What happen in the market today?

Gold prices rise as global policymakers gather for ECB forum in Sintra

Gold prices rose on Tuesday, drawing a bullish candle with a small shadow on the top of the candle crossing the 50-day moving average from the bottom. Gold prices formed a high of 3357 low of 3301, and a closing of 3337.

The rise in gold prices extended Monday's gains after a sharp decline on Friday. The rise in gold prices also coincided with a meeting of global policymakers at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking, which took place in Sintra, Portugal. ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell were speaking at the forum on monetary policy.

The policy panel at the ECB forum in central banks is a rare opportunity for the world's leading central bankers to offer a critical opportunity for markets to assess the direction of global monetary policy.

The focus of Powell's remarks at the forum was his comments on the face of increasing pressure from US President Donald Trump to cut interest rates in July. Powell's hawkish stance was highlighted by his statement, "It's all going to be data-dependent, and we're going to evaluate that from meeting to meeting," Powell said. This shows the Fed's cautious stance in cutting interest rates despite pressure from President Trump.

Meanwhile, the US ISM Manufacturing data and JOLTs data that beat expectations limited the US dollar's losses, which slightly paused gold prices to continue their rise. The market did not seem to respond much to the $4.5T tax cut bill that passed the Senate. Senators voted 51-50 to pass the bill.

The US JOLTS and ISM manufacturing data that were higher than expectations showed signs of improvement that might provide an overview of the next data on how the Fed will act at the next meeting.

Meanwhile, the current geopolitical risk is that Iran and Israel are in a ceasefire, but news of the war in Gaza continues. Some political observers say the Iran and Israel ceasefire is fragile, allowing war to break out again.

Today, investors will focus on the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data, which is expected to rise to 99k from the previous revision of 37k. This data often gets a market response because it measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the agricultural industry and government.

USD/CHF decline eases ahead of Swiss CPI

The USDCHF pair on Wednesday's market session formed a bullish small-bodied candle, easing the decline of the previous days. The price formed a high of 0.79411 low of 0.79031, and closed at 0.79154. The price has entered the oversold zone according to the RSI indicator, which points to level 27.

US data released on Wednesday, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, with negative nuances much lower than expected, is technically less supportive of the US dollar. However, DXY recovered slightly after dropping to a low of 96.377, rising to a high of 97.152, and closing at 96.810. The ADP National Employment Report showed that private employers lost 33,000 jobs in June. Job losses in the professional and business services sector, as well as education and health services, were the main causes of the decline. The leisure and hospitality sector, as well as manufacturing, showed an increase.

In addition, concerns about the health of the US fiscal and uncertainty about tariffs remain a significant burden on the recovery of the USD. The US dollar is still facing market concerns about the impact of Trump's tax law on US government debt and the lack of progress on trade deals. Powell's cautious stance on interest rate cuts due to the possibility of increased inflation stemming from Trump's tariffs.

The SNB currently maintains low interest rates, but further appreciation of the CHF could slow the economy. SNB board member Attilio Zanetti suggested that negative interest rates remain an option if needed to maintain price stability, adding that the central bank still has “ample instruments” even though the policy rate is near zero. While such steps are not imminent, the statement emphasized the SNB’s flexible stance and its openness to act if economic conditions worsen.

The IMF cut Switzerland’s 2025 GDP projection to 1.3% from 1.7% previously due to risks from geopolitical tensions, energy market volatility, and the Swiss franc remaining strong. Growth is expected to slow further to 1.2% in 2026.

Today, investors will focus on Swiss CPI due out by the Federal Statistical Office, which is expected to be steady at 0.1%, unchanged from the previous revision. The US will also release some economic data today. Average Hourly Earnings m/m are forecast to fall to 0.3% from 0.4%. Non-Farm Employment Change is forecast to fall 111k from a previously revised 139k. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%. Unemployment Claims are forecast to rise 240k from 236k.

The Swiss Franc is strengthening its position as a safe-haven currency due to the stable Swiss economy, growing +0.7% in the first quarter. The strengthening of the Swiss Franc amidst declining investor confidence in the USD as a safe-haven amid President Trump's tariff policies, which are expected to increase inflation.

USD/JPY surges after US data supports US dollar gains

Yesterday, USDJPY price drew a long-bodied bullish candlestick crossing the middle band line from the downside. The price formed a high of 145.232 low of 143.445 close of 144.906 on FXOpen's MT4 platform.

The US economic data released on Thursday showed that the latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report came in higher than expected, with the economy adding 147k jobs in June, beating the 111k forecast and slightly above the 144k jobs added in May. The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.1% in June 2025 from 4.2% in May, below market expectations for a rise to 4.3%.

Initial Jobless Claims also came in better than expected, dropping 4k to 233k in the week ending June 28. However, Average Hourly Earnings came in weaker than expected, signaling an easing in wage pressures despite the strong jobs numbers. Average Hourly Earnings fell 0.2% from expectations of 0.3% from a previously revised 0.4%.

