EURUSD London Session Manipulation (AMD)

Strategy Update — Wednesday, July 30th

EURUSD
-1R loss

After a tradeless start to the week, a valid setup finally appeared this morning, and I took it.

Frankfurt Open gave a clean manipulation of Asia Low and some stacked lows (classic low-resistance liquidity).
Price reversed with a doji and two bullish M15 candles.
I entered on the close of the second bullish candle after a Buy Signal printed on Market Cipher — fully in line with my system.

Additional confluence? Yesterday’s NY session brought price down to an old NWOG level — a perfect spot for a bullish pullback to play off.

Initially, the trade looked great — two strong bullish candle closes — but momentum stalled.
Price began ranging around my entry, and I figured we might chop sideways through London and NY Open before a big move post-FOMC later today.

Well, the market had other plans.
Price dropped, hit my stop near the end of my session window, and continued falling aggressively through NY Open. Textbook invalidation.

A valid loss — and frankly, a beautiful setup I’d take again without hesitation: clean Asia manipulation, a doji close, and a clear reversal. That’s my bread-and-butter.
It just didn’t play out this time.

But that’s where perspective matters.
With a strategy win rate around 38%, I’m expecting 6–7 losers per 10 trades. That’s just the nature of the system. The data doesn’t lie.

As of now, the strategy is sitting at -2R for the month with one day left in July. The account balance has dipped back below $200.
Am I concerned? Not at all. I’ve been here before.
Backtested data shows how quickly things can flip. July 2024 closed at -2.5R, followed by +7.5R in August and +9R in September. Just like that — +16.5R in two months. Massive swings happen. Furthermore data shows that July is the 3rd worst month with a total net gain in 4 previous years of just 6.5R.

Key takeaway:
Zoom out. Focus on quarters, not single trades. Focus on the year, not one bad month. That’s how professionals stay grounded.

On to the last day of July. Let’s see what it brings.

Hi! I’m really glad you’re finding value in the thread — that means a lot. I try to focus not just on technicals and entries (which are only part of the equation), but also on mindset and a proper, structured approach. That’s what really builds long-term success.

To answer your question about journaling:
Yes, I journal all of my trades daily. It helps me stay accountable, reflect on my decisions, and track patterns — both in performance and psychology. I keep things pretty simple in terms of metrics, since my strategy doesn’t rely on multiple layers of confirmation or complex price action analysis.
Here’s what I typically track:

1. Date and time of entry
2. Whether there was a confirmed M15 divergence (based on my indicator)
3. Trade result (win, loss, BE)
4. Screenshots of each trade

That’s about it — no overcomplication. I use a Google Sheet for this, which works well for my needs. It’s straightforward, easy to maintain, and I’ve attached a screenshot below so you can see how minimal it is.
This thread actually serves as a more detailed journal for me — a space where I can expand on the "why" behind each trade, how I felt during execution, and what I learned. That extra layer of context, especially around psychological hurdles, is super valuable.

Right now, I don’t use TradeZella or any similar platforms — but I plan to in the future. Those kinds of tools offer great insights, especially for tracking recurring mistakes, and I definitely see the benefit of integrating one as my system evolves.

If your strategy involves more variables or discretionary decisions, I’d recommend tracking more metrics. The more data you have, the better you can understand your edge — what’s working, what’s not, and why.

I’m very data-driven, so relying on "gut feeling" doesn’t make sense to me. To consistently profit, you need a proven, tested edge — both backtested and forward-tested — that gives you the confidence to execute without second-guessing. Otherwise, fear and doubt will creep in. You’ll start skipping trades, closing early, or chasing setups that don’t align with your plan. I’ve been there.

Now, thanks to that data and structure, I can execute almost flawlessly, with only the occasional deviation — and I’m actively working to eliminate even those.

A Quick Note on Backtesting. Once you start collecting solid data, tools like ChatGPT can actually help a lot with analyzing your edge. I’ve used it to dig into performance trends, filter out weak setups, and uncover ways to refine entries or exits.
But — and this is important — you must backtest honestly. Don’t justify skipped trades or losses with “well, in real time I wouldn’t have entered.” That mindset completely undermines the process. Backtest as if you’re trading live. Be consistent. Otherwise, your results will be skewed and you’ll think you have an edge when you don’t.

Another big benefit of journaling and backtesting: knowing what to expect.
For example, I know from 54 months of testing that losing streaks — even long ones — are normal. I’ve had 5 losses in a row 15 times and 11 losses in a row twice (!).
That kind of data helps me stay mentally grounded. If I take 6–8 losses in a row, I don’t panic or abandon the system. I know it’s just variance. If a trader can’t handle streaks like that, this game might not be for them. That’s the harsh truth.

