. Gold traded with a bullish candle, forming a high of $3,398 and a low of $3,373, closing at $3,396, according to FXOpen's trading platform.

Gold prices (XAU/USD) in 2025 are generally in a significant uptrend, even nearly reaching a record high of $3,400 per troy ounce. Current market sentiment is bullish, pointing to price increases, although there is a potential for a short-term correction. Many analysts project gold prices to continue rising through the end of 2025 and even into 2026.

The Fed's monetary policy remains a key focus for gold. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium hinted at a looser policy. However, a Fed official, New York Fed President John Williams, said that interest rates could be lowered at some point but emphasized that only data would indicate whether a rate cut was appropriate, based on economic performance.

The Fed's next meeting is scheduled for September 16-17. Leading up to that date, there will be another jobs report, as well as two inflation reports—the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August—before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gathers for its sixth meeting of the year.

The implications of a Fed rate cut could drive up the price of non-yielding gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

Weaker US economic data and forecasts could strengthen the argument that the Fed has reason to loosen monetary policy to support economic growth. This could provide positive support for gold. Several economic data releases today will be in focus for traders, such as preliminary GDP, unemployment claims, and home sales, which could provide subtle clues about the US economy.

Prolonged geopolitical conflicts, such as those in the Middle East, and political situations in the US, such as the issue of the dismissal of the Fed chairman, could increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold, which is traditionally considered a hedge.

Gold purchases by global central banks continue. Their actions to diversify foreign exchange reserves and reduce dependence on the US dollar are strong pillars supporting gold prices.

On the other hand, global inflation remains a concern. Although US inflation has shown a decline, concerns about global inflation persist. Gold is often considered a hedge against inflation.

Today, market attention will focus on US economic data, particularly the PCE and revised GDP. The PCE index is an inflation indicator closely monitored by the Fed. If PCE data shows a decline, expectations of interest rate cuts strengthen. Revised GDP data provide a snapshot of the US economy; weaker data support the argument for monetary policy easing and support gold prices.

Gold Prices Optimistic Amid Dovish Fed Signals

Gold prices rose on Friday, drawing a bullish candle, extending their consecutive gains from the previous few days. On Friday, gold prices formed a high of 3453, a low of 3404, and a close of 3447 on FXOpen's platform. Gold's rise crossed the upper band line, which had previously served as a solid resistance level.

Gold's strong bullish trend has shown a significant upward trend throughout August 2025, with gold prices rising sharply, recording its best monthly performance since April. Analysts generally predict this bullish trend will continue, with several ambitious price targets set until the end of 2025.

The main sentiment driving the gold price increase is growing market expectations that the Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate. The likelihood of a rate cut at the FOMC meeting in September 2025 is estimated to be very high, supported by weakening inflation and labor market data.

The Fed's looser monetary policy tends to depreciate the US dollar. A weaker US dollar makes dollar-denominated gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies, increasing its appeal. Throughout August 2025, the US dollar recorded its worst monthly decline in recent months.

Geopolitical risks, such as tensions in the United States, have also increased investor interest in gold as a safe haven.

Technically, gold prices have successfully broken out of their previous channel, exhibiting strong bullish momentum, which indicates potential for continued upside. Some analysts are targeting prices around $3,433 and $3,486. Other medium-term analysts project targets around $3,500 and even $3,600 per troy ounce in the second half of 2025. Strong support levels have formed around $3,410 and $3,412. Although some analysts are bullish, they should be wary of a potential retracement before prices resume their momentum.

Today, banks in Canada and the US will be closed in observance of Labor Day, which has the potential to reduce market volumes.