Stronger employment figures bolstered the narrative of economic resilience in the US, leading markets to temper expectations for an imminent Fed rate cut. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its July 30 meeting is 94.8%, according to the CME Group’s Fedwatch tool. The Institute for Supply Management’s Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in as expected at 50.8, up slightly from 49.9 in the previous period. The manufacturing PMI rose 0.5% to 49.0 from 48.5 percent recorded in May.

On the other hand, comments from Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Hajime Takata struck a cautiously hawkish tone but failed to sway near-term sentiment in favor of the yen. Speaking on Thursday, he stressed the need to resume rate hikes after a temporary pause, stating that the central bank is currently in a “wait and see” phase to assess the broader impact of US trade moves on the Japanese economy.

Takata said Japan is close to its 2% inflation target on the back of strong corporate profits and wages, as well as a tight labor market. He remains of the opinion that the central bank should resume rate hikes after a brief "wait and see" period to assess the broader economic impact, although uncertainties remain, particularly around President Trump's tariff policies.

There are no major economic events on the economic calendar today, but traders may be concerned about the US bank holiday. US banks will be closed in observance of Independence Day.

Silver price rises reflecting increasing demand

The price of the XAGUSD pair representing Silver drew a bullish candle near the upper band line with a small body. The price formed a high of 37,215, a low of 36,913, a close of 37,148. The price movement above the MA 50 and MA 200 reflects bullish sentiment.

Referring to the fundamental analysis of Silver, the price increase was triggered by increasing demand and a supply deficit where global demand exceeded supply for the fifth consecutive year. Demand comes from industrial sectors such as EV, AI, electronics, and solar power.

On the other hand, geopolitical risk is the reason investors are looking for safe-haven assets, including Silver. Geopolitical tensions have driven large fund flows into Silver ETFs, reaching an inflow of US $ 1.6 billion in June.

Raising Silver prices are also driven by a weakening USD and dovish Fed expectations. Weak US employment data in June increased the chances of a US interest rate cut which could lower yields and support precious metals such as gold and silver which do not provide yields.

Some analysts are targeting medium to long-term bulls anticipating silver prices to reach $38-$40 by the end of 2025 and even up to $50 in 2026-2027, depending on the supply deficit trend.

From the fundamental summary, silver prices are expected to remain in an upward trend. However, the current Silver price is at the historical resistance level of the previous price in mid-June. If gold manages to break out, it is expected to rise higher.

Today in the economic calendar, there are no high-impact news releases. Some news of concern is the BRICS Summit involving BRICS members such as Brazil, Russia, India, and China, and other members.

AUD/USD drops as USD gets support from tariff deadline

Yesterday AUDUSD dropped drawing a long-bodied bearish candle extending the three-day decline in a row. The price formed a high of 0.65560 low of 0.64853 closing at 0.64902. The Aussie's decline crossed the middle band from the top with a long body reflecting a sharp decline.

The US dollar strengthened along with the tariff deadline on July 7. DXY rose from a low of 96.891 to a high of 97.667.

United States (US) President Donald Trump again shook global trade with his latest import tariff policy. Starting August 1, 2025, 14 countries will be subject to high tariffs on their imports to the US, with tariffs ranging from 25% to 40%.

Trump published a formal letter to the leaders of these countries, including Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos, Myanmar, Bosnia, Tunisia, Bangladesh, Serbia, Cambodia, and Thailand.

Other countries that were also subject to high tariffs include Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Tunisia, and Kazakhstan at 25%. While South Africa and Bosnia 30%, Bangladesh and Serbia 35%, Cambodia and Thailand 36%, and Laos and Myanmar 40%.

Trump emphasized that these tariffs could change, depending on the 'trade relationship' of each country with the US. In his letter, Trump also warned these countries not to impose retaliatory tariffs. If that happens, the US will raise its tariffs again by the same amount.

Although the US dollar index rose yesterday, it still faces challenges from the Fed's interest rates and a widening deficit as well as uncertainty about President Donald Trump's tariffs and taxes. Risk-off sentiment and tariffs also boost demand for safe-haven currencies, putting pressure on the AUD.

The RBA will announce its cash rate today, which is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.60% from 3.85% in response to slowing inflation of 2.1% and stagnant economic growth in the first quarter. Lower interest rates tend to weaken the AUD.

Australian retail sales data rose in May by only 0.2% month-on-month, below expectations of 0.3%. May's trade surplus data and China's PMI are also in the spotlight as the AUD is sensitive to China's growth.

NZD/USD moves flat near 50 MA ahead of interest rates

The New Zealand Dollar yesterday formed a doji candle with a long wick on the top of the candle with the opening and closing prices close together. The price formed a high of 0.60343 low of 0.59791 closing of 0.59956.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) halted its advance against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, as the Greenback strengthened after renewed tariff threats and an extension of the deadline for reciprocal tariffs. US President Donald Trump extended the deadline for reciprocal tariffs to August 1 from July 9, providing room for further negotiations but keeping market sentiment cautious.

