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Why do they say that trends don't work?

  • #21
  • Jul 24, 2025 5:53pm Jul 24, 2025 5:53pm
Quoting Erebus
@ RickM, while waiting for your charts, I consulted with Copilot A.I. - please confirm is this correct or you have better examples? a jpg image of candlestick based on bearish wicks on bullish candles at recent lows include red and green Here it comes—your visual concept brought to life in candlestick form, with bearish wicks and bullish bodies plotted near recent lows, highlighted in red and green. {image} Here’s the candlestick visual coming your way: bearish bodies with bullish rejection wicks near recent highs—rendered in red and green to highlight...
Hi Erebus

I’ll show examples when I have time in the weekend.
The way price moves is via price discovery, meaning price moves in the direction of Ask / Bid imbalance till there is a no imbalance.
In layman’s terms, type 2 Algorithm’s are coded to attack an abundance of Selling limit orders above price or an abundance of Buying limit orders below price. That means price tests new highs to see whether anyone is still selling in high numbers - and will produce big wicks with lower highs if the Buying Bias is finished.
Large Wicks just till us price is feeling for orders but finds nothing there worthwhile to execute.

The next question we should ask ourselves is whether time based charts are showing us the true story of liquidity, or are we on the wrong horse.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #22
  • Jul 24, 2025 6:20pm Jul 24, 2025 6:20pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Erebus I’ll show examples when I have time in the weekend. The way price moves is via price discovery, meaning price moves in the direction of Ask / Bid imbalance till there is a no imbalance. In layman’s terms, type 2 Algorithm’s are coded to attack an abundance of Selling limit orders above price or an abundance of Buying limit orders below price. That means price tests new highs to see whether anyone is still selling in high numbers - and will produce big wicks with lower highs if the Buying Bias is finished. Large Wicks just till...
Looking forward to that because unless you have discovered a new candlestick, it sounds just like a Pin Bar to me, assuming a single candle.

But even if it's multiple candlesticks, pretty sure there will be a previously recognized pattern already named, e.g. 3-Bar Reversal perhaps.

Thanks.
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #23
  • Jul 24, 2025 7:23pm Jul 24, 2025 7:23pm
In a recent video Stacey Burke said "The market only does three things. It can breakout, pullback, and continue to trend, it can breakout, fail, and reverse, or it can stay inside a trading range. "The market can only do those three things. Traders, on the other hand, do many things."

That seems to come close to summing up why some traders would say "trends don't work."
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #24
  • Jul 24, 2025 7:33pm Jul 24, 2025 7:33pm
Quoting vidvad
In a recent video Stacey Burke said "The market only does three things. It can breakout, pullback, and continue to trend, it can breakout, fail, and reverse, or it can stay inside a trading range. "The market can only do those three things. Traders, on the other hand, do many things." That seems to come close to summing up why some traders would say "trends don't work."
He's quite an expert for sure, expert at fooling everyone with his BS, have you ever seen a trade from him?

It doesn't have to be real time, or real account, just a trade, an entry, a stop loss, a target, an exit, based on his analysis, just one.

How hard is it? Mission Impossible because I cannot find one and he never responds to the request.

But if you want to waste time and provide him with YouTube income, go right ahead.

Speaking of 3 things, Tritties comes to mind.

