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- #15,222
- Jul 16, 2025 12:27pm Jul 16, 2025 12:27pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts
DAVE JANNY JULY ONE 2025 INVESTMENT LETTER
“(HOW TO BE A) MILLIONAIRE”
https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/ma...ils=true&pid=4
I’m taking a little bit of a different tact in this Letter, I’m sparing you some of the (maybe funny maybe not) theme pictures I normally use, and instead re-inserting the chart I used in my “ROLLERCOASTER” Letter, which I deem to be the most important chart I can show you. Again, kudos to Callum Thomas of @topdowncharts for posting and allowing me to use it.
An important development that has significantly aided investors in the last decade and a half is the absolute historical anomaly of just a couple of months of recession in that time period. Please acutely note and appreciate what an aberration that is from economic history. While anomalies can continue longer than I or others may believe, ultimately the consequences of the next recession could likely be very impactful as the underlying fragilities continue to build while being largely currently ignored by the complacently jubilant investor class.
I don’t know about you, but I enjoy TV trivia gameshows. One of my favorites as well as one of the more popular ones is “How to be a Millionaire”. As you might be familiar with, as the potential winnings pot gets bigger, the questions for the contestant in the hot seat get more difficult. If you get a question wrong, you’re eliminated, but you may have at least reached a guaranteed level less than your max level achieved. In the U.S. TV version, there are three potential “lifelines” you could use (once each) for assistance when facing a question where you may not be completely sure of the answer. Fandom describes the “lifeline” choices:
“50:50
Removes two incorrect answers, leaving the correct answer and one remaining one answer. In versions which allow 50:50 and Double Dip, they can both be used to guarantee a correct answer.
Phone-a-Friend
Allows the contestant to speak to one of a few contacts they nominated before the show for 30 seconds (may vary in some versions) to try to agree on a right answer.
Ask the Audience (Audience Poll)
Allows audience members to input an answer on their keypads to advise the contestant as to which option to pick.”
The last 16 years for Baby Boomers, in my mind, has very much resembled the gameshow, but with the added significant advantage of having a lot more than the normally just three allocated “lifelines”. A string of ongoing “emergency’ interventions and policies since the GFC has significantly aided investors, most notably Baby Boomers. Baby Boomers have been fortunate enough to have lived through an incredible 16 year investing stretch that encompassed their peak earnings, savings and investing years. I’ll share more thoughts on that in a moment, but how much do you think the events that this chart depicts has helped?
On the musical front, 1980s “new wave” afficionados and dance club partiers would remember English band ABC’s 1985 hit “(How to be a) Millionaire”. The enticing title meant a lot more in 1985 than it does in today’s dollars, but note the single came from the even sexier and ambitious album titled “How to be a … Zillionaire”. Today’s speculative investing climate is apparently attempting to live up to the lofty album title goal.
BELIEVE WHAT CAN HELP YOU GET TO THE MILLIONAIRE AND MORE STATUS
As I’ve often cited, it is getting increasingly difficult to believe anything we read, hear or even see (AI deep fakes). The focus of motivated “NARRATIVES”, intended to illicit an opinion or response, being directed at us has become overwhelming. This is especially true for someone like me, whose chosen occupation requires “knowing” what is happening in our world and trying to advise investors on how to interpret the voluminous and potentially conflicted information we are receiving. However, the problem is not exclusive to only financial professionals, as many individuals have become “addicted” to their phones and social media. The messaging from opposed factions has become increasingly divisive. ”Doom scrolling” has even become a commonly used term.
Statista recently ran a global poll trying to measure another new term – “news avoidance”. In the U.S. 42% of respondents were understandably inflicted with the condition.1 The song and theme “COMFORTABLY NUMB” (h/t Pink Floyd) come to mind.
What is somewhat surprising and ironic about the rise of things like “doom scrolling” and “news avoidance” amid the confusing messaging in “THE LAND OF CONFUSION” (h/t Genesis) is that a positive sentiment towards asset accumulation and appreciation has become firmly engrained in investor minds and has become the accepted default position no matter how much “doom scrolling” or “news avoidance” one succumbs to; no “CONFUSION” here, at least for the moment. There has become an expectation that prices “only go up” over time (even shorter-term time frames) and the government and financial authorities “have our back” and won’t allow for another sustained recession-induced bear market to dramatically hurt our financial position. The financial system has been designed to mask its flaws. It has incented speculation and investor complacency.
It seems like individual investors and financial advisors and Wall Street alike have comfortably cocooned into bullish “auto-pilot” mode. An eventual significant detour on “FINANCIALIZATION ROAD” most likely will provide navigational issues for many.
To help me make my point, allow me to relay a recent experience. I was having a consultation with a potential new client and learned that his current overall asset allocation was approximately 95% to U.S. equities. The gentleman was in his late 50s and had no doubt racked up a heftier portfolio as a result of his equity weighting. Not only was this person in “auto-pilot” mode, but so were his advisors who offered minimal communication and no change in strategy advice to boot.
Many investors are currently happily encamped in this eventual costly trap. I’m not sure precisely when this type of scenario becomes a problem for many, but rest assured that the inevitability of financial cycles, including the “OTHER SIDE” (h/t Aerosmith) eventually will play out and catch many in an expensive surprise.
LUCKY BOOMERS
While the quest for “MILLIONAIRE” and more status is not limited only to the Baby Boomers, it has been the Boomers that have occupied the pole position in the financial race. The Boomers were the original “borrow and spend’ generation and that mentality has thus far generally served them very well. That successful mantra has captured the imagination of many other age groups as well as effectively translated into many global geographies. I date the big picture “FINANCIALIZATION” trend I often write about as starting circa 1980, thus the last 4 ½ decades have been very well timed for Baby Boomers coming of age at the beginning of this trend.
After a rough decade that covered 2000-2009 and contained two 50% S&P bear markets, the last 16 years since then has been a financial boon that was amazingly even turbocharged after the onset of the 2020 pandemic. Investors have basically forgotten what the 2000s decade and recessions actually feel like. FYI, it’s not pretty or comfortable, but manageable and opportunistic if one is sufficiently prepared. My goal is to help in that beneficial preparation process.
I’d like to share another chart, courtesy of buffetindicator.net that reflects some more of that Boomer “luck”, it is the percentage reflecting the value of the Market Cap of the Wilshire 5000 divided by the U.S. GDP.
https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/ma...ils=true&pid=3
Needless to say, my introductory “recession by decade” chart is not the only chart that messages “anomaly.” As a matter of fact, the ratio eked a brand new high this past week at the nosebleed level of 209%. It’s obviously no wonder that Buffet’s Berkshire company is 1/3 invested in treasuries bills and is one of the biggest players in that market.
How high is high? According to buffetindicator.net, here are some historical indicator valuation data points:
Ratio = Total Market Cap / GDP Valuation
Ratio ≤ 86% Significantly Undervalued
86% < Ratio ≤ 111% Modestly Undervalued
111% < Ratio ≤ 135% Fair Valued
135% < Ratio ≤ 160% Modestly Overvalued
Ratio > 160% Significantly Overvalued
Where are we today (Jul 3, 2025)? Ratio = 209.5%, Significantly Overvalued 2
Notice how the ratio has quadrupled since the March 2009 GFC equity market low, not only does it reflect the fact that stocks have done incredibly well, but it also confirms the fact that the GDP growth of the economic period since then has been among the slowest in U.S. history.
There’s no question that the huge debt buildup has played a pivotal role in the lack of recessions, but at the same time curbing economic growth. The recession avoidance, despite slow economic growth, has been rewarded by the highest market valuation (not price but value versus the economy) in history. Note that the 50% market cap/GDP reading in 2009 was the last sustained recession. Unless one believes recessions have been miraculously outlawed, at this likely late stage of this cycle, some appropriate level of caution and defensive positioning seems to make sense.
Referring once again to some pop culture history, here’s a famous line from Clint Eastwood’s” Dirty” Harry Callahan character worth contemplating:
“You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya, punk?”
THE CURRENT RALLY
After a rough start amid a near 20% S&P 500 correction taking us into April 2025, the market has responded with a blistering rally since then. We started out the year with “fiscal prudence” and “deficit reduction” being some of the stated goals of the Trump administration’s economic team, but it seems that the painful correction has caused a shift in gears.
It'd difficult to predict the fiscal and deficit impact of Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill”, but one thing to consider about any scoring of its impact on future deficits is that it likely doesn’t account for the possibility of a prolonged recession: an “overdue” recession in my view. I believe it would be safe to assume that a recession would with near certainty “blow out” the deficit and the already record debt/GDP ratio of approximately 125% where we stand today.
I can’t give you much if any fundamental rationale and justification for the current rally, but it feels to me to resemble a “blow off” top that sharp momentum-driven rallies have a knack of turning into. As I’ve opined in my previous Letters, it feels like the speculative and potentially frothy asset markets have become “the economy”, thus there seems to be a more than reasonable possibility that a sustained market correction is what actually tips the real economy into recession. Keep in mind, it is those highly valued assets that serve as the collateral for much of that big debt pile; simultaneous excessive debt and valuations is a nasty combo that many times is what triggers the recessionary tipping point.
CONCLUSION
The recent rally in my view presents a great opportunity for those “lucky” Boomers as well as investors of all stripes to dial back their current investment “risk”. While the market could continue to work higher, I hope I’ve beneficially communicated to you that the combination of a historic dearth of recession coupled with historic market valuation should give you cause for pause; you don’t need to strive to become a “zillionaire” as the 1985 ABC album title advocated for.
Before you make any financial decisions such as asset allocation, retirement, real estate purchases, relocation and job/business choices, I urge you to keep in mind that while we don’t know the exact timing of an overdue recession, it is pending and you need to access the potential impact of that inevitability on those financial decisions.
I’ll leave you with a reiteration of some David Rosenberg comments at the Mauldin conference that I included in my “ROLLERCOASTER” Letter. I hope they resonate with you; they certainly do for me.
“… The household sector of America has never before had $50 trillion of exposure of equities on their balance sheet. Nobody this cycle has rebalanced. Diversification became a dirty 15 letter word - buy every dip.
“Take a look at what the equity ownership was going into the tech wreck. Barely more than $10 trillion. Going into the financial crisis, $15 trillion. Now we're at $50 trillion so there's a lot at stake here…
“71% of the household financial assets is in stocks. Who wants bonds? 8% in bonds. Bonds are for losers. Who shows up at the cocktail party talking about the belly of the curve? No one will talk to you. No. We'll talk about Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100.”
Now I’ll add a little more clarity and significance from those Rosenberg comments directed towards Baby Boomers, but applicable to all:
“But what's most important is the boomers… The median boomer is now age 70. It's not 45 or 50 or 55 as it was going into the Great Financial Crisis. And over 60% of the boomers' portfolio is in the equity market. It should be 30 to 40%. Time is not on their side. And I shudder to think what happens if this ever shrinks when you're taking a look at the biggest exposures to equities are in the wrong demographic.” 3
Stay safe my friends.
ABOUT DAVID JANNY
David Janny is a Financial Advisor with over 40 years of experience in the financial services industry and is currently a Managing Director at Ameriprise Financial. Throughout his career he has withstood the madness of markets, standing firm in his commitment to fundamental and macro analysis, portfolio construction, and financial planning, David is also a music aficionado, blending his passion for financial markets with his love of many different musical genres to create investment themes. His experience and dedication make him an advisor for high-net-worth individuals seeking comprehensive financial guidance.
Recent Investment Letters can be found here:
ttps://www.ameripriseadvisors.com/david.janny/resources/
1 https://www.statista.com/chart/27632...al%20wellbeing.
2 https://buffettindicator.net/
3 https://www.mauldineconomics.com/fro...ation-standoff
The views expressed here reflect the views of David Janny as of May 29th, 2025. These views may change as market or other conditions change. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Ameriprise Financial and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, will not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not account for individual investor circumstances.
Investment products are not insured by the FDIC, NCUA or any federal agency, are not deposits or obligations of, or guaranteed by any financial institution, and involve investment risks including possible loss of principal and fluctuation in value.
Stock investments have an element of risk. High-quality stocks may be appropriate for some investments strategies. Ensure that your investment objectives, time horizon and risk tolerance are aligned with stocks before investing, as they can lose value.
There are risks associated with fixed-income investments, including credit risk, interest rate risk, and prepayment and extension risk. In general, bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer term securities.
In general, equity securities tend to have greater price volatility than debt securities. The market value of securities may fall, fail to rise or fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and unpredictably. Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole.
International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency instabilities and different financial and accounting standards.
Ameriprise Financial cannot guarantee future financial results.
Asset allocation and diversification do not assure a profit or protect against loss.
8141898ACMR0725
https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/ma...ils=true&pid=6
David Janny
Financial Advisor | Managing Director
.................................
Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC
10 Wright Street
First Floor
Westport, CT 06880
Office: 203.349.4323 | Fax: 203.221.0391
Toll Free: 888.838.7705
“(HOW TO BE A) MILLIONAIRE”
https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/ma...ils=true&pid=4
I’m taking a little bit of a different tact in this Letter, I’m sparing you some of the (maybe funny maybe not) theme pictures I normally use, and instead re-inserting the chart I used in my “ROLLERCOASTER” Letter, which I deem to be the most important chart I can show you. Again, kudos to Callum Thomas of @topdowncharts for posting and allowing me to use it.
An important development that has significantly aided investors in the last decade and a half is the absolute historical anomaly of just a couple of months of recession in that time period. Please acutely note and appreciate what an aberration that is from economic history. While anomalies can continue longer than I or others may believe, ultimately the consequences of the next recession could likely be very impactful as the underlying fragilities continue to build while being largely currently ignored by the complacently jubilant investor class.
I don’t know about you, but I enjoy TV trivia gameshows. One of my favorites as well as one of the more popular ones is “How to be a Millionaire”. As you might be familiar with, as the potential winnings pot gets bigger, the questions for the contestant in the hot seat get more difficult. If you get a question wrong, you’re eliminated, but you may have at least reached a guaranteed level less than your max level achieved. In the U.S. TV version, there are three potential “lifelines” you could use (once each) for assistance when facing a question where you may not be completely sure of the answer. Fandom describes the “lifeline” choices:
“50:50
Removes two incorrect answers, leaving the correct answer and one remaining one answer. In versions which allow 50:50 and Double Dip, they can both be used to guarantee a correct answer.
Phone-a-Friend
Allows the contestant to speak to one of a few contacts they nominated before the show for 30 seconds (may vary in some versions) to try to agree on a right answer.
Ask the Audience (Audience Poll)
Allows audience members to input an answer on their keypads to advise the contestant as to which option to pick.”
The last 16 years for Baby Boomers, in my mind, has very much resembled the gameshow, but with the added significant advantage of having a lot more than the normally just three allocated “lifelines”. A string of ongoing “emergency’ interventions and policies since the GFC has significantly aided investors, most notably Baby Boomers. Baby Boomers have been fortunate enough to have lived through an incredible 16 year investing stretch that encompassed their peak earnings, savings and investing years. I’ll share more thoughts on that in a moment, but how much do you think the events that this chart depicts has helped?
On the musical front, 1980s “new wave” afficionados and dance club partiers would remember English band ABC’s 1985 hit “(How to be a) Millionaire”. The enticing title meant a lot more in 1985 than it does in today’s dollars, but note the single came from the even sexier and ambitious album titled “How to be a … Zillionaire”. Today’s speculative investing climate is apparently attempting to live up to the lofty album title goal.
BELIEVE WHAT CAN HELP YOU GET TO THE MILLIONAIRE AND MORE STATUS
As I’ve often cited, it is getting increasingly difficult to believe anything we read, hear or even see (AI deep fakes). The focus of motivated “NARRATIVES”, intended to illicit an opinion or response, being directed at us has become overwhelming. This is especially true for someone like me, whose chosen occupation requires “knowing” what is happening in our world and trying to advise investors on how to interpret the voluminous and potentially conflicted information we are receiving. However, the problem is not exclusive to only financial professionals, as many individuals have become “addicted” to their phones and social media. The messaging from opposed factions has become increasingly divisive. ”Doom scrolling” has even become a commonly used term.
Statista recently ran a global poll trying to measure another new term – “news avoidance”. In the U.S. 42% of respondents were understandably inflicted with the condition.1 The song and theme “COMFORTABLY NUMB” (h/t Pink Floyd) come to mind.
What is somewhat surprising and ironic about the rise of things like “doom scrolling” and “news avoidance” amid the confusing messaging in “THE LAND OF CONFUSION” (h/t Genesis) is that a positive sentiment towards asset accumulation and appreciation has become firmly engrained in investor minds and has become the accepted default position no matter how much “doom scrolling” or “news avoidance” one succumbs to; no “CONFUSION” here, at least for the moment. There has become an expectation that prices “only go up” over time (even shorter-term time frames) and the government and financial authorities “have our back” and won’t allow for another sustained recession-induced bear market to dramatically hurt our financial position. The financial system has been designed to mask its flaws. It has incented speculation and investor complacency.
It seems like individual investors and financial advisors and Wall Street alike have comfortably cocooned into bullish “auto-pilot” mode. An eventual significant detour on “FINANCIALIZATION ROAD” most likely will provide navigational issues for many.
To help me make my point, allow me to relay a recent experience. I was having a consultation with a potential new client and learned that his current overall asset allocation was approximately 95% to U.S. equities. The gentleman was in his late 50s and had no doubt racked up a heftier portfolio as a result of his equity weighting. Not only was this person in “auto-pilot” mode, but so were his advisors who offered minimal communication and no change in strategy advice to boot.
Many investors are currently happily encamped in this eventual costly trap. I’m not sure precisely when this type of scenario becomes a problem for many, but rest assured that the inevitability of financial cycles, including the “OTHER SIDE” (h/t Aerosmith) eventually will play out and catch many in an expensive surprise.