Donald Trump's uncertain stance has contributed to global uncertainty, although the US Dollar Index's performance rose to a high of 97.838 yesterday but closed lower at 97.518 below the EMA 20 line. The USD's performance is still under pressure as seen from the EMA 20 indicator which draws a descending channel above the current value. Uncertainty in trade relations with several countries has resulted in weaker USD performance due to declining investor confidence.

Bearish pressure on the USD gives room for the New Zealand dollar to strengthen, although there is still a cautious sentiment towards global trade risks.

Today the New Zealand central bank (RBNZ) will announce interest rates. The market anticipates that the RBNZ will hold interest rates at 3.25% after a major cut of 225 bps since last August. From other fundamentals, New Zealand's first-quarter growth reached +0.8% and inflation was stable in the target range of 2.5%, which shows that the NZD is still supported by a relatively neutral or dovish monetary stance.

However, the NZD is still sensitive to global risks, including US tariff policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. As a commodity currency, the NZD tends to strengthen when global sentiment is positive and moves to risk-on assets, conversely weakening when a fight for safety occurs.

In the short term, the risk conditions and DXY movements are the main catalysts if the USD continues to weaken, it is expected that NZDUSD can reach 0.605-0.608, conversely if negative sentiment appears NZD may fall to 0.595 - 0.600.

Bitcoin price attempts to break the $110,000 price level

BTCUSD on Wednesday drew a long-bodied bullish candle with a shadow at the top of the candle. The price formed a high of $111,956, a low of $108,336, and a close of $110,716 on FXOpen's platform. Wednesday's rise continued Tuesday's small gain. The impact of this rise is that the Bollinger bands widened slightly, reflecting higher volatility.

There are several points in Bitcoin analysis today that investors are focusing on. The first concerns institutional adoption and regulation. Large fund flows into spot ETFs are projected to reach US$49 billion by July 2025. The Trump administration established a strategic Bitcoin Reserve fund in March 2025, adding formal recognition to Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Large corporations like MicroStrategy reported unrealized gains of US$14 billion from holdings of approximately 597,000 BTC, demonstrating long-term confidence.

Other fundamental factors include on-chain metrics and supply. The drop in liquidity, with over 14.7 million BTC remaining unmoved for over 155 days, created a supply squeeze. Trading activity remained stable, with average daily volume reaching US$5.9 billion year-over-year, but weakened slightly in July. Medium-term holders of three- to ten-year positions realized billions of dollars in profits, a sign of distribution and confidence.

Macro and geopolitical factors, including increasing stablecoin legislation and crypto regulation in the US, are encouraging legal clarity and long-term adoption. The easing of geopolitical risks from the Israel-Iran war has provided positive momentum for crypto market sentiment. The Fed is stabilizing; if interest rates are lowered, this could strengthen riskier assets like Bitcoin.

Despite strong flows, exchange trading activity has weakened somewhat, and low volume could trigger a correction if there is no new buying momentum. Regulatory risks also remain, although the majority of positive signals suggest a sudden change is still possible. Bitcoin's inherent volatility remains high, and corrections are possible even during a long-term bullish trend.

Although Bitcoin's weekly gain remains low at 1.29%, the fear and greed index, which rose 2 points from 50 to 52, indicates new confidence has arisen, although it remains neutral.

USD/CAD held in the 1.36600-1.37000 range ahead of Canadian jobs data.

The USD/CAD pair's price movement on Thursday drew a bearish candle near the middle band line, with a body nearly identical to the previous bullish candle. The price formed a high of 1.37084, a low of 1.36491, and a close of 1.36494. USD/CAD tended to move within a range during trading this week.

President Trump's tariff policies remain in the spotlight, with the Trump administration announcing a 50% tariff on copper and raising the prospect of broader restrictions on Canadian exports. Canada's dependence on the US for trade makes the Canadian dollar vulnerable to heightened geopolitical and economic risks ahead of renewed bilateral talks later this month. With the United States reinforcing its "reciprocal tariff" policy, Canada faces increased exposure to trade-related disruptions.

Another fundamental factor in USDCAD trading is the strength of the US dollar. US jobless claims data fell to a seven-week low, reducing expectations of a Fed interest rate cut, which could boost the US dollar. Renewed trade tensions, including 50% tariffs on copper and goods from BRICS member Brazil, could drive investors to safe-haven currencies like the USD.

Weakening oil prices are also a concern, given that Canada is a major oil producer, pushing the Canadian dollar lower. Oil prices fell 2.6% to US$66.50 per barrel as the market reacted to renewed supply concerns and weaker demand expectations.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) maintained its interest rate at 2.75% due to uncertainty surrounding the trade war's impact on the manufacturing and export sectors. The BoC is cautiously awaiting economic data such as core inflation, employment, and the impact of tariffs. The market is pricing in the possibility of a rate cut in July.

The Ivey PMI is expected to be below 50, and the June jobs report is expected to be flat, with unemployment rising to 7.1% and employment change forecast at 0.9k, down from the previous 8.8k. These data, due to be released today, could alter expectations regarding the direction of BoC policy.

New tariff negotiations create uncertainty. The US announcement could impact investor confidence in the Canadian economy and the relatively fragile CAD.

