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  • #1,481
  • Edited 1:44pm Jul 24, 2025 1:26pm | Edited 1:44pm
I'd rather a few people giving serious effort in private to a hundred trolls in public telling us how good they are, how wrong we are, and what a nasty SoB that vidvad is for not allowing others to dictate the direction of his own thread.

- Vidvad D'Sonovabicci
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,482
  • Jul 24, 2025 4:24pm Jul 24, 2025 4:24pm
Quoting vidvad
i'd rather a few people giving serious effort in private to a hundred trolls in public telling us how good they are, how wrong we are, and what a nasty sob that vidvad is for not allowing others to dictate the direction of his own thread. - vidvad d'sonovabicci
exactly!!!!!! Great point Vivad
  • #1,483
  • Edited 1:00am Jul 25, 2025 12:49am | Edited 1:00am
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Overnight (for me) completed
waiting for Daily to set up
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  • #1,484
  • Edited 8:50am Jul 25, 2025 8:33am | Edited 8:50am
hope everyone has had a good trading week!

I started a prop account on Tuesday and I am up as of today around $500. This is a gain of 1% on the 50k account. I'm taking this evaluation slowly as I have been burnt before.

I plan on doing the same next week.

Today I really felt the urge to start trading at random. I heard my inner demon say "jump in here" and "jump in there". I fought that MF and I finished the week in the positive which is a huge achievement as the last time I attempted a prop challenge about 1 yr ago I blew it in 2 days flat

Thanks again to all who post here and for Vid for keeping the thread on track.

This trading game is nothing like I expected it to be but I am becoming a better person because of it.
Have a great weekend all

here are the trades this week on Dow YM 1min ORB 1430 uk time:
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  • #1,485
  • Jul 25, 2025 8:46am Jul 25, 2025 8:46am
Bog standard "Mebob"5 minute on 3:05pm bar UK time (10:05am New York). Chugs away over 50%.
SP500 and Gold.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,486
  • Jul 25, 2025 8:48am Jul 25, 2025 8:48am
Quoting maplefx
hope everyone has had a good trading week! I started a prop account on Tuesday and I am up as of today around $500. This is a gain of 1% on the 50k account. I'm taking this evaluation slowly as I have been burnt before. I plan on doing the same next week. Today I really felt the urge to start trading at random. I heard my inner demon say "jump in here" and "jump in there". I fought that MF and I finished the week in the positive which is a huge achievement as the last time I attempted a prop challenge about 1 yr ago I blew it in 2 days flat ...
Way to go Map -good luck
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,487
  • Jul 25, 2025 12:28pm Jul 25, 2025 12:28pm
Quoting maplefx
hope everyone has had a good trading week! I started a prop account on Tuesday and I am up as of today around $500. This is a gain of 1% on the 50k account. I'm taking this evaluation slowly as I have been burnt before. I plan on doing the same next week. Today I really felt the urge to start trading at random. I heard my inner demon say "jump in here" and "jump in there". I fought that MF and I finished the week in the positive which is a huge achievement as the last time I attempted a prop challenge about 1 yr ago I blew it in 2 days flat ...
Excellent job! Keep it going.
  • #1,488
  • Jul 25, 2025 12:43pm Jul 25, 2025 12:43pm
Quoting maplefx
Today I really felt the urge to start trading at random. I heard my inner demon say "jump in here" and "jump in there". I fought that MF and I finished the week in the positive which is a huge achievement as the last time I attempted a prop challenge about 1 yr ago I blew it in 2 days flat
That little devil will always be there. It lives in your head and it tries to rick you into thinking that he is actually you! He is not you. That demon is your ego. You are the awareness behind your ego. Today, you showed your ability to distinguish you as awareness from the ego that wishes it could be you.

But it will always be there. The battle gets easier to win over time, but the battle will never end, in my opinion. I notice it almost every day. But I now really do just that: I "notice" it. It isn't me. But there is no getting rid of it.

