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  • #14,821
  • Edited 10:58pm Jul 22, 2025 10:40pm | Edited 10:58pm
The EUR/USD broke above 1.1721 resistance and reached 1.1761 on Trump's remarks about Powell cutting more than the US Federal Reserve and the market had priced in. Resistance becomes support, so 1.1721 is now helping the bulls for further advances towards 1.1800/29, unless sentiment sours and the pair closes below. In this case, 1.1700 - 1.1678 should be the sellers' targets.

Have a great day!


Daily volatility (range) 62 pips

Option expiries for Wednesday: 1.1800 (EU1.17b), 1.1900 (EU810.9m), 1.1495 (EU802m) source: financialjuice.com

Significant news - US Existing Home Sales

1H
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,822
  • Jul 22, 2025 11:15pm Jul 22, 2025 11:15pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
The EUR/USD broke above 1.1721 resistance and reached 1.1761 on Trump's remarks about Powell cutting more than the US Federal Reserve and the market had priced in. Resistance becomes support, so 1.1721 is now helping the bulls for further advances towards 1.1800/29, unless sentiment sours and the pair closes below. In this case, 1.1700 - 1.1678 should be the sellers' targets. Have a great day! Daily volatility (range) 62 pips Option expiries for Wednesday: 1.1800 (EU1.17b), 1.1900 (EU810.9m), 1.1495 (EU802m)...
bear needs to do a lot more to revert the current situation. we need Trump stop hassling Powell (probably unlikely to happen)

otherwise more just rinse and repeat we buy dip for another rise.

today i will try to allow bigger sl. Otherwise i will miss the joy!
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #14,823
  • Jul 22, 2025 11:48pm Jul 22, 2025 11:48pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} bear needs to do a lot more to revert the current situation. we need Trump stop hassling Powell (probably unlikely to happen) otherwise more just rinse and repeat we buy dip for another rise. today i will try to allow bigger sl. Otherwise i will miss the joy!
I'm long from 1696. Trump will continue the same rhetoric but the market may stop giving attention if other catalyst happen. So it will be interesting to see!

Green pips!
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  • #14,824
  • Jul 23, 2025 12:12am Jul 23, 2025 12:12am
H4 opening lvl 1.1735 Starting from this level, we build H4 candle body
We are on the middle Bollinger Band on the H1 chart - brake or bounce
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Zrzut ekranu 2025-07-23 070816.png Size: 14 KB

Bulls must defend the low of this H1 candle, breaking it opens the way for declines. It is also last week High lvl
  • #14,825
  • Jul 23, 2025 12:16am Jul 23, 2025 12:16am
Quoting Cavar
H4 opening lvl 1.1735 Starting from this level, we build H4 candle body We are on the middle Bollinger Band on the H1 chart - brake or bounce {image} Bulls must defend the low of this candle, breaking it opens the way for declines. It is also last week High lvl
Not looking well now but 1.1700 should hold. I'm keeping my long!
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  • #14,826
  • Jul 23, 2025 1:09am Jul 23, 2025 1:09am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} I'm long from 1696. Trump will continue the same rhetoric but the market may stop giving attention if other catalyst happen. So it will be interesting to see! Green pips!
i missed my long from 1693
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #14,827
  • Jul 23, 2025 1:45am Jul 23, 2025 1:45am
Quoting johncen
{quote} i missed my long from 1693
You can enter around here!
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  • #14,828
  • Jul 23, 2025 3:03am Jul 23, 2025 3:03am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} You can enter around here!
i m not too convinced with the pa over the last hour… hmmmmm
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #14,829
  • Jul 23, 2025 3:14am Jul 23, 2025 3:14am
Quoting johncen
{quote} i m not too convinced with the pa over the last hour… hmmmmm
i think eventually it will continue to go up. That is the set up until it fails.
i have 1737 as a decision level.

I m just not sure where it wants to go
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #14,830
  • Jul 23, 2025 3:22am Jul 23, 2025 3:22am
Quoting johncen
{quote} i think eventually it will continue to go up. That is the set up until it fails. i have 1737 as a decision level. I m just not sure where it wants to go
You see, both euro and usd are weak (in terms of pa right now). Hence...no idea where eu wants to go.
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  • #14,831
  • Jul 23, 2025 3:23am Jul 23, 2025 3:23am
Quoting johncen
{quote} i think eventually it will continue to go up. That is the set up until it fails. i have 1737 as a decision level. I m just not sure where it wants to go
Yea. This is how my view is now.
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  • #14,832
  • Jul 23, 2025 4:50am Jul 23, 2025 4:50am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Yea. This is how my view is now. {image}
bear is unable to break below 1730
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #14,833
  • Jul 23, 2025 5:03am Jul 23, 2025 5:03am
OK. I am trying to go long from here...
The huge positive volume on the last 1h candle has made me pull the trigger...
Tight SL ..
What I am afraid of is that before the NY Session, the big banks might want to clear our stop losses sitting on and below 1.1725
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Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 29 KB
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  • #14,834
  • Jul 23, 2025 5:30am Jul 23, 2025 5:30am
Quoting johncen
{quote} bear is unable to break below 1730
Price action stuck here. The US session should show us what next. Patience!
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  • #14,835
  • Jul 23, 2025 6:05am Jul 23, 2025 6:05am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Price action stuck here. The US session should show us what next. Patience!
Watching EU break down is like watching the paint dry though..
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  • #14,836
  • Jul 23, 2025 6:16am Jul 23, 2025 6:16am
Quoting fleps
{quote} Watching EU break down is like watching the paint dry though..
You need to go to the lower time frame, such as 1R, and you will see every single bubble of the paint dry, burst and merge..
So many things are going on there
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  • #14,837
  • Jul 23, 2025 7:06am Jul 23, 2025 7:06am
Quoting halkins
{quote} You need to go to the lower time frame, such as 1R, and you will see every single bubble of the paint dry, burst and merge.. So many things are going on there
At this point, all I see is above or below 117 lol.
I'm more curious why GBP and EUR is so weak against JPY today.
Silver also had an interesting mid-day reversal.
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  • #14,838
  • Jul 23, 2025 7:17am Jul 23, 2025 7:17am
Quoting fleps
{quote} At this point, all I see is above or below 117 lol. I'm more curious why GBP and EUR is so weak against JPY today.
Sorry folks... It's all because of me...
Mr. Market can see my SL and as soon as he wipes it out, the market will shoot towards 1.18 in less than 20 minutes
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  • #14,839
  • Jul 23, 2025 7:22am Jul 23, 2025 7:22am
Slew of EU data tomorrow (my time is set to GMT+8 at the momet).

Would be interesting to position ourselves ahead of all these.

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  • #14,840
  • Jul 23, 2025 7:48am Jul 23, 2025 7:48am
Quoting halkins
OK. I am trying to go long from here... The huge positive volume on the last 1h candle has made me pull the trigger... Tight SL .. What I am afraid of is that before the NY Session, the big banks might want to clear our stop losses sitting on and below 1.1725 {image}
Don't you think it could be a trap for buyers?
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