Hope this helped a bit! If you’ve got any other questions, feel free to ask — I’m always happy to share what I’ve learned.

Amazing thank you so much, so much more valuable than you think. Could you also share with me your thoughts on the CRT strategy because i guess you've heard of it because you follow some ICT principles. Thanks

I’m not really familiar with CRT strategy. Can you tell me more about it? Is it somehow connected to ICT?

Warsawtrader..
What also helps in the way you are trading is implementing this easy rule:

-Sell the Asian high when in a downtrend
-Buy the Asian low when in a uptrend

Build a narrative from Daily TF, then find your model in direction of the htf bias...ride the expansion into your htf DOL

check this out.... see those expansion moves just after the liquidity sweep on h4.... you should position yourself for such moves

I might not be able to explain it to you in a good manner. It's called Candle Range Trading and it consists of trading the reversals (in line with the Draw on Liquidity) using ICT conceps such as Key Levels (OB, FVG etc). The founder is Romeotpt, he has a twitter account. I thought you would have heard of it.

Thanks for the recommendations everyone, but I’m not looking to improve my system, search for additional confluences or add higher time frame alignment.

At this stage in my trading journey, my only responsibility is to show up with discipline, execute when the signal appears and let the trade play out—whether it hits TP, BE or SL.

My strategy has been thoroughly tested—both backtested and forward tested—across 55 months of data, covering pre-COVID, during COVID and post-COVID market conditions. It’s proven and it doesn’t require any further tweaking.

I have complete faith in the system. What I need now is flawless execution. That’s what will make the difference and lead to life-changing results in the years ahead.

It’s consistency and discipline that will get me there—not more complexity or added confluence.

Strategy Update — Thursday & Friday, July 31th - August 1st

EURUSD
Thursday – 1 x BE
Friday – 1 x 2R Win

Thursday Recap
A textbook setup: clean Asia High manipulation into a retest of NWOG, right at the 50% level of a bearish A-B leg — offering premium pricing and solid short confluence.
After a quiet London session, price moved sharply in NY session, reaching 1.6R, allowing me to move my SL to break-even.
Unfortunately, price reversed and tagged my entry level, stopping me out at BE.

Had I trailed my stop behind the last M15 fractal, the trade would have hit full TP during Friday’s London session. But that’s not in my playbook. My rules are clear:
Once 1.5R is reached, move SL to BE. No trailing.
So while it was a BE trade, it was still a win in execution and discipline — and that matters more than the missed R.

Friday Recap
Coming into Friday, price had not yet swept the recent low, keeping the short bias valid.
During Frankfurt Open, Asia High was manipulated and a sell signal printed shortly after. I entered one minute before M15 candle close, anticipating the signal and securing a solid 10-pip SL entry.
Result: A smooth 2R win, with TP hit just above Asia Low.
Quick, clean, and entirely by the book.

Some might ask why I didn’t target the H1 low or recent swing structure for more R (around 2.7R). While that was a valid target, my system follows a strict mechanical TP rule: 2R, no discretion.
Simple, repeatable, stress-free.

Final Thoughts
Two solid trades to wrap up the week:
1 BE
1 Full 2R Win

Both executed with complete discipline and alignment with my strategy.
Very satisfied with how I handled these.

Weekly & monthly performance recaps are coming soon!

Weekly Performance Recap — July 28th - August 3rd

EURUSD:

1. 4 trades available
2. Results:

1. 2 x full losses (-2R)
2. 1 x 1R win (+2R)
3. 1 x BE

Net Market Return: 0R

My Execution:

1. Trades taken: 3 out of 4 valid
2. Results:

1. 1 win
2. 1 loss
3. 1 break-even

Personal Net Result: +1R


Key Takeaway:
Overall, this was a solid week in terms of execution and mindset. While I did miss one valid trade due to a moment of discretionary thinking—specifically, being fixated on a level that price didn’t reach—that mistake served as a clear reminder of why sticking to my tested rules is non-negotiable. That kind of on-the-fly decision-making was never part of the system I developed or backtested, so there’s no reason to start incorporating it now. It’s simply not professional, and I won’t let it become a habit.

On the positive side, I see noticeable growth in how I manage trades once I’m in them. I didn’t micro-manage, I didn’t close trades early out of fear or greed, and I wasn’t emotionally attached to the outcomes. I allowed each position to reach either full TP, SL, or BE according to plan. That’s a huge win for me and a major confidence boost. It reinforces the identity I’m building for myself as a trader—disciplined, process-driven, and focused on the long game rather than the result of any single trade.