Great work you did this week. Trade small. Be patient. Take as many trading days as it takes to reach you profit objective while sticking 100% to your plan. There is no shame in paying a second or third month's sub fee. Just keep developing as a trader.

Proud of what you and the other serious students (and I count myself as a student as well) of this approach are accomplishing.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,489
  • Jul 25, 2025 1:59pm Jul 25, 2025 1:59pm
Quoting vidvad
{quote} That little devil will always be there. It lives in your head and it tries to rick you into thinking that he is actually you! He is not you. That demon is your ego. You are the awareness behind your ego. Today, you showed your ability to distinguish you as awareness from the ego that wishes it could be you. But it will always be there. The battle gets easier to win over time, but the battle will never end, in my opinion. I notice it almost every day. But I now really do just that: I "notice" it. It isn't me. But there is no getting rid of...
thank you Vid and Belgrath and Turnip for the kind encouragement. means a lot
  • #1,490
  • Jul 25, 2025 4:16pm Jul 25, 2025 4:16pm
Quoting turnip15
Bog standard "Mebob"5 minute on 3:05pm bar UK time (10:05am New York). Chugs away over 50%. SP500 and Gold. {image}
Do you trade FDXS, turnip? If so, are you using a fixed bar/Mebob-like set up or are you using your version of roadmap?
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,491
  • Jul 26, 2025 9:02am Jul 26, 2025 9:02am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} Do you trade FDXS, turnip? If so, are you using a fixed bar/Mebob-like set up or are you using your version of roadmap?
No I don't. Sorry.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,492
  • Edited Jul 27, 2025 5:27am Jul 26, 2025 7:50pm | Edited Jul 27, 2025 5:27am
This is the problem. Fixed bar interval trading is the solution.

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The problem is traders try to predict which way the market IS going to go next. When their predictions are wrong, rather than accept the randomness of the outcomes, the trader tries to learn from and then "fix" his prediction errors, never learning that there is truly nothing to predict. The randomness is real.

There are methods that will give us the elusive yet attainable 60% win rate at a 1:1 reward to risk. The difficulty is that we fight with every ounce of ego the notion that we must settle for the 60%. Our ego goads us into believing that we need not suffer the pains of our losses. However, accept them we must. For many, many years I was stuck for this very reason: I was searching for the unified theory of the t shaped maze. I was outsmarted by a rat.

All that we need for consistent profitability is for each of us to accept that the randomness of the individual outcomes of our edge is real. We cannot outsmart randomness. We can only position ourselves in such a way that the sum total of all the random outcomes is a positive rather than a negative sum. This we do by just placing our trades as the set ups present themselves and accepting the outcome of each an every individual attempt for what it is, win or lose, knowing that over the long haul, we cannot help but be profitable.

reference request - Solving T-shaped maze (probability learning): differences between rats and humans - Psychology & Neuroscience Stack Exchange
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,493
  • Edited 10:25am Jul 27, 2025 7:12am | Edited 10:25am
I copied what follows below from someone else. I know it was a trader, and the connection he was making was the spider and his relationship to his web and the trader's relationship to his trading plan (assuming the trader bothered to do the work to construct a trading plan at all). I'd cite the source if I had it, but unfortunately, though I was moved enough to write this down (probably word for word?) I failed at that time to note the source. I've read hundreds of trading books, pdf's, articles, and watched untold number of trading videos over the years. Add to it social media such as twitter, and there is no way for me to find it. I actually pasted it into google and it came up with nothing. I say all of this so that if the person who did come up with this analogy does somehow happen upon this thread he (or she?) doesn't call me out for plagiarism. If I knew the original source, I'd credit that person 100%.


The spider does not need to feed every day . He is content to wait until a morsel comes his way, patient and secure in the knowledge that he has taken the steps necessary for his survival. His carefully crafted web transmits to him all sorts of information. But he knows how to identify the false signals - the wind vibrating his web, a drop of rain - from the real thing enmeshed in it.

