Morning Briefing

29 Jul 25. 0820 IST or 0250 GMT or 2250 EST

Good Morning!

The US and EU Commission made a trade agreement with an unbalanced deal that slapped a headline 15% tariff on EU goods. The Dollar Index is rising within its 96-99 range and a confirmed break past 99 can take it towards 101. The Euro has fallen below 1.16 and can test 1.15-1.14 if the fall extends, EURINR is nearing the support at 100.50 which can be tested soon. EURJPY appears to have peaked at 173.90 and any fall below 171 can drag it further to 170-168. USDJPY and USDNCY are trading near the upper end of their ranges of 146-149 and 7.14-7.20 respectively. The Aussie is coming off within its 0.6650-0.645 range, while the Pound has slipped below 1.34 and failure to see a bounce back can drag it further to 1.32 or even lower. USDINR is currently trading at 86.7270 on the NDF. Overall, while above 86.60, a further rise to 86.85-87.00 is possible. US Case Schiller and US Consumer Confidence data releases are scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields continue to remain stable. They can avoid a fall and rise further if they manage to sustain above their immediate support. The US Fed meeting outcome tomorrow is important to watch. While the rates are likely to be kept unchanged, any hint on the future rate path and the tariff impact will be much more important to be seen. The German yields have dipped. But the bias remains positive. The yields can rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI (06.33 GS 2035) is moving up within its broad range. The bias is positive to see a bullish breakout of this range eventually.

Most indices look weak ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow, where the central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged. Dow has dipped but looks bullish above 44500, while the Dax can extend its fall to 23500-23000 if it fails to bounce back above 24000 immediately. Nifty fell sharply on heavy selling seen yesterday, but has support near 24600. A break below 24600 can take it further down towards the lower support at 24400. Nikkei and Shanghai can test 40500-40000 and 3550, respectively, before a bounce is seen later towards 42000 and 3600+.

Metals and Natural Gas trade lower while Brent and WTI have moved up. Gold and Silver have crucial supports at $3300 and $38 above which the prices may have scope to move up; else can be vulnerable to decline towards $3200 and $37, respectively. Copper looks strongly bearish, and a decisive break below 5.6, if seen, can drag it down to 5.4-5.3. Brent and WTI have risen well on the easing of trade deal between the US-EU and ahead of the FOMC meeting yesterday where the interest rates are expected to remain unchanged favoring the Dollar. Brent and WTI have scope to rise towards $72-75 and $68-70, respectively, but the broader outlook remains bearish in the medium term.

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30 Jul 25. 0815 IST or 0245 GMT or 2245 EST

Good Morning!

The US FOMC is scheduled today and even though the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, focus will be on any hints of rate cuts in the coming months. Dollar Index failed in its attempt to see a sustained rise past 99 and started declining from 99.14 itself. Currently, it is back within the 99-96 range but we retain our view of seeing a rise towards 101. The Euro and EURINR have upside capped at 1.1650-1.1700 and 102 respectively and while below these levels, the targets of 1.14 and 99 are kept alive. EURJPY, USDJPY and USDCNY are likely to consolidate within 171-174, 149-146 and 7.20-7.14 region in the near term before a break happens on either side. The Aussie and Pound have bounced a bit from their respective supports coming around 0.65 and 1.33. Overall, the range of 0.645-0.665 and 1.33-1.35 can persist in the near term. USDINR is currently trading at 87.0610 but faces an immediate resistance at 87.10. Need to see whether the resistance holds and pushes the pair to 86.50 or extends the rise further. US ADP Employment and US GDP data releases are also scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have declined sharply. A further fall from here will negate our view of seeing a rise and in turn will drag them lower going forward. The US Fed meeting outcome tonight will need a watch. The central bank’s comment on the future rate path and the impact of tariffs will be much more important to hear today. The German yields continue to move up. The bullish view is intact, and there is room to rise more. The 10Yr GoI has come down. The outlook remains mixed and range bound.

The Dow Jones trades in the negative as investors seem cautious before the FOMC meeting today, where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged. Dow could continue to trade within 44500-45000 region for the near term. Dax and Nifty have risen well, recovering from their losses and preventing further declines to 23500/23000 and 24400 mentioned yesterday. Now, both indices can move up towards 24800 and 25000-25250, respectively. Nikkei is holding above crucial support at 40000, above which an eventual rise towards 41000-42000 remains intact. Shanghai has risen well and can soon target 3650-3700, while above 3550-3600.

Brent and WTI have surged on news of the EU’s $750 billion U.S. energy purchase and $600 billion investment, along with President Trump’s accelerated timeline for ending the Russia-Ukraine war, raising supply concerns. Gold continues to rise towards $3400–$3450, while Silver holds above support at $38 with potential to move towards $39–$40. Copper shows a temporary rebound but remains bearish towards $5.4–$5.3, and Natural Gas stays bearish, targeting $3.10–$2.70 unless it breaks above $3.25/30.

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31 Jul 25. 0820 IST or 0250 GMT or 2250 EST

Good Morning!

