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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #6,321
  • Aug 10, 2007 9:59am Aug 10, 2007 9:59am
What the ****. I just woke up, and my longs got stopped out. I had some short orders in place at some key prices, and then they get stopped out even though they "were" in major profit. They missed the take profit by 40 pips.

There goes April, May, June, and July's profits. I'm back to where I was in April. I guess it could be worse.
  • #6,322
  • Aug 10, 2007 9:59am Aug 10, 2007 9:59am
Quoting J G
Or because the end of the carry trade will be the end of the system...

If the US drops their rates to 4% by September (or earlier), we could see Japan dropping their rates to 0.25% or even 0%.

We'll wait and see what happens. Sub-prime is much worse than people know. Ask those people in the Large Metropolitan cities (New York, Los Angeles, etc.) and they will tell you how bad it is.

As far as carry trades, they will be around. Right now, what we are seeing is flight from risk. Do some research into how carry trades actually work and you'll realize that carry trades will be around for a long time. (Just my two cents).
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #6,323
  • Aug 10, 2007 10:00am Aug 10, 2007 10:00am
Quoting Al_Have1
Think of the bright side. Your account can never reach $0 if you always risk a % of your account.

For example: take your account and multiply it by .98 (a 2% loss). Now, repeat, repeat, repeat....and so on. It is impossible to go broke in this business...right?
Ofcourse!, that is why I keep repeating to newbie's to use sound Money Management!!!
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #6,324
  • Aug 10, 2007 10:01am Aug 10, 2007 10:01am
Bull trap

EDIT - now don't go thinking this is 100% sure!
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #6,325
  • Aug 10, 2007 10:02am Aug 10, 2007 10:02am
my 1H candle closed below the previous hour..
  • #6,326
  • Aug 10, 2007 10:03am Aug 10, 2007 10:03am

1H ,30M and 15M SI cross up...4H and 1H momentum pointing up...did this considered to open long?

"Analysis Is Hard But Trade Is Easy"
  • #6,327
  • Aug 10, 2007 10:05am Aug 10, 2007 10:05am
I think it's a Bull Trap Trap. :-)



Frank


Quoting karmostaji
Bull trap

EDIT - now don't go thinking this is 100% sure!
  • #6,328
  • Aug 10, 2007 10:05am Aug 10, 2007 10:05am
Price testing 238.10, which is 23.6% fibo from the last downtrend
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #6,329
  • Aug 10, 2007 10:05am Aug 10, 2007 10:05am
Quoting Se[V]eN

1H ,30M and 15M SI cross up...4H and 1H momentum pointing up...did this considered to open long?


The Federal Reserve injected $16 Billion. (CNBC)
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #6,330
  • Aug 10, 2007 10:06am Aug 10, 2007 10:06am
Quoting pedro13
IMHO the best way to open positions, is to set your trading platform to put an automatic SL maybe 100 pips for GJ. And when the position is open, you can fine tune it by using a calculator. The one from Alex Douglas is pretty good and it's free: http://www.alexdouglas.com/_vti_bin/...dll/fxcalc.htm. Of course if one just jumps in and out of trades with no plans whatsoever, then this can't help.
Look who's talking

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=3266
Gone to a better place
  • #6,331
  • Aug 10, 2007 10:06am Aug 10, 2007 10:06am
This market is just amazing
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #6,332
  • Aug 10, 2007 10:07am Aug 10, 2007 10:07am
Quoting VishalJ
Ok I think we indians suck at trading GBP/JPY.. One thing's for sure though.. no matter how much I lose.. I don't let it affect me (ok ok I do get minor heart palpitations, sweating and a little chest pain.. but it goes away after a few minutes) Whatever money is lost, we can always make it back.
I have similiar chest pain symptons and sometimes feels this life sucks.....
But, on second thought what would i do without Forex.....
You are absolutely right about the indian mentality. We are more emotional driven and don't want to surrender the Loss positions so easily. we are kind of married to it.....Trying to tend away from it....Everytime i try to make small profit, market goes ahead me leaving me feeling terrible inspite of the profits. Hence, this is the second time i thought of holding longer and result downturn of 200 pips.....
  • #6,333
  • Aug 10, 2007 10:08am Aug 10, 2007 10:08am
Nobody seems to take any notice when I say anything(!) - but I use a completely different kind of technical system from you guys... sometimes, it shows things which your systems perhaps make less clear - and visa-versa.

According to my system, there is no way that it will rise more than a few pips above 238.93. And the only direction for some time to come, in my view, is down.
  • #6,334
  • Aug 10, 2007 10:09am Aug 10, 2007 10:09am
Quoting Se[V]eN

1H ,30M and 15M SI cross up...4H and 1H momentum pointing up...did this considered to open long?


what Karmo said is correct. just use very good MM.

GJ doesnt listen to indicators or charting. just toss a coin, pick heads for long, tails for short. place the trade and put SL and TP at 200 pips each. check back in an hour or two and your trade should be closed with either a profit or loss.
  • #6,335
  • Aug 10, 2007 10:09am Aug 10, 2007 10:09am
Quoting Richardj
Nobody seems to take any notice when I say anything(!) - but I use a completely different kind of technical system from you guys... sometimes, it shows things which your systems perhaps make less clear - and visa-versa.

According to my system, there is no way that it will rise more than a few pips above 238.93. And the only direction for some time to come, in my view, is down.
Ok boss, thank you
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #6,336
  • Aug 10, 2007 10:10am Aug 10, 2007 10:10am
Richard,

I'm listening. How do you get 238.93?


Frank


Quoting Richardj
Nobody seems to take any notice when I say anything(!) - but I use a completely different kind of technical system from you guys... sometimes, it shows things which your systems perhaps make less clear - and visa-versa.

According to my system, there is no way that it will rise more than a few pips above 238.93. And the only direction for some time to come, in my view, is down.
  • #6,337
  • Aug 10, 2007 10:11am Aug 10, 2007 10:11am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Richardj
Nobody seems to take any notice when I say anything(!) - but I use a completely different kind of technical system from you guys... sometimes, it shows things which your systems perhaps make less clear - and visa-versa.

According to my system, there is no way that it will rise more than a few pips above 238.93. And the only direction for some time to come, in my view, is down.
you could apply your system to the aussie pairs thread, we could do with another opinion over there.
  • #6,338
  • Aug 10, 2007 10:11am Aug 10, 2007 10:11am
Ya gotta love the consistencies of these channels on the GBP/JPY. Right at 250 pips over several hours. The bigger channels have run consistently around 500 pips over days at a time.

M2B
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  • #6,339
  • Aug 10, 2007 10:14am Aug 10, 2007 10:14am
Quoting Richardj
Nobody seems to take any notice when I say anything(!) - but I use a completely different kind of technical system from you guys... sometimes, it shows things which your systems perhaps make less clear - and visa-versa.

According to my system, there is no way that it will rise more than a few pips above 238.93. And the only direction for some time to come, in my view, is down.
Great! I agree, but you need to post us a chart to show us what you are talking about. Anybody can babble.

M2B
  • #6,340
  • Aug 10, 2007 10:15am Aug 10, 2007 10:15am
Quoting frank99
Richard,

I'm listening. How do you get 238.93?


Frank

Make a daily chart. Add MAs: 50, 80, 125, 170, 500.

(The first three are not really relevant in this example).

Look at 170 and 500: it may, or may not, mean anything to you, because I'm so used to looking at these things... but that particular shape means

(a) it's a top, and enormously strong resistance once price goes significantly below 500; and

(b) its a VERY significant top - very, very often indicating a massive decline to come.


I'm so used to looking at these things
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