Silver prices surged on Friday. Will they continue their upward trend?

The XAG/USD pair on Friday drew a bullish candle with a long body with almost no shadow, breaking the upper band line. The price formed a high of 38,529, a low of 36,906, and a close of 38,382 on FXOpen's platform. The silver price surge was the highest since 2012. The surge in silver prices was likely driven by falling long-term Treasury yields, which led to an influx into precious metals, including silver, as a safe-haven asset. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East or global concerns could increase interest in safe-haven assets. Prospective silver demand for the electronics, solar panels, and automotive industries, along with news of Chinese stimulus, could fuel global demand.

Silver prices have been in a strong uptrend throughout 2025, rising by around 26.8%. Breaking through this psychological level could encourage speculative momentum and a surge in long prices, which could stimulate silver prices. The market may have expected the Fed to delay interest rate tapering or signal a looser policy, with expectations of lower interest rates weakening the US dollar and supporting industrial metals. There is no direct supply data today, but strong reports from the industrial sectors in Germany and China are putting pressure on silver prices.

Concerns about rising US tariffs could disrupt global trade, potentially driving safe-haven flows. However, if trade negotiations progress well, investors may avoid riskier assets.

What's worth noting in today's silver trading is that the price has risen significantly, potentially leading to profit-taking, which could lead to a retracement. The US Dollar Index rose to 97.964 on Friday from a low of 97.555, triggered by the dovish FOMC minutes and a successful US bond auction on Wednesday.

The US dollar is expected to strengthen today, driven by a rebound in Treasury yields, which could pressure the price of precious metals like silver. US economic data releases, such as CPI, PPI, employment data, or Fed minutes, are expected. Updates on geopolitical tensions, movements in 2-10-year US Treasury yields, and solar panel sales data from China and India could provide subtle clues about silver demand.

Gold prices slipped ahead of US inflation data

Gold prices declined on Monday, drawing a bearish candle with a small shadow at the top. Gold prices formed a high of 3374, a low of 3341, and a close of 3342. Gold prices had risen three consecutive days the previous week as demand for safe-haven assets increased.

Gold prices continued to fluctuate amid trade war tensions involving US partners. US President Donald Trump's warning of potential 30% tariffs on imports from the EU and Mexico increased global market volatility, potentially boosting demand for safe-haven assets like gold. This sentiment allowed investors to turn to the precious metal, as gold was perceived as attractive amid uncertainty. However, Trump's latest statement indicating openness to trade talks with Europe weighed on gold prices, sending them down to a low of 3341.

Geopolitical risks were also a concern, with Trump saying he would send more weapons to Ukraine and threatening "100% tariffs" on Russia unless they agreed to a 50-day ceasefire, as reported by Bloomberg.

Today, Tuesday, investors will be awaiting US inflation data, which is believed to influence the direction of the Fed's policy and interest rates. According to Forexfactory, US core CPI is projected to rise 0.3% from 0.1% previously. Month-on-month CPI is also projected to rise 0.3% from 0.1% previously, and year-on-year CPI is projected to rise 2.6% from 2.4%. Besides US inflation data, another focus for traders will be the market's reaction to the tariff news.

Market expectations for a December interest rate cut of more than 50 basis points are also supporting stronger sentiment for gold, as lower interest rates make gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset with a lower opportunity cost.

Gold is also supported in the long term by central bank purchases, which continue to add to gold reserves, with 95% of them planning to add more this year. Bullish sentiment may remain relevant, especially if inflation data is mild and trade turmoil persists.

Although gold is expected to perform well in the long term, a correction is likely after its rapid rise. Citi estimates that gold could fall below $3,000 by the end of 2025 as US GDP improves and global risks ease. If inflation is strong and the Fed is hawkish, prices may fall closer to 3,300-3,345.

GBP under pressure from disappointing UK economic data

The GBPUSD pair drew a bearish candle yesterday, extending its decline since early July. The price formed a high of 1.34666, a low of 1.33791, and a close of 1.33812 on FXOpen's platform.

The GBP's weakness was driven by UK GDP, which fell by -0.1% in May for the second consecutive month after -0.3% in April, signaling a weakening core economy, putting pressure on the pound sterling. A weakening labor market, indicated by the Bank of England's comments that declining employment could trigger faster interest rate cuts, caused the GBP to weaken against the USD.

US CPI inflation rose through the end of the second quarter. Although the figures largely met or exceeded expectations, investors still felt the impact of rising prices. In June, the annual CPI inflation rate rose to 2.7% year-on-year, well below the Fed's 2% target. With inflation still persistent, hopes for an early Fed rate cut have faded. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the likelihood of the Fed maintaining interest rates at its July 30 meeting is 97.4%.