The FOMC kept the interest rates unchanged at 4.50%. The Dollar Index has finally risen past 99 and if sustained, can extend the rise to 101 in the coming sessions. The Euro and EURINR are looking bearish towards 1.14-1.13 and 99 respectively. EURJPY has slipped below 171 and failure to see a bounce back can drag it further to 170-168 as well. USDJPY and USDCNY are holding the respective ranges of 146-149 and 7.14-7.20. A confirmed break past 149/50 and 7.20 can bring the higher levels of 155 and 7.25 into picture. The Aussie is trading near the lower end of its 0.665-0.645 range. Need to see whether the range sustains or the fall gets extended to 0.640-0.635. The Pound needs to hold above 1.32 and rise further, else it can get dragged towards 1.30-1.28 in the medium term. USDINR is trading higher on the NDF. An immediate resistance is coming at 87.75, need to see whether it holds or not.. Watch out for the BOJ meeting, US Personal Income and US PCE data releases scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have risen back well. That keeps alive our view of seeing a rise. Only a break below the immediate support will bring them under pressure for more fall. The US Federal Reserve kept the rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. The central bank said that it would wait and watch the upcoming inflation data to gauge the impact of tariffs before taking their next step. The German yields remain stable. View remains bullish. The yields can rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI remains higher within its sideways range. We will have to wait for the range breakout. Our preference is to see a bullish breakout.

The Dow Jones trades fell after the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged and signaled no decision made for a Sep-25 rate cut. The index can continue to decline towards 44000-43800 before attempting to move up in the medium term. Dax may continue to trade within the 24000-24800 range. Nifty closed above 24800 yesterday but can have scope for a decline to 24600-24400 while below 25000. Nikkei and Shanghai trade higher and could continue to rise while above 40000 and 3550 respectively, targeting 41000-42000 and 3700 in the medium term. BOJ is expected to keep rates unchanged today.

Brent and WTI remain positive and may rise towards $75 and $72 respectively, while Gold stays bullish above $3300 with potential to target $3400–$3450. Silver is under pressure near $37, with further downside possible if it breaks lower. Copper has plunged nearly 20% on tariff news and remains bearish towards $4.20–$4.00. Natural gas is expected to decline further towards $2.70.

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01 Aug 25. 0828 IST or 0258 GMT or 2258 EST

Good Morning!

Donald Trump has announced new tariffs on 69 countries, set to go into effect on 07-Aug. As a result, the Dollar Index has moved up further and can head towards 101 soon. The Euro and EURINR are looking bearish towards 1.13 and 99 respectively. EURJPY bounced from 169.74 itself and if sustained, can test 173-174 as well. USDJPY and USDCNY have risen past 150 and 7.20 respectively and both the pairs have the scope to extend the ongoing rise towards 152-155 and 7.2250-7.2500 respectively. The Aussie has slipped below 0.6450 and can fall further to 0.640-0.635. The Pound is coming off as expected and the lower levels of 1.30 or even 1.28 can be tested in the medium term. USDINR has cooled down a bit as anticipated. While below 87.75, a further dip to 87 is possible. IN Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing, US NFP, US Unemployment and the US Avg hrly Earnings are some of the important data releases scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields sustain higher. The bias will remain positive to see more rise while they sustain above their immediate support. The US NFP and the unemployment data release today will need a close watch. The German yields have dipped slightly. But the view remains bullish and the yields can rise back again. The 10Yr GoI has come down from near the upper end of the range. For now, the sideways range continues to remain intact.

The Dow Jones declined sharply dragging down other major equity indices as well. While the Dow can test 44000-43800, Dax can also fall to 24000 before attempting to rebound. Nifty, Nikkei and Shanghai have dipped as well and could initially test supports near 24600-24400, 40500-40000 and 3550 respectively before a bounce is seen eventually in the medium term.

Brent and WTI have dipped unexpectedly but are still expected to rise towards $75 and $72 respectively. Gold remains bullish above $3300, targeting $3400–$3450, while Silver’s break below $37 signals a bearish move towards $36–$35. Copper continues its downward trend towards $4.20–$4.00. Natural gas, despite rising above $3, maintains a bearish outlook with a target of $2.70.

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04 Aug 25. 0840 IST or 0310 GMT or 2310 EST

Good Morning!

Weaker NFP, new tariffs by Trump on various countries and firing of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer led the Dollar Index to fall sharply to 98.60. Currently it is holding well above 98 and if sustained, can head back towards 100-101 as well. The Euro and EURINR can trade within 1.18-1.14 and 102-100/99 regions respectively for some time before a break is seen. EURJPY, if held above 171, can attempt to test 173-174. USDJPY and USDCNY both came down sharply as well along with DXY. Still while the support at 147 holds in USDJPY, it can target 149/50. While USDCNY is back within its 7.20-7.15 range. The Aussie and Pound have bounced well but any further rise from current levels can be limited to 0.65/66 and 1.34 max. Eventually both the pairs are likely to turn lower in the medium term. USDINR below 87.75 can test 87 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply on Friday after the jobs data. A weak job number for July and a sharp lower revision for the previous two months had triggered this fall in the yields. A further fall from here can drag them lower in the coming days. The rise that we have been expecting stands negated now. The German Yields remain stable. The bullish view is intact, and the yields can rise going forward. The 10Yr GoI remains stable. It can remain stuck in a narrow range within the broad one.