Looking Ahead:
Let’s carry that energy into a fresh week and a brand-new month.

Stay focused. Stay consistent.

Have you considered an EA to execute your mechanical strategy in a consistent way without hesitation, discretion, omissis etc...?

I've already started working on this with Claude AI and have the main framework in place. Right now, I’m focused on refining it by adding a few important filters, as there were instances where the execution wasn’t behaving as expected.

I still need to incorporate logic for daylight saving time changes, as well as rules to avoid trading during major news events like NFP and CPI releases. There are also a few smaller adjustments I need to make, but overall the structure is coming together nicely.

That being said, I'm happy to execute and trade manually and not rely solely on the EA.

Strategy Update — Monday, August 4th

EURUSD
-1R loss

One of those days where the market had other plans.
After a promising start, price turned around and ended up hitting my stop.

It began with a small 9:30 GMT manipulation of the Asia Low in a market already looking quite extended following last Friday’s NFP bonanza.
What followed was some very interesting price action — three clean breaks of internal structure to the upside, each followed by retracements to the 0.618–0.786 Fibonacci zone.
The final push, however, failed to break through the Asia High and price went sideways for the rest of the day.
Tuesday's Asia Open gave it one more try but failed again, leaving behind beautiful equal highs — potential targets for the future.

Instead, price dropped and hit my stop just before Tuesday’s Frankfurt Open, taking out Monday’s Low in the process.

Unwanted result, but still a valid trade.
Journaled and moving on to the next one!

Hi Warsaw,
i can not agree more with your stratagy.
it's very similar to mine. im also working with gbp
but one thing bothers me is that i can not figure out which events will influence this system.
i m gathering the data about consecutive losses, i think some of then may effect by some events
but i could not identify which events we can sort out, when it happen we can avoid it.
thanks again for your sharing, and could you share the event sort out stratagy.

Hi mate, thanks for your message!
Could you please clarify what you mean by “events”? Are you referring to market conditions—like shorting from Discount instead of Premium, or entering longs before significant liquidity has been swept?

Strategy Update — Tuesday, August 5th

EURUSD
-1R loss

Took a relatively quick loss this morning following Frankfurt Open. Price manipulated the Asia Low and printed a Buy Signal before 8AM GMT — a pretty clean early morning setup, especially after the Previous Day’s Low was swept late in the Asia session.

Execution was fully in line with the playbook, so despite the loss, it's a win from a discipline and process standpoint.


Now let’s see if Wednesday can bring a solid trade to offset the two losses from this week.

i think it's this major events, what i mean is maybe only NFP and US inflation data is not enough, i testing if encounter some major events the maxima consecutive losses will reach 15 times which is unacceptable.

1. No trades during major events: Especially NFP and US inflation data (all active trades are closed 2 minutes before the news release)

I close all trades 2 minutes before major news events: NFP, CPI, FED Interest Rate Decision. My backtesting shows that most other news releases don’t significantly impact price action to justify early closures — so I don’t bother with them.

Keep in mind that NFP only happens once a month, on the first Friday, and CPI is also a monthly release. Their overall impact on your trading results is minimal, provided you manage them correctly.

You brought up a really important point: consecutive losses — specifically the idea that “15 consecutive losses is unacceptable.” Let’s unpack that.
A 15-trade losing streak sounds extreme — and it is — but whether it's realistic depends entirely on your win rate. If your strategy wins 50% or more of the time, then yes, 15 straight losses is incredibly rare. For example, with a 50% win rate, the odds of hitting a 15-loss streak are around once in every 65,000 trades — basically negligible.

But not all strategies have that kind of win rate.
My system, for instance, has a 38% win rate, and with those odds, 15 consecutive losses would be expected about once every 6,000–7,000 trades. Still rare, but technically possible.

Now let’s look at something a bit more relevant: 10 losses in a row. At a 38% win rate, that’s expected roughly once every 430 trades — not common, but not out of the question either.
In 55 months of backtest and forward test, I've had:
- 11 losers in a row - twice
- 10 losers in a row - once
- 9 losers in a row - once
- 8 losers in a row - once
- 7 losers in a row - 4 times
- 6 losers in a row - 8 times
- 5 losers in a row - 15 times (!)

And you know what, the strategy is still highly profitable over a longer period of time!

That’s why it’s critical to know your numbers:

1. Win rate
2. Risk-to-reward ratio
3. Frequency of trade setups
4. And results from tools like Monte Carlo simulations

Without that data, you’re not trading a strategy — you’re hoping.

Taking this into account, you should not risk less than 10% since there could be a losing streak of 10 to 12 in a row and you would burn up your account in terms of your plan to reach 250,000usd in 19 months.