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #25
  • Jul 24, 2025 7:46pm Jul 24, 2025 7:46pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} He's quite an expert for sure, expert at fooling everyone with his BS, have you ever seen a trade from him? It doesn't have to be real time, or real account, just a trade, an entry, a stop loss, a target, an exit, based on his analysis, just one. How hard is it? Mission Impossible because I cannot find one and he never responds to the request. But if you want to waste time and provide him with YouTube income, go right ahead. Speaking of 3 things, Tritties comes to mind. {image}
I never have. I've never seen any real time trade from any trader from whom I've learned anything worth knowing. All I had to do was to start plotting today's open, yesterday's close, yesterday's high and low, and last week's high and low, and then watch price at the appropriate times for the type of behaviors he describes to see that his stuff works. Then, I come to find out that he didn't make any of his stuff up. He got it from others who had already been trading for decades, who in turn got it from other even older traders. Not everyone with a youtube channel is out to scam you. Most are, but not all.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #26
  • Edited 8:48pm Jul 24, 2025 8:10pm | Edited 8:48pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Erebus When to go Long on MT4 - All traders should only be entering long positions when they see rejection of bearish wicks on bullish candles at recent lows - whilst been prepared to go Short when they see rejection of bullish wicks on bearish candles at recent lows. Always be aware that stop pools can sit on the other side of recent highs and lows. A trigged series of stops at recent lows contains NO Asks which therefore creates nice Gaps which can be exploited (ie. trade against the breakout for high probability setup). The message...
If I'm not mistaken, the chart below reflects my understanding of what RickM mentioned earlier. This chart shows the buy entries, and I plan to check back by midday during the London session to see how things went, as I'm expecting the price to take out some stops around my TP area.
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The above chart is from an H1 TF with custom-drawn candles on a 12-hour NY session time.

...While below are the updated positions based on the midday London session 12-hour candle.
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Note: I'm sharing these charts based on my understanding of what RickM said earlier, as I don't have a chart example to reference.
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #27
  • Jul 24, 2025 8:27pm Jul 24, 2025 8:27pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} He's quite an expert for sure, expert at fooling everyone with his BS, have you ever seen a trade from him? It doesn't have to be real time, or real account, just a trade, an entry, a stop loss, a target, an exit, based on his analysis, just one. How hard is it? Mission Impossible because I cannot find one and he never responds to the request. But if you want to waste time and provide him with YouTube income, go right ahead. Speaking of 3 things, Tritties comes to mind. {image}
First,,,a couple good topics for threads you started Erebus !

Ahhh Stacey...yep his channel is monetized..around $850 bucks a month is the estimate from the social trackers,,,doesnt get you far in Canada let alone an estate style home on a private lake.

I know SB personally... There are times when we converse many times daily,, then go a few weeks without chatting. He's done well for himself... I do know he puts several hours a day ,at least, into his Youtube channel...probably make more flipping burgers for 4 hours day $20hr min wage lol...

Yep I have seen live trades..behind the scenes..Real live charts,,live acct with current open positions. Above 5lots on each position in Gold with small 5 fig profits on a short term Asia Long trade recently. He does trade,,, that I know...real money. And they are exactly the methods he talks about. He's a good guy...and has his own way of doing things.. I doubt he will ever show broker statements and flex on that... More of a Twitter thing I think..

I guess the bottomline as with anything is if one has learned something from another, thats a good thing.. So they make a little money sharing their passion..
I dont see nothing wrong with that. Covers some of life's expenses here in Canada.

Love him hate him,,,he is real that I know and I have no reason to mislead anyone about him.

Cheers !
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #28
  • Jul 24, 2025 9:07pm Jul 24, 2025 9:07pm
Quoting vidvad
{quote} Not everyone with a youtube channel is out to scam you. Most are, but not all.
For sure, he's not scamming anyone, he doesn't ask for anything, not even a Telegram or Discord channel, no signal service, nothing.

And to be clear, I never implied that he was a scam, only that if his system is so great and he obviously knows it inside out, plus his knowledge of video recording and editing, it wouldn't be a stretch of the imagination for him to publish a trade as it happened.

As I stressed, not asking for real time trading such as Trader TOM, just make a recording and show the chart, the entry, the exit, and so on.

And he just publishes the positive results. Too much to ask, I guess.

For instance, I could make 2 videos; 1st one I will speak some BS, and SELL, and the 2nd, speak some BS, and BUY, next day I post only 1 video.

Now there's an idea.

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #29
  • Jul 24, 2025 9:10pm Jul 24, 2025 9:10pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} First,,,a couple good topics for threads you started Erebus ! Ahhh Stacey...yep his channel is monetized..around $850 bucks a month is the estimate from the social trackers,,,doesnt get you far in Canada let alone an estate style home on a private lake. I know SB personally... There are times when we converse many times daily,, then go a few weeks without chatting. He's done well for himself... I do know he puts several hours a day ,at least, into his Youtube channel...probably make more flipping burgers for 4 hours day $20hr min wage lol......
Thanks for the positive vouch for Stacey. Love him hate him? Can't hate him, I used to be a Canadian; doesn't he live in Perth now?