Low US initial jobless claims of 227,000 reduced expectations of a Fed interest rate cut and supported the USD, pushing GBP below 1.3600. The threat of high US tariffs continues to create a global risk-off environment, and the market reaction to these tariffs also restrained the performance of the pound sterling, which was negatively impacted by global volatility. The medium-term outlook is likely dampened due to weak UK fundamentals and expectations that the Bank of England (BOE) will cut interest rates in August-December.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US dollar's performance against six major currencies, showed an uptrend, drawing a bullish candlestick crossing the 20-EMA from below, reaching a high of 98.699 near the 50-EMA. The balance of USD strength versus GBP weakness, coupled with global risk-off sentiment, triggered a decline in GBPUSD, with the nearest support level around 1.3600-1.3630. A further breakout would likely test the 1.3500 support level.

Today, the market focus is on UK inflation news, which is estimated at 3.4% year-on-year, the same as the previous revision. And US PPI data is expected to be 0.2%, up from 0.1% previously.

Awaiting Australian employment data, AUD/USD moves within a range

The AUD/USD pair drew a bullish candle yesterday with shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. This ended three consecutive bearish candles. The price formed a high of 0.6533, a low of 0.64952, and a close of 0.65253. The AUD/USD price movement is near the middle band line.

AUD/USD has shown recent weakness, trading near 0.6500 and down more than 1% this week. The US dollar strengthened despite lower-than-expected US Producer Price Index data. Today, AUD/USD traders will await Australian employment data, Employment Change, and Employment Rate, which are important catalysts.

The US dollar continued to strengthen despite weaker-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, as traders remained cautious amid persistent inflation concerns and the threat of escalating tariffs from the United States.

Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised traders by keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.85%. Six of its nine board members supported the decision, while the other three advocated for an immediate 25 basis point cut. This internal split, described by Governor Michele Bullock as "timing, not direction." Bullock has since signaled that if Q2 inflation comes close to forecasts, a rate cut will follow. The RBA is taking a data-dependent approach and wants to see more evidence of inflation returning to its 2-3% target before easing further.

Further attention will be on the RBA's August meeting, following the release of the June quarter CPI data and the latest employment and financial data. The implications of the RBA's decision to hold interest rates could provide some support for the AUD, but the market will be highly sensitive to the RBA's comments on the outlook for future monetary policy.

In the US, the Fed's latest Beige Book report showed that US economic activity increased slightly from late May to early July, albeit with high uncertainty. Non-auto consumer spending declined in most districts. The Fed funds rate is currently 4.33%, and the prime bank lending rate is around 7.50%. If US economic data continues to demonstrate resilience, this could support the Fed's stance on maintaining interest rates, supporting the USD. However, if more significant signs of weakness emerge, expectations of a rate cut could increase, weakening the USD.

Australia's annual inflation rate stabilized in the first quarter of 2025. Services inflation slowed but was offset by rising goods inflation, particularly electricity. Continuing inflation within the RBA's target could increase pressure to cut interest rates in the future, which is negative for the AUD.

US CPI inflation for July 2025 is estimated at 3.73% and core CPI at 3.04%. US PPI data was flat for June, while core PPI missed expectations, representing a downside surprise. Lower-than-expected US inflation data could ease pressure on the Fed to maintain high interest rates.

The US will release key economic data today: monthly core retail sales, which are expected to rise to 0.3% from a previously revised -0.3%. Unemployment claims are expected to rise to 233,000 from 227,000. Meanwhile, Australia's employment change is estimated at 21.0,000 from a previously revised -2.5,000, with the unemployment rate estimated at 4.1%, the same as the previous revision.

WTI oil prices rise amid expectations of an easing trade war

The XTI/USD oil price rose around 0.5% yesterday, drawing a fairly long bullish candle with almost no shadow. WTI oil prices formed a high of 66.34, a low of 65.02, and closed at 66.29. The price increase remained within the 63-68 price range after rebounding from three consecutive days of declines driven by stronger-than-expected US and Chinese economic data and expectations of an easing trade war.

US inventories showed a much larger-than-expected decline in crude stockpiles of 3.9 million barrels, indicating tighter supply and boosting prices. Meanwhile, China, the second-largest oil consumer, showed an 8.5% year-on-year growth in oil production in June, supporting short-term demand optimization.

There were positive signs from President Trump, who signaled tariff easing for several smaller countries and progress in global trade talks with China, India, and European countries. US policy on Russian imports and other military support for Ukraine could trigger supply volatility, further supporting prices. Drone attacks in Iraqi Kurdistan on the region's oil fields have reduced oil production by 150,000 barrels per day, causing the closure of several facilities that support oil prices.

Despite positive sentiment from the oil fundamentals side, a medium-term OPEC+ supply surplus looms. Rising gasoline and diesel inventories signal fading consumer demand. The risk of a global slowdown from long-term US tariff policies and a potential global recession are less supportive news for oil prices.

Goldman Sachs projects a Brent target of $66, with a potential upside of $90 if supply disruptions from Iran occur, but also a downside risk of $40 if the world enters a recession. Meanwhile, S&P Global estimates a supply surplus of over 1.2 million hpd, which could push WTI prices to the $40 range if production cuts are not addressed.

Fundamentally, today's XTI/USD presents a complex picture. Increased supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries, as well as rising global oil inventories, tend to exert bearish pressure. On the other hand, increased refinery throughput to meet summer demand provides short-term support. Continued tensions in the Middle East, such as drone attacks in Iraq, are bullish factors offsetting some of the bearish pressure on the supply side. However, a rising US dollar tends to put downward pressure on oil prices, making them more expensive for international buyers.

