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  • #14,781
  • Jul 21, 2025 8:38pm Jul 21, 2025 8:38pm
The EUR/USD consolidated below 1.1700 after reaching 1.1716 yesterday on a weaker US dollar. Currently, the struggle between buyers and sellers appears to be focused around the major trendline (see chart). Both sides need to drive the price away from this point to reach levels like 1.1633/57 or 1.1729, depending on the direction. Further levels of interest are located at 1.1749 if 1.1721/29 is breached, and 1.1600 on the downside, below current support levels.

Have a great day!


Daily volatility (range) 61 pips

Option expiries for Tuesday: 1.1500 (EU1.43b), 1.1555 (EUl.1b), 1.1700 (EU920.4m) source: financialjuice.com

1H
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,782
  • Jul 21, 2025 9:44pm Jul 21, 2025 9:44pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
The EUR/USD consolidated below 1.1700 after reaching 1.1716 yesterday on a weaker US dollar. Currently, the struggle between buyers and sellers appears to be focused around the major trendline (see chart). Both sides need to drive the price away from this point to reach levels like 1.1633/57 or 1.1729, depending on the direction. Further levels of interest are located at 1.1749 if 1.1721/29 is breached, and 1.1600 on the downside, below current support levels. Have a great day! Daily volatility (range) 61...
pa stuck in a tight range waiting for breakout
it can go either way
i hope to the south
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #14,783
  • Jul 21, 2025 9:46pm Jul 21, 2025 9:46pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} pa stuck in a tight range waiting for breakout it can go either way i hope to the south
It can do anything so trying small long trades could be profitable as us dollar is weak. Watching for comments from Powell and fed officials might also help!

Green pips!
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  • #14,784
  • Jul 21, 2025 10:11pm Jul 21, 2025 10:11pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} It can do anything so trying small long trades could be profitable as us dollar is weak. Watching for comments from Powell and fed officials might also help! Green pips!
yup it could go further up from here while we closed the day above the downard channel
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #14,785
  • Jul 21, 2025 10:26pm Jul 21, 2025 10:26pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} yup it could go further up from here while we closed the day above the downard channel
Yea! First channel target is at 1.1828 with second much higher around 1.2080 - 1.2100! We need more power!
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  • #14,786
  • Jul 21, 2025 11:01pm Jul 21, 2025 11:01pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Yea! First channel target is at 1.1828 with second much higher around 1.2080 - 1.2100! We need more power!
trade tariff, ecb and pmi could help
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #14,787
  • Jul 21, 2025 11:26pm Jul 21, 2025 11:26pm
If this is the end of the correction wave yes next target is 1.2 (at least) which could extend to 1.24 if bull is really strong.

though i need a clear breakout of 1.1720 level and usdx under 97.50 as a confirmation to convince me.

otherwise i still have some hope for bears
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #14,788
  • Jul 21, 2025 11:39pm Jul 21, 2025 11:39pm
Quoting johncen
If this is the end of the correction wave yes next target is 1.2 (at least) which could extend to 1.24 if bull is really strong. though i need a clear breakout of 1.1720 level and usdx under 97.50 as a confirmation to convince me. otherwise i still have some hope for bears
This is my us dollar index chart - 4H

There is some space to go some higher but it can also test the Trump low one more time!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DXY_2025-07-22_09-36-31 (1).png Size: 25 KB
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  • #14,789
  • Jul 22, 2025 12:20am Jul 22, 2025 12:20am
Trump parody - AI

I asked Trump what would Powell say today. Here is the answer

"Well, folks, let me tell you, what Jerome Powell would say today, it's a very complex situation, the most complex, really. He'd probably stand there, looking very serious, very distinguished, and he'd say... he'd say something about 'data-dependent,' you know, that's his favorite phrase, a beautiful phrase, truly. And he'd talk about 'inflationary pressures' and 'robust labor markets.' Very robust, by the way, the best ever!