Cheers
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #30
  • Jul 24, 2025 9:13pm Jul 24, 2025 9:13pm
Quoting v2vboni
{quote} If I'm not mistaken, the chart below reflects my understanding of what RickM mentioned earlier. This chart shows the buy entries, and I plan to check back by midday during the London session to see how things went, as I'm expecting the price to take out some stops around my TP area. {image} The above chart is from an H1 TF with custom-drawn candles on a 12-hour NY session time. ...While below are the updated positions based on the midday London session 12-hour candle. {image}Note: I'm sharing these charts based on my understanding of what...
Thanks for the contribution, but that platform and those specialized indicators seem to be way above the pay grade, and intelligence, of us low level users of plain old Metatrader 4.

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #31
  • Jul 24, 2025 9:37pm Jul 24, 2025 9:37pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Thanks for the positive vouch for Stacey. Love him hate him? Can't hate him, I used to be a Canadian; doesn't he live in Perth now? Cheers
Hes back home in Ontario ..Ahh used to be Canadian ! You must still be !
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #32
  • Jul 25, 2025 1:23am Jul 25, 2025 1:23am
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Hes back home in Ontario ..Ahh used to be Canadian ! You must still be !
Well, yes, I am, I just like to surprise people, especially Canadians who take a few seconds when I add, but I'm all right now.

There is more to the story however, I travelled extensively with my job(s) since 1971, became Australian in 1986, and carried both passports until around 2003 from memory.

I was in Calgary, and it was time to renew the Canadian passport, they took my payment, I went to the Manager's office when directed when I went to pick it up a week or so later. He told that since the 9/11 attack, Canada had put restrictions on holding 2 passports, and even though I could see it was issued as it was plainly there on the desktop with many papers attached, he did not give it to me. Refunded the payment of course.

With the advantage of many years of experience and some legal involvements, years later, I came to realize that I should have been given a written explanation, but sadly, I had nothing.

Fast forward to 2021, and planning to visit my, by now aging mother, and while checking on visa requirements for Canada, I was advised online, that being born in Canada, I must enter using a Canadian passport! WTF?

Fortunately, that was processed without too much hassle.

Sorry for the long saga, have a nice day.

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #33
  • Jul 25, 2025 8:26am Jul 25, 2025 8:26am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Well, yes, I am, I just like to surprise people, especially Canadians who take a few seconds when I add, but I'm all right now. There is more to the story however, I travelled extensively with my job(s) since 1971, became Australian in 1986, and carried both passports until around 2003 from memory. I was in Calgary, and it was time to renew the Canadian passport, they took my payment, I went to the Manager's office when directed when I went to pick it up a week or so later. He told that since the 9/11 attack, Canada had...
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #34
  • Jul 25, 2025 10:51am Jul 25, 2025 10:51am
Trends, ranges, any kind of market can work. What doesn’t work is the trader or the method they’re using. Like you said in your first post, use logic. From what I’ve seen, the more complicated the analysis or process gets, the harder it is to be profitable. The best thing that can save you time and money is KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid). Just look at the candles to see the trend. Don’t get creative. Don’t get fancy. Just place trades in the same direction as the candles, as long as they clearly look like they’re trending. That’s really all it takes. If anyone doesn’t think it can be that simple, check the TradeExplorer I set up this morning after seeing this thread. At the time of writing, this has already made 20% profit today.