Equity indices fell sharply after the NFP data release on Friday and the fresh trade tariff updated by Trump that indicates a weaker labor data over the last few months and raised sentiments over a possible rate cut by FED next month. The Dow Jones and Dax have crucial supports near 43000 and 23000 which need to hold for a decent pull back else that can trigger further decline for the medium term. Asia-Pac also trades lower. Nifty can test crucial support near 24400 while Nikkei and Shanghai also have similar supports near 40000 and 3550 which need to hold to prevent further decline. Watch price action near crucial supports on all the indices.

Crude prices fell sharply on Friday amid concerns over global energy demand triggered by US tariff policies and weak economic data, with Brent and WTI likely to test supports at $68 and $66 respectively before a possible rebound. Gold surged towards $3416.90 and may target $3450, with a breakout above this level signaling further gains to $3600–$3700. Silver remains bearish towards $36.00–$35.50, Copper continues to face downside risks towards $4.20–$4.00, and Natural gas is expected to decline towards $2.70 despite trading above $3.00.

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05 Aug 25. 0820 IST or 0250 GMT or 2250 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index has a scope to rise back towards 100-101 while it trades above 98/97. The Euro and EURINR have immediate resistance at 1.16 and 102 respectively. While it holds, both can trade within 1.18-1.14 and 102-100/99 regions respectively. EURJPY if slips below 170, can get dragged towards the deeper support at 168. USDJPY above 146 can target 149-150 in the near term. USDCNY is holding its 7.14-7.20 range for now. The Aussie and Pound have upside capped at 0.65/66 and 1.34 max. Eventually both the pairs are likely to turn lower in the medium term. USDINR had remained volatile since yesterday. On the NDF it is currently trading higher. Watch price action closely around current levels to see whether the resistance at 87.75-88.00 holds and pushes the pair lower or the rise extends further. IN Services PMI and the US Trade balance data releases are scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields declined further and are at a support. Failure to rise back immediately can see an extended fall going forward. The German yields have declined. But support is there to limit the downside and keep the broader bullish view intact. The 10Yr GoI has come down sharply and is now near the lower end of the range. If the range continues to hold well, then the yield can rise back within it.

Slight recovery is seen across most equity indices as respective near term supports hold well. Dow and Dax have risen slightly. While above 43000 and 23500-23000 respectively, the indices could continue to rise slowly towards 44500 and 24000-24500. Nifty could open on stable note and could decline further today on concerns of a higher tariff threat by Trump overnight. A fall back towards 24400 cannot be ruled out. Nikkei and Shanghai are trading higher and while above supports at 40000 and 3550, a slow rise can be seen in the coming sessions towards 41000-42000 and 3600-3650 respectively.

Brent and WTI are under pressure but may rebound if their immediate supports at $68 and $66 hold, respectively. Gold is bearish below $3450 with potential to drop to $3350, while a break above $3450 could target $3600–$3700. Silver has likely bottomed at $36.25 and may rise towards $38–$40. Copper remains bullish above $4.4, aiming for $4.6–$4.8 unless it breaks lower to $4.2. Natural Gas has fallen below $3.00 and may extend its decline towards $2.70.

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06 Aug 25. 0813 IST or 0243 GMT or 2243 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index has remained stable since the last few sessions. The view remains intact to see a rise towards 101, while above 98/97. The Euro and EURINR can trade within 1.18-1.14 and 102-100/99 regions respectively. EURJPY has limited upside to 172. The target of 168 is kept open for now. USDJPY above 146 can target 149-150 in the near term. USDCNY is holding its 7.14-7.20 range for now. The Aussie is consolidating within 0.64-0.65 region, while the Pound is heading towards the resistance at 1.34. USDINR tested 87.8825. Still, while below 88, a dip to 87.50 looks possible. Only a confirmed break past 88 if seen can bring higher levels into picture.

The US Treasury yields remain lower but stable. Any bounce from here can be capped. The yields are likely to fall more in the coming days. The German yields are also lower and stable. They have support to limit the downside. We can expect them to reverse higher and keep the bullish view intact. The 10Yr GoI retains its sideways range and can rise within that. The RBI meeting outcome tomorrow will be an important event to watch.


The Dow Jones dipped after a flat ISM services data yesterday that triggered concerns of a stagflation. While above support at 43000, Dow has scope for a slow rise towards 44500-45000. The Dax moved up yesterday and while above the support zone of 23000-23500, the index can slowly rise towards 24000-24500. Nifty declined as expected but while above supports at 24400-24600, Nifty can slowly rise towards 25000 in the medium term. Nikkei and Shanghai are trading higher and while above supports at 40000 and 3550, we may expect a rise towards 41000-42000 and 3650-3700 respectively.

Brent and WTI are testing their immediate supports, and a sustained break below could turn them bearish towards $66–$64 and $64–$62 respectively. Gold remains under resistance with a possible pullback to $3350 unless it breaks above $3450, which would turn it bullish towards $3600–$3700. Silver continues to rise and may reach $38–$40, while Copper has dropped below $4.4 and could fall to $4.3–$4.2. Natural gas stays above $3.0 but retains a bearish outlook towards $2.8–$2.7.