LUCKY BOOMERS
While the quest for “MILLIONAIRE” and more status is not limited only to the Baby Boomers, it has been the Boomers that have occupied the pole position in the financial race. The Boomers were the original “borrow and spend’ generation and that mentality has thus far generally served them very well. That successful mantra has captured the imagination of many other age groups as well as effectively translated into many global geographies. I date the big picture “FINANCIALIZATION” trend I often write about as starting circa 1980, thus the last 4 ½ decades have been very well timed for Baby Boomers coming of age at the beginning of this trend.
After a rough decade that covered 2000-2009 and contained two 50% S&P bear markets, the last 16 years since then has been a financial boon that was amazingly even turbocharged after the onset of the 2020 pandemic. Investors have basically forgotten what the 2000s decade and recessions actually feel like. FYI, it’s not pretty or comfortable, but manageable and opportunistic if one is sufficiently prepared. My goal is to help in that beneficial preparation process.
I’d like to share another chart, courtesy of buffetindicator.net that reflects some more of that Boomer “luck”, it is the percentage reflecting the value of the Market Cap of the Wilshire 5000 divided by the U.S. GDP.
https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/ma...ils=true&pid=3
Needless to say, my introductory “recession by decade” chart is not the only chart that messages “anomaly.” As a matter of fact, the ratio eked a brand new high this past week at the nosebleed level of 209%. It’s obviously no wonder that Buffet’s Berkshire company is 1/3 invested in treasuries bills and is one of the biggest players in that market.
How high is high? According to buffetindicator.net, here are some historical indicator valuation data points:
Ratio = Total Market Cap / GDP Valuation
Ratio ≤ 86% Significantly Undervalued
86% < Ratio ≤ 111% Modestly Undervalued
111% < Ratio ≤ 135% Fair Valued
135% < Ratio ≤ 160% Modestly Overvalued
Ratio > 160% Significantly Overvalued
Where are we today (Jul 3, 2025)? Ratio = 209.5%, Significantly Overvalued 2
Notice how the ratio has quadrupled since the March 2009 GFC equity market low, not only does it reflect the fact that stocks have done incredibly well, but it also confirms the fact that the GDP growth of the economic period since then has been among the slowest in U.S. history.
There’s no question that the huge debt buildup has played a pivotal role in the lack of recessions, but at the same time curbing economic growth. The recession avoidance, despite slow economic growth, has been rewarded by the highest market valuation (not price but value versus the economy) in history. Note that the 50% market cap/GDP reading in 2009 was the last sustained recession. Unless one believes recessions have been miraculously outlawed, at this likely late stage of this cycle, some appropriate level of caution and defensive positioning seems to make sense.
Referring once again to some pop culture history, here’s a famous line from Clint Eastwood’s” Dirty” Harry Callahan character worth contemplating:
“You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya, punk?”
THE CURRENT RALLY
After a rough start amid a near 20% S&P 500 correction taking us into April 2025, the market has responded with a blistering rally since then. We started out the year with “fiscal prudence” and “deficit reduction” being some of the stated goals of the Trump administration’s economic team, but it seems that the painful correction has caused a shift in gears.
It'd difficult to predict the fiscal and deficit impact of Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill”, but one thing to consider about any scoring of its impact on future deficits is that it likely doesn’t account for the possibility of a prolonged recession: an “overdue” recession in my view. I believe it would be safe to assume that a recession would with near certainty “blow out” the deficit and the already record debt/GDP ratio of approximately 125% where we stand today.
I can’t give you much if any fundamental rationale and justification for the current rally, but it feels to me to resemble a “blow off” top that sharp momentum-driven rallies have a knack of turning into. As I’ve opined in my previous Letters, it feels like the speculative and potentially frothy asset markets have become “the economy”, thus there seems to be a more than reasonable possibility that a sustained market correction is what actually tips the real economy into recession. Keep in mind, it is those highly valued assets that serve as the collateral for much of that big debt pile; simultaneous excessive debt and valuations is a nasty combo that many times is what triggers the recessionary tipping point.
CONCLUSION
The recent rally in my view presents a great opportunity for those “lucky” Boomers as well as investors of all stripes to dial back their current investment “risk”. While the market could continue to work higher, I hope I’ve beneficially communicated to you that the combination of a historic dearth of recession coupled with historic market valuation should give you cause for pause; you don’t need to strive to become a “zillionaire” as the 1985 ABC album title advocated for.
Before you make any financial decisions such as asset allocation, retirement, real estate purchases, relocation and job/business choices, I urge you to keep in mind that while we don’t know the exact timing of an overdue recession, it is pending and you need to access the potential impact of that inevitability on those financial decisions.
I’ll leave you with a reiteration of some David Rosenberg comments at the Mauldin conference that I included in my “ROLLERCOASTER” Letter. I hope they resonate with you; they certainly do for me.
“… The household sector of America has never before had $50 trillion of exposure of equities on their balance sheet. Nobody this cycle has rebalanced. Diversification became a dirty 15 letter word - buy every dip.
“Take a look at what the equity ownership was going into the tech wreck. Barely more than $10 trillion. Going into the financial crisis, $15 trillion. Now we're at $50 trillion so there's a lot at stake here…
“71% of the household financial assets is in stocks. Who wants bonds? 8% in bonds. Bonds are for losers. Who shows up at the cocktail party talking about the belly of the curve? No one will talk to you. No. We'll talk about Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100.”
Now I’ll add a little more clarity and significance from those Rosenberg comments directed towards Baby Boomers, but applicable to all:
“But what's most important is the boomers… The median boomer is now age 70. It's not 45 or 50 or 55 as it was going into the Great Financial Crisis. And over 60% of the boomers' portfolio is in the equity market. It should be 30 to 40%. Time is not on their side. And I shudder to think what happens if this ever shrinks when you're taking a look at the biggest exposures to equities are in the wrong demographic.” 3
Stay safe my friends.
ABOUT DAVID JANNY
David Janny is a Financial Advisor with over 40 years of experience in the financial services industry and is currently a Managing Director at Ameriprise Financial. Throughout his career he has withstood the madness of markets, standing firm in his commitment to fundamental and macro analysis, portfolio construction, and financial planning, David is also a music aficionado, blending his passion for financial markets with his love of many different musical genres to create investment themes. His experience and dedication make him an advisor for high-net-worth individuals seeking comprehensive financial guidance.
Recent Investment Letters can be found here:
ttps://www.ameripriseadvisors.com/david.janny/resources/
1 https://www.statista.com/chart/27632...al%20wellbeing.
2 https://buffettindicator.net/
3 https://www.mauldineconomics.com/fro...ation-standoff
The views expressed here reflect the views of David Janny as of May 29th, 2025. These views may change as market or other conditions change. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Ameriprise Financial and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, will not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not account for individual investor circumstances.
Investment products are not insured by the FDIC, NCUA or any federal agency, are not deposits or obligations of, or guaranteed by any financial institution, and involve investment risks including possible loss of principal and fluctuation in value.
Stock investments have an element of risk. High-quality stocks may be appropriate for some investments strategies. Ensure that your investment objectives, time horizon and risk tolerance are aligned with stocks before investing, as they can lose value.
There are risks associated with fixed-income investments, including credit risk, interest rate risk, and prepayment and extension risk. In general, bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer term securities.
In general, equity securities tend to have greater price volatility than debt securities. The market value of securities may fall, fail to rise or fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and unpredictably. Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole.
International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency instabilities and different financial and accounting standards.
Ameriprise Financial cannot guarantee future financial results.
Asset allocation and diversification do not assure a profit or protect against loss.
8141898ACMR0725
https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/ma...ils=true&pid=6
David Janny
Financial Advisor | Managing Director
.................................
Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC
10 Wright Street
First Floor
Westport, CT 06880
Office: 203.349.4323 | Fax: 203.221.0391
Toll Free: 888.838.7705
- #15,223
- Jul 16, 2025 12:32pm Jul 16, 2025 12:32pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts
https://www.google.com/search?q=Aust...hrome&ie=UTF-8
What Is Austrian Economics?
The Austrian school of economics originated around the time of Carl Menger's 1871 book "Principles of Economics." Menger's theory was based on the simple idea that the value of goods and services is subjective based on an individual consumer's perception. Therefore, increasing the supply of goods decreases their perceived value, an idea that later became known as diminishing marginal utility.
Austrian economics can also be used to understand and interpret macroeconomic factors such as money supply, inflation and foreign exchange rates.
The Austrian school of economics emphasizes macroeconomic ideas such as free markets, private property and minimal central bank intervention. Austrian economists make the libertarian argument that government intervention in the economy typically does more harm than good.
Austrian economists also believe economic recessions are caused by credit cycles triggered when central banks keep interest rates too low for too long in an attempt to stimulate economic growth. They argue monetary policy intended to stimulate instead creates economic inefficiency, wasting resources and sacrificing long-term economic stability for short-term economic growth.
The Austrian school is generally critical of the use of fiat currency and prefers money be backed by gold reserves or some other form of tangible resource. They believe the use of inconvertible fiat money encourages governments to devalue currencies, destroy savings and create inflation.
Austrian economists generally rely on logic and critical thinking more than complex statistical models and formulas. They believe maintaining free markets and protecting the money supply are keys to ensuring social progress and civil liberty. As a result, central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve can be enemy number one for Austrian economists.
Asher Rogovy, chief investment officer at Magnifina, says Austrian economics suggests central banks should take a hands-off approach to the economy.
"Central banks can control an economy's money supply, which affects interest rates. Austrian-school economists tend to believe that inflation is simply a function of money supply and therefore it should remain constant to avoid inflation," Rogovy says.
READ:
What Is a Soft Landing for the Economy? Will We Have One?
What Is Keynesian Economics?
John Maynard Keynes challenged the idea that a free market would automatically maximize employment. The central principle of Keynes' argument is that aggregate economic demand, which includes household, business and government spending, is the most important factor in determining economic growth. Keynes believed passive free markets have no mechanism in place to maximize employment, but government intervention can help create jobs while also maintaining stable prices.
Keynesian economists believe a free market can produce periods of inadequate demand that can lead to extended periods of high unemployment. During a recession, consumer confidence drops and discretionary spending plummets, which exacerbates the problem. Demand for products and services falls, leading businesses to cut their investments and further weaken the economy.
According to Keynesian economics, it is the role of the government to step in during these periods to modify monetary policy and stimulate the economy to maintain stability.
Keynesian economists generally believe maximizing employment should take priority over minimizing inflation. The idea that the government should expand the money supply during economic downturns is known as expansionary fiscal policy. Expansionary fiscal policy can involve the government implementing subsidies, increasing welfare entitlements or cutting taxes to increase the purchasing power of its citizens. Governments can also reduce unemployment by hiring new government workers or contractors.
READ:
De-Dollarization: What Would Happen if the Dollar Lost Reserve Currency Status?
Keynesian Economics vs. Austrian Economics: The Biggest Differences
Keynesian and Austrian economists have vastly different takes on a wide range of economic topics. However, their key philosophical disagreement boils down to one main idea: government economic intervention.
"The central idea behind Keynesian economics is that the government has the power to stabilize the economy through strategic intervention," says Jake Hill, CEO of DebtHammer. "This stands in opposition to Austrian economics, a theory that states that government should have zero involvement in economic processes such as stabilizing market prices."
That one main disagreement manifests in several ways:
What Is Austrian Economics?
The Austrian school of economics originated around the time of Carl Menger's 1871 book "Principles of Economics." Menger's theory was based on the simple idea that the value of goods and services is subjective based on an individual consumer's perception. Therefore, increasing the supply of goods decreases their perceived value, an idea that later became known as diminishing marginal utility.
Austrian economics can also be used to understand and interpret macroeconomic factors such as money supply, inflation and foreign exchange rates.
The Austrian school of economics emphasizes macroeconomic ideas such as free markets, private property and minimal central bank intervention. Austrian economists make the libertarian argument that government intervention in the economy typically does more harm than good.
Austrian economists also believe economic recessions are caused by credit cycles triggered when central banks keep interest rates too low for too long in an attempt to stimulate economic growth. They argue monetary policy intended to stimulate instead creates economic inefficiency, wasting resources and sacrificing long-term economic stability for short-term economic growth.
The Austrian school is generally critical of the use of fiat currency and prefers money be backed by gold reserves or some other form of tangible resource. They believe the use of inconvertible fiat money encourages governments to devalue currencies, destroy savings and create inflation.
Austrian economists generally rely on logic and critical thinking more than complex statistical models and formulas. They believe maintaining free markets and protecting the money supply are keys to ensuring social progress and civil liberty. As a result, central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve can be enemy number one for Austrian economists.
Asher Rogovy, chief investment officer at Magnifina, says Austrian economics suggests central banks should take a hands-off approach to the economy.
"Central banks can control an economy's money supply, which affects interest rates. Austrian-school economists tend to believe that inflation is simply a function of money supply and therefore it should remain constant to avoid inflation," Rogovy says.
READ:
What Is a Soft Landing for the Economy? Will We Have One?
What Is Keynesian Economics?
John Maynard Keynes challenged the idea that a free market would automatically maximize employment. The central principle of Keynes' argument is that aggregate economic demand, which includes household, business and government spending, is the most important factor in determining economic growth. Keynes believed passive free markets have no mechanism in place to maximize employment, but government intervention can help create jobs while also maintaining stable prices.
Keynesian economists believe a free market can produce periods of inadequate demand that can lead to extended periods of high unemployment. During a recession, consumer confidence drops and discretionary spending plummets, which exacerbates the problem. Demand for products and services falls, leading businesses to cut their investments and further weaken the economy.
According to Keynesian economics, it is the role of the government to step in during these periods to modify monetary policy and stimulate the economy to maintain stability.
Keynesian economists generally believe maximizing employment should take priority over minimizing inflation. The idea that the government should expand the money supply during economic downturns is known as expansionary fiscal policy. Expansionary fiscal policy can involve the government implementing subsidies, increasing welfare entitlements or cutting taxes to increase the purchasing power of its citizens. Governments can also reduce unemployment by hiring new government workers or contractors.
READ:
De-Dollarization: What Would Happen if the Dollar Lost Reserve Currency Status?
Keynesian Economics vs. Austrian Economics: The Biggest Differences
Keynesian and Austrian economists have vastly different takes on a wide range of economic topics. However, their key philosophical disagreement boils down to one main idea: government economic intervention.
"The central idea behind Keynesian economics is that the government has the power to stabilize the economy through strategic intervention," says Jake Hill, CEO of DebtHammer. "This stands in opposition to Austrian economics, a theory that states that government should have zero involvement in economic processes such as stabilizing market prices."
That one main disagreement manifests in several ways:
- Austrian economists believe free markets are efficient and self-regulatory. Keynesian economists believe free markets are inherently inefficient and volatile.
- Austrian economists believe government intervention in free markets makes negative business cycles more severe, while Keynesian economists believe governments can implement policies to stabilize the economy and mitigate recessions.
- Austrian economists believe companies should be allowed to fail during economic downturns to eliminate the least efficient businesses. This process also helps allocate more resources to the most efficient existing businesses, as well as to the creation of new businesses. Many Keynesian economists would argue government investments could help keep major insolvent companies afloat and avoid job losses during recessions.
- Austrian economists believe inflation is a negative event because it destroys savings and devalues currencies. Keynesian economists believe a low, steady inflation rate stimulates economic growth and encourages investment.
- Austrian economists believe in "sound money," convertible currency which is backed by gold or other hard assets. Keynesian economists support fiat currencies, which can be manipulated by central banks to adjust the money supply and stabilize the economy.
How to Invest Money to Make Money
It seems obvious, but not all rides end at the top of the roller coaster. These tips can keep your assets on track.
Kate StalterJuly 17, 2023
https://www.usnews.com/object/image/...nsiveSquare150
Tags: investing, economics, money, economy, consumers, prices, inflation, interest rates, recession, economic stimulus, fiscal policy, monetary policy, Federal Reserve
- #15,224
- Jul 16, 2025 12:51pm Jul 16, 2025 12:51pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...a-distraction/
Inflationary Pressures Began After 2015 – Tariffs are a Distraction
Posted Jul 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Spread the love
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...iled.jpg?w=260
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations foresees inflation returning to “pre-tariff” levels. As I have mentioned, the rising costs were a mere price correction and not a permanent rise in inflation. Tariffs were NEVER the root cause of inflation.
The central bank predicts that inflation will read 3% in 13 months, which would be the same level of inflation—at least by the Fed’s calculations—since Trump entered the White House. The Fed was stating that prices would rise 3.6% back in March and April when the tariffs were announced. They blamed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff for the Great Depression, just like they’re now blaming Trump’s tariffs for inflation. It’s a political narrative.
Central bank members see inflation remaining unchanged over the next three to five years at 3% and 2.6% respectively. However, members see prices increasing in food (5.5%), medical (9.3%), gas (4.2%), rent (9.1%), and college tuition (9.1%). There is a plethora of factors leading to inflation in the aforementioned categories, none of which have any relation to tariffs.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...5.75.jpg?w=300
Prices have simply not returned to what they once were before the global economy came to a standstill during COVID. Every nation has been affected. The lockdowns and supply chain cracks were exacerbated by a massive increase of government spending. Then the government doubled down on green policies, causing energy prices to rise, and lit the situation ablaze amid the Ukraine war and Russian sanctions. The world was already amid a sovereign debt crisis before COVID, and in fact, the Economic Confidence Model clearly stated that the landscape would permanently change after the Big Bang target of October 1, 2015 (2015.75)—the peak in government confidence.
2015.75 was the beginning of the decline we are witnessing in sovereign bonds globally. The migrant crisis began in 2015 when former German Chancellor Angela Merkel invited Syrian refugees to Europe, leading other Build Back Better nations to follow suit in the years since. Anti-establishment sentiment was already on the rise when Trump first secured the presidency the following year in 2016.