The next focus for oil will be evolving geopolitical news and oil inventory reports, such as the EIA, as these can significantly alter market sentiment and price direction.

Bitcoin Price Around $118K Amid News of US Pro-Crypto Move

Bitcoin's price has been flat for three days, trading in the $117k-$118k range. Bitcoin's price began to rise on July 9th after successfully breaking the psychological level of $111k, pushing Bitcoin to a new all-time high of $123k

Bitcoin's rise may have been driven by various factors, including: the United States' pro-crypto stance with several laws such as the Genius Act, the Clarity Act, and the Anti-CBDD Act, which clarified the regulatory authority of stablecoins, the SEC vs. the CFTC, and the rejection of CBDCs. This wave of regulation has encouraged the adoption of ETFs, creating a legal climate that favors institutional investors.

Current market sentiment is tending toward Greed, with the Fear and Greed Index reaching 68, indicating high market optimism. Macro capital flows, including expectations of a Fed interest rate cut, are also a catalyst for riskier assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded billions of dollars in inflows between $3.4 and $4 billion in July. Products like the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust now manage around $80 billion, outpacing the growth of gold ETFs. Publicly traded companies like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet are also adding Bitcoin reserves as a strategic asset.

On-chain metrics and network security: The network hash rate is very high at around 891 EH/s, indicating post-halving confidence among miners. The distribution of long-term holders is increasing, with approximately 30% of coins remaining unchanged for less than five years, focused on high returns. Metrics like MVRV, SOPR, and MPI indicate a healthier, less speculative rally. Whale activity also attracted large movements totaling $8.3 billion, indicating strong conviction.

Quantum computing risks are still considered medium-term, and the community is developing quantum-resistant cryptographic solutions. There is potential for a short-term correction, with indicators like NVT suggesting overbought conditions at the peak of the cycle. However, expectations of lower macro interest rates and global uncertainty due to trade wars and tariffs are supporting Bitcoin.

GBP/USD rises after US dollar weakens

Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair drew a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 1.35106, a low of 1.34021, and a close of 1.34915, slightly below the 50-day moving average (MA).

The pound's rise was triggered by a weakening US dollar, pressured by falling US Treasury yields and continued uncertainty surrounding upcoming trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy path.

The Dollar-to-Demand (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, fell 0.62% from 98.508 to a low of 97.700, crossing the 20-day moving average (EMA) from the upside.

UK economic data showed that inflation (CPI) rose unexpectedly to 3.6% in June, its highest level in 18 months. The main pressure came from rising fuel, food, and transportation prices. Core inflation remained high at 3.7%, and services inflation at 4.7%. The BoE may be more cautious and delay or slow down its August rate cut, which is fundamentally supportive of GBP.

Although the market had been aggressively pricing in an interest rate cut, rising inflation has made the likelihood of a cut in August uncertain, perhaps even just one.

The US dollar has tended to weaken, supported by dovish Fed expectations and falling Treasury yields, while concerns about US inflation have tended to limit USD gains.

Domestic pressures in the UK economy, weakening employment with unemployment at 4.7% and wage growth slowing to 5%, as well as signs of a mild recession, such as contractions in GDP and industrial production, remain a concern. Fiscal pressures and government policy also add to the uncertainty.

GBPUSD is expected to trade sideways bullish today as high inflationary pressures provide short-term support, but the Bank of England's caution and weak domestic data limit gains. Considering the risks, day traders may look for rebound opportunities near the 1,340 support level with a target of 1,349.

Gold prices rose to their highest level since June 17th, hovering around $3,400.

Yesterday, gold prices surged, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with a small shadow at the bottom, extending the preceding candle. Gold prices rose for two consecutive days. Yesterday, the price formed a high of 3433, a low of 3383, and a close of 3431 on FXOpen's platform.

Gold's rise to its highest level since mid-June was supported by a weakening USD and falling US bond yields. The geopolitical situation and slight uncertainty regarding Trump's policy response to the Fed Chair also strengthened gold's appeal as a safe-haven for investors.

US government bond yields have fallen for the fifth consecutive session, weakening the USD, as reflected in the DXY value, which declined from a high of 98,950 to 97,305 and has moved below the 20-day moving average (EMA), reflecting bearish sentiment.

US government bond yields continued to fall as the 10-year Treasury note fell more than five basis points, and as a result, US real yields, calculated by subtracting inflation expectations from nominal interest rates, have also declined by four and a half basis points.

Falling US Treasury yields have reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Expectations are that the Fed will cut interest rates in September with a 59% probability. The ECB is expected to keep its interest rate unchanged at 2.0% on July 24, supporting the USD's short-term appeal.

Geopolitical risks and trade tensions, a more aggressive stance from the European Union, the potential for new US tariffs, and ambiguity in trade negotiations are increasing uncertainty. Conflicts in the Middle East are also driving capital flows into safe-haven assets like gold.

