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The Swamp

  • #124,061
  • Jul 30, 2025 12:42pm Jul 30, 2025 12:42pm
We know the number will be the same, but it will all be about the press conference and whether Powell is starting to wobble and the amount of dissent. Also the level of rhetoric from the X man afterwards.
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #124,062
  • Jul 30, 2025 12:59pm Jul 30, 2025 12:59pm
news coming, lets see if the statement moves it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,063
  • Jul 30, 2025 1:06pm Jul 30, 2025 1:06pm
The statement is not showing a cut Sept.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,064
  • Jul 30, 2025 1:14pm Jul 30, 2025 1:14pm
Lets go and get that 19/06 low now
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,065
  • Jul 30, 2025 1:43pm Jul 30, 2025 1:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
The statement is not showing a cut Sept.
no decision made for Sept, usd strength
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,066
  • Jul 30, 2025 1:44pm Jul 30, 2025 1:44pm
1.1433
on scope
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,067
  • Jul 30, 2025 1:49pm Jul 30, 2025 1:49pm
Quoting Avir
Lets go and get that 19/06 low now
DONE
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,068
  • Jul 30, 2025 1:56pm Jul 30, 2025 1:56pm
That's one of the fast scalp
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FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,069
  • Jul 30, 2025 2:11pm Jul 30, 2025 2:11pm
Quoting Avir
Commander’s Market Logs – Entry 02 Date: Wednesday, 30 July 2025 | Pair: EUR/USD Good morning, Traders, After yesterday’s relatively quiet session following Monday’s 200-pip drop, today tests EUR/USD as the market recalibrates from recent lows. Price action remains shaped by Monday’s sharp selloff and the overnight partial recovery. The German GDP Flash data (released at 09:00 AM BST) came in as follows: QoQ: -0.1% (in line with forecast -0.1%, previous 0.4%) YoY: 0.0% (forecast 0.1%, previous -0.2%) This aligns with the lack of sudden moves on...
Chart update Top Target hit
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FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,070
  • Jul 30, 2025 2:32pm Jul 30, 2025 2:32pm
Long now at 1.14176 for the pull back looking for 1433
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FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,071
  • Jul 31, 2025 5:29am Jul 31, 2025 5:29am
I had hopes to sell 1480.. its looking like a flag may break down.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,072
  • Jul 31, 2025 6:13am Jul 31, 2025 6:13am
Commander’s Market Log – Entry #3
Date: Thursday, 31st July 2025
Good morning, Traders,
Month end is here and EUR/USD has given us a solid 3‑day selloff – thanks to Trump stirring the pot yet again. His latest 10‑day ultimatum to Putin? Looks like his ego is getting under the skin of many world leaders. Anyway, let's park the politics for now and focus on the charts.
I’m still holding short positions and scalping EU. My expectation for today is a break below 1.1400 during the New York session – whether that happens or not, we’ll just have to wait and see. Yesterday we had a bounce off 1.1400, so Asia needed to push EU higher overnight to create enough momentum for a clean break of that level in today’s session, in my view.
All eyes will be on 1:30 BST – the U.S. unemployment data could flip the market on its head or work in our favour. Until then, EUR/USD is likely to range and build energy.
Today’s Key Levels
Pivot Point Level Price
R31.1705
R21.1639
R11.1533
Pivot1.1467
S11.1362
S21.1295
S31.1189

Daily Chart Structure

  1. Rising wedge / triangle pattern break is already confirmed.
  2. Two strong breakout candles have closed below the base and under the fast MAs.
  3. RSI cracked the midline and is sliding lower; MACD rolled over with expanding downside momentum.

Path I’m Mapping

  1. Intraday objective: ~1.1360 remains the target.
  2. If momentum continues, next magnets are mid‑1.13s (~1.1346) and then the May 29 low cluster just above 1.1200.
  3. The “Ursula wave” bounce candidate = daily EMA200 (purple line). It’s still below 1.1200, but by the time we reach there it could drift up closer to 1.12, adding confluence with that May low sweep.

Tactical Map for Today

  1. Scenario A: NY session sweeps 1.1400, fails back inside → short under 1.1398, ride to 1.1360, manage runner for 1.134x if momentum stays heavy.
  2. Scenario B: Direct drop to 1.1360 pre‑NY → don’t chase; look for pullback sell into 1.1388–1.1395 or a retest of the broken wedge around 1.143–1.146.

Invalidation / Stand‑Down

  1. M15–H1 closes above 1.1440–1.1455 = pause shorts, risk of squeeze back into channel grows.

Risk Note
Yes, you can see my 50% margin alert flashing – that’s intentional. I keep my deposits small to enforce discipline and take profits weekly. With today’s volatility, margin spikes are likely, so trade safe and keep your buffers intact.
Good luck to you all,
Avir

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FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,073
  • Jul 31, 2025 6:33am Jul 31, 2025 6:33am
seems to be waiting for news for LL or 1480!
  • #124,074
  • Jul 31, 2025 7:05am Jul 31, 2025 7:05am
The usd may start rising.. The arguments about tariffs are finally going to court today. The constitution plainly gives congress the authority to apply tariffs. These trade deals are not worth the paper printed on without congressional approval. The king is full of shit. A bounce from 1350 ish. has merit.. That bounce could be the last one
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,075
  • Jul 31, 2025 7:11am Jul 31, 2025 7:11am
It wont make 1480, without 1450 letting it. 1450 R. I got the day as a bearish bias. It may be unable to reach 1480.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,076
  • Jul 31, 2025 7:25am Jul 31, 2025 7:25am
possible eg short eg 0.8651.. When u get a short signal, 40/50 pip tp
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,077
  • Jul 31, 2025 8:10am Jul 31, 2025 8:10am
Quoting chess king
seems to be waiting for news for LL or 1480!
here we go
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,078
  • Jul 31, 2025 3:50pm Jul 31, 2025 3:50pm
Quoting gatorinla
It wont make 1480, without 1450 letting it. 1450 R. I got the day as a bearish bias. It may be unable to reach 1480.
I closed this and eg now.. I may try later at 1445
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,079
  • Jul 31, 2025 3:55pm Jul 31, 2025 3:55pm
Quoting gatorinla
The usd may start rising.. The arguments about tariffs are finally going to court today. The constitution plainly gives congress the authority to apply tariffs. These trade deals are not worth the paper printed on without congressional approval. The king is full of shit. A bounce from 1350 ish. has merit.. That bounce could be the last one
Once the court slaps down the illegal tariffs. The USD can rise. The FED can cut. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ourt-challenge
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,080
  • Jul 31, 2025 4:24pm Jul 31, 2025 4:24pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I closed this and eg now.. I may try later at 1445
i had a long yesterday from 1406 trying to see if we can get a retracement but still capped under the downward trendline. Now on sideline. I guess we are close to getting a good signal whether we will go up or down
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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