Why does he know it so intimately? Because he has carefully constructed his web himself. No one else can build it for him. As a result, the configuration of his web is as uniquely his as his fingerprints (so to speak). Most important, the spider is patient. He waits until he sees a convergence of most of his "tells" before he acts; but when he does, he pounces aggressively and without hesitation.

The patience of the spider eludes me. That is why the fixed bar methods are so attractive to me. I know, for example, that the best trade set ups, the ones where you can risk the range of just a single bar, an M15 at most, but often just an M5 or even just the range of an M1, and potentially achieve a reward 3, 5, even 10 times that risk, are those set ups that occur from either a breakout-pullback-continuation at a pivotal level, or the breakout-failure-reversal at a pivotal level. Look at the NQ this week. Monday just after 9 AM NYC gave a great low risk, high reward long entry at the today's open, yesterday's close pivots. Tuesday gave a similar opportunity to short for potential 230-point profit. Wednesday saw several opportunities for longs and shorts at the same level, with the cleanest being longs between 11:15ish through 11:50ish, and again at 12:30. Thursday the trade du jour was long on the failed breakout below last week's high, and finally, Friday gave several opportunities, though even a quick acting spider trader may have felt a little whipsawed if one wasn't well practiced at recognizing and trading inside of trading ranges bewteen these pivotal levels as price spent most of the AM session (after a brief sell-off) bouncing between the today's open/yesterday's close pivots and the previous day's high pivot.

The key problem for me is that there is no way to know in advance which of the 81 M5 bars will generate the signal during the course of the NYC session. Add the additional 18 bars from the institutional start (8 AM NYC) and, well, you have to have the patience of a spider! As a result, I would often jump the gun, chase and FOMO into the market. That is not the formula for long term success. Quite the opposite. It almost assures that you will be stuck in a cycle of wild wins and wilder losses.

Meanwhile, using a simple fixed bar plan on the M5 NQ, 1:1 reward to risk, and the week would have offered a rather stress-free +3R, with wins on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday, and a -1R loss on Wednesday.

I wish I were the type of trader who could wait patiently for his pitch, fighting off the marginal strikes and sitting on that hanging curve and then swing for the fences.

I wish, like the spider, I could sit in my carefully crafted web of pivotal levels and wait for a morsel to happen by and then pounce!

I am not that trader. I think very few of us are. If you are that type of trader, congrats. If you are not, then fixed bar trading might be the method around which you should consider spinning your own web trading plan.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,494
  • Jul 27, 2025 9:35am Jul 27, 2025 9:35am
Quoting vidvad
I copied what follows below from someone else. I know it was a trader, and the connection he was making was the spider and his relationship to his web and the trader's relationship to his trading plan (assuming the trader bothered to do the work to construct a trading plan at all). I'd cite the source if I had it, but unfortunately, though I was moved enough to write this down (probably word for word?) I failed at that time to note the source. I've read hundreds of trading books, pdf's, articles, and watched untold number of trading videos over...
By "Simple Fixed Bar..." one assumes you are alluding to the 10:05am New York 5 minute bar?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,495
  • Jul 27, 2025 10:24am Jul 27, 2025 10:24am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} By "Simple Fixed Bar..." one assumes you are alluding to the 10:05am New York 5 minute bar?
With NQ, I'm looking at long only, break of the high of the M5 bar that CLOSES at 10:105 (the bar that opens at 10:00 NYC and closes at 10:05 NYC.

Long only, with a rule that allows the entry to shift forward if the trade doesn't trigger due to an immediate inside bar(s) or if a bar makes a lower low without triggering the long.

Also, I did make an error: The loss was Wednesday. I'll go back and fix that.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,496
  • Jul 27, 2025 10:31am Jul 27, 2025 10:31am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} By "Simple Fixed Bar..." one assumes you are alluding to the 10:05am New York 5 minute bar?
Never assume any reference to a particular bar. I have identified dozens of bars across several markets that have a definite positive edge with a 1:1 reward to risk or a .618 reward to risk. I do not trade them all, and in fact I Mostly stick to those I found on the MNQ/NQ.