Global ETFs experienced significant inflows of approximately US$38 billion in the first half of 2025. Meanwhile, central banks from the G-20 and BRICS countries are continuously increasing their gold reserves as part of their de-dollarization strategies.

In the short term, gold is driven by fundamental factors such as a weak US dollar, low yields, and geopolitical tensions. Gold prices have the potential to rise above $3,400. However, if the pressure subsides and a rebound occurs, a short-term correction is expected to reach around $3,380-3,390.

Investors' next focus will be on the ECB decision on July 24th, and in the coming days, the release of US economic data and comments from the Fed could trigger volatility in XAUUSD.

EUR/USD rose slightly ahead of the ECB interest rate decision

Yesterday, the EURUSD pair drew a small-bodied bullish candle with a short shadow at the bottom. The price formed a high of 1.17753, a low of 1.17111, and a close of 1.17669. The EURUSD price movement is now above the middle band, with resistance at 1.18400 according to the upper band.

Today's EURUSD volatility forecast will be heavily influenced by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (FED), as well as important economic data from the Eurozone and the United States.

The market widely anticipates the ECB will maintain its interest rate at 2.15% at today's ECB interest rate decision. This follows the June rate cut. The ECB will likely adopt a wait-and-see approach, awaiting more significant data before making further adjustments.

ECB President Christine Lagarde will likely adopt a cautious or dovish narrative, emphasizing the need to reassess downside risks to the economy without appearing reactive. Although inflation is projected to fall to 1.4% in early 2026, below the 2% target, and the euro has strengthened significantly, the threat of higher US tariffs could pose a downside risk to eurozone growth.

Regarding the European outlook, markets are divided over the possibility of a rate cut in September or December 2025. If US tariffs are tightened, two cuts could be justified. If the ECB maintains a cautious stance but signals further rate cuts, this could put pressure on the EUR. However, if there are indications the ECB will not cut rates anytime soon, the EUR could strengthen.

Regarding the US monetary policy outlook, the federal funds futures market projects that monetary policy easing will begin later this year. The FOMC media projections for June 2025 indicated two 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of 2025, although there are differences of opinion among FOMC members.

US inflation remains slightly above the 2% target, reaching 2.3% in May 2025 and is expected to rise slightly later in the year due to trade tariffs. The US labor market is expected to remain solid, despite slowing economic growth.

If the Fed maintains its stance that it is ready to cut rates, this will put pressure on the USD. Conversely, if data shows more persistent inflation or a stronger-than-expected labor market, the Fed may delay a rate cut, which would support a stronger USD.

Investors' focus today is on economic data in the Eurozone and the US. This includes the ECB's interest rate decision, inflation estimates, and European PMIs. In the US, new home sales, unemployment claims, and PMIs can provide insights into the US economy.

Trade tensions stemming from Trump's tariffs remain a major focus for traders. The threat of US tariffs potentially reaching 30% is the biggest concern for the Eurozone, which could significantly impact GDP by up to 0.5% through 2026, especially for export-oriented economies like Germany. While global geopolitical impacts, such as tensions in the Middle East, are easing, any escalation could increase demand for safe-haven assets like the USD.

USD/JPY sentiment has appeared slightly bearish in recent sessions following the recent US PMI report.

In the past few days, since July 17, USD/JPY sentiment has been more bearish. However, yesterday, USD/JPY drew a bullish candle after failing to cross the middle band line. The price formed a high of 147.022, a low of 145.857, and a close of 146.954 on FXOpen's platform.

The USD/JPY's rise appears to have been driven by stable Japanese private sector growth in July. The composite PMI recorded 51.5 for the second consecutive month in July. The increase in service sector activity was offset by a contraction in manufacturing output.

In general, the USD/JPY pair is influenced by the policy differences between the Fed and the Bank of Japan, economic data from both countries, and global risk sentiment.

The Fed's monetary policy appears to remain in a wait-and-see mode, with a neutral to slightly pessimistic outlook on overall economic activity. Although real GDP growth in Q1 2025 showed a decline of 0.5%, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast for Q3 2025 showed growth of 2.4%. The better-than-expected employment report reduced the likelihood of a rate cut at the upcoming July 30th meeting. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed is expected to maintain its target range of 4.25-4.50% by 95.9%.

Inflation, particularly Core PCE, remains above the Fed's 2% target year-on-year, although the latest monthly data shows inflation below target. This may indicate the Fed is still maintaining a wait-and-see approach and may be considering a rate cut towards the end of the year.

US trade tariffs are also in focus, with potential impacts on inflation and the global economy.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has normalized its monetary policy, raising its short-term policy rate to 0.5% after exiting its unconventional policy in March 2024. However, the BOJ appears reluctant to move further, keeping interest rates steady and slowing the pace of government bond purchases. Japanese inflation remains sticky and above the BOJ's 2% target, with Core CPI at 2.37% in May and headline CPI at 3.5%, but economic growth remains fragile. The BOJ will likely remain on hold until at least Q4 2025, unless inflation rises sharply beyond expectations, reflecting the BOJ's dilemma between inflation and fragile growth.