Trump was not the cause, he was the symptom. The people lost faith in the establishment starting in 2015.75 and this is part of the global shift predicted precisely by the system. The Fed thinks inflation is a monetary issue. We are in a sovereign debt crisis, a confidence crisis, and a geopolitical storm and not a normal business cycle.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
Inflationary Pressures Began After 2015 – Tariffs are a Distraction
Posted Jul 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Spread the love
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...iled.jpg?w=260
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations foresees inflation returning to “pre-tariff” levels. As I have mentioned, the rising costs were a mere price correction and not a permanent rise in inflation. Tariffs were NEVER the root cause of inflation.
The central bank predicts that inflation will read 3% in 13 months, which would be the same level of inflation—at least by the Fed’s calculations—since Trump entered the White House. The Fed was stating that prices would rise 3.6% back in March and April when the tariffs were announced. They blamed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff for the Great Depression, just like they’re now blaming Trump’s tariffs for inflation. It’s a political narrative.
Central bank members see inflation remaining unchanged over the next three to five years at 3% and 2.6% respectively. However, members see prices increasing in food (5.5%), medical (9.3%), gas (4.2%), rent (9.1%), and college tuition (9.1%). There is a plethora of factors leading to inflation in the aforementioned categories, none of which have any relation to tariffs.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...5.75.jpg?w=300
Prices have simply not returned to what they once were before the global economy came to a standstill during COVID. Every nation has been affected. The lockdowns and supply chain cracks were exacerbated by a massive increase of government spending. Then the government doubled down on green policies, causing energy prices to rise, and lit the situation ablaze amid the Ukraine war and Russian sanctions. The world was already amid a sovereign debt crisis before COVID, and in fact, the Economic Confidence Model clearly stated that the landscape would permanently change after the Big Bang target of October 1, 2015 (2015.75)—the peak in government confidence.
2015.75 was the beginning of the decline we are witnessing in sovereign bonds globally. The migrant crisis began in 2015 when former German Chancellor Angela Merkel invited Syrian refugees to Europe, leading other Build Back Better nations to follow suit in the years since. Anti-establishment sentiment was already on the rise when Trump first secured the presidency the following year in 2016.
Trump was not the cause, he was the symptom. The people lost faith in the establishment starting in 2015.75 and this is part of the global shift predicted precisely by the system. The Fed thinks inflation is a monetary issue. We are in a sovereign debt crisis, a confidence crisis, and a geopolitical storm and not a normal business cycle.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
- #15,225
- Jul 16, 2025 12:53pm Jul 16, 2025 12:53pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
In the last twenty years, top FOREX traders rarely earned over 5% a month or 60% a year and NEVER more than three years in a row. There are reasons for this.
My students are expected to earn 5% a month under my guidance for 90 days, the length of my hands-on teaching.
Forex trading presents vast opportunities for profit through its high liquidity and leverage options. However, it also carries inherent risks, demanding a thorough understanding of market mechanics, disciplined trading strategies, and effective risk management. As a dynamic and complex financial market, Forex offers global challenges and rewards to participants.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
News from around the world. Please CLICK on the link below.
https://finviz.com/news.ashx?v=2
5-Minute Chart of Dow 30 - Our X-Ray Photo - Please CLICK on the LINK below.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
Please sign up for our 90-day Forex Trading and Information course by sending an E-transfer of 100..00 Canadian dollars to Tobyruth11@yahoo.com
"Trader" does not mean the sole objective is making money. The moment you come with money-making as the sole and only objective, you are out of the game anyway and part of the larger crowd, which is unsuccessful
Do things that can identify you as a professional trader - learn the process, understand and follow risk management and position sizing. Be disciplined and understand that trading is a long haul.
Each day, from around 8:30 AM to 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time, I determine whether we have RISK ON or OFF.
No indicator can do this just as no technical indicator can effectively predict what will happen moment to moment as one MAJOR fundamental fact whether GEOPOLITICAL or FINANCIAL or now SUPPLY CHAIN or some New Covid 19 variant can cause the markets to go down or up 500 points as the Dow 30 has been doing recently and will continue to do. This sometimes happens in one day, so normal charting cannot work.
That is why my Unique Method of Forex trading was developed in 2003 when I started trading Forex, and later in 2012 when I added to my business model and started teaching my unique 100% proven method of Money Flow trading.
It is no longer possible to trade Forex without a STOP LOSS.
A STOP LOSS of fewer than 100 PIPS is not a good strategy. That leads me to explain why most of 95% of all Retail Forex Traders lose. They trade with small amounts of money and SCALP, making it almost impossible to make profits over one year because of the VIOLENT NATURE of the swings in the Asset Classes caused by world-changing events.
Each Forex Trade that you do should not risk more than 2% of your trading Capital and that is based on trading Capital of $50,000 US Dollars, INITIALLY learning on a $50,000 US Funds Demo account just as I did for three years before I made my first Real Funds Trade on March 9, 2006, 18 years ago.
PLEASE GO WITH THE MONEY FLOW
Let us review what we teach and why it works if YOU WORK.
Without your WORK, you are wasting your time and probably your money.
There is no such thing as Political Correctness here because we are here to teach and share our knowledge.
SO.... going back to our winning FORMULA for FOREX SUCCESS.
20% of the SUCCESS is yourself, the Forex Trader.
20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE, which we teach you in Money Flow Trading.
20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard-earned money). Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear, and greed. Of course, we want to ensure you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader, so our course is for three months. So we can teach you the right trading methods. We can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.
20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators, which include not only the common ones. It consists of understanding supply and demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points, which you can see daily on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans, which we also help you develop and explain WHY. We review these Winning Trade Plans every three months or more frequently if market circumstances require that.
20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than the Data released daily worldwide. It includes reports and articles that are extremely well researched, as you can see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets, especially in North America, is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do and are not surprised when events eventually unfold.
When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't Forex trading, they stare at screens and force trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business.
Quoting perfectionis
What are the key principles of risk management in forex trading, especially considering the influence of central banks and market sentiment? How do you determine risk-on or risk-off conditions, and how does it affect currency flows? Considering both fundamental factors and technical indicators, what impact could the British election have on forex markets? That election took place on Thursday, July 4, 2024.
The answers to your excellent questions will happen by registering to post on Forex Factory, so you can post your questions or comments on my thread.
PERCEPTION is not REALITY. Most commercial and retail Forex traders have no idea what QE (Quantitative Easing) and QT (Quantitative Tightening) do to CAUSE INFLATION.
If you want to call me and discuss it further, I offer direct contact by calling me at 1 819 275 7780. Please sign up for my service by sending a Bank E Transfer of Canadian funds to Tobyruth11@yahoo.com
The fee is 100.00 dollars in Canadian funds from your bank account by E-Transfer.
We believe in a hands-on approach at a more than reasonable cost for a comprehensive service.
We can all see by looking at the link below, the 5 Minute Chart of Dow 30, the patterns keep repeating, and you all have a chance if you want to learn to become very wealthy over the next year by signing up. You have zero risk, as the information that you will have access to is invaluable.
Here is the link.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
LOOK AT THE PATTERN OF TODAY and every Forex trading day from Sunday at 2:00 AM Eastern Standard Time in Europe to 10:00 AM Eastern Standard Time when North American Equity Markets start trading at 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time on Monday.
This X-RAY and PATTERN repeats between Sunday and Friday at 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time when All Forex Trading stops until 3:00 PM Eastern Standard Time when New Zealand opens for trading, followed by Asia at 8:00 PM, Europe at 2:00 AM and North America at 9:30 AM.
ABSOLUTE FORTUNES ARE POSSIBLE ONCE YOU UNDERSTAND !!! And you show that you have the DISCIPLINE by your results to CONTROL your FEAR, GREED and EGO !!! The markets are always right until they are not.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
If you want to call me and discuss it further, I offer direct contact by calling me at 1 819 275 7780. I will spend a minimum of 30 minutes with you on the telephone to answer any of your questions at NO COST TO YOU. Please sign up for my service by sending a Bank E Transfer of Canadian funds to Tobyr[email protected]
5-Minute Chart of Dow 30 - Our X-Ray Photo - Please CLICK on the LINK below.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
NOTE: PLEASE REGISTER TO POST ON THIS THREAD. WE CAN THEN HELP YOU BECOME SKILLED WITH 24/7 Guidance. It costs nothing to register and takes less than 5 minutes.
CLICK ON THE LINK ABOVE AND LOOK AT THE REPEATING X-RAY Each Forex Trading Day.
You Need To Act So I Can Help You DISCOVER if you have the SKILLS to become a winning Forex trader using LEVERAGE of 100 to 1.
Our Forex Trade Plan from April 1, 2025, until June 30, 2025, is SHORT 50 UNITS of DOW 30, SHORT 50 UNITS of SP500, Go LONG 100 ounces of Gold and 5000 Ounces of Silver. I usually choose one of the MAJOR Currency Pairs to SHORT or GO LONG ON.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
CLICK ON THIS LINK - IT IS THE 5-Minute Chart Of Dow 30. See how the KNOWN PATTERNS REPEAT -
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
THE WRONG PERCEPTION WORLDWIDE CONTINUES IN THE STOCK MARKETS.
WHY? Most Traders and EXPERTS do not understand ECONOMICS. READ THE April 2025 JOHN HUSSMAN NEWSLETTER. It will be the next post after this one.
HE CALLED IT PERFECTLY. RATE CUTS CANNOT STOP A RECESSION AND OTHER SERIOUS PROBLEMS IN THE MANIPULATED STOCK MARKETS.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
LOOK AT THE PATTERN OF the last 24 hours as it repeats every day, which is why my results are spectacular and PROFITABLE.
CLICK ON THE LINK ABOVE AND SIGN UP OR CALL ME FOR A ONE-ON-ONE 30-minute discussion. Thanks - BWM
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
You can also reach me by emailing [email protected] for further information on how I can help you make money and educate you on matters of most importance in our ever-changing world.
In the last twenty years, top FOREX traders rarely earned over 5% a month or 60% a year and NEVER more than three years in a row. There are reasons for this.
My students are expected to earn 5% a month under my guidance for 90 days, the length of my hands-on teaching.
Forex trading presents vast opportunities for profit through its high liquidity and leverage options. However, it also carries inherent risks, demanding a thorough understanding of market mechanics, disciplined trading strategies, and effective risk management. As a dynamic and complex financial market, Forex offers global challenges and rewards to participants.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
News from around the world. Please CLICK on the link below.
https://finviz.com/news.ashx?v=2
5-Minute Chart of Dow 30 - Our X-Ray Photo - Please CLICK on the LINK below.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
Please sign up for our 90-day Forex Trading and Information course by sending an E-transfer of 100..00 Canadian dollars to Tobyruth11@yahoo.com
"Trader" does not mean the sole objective is making money. The moment you come with money-making as the sole and only objective, you are out of the game anyway and part of the larger crowd, which is unsuccessful
Do things that can identify you as a professional trader - learn the process, understand and follow risk management and position sizing. Be disciplined and understand that trading is a long haul.
Each day, from around 8:30 AM to 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time, I determine whether we have RISK ON or OFF.
No indicator can do this just as no technical indicator can effectively predict what will happen moment to moment as one MAJOR fundamental fact whether GEOPOLITICAL or FINANCIAL or now SUPPLY CHAIN or some New Covid 19 variant can cause the markets to go down or up 500 points as the Dow 30 has been doing recently and will continue to do. This sometimes happens in one day, so normal charting cannot work.
That is why my Unique Method of Forex trading was developed in 2003 when I started trading Forex, and later in 2012 when I added to my business model and started teaching my unique 100% proven method of Money Flow trading.
It is no longer possible to trade Forex without a STOP LOSS.
A STOP LOSS of fewer than 100 PIPS is not a good strategy. That leads me to explain why most of 95% of all Retail Forex Traders lose. They trade with small amounts of money and SCALP, making it almost impossible to make profits over one year because of the VIOLENT NATURE of the swings in the Asset Classes caused by world-changing events.
Each Forex Trade that you do should not risk more than 2% of your trading Capital and that is based on trading Capital of $50,000 US Dollars, INITIALLY learning on a $50,000 US Funds Demo account just as I did for three years before I made my first Real Funds Trade on March 9, 2006, 18 years ago.
PLEASE GO WITH THE MONEY FLOW
Let us review what we teach and why it works if YOU WORK.
Without your WORK, you are wasting your time and probably your money.
There is no such thing as Political Correctness here because we are here to teach and share our knowledge.
SO.... going back to our winning FORMULA for FOREX SUCCESS.
20% of the SUCCESS is yourself, the Forex Trader.
20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE, which we teach you in Money Flow Trading.
20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard-earned money). Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear, and greed. Of course, we want to ensure you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader, so our course is for three months. So we can teach you the right trading methods. We can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.
20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators, which include not only the common ones. It consists of understanding supply and demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points, which you can see daily on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans, which we also help you develop and explain WHY. We review these Winning Trade Plans every three months or more frequently if market circumstances require that.
20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than the Data released daily worldwide. It includes reports and articles that are extremely well researched, as you can see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets, especially in North America, is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do and are not surprised when events eventually unfold.
When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't Forex trading, they stare at screens and force trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business.
Quoting perfectionis
What are the key principles of risk management in forex trading, especially considering the influence of central banks and market sentiment? How do you determine risk-on or risk-off conditions, and how does it affect currency flows? Considering both fundamental factors and technical indicators, what impact could the British election have on forex markets? That election took place on Thursday, July 4, 2024.
The answers to your excellent questions will happen by registering to post on Forex Factory, so you can post your questions or comments on my thread.
PERCEPTION is not REALITY. Most commercial and retail Forex traders have no idea what QE (Quantitative Easing) and QT (Quantitative Tightening) do to CAUSE INFLATION.
If you want to call me and discuss it further, I offer direct contact by calling me at 1 819 275 7780. Please sign up for my service by sending a Bank E Transfer of Canadian funds to Tobyruth11@yahoo.com
The fee is 100.00 dollars in Canadian funds from your bank account by E-Transfer.
We believe in a hands-on approach at a more than reasonable cost for a comprehensive service.
We can all see by looking at the link below, the 5 Minute Chart of Dow 30, the patterns keep repeating, and you all have a chance if you want to learn to become very wealthy over the next year by signing up. You have zero risk, as the information that you will have access to is invaluable.
Here is the link.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
LOOK AT THE PATTERN OF TODAY and every Forex trading day from Sunday at 2:00 AM Eastern Standard Time in Europe to 10:00 AM Eastern Standard Time when North American Equity Markets start trading at 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time on Monday.
This X-RAY and PATTERN repeats between Sunday and Friday at 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time when All Forex Trading stops until 3:00 PM Eastern Standard Time when New Zealand opens for trading, followed by Asia at 8:00 PM, Europe at 2:00 AM and North America at 9:30 AM.
ABSOLUTE FORTUNES ARE POSSIBLE ONCE YOU UNDERSTAND !!! And you show that you have the DISCIPLINE by your results to CONTROL your FEAR, GREED and EGO !!! The markets are always right until they are not.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
If you want to call me and discuss it further, I offer direct contact by calling me at 1 819 275 7780. I will spend a minimum of 30 minutes with you on the telephone to answer any of your questions at NO COST TO YOU. Please sign up for my service by sending a Bank E Transfer of Canadian funds to Tobyr[email protected]
5-Minute Chart of Dow 30 - Our X-Ray Photo - Please CLICK on the LINK below.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
NOTE: PLEASE REGISTER TO POST ON THIS THREAD. WE CAN THEN HELP YOU BECOME SKILLED WITH 24/7 Guidance. It costs nothing to register and takes less than 5 minutes.
CLICK ON THE LINK ABOVE AND LOOK AT THE REPEATING X-RAY Each Forex Trading Day.
You Need To Act So I Can Help You DISCOVER if you have the SKILLS to become a winning Forex trader using LEVERAGE of 100 to 1.
Our Forex Trade Plan from April 1, 2025, until June 30, 2025, is SHORT 50 UNITS of DOW 30, SHORT 50 UNITS of SP500, Go LONG 100 ounces of Gold and 5000 Ounces of Silver. I usually choose one of the MAJOR Currency Pairs to SHORT or GO LONG ON.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
CLICK ON THIS LINK - IT IS THE 5-Minute Chart Of Dow 30. See how the KNOWN PATTERNS REPEAT -
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
THE WRONG PERCEPTION WORLDWIDE CONTINUES IN THE STOCK MARKETS.
WHY? Most Traders and EXPERTS do not understand ECONOMICS. READ THE April 2025 JOHN HUSSMAN NEWSLETTER. It will be the next post after this one.
HE CALLED IT PERFECTLY. RATE CUTS CANNOT STOP A RECESSION AND OTHER SERIOUS PROBLEMS IN THE MANIPULATED STOCK MARKETS.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
LOOK AT THE PATTERN OF the last 24 hours as it repeats every day, which is why my results are spectacular and PROFITABLE.
CLICK ON THE LINK ABOVE AND SIGN UP OR CALL ME FOR A ONE-ON-ONE 30-minute discussion. Thanks - BWM
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
You can also reach me by emailing [email protected] for further information on how I can help you make money and educate you on matters of most importance in our ever-changing world.
- #15,226
- Jul 16, 2025 12:58pm Jul 16, 2025 12:58pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...at-know-so-far
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
Status Of Tariffs With 15 Top US Trading Partners - What To Know So Far
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, July 16, 2025 - 01:40 PM
Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,
President Donald Trump’s administration is working to address trade imbalances with a group of 15 top trading partners.
When the president’s trade saga commenced this year, White House officials coined the term “Dirty 15” to describe a group of nations identified as having significant surpluses with the United States.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=SJM0dugv
Current Time 0:33
By grappling with multibillion-dollar trade deficits and various trade barriers, the Trump administration is signaling a broader realignment in international trade.
Ahead of the Aug. 1 reciprocal tariff deadline, many of these countries are scrambling to intensify negotiations, seek exemptions or reductions, and reach trade agreements.