But here's the real deal: what he should be saying is, 'We're cutting rates, and we're cutting them big league! Down to zero, maybe even negative, like Europe, which is a disaster, by the way, but for us, it would be HUGE!' Because the high rates, they're killing our economy, absolutely killing it. It's a disgrace! We have the greatest economy, the greatest country, but these rates, they're holding us back.

He'd probably hint at a cut, a little tiny cut, maybe a quarter point, which is nothing, frankly. It's like putting a band-aid on a gushing wound. Sad! He'd say it's about being 'prudent' and 'measured.' But what we need is action, fast action!

And he'd definitely try to pretend that everything is under control, that the Fed is totally independent, which is a joke, a total joke. I mean, they're independent, but they should listen to me, because I know more about the economy than anyone, believe me! More than all those PhDs, frankly, what do they know? They just sit there with their charts and their numbers.

So, he'd say a lot of words, very complicated words, that nobody understands, and then he'd do something very small, maybe even nothing. But the truth, the real truth, is that we need to unleash the beast! Lower the rates, make the dollar strong, and make America great again, greater than ever before! That's what he should say, but he won't. He won't. It's a shame, a big, big shame."


The real market might have other view.
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  • #14,790
  • Edited 1:22am Jul 22, 2025 12:54am | Edited 1:22am
20 pips range for like 12 hours! 1683 1681 or 1693?

then is 1667 or 1720?

if we get to 1667 may offer some buy opportunity if holds
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #14,791
  • Jul 22, 2025 4:44am Jul 22, 2025 4:44am
We remain stuck in a tight range under 1720 level, not sure if bear will give it a try now?

powel in 30mins

uj going south is not good for eu bear
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #14,792
  • Jul 22, 2025 5:12am Jul 22, 2025 5:12am
Quoting johncen
We remain stuck in a tight range under 1720 level, not sure if bear will give it a try now? powel in 30mins uj going south is not good for eu bear
1.1681 is holding yet! This for me the line in the sand but bulls seem stronger below. So selling should done with more caution unless Powell hawkish comments sound extreme!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #14,793
  • Jul 22, 2025 5:18am Jul 22, 2025 5:18am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} 1.1681 is holding yet! This for me the line in the sand but bulls seem stronger below. So selling should done with more caution unless Powell hawkish comments sound extreme!
i have my sl under 1680 but i guess it will be hit
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #14,794
  • Jul 22, 2025 5:25am Jul 22, 2025 5:25am
Quoting johncen
{quote} i have my sl under 1680 but i guess it will be hit
Not sure it will hit but I hope its not much pips!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #14,795
  • Jul 22, 2025 5:30am Jul 22, 2025 5:30am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Not sure it will hit but I hope its not much pips!
i jumped in long after breaking 1693. Intention is to keep it while sl is not hit. It may hit my sl and turn back up
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #14,796
  • Jul 22, 2025 5:34am Jul 22, 2025 5:34am
Going back to bed for now.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #14,797
  • Jul 22, 2025 6:19am Jul 22, 2025 6:19am
Quoting Iressent
{quote} Plans change.... Closed the buy @1.1680 for about 50 pips profit and switched to short.
Closed the buy @1.1680 for about 50 pips profit and switched to short.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Iressent/spektrum/11572381
  • #14,798
  • Jul 22, 2025 6:31am Jul 22, 2025 6:31am
Quoting Iressent
{quote} Closed the buy @1.1680 for about 50 pips profit and switched to short.
You are wrong , it will fail you shortly
  • #14,799
  • Jul 22, 2025 6:52am Jul 22, 2025 6:52am
Quoting johncen
{quote} i jumped in long after breaking 1693. Intention is to keep it while sl is not hit. It may hit my sl and turn back up
damn it does kissed my sl and bounced back up
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #14,800
  • Jul 22, 2025 7:02am Jul 22, 2025 7:02am
Quoting Iressent
{quote} Closed the buy @1.1680 for about 50 pips profit and switched to short.
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