M5 is the smallest interval I will look at as that was the one with which Mebob started. However, I have found great set ups using M15, M20, M30, M60, and M240 (H4).

I am now working on daily and weekly bars, inspired by the work of Stacey Burke and his use of Monday as the "opening range" of the week, and to a lesser degree his use of Tuesday as "initial balance."

There are likely 100's of fixed bar edges to be found. There is literally "something for everyone" when it comes to fixed bar strategies, turnip!
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,497
  • Edited 12:32pm Jul 27, 2025 10:59am | Edited 12:32pm
Quoting vidvad
{quote} Never assume any reference to a particular bar. I have identified dozens of bars across several markets that have a definite positive edge with a 1:1 reward to risk or a .618 reward to risk. I do not trade them all, and in fact I Mostly stick to those I found on the MNQ/NQ. M5 is the smallest interval I will look at as that was the one with which Mebob started. However, I have found great set ups using M15, M20, M30, M60, and M240 (H4). I am now working on daily and weekly bars, inspired by the work of Stacey Burke and his use of Monday...
Thanks for that. I was getting confused and disorientated by the plethora of different bars under discussion. I will retire to the sidelines and see what the original mebob nq will bring but I will pop in now and again to see how you chaps are getting on with your plans. Good luck
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,498
  • Jul 27, 2025 1:53pm Jul 27, 2025 1:53pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Thanks for that. I was getting confused and disorientated by the plethora of different bars under discussion. I will retire to the sidelines and see what the original mebob nq will bring but I will pop in now and again to see how you chaps are getting on with your plans. Good luck
You should only concern yourself with whatever fixed bar interval is working for you. I have no idea what exact fixed bar giga, Maple, Batavia, or Belgrath are trading. Blue does a lot with opening range breaks, which are subsets of the fixed bar interval method. Mebob is a subset. Etc. and so on.

What matters is the method. If you try to follow what everyone else is doing the method leads to madness.

I wasn't the first who said it and I don't recall who it was who said it here in the thread, but the great thing about fixed bar interval trading plans is that there is at least one, probably several, to fit everyone's schedule, time zone, and life style.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,499
  • Jul 27, 2025 6:37pm Jul 27, 2025 6:37pm
Quoting vidvad
I copied what follows below from someone else. I know it was a trader, and the connection he was making was the spider and his relationship to his web and the trader's relationship to his trading plan (assuming the trader bothered to do the work to construct a trading plan at all). I'd cite the source if I had it, but unfortunately, though I was moved enough to write this down (probably word for word?) I failed at that time to note the source. I've read hundreds of trading books, pdf's, articles, and watched untold number of trading videos over...

The Spider what an excellent analogy!!!!!!
... I have now twice deleted long reply's lol....trying to coherently put thoughts out in a logical way readers will understand...
I give up... If you can make sense of what im saying ...Kudos to you lol.

Short short readers digest version...........

How do I peel this onion back ? I don't know but how can we humans with cognitive reasoning screw things up so easily being at the top of the food chain.
Perhaps we need to train our frontal cortex to act like our amygdala and just instantaneously fire upon our trading signals lol.

Cheetahs, Cougars etc highly efficient killers of their prey. That act only when their ideal conditions permit.. Yet operating on just a tiny fraction of our brains power.

Perhaps an answer is in simplicity ? If this then that....

Where am I going with this ,,,No idea,, just random thoughts that come to mind as I think to myself..... "Blue ! BE THE SPIDER"

Thanks again to Vidvad for firing up my Cerebral Cortex....
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #1,500
  • Jul 27, 2025 11:29pm Jul 27, 2025 11:29pm
Talk about a long wait
but it got there
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