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  • #35
  • Jul 25, 2025 3:46pm Jul 25, 2025 3:46pm
Quoting Erebus
Why do they say that trends don't work when in fact, for anyone to have a profitable trade, price must move in their desired direction, that is a trend however short isn't it? (The 2nd ever A.I. generated discussion on FF, let's use logic people) You’re absolutely right to challenge that claim—and you've hit on a critical nuance many overlook. The Truth Behind “Trends Don’t Work” When traders say, “trends don’t work,” they’re usually referencing: Failed breakout expectations (e.g. expecting a rally that fizzles) Trend-following strategies...
It has been said that 75% of the time the market is ranging. Maybe that's why they say trends don't work. In other words, it's not that they don't work but rather that they don't work enough. And then there's that nasty chop that comes with trends, which makes things even more difficult. The way I see it is you have to have deep pockets to survive the chop and drawdown. Otherwise, it just doesn't work out well.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #36
  • Jul 25, 2025 3:49pm Jul 25, 2025 3:49pm
Quoting HeyYa
Trends, ranges, any kind of market can work. What doesn’t work is the trader or the method they’re using. Like you said in your first post, use logic. From what I’ve seen, the more complicated the analysis or process gets, the harder it is to be profitable. The best thing that can save you time and money is KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid). Just look at the candles to see the trend. Don’t get creative. Don’t get fancy. Just place trades in the same direction as the candles, as long as they clearly look like they’re trending. That’s really all it takes....
It's all nice until you get wrecked in the chop or a correction. Trend trading is not as simple as historical data makes it look.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #37
  • Jul 25, 2025 5:23pm Jul 25, 2025 5:23pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} It's all nice until you get wrecked in the chop or a correction. Trend trading is not as simple as historical data makes it look.
What I meant is it doesn’t really matter if the market’s choppy, trending, correcting, or just ranging. The real problem is the method being used. If the method isn’t solid, it’s going to struggle no matter what the price is doing… which is probably why they say 'trends don’t work' instead of admitting their strategy doesn’t.
  • #38
  • Edited 2:43am Jul 26, 2025 2:31am | Edited 2:43am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} I would need a picture of that, not heard of that description before; does it happen often? And I think there is a typo, please check. "see rejection of bearish wicks on bullish candles at recent lows" "see rejection of bullish wicks on bearish candles at recent lows" (this should be highs?) Also, what is the thing to "see rejection"? Is it when we see the wicks and candles being opposite, e.g. bullish + bearish, or the next candle? You also promoted trend entries here -> https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post15308250...
Hi Erebus


Here is an example of one of my Setups called "Pullback King".

Here I was trading a pullback on NQ (NAS100 on Forex as this is a Forex thread) on a 5 Minute Chart around 2 hours after open. I Like to Fade Liquidity either in the direction of the trend OR at a top or bottom of a swing. The best way to trade a pullback is to use a time- based charts as the Setup but moved to a Tick chart for the actual execution.
Here I am looking to enter this trade on a retest of liquidity at 2. In real time, it reached down, stalled for a second then snapped back to the body of the candle before finishing as a bullish candle. I took the trade at close of the 50 Tick Candle for about 3R.

The risk & reward setups on pullbacks are fantastic, little risk with possible big reward.

If I am Fading Swing's, I need a minimum of at least three tests of liquidity and preferring with lower rejections when going short or three higher rejections of liquidity if I am going long (See chart 2).

Our job as traders is to avoid being caught in a Cascading Stop Loss event, then stay in the trend as long as yon can and embrace this discomfort.



Cheers
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #39
  • Jul 26, 2025 10:27am Jul 26, 2025 10:27am
Ill share what works for me and my view on it:

MMs build trends, not retail:
Trends don't just “happen.” Market Makers accumulate heavy positions (seen through PVSRA volume), then push price in one direction. If you read that early (volume on lows/highs), you're riding with them, not guessing.

Volume confirms direction:
A bullish trend often starts with climax volume on the lows, followed by candles holding above the Dragon (50 EMA). That's not random, its the markup phase. Volume tells you when the "real move" begins.

Key levels show the roadmap
Whole/half/quarter levels act like magnets. MMs run price between these levels to trap retail and fill orders. When you trade trends around these key levels, you're following their footsteps, not fighting them. Trends work when you stop treating them as random lines and start reading the why behind them.

Btw, we can never know what the MMs will do next, but we can know what they have done.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post15051766
  • #40
  • Edited 2:24pm Jul 26, 2025 11:23am | Edited 2:24pm
All you need is PA action on your favorite TF, no Indicator/MA/Liquidity/Levels, etc.. nothings will work better then HH/LL.

Choose your timeframe, Bullish - 2 higher lows, Bearish 2 lower highs, that is it..

I am showing arrows where trends start. I never wait that long to get in, but you are asking about the trends.
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