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07 Aug 25. 0803 IST or 0233 GMT or 2233 EST

Good Morning!

Donald Trump has announced an additional 25% tariff on India, bringing the total tariff rate to 50%. The Dollar Index is trading lower within the 100-98 range. Any break below 98 can drag it to 97-96. The Euro has risen past 1.16 and if sustained, can head towards 1.17/18 as well. EURINR and EURJPY face immediate resistance just above current levels. Need to see whether it holds or the rise gets extended towards 103-104 and 173-174 respectively. USDJPY needs to break past 148 to target 149-150, else a dip to 146/45 can happen initially. USDCNY is holding its 7.20-7.14 range for now. The Aussie has risen past 0;65 and if sustained, can head towards 0.66, while the Pound can rise towards the resistance at 1.34. USDINR might face upward pressure due to the tariffs imposed on India. A rise past 88 can take it to 88.30 as well. The targets of 87.50-87.25 are kept open for now.

The US Treasury yields are moving up. The upside is limited as the resistance ahead can cap the upside. The yields are likely to reverse lower and fall again. The German yields have risen back. That keeps intact our bullish view. The yields can rise more. The 10Yr GoI surged after the RBI kept the repo rates unchanged at 5.5%. The long-awaited bullish breakout of the range has happened. This now opens the door for further rise.

The Dow Jones and Dax have risen and look bullish towards 44500-45000 and 24000-24500 respectively. Nifty continues to trade lower on trade tariff concerns. The index may fall further to 24400 after additional 50% tariff announcement by Trump yesterday. Nikkei and Shanghai are trading higher as expected and could soon test 42000 and 3700 respectively.

Crude prices have broken below key support levels, indicating further downside towards $64 (Brent) and $62 (WTI) respectively. Gold is moving flat near resistance and needs a breakout to turn bullish, while Silver continues its upward move toward $39–$40. Copper is holding above $4.4, likely to trade between $4.3-$4.5 until a breakout. Natural gas is rising on hotter US weather, with potential to reach $3.15–$3.20 if it stays above $3.

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08 Aug 25. 0805 IST or 0235 GMT or 2235 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index is trading near the 98 level, any break below which if seen can drag it to 97-96 as well. The Euro has a scope to rise towards 1.18 while above 1.16. EURINR needs to rise past 102.50 to bring 103-104 into picture. EURJPY & USDJPY needs to break past 172.20 and 148 to head towards 174/75 and 150 respectively in the near term. USDCNY is trading higher within its 7.14-7.20 range. The Aussie has risen past 0;65 and if sustained, can head towards 0.66, while the Pound can soon test the resistance at 1.3450. USDINR is trading lower at the NDF. While below 88, a fall to 87.25 or lower is possible.

The US Treasury yields remain lower. The bias is negative to see more fall. Resistance is there to cap the upside in case a rise happens. The German yields have dipped. But support is there to limit the downside and keep the bullish view intact. The yields are likely to rise back again. The 10Yr GoI has come back into its range again. Failure to rise back can keep it inside the range for some more time again. The RBI kept the repo rates unchanged at 5.5% in its monetary policy meeting yesterday.

Stock markets are mixed today. The Dow Jones has dipped while the Dax has risen in news of Trump and Putin to meet in the coming days. Dow and Dax can soon target 44500-45000 and 24000-24500 respectively in the near term. Nifty is likely to hold above 24400 and move up towards 24800-25000 in the coming days. Nikkei and Shanghai may continue to rise towards near term resistances near 42000 and 3700 respectively. Nikkei could have scope to extend beyond 42000 on a confirmed upside break.

Brent and WTI are declining and may fall further towards $64–$62 and $62–$60 respectively. Gold has turned bullish after breaking resistance and could target $3550–$3600. Silver may rise towards $39–$40, while Copper is likely to remain range-bound between $4.3–$4.5. Natural Gas could test $3.2 before dropping below $3.


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11 Aug 25. 0806 IST or 0236 GMT or 2236 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index is trading lower within the 100-98 range. Deeper support coming at 97-96 levels. The Euro above 1.16 has a scope to rise towards 1.18. EURINR needs to rise past 102.50 to bring 103-104 into picture. EURJPY & USDJPY needs to break past 172.50 and 148 to head towards 173/74 and 150 respectively in the near term. USDCNY is trading higher within its 7.14-7.20 range. The Aussie can trade within 0.64-0.66 range. The Pound has risen 1.3450 and a confirmed break past 1.35 can take it higher to 1.36/37 as well. USDINR is holding the range of 88.00-87.50 for now, the target of 87.25 is kept open for now.

The Dollar Index is trading lower within the 100-98 range. Deeper support coming at 97-96 levels. The Euro above 1.16 has a scope to rise towards 1.18. EURINR needs to rise past 102.50 to bring 103-104 into picture. EURJPY & USDJPY needs to break past 172.50 and 148 to head towards 173/74 and 150 respectively in the near term. USDCNY is trading higher within its 7.14-7.20 range. The Aussie can trade within 0.64-0.66 range. The Pound has risen 1.3450 and a confirmed break past 1.35 can take it higher to 1.36/37 as well. USDINR is holding the range of 88.00-87.50 for now, the target of 87.25 is kept open for now.