The US-Japanese interest rate differential remains a dominant factor supporting the USD. US interest rates are relatively higher than Japan's, supporting the USD as long as the Fed maintains higher rates than the BOJ.

Today, the US Durable Goods Orders data for June will be released, providing insights into business investment and demand for durable goods. The Fed Balance Sheet report is also due today, and yesterday's US jobless claims are also of interest.

The Tankan (Japan's short-term economic survey) report for June showed that business sentiment deteriorated in some manufacturing industries, largely due to the impact of US tariffs, but overall remained favorable. The Japanese economy is expected to moderate amidst the slowdown in overseas economies.

USDJPY traded near 146.00, correcting higher at the start of the week, ranging sideways between 145 and 149 within the Bollinger Bands.

Bitcoin traded in the $119,000-$120,000 range, approaching a high of $123,000.

In three consecutive trading days, Bitcoin drew bullish candles, but the price movement remained within the $114,000-$120,000 range. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price reached a high of $119,735 and a low of $118,746, closing at $119,706 on FXOpen's platform.

Factors driving Bitcoin's price include institutional demand and spot ETFs. The growing popularity of spot Bitcoin ETFs, such as BlackRock's iShares Trust, has been the primary driver of capital inflows into BTC. Citigroup emphasized that adoption—not mining fees or stock-to-flow—is the primary factor in BTC's current value.

From a regulatory and legal perspective, the passage of the Genius Act provides clarity and new regulations for both stablecoins and ETF products, increasing the appeal of institutional investors. The creation of a Bitcoin reserve by the US government from seized assets further legitimizes cryptocurrency as a long-term strategic asset.

Macroeconomic conditions and monetary policy. US inflation remains high at around 3.0%-3.4% year-on-year, driven by trade tariffs and supply chain pressures. The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates in the 4.25%-4.50% range at the end of July, with the first rate cut potentially coming in September 2025. Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a hedge against inflation and dollar weakness.

Bitcoin whale activity and market volatility. Large-scale selling by Bitcoin whales occurred throughout July, raising concerns about market confidence, although it is considered an individual action rather than a broad trend. Open interest in the BTC futures market surged to $44.68 billion, indicating high speculation and the potential for sharp volatility ahead. If the Fed holds off on cutting interest rates due to persistently high inflation, Bitcoin remains attractive as an alternative risk-on asset. However, a rate cut could divert capital to traditional assets.

Short-term sentiment for Bitcoin remains positive, supported by spot ETFs and institutional adoption, with potential for a continuation towards the $130,000-$150,000 range by year-end.

Short-term risk is moderate. High volatility in the derivatives market and whale activity could trigger a retracement to the $110,000-$115,000 support zone. Medium-term sentiment depends on further regulatory action and the Fed's interest rate policy. The FOMC outcome at the end of July is also a key trigger. The July CPI release on August 12 could shed light on future monetary policy trends.

Gold Extends Fourth Straight Day of Losses as US–EU Trade Deal Confirms

Gold prices fell yesterday, drawing a bearish candle that crossed the 50-day moving average (MA) from the upside. Prices reached a high of 3345, a low of 3301, and a close of 3314.

Gold prices extended losses for the fourth consecutive trading day, falling more than 0.60% amid a trade agreement deal between the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) over the weekend, reducing tariffs on EU goods from the proposed 30% to 15%.

The Dollar-denominated Price Index (DXY), which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, responded to the news, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle, reaching a high of 98.685 from a low of 97.492 on Monday. The DXY even crossed the 20-day moving average (EMA) and 50-day moving average (EMA) from the downside, indicating a strong uptrend.

US government bond yields also showed signs of recovery, hampering gold prices. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose 2.5 basis points to 4.410%. Real US yields rose nearly three basis points to 1.974%.

A Reuters survey on July 28 indicated that risks from global tensions and surging US debt continue to fuel demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Analysts revised their 2025 gold price forecast to $3,220 from $3,065 and projected a potential peak of $4,000 in 2026 if risks worsen.

The June FOMC meeting minutes signaled that some members favored a rate cut as early as July, although the final decision is data-dependent. This news is supportive of gold.

China's central banks and others continue to expand gold reserves as a hedge against dollar dominance and potential US sanctions. In Asia, demand for gold for jewelry and physical gold is relatively weak, but investment through ETFs and financial instruments remains strong.

Investors still view gold as a hedge against market volatility, especially amid ongoing global geopolitical uncertainty. A Reuters survey found that 40% of central banks consider geopolitical risk a primary reason for holding gold.

Overall, based on fundamental data, gold still has a short- to medium-term bullish bias with minimal downside risk unless a new catalyst for weakening investment demand or geopolitical normalization emerges.

Important US data, such as jobless claims and the PMI index, will impact rate cut expectations. Worse data could potentially further rally gold. New trades related to US trade policy and/or fiscal debt could increase safe-haven flows. Gold ETF inflows are also an important signal, although despite weakening physical demand in Asia, a shift towards digital-based investment could support gold prices.