Here is the state of trade with these foreign markets.
China
This month, the White House announced that it reached a limited deal with China, putting together an agreement on tariffs and export controls.
The Chinese regime agreed to resume rare earth exports to the United States, and the current U.S. administration rolled back countermeasures.
Artificial intelligence chipmaker Nvidia stated on July 14 that the U.S. government has agreed to grant the tech titan licenses to sell chips to China.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a July 15 interview with Bloomberg Television: “It was all part of a mosaic. They had things we wanted. We had things they wanted, and we’re in a very good place.”
Global financial markets are closely watching a key date, Aug. 12, which will be the end of a 90-day tariff pause between the world’s two largest economies.
But Bessent said he is unconcerned.
“I tell market participants not to worry about Aug. 12,” he said.
Bessent has plans to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in the coming weeks.
According to the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office, the U.S. goods trade deficit with China was $295.4 billion in 2024.
Mexico
Trump will implement a 30 percent tariff on goods imported from Mexico.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=sjQEdbHx
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announces retaliatory tariffs against the United States at the National Palace in Mexico City on March 4, 2025. Alfredo Estrella/AFP via Getty Images
“Mexico has been helping me secure the border, but what Mexico has done, is not enough,” Trump wrote in a letter to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.
He also said that if Mexico raises tariffs, the United States will add an amount equal to that increase to the 30 percent rate.
Mexican officials confirmed in a statement shortly after the letter was posted to social media platform Truth Social that a delegation had met with U.S. officials to discuss trade and was informed of the new tariff rate.
“We stated at the meeting that this was unfair treatment and that we disagreed,” the statement reads. “It is very significant that starting July 11, we established the necessary pathway and forum to resolve any possibility of new tariffs taking effect on Aug. 1.”
In 2024, U.S.–Mexico trade totaled nearly $840 billion, with the United States running a deficit of $171.8 billion.
On July 14, the Commerce Department announced a 17 percent antidumping duty on most fresh tomato imports from Mexico. The move could cause disruptions because Mexico supplies about two-thirds of the U.S. tomato market.
Vietnam
Earlier this month, Trump confirmed that he reached a trade agreement with Vietnam.
According to the president, Vietnam will pay a 20 percent tariff “on any and all goods sent into” the United States and a 40 percent tax on any transshipping. In exchange, U.S. goods exported to Vietnam will be subject to no tariffs.
“Dealing with General Secretary To Lam, which I did personally, was an absolute pleasure,” Trump said on Truth Social.
Although the deal was centered on Vietnam, the agreement also applies economic pressure on China and the issue of transshipping. This practice involves rerouting Chinese goods to Vietnam, where they are repackaged or relabeled and then exported to the United States.
European Union
In a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Trump said he would impose a 30 percent tariff on goods entering the United States from the European Union.
Economists say member states Germany, Ireland, and Italy would be severely affected.
Last year, the U.S. goods trade deficits with Germany and Ireland were firmly above $80 billion. The trade gap with Italy was close to $44 billion in 2024.
“Donald Trump’s letter to the EU is not a love letter but also not a hate letter,” ING economists said in a July 13 research note. “It’s a letter to increase pressure in the ongoing negotiations. The next days and weeks will tell whether Europe is willing and able to compromise to the U.S. liking.”
EU leaders say 30 percent tariffs on “exports would disrupt essential transatlantic supply chains” and adversely affect businesses and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.
Although the 27-member bloc is prepared to establish a trade agreement by Aug. 1, Von der Leyen said in a statement, “We will take all necessary steps to safeguard EU interests, including the adoption of proportionate countermeasures if required.”
Taiwan
Taiwan has not received a formal tariff letter from Trump and remains under a temporary blanket 10 percent levy. If a deal is not reached between the two sides, the tariff on Taiwan could climb to 32 percent.
The U.S. goods trade gap with Taiwan was nearly $74 billion last year, up by more than 54 percent from 2023.
Japan
Starting on Aug. 1, the United States will impose a 25 percent tariff on all Japanese imports. This is in addition to the current sector-specific levies, such as 50 percent on steel and aluminum and 25 percent on automobiles and car parts.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=1KYLGPb9
President Trump holds a gift for Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba during a press conference at the East Room of the White House on Feb. 7, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said at a Cabinet meeting this month that progress had been made on trade negotiations.
“We have received a proposal from the United States to swiftly proceed with negotiations toward the newly set Aug. 1 deadline, and ... depending on Japan’s response, the content of the letter could be revised,” Ishiba stated on July 7.
Trump has been highly critical of Japan’s trade practices, recently pointing to the country’s rice crisis.
“They and others are so spoiled from having ripped us off for 30, 40 years that it’s really hard for them to make a deal. You know, it’s very hard,” he said to reporters aboard Air Force One. “As an example, with Japan, they won’t take rice, and yet they desperately need rice. They won’t take any cars, but they’ll sell millions. So we told them, ‘Sorry, you can’t do that.’”
The U.S. goods trade deficit with Japan was $68.5 billion in 2024, down by more than 4 percent from 2023.
South Korea
South Korea will also face a 25 percent tariff if it cannot put together a deal with the U.S. administration. Officials in Seoul stated that they plan to bolster trade negotiations, noting that talks must include exemptions or reductions in auto and steel tariffs.
Speaking to reporters in Maryland on July 13, Trump said that the country “wants to make a deal right now.”
The U.S. trade deficit with South Korea totaled $66 billion in 2024, up by more than 29 percent from 2023.
South Korea was late to the negotiating table because the government was going through an election.
Canada
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney received a letter from Trump and was informed that a 35 percent tariff would be imposed on goods coming from Canada.
The president alluded to the fentanyl crisis and protectionist measures such as Canada’s dairy import rules.
Officials north of the border have said they need to ensure that Canadian businesses and workers are shielded from the adverse effects of Trump’s levies.
“In the face of President Trump’s latest threat, we need to come together. We need a plan on how Canada will respond and how we’ll protect our workers, businesses and communities,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford said on social media platform X.
On his way to a Cabinet meeting in Ottawa, Carney told reporters that most countries will likely face baseline tariff rates. Still, according to the prime minister, U.S.–Canada trade discussions will intensify ahead of next month’s deadline.
“At the same time, we need to recognize that the commercial landscape globally has changed,” he said. “It has changed in a fundamental manner, and we will continue to focus on what we can most control, which is building a strong Canadian economy.”
This comes after Statistics Canada reported that the annual inflation rate rose to 1.9 percent in June from 1.7 percent in May. Core inflation, which strips the volatile energy and food components, climbed to 2.7 percent from 2.5 percent.
“Core inflation has remained stubbornly above target, driven in part by supply chain pressures tied to ongoing tariffs,” David-Alexandre Brassard, CPA Canada’s chief economist, said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=wx5z3ivz
President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the White House on May 6, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times
In 2024, the U.S. goods trade deficit with Canada exceeded $63 billion.
India
India was notably excluded from this month’s batch of letters.
Officials have been involved in active bilateral trade talks, and both sides have signaled optimism that an agreement could be finalized.
In April, India was facing a 26 percent reciprocal tariff.
Trump announced at a Cabinet meeting that he plans to install a 10 percent tariff on imports from “any country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS.”
BRICS is a coalition of emerging market countries led by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Other countries recently joined the group, including Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates.
In 2024, the U.S. goods trade deficit with India was $45.7 billion, up by 5.4 percent from 2023.
Thailand
Thailand, which enjoys a $46 billion trade surplus with the United States, could face a 36 percent tariff in August if the two sides cannot reach a deal.
The U.S. economy is a significant market for Thailand, accounting for nearly one-fifth of its exports in 2024.
Bangkok has proposed lowering its import duties on many U.S. products to zero.
Malaysia
Malaysia, a major exporter of electronics and semiconductors, will be slapped with a 25 percent tariff on its exports next month, slightly higher than the 24 percent levy announced in April.
Malaysian trade officials say they do not plan to retaliate and intend to continue negotiating.
Data from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative show that the U.S. goods trade deficit with Malaysia was $24.8 billion in 2024, a 7.6 percent decline from the previous year.
Indonesia
Indonesia became the fourth country to reach a new trade deal following Trump’s sweeping global tariff plans announced in April.
According to the president, products imported from Indonesia would be hit with a 19 percent tariff.
U.S. goods would have full access to the Indonesian economy without any levies.
Without a bilateral trade agreement, Indonesia would have faced a 32 percent tariff.
The U.S. goods trade deficit with Indonesia was shy of $18 billion in 2024.
Brazil
Trump stated in a July 9 letter that he will impose a 50 percent tariff on Brazil next month, citing Brazil’s nontariff trade barriers and treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is on trial.
In a formal letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Trump said the country was engaged in a “witch hunt that should end immediately.”
Bolsonaro is accused of trying to stage a coup against Lula.
Lula threatened tit-for-tat retaliatory tariffs if Trump follows through.
“Brazil is a sovereign nation with independent institutions and will not accept any form of tutelage,” Lula said in a post on X. “Any measure to increase tariffs unilaterally will be responded to in light of Brazil’s Law of Economic Reciprocity.”
Last year, the United States registered a goods trade surplus with Brazil of $7.4 billion, up by 32 percent from 2023.
Brazil exported goods worth a total of more than $42 billion to the United States in 2024, driven by crude oil, industrial metals, airplanes, and coffee.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
Status Of Tariffs With 15 Top US Trading Partners - What To Know So Far
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by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, July 16, 2025 - 01:40 PM
Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,
President Donald Trump’s administration is working to address trade imbalances with a group of 15 top trading partners.
When the president’s trade saga commenced this year, White House officials coined the term “Dirty 15” to describe a group of nations identified as having significant surpluses with the United States.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=SJM0dugv
Current Time 0:33
By grappling with multibillion-dollar trade deficits and various trade barriers, the Trump administration is signaling a broader realignment in international trade.
Ahead of the Aug. 1 reciprocal tariff deadline, many of these countries are scrambling to intensify negotiations, seek exemptions or reductions, and reach trade agreements.
Here is the state of trade with these foreign markets.
China
This month, the White House announced that it reached a limited deal with China, putting together an agreement on tariffs and export controls.
The Chinese regime agreed to resume rare earth exports to the United States, and the current U.S. administration rolled back countermeasures.
Artificial intelligence chipmaker Nvidia stated on July 14 that the U.S. government has agreed to grant the tech titan licenses to sell chips to China.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a July 15 interview with Bloomberg Television: “It was all part of a mosaic. They had things we wanted. We had things they wanted, and we’re in a very good place.”
Global financial markets are closely watching a key date, Aug. 12, which will be the end of a 90-day tariff pause between the world’s two largest economies.
But Bessent said he is unconcerned.
“I tell market participants not to worry about Aug. 12,” he said.
Bessent has plans to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in the coming weeks.
According to the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office, the U.S. goods trade deficit with China was $295.4 billion in 2024.
Mexico
Trump will implement a 30 percent tariff on goods imported from Mexico.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=sjQEdbHx
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announces retaliatory tariffs against the United States at the National Palace in Mexico City on March 4, 2025. Alfredo Estrella/AFP via Getty Images
“Mexico has been helping me secure the border, but what Mexico has done, is not enough,” Trump wrote in a letter to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.
He also said that if Mexico raises tariffs, the United States will add an amount equal to that increase to the 30 percent rate.
Mexican officials confirmed in a statement shortly after the letter was posted to social media platform Truth Social that a delegation had met with U.S. officials to discuss trade and was informed of the new tariff rate.
“We stated at the meeting that this was unfair treatment and that we disagreed,” the statement reads. “It is very significant that starting July 11, we established the necessary pathway and forum to resolve any possibility of new tariffs taking effect on Aug. 1.”
In 2024, U.S.–Mexico trade totaled nearly $840 billion, with the United States running a deficit of $171.8 billion.
On July 14, the Commerce Department announced a 17 percent antidumping duty on most fresh tomato imports from Mexico. The move could cause disruptions because Mexico supplies about two-thirds of the U.S. tomato market.
Vietnam
Earlier this month, Trump confirmed that he reached a trade agreement with Vietnam.
According to the president, Vietnam will pay a 20 percent tariff “on any and all goods sent into” the United States and a 40 percent tax on any transshipping. In exchange, U.S. goods exported to Vietnam will be subject to no tariffs.
“Dealing with General Secretary To Lam, which I did personally, was an absolute pleasure,” Trump said on Truth Social.
Although the deal was centered on Vietnam, the agreement also applies economic pressure on China and the issue of transshipping. This practice involves rerouting Chinese goods to Vietnam, where they are repackaged or relabeled and then exported to the United States.
European Union
In a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Trump said he would impose a 30 percent tariff on goods entering the United States from the European Union.
Economists say member states Germany, Ireland, and Italy would be severely affected.
Last year, the U.S. goods trade deficits with Germany and Ireland were firmly above $80 billion. The trade gap with Italy was close to $44 billion in 2024.
“Donald Trump’s letter to the EU is not a love letter but also not a hate letter,” ING economists said in a July 13 research note. “It’s a letter to increase pressure in the ongoing negotiations. The next days and weeks will tell whether Europe is willing and able to compromise to the U.S. liking.”
EU leaders say 30 percent tariffs on “exports would disrupt essential transatlantic supply chains” and adversely affect businesses and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.
Although the 27-member bloc is prepared to establish a trade agreement by Aug. 1, Von der Leyen said in a statement, “We will take all necessary steps to safeguard EU interests, including the adoption of proportionate countermeasures if required.”
Taiwan
Taiwan has not received a formal tariff letter from Trump and remains under a temporary blanket 10 percent levy. If a deal is not reached between the two sides, the tariff on Taiwan could climb to 32 percent.
The U.S. goods trade gap with Taiwan was nearly $74 billion last year, up by more than 54 percent from 2023.
Japan
Starting on Aug. 1, the United States will impose a 25 percent tariff on all Japanese imports. This is in addition to the current sector-specific levies, such as 50 percent on steel and aluminum and 25 percent on automobiles and car parts.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=1KYLGPb9
President Trump holds a gift for Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba during a press conference at the East Room of the White House on Feb. 7, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said at a Cabinet meeting this month that progress had been made on trade negotiations.
“We have received a proposal from the United States to swiftly proceed with negotiations toward the newly set Aug. 1 deadline, and ... depending on Japan’s response, the content of the letter could be revised,” Ishiba stated on July 7.
Trump has been highly critical of Japan’s trade practices, recently pointing to the country’s rice crisis.
“They and others are so spoiled from having ripped us off for 30, 40 years that it’s really hard for them to make a deal. You know, it’s very hard,” he said to reporters aboard Air Force One. “As an example, with Japan, they won’t take rice, and yet they desperately need rice. They won’t take any cars, but they’ll sell millions. So we told them, ‘Sorry, you can’t do that.’”
The U.S. goods trade deficit with Japan was $68.5 billion in 2024, down by more than 4 percent from 2023.
South Korea
South Korea will also face a 25 percent tariff if it cannot put together a deal with the U.S. administration. Officials in Seoul stated that they plan to bolster trade negotiations, noting that talks must include exemptions or reductions in auto and steel tariffs.
Speaking to reporters in Maryland on July 13, Trump said that the country “wants to make a deal right now.”
The U.S. trade deficit with South Korea totaled $66 billion in 2024, up by more than 29 percent from 2023.
South Korea was late to the negotiating table because the government was going through an election.
Canada
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney received a letter from Trump and was informed that a 35 percent tariff would be imposed on goods coming from Canada.
The president alluded to the fentanyl crisis and protectionist measures such as Canada’s dairy import rules.
Officials north of the border have said they need to ensure that Canadian businesses and workers are shielded from the adverse effects of Trump’s levies.
“In the face of President Trump’s latest threat, we need to come together. We need a plan on how Canada will respond and how we’ll protect our workers, businesses and communities,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford said on social media platform X.
On his way to a Cabinet meeting in Ottawa, Carney told reporters that most countries will likely face baseline tariff rates. Still, according to the prime minister, U.S.–Canada trade discussions will intensify ahead of next month’s deadline.
“At the same time, we need to recognize that the commercial landscape globally has changed,” he said. “It has changed in a fundamental manner, and we will continue to focus on what we can most control, which is building a strong Canadian economy.”
This comes after Statistics Canada reported that the annual inflation rate rose to 1.9 percent in June from 1.7 percent in May. Core inflation, which strips the volatile energy and food components, climbed to 2.7 percent from 2.5 percent.
“Core inflation has remained stubbornly above target, driven in part by supply chain pressures tied to ongoing tariffs,” David-Alexandre Brassard, CPA Canada’s chief economist, said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=wx5z3ivz
President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the White House on May 6, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times
In 2024, the U.S. goods trade deficit with Canada exceeded $63 billion.
India
India was notably excluded from this month’s batch of letters.
Officials have been involved in active bilateral trade talks, and both sides have signaled optimism that an agreement could be finalized.
In April, India was facing a 26 percent reciprocal tariff.
Trump announced at a Cabinet meeting that he plans to install a 10 percent tariff on imports from “any country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS.”
BRICS is a coalition of emerging market countries led by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Other countries recently joined the group, including Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates.
In 2024, the U.S. goods trade deficit with India was $45.7 billion, up by 5.4 percent from 2023.
Thailand
Thailand, which enjoys a $46 billion trade surplus with the United States, could face a 36 percent tariff in August if the two sides cannot reach a deal.
The U.S. economy is a significant market for Thailand, accounting for nearly one-fifth of its exports in 2024.
Bangkok has proposed lowering its import duties on many U.S. products to zero.
Malaysia
Malaysia, a major exporter of electronics and semiconductors, will be slapped with a 25 percent tariff on its exports next month, slightly higher than the 24 percent levy announced in April.
Malaysian trade officials say they do not plan to retaliate and intend to continue negotiating.
Data from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative show that the U.S. goods trade deficit with Malaysia was $24.8 billion in 2024, a 7.6 percent decline from the previous year.
