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  • #15,341
  • Aug 2, 2025 1:07am Aug 2, 2025 1:07am
The EUR/USD advanced to 1.1597, reaching the midpoint of the weekly long bearish candle, after US NFP Payrolls came in much below forecasts. For now, the 1.1600/15 resistance zone is keeping the pair from advancing further to 1.1678-1.1700. However, consolidation and a loss of momentum below this zone should lead to a drop towards the 1.1500/03 and 1.1460/46 support zones.

Buyers need a correction lower to trigger their bullish positions towards higher levels, such as 1.1830 and 1.1900. Sellers should wait for bearish signals so they can lead the price below 1.1392 towards 1.1350/10.

Have a great weekend!


Weekly volatility (range) 138 pips

Option expiries for Monday: 1.1550 (EU2.15b), 1.1500 (EU1.01b), 1.1600 (EU1.17b) source: financialjuice.com

Significant news - US Factory Orders, US Trade Balance & US Initial Jobless Claims.

4H
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #15,342
  • Aug 2, 2025 3:33am Aug 2, 2025 3:33am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
The EUR/USD advanced to 1.1597, reaching the midpoint of the weekly long bearish candle, after US NFP Payrolls came in much below forecasts. For now, the 1.1600/15 resistance zone is keeping the pair from advancing further to 1.1678-1.1700. However, consolidation and a loss of momentum below this zone should lead to a drop towards the 1.1500/03 and 1.1460/46 support zones. Buyers need a correction lower to trigger their bullish positions towards higher levels, such as 1.1830 and 1.1900. Sellers should wait for bearish signals so they can lead the...
while i can’t ignore the monthly candle (first red in the year) and weekly candle (still strong despite the wick), that daily candle puts bear at risk. We might not get a continuation especially market sentiment has shifted dramatically after nfp.

we might get a wide range consolidation for weeks.

but if bear can’t keep pa under 1620 bull may try to take over again

i am still waiting for a proper pull back to reach mt bear target before further up to 1.2 and above
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #15,343
  • Aug 2, 2025 4:21am Aug 2, 2025 4:21am
After the nfp release which caused a big spike on EURUSD. Feeling like price could pull back to around 1.151 - 1.49. It rallied massively on Friday and could now be facing resistance at previous liquidity points. There was also a smt divergence between eur and gbp could potentially short monday asia and london session

  • #15,344
  • Aug 3, 2025 8:11pm Aug 3, 2025 8:11pm
1550 may have some light support but 1520 matters
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #15,345
  • Aug 3, 2025 10:04pm Aug 3, 2025 10:04pm
Quoting johncen
1550 may have some light support but 1520 matters
bounced off 1550 while i m expecting 152x

for now i m expecting choppy pa under 162x then market will determine if bull will return or bear kicks back in
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #15,346
  • Aug 3, 2025 10:34pm Aug 3, 2025 10:34pm
The EUR/USD is currently consolidating near its recent high, exhibiting a bullish sentiment following the U.S. dollar's sell-off after the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report.

The primary resistance level above the current high is identified at 1.1600-1.1615. A decisive break above this zone could signal further upward movement.

The uptrend remains intact as long as the pair trades above the 1.1550 and 1.1516 support levels. If the price tests 1.1550, expect either continued consolidation or a bounce, depending on the prevailing market sentiment.

Have a great week!


Daily volatility (range) 63 pips

Option expiries for Monday: 1.1550 (EU2.15b), 1.1500 (EU1.01b), 1.1600 (EU1.17b) source: financialjuice.com

Significant news - US Factory Orders

1H
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  • #15,347
  • Aug 3, 2025 11:30pm Aug 3, 2025 11:30pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} while i can’t ignore the monthly candle (first red in the year) and weekly candle (still strong despite the wick), that daily candle puts bear at risk. We might not get a continuation especially market sentiment has shifted dramatically after nfp. we might get a wide range consolidation for weeks. but if bear can’t keep pa under 1620 bull may try to take over again i am still waiting for a proper pull back to reach mt bear target before further up to 1.2 and above
I think after this move things will calm down. The pair is overbought and bears have another one leg to sell. As you said in one of your post August is a ranging month. Bulls always fail trying to catch a retrace down after moves like Friday's. I'm setting a target at least for 1.1461 and will think to trail for lower below 1.1392 if we break below.

Have a great week ahead!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #15,348
  • Aug 4, 2025 1:01am Aug 4, 2025 1:01am
Looking for this eventuality topside, though I am hot on the buy button and looking for entry signals.