The Dow has moved up on Friday and could rise towards 44500-45000 eventually, while downside can be limited to 43000 while the Dax has dipped with immediate resistance holding near 24260. A narrow trade between 24260 and 23500 can be possible in the near term. Trade tariff concerns may continue to weigh on the Indian markets, which could possibly push down Nifty towards 24000-23800 while below 24400. A bounce back above 24400 will be needed to prevent the said fall and instill some hopes of a rebound. Nikkei and Shanghai may continue to rise, targeting 43000 and 3700 in the near term.

Brent and WTI are both declining as expected, with further decline towards $64–$62 and $62–$60 respectively. Gold’s recent breakout above $3,500 appears false, and it could fall towards $3,350–$3,300 unless it regains bullish momentum. Silver may drop further if it breaks below $38, while Copper remains range-bound between $4.30–$4.50. Natural Gas has reversed earlier than anticipated and could decline towards $2.80.

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12 Aug 25. 0752 IST or 0222 GMT or 2222 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index and Euro are holding well in their respective ranges of 100-98 and 1.17-1.16. EURINR can fall towards 101.50-101.00 in the near term. EURJPY & USDJPY have the scope to head towards 173/74 and 150 respectively in the coming sessions. USDCNY is stuck within 7.1750-7.1900. The Aussie is coming off but overall, it can trade within 0.66-0.67 region for some time. The Pound has also turned lower and while below 1.35, it can be vulnerable to fall back towards 1.32 in the near term. USDINR has risen a bit and while above 87.50, a further rise within the 87.50-88.00 range is possible. The RBA meeting and the US CPI data release is scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields remain stable. The upside is limited from here. We expect the yields to reverse lower after testing their upcoming resistance. The US CPI data release will need a close watch. A high inflation number will be positive for the yields. The German yields remain higher and keeps the bullish view intact. They can rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI has risen well. The outlook is bullish, and the yields can rise further.

The Dow and Dax have dipped slightly yesterday ahead of the US CPI data release today where markets expect the inflation to accelerate amid the ongoing tariff concerns, Both indices can trade within a broad range of 43000-44500 and 23500-25000 respectively. Nifty recovered well yesterday but watch piece action near resistances near 24650 and 24800-24850 region for any near-term rejection. Nikkei and Shanghai look bullish towards 43000 and 3700 respectively.

Brent and WTI have seen slight rebounds but remain biased for declines towards $64–$62 and $62–$60 respectively. Gold and Silver are likely to fall further towards $3,350 and $37.00. Copper is expected to trade in the $4.50–$4.30 range, and Natural gas may drop to $2.85–$2.80 despite a recent rise to $3.00.

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13 Aug 25. 0810 IST or 0240 GMT or 2240 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index fell to the lower end of its 100-98 range after the US CPI release increased rate hike expectations by FED in Sep-25. The downside is expected to be limited to 97/96. EURUSD has the upside capped at 1.18. EURINR needs a decisive break past 102.50 to head towards 103-104. For now, the downside targets of 101.50-101.00 are kept alive. EURJPY & USDJPY have the scope to head towards 174/175 and 150/151 respectively in the coming sessions. USDCNY is stuck within 7.1750-7.1900. The Aussie is coming off but overall, it can trade within 0.64-0.66 region for some time. The Pound gave a break above 1.35 and if sustained can test 1.36/37 before halting. USDINR can head towards 88 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have risen but could have decent resistance in the near term, from where a short dip is possible. The US CPI data release came in higher as widely expected, which could be positive for the yields in the next few sessions. The German yields have risen sharply too, and look bullish for the coming sessions. The 10Yr GoI has also risen well yesterday, sharply breaking above 6.40%. However, it could face resistance near 6.55/58% which could limit the near-term rise. A decisive break above 6.58%, if seen can be further bullish in the medium term.

The Dow is up after a higher CPI release yesterday keeping the Sep-25 rate cut possibility intact by the FED, while the Dax closed lower yesterday. The Dow has scope for a rise towards 45000 while Dax could have room to decline to 24000-23500 before eventually rising higher towards 24450/480. Nifty could attempt to rise today towards 24850 while above 24400. Nikkei appears bullish for the medium term, targeting 44000, while Shanghai may face rejection near 3700.

Brent and WTI are falling as expected, with further declines towards $64–$62 and $62–$60 respectively. Gold is holding above $3,400, with a break lower targeting $3,350. Silver has rebounded from $37.50 but needs to clear $38.50 for further gains. Copper is testing a breakout above $4.50, which could lead to $4.60–$4.80. Natural gas has dropped to $2.7740, with scope for further fall towards $2.75–$2.70.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing

14 Aug 25. 0805 IST or 0235 GMT or 2235 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index has slipped below 98 and can extend the fall to 97 or 96 max before attempting to rise back again. EURUSD can head towards 1.1750-1.1800 as mentioned earlier. EURINR needs a decisive break past 102.50 to head towards 103-104. EURJPY & USDJPY have turned lower from 173.02 and 148.17 itself. A further fall to 171-170 and 146-145 can happen respectively. USDCNY can also fall further within its broad range of 7.20-7.14. The Aussie and Pound are headed towards 0.66/6650 and 1.36/3650 respectively. USDINR yesterday slipped to the low of 87.38 but later recovered as well. While the deeper support at 87.25 holds, the target of 87.80-88.00 is kept open for now. IN WPI, IN Trade Balance and US PPI are some of the important releases scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have dipped and could test 4.20% (10yr) and 4.75/70% (30yr) before rebounding to higher levels. The German yields have also dipped yesterday but the overall view is bullish while above the near term support levels. The 10Yr GoI tested 6.3911% but managed to bounce back well indicating underlying bullish momentum. An initial test of 6.55/58% is possible. Thereafter a decisive break above 6.58%, if seen can be further bullish in the medium term.

