The Swamp

while we start closing above 1560 it does increase the odds for a pull back

8.8 earthquake off Russian coast.. The West coast under tsunami warning

Oil at 70...

Russia getting so much weaker

Commander’s Market Logs – Entry 02
Date: Wednesday, 30 July 2025 | Pair: EUR/USD
Good morning, Traders,
After yesterday’s relatively quiet session following Monday’s 200-pip drop, today tests EUR/USD as the market recalibrates from recent lows. Price action remains shaped by Monday’s sharp selloff and the overnight partial recovery.
The German GDP Flash data (released at 09:00 AM BST) came in as follows:

1. QoQ: -0.1% (in line with forecast -0.1%, previous 0.4%)
2. YoY: 0.0% (forecast 0.1%, previous -0.2%)

This aligns with the lack of sudden moves on EUR/USD, suggesting the market is digesting the data calmly. All eyes now turn to the Eurozone GDP release at 10:00 AM BST.
Today is expected to be slower than Monday’s 200-pip bear move, but volatility may spike later with:

1. US ADP: 13:15 BST
2. US GDP & US Treasury QRA: 13:30 BST
3. FOMC Rate Decision & US Rate Statement: 17:00 BST

Currently, EUR/USD trades at 1.1555, between today’s high of 1.1573 and low of 1.1530.
(Note: The earlier earthquake and tsunami warnings have faded without major damage.)
Technical Outlook

1. Current Price Zone: 1.1530 – 1.1573
2. Support Levels: 1.1513, 1.1476 (critical support)
3. Resistance Levels: 1.1584, 1.1636, 1.1680 (key barrier)

Monday’s large red daily candle created a vacuum in the range, hinting at either a clean follow-through lower or a sharp reversal if buyers step in aggressively.
Support & Resistance Levels for Today

1. R3: 1.1674
2. R2: 1.1636
3. R1: 1.1593
4. Pivot: 1.1556
5. S1: 1.1513
6. S2: 1.1476
7. S3: 1.1433

Observation: Today’s range may extend toward 1.1490 or snap back above 1.1573 before the New York open. Caution is advised around potential fake breakouts.
Disclaimer: This is my personal market log, shared for information purposes only. Please trade your own setups and stay disciplined.
Good luck to all of you today – I’ll see you again after the Eurozone data release.
– Avir

London didnt take 1569. It was R mostly. We may see a LL

going sideways waiting for news

GBP rise opposite eu to 3430,

Oh, I can see while I was chatting, you had an update on your system as well. The whole layout of your chat has been changed now.

ChatGPT said:
Commented
Answer in chat instead
Yes, Commander—the system got a layout refresh, but your document and all saved plans are intact. The update mainly improves navigation and document handling in this new

As I wanted EU is going towards My TP - slowly

Project PivotChart Project coming soon to Swamp :

PivotChart Project – Mission Brief (Phase 1-3)
Objective: To develop an AI-driven tool inspired by the discontinued To The Tick PowerZone service. PivotChart aims to give retail traders access to true confluence zones – historically proven price areas where multiple support/resistance factors overlap – displayed in a clear, actionable daily format.
Background
Many traders remember To The Tick’s PowerZones from the early 2010s: a daily map of high-probability reaction levels combining pivots, fib clusters, bank flow levels, and volume data. To The Tick was widely respected because its levels often aligned with institutional flows. Brokers disliked it because it gave retail traders a genuine edge, and the service eventually shut down.
PivotChart is designed to revive this lost resource, using a mix of AI analysis and modern market data to help traders spot the most critical levels before each trading session.
Phase 1 – Proof of Concept

1. Inputs: Free OHLC data, multi-timeframe pivots (Monthly/Weekly/Daily), Fibonacci retracements/extensions, round numbers.
2. Output: Daily Confluence Map with up to 4 major PowerZones (7-pip bands) each way from current price.
3. Goal: Replicate the most reliable parts of To The Tick without paid data feeds, proving the concept works with public data.

Phase 2 – Enhancement with AI Clustering

1. Use AI to analyze thousands of historical swing points, consolidations, and failed breaks to automatically detect high-probability reaction levels.
2. Introduce multi-factor scoring for each zone: touch frequency, time decay, alignment with major pivots, fibs, and round numbers.
3. Begin adding basic volume profiles from public sources (e.g., CME Euro FX daily volume).
4. Deliver a cleaner daily report for retail traders, including:
   1. Price levels and zones (7-pip width)
   2. Confluence Matrix (like To The Tick’s)
   3. Brief technical outlook for the session.

Phase 3 – Institutional-Grade Data Integration

1. If cost-effective, integrate deeper CME historical volume, open interest, and tick-level data.
2. Build volume-based PowerZones similar to institutional order flow maps.
3. Develop a lightweight chart overlay tool for MT4/MT5/TradingView to visualize zones live.
4. Goal: Provide retail traders a near-institutional view of market geometry without heavy costs.

Tone and Transparency
This is not a commercial promise or a shortcut to guaranteed profits. PivotChart is a research project to revive a proven analytical method that retail traders lost when To The Tick was shut down. My aim is to test, refine, and share this tool with the Forex Factory community for discussion and feedback, while keeping it honest and data-driven.
Next Steps

1. Start Phase 1 testing this week using recent EUR/USD data.
2. Post findings and example charts on Forex Factory to gather feedback from experienced traders.
3. Iterate based on live market reactions and shared insights.
4. If successful, expand to other major pairs.

Commander Avir (Forex Factory Member)
"Bringing real PowerZones back to the retail battlefield, one step at a time."

H&S on the 5m charts point to 1.1470/90.
If the price makes a LL... better chance!

See where this is heading king ? good to see you back again

Done 1.1494 - took Profit

if the eg comes back to 8645,, it may be a short ..
the gu looks better over the eu for a bounce.
The eu looks better for a fall
eg may be safer

EU most likely to fall, but not below 1.1451, that is depending on what FOMC has come up with this evening.

I took a eg short 8641..Some R likely at 8645.. I think it will fall.

this looks like a flag. The way pa looks is, it can fall further without much rise. I can't touch a long until i see some bottoming. It looks like 70/90 pips down below the low to me.
..

It's very bearish... But not in weekly tf! It's still bullish on it.
I have 1.173x/4x as a bounce target if it rise.
I don't know if it rise here 146x/4x. Many levels need to break toward 173x/4x.

1.135x a point of confluence. it might be easy to get there .. Larger in 1.12!

Lets bring on.... FOMC in half an hour

So it looks like --
The FOMC is expected to keep rates unchanged at 4.25–4.50%

while we wait : https://soundcloud.com/djemkumar/back-from-the-ashes