Downside- looking for any confirmation patterns to have a correction down to 38.2% fib (beginning of rising TL of flag) or correcting down to 50% of the larger topside move.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 292.png Size: 18 KB
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #15,349
  • Aug 4, 2025 1:57am Aug 4, 2025 1:57am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} I think after this move things will calm down. The pair is overbought and bears have another one leg to sell. As you said in one of your post August is a ranging month. Bulls always fail trying to catch a retrace down after moves like Friday's. I'm setting a target at least for 1.1461 and will think to trail for lower below 1.1392 if we break below. Have a great week ahead!
while i have bear bias have to say that Friday move is stronger than i thought! If bull continues to push higher than bear is in trouble!

i m watching on the sideline
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #15,350
  • Aug 4, 2025 2:14am Aug 4, 2025 2:14am
Quoting johncen
{quote} while i have bear bias have to say that Friday move is stronger than i thought! If bull continues to push higher than bear is in trouble! i m watching on the sideline
Sure but the bull move has overreacted needs correction. 1.1600/15 should hold in a first attempt.
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  • #15,351
  • Aug 4, 2025 2:25am Aug 4, 2025 2:25am
I think its showing it wants to rise above the weekly pivot - 4H US dollar index

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DXY_2025-08-04_10-23-46 (1).png Size: 23 KB
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  • #15,352
  • Aug 4, 2025 2:27am Aug 4, 2025 2:27am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Sure but the bull move has overreacted needs correction. 1.1600/15 should hold in a first attempt.
yea i think the market overreacted with the news on Friday. Next fomc is not until Sep and its too early to start selling dollars for that. Even if fed started to lower interest rates the gap between the US and EU is still substantial. there are not many red news this week, but tariff talk may still be the hot topic especially what will happen to the US-China talk?

However as i expect choppy pa if we get near 1520 i think i may try a long.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #15,353
  • Aug 4, 2025 3:03am Aug 4, 2025 3:03am
Quoting johncen
{quote} yea i think the market overreacted with the news on Friday. Next fomc is not until Sep and its too early to start selling dollars for that. Even if fed started to lower interest rates the gap between the US and EU is still substantial. there are not many red news this week, but tariff talk may still be the hot topic especially what will happen to the US-China talk? However as i expect choppy pa if we get near 1520 i think i may try a long.
I'm positive about us china this week but it will depend on Trumps talk. Testing some small longs on support levels should protect any shorts. Also I think we need another one catalyst to go bull all long!
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  • #15,354
  • Aug 4, 2025 3:11am Aug 4, 2025 3:11am
Quoting Matts Micro
Looking for this eventuality topside, though I am hot on the buy button and looking for entry signals. Downside- looking for any confirmation patterns to have a correction down to 38.2% fib (beginning of rising TL of flag) or correcting down to 50% of the larger topside move. {image}
Long
I have a good signal with my system at my Area Of Interest. We'll see if we can BO topside from here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 293.png Size: 21 KB
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #15,355
  • Edited 3:33am Aug 4, 2025 3:22am | Edited 3:33am
Sentix Investor Confidence in some min. Green its a buy, red its a sell until us news hit!

Lets see if I'm right! If I'm wrong I'm buying the bears!

1.1550

Edit:
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  • #15,356
  • Aug 4, 2025 3:31am Aug 4, 2025 3:31am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
Sentix Investor Confidence in some min. Green its a buy, red its a sell until us news hit! Lets see if I'm right! If I'm wrong I'm buying the bears! 1.1550
-3,7 thats a hard miss
  • #15,357
  • Aug 4, 2025 4:06am Aug 4, 2025 4:06am
H4 opening level 1.1558
  • #15,358
  • Aug 4, 2025 4:20am Aug 4, 2025 4:20am
market lost direction after that friday rally. I m signing off early
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #15,359
  • Edited 5:08am Aug 4, 2025 4:55am | Edited 5:08am
This morning, the bears tried to attack the 1.1580 (futures) level three times, and each time a significant number of buyers appeared to absorb it all...
However, the bulls were too weak to push this higher.
Now we're standing at a significant resistance level, and it's unclear what to do. There's no momentum, no impulse...
Will any bulls be buying at this price?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #15,360
  • Aug 4, 2025 5:34am Aug 4, 2025 5:34am
Quoting halkins
This morning, the bears tried to attack the 1.1580 (futures) level three times, and each time a significant number of buyers appeared to absorb it all... However, the bulls were too weak to push this higher. Now we're standing at a significant resistance level, and it's unclear what to do. There's no momentum, no impulse... Will any bulls be buying at this price? {image}
Does anybody have the same feeling that it would be great to grab the bulls' STOP LOSS cluster and shoot up?
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