Indonesia
Indonesia became the fourth country to reach a new trade deal following Trump’s sweeping global tariff plans announced in April.
According to the president, products imported from Indonesia would be hit with a 19 percent tariff.
U.S. goods would have full access to the Indonesian economy without any levies.
Without a bilateral trade agreement, Indonesia would have faced a 32 percent tariff.
The U.S. goods trade deficit with Indonesia was shy of $18 billion in 2024.
Brazil
Trump stated in a July 9 letter that he will impose a 50 percent tariff on Brazil next month, citing Brazil’s nontariff trade barriers and treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is on trial.
In a formal letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Trump said the country was engaged in a “witch hunt that should end immediately.”
Bolsonaro is accused of trying to stage a coup against Lula.
Lula threatened tit-for-tat retaliatory tariffs if Trump follows through.
“Brazil is a sovereign nation with independent institutions and will not accept any form of tutelage,” Lula said in a post on X. “Any measure to increase tariffs unilaterally will be responded to in light of Brazil’s Law of Economic Reciprocity.”
Last year, the United States registered a goods trade surplus with Brazil of $7.4 billion, up by 32 percent from 2023.
Brazil exported goods worth a total of more than $42 billion to the United States in 2024, driven by crude oil, industrial metals, airplanes, and coffee.
- #15,227
- Jul 21, 2025 9:35am Jul 21, 2025 9:35am
- | Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts
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Hussman Market Comment
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The Impression of Invincibility
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John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust
July 20, 2025
When desire disagrees with judgment, there is a disease of the mind: and to make a man forget the past, and blind him to the future, is as easy as making him drunk. The impression of invincibility is disaster itself. The stronger the illusion, the greater the fall.”
– Barbara Tuchman, The March of Folly
With our most reliable stock market valuation measures at the highest extremes in U.S. history, record negative readings on our most reliable “equity risk premium” gauge (estimated S&P 500 total returns vs. Treasury yields), and the narrowest junk bond risk premiums in history, it’s useful for investors to remember that a market crash is nothing but risk-aversion meeting a market that is not priced to tolerate risk.
Emphatically, nothing in our investment discipline relies on a market collapse, or even a reversion of valuations to levels anywhere near historical norms. Particularly with the hedging implementation we introduced last September, I expect it will be enough simply for the market to fluctuate.
By definition, diagonal advances amid record valuation extremes – as we’ve seen in recent weeks – don’t provide much fluctuation. Still, we’ve been able to vary the intensity of our bearishness enough to be comfortable even if the market advances further from current extremes.
As I emphasized last month, all the adaptations we’ve made in this bubble have served one objective: to restore our strategic flexibility even amid market conditions that rivaled the most extreme instances in history. The reason for my irrepressible enthusiasm about last September’s hedging implementation was that it cleanly added a fresh degree of freedom – allowing us to systematically vary the intensity of our hedge positions even in the most extreme market conditions.
That enthusiasm has continued to be well-placed – not only since last September, but even during the roughly 3% advance in the S&P 500 since its mid-February high. For more on that hedging implementation, see Asking a Better Question, Subsets and Sensibility, and the section titled “The Martian” in The Turtle and the Pendulum.
The core of our discipline remains straightforward: to align our investment stance with prevailing, measurable, observable market conditions, and to change our investment stance as those conditions change. No forecasts or scenarios are required.
Valuation Review
You can’t possibly call a bubble or a bust to the right day, except once every several lifetimes. What you can do, though, is to identify bubbles that eventually burst.
That turns out, in the past to have been intellectually pretty straightforward. You can measure them, and all of them eventually go back to trend. And that movement from very high back to trend has always made cash look very much better for quite a few years. These are not insignificantly long periods of time. They add up to half of all the time.
In terms of a historian, I put a lot of weight on 1929, I think it’s a wonderful example. Japan of course, the mother of all of them. It would be highly unlikely for this one to not be similar, and at or around several years in the future, 5, 10, even 15, it’s highly likely – from a historical point of view – you’ll reach a point where you would have rather been in cash.”
– Jeremy Grantham, GMO, The Master Investor with Wilfred Frost, July 10, 2025
The chart below shows our most reliable gauge of market valuations in data since 1928: the ratio of nonfinancial market capitalization to gross value-added (MarketCap/GVA). Gross value-added is the sum of corporate revenues generated incrementally at each stage of production, so MarketCap/GVA might be reasonably be viewed as an economy-wide, apples-to-apples price/revenue multiple for U.S. nonfinancial corporations.
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When I say “reliable” in the context of valuation measures, risk-premium gauges, and so forth, I’m referring to their correlation with actual, subsequent market outcomes across history. Valuation gauges and risk-premium measures are a dime-a-dozen on Wall Street. What matters is whether they’re coherent from the standpoint of the underlying discounted cash flow relationships, and most important, whether they’re strongly correlated with subsequent outcomes. It’s distressing how many measures fail miserably on that basis (including the very common practice of equating the equity risk premium with the S&P 500 forward earnings yield minus the 10-year Treasury yield).
We typically use both 10-year and 12-year returns in our valuation work – the 10-year horizon is a common convention, but the 12-year horizon our preference, since statistically, that’s the point where valuations at one period tend to become uncorrelated with valuations at a later date (mathematically, it’s the point where the autocorrelation profile hits zero). So “mean-reversion” tends to have its most reliable impact on a 12-year horizon. That’s another way of saying that valuations aren’t a short-term timing tool. They have profound implications for long-term returns, but over shorter horizons, other factors, particularly investor psychology, are more important. That’s why the uniformity or divergence of market internals – unfavorable at present – is also essential to monitor.
The scatter below shows the relationship between MarketCap/GVA and actual subsequent 12-year S&P 500 average annual total returns, in data since 1928. There are certainly “outliers” where actual returns were up and away from the tighter scatter. Those “outliers” typically reflect 12-year horizons when the endpoint of the horizon occurred at speculative valuation levels like 2000 and today. Still, even a very large positive outlier in the coming years would imply weak expected returns from these levels. There’s no 12-year return associated with the current instance, because across a century of market cycles, valuations have never been this extreme.
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To put the current valuation extreme in perspective, the chart below shows our estimate of 12-year S&P 500 total returns over-and-above Treasury yields. This is the most reliable estimate of the “equity risk premium” that we have examined or developed, and is better correlated with actual subsequent outcomes than the “Fed Model” (S&P 500 operating earnings yield – the Treasury yield), the “Excess CAPE Yield” of Shiller, Black, and Jirav, and annual estimates produced by Aswath Damodaran, all whose work I admire even when I might disagree.
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The chart below shows the level of the S&P 500 that we associate with varying levels of the equity risk premium. The yellow bubbles show points when our estimate of the likely 10-year equity risk-premium has been negative (that is, expected S&P 500 nominal total returns less than 10-year Treasury yields).
Notice the brackets below prior instances when the estimated risk premium was negative. Perhaps not surprisingly, the total return of the S&P 500 lagged Treasury bonds from 1929-1950, 1968-1987, and the 22-year stretch from 1998 to 2020 (3/23/98-3/23/20: 5.27% vs 5.32% annually), among other sub-periods. That’s 62 years of the 96-year period since 1929 – nearly two-thirds of history. That’s even worse than the “half of all the time” that Grantham mentioned, because in this case we’re looking at periods where stocks simply lagged Treasury bonds, not where S&P 500 total returns fell short of an even lower bar such as T-bills, inflation, or zero.
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The mindset of investors here seems to be that “risk is a construct” rather than something that’s ever actually realized as deep and durable losses. You can see this mindset at play in the spread between junk bond yields and Treasury yields, which is at record lows.
Some part of the spread may be owed to concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation as well, so we can’t draw a pure signal, but when you’ve got equity valuations at record highs and junk spreads at record lows, the joint inference is that investors are pricing securities with little concern for risk. That’s particularly dangerous, given that our key gauge of market internals continues to suggest underlying vulnerability in investor psychology toward speculation versus risk-aversion.
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The thin, volatile blue line in the chart below essentially gauges how closely the present “cluster” of market conditions matches those observed at intermediate and major peaks and troughs in the S&P 500 across history. Both our cluster correlation and cluster proximity scores can range from -1 to 1. Perfect correlation with peaks (+1) and perfect negative correlation with troughs (-1) gives a maximum differential of 1- (-1) = 2. So the sum of these two measures ranges from -4 to +4.
The red line is the S&P 500 (right scale, log), and the thin yellow line is MarketCap/GVA (log) scaled from -4 to +4. It’s at that +4 level here.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wp-cont.../mc250720f.png
You’ll notice a very brief downward spike in the differential during April. The hedging implementation we introduced last September gave us a nice opportunity there, even though market conditions came nowhere close to what one would typically see at an intermediate/cyclical bottom. Presently, we’re again just shy of the most extreme levels in history.
Any widening in dispersion across breadth (advances vs declines) or leadership (new highs vs new lows) would likely push the differential to an even more extreme level. Among the things to monitor in daily data include sessions when a) the S&P 500 index is up but breadth is down, b) when both highs and lows account for more than about 2.5% of issues traded, or c) when a leadership reversal occurs, with more daily new lows than new highs.
Given the extremes that are already in place, that sort of increasing dispersion would typically be followed by a quick air-pocket on the order of a 6-12% market decline over a handful of days. The first line down tends to be vertical. Not a forecast, just an observation.
In our daily tally of warning flags, Friday generated one of my favorites – “Syndrome 74” which I discussed at length in the February comment The Government Deficits Land in the Deepest Pockets. As it happened, the February 18th instance was the day before the mid-February high. While the S&P 500 now stands about 3% above that peak, we’ve clearly been satisfied with our own discipline since then.
As usual, I view this type of syndrome as a “weak sensor” – best used in composites that include scores of them. We’ve certainly got lots of these active here, so we’re again at one of those “Motherlode” moments. Not a forecast, none required.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wp-cont.../mc250720g.png
Presuming profits promise permanent prosperity
My impression is that the exuberance of the moment is too strong for investors to care about history. As is true in every bubble, investors are undoubtedly convinced that we’re in a new era to which history doesn’t apply. Simply observe corporate profit margins, for example, and the fact that they haven’t eroded in years, and it’s natural to imagine that they’ve simply established permanent highs beyond all historical experience.
Nothing in our investment discipline relies on mean reversion in profit margins or valuations, but the fact is that U.S. productivity growth since 2000 has been slower, not faster, than during the previous century. Investors have conflated elevated profits with technology, innovation, and hand-wavy features of a “new era.” Yet the reality is that record U.S. corporate profits and free cash flows over the past two decades have directly relied on the distortions created by “free money” policies.
Those “free money” policies include not only fiscal deficits, but monetary policy that – for much of the past decade – funded those deficits by flooding the economy with zero-interest cash, which also significantly reduced corporate interest costs. That’s where the record profits have come from. It’s not a theory. It’s an accounting identity.
The expansion in corporate free cash flow (profits minus net investment) in recent decades is the mirror image of expanding deficits in other sectors – mainly larger deficits of government, and deficits among working families who find it difficult to save as labor compensation has increasingly lagged labor productivity. That’s how the accounting works. When we look at record corporate profits, we have to remember that the “deficit” of one sector (consumption and net investment in excess of income) always emerges as the “surplus” of another.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wp-cont.../mc250720h.png
Likewise, as I observed last month (see the section titled “The deficits of one sector emerge as the surplus of another”) the main drivers of the record U.S. federal debt/GDP ratio haven’t been Medicaid, or supplementary nutrition programs, or aid to the most vulnerable among us. No – the debt has advanced in clear, discrete spikes, driven by repeated “one off” government crisis responses and fiscal free-for-alls.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wp-cont.../mc250720j.png
Notice that despite growing corporate profits as a share of GDP, net domestic business investment has been progressively shrinking as a share of GDP. At best, we’ve seen a nice little pop in net investment over the past few years. It’s not earth-shaking, but it’s not nothing. Investment in AI, chips, and related infrastructure has been running about 1% of GDP annually – roughly $300 billion annually in recent years. When you hear about the frenzy of investment driven by AI, that’s roughly the scale. It’s important, but corporate investment is still far smaller as a share of GDP than historical norms.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wp-cont.../mc250720k.png
It’s true that a disproportionate share of U.S. corporate profits currently benefit a handful of large companies, but the entire history of U.S. economic growth is made of no other substance than the constant introduction of “new eras.” For more on this point, see The Turtle and the Pendulum.
Remember also that despite the emergence of the internet, smart phones, networking, cloud computing, and countless other technological breakthroughs in recent decades, S&P 500 revenues, corporate profits, and GDP have grown slower, not faster, than in the decades prior to 2000. We forget. In the exuberance of this moment, the S&P 500 information technology index is priced at valuations that embed, and now require, a permanently high plateau in profit margins and growth rates.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wp-cont.../mc250720m.png
Yet even for market leaders, the boom in AI investment will have consequences that will likely disappoint the extrapolation of profits that investors seem to rely on. As Grantham recently observed, “The spending programs of the seven great companies – each company is like a medium sized country. AI has sucked all seven in, and that means competition. The history of the Mag-7 is divided into two halves. The half up until now where basically they each individually owned an area, and the half going forward, where they increasingly fight it out tooth and nail to see who is the biggest and best in AI. Their paths will not be as smooth as they were in the past.”
Investors have conflated elevated profits with technology, innovation, and hand-wavy features of a ‘new era.’ Yet the reality is that record U.S. corporate profits and free cash flows over the past two decades have directly relied on the distortions created by ‘free money’ policies.
Those ‘free money’ policies include not only fiscal deficits, but monetary policy that – for much of the past decade – funded those deficits by flooding the economy with zero-interest cash, which also significantly reduced corporate interest costs. That’s where the record profits have come from. It’s not a theory. It’s an accounting identity.
From an economic perspective, neither the extension of low corporate tax rates, nor a redistribution of wealth favoring the highest 10% of income earners is likely to do much for U.S. economic growth prospects. The reason is simple – they don’t relieve any constraint that was previously binding. Even as corporate profit margins have pushed to record levels, corporations have devoted progressively less of those earnings to net capital formation, aside from the recent, fairly modest AI-related pop.
As I’ve often noted over the years, the best economic policies act to ease some binding constraint on productive economic activity, address coordination failures, or create incentives or disincentives toward activities that have positive or negative spillovers for the nation as a whole. Otherwise, the policy effect is purely distributional – someone benefits at a loss to someone else.
The same argument holds for deregulation: if it reduces binding constraints, and enhances competition and reduces deadweight losses, there can be clear benefits. In contrast, if deregulation simply removes protections in a way that allows individuals or companies to engage in activities that have negative spillovers on others without bearing the cost – the impact of deregulation is purely distributional. Since monopolies create deadweight losses except when the monopolies can price-discriminate between consumers (in which case the monopoly gets all the surplus) or are regulated to “simulate” competitive outcomes, deregulation that encourages monopoly is net negative – any benefits are distributional.
Equally important, the effect of a one-dollar shift in the wealth distribution isn’t actually one-for-one. Since the incremental benefit of an extra dollar to a very wealthy individual is far smaller than the incremental benefit of an extra dollar to someone who has very little, a redistribution toward those who are well-off imposes a pure loss to the aggregate well-being of the country. The wider the distribution of wealth was originally, the larger that aggregate loss will be.
That’s not an argument for policies that target income equality, but it’s certainly a consideration when the redistribution worsens the condition of the working poor and those who already bear the greatest burdens of our shared humanity.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wp-cont.../mc250720n.png
The budget legislation passed in recent weeks is scored by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office as providing $3.1 trillion in tax cuts and refundable credits over the coming decade, partially funded by $1 trillion in cuts to Medicaid, SNAP (supplementary nutrition assistance for the poor) and related programs. About $1.4 trillion of that net $2.1 trillion benefits the wealthiest 10% of households, while the bottom 10% will lose about $187 billion over the coming decade (each group about 13 million households).
The provision in recent legislation that’s most friendly to net capital formation is the expansion of bonus depreciation, scored by the Congressional Budget Office with an expected cost of $184.5 billion over the coming decade. As always, I tend to be very supportive of provisions that encourage net capital formation, because it has important spillover benefits for the economy. But relative to the overall impact, it’s a minor feature of the recent bill.
Overall, our economic outlook is largely unchanged. Our most reliable economic measures continue to hover at levels that have historically defined the threshold of recession. That’s not a forecast, and nothing in our discipline relies on an economic downturn, but we can’t clearly rule that out even during 2025.
Brief update – Treasury bonds and precious metals
In my view, Treasury bond yields continue to be adequate relative to even simple benchmarks that have historically been useful in identifying periods when Treasury bonds have outperformed T-bills over time, on average.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wp-cont.../mc250720p.png
Likewise, our view regarding precious metals stocks continues to be relatively positive, though we would be more aggressive if the relatively tepid condition of the economy was coupled with explicitly falling Treasury yields (even, say, on a 6-month lookback). Meanwhile, remember that precious metals shares tend to have significant short-term volatility. We use them largely as a complement to Treasury securities, as a limited share of our bond-focused investment discipline. That’s served us quite well for decades.
Overall, then, the stock market stands at the highest level of valuations in U.S. history, easily eclipsing the extremes of 1929 and 2000. Investors have clearly placed a great deal of confidence in these elevated valuations as a result of elevated corporate profits (a historically disastrous form of double-counting). Yet from the standpoint of economic accounting, these profits inherently reflect the impact of two decades of “free money,” largely driven by crisis-related spending free-for-alls that produced discrete spikes in the debt/GDP ratio.
It’s tempting to paraphrase Herbert Stein – “things that are unsustainable tend not to be sustained.” Then again, I suspect many of us thought this dumpster fire was unsustainable a long time ago.
As usual, we don’t need to rely on any directional forecast at all. It’s enough to observe that the likely return investors can expect for taking risk, both in stocks and low-grade bonds, stands at the lowest level in history – based on measures that we find best correlated with returns across a century of market cycles.
