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  • Linked: FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) | Brokerage Account XXXXXXXX78
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  • #21
  • Jul 31, 2025 6:18pm Jul 31, 2025 6:18pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Best thing is to reinstate him/her/undecided, let them rant and ignore them.
well putting them on ignore will block them from posting, so better that way to clear the clutter.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #22
  • Jul 31, 2025 6:20pm Jul 31, 2025 6:20pm
USDJPY starting to diverge from yield differential implied fair value, may potentially be a good signal to sell Spot USDJPY but not quite wide enough, will give a heads up when i start to load shorts...

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We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #23
  • Jul 31, 2025 6:22pm Jul 31, 2025 6:22pm
Trump causing a havoc this evening...

you get a raise, you get a raise,

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We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #24
  • Jul 31, 2025 6:38pm Jul 31, 2025 6:38pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} well putting them on ignore will block them from posting, so better that way to clear the clutter.
You’ll miss out on the entertainment!
However best of luck with your thread
  • #25
  • Jul 31, 2025 7:23pm Jul 31, 2025 7:23pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} i started the rant, but you gone personal, you clearly didnt read the forexfactory forum rule of respecting fellow traders. good riddance
Lol I knew it was that guy.

He does this kind of stuff as a career, just being annoying... He's been firmly on my ignore list for a while.
You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink
  • #26
  • Jul 31, 2025 11:00pm Jul 31, 2025 11:00pm
Maybe you mentioned your Darwinex letters? Maybe not? Maybe I missed it.
As you know, the underlying account doesn't mean much.
I see a couple of relatively major dips in your equity. Those sort of things don't go well with Darwinex.
Curious to see how the RE has treated you over the months.
Also, I see a large net swap in the details of your account.
Do you tend to open positions more on the swap positive sides?
  • #27
  • Aug 1, 2025 7:02am Aug 1, 2025 7:02am
Quoting OutThere
Maybe you mentioned your Darwinex letters? Maybe not? Maybe I missed it. As you know, the underlying account doesn't mean much. I see a couple of relatively major dips in your equity. Those sort of things don't go well with Darwinex. Curious to see how the RE has treated you over the months. Also, I see a large net swap in the details of your account. Do you tend to open positions more on the swap positive sides?
The model trades spot based solely on divergence from the yield differentials, more often than not Spot moves are very short term and irrational driven by sentiments, but when whatever sentiment and rhetoric dies down eventually hot money will always be seeking to buy into the currency with the higher yields.

the model has a holding period on average almost 6 months, so yea if it happens to be long currency with positive swaps then it adds to the benefit of the system but net net i wouldnt rely on the swaps, because sometimes we might be in a -ve carry trade for a really long time like USDJPY short for last year....

With darwinex, i recognized that when you start with them, their Risk manager algorithm rewards you if you can keep drawdown below 6.5% (with the risk multiplier) low, but if you look at myfxbook since running this live, the max drawdown recorded was around 4.5%, if Darwinex started my trackrecord with a 2or 2.5x multiplier, then yes at this moment i have no problem to say that the risk manager has adjusted the risk lower to 1.23x instead...
which aligns better. the initial days of the track record at darwinex may have been skewed by the aggressive risk factor which isnt by my choice but itll eventually smoothen out over time.

Meanwhile if you look at the Tradeviz link, you can see the strategy has been trading with a consistent lot size, always 1mil unit per execution, never increased as the account grew. so that shows the robustness of the strategy without the compounding gains you would've experience if sizing was on a % basis...

if we run it with % basis its gona be 1% of equity per execution. so 1 mil USD per execution on a 100mil USD account or a 1mil USD per execution on a 1mil USD account at a 1:100 leverage.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #28
  • Edited Aug 4, 2025 2:20am Aug 3, 2025 5:34pm | Edited Aug 4, 2025 2:20am
got the signal this morning to get out of my AUDUSD short for profit, would've hoped for a better profit but a win's a win.

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We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #29
  • Edited 8:30pm Aug 3, 2025 8:14pm | Edited 8:30pm
Quoting fxtyrant
What better than to start the thread by expressing my opinion in recent weakness in the Dollar. which I personally think is overstretched, Much of the start to this year the USD diversification theme, has seen investors driven to buy currencies such as EUR, or GBP, or even AUD. basically USD has lost strength against almost everything.... Except much of this move is Sentiment driven, be it from Trump wreaking havoc on tariffs and trade policy, or the US government fiscal deficit concerns. Long term fundamentals would dictate that investors in the...
Very interesting thread and a smart(er) way to "skin the cat". Unfortunately 95% of the traders on FF are looking for indicator that will quickly makes them 100% return. No time to think and analyse what you are actually proposing.

My portfolio outside day trading also includes High Yield ETFs.

How much difference in % should be between FXspot and FXspot Yield to enter a trade?

If you can talk about it more, as it related to more of the mechanical way to enter into the trades.
  • #30
  • Aug 4, 2025 2:02am Aug 4, 2025 2:02am
Quoting driven18
{quote} Very interesting thread and a smart(er) way to "skin the cat". Unfortunately 95% of the traders on FF are looking for indicator that will quickly makes them 100% return. No time to think and analyse what you are actually proposing. My portfolio outside day trading also includes High Yield ETFs. How much difference in % should be between FXspot and FXspot Yield to enter a trade? If you can talk about it more, as it related to more of the mechanical way to enter into the trades.
You are very right, there are many ways to skin a cat.
and given my background analyzing not just FX but also cross market behaviours like Commodities, VIX, Rates, Bonds,
i tend to try to look at things at a bigger picture.
and so trades tend to be at a much longer horizon,

btw you did ask one very good question, regarding the difference in % between FX Spot and FX Spot Yield would i enter a trade,
So because different currency pair have different behaviour in yields, what i normally do is i take a historical average (usually a rolling 1 year period) and deploying the usual average with 2 and 3 standard deviation in terms of how far Spot is away from the Yield implied spot rate. so its a bit more dynamic than a fixed %....
that way it adapts well to recency in volatile moves gets taken into account into the model
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #31
  • Aug 5, 2025 10:09pm Aug 5, 2025 10:09pm
Squared out of my GBPUSD Short today at spot 1.3299, good profit

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We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #32
  • Last Post: Aug 13, 2025 9:10pm Aug 13, 2025 9:10pm
Added to directional short trade on GBPCAD this morning at Spot 1.8678

my updated Average GBPCAD short average spot 1.8715
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
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