The Dow and Dax are trading higher. A decisive break above 45000 and 24000, both could head higher towards 46000-47000 and 25000 soon. Nifty could attempt to rise towards 24850 in the near term while above 24400. Nikkei appears bullish for the medium term, targeting 44000, while Shanghai has tested crucial resistance at 3700 and may face rejection from here.

Brent and WTI prices fell further on bearish inventory data and forecasts, with more downside expected in the near term. Gold is holding above $3,400 and could rise further unless it breaks lower. Silver is breaking resistance and may climb higher towards $40, while Copper is attempting an upside breakout targetting $4.60-4.80. Natural gas remains biased for a decline towards $2.75-2.70 despite a slight rise.

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18 Aug 25. 0757 IST or 0227 GMT or 2227 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index can head towards 100.50 in the medium term, while it stays above 97/96. EURUSD and EURINR can trade within 1.18-1.14 and 102.50-101.50 region respectively while the immediate resistance at 1.1750 and 102.50 holds. EURJPY & USDJPY can rise towards 174/75 and 150/51 respectively on a confirmed break past 173 and 148. USDCNY is likely to trade within 7.16-7.20 region for a while. The Aussie continues to hold the 0.645-0.655 range for now. Even if the Pound rises further, it can limit the upside to 1.3650 max. USDINR has a scope to fall towards 87.00-86.50 in the coming weeks before eventually bouncing back again.

The US Treasury yields have risen well last week. They have room to rise further this week and test their resistance. The German yields have surged on Friday and are now at their key resistance. Failure to breach this resistance decisively can drag them down. The price action in the next couple of days will need a close watch. The 10Yr GoI has been very volatile. They can remain higher in a range for some time.

The Dow rallied well on Friday to test resistance near 45203, but closed lower at 44946. If resistance holds, we may expect a decline to 44500-44000 in the coming days; else the index will have to sustain a rise above 45000-45200 for bullishness to continue. Dax could have scope for a decline to 24000-23500 while below resistance at 25000-24800. A broad range of 25000-23500 continues to hold. Nifty may test 24800-24850 within a range of 24850-24400. Further bullishness will set in on a break above 24850. Nikkei and Shanghai look bullish towards 44000 and 3750 in the near term.

Crude prices fell with Brent testing support at $65 and WTI near $62, both holding chances of a short-term bounce unless supports break, which could open deeper downside. Gold slipped below $3,400 and can decline towards $3,350 support, while Silver remains rangebound between $38.5–$37 awaiting a breakout. Copper continues to trade within $4.50–$4.30, and Natural Gas rebounded sharply but needs to hold above $2.8 to avoid a fall back towards $2.75–$2.70.

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19 Aug 25. 0812 IST or 0242 GMT or 2242 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index has held the support of 97.75 quite well and while above it, the target of 100.00-100.50 can be achieved. EURUSD and EURINR can fall within their 1.18-1.14 and 102.50-101.50 ranges respectively. EURJPY & USDJPY on a confirmed break past 173 and 148 can rise towards 174/75 and 150/51. USDCNY is likely to trade within 7.16-7.20 region for a while. The Aussie is nearing the lower end of its 0.665-0.645 range. The Pound below 1.3650 can fall towards 1.34 in the near term. USDINR is coming off as expected. The ongoing fall can test the support near 87.25-87.15 soon. US Housing starts data release is scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have moved up further. That keeps intact our near-term bullish view. The yields have room to rise more. The German yields are turning down. The resistance seems to be holding well. A further fall from here can drag them lower going forward. The 10Yr GoI continues to remain volatile inside a range.

The Dow has dipped slightly and could test 44500-44000 while below resistance near 45200. Dax could continue to trade within a broader range of 25000-23500. Nifty rose yesterday on GST reforms mentioned by the PM but the index may or maynot keep up the bullish momentum intact. Failure to sustain the rise and break above 25000 would drag it down again towards 24850-24600 region in the coming days. Watch price action closely. Nikkei and Shanghai have been rising well in the past few sessions and look bullish towards 44000 and 3750-3800 in the near term.

Brent and WTI have bounced back with scope to rise towards $66–$68 and $64–$66 respectively, supported by geopolitical risks and strong near-term support levels. Gold is holding above $3,350 and may rebound towards $3,400–$3,450, while Silver has support at $37.5 and can break higher towards $39–$40 in the near term. Copper remains rangebound within $4.50–$4.30. Natural Gas stays firm above $2.8 with scope to rise towards $3.0–$3.1.