A market crash is nothing but risk-aversion meeting a market that’s not priced to tolerate risk. Still, we don’t need that sort of outcome. For our part, I expect that our investment discipline will be perfectly content simply for the market to fluctuate over time.
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- #15,228
- Jul 21, 2025 9:48am Jul 21, 2025 9:48am
- | Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts
July 21, 2025
“Wrecking Ball” Trump Demands Jail For “The Shady Bunch” Coup Plot Leader Obama
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers
A compelling new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today first noting President Donald Trump stunned the world last evening when he posted mugshots of what he branded “The Shady Bunch”, who are the coup plotters still trying to destroy him, says he then set the internet on fire by posting an AI video of FBI agents arresting and throwing in jail former President Barack Obama.
Three days ago on Friday, this report notes, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard declassified Russia hoax documents then announced that “The Shady Bunch” coup plotters were all refereed to the Department of Justice for criminal prosecution, and it was revealed: “The declassified documents proved Barack Obama worked with his national security team and Deep State hacks such as Susan Rice, John Brennan, James Comey, Clapper and others to manufacture intelligence and push the lies through the fake news media”.
Yesterday, this report continues, DNI Gabbard declared to Fox News host Maria Bartiromo about “The Shady Bunch” coup plot: “We will be releasing more detailed information about how exactly this took place, and the extent to which this information was sought to be hidden from the American people, hidden from officials who would be in a position to do something about it...Accountability is essential for the future of our country, for the American people to have any sense of trust in the integrity of our democratic republic”, and it was also revealed in the interview:
Maria Bartiromo:
Do you believe that we will see prosecutions? Our audience wants to know where this story goes from here. Will we ever see anyone held accountable for this incredible lie on the American people?
Tulsi Gabbard:
I will do all that I can. We have whistleblowers, actually, Maria, coming forward now after we release these documents, because there are people who were around—who were working within the intelligence community at this time—who were so disgusted by what happened. We’re starting to see some of them come out of the woodwork here because they, too, like you and I and the American people, want to see justice delivered.
We’re going to provide everything that we have—everything that we will continue to gather—to the Department of Justice for that direct intent and that direct purpose. There must be indictments. Those responsible, no matter how powerful they are or were at that time, no matter who was involved in creating this treasonous conspiracy against the American people—they all must be held accountable.
Maria Bartiromo:
So do you expect—just to be clear—do you expect indictments and prosecutions?
Tulsi Gabbard:
I’m not a lawyer. In my view, we have the evidence to be able to move forward and bring about justice. Yes—to prosecute and indict those responsible.
Also yesterday, this report details, socialist Democrat Party lawmaker Congressman Jim Himes raged to leftist CBS News in sheer panic: “What you saw from the Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, was not just a lie, but a very dangerous lie, because when you start throwing around language like sedition and treason, somebody is going to get hurt...And right now, you know, the mouth-breathers on MAGA online are just going out of their minds based on a lie”—but was a panicked attack against MAGA “mouth-breathers” followed by top socialist Democrat Party strategist James Carville observing in shame today: “Constipated...Leaderless...Confused...A cracked-out clown car...Divided...These are the words I hear my fellow Democrats using to describe our party as of late...The truth is they’re not wrong...The Democratic Party is in shambles”.
On Saturday evening, this report concludes, American political analyst Ada Nestor released his open letter “The Desperation To Stop Trump Wasn't Political, It Was Survival”, wherein he most factually observed: “The effort to sabotage Trump’s presidency—before he even took office—was not about protecting democracy...It was about protecting the machine...It’s not enough to say they hated Trump...That’s the surface-level distraction they fed the public - tweets, tone, ego...But behind closed doors, the political elite weren’t clutching their pearls over Trump's behavior...They were panicking over what he might expose” and truthfully documented:
Bush Sr.: The Architect
George H.W. Bush didn’t just serve as CIA Director, he was one of the architects of modern intelligence-led shadow governance. Under his watch, the United States expanded covert operations globally, often under the guise of national security. These operations weren’t just about foreign policy. They included drug trafficking (see: Iran-Contra), money laundering, and manipulation of foreign elections. They funded black budget programs and off-the-books deals.
The Bush family’s ties to global banking, oil, and weapons aren’t speculation, they’re documented. But scrutiny was always dismissed as conspiracy theory. Why?
Because the machine controlled the narrative.
Clinton: The Cleaner
Bill Clinton’s administration refined the art of corruption and cover-up. From the Mena Airport drug running scandal to the Chinagate campaign finance scandal, corruption was a feature—not a bug—of his presidency. The Clintons cashed in on global influence and built the Clinton Foundation into a pay-to-play leviathan.
Meanwhile, the intelligence community continued to expand its reach, especially into domestic surveillance—setting the stage for what would come next.
Bush Jr.: The Enabler
Under George W. Bush, 9/11 became the catalyst for exponential growth in surveillance, control, and unaccountable government authority. The Patriot Act opened the door to mass data collection on Americans. Wars were launched on false pretenses. Trillions disappeared. And no one was held accountable.
Cheney’s shadow presidency empowered defense contractors and intelligence contractors like never before. Black sites. Torture programs. Secret kill lists.
The Constitution was paper to these people. The machine kept rolling, unchecked.
Obama: The Cover
Barack Obama ran on transparency and hope. What he delivered was the most refined form of managed decline in U.S. history. Whistleblowers were prosecuted. The IRS was weaponized. The media was co-opted. And the intelligence community was turned inward, not to protect Americans, but to protect itself.
Obama didn’t just look the other way on corruption, he institutionalized it. The “scandal-free” administration was anything but. Benghazi. Fast and Furious. Unmasking of political enemies. Spygate. The Steele Dossier. All of it swept under the rug by a complicit press corps and weaponized DOJ.
Enter Trump: The Wrecking Ball
Then came Trump. He wasn’t in their club. He didn’t play by the rules. Worse, he didn’t need them. And that made him dangerous.
Trump wasn’t just another politician. He was a liability to their entire system. He talked openly about child trafficking, shadowy networks, corrupt intelligence officials, and globalist agendas. He signed executive orders freezing assets of human rights abusers. He bypassed traditional media. He disrupted the military-industrial complex.
The machine couldn’t afford to let that continue.
So they deployed everything—illegal surveillance, fabricated dossiers, coordinated leaks, a media smear campaign, a weaponized intelligence community, and, eventually, a multi-year lawfare operation.
This wasn’t politics. This was survival for them.
[Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]
https://www.whatdoesitmean.com/pto21.png
https://www.whatdoesitmean.com/pto22.png
July 21, 2025
EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition it is linked to its original source at WhatDoesItMean.Com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.
[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ has been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exampled in numerous places, including HERE.]
[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green (1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]
[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]
World Warned Imminent Black Swan Event Will Ignite The Unthinkable
Rebel Alliance Leader With “All Seeing Eye” Unleashed By Trump To Find Antichrist
Return To Main Page
“Wrecking Ball” Trump Demands Jail For “The Shady Bunch” Coup Plot Leader Obama
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers
A compelling new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today first noting President Donald Trump stunned the world last evening when he posted mugshots of what he branded “The Shady Bunch”, who are the coup plotters still trying to destroy him, says he then set the internet on fire by posting an AI video of FBI agents arresting and throwing in jail former President Barack Obama.
Three days ago on Friday, this report notes, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard declassified Russia hoax documents then announced that “The Shady Bunch” coup plotters were all refereed to the Department of Justice for criminal prosecution, and it was revealed: “The declassified documents proved Barack Obama worked with his national security team and Deep State hacks such as Susan Rice, John Brennan, James Comey, Clapper and others to manufacture intelligence and push the lies through the fake news media”.
Yesterday, this report continues, DNI Gabbard declared to Fox News host Maria Bartiromo about “The Shady Bunch” coup plot: “We will be releasing more detailed information about how exactly this took place, and the extent to which this information was sought to be hidden from the American people, hidden from officials who would be in a position to do something about it...Accountability is essential for the future of our country, for the American people to have any sense of trust in the integrity of our democratic republic”, and it was also revealed in the interview:
Maria Bartiromo:
Do you believe that we will see prosecutions? Our audience wants to know where this story goes from here. Will we ever see anyone held accountable for this incredible lie on the American people?
Tulsi Gabbard:
I will do all that I can. We have whistleblowers, actually, Maria, coming forward now after we release these documents, because there are people who were around—who were working within the intelligence community at this time—who were so disgusted by what happened. We’re starting to see some of them come out of the woodwork here because they, too, like you and I and the American people, want to see justice delivered.
We’re going to provide everything that we have—everything that we will continue to gather—to the Department of Justice for that direct intent and that direct purpose. There must be indictments. Those responsible, no matter how powerful they are or were at that time, no matter who was involved in creating this treasonous conspiracy against the American people—they all must be held accountable.
Maria Bartiromo:
So do you expect—just to be clear—do you expect indictments and prosecutions?
Tulsi Gabbard:
I’m not a lawyer. In my view, we have the evidence to be able to move forward and bring about justice. Yes—to prosecute and indict those responsible.
Also yesterday, this report details, socialist Democrat Party lawmaker Congressman Jim Himes raged to leftist CBS News in sheer panic: “What you saw from the Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, was not just a lie, but a very dangerous lie, because when you start throwing around language like sedition and treason, somebody is going to get hurt...And right now, you know, the mouth-breathers on MAGA online are just going out of their minds based on a lie”—but was a panicked attack against MAGA “mouth-breathers” followed by top socialist Democrat Party strategist James Carville observing in shame today: “Constipated...Leaderless...Confused...A cracked-out clown car...Divided...These are the words I hear my fellow Democrats using to describe our party as of late...The truth is they’re not wrong...The Democratic Party is in shambles”.
On Saturday evening, this report concludes, American political analyst Ada Nestor released his open letter “The Desperation To Stop Trump Wasn't Political, It Was Survival”, wherein he most factually observed: “The effort to sabotage Trump’s presidency—before he even took office—was not about protecting democracy...It was about protecting the machine...It’s not enough to say they hated Trump...That’s the surface-level distraction they fed the public - tweets, tone, ego...But behind closed doors, the political elite weren’t clutching their pearls over Trump's behavior...They were panicking over what he might expose” and truthfully documented:
Bush Sr.: The Architect
George H.W. Bush didn’t just serve as CIA Director, he was one of the architects of modern intelligence-led shadow governance. Under his watch, the United States expanded covert operations globally, often under the guise of national security. These operations weren’t just about foreign policy. They included drug trafficking (see: Iran-Contra), money laundering, and manipulation of foreign elections. They funded black budget programs and off-the-books deals.
The Bush family’s ties to global banking, oil, and weapons aren’t speculation, they’re documented. But scrutiny was always dismissed as conspiracy theory. Why?
Because the machine controlled the narrative.
Clinton: The Cleaner
Bill Clinton’s administration refined the art of corruption and cover-up. From the Mena Airport drug running scandal to the Chinagate campaign finance scandal, corruption was a feature—not a bug—of his presidency. The Clintons cashed in on global influence and built the Clinton Foundation into a pay-to-play leviathan.
Meanwhile, the intelligence community continued to expand its reach, especially into domestic surveillance—setting the stage for what would come next.
Bush Jr.: The Enabler
Under George W. Bush, 9/11 became the catalyst for exponential growth in surveillance, control, and unaccountable government authority. The Patriot Act opened the door to mass data collection on Americans. Wars were launched on false pretenses. Trillions disappeared. And no one was held accountable.
Cheney’s shadow presidency empowered defense contractors and intelligence contractors like never before. Black sites. Torture programs. Secret kill lists.
The Constitution was paper to these people. The machine kept rolling, unchecked.
Obama: The Cover
Barack Obama ran on transparency and hope. What he delivered was the most refined form of managed decline in U.S. history. Whistleblowers were prosecuted. The IRS was weaponized. The media was co-opted. And the intelligence community was turned inward, not to protect Americans, but to protect itself.
Obama didn’t just look the other way on corruption, he institutionalized it. The “scandal-free” administration was anything but. Benghazi. Fast and Furious. Unmasking of political enemies. Spygate. The Steele Dossier. All of it swept under the rug by a complicit press corps and weaponized DOJ.
Enter Trump: The Wrecking Ball
Then came Trump. He wasn’t in their club. He didn’t play by the rules. Worse, he didn’t need them. And that made him dangerous.
Trump wasn’t just another politician. He was a liability to their entire system. He talked openly about child trafficking, shadowy networks, corrupt intelligence officials, and globalist agendas. He signed executive orders freezing assets of human rights abusers. He bypassed traditional media. He disrupted the military-industrial complex.
The machine couldn’t afford to let that continue.
So they deployed everything—illegal surveillance, fabricated dossiers, coordinated leaks, a media smear campaign, a weaponized intelligence community, and, eventually, a multi-year lawfare operation.
This wasn’t politics. This was survival for them.
[Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]
https://www.whatdoesitmean.com/pto21.png
https://www.whatdoesitmean.com/pto22.png
July 21, 2025
[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ has been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exampled in numerous places, including HERE.]
[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green (1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]
[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]
World Warned Imminent Black Swan Event Will Ignite The Unthinkable
Rebel Alliance Leader With “All Seeing Eye” Unleashed By Trump To Find Antichrist
Return To Main Page
- #15,229
- Jul 22, 2025 4:44am Jul 22, 2025 4:44am
- | Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts
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By Adam Sharp
Posted
July 21, 2025
The Untold Story Behind Silver’s 30x Move
In 1970, silver traded at around $1.60 per ounce. By its peak in 1980, it reached $49.45. A handsome 30x return.
The story of how it got there is full of intrigue and conspiracy. We’ll get to that. But first, a little background is in order.
Monetary demand for silver had collapsed after the U.S. and other countries stopped using it in coins in 1965. Before that, America’s dimes and quarters were 90% silver. Other countries soon followed suit.
After governments ended their silver coinage, the market was flooded with stockpiles of the metal. Savvy collectors also bought up silver coins and melted them down. This temporarily boosted supply and depressed the price.
But inflation, and demand for hard money, was quietly building. In 1971 Nixon terminated the gold standard. From that point on, fiat money was completely free from the restraints of hard assets.
The dollar was no longer convertible to gold by foreign governments, and our coins were now made of copper and nickel rather than valuable silver.
Cornering the Market
Enter three brothers: William, Lamar, and Nelson Hunt. The three were sons of oil tycoon H.L. Hunt.
The brothers had substantial wealth, and were getting concerned over the effects fiat money would have on the United States.
They believed silver was criminally undervalued. In 1970, when silver was around $1.50 per ounce, they began to build a position.
First, they bought bullion and stored it in vaults. Eventually the brothers got more aggressive, buying silver futures contracts, using leverage liberally.
By 1974 silver reached $6.40/oz. But then it entered a brief bear market, falling back to as low as $3.80.
The Hunt Brothers bought the dip aggressively. But by the end of 1977, the price of silver had barely budged. It was stuck around $4.90 by the end of the year. At the end of 1978, the price was around $6.20.
By this point, government stockpiles were largely exhausted. The U.S. government had sold a remarkable 3 billion ounces of silver.
Precious metals were no longer part of the monetary system, but individuals began to create their own personal hard-money policies by buying silver and gold. And of course, the Hunt brothers were buying and holding all the while.
In 1979, silver absolutely exploded higher. The price rose from around $6/oz to $25/oz.
https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1...1-07-21-25.png
Source: SD Bullion
By January 1980, things had gone completely bonkers. Silver doubled in price again, from $25 to nearly $50. That was the peak for that cycle.
The Hunt brothers certainly played a big role in this runup, but their role is often exaggerated. It’s no coincidence that inflation peaked around 14% in 1979. It wasn’t just speculation driving the price higher.
Americans were desperate to find an asset that would protect their wealth. Silver fit the bill nicely.
The Fall
All told, the Hunt Brothers acquired roughly 200 million ounces of silver via bullion and futures. Ultimately it was the futures contracts which would be their downfall.
The brothers bought vast quantities of silver futures on the COMEX exchange. This allowed them to buy huge amounts of silver with relatively little capital.
But in 1980, the COMEX put the slap down on their operation. With silver around $50, the exchange made a drastic move. They declared that traders could no longer buy silver contracts. They could only sell or liquidate.
COMEX also raised margin requirements for silver contracts. This forced the brothers to put up more cash, fueling a margin call cascade.
It was a complete disaster for silver longs. Silver crashed from $49.45 to $16 by the end of 1980.
The Hunt brothers were sued by regulators and lost the majority of their fortune. All because they wanted more “juice” in their position.
A Better Silver Squeeze
The Hunt brothers take the blame for the silver bubble, but in truth they were part of a larger movement.
They weren’t the only ones who loved hard money and despised fiat currency. The 1970s silver squeeze was, in truth, far more decentralized than it is portrayed in pop culture.
The mistake the Hunt Brothers made was getting involved in futures contracts with leverage. COMEX, and other futures exchanges, can change the rules at any time.
It says so in their terms of service.
In some ways, the Hunt Brothers caused the bubble and the crash. Without their involvement, silver would likely have taken a much smoother and more sustainable path.
The next silver squeeze will not be accomplished using silver futures or margin. It will be accomplished by millions of individuals who are fed up with fiat money buying physical silver bullion.
Physical silver cannot be manipulated like futures contracts. Unless the government restricts the buying and selling of silver bullion, which is highly unlikely, there’s not much they can do.
Silver bulls should continue to buy and accumulate silver bullion (and high-quality physical ETFs like the Sprott Physical Silver Trust – PSLV). This next silver squeeze will be driven by demand for the real thing. Not paper speculation.
Today silver remains well below its 1980 and 2011 highs near $50. Even as we are entering a period which will undoubtedly be chaotic and full of money printing, silver remains dirt cheap.
My price target for silver is $120 by 2028. Mined silver is barely growing, and recycling remains sluggish.