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20 Aug 25. 0805 IST or 0235 GMT or 2235 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index is firm and may rise towards 100.00–100.50 with downside limited to 97–96, while EURUSD continues to weaken towards 1.16 within its 1.18–1.16 range. EURINR is falling sharply and could test 101 before holding in a 101–102.50 band, and EURJPY is at crucial support near 171.50, which must hold to avoid a fall to 170, with a break above 173 needed to resume its long term bullish trend. Dollar-Yen is supported at 147 and could rebound towards 150–151, though a break lower risks 146–145. USDCNY faces resistance at 7.1950 and may pull back towards 7.17–7.16, while Aussie has broken below support at 0.6450 and looks bearish towards 0.64–0.6350. Pound is weak and could slip to 1.34, and USDINR remains under pressure after plunging to 86.9175 yesterday, with further downside towards 86.75–86.50 still likely.

The US Treasury yields have dipped slightly. But supports are there to limit the downside. The yields have room to rise further from here before reversing lower. The German yields remain lower below their resistance. Failure to rise back and breach the resistance can drag them lower in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI has risen well breaking the near-term range on the upside. While there is room to rise further, crucial resistance is coming up which can halt the rise. The yield can reverse lower after testing that resistance.

The US Treasury yields have dipped slightly. But supports are there to limit the downside. The yields have room to rise further from here before reversing lower. The German yields remain lower below their resistance. Failure to rise back and breach the resistance can drag them lower in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI has risen well breaking the near-term range on the upside. While there is room to rise further, crucial resistance is coming up which can halt the rise. The yield can reverse lower after testing that resistance.

The Dow Jones is struggling to get a strong follow-through rise. It can see a near-term fall before rising back again. Dax is inching up. The bias is positive to break the immediate resistance and rise more. Nifty has supported to limit the downside in the near term. But it has to breach its immediate resistance in order to move further higher. Nikkei and Shanghai can see a corrective fall in the near-term before resuming the broader uptrend.

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21 Aug 25. 0750 IST or 0220 GMT or 2220 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index remains bullish towards 100.00–100.50 with limited downside to 97, while EURUSD is range-bound between 1.18–1.16 with bias for a break below 1.16. EURINR could test 101 before bouncing within a 101–102.50 range, and EURJPY is attempting to break lower towards 170–168 unless it sustains above 173 for a bullish move to 174–175. Dollar-Yen holds above 147 support and can rise towards 150–151, while USDCNY remains weak towards 7.1650–7.16. Aussie is bearish below 0.6450 targeting 0.64–0.6350. Pound can extend its fall towards 1.34. USDINR stays bearish towards 86.75–86.50 after failing to hold above 87.16.

The US Treasury yields have dipped further and have come into their support zone. We expect the support to hold and the yields to reverse higher again going forward. The Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole meeting tomorrow will be important to watch.The German yields are coming down in line with our expectation. There is room to fall more from here. The 10Yr GoI has come down and can dip further. It can oscillate in range for some time with a negative bias to fall eventually over the medium term. Strong resistance is there to cap the upside.

The Dow Jones is stuck below 45200-45000 and unless a strong follow-through rise is not seen above the mentioned zone, we may expect a fall to 44500-44400 initially. Dax continues to trade within 25000-23500, both being crucial resistance and support levels. A break above 25000 will be needed for the index to rise further towards 25500 over the medium term. Nifty needs to breach 25100 to move towards 25250; else, a decline back towards 24700 can be seen. Nikkei has faced rejection from 44000 and could decline towards 42000 initially. Shanghai looks strong towards 3800-4000. 4000 is a strong resistance.

Brent and WTI have risen as expected and may see slight further upside towards $68 and $64 respectively before resuming their bearish trends. Gold is recovering and could rise towards $3,400–$3,450, while Silver needs to break above $38 to turn bullish towards $39–$40, else it risks falling back to $36.50. Copper remains range-bound between $4.30–$4.50, and Natural Gas still looks weak towards $2.70 support, from where a bounce could occur.

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22 Aug 25. 0755 IST or 0225 GMT or 2225 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index is holding below key resistance at 99 with scope for a pullback towards 98–97 before targeting 100–101, while EURUSD stays rangebound between 1.16–1.18 unless a break below 1.16 extends losses to 1.15–1.14. EURINR is likely to bounce within 101–102.50, and EURJPY must clear 173 to strengthen towards 174–175 or else risk slipping to 170–169. Dollar-Yen looks bullish towards 150–151, USDCNY faces resistance at 7.19 with potential to fall back to 7.16, and Aussie could test 0.64 before rebounding to 0.6450–0.65. The Pound is supported above 1.34 with room for a rise to 1.3450–1.35, while USDINR remains capped below 87.50 and stays vulnerable for a decline towards 86.75–86.50.

The US Treasury yields have bounced back. The support zone is holding well as expected. That keeps intact our view of seeing a rise. The Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole meeting today will be important to watch. The German yields have bounced back but are unlikely to sustain. They can fall back and test their support. The 10Yr GoI has risen back again. There is room to rise in the near term. But strong resistance is there to cap the upside and take it lower again.

The Dow Jones could trade below 45200-45000 and unless a strong follow-through rise is seen above the mentioned zone, we may expect a fall to 44500-44100 initially. Dax continues to trade within 24500-23500, both being crucial resistance and support levels. Nifty needs to breach 25250 in the near term; else, a decline back towards 24700 can be seen. Nikkei could decline towards 42000-41000 initially before rising to 44000-46000 over the medium term. Shanghai looks strong towards 3800-4000. 4000 is a strong resistance.

Crude prices are gaining as a sharp fall in US crude and gasoline inventories along with strong global manufacturing data boosts sentiment, with Brent eyeing $68–69 and WTI $64–65 before turning lower again. Gold looks set to rise towards $3,400–3,450 while above $3,350, and Silver must hold above $38 to extend its move towards $39–40. Copper continues to trade in the $4.30–4.50 range awaiting a breakout, while Natural gas has rebounded from $2.70 support and can head towards $2.85–2.90.

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25 Aug 25. 0841 IST or 0311 GMT or 2311 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index can head towards 99-100 in the near term if it sustains above current levels. While EURUSD and EURINR continue to stay rangebound between 1.18–1.16 and 102.50/103-101.00. EURJPY will have to break 173 to strengthen to rise further, else it can trade within the 171-173 region for now. Dollar-Yen looks bullish towards 150–151. USDCNY can be vulnerable to fall towards 7.14 if breaks below 7.16 in the near term. Aussie and Pound can trade within 0.655-0.645 and 1.36-1.34/33 range respectively. USDINR has limited downside potential to 87.00-86.90. Eventually it is likely to bounce back towards 87.50 and higher. US New Home sales data release is scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields fell sharply on Friday after Powell indicated possible rate cuts in his Jackson Hole speech. Failure to rise back immediately can drag the yields lower and will reduce the chances of the rise that we were expecting. The German yields have dipped. They remain vulnerable to break their immediate support and fall more. The 10Yr GoI is moving up as expected. But there is limited upside from here as the strong resistance that is ahead can cap the upside and drag it down again.

The Dow Jones rose sharply on Friday on signal of interest rate cut by Powell. There is scope for a rally to 46000-47000. Dax continues to trade within 24500-23500. Nifty saw profit taking on Friday and has remained well below 25200. But while above 24800, a possible rise can be seen today. Nikkei could decline towards 42000-41000 initially before rising to 44000-46000 over the medium term. Shanghai has rallied well and while the strong uptrend holds, it can soon test 4000, a strong resistance.

Brent and WTI have risen as expected and can extend further towards $68–$69 and $64–$65 respectively before resuming their bearish trend. Gold and Silver have surged sharply, with Gold likely to test $3,450–$3,500 and Silver aiming for $39.50–$40.00 in the near term. Copper remains range-bound between $4.40 and $4.50, awaiting a breakout, while Natural Gas has tested crucial support near $2.6980; holding above this keeps the chances alive for a rise to $2.85–$2.90, but a break lower could drag it to $2.60–$2.50.

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26 Aug 25. 0809 IST or 0239 GMT or 2239 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index failed to hold its gains after news of Trump firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The downside can be limited to 97 and until further clarity the target of 99.00-99.50 is kept alive. EURUSD and EURINR continue to stay rangebound between 1.18–1.16 and 103.00-101.50. EURJPY is trading lower within its 173-171 range. Dollar-Yen is also coming off and a confirmed break below 147 if seen can drag it further to 145 initially before bouncing back later. USDCNY can test 7.14 soon. Aussie and Pound can trade within 0.655-0.645 and 1.36-1.34/33 range respectively. USDINR had risen well yesterday and is currently trading higher on the NDF as well. The pair could extend its up move towards 87.87–88.00 in the near term. US Durable goods, US Case Schiller & US Consumer Confidence data releases are scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have bounced back thereby reducing the chances of more fall. Broadly it looks like the yields can oscillate in a range. Within the range there is limited room on the downside which keeps the chances high for the yields to rise back again. The German yields have bounced back. The support is holding well. If this sustains, the yields can rise further in the coming days. The 10Yr has risen and come up to its crucial resistance. We expect the resistance to hold and the 10Yr GoI to fall back.

The Dow Jones and Dax have dipped but while the Dow could limit its fall to 45000, Dax could decline to 24000-23500. Nifty rose yesterday as expected but could decline again today as profit taking is possible before the tariff impact of 50% likely to come into effect from tomorrow. Nifty can dip to 24800 while below 24200-25000. Nikkei and Shanghai too have dipped slightly today. Nikkei can test 42000-41000 while Shanghai can test resistance at 4000.

Brent and WTI have both tested resistances near $69 and $65, and as long as these levels hold, they risk a corrective dip towards $67–$65 and $62–$60 respectively in the coming weeks. Gold remains poised for a rise to $3,450–$3,500, though failure to break above $3,450 could drag it back to $3,350 or even $3,300–$3,250. Silver is steady above $38, keeping the scope open for a climb towards $39.50–$40. Copper continues to trade within the $4.50–$4.40 range awaiting a breakout, while Natural Gas has bounced from support and could extend higher towards $2.90 unless a reversal unfolds.

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