Meanwhile demand from industrial users has never been higher, and is only set to grow. Every year the market gobbles up around 160 million ounces more than is produced.
Investment demand is just beginning to wake up, and will surely grow over coming years. This is set to be the real difference maker in the supply/demand equation.
Eventually the stocks of above-ground silver will dry up. And when that happens, a $120 price target might look conservative.
It’s an explosive setup. So we believe the bull market in silver has only just begun.
New readers and those who wish to read more can find more of our silver coverage below:
https://dweaay7e22a7h.cloudfront.net.../AdamSharp.jpg
By Adam Sharp
Posted
July 21, 2025
The Untold Story Behind Silver’s 30x Move
In 1970, silver traded at around $1.60 per ounce. By its peak in 1980, it reached $49.45. A handsome 30x return.
The story of how it got there is full of intrigue and conspiracy. We’ll get to that. But first, a little background is in order.
Monetary demand for silver had collapsed after the U.S. and other countries stopped using it in coins in 1965. Before that, America’s dimes and quarters were 90% silver. Other countries soon followed suit.
After governments ended their silver coinage, the market was flooded with stockpiles of the metal. Savvy collectors also bought up silver coins and melted them down. This temporarily boosted supply and depressed the price.
But inflation, and demand for hard money, was quietly building. In 1971 Nixon terminated the gold standard. From that point on, fiat money was completely free from the restraints of hard assets.
The dollar was no longer convertible to gold by foreign governments, and our coins were now made of copper and nickel rather than valuable silver.
Cornering the Market
Enter three brothers: William, Lamar, and Nelson Hunt. The three were sons of oil tycoon H.L. Hunt.
The brothers had substantial wealth, and were getting concerned over the effects fiat money would have on the United States.
They believed silver was criminally undervalued. In 1970, when silver was around $1.50 per ounce, they began to build a position.
First, they bought bullion and stored it in vaults. Eventually the brothers got more aggressive, buying silver futures contracts, using leverage liberally.
By 1974 silver reached $6.40/oz. But then it entered a brief bear market, falling back to as low as $3.80.
The Hunt Brothers bought the dip aggressively. But by the end of 1977, the price of silver had barely budged. It was stuck around $4.90 by the end of the year. At the end of 1978, the price was around $6.20.
By this point, government stockpiles were largely exhausted. The U.S. government had sold a remarkable 3 billion ounces of silver.
Precious metals were no longer part of the monetary system, but individuals began to create their own personal hard-money policies by buying silver and gold. And of course, the Hunt brothers were buying and holding all the while.
In 1979, silver absolutely exploded higher. The price rose from around $6/oz to $25/oz.
https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1...1-07-21-25.png
Source: SD Bullion
By January 1980, things had gone completely bonkers. Silver doubled in price again, from $25 to nearly $50. That was the peak for that cycle.
The Hunt brothers certainly played a big role in this runup, but their role is often exaggerated. It’s no coincidence that inflation peaked around 14% in 1979. It wasn’t just speculation driving the price higher.
Americans were desperate to find an asset that would protect their wealth. Silver fit the bill nicely.
The Fall
All told, the Hunt Brothers acquired roughly 200 million ounces of silver via bullion and futures. Ultimately it was the futures contracts which would be their downfall.
The brothers bought vast quantities of silver futures on the COMEX exchange. This allowed them to buy huge amounts of silver with relatively little capital.
But in 1980, the COMEX put the slap down on their operation. With silver around $50, the exchange made a drastic move. They declared that traders could no longer buy silver contracts. They could only sell or liquidate.
COMEX also raised margin requirements for silver contracts. This forced the brothers to put up more cash, fueling a margin call cascade.
It was a complete disaster for silver longs. Silver crashed from $49.45 to $16 by the end of 1980.
The Hunt brothers were sued by regulators and lost the majority of their fortune. All because they wanted more “juice” in their position.
A Better Silver Squeeze
The Hunt brothers take the blame for the silver bubble, but in truth they were part of a larger movement.
They weren’t the only ones who loved hard money and despised fiat currency. The 1970s silver squeeze was, in truth, far more decentralized than it is portrayed in pop culture.
The mistake the Hunt Brothers made was getting involved in futures contracts with leverage. COMEX, and other futures exchanges, can change the rules at any time.
It says so in their terms of service.
In some ways, the Hunt Brothers caused the bubble and the crash. Without their involvement, silver would likely have taken a much smoother and more sustainable path.
The next silver squeeze will not be accomplished using silver futures or margin. It will be accomplished by millions of individuals who are fed up with fiat money buying physical silver bullion.
Physical silver cannot be manipulated like futures contracts. Unless the government restricts the buying and selling of silver bullion, which is highly unlikely, there’s not much they can do.
Silver bulls should continue to buy and accumulate silver bullion (and high-quality physical ETFs like the Sprott Physical Silver Trust – PSLV). This next silver squeeze will be driven by demand for the real thing. Not paper speculation.
Today silver remains well below its 1980 and 2011 highs near $50. Even as we are entering a period which will undoubtedly be chaotic and full of money printing, silver remains dirt cheap.
My price target for silver is $120 by 2028. Mined silver is barely growing, and recycling remains sluggish.
Meanwhile demand from industrial users has never been higher, and is only set to grow. Every year the market gobbles up around 160 million ounces more than is produced.
Investment demand is just beginning to wake up, and will surely grow over coming years. This is set to be the real difference maker in the supply/demand equation.
Eventually the stocks of above-ground silver will dry up. And when that happens, a $120 price target might look conservative.
It’s an explosive setup. So we believe the bull market in silver has only just begun.
New readers and those who wish to read more can find more of our silver coverage below:
- Silver’s 3x Upside
- A Tale of Two Crashes
- Silver as a Hedge Against Market Chaos
- Silver: So Much Bigger than 2011
https://dweaay7e22a7h.cloudfront.net...5-225x125.jpeg
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
- #15,232
- Jul 22, 2025 7:11am Jul 22, 2025 7:11am
- | Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts
Inserted Video
- #15,233
- Jul 22, 2025 7:43am Jul 22, 2025 7:43am
- | Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts
Inserted Video
- #15,234
- Jul 22, 2025 8:27am Jul 22, 2025 8:27am
- | Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts
5 Minute Chart Dow 30
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=i5
You can reach me anytime 24/7 on my landline 1 819 275 7780
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
Please Click On Each Link !!!
The link below is our Website
www.avielforexlearningedge.com
The next link is a great FREE resource - All the commodities and CFDs
that trade in the world. Have a look !!! In Living Colour!!!
WWW.FINVIZ.COM
The next link is all the news in the world and all the blogs posting by the SECOND !!!
https://finviz.com/news.ashx?v=2
The next link is MOST IMPORTANT !!! A 5 Minute Chart Of Dow 30
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
Join our 90-day Forex trading course for 100.00 Canadian dollars. Send E Transfer to [email protected]
Thank You - AVIEL FOREX LEARNING EDGE CORPORATION
Each day around 8:30 AM to 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time, I determine whether we have RISK ON or RISK OFF.
There is no indicator that can do this just as no technical indicator can effectively predict what will happen moment to moment as one MAJOR fundamental fact whether GEOPOLITICAL or FINANCIAL or now SUPPLY CHAIN or some New Covid 19 variant can cause the markets to go down 500 points as the Dow 30 has been doing recently and will continue to do.
That is why my Unique Method of Forex trading developed during 2003 when I started trading Forex and later on during 2012 when I added to my business model and started teaching my unique 100% proven method of Money Flow trading.
It is no longer possible to trade without a STOP LOSS !!!
Having a STOP LOSS of fewer than 100 PIPS is not a good strategy. That leads me to explain why 95% of all Retail Forex Traders lose. They trade with small amounts of money and SCALP which makes it almost impossible to make profits over a period of one year because of the VIOLENT NATURE of the swings in the Asset Classes caused by world changing events.
Each Forex Trade that you do should not risk more than 2% of your trading Capital and that is based on trading Capital of $50,000 US Dollars INITIALLY learning on a $50,000 US Funds Demo account just as I did for a period of three years before I made my first Real Funds Trade. That was during 2003 on the SAXO Platform and my first trade with money under management at Trade Freedom in Montreal with $100,000 US dollars being managed for 6 c'ients under a LPOA mandate.
PLEASE GO WITH THE MONEY FLOW
Let us review what we teach and why it works if YOU WORK.
Without your WORK then you are just wasting your time and probably your money.
There is no such thing as Political Correctness here because we are here to teach and share our knowledge.
SO.... going back to our winning FORMULA for FOREX SUCCESS.
20% of the SUCCESS is yourself the Forex Trader.
20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE which we teach you and that is Money Flow Trading.
20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard earned money) Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear and greed. Of course we want to make sure that you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader so our course is for a period of three months, so we can teach you the right trading methods and we can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.
20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators which include not only the common ones. It includes the understanding of Supply and Demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points which you can see each day on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans which we also help you develop and explain WHY. These are our Winning Trade Plans that we review every three months or earlier if circumstances in the markets require that.
20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than Data Releases each day around the world. It includes reports and articles extremely well researched as you can clearly see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets especially in North America is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you then have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do and you are not surprised when events eventually unfold.
When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't trading, they're staring at screens and forcing trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business.
What makes a trader successful is discipline: doing the right thing with fidelity. What keeps a trader successful is innovation: doing new things and turning them into disciplines.
Thursday, September 25, 2014
A Preview of Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-4zHYD5MY44...teenbarger.jpg
One of the great disappointments I encounter when I read writings on the topic of trading psychology is that they invariably touch upon the same themes: discipline, controlling emotions, etc. Having worked with traders and portfolio managers for over a decade now, there is so much more to the psychology of trading than "sticking to your process" that I decided I had to write a book about what I was experiencing but wasn't reading. The title reflects that interest: Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=i5
You can reach me anytime 24/7 on my landline 1 819 275 7780
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
Please Click On Each Link !!!
The link below is our Website
www.avielforexlearningedge.com
The next link is a great FREE resource - All the commodities and CFDs
that trade in the world. Have a look !!! In Living Colour!!!
WWW.FINVIZ.COM
The next link is all the news in the world and all the blogs posting by the SECOND !!!
https://finviz.com/news.ashx?v=2
The next link is MOST IMPORTANT !!! A 5 Minute Chart Of Dow 30
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
Join our 90-day Forex trading course for 100.00 Canadian dollars. Send E Transfer to [email protected]
Thank You - AVIEL FOREX LEARNING EDGE CORPORATION
Each day around 8:30 AM to 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time, I determine whether we have RISK ON or RISK OFF.
There is no indicator that can do this just as no technical indicator can effectively predict what will happen moment to moment as one MAJOR fundamental fact whether GEOPOLITICAL or FINANCIAL or now SUPPLY CHAIN or some New Covid 19 variant can cause the markets to go down 500 points as the Dow 30 has been doing recently and will continue to do.
That is why my Unique Method of Forex trading developed during 2003 when I started trading Forex and later on during 2012 when I added to my business model and started teaching my unique 100% proven method of Money Flow trading.
It is no longer possible to trade without a STOP LOSS !!!
Having a STOP LOSS of fewer than 100 PIPS is not a good strategy. That leads me to explain why 95% of all Retail Forex Traders lose. They trade with small amounts of money and SCALP which makes it almost impossible to make profits over a period of one year because of the VIOLENT NATURE of the swings in the Asset Classes caused by world changing events.
Each Forex Trade that you do should not risk more than 2% of your trading Capital and that is based on trading Capital of $50,000 US Dollars INITIALLY learning on a $50,000 US Funds Demo account just as I did for a period of three years before I made my first Real Funds Trade. That was during 2003 on the SAXO Platform and my first trade with money under management at Trade Freedom in Montreal with $100,000 US dollars being managed for 6 c'ients under a LPOA mandate.
PLEASE GO WITH THE MONEY FLOW
Let us review what we teach and why it works if YOU WORK.
Without your WORK then you are just wasting your time and probably your money.
There is no such thing as Political Correctness here because we are here to teach and share our knowledge.
SO.... going back to our winning FORMULA for FOREX SUCCESS.
20% of the SUCCESS is yourself the Forex Trader.
20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE which we teach you and that is Money Flow Trading.
20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard earned money) Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear and greed. Of course we want to make sure that you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader so our course is for a period of three months, so we can teach you the right trading methods and we can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.
20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators which include not only the common ones. It includes the understanding of Supply and Demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points which you can see each day on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans which we also help you develop and explain WHY. These are our Winning Trade Plans that we review every three months or earlier if circumstances in the markets require that.
20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than Data Releases each day around the world. It includes reports and articles extremely well researched as you can clearly see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets especially in North America is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you then have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do and you are not surprised when events eventually unfold.
When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't trading, they're staring at screens and forcing trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business.
What makes a trader successful is discipline: doing the right thing with fidelity. What keeps a trader successful is innovation: doing new things and turning them into disciplines.
Thursday, September 25, 2014
A Preview of Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-4zHYD5MY44...teenbarger.jpg
One of the great disappointments I encounter when I read writings on the topic of trading psychology is that they invariably touch upon the same themes: discipline, controlling emotions, etc. Having worked with traders and portfolio managers for over a decade now, there is so much more to the psychology of trading than "sticking to your process" that I decided I had to write a book about what I was experiencing but wasn't reading. The title reflects that interest: Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
- #15,235
- Jul 22, 2025 8:39am Jul 22, 2025 8:39am
- | Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts
- https://assets.faireconomy.media/nfs...ar392875_2.gif BenjaminIs
- | Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 13,765 Posts | Online Now
Modern "Leadership": A Perfect Blend Of Delusion, Dishonesty, & Distraction | ZeroHedge
Modern "Leadership": A Perfect Blend Of Delusion, Dishonesty, & Distraction
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg
BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, MAR 12, 2024 - 05:00 PM
Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,
As is historically typical of all corrupted and objectively bankrupt nations, the truth is often as hard to find as an honest man in parliament.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=kp39eskJ
Thus, if you want to see what’s most true, and embarrassing (and directly linked) to desperately cornered power-brokers increasingly enamored by the centralizing marriage of corporate influence and government opportunists (currently masquerading as “democracy”), the best evidence of genuine reality often lies in what is deliberately omitted from the headlines and public discussion.
Stated otherwise, the devil doesn’t just lie in the details, it lies in what is deliberately ignored, omitted or censored.
As any serious devotee of history (now increasingly cancelled as “elitist”) already knows, there’s no greater power than the power to control the two key levers of society, namely: 1) information and 2) money.
Unfortunately, even in the land of the free, neither of these forces (from genuine capitalism to the fourth estate) serve its deliberately “tribalized” citizenry. Our so-called free press (aka “legacy media”) is anything but free, and our “independent” Federal Reserve is anything but Federal, a reserve or independent.
The ironies just abound.
Between the corporate media and the central bank, it’s fairly clear that both of these time-honored institutions are now openly in bed with big government.
This is not fable, but fact. It’s also ominous.
How Information is Controlled
Note, for example, how the obvious blunders of the “safe and effective” COVID policies/failures of late (from hysterical and global mandates, lab-leak denials, and excess-death math to the global gaslighting of the un-vaxed) have been curiously absent from the headlines or public debate, when just over a year ago this “crisis” was the center of all our lives.
Attempts by the French legislature were even made to fine or jail those criticizing the vaccine. It seems, for some, at least, that Liberté, Égalité, Fraternité has become a convenient phrase rather than guiding ideal. C’est la vie…
More, however, can be said of the strangely silent headlines on the blatant (and finally confirmed) illegality of Trudeau’s invoking of emergency powers to criminalize truckers’ collective expression of free speech and dissent in Canada, or the demonizing of veterans who question the neocon’s US proxy war in the Ukraine as “unpatriotic” or a threat to “national security.”
In short, if you want to see the truth of what scares the power-brokers whose policies defy the open common sense of the common man (which Walt Whitman described as the true spirit of any nation), just look at what those clinging to power deny, hide from, cancel, censor, confuse or punish.
Or to paraphrase Shakespeare, they “doth protest too much,” for they know they are in the wrong.
How Money is Controlled
Turning from the centralization of information toward the centralization of money, the template is no different.
Obfuscation, devilish little details and outright absence of discussion and headlines are where you find the darker truths behind our entirely rigged-to-fail financial system, which as we’ve shouted from the rooftops with facts rather than fear, is little more than a modern feudalism of insider lords and public serfs.
As we’ve warned for years, solving a debt crisis with more debt, which is then paid for with money mouse-clicked out of thin air, is not policy—it’s fantasy.
We’ve also warned that at some point this fantasy (and debt addiction) will lead to not only more lies, more wars and more centralization by the state (as well as a pretext for dystopian CBDC), but to an inflationary QE endgame/hangover of currency destruction interrupted by a conveniently deflationary (and openly denied) recession.
This is because a government $34T (and counting) out of debt control will have no choice but to take full control over our markets and money via capital controls, yield curve controls and more currency-killing QE to provide fake liquidity to a fake (Fed-driven/deficit-driven) market and economy.
Memories Are Short, Headlines Are Empty
Remember when Bernanke, for example, said QE would be “temporary”? What followed was QE 2,3,4, Operation Twist and then unlimited QE in 2020.
Remember when he also said such magical money would have no impact on the currency, which is the same thing Nixon said when he decoupled from gold in 1971?
What followed was a 98% decline in the USD’s purchasing power when measured against a milligram of gold.
And now, with Powell (who also said inflation was “transitory”) still toe-dipping into QT and hawkish rates, he seems to think no more QE will be needed, and that even the rate cuts he promised months backed are now being back-stepped.
Why?
Because Powell, like all political figures (and the FED IS POLITICAL) is pathologically incapable of admitting error or offering transparency or accountability for the debt hole his Fed has dug for us since its creepy inception in 1913.
After his “higher-for-longer” fight against inflation (a ruse to re-load his rate gun for the next recession) knee-capped the middle class, regional banks, and small businesses in an economy that is witnessing the highest level of corporate bankruptcies and layoffs in over a decade, Powell is still relying on words rather than math.
In this way, he has tempted an appallingly narrow S&P (which is nothing more than a tech ETF led by five names) to all time highs on just the suggestion (rather than act) of rate cuts.
But as I’ve argued elsewhere, this S&P bubble couldn’t come at a worse time nor in a worse national and global setting.
More Currency-Killing QE Will Come
Despite (and frankly, because of) all this embarrassing (and ignored) disfunction, the inflationary QE will come.
In fact, it has been hiding in plain sight.
Five times in the last four years, the two-heads (Yellen and Powell) of the two-headed financial snake in DC have been quietly providing trillions in back-door QE in various forms yet completely off the public headline/radar.
That is, via emptying of the Treasury General Account, issuing unloved IOUs from different extremes of the yield curve and sucking liquidity from the Reverse Repo Markets, DC has managed to buy more fantasy and time from “back-door” sources of liquidity which are now tapping out.
But math, as well looking beyond the headlines, teaches us that front-door (i.e., direct) QE is only a matter of time—i.e., just one popping and deflationary S&P bubble away.
For now, of course, Powell can’t say the quiet part out loud, and the vast majority of children playing within our Congress can’t even count out it loud.
How Dumb is the CBO?
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), for example, has already projected another $20T in US Federal Debt to be issued in the next 10 years.
If this number wasn’t so mind-numbingly shocking enough (yet largely ignored from the WSJ or NYT), what is even more comical (and mind-numbing) is that the same CBO also foresees NO recession in that 10-year projection.
Furthermore, the CBO is assuming that 10Y yields (i.e., interest rates) will be 40 basis points lower than they are today.
Wow.
The level of dishonesty, denial and/or outright stupidity in such a projection literally defies belief and hard reality.
Why?
First, the CBO is ignoring the recession we are already in.
Secondly, the only way for yields on the US 10Y to be lower than they are today is if someone (or some “thing”) actually buys Uncle Sam’s IOUs. (Yields move inversely to bond demand.)
Yet based on not only our last report on the most recent UST auction, and based far more importantly on the unspoken reality that global central banks have been net-sellers rather than buyers of USTs since 2014, one has to wonder from where those mathematical wonder kids at the CBO expect that bond demand to come?
The honest answer, of course, is that there are not enough natural buyers of our unloved IOUs.
This means the actual buying will come from a mouse-clicker at the Eccles Building, where zeros can be added to a balance sheet far easier than say…actual GDP.
Equally clear, is the fact that the trillions of such mouse-clicked dollars are fake dollars, and despite the ongoing debates between “base money” and “reserve notes,” QE IS inherently inflationary.
Powell, for all his faults, knows this.
But his political position (and hence proclivities) means he will continue to well… lie about the inevitability of more QE, more inflation and more currency debasement, which as we (and history) have also warned for years, is THE endgame.
New, Clever Little Lies and More Time-Buying at Your Expense
In the interim, the Fed and its sister little devil, the US Treasury Department, will come up with clever tricks to tell the surface truth while substantively (and simultaneously) lying.
In short, politics 101.
They do this via absolute confusion and brain-numbing details, acronyms and data hiding—i.e. “smoke and mirrors.”
For example, recently, the magicians in DC (namely, the ISDA, or “International Swaps & Derivatives Association) have asked the FED, the FDIC and the OCC (the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency) to reinstitute the UST exclusion for Supplementary Leverage Ratios (SLRs) at Federal Reserve Banks.
Most of you, of course, are saying: “What in the he_ _ does that mean?”
Well, that’s the entire point: You’re not supposed to understand, and you’re not supposed to notice.
Like all other pre-QE and current “backdoor QE” tricks, DC doesn’t want to show its bad poker hand.![]()
That is, it doesn’t want you to know how broke(n) our dollar thirsty (i.e., debt-soaked) nation truly is.
In simple English, by excluding SLRs from calculations at the Fed banks (which was last done when markets tanked in April of 2020), banks are allowed to buy USTs with no reserve requirements (which essentially allows for unlimited leverage).
Or in even simpler English, this is just QE without the Fed having to say the “QE” part out loud.
Shocker?
Hardly. Just more words replacing bad math, which in my opinion, is the perfect description of the current financial cycle (or fourth turning…)
Takeaways?
Given that extreme liquidity, as well as extreme leverage, is THE trigger for extreme debt and then extreme disaster in markets and economies (a theme repeated from David Hume to von Mises, or Reinhart & Rogoff to Jeremy Grantham), those investors playing the long-game (rather than a Taylor Swift S&P) are thinking preparation not FOMO.
Rather than chase tops, the smart money is looking at assets that cannot be “popped” when all that is rosy today turns to blood in the streets tomorrow.
Currencies–for all the myriad reasons discussed elsewhere, from De-dollarization to central bank debasement and petrodollar divergence–will be hit even harder, and yes, the USD too.
This explains the breakout in anti-fiat assets like BTC and gold.
We are not going to compare “digital” gold and real gold here, but have long argued that they are not the same assets, stores of value or mediums of exchange. Nor are we here to critique fans of the former to highlight investors of the latter.
I love gold. This doesn’t mean I hate BTC. But there’s a difference.
What we do know, and can say, however, is that the world’s central banks are stacking physical gold at unprecedented levels and that the COMEX and London exchanges are seeing historical (and one-way) out-flows from these exchanges for the simple reason that the world wants gold– a tier-1 asset—far more than it wants a UST.
In short, seismic shifts are not coming, they are already happening to the currencies of distrusted and debt-heavy sovereigns.
Many, however, will still try to understand gold’s price moves in connection with (i.e., as a “correlation” to) Fed policies as to rates (up or down), bond yields (up or down), the DXY/USD (up or down) or CPI inflation (up or down).
What we are seeing however, is that gold breaks away from all standard “correlations” when nations tip toward chaos, which is what always follows a debt crisis.
The fact that Germany, the UK, Japan, South Korea and China are technically in recession, while America denies recession at home, suggests to us (gee whiz) that such chaos (financial, military, social, currency and political) is already upon us.
And as trust falls in such a backdrop of objectively neutered currencies, gold simply rises, because it’s real rather than paper money.
The BIS knows this, the world’s central banks know this. Wall Street legends know this.
And yes, gold just reached all time highs in USD terms. We all know this.![]()
![]()
![]()
But there is much, much, more to come for gold, and for no other reason, than that there is sadly much, much more disfunction ahead in the financially upside-down (and debt-trapped) world which our leaders have handed us.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
- #15,236
- Jul 22, 2025 3:24pm Jul 22, 2025 3:24pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts
The One Reason to Own Silver Now: Explosive Upside in a Monetary Crisis
by Nick Giambruno
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...H78y6kyiRw--~D
“You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold.”
In a dramatic speech to the Democratic National Convention in 1896, William Jennings Bryan declared these famous words. Bryan, the Democrats’ nominee for President, was a staunch opponent of the gold standard. Instead, he advocated for a more prominent role for silver in the monetary system.
In the late 1800s, political movements—primarily centered around the Democratic Party—began pushing for inflationary policies. But the gold standard was a major obstacle. It imposed a strict limit on the government’s ability to redistribute wealth through inflation. Unbacked fiat paper money—like the inferior currency we’re forced to use today—was not an option back then. That’s why the Democrats and other inflation advocates rallied behind the easiest form of money available: silver.
For example, farmers lobbied for inflation so they could repay their debts with cheaper dollars. In response, Congress passed the Sherman Silver Purchase Act, requiring the US government to buy set amounts of silver to support its price and trigger inflation. It was in this context that Bryan made his powerful speech condemning gold.
Ultimately, their efforts failed. Bryan lost the election, and the US did not adopt silver to make inflation more feasible. It was a temporary victory for hard money advocates. But it wouldn’t last. In the decades to come, the US would move to a far worse form of money than silver: unbacked fiat paper currency.
I bring up this story for two key reasons.
First, it demonstrates how hard money frustrates the ambitions of spendthrift politicians—and that’s a very good thing.
Second—and more importantly—the triumph of gold over silver is a powerful example of an economic principle few people truly understand. Grasping this concept is essential to seeing the Big Picture and making transformational profits in the months ahead.
How Silver Lost Its Monetary Role—and Why It Matters Now
Gold is a superior form of money compared to silver—except in one key area. Physical gold isn’t convenient for small transactions. The smallest practical unit of gold is about one gram. As of this writing, that’s worth around $100—which is not insignificant even in today’s debased dollars.
That’s where silver historically came in. Throughout history, silver was more convenient for day-to-day use. It earned the reputation of being the “gentleman’s money,” while gold—with its higher value density—was the “money of kings.”
But by the late 1800s, silver’s edge in small transactions began to erode. As the banking system matured, there was less of a need for people to carry around physical metal. Banks started issuing paper currency backed by gold. This made it much more practical to use gold—even for small payments.
Given the choice, people preferred paper notes backed by gold over physical silver.
It was a clear illustration of how people naturally gravitate toward harder money, even if it means relying on third parties like banks.
In other words, people chose harder money with counterparties (gold-backed paper) over easier money without counterparties (physical silver).
As a result, silver’s monetary role—which had lasted for thousands of years—fell into sharp decline. It never recovered. Silver became primarily an industrial metal, with only a small remaining monetary premium. That status continues to this day.
The Hidden Truth About the Looming Monetary "Reset"
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
by Nick Giambruno
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...H78y6kyiRw--~D
“You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold.”
In a dramatic speech to the Democratic National Convention in 1896, William Jennings Bryan declared these famous words. Bryan, the Democrats’ nominee for President, was a staunch opponent of the gold standard. Instead, he advocated for a more prominent role for silver in the monetary system.
In the late 1800s, political movements—primarily centered around the Democratic Party—began pushing for inflationary policies. But the gold standard was a major obstacle. It imposed a strict limit on the government’s ability to redistribute wealth through inflation. Unbacked fiat paper money—like the inferior currency we’re forced to use today—was not an option back then. That’s why the Democrats and other inflation advocates rallied behind the easiest form of money available: silver.
For example, farmers lobbied for inflation so they could repay their debts with cheaper dollars. In response, Congress passed the Sherman Silver Purchase Act, requiring the US government to buy set amounts of silver to support its price and trigger inflation. It was in this context that Bryan made his powerful speech condemning gold.
Ultimately, their efforts failed. Bryan lost the election, and the US did not adopt silver to make inflation more feasible. It was a temporary victory for hard money advocates. But it wouldn’t last. In the decades to come, the US would move to a far worse form of money than silver: unbacked fiat paper currency.
I bring up this story for two key reasons.
First, it demonstrates how hard money frustrates the ambitions of spendthrift politicians—and that’s a very good thing.
Second—and more importantly—the triumph of gold over silver is a powerful example of an economic principle few people truly understand. Grasping this concept is essential to seeing the Big Picture and making transformational profits in the months ahead.
How Silver Lost Its Monetary Role—and Why It Matters Now
Gold is a superior form of money compared to silver—except in one key area. Physical gold isn’t convenient for small transactions. The smallest practical unit of gold is about one gram. As of this writing, that’s worth around $100—which is not insignificant even in today’s debased dollars.
That’s where silver historically came in. Throughout history, silver was more convenient for day-to-day use. It earned the reputation of being the “gentleman’s money,” while gold—with its higher value density—was the “money of kings.”
But by the late 1800s, silver’s edge in small transactions began to erode. As the banking system matured, there was less of a need for people to carry around physical metal. Banks started issuing paper currency backed by gold. This made it much more practical to use gold—even for small payments.
Given the choice, people preferred paper notes backed by gold over physical silver.
It was a clear illustration of how people naturally gravitate toward harder money, even if it means relying on third parties like banks.
In other words, people chose harder money with counterparties (gold-backed paper) over easier money without counterparties (physical silver).
As a result, silver’s monetary role—which had lasted for thousands of years—fell into sharp decline. It never recovered. Silver became primarily an industrial metal, with only a small remaining monetary premium. That status continues to this day.
The Hidden Truth About the Looming Monetary "Reset"
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
- #15,237
- Jul 22, 2025 6:24pm Jul 22, 2025 6:24pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts
https://professorwerner.org/blog/
Washington’s “development economics” is actually designed to prevent development
12 September 2023 | rawjapan | General | The Belt and Road Initiative was launched in 2013 by Chinese President Xi Jinping. In 2017, it became enshrined in the constitution of the Chinese Communist Party. This underlined the significance of this program for the People’s Republic. It also makes clear that this is a long-term project. So we know that the Belt and Road Initiative is important for China. But how important is it for the world?
To understand the international significance of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, it is necessary to understand what has happened with developing countries in the post-war era, namely under the Bretton Woods system and its Washington-based institutions, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
After the US and UK-led anti-German and anti-Japanese international military alliance of 26 countries, known as “the Allies”, rebranded themselves as “the United Nations” in 1942, the growing number of military allies – largely consisting of the Soviet Union, representatives for China, and Imperial Britain and its colonies, as well as the United States and its colonies – met in a golf club resort for very wealthy guests in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. There they formalised plans of a new international monetary system for the post-war era, at the centre of which was going to be the US dollar.
The system that was decided upon initially operated by using fixed exchange rates against the US dollar, while the dollar itself could be exchanged into gold at an administered exchange rate. This system was to hold up until 52 years ago, namely until August 1971. After a decade of massive US dollar creation by the US central bank and US banks in the 1960s had angered people in countries whose companies, land and other assets had been bought up by US investors, France had insisted on exchanging many of its resulting dollar reserves into gold. US gold reserves declined. As French Navy ships arrived in Manhattan to carry gold back to France, US president Nixon felt prompted to make his famous announcement on 15 August 1971 that the US would “temporarily” suspend dollar convertibility into gold – a US default on its obligations to the members of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system.
One month before this “Nixon shock”, another important event had happened: With US National Security Council member and former Rockefeller employee Henry Kissinger the first visit to China of a senior member of the US government administration to modern China took place – by the way a trip Henry Kissinger has just repeated, more than half a century later, despite his old age of now 100 years.
At the time of his first visit, the US was suffering from the twin problems of a ballooning trade deficit and a surging government budget deficit. The latter had been caused by the rising spending on military and secret service operations, including the wars and regime change operations in dozens of countries. The former was due to the successful exporting and current account surplus nations Japan and Germany failing to find enough attractive US-made goods they wanted to buy.
When the US rescinded its promise to allow the exchange of US dollars into gold at a set exchange rate, the dollar fell and to maintain military hegemony, US leaders felt this fall had to be stopped. The solution was found in the importing needs of countries like Germany and Japan: most of their energy was imported. The US dollar was thus transformed from the gold-backed dollar into the oil-backed dollar, known as the “petro-dollar”.
US troops were deployed in the largest oil producing country, Saudi Arabia, and a deal was made that its government and royal family would be supported by the US, in exchange for the promise to sell oil only against the US dollar, and invest 80% of the resulting abundance in US dollar reserves in Saudi Arabia back into US Treasuries, thus funding the government budget deficit, and with it, the US foreign wars.
Germany and Japan now needed US dollars, in order to be able to buy the energy needed to operate their economies. Of course, some alternatives were explored, namely Germany gradually began to import gas from the Soviet Union, which always delivered reliably.
The other step to underpin the US dollar was to engineer a massive hike in the oil price, which would essentially transfer vast resources from manufacturing powerhouses Germany and Japan to Saudi Arabia and the United States. For this, Henry Kissinger had to arm-twist the Saudis to quadruple the oil price, which happened in January 1974. To divert the attention from the true sequence and cause of these events, as outlined here, and instead spread the narrative that the driving force of events was the OPEC oil embargo, central banks in the sphere of influence of the Federal Reserve, which included the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Bundesbank, had simultaneously set out in 1971 and 1972 to massively expand the money supply by encouraging a grotesque expansion in bank credit, for property speculation and consumption.
This caused the inflation of the 1970s, despite the dominant official narrative that the inflation was the result of a war and its subsequent energy embargo. (Like Henry Kissinger’s visit to China, also this scenario has recurred half a century later: it was not the Russian military operation to defend the newly formed Republics on Ukraine’s borders that caused the inflation of 2021 and 2022, but the massive expansion in bank credit, coordinated by the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and ECB and implemented in March 2020).
As a result, US economic and political dominance continued in the 1970s. Meanwhile, the Bretton Woods institutions of the IMF and the World Bank had been used to manage what has been billed as a de-colonisation and movement towards independence of many countries and peoples across the globe: The British, US, French, Belgian and Dutch overseas colonial empires faced increasing demands by locals for political independence. Having argued that their fight in the second world war against Germany was for freedom and democracy, it was now difficult for these countries to delay decolonisation for the majority of the population in the world living in developing countries that were under their direct control.
We are told by modern English-language textbooks in “Development Economics” that it was this de-colonialisation that created a new academic discipline taught at their universities, called “Development Economics”. The development economics textbooks point out that this discipline did not exist until the 1950s and 1960s and it was created, because an increasing number of former colonies were becoming independent.
But development economics was not created by the leading thinkers of those newly independent countries! Instead, it was created by British and US economists. This, then, revealed the true purpose of “Development Economics”: Had the task of this English-language discipline by leading economists in the colonial powers been to teach countries and regions how to rapidly develop and move from developing country status to developed country status, it would be as old as colonialism itself:
What better time is there for colonial thinkers to shape a country and implement the right policies that will result in rapid economic development, than when the country is under the control of the colonial masters.
However, during centuries of colonial rule, no need was seen for such “Development Economics”. It was only when the colonial masters had to give up their formal political and military control over their colonies that they came up with the idea that these former colonial subjects needed advice on how to develop their economies.
Why should the former colonies trust their former colonial masters that had not developed Development Economics during the era of full-blown colonialism? Should they really accept uncritically the books on How to Develop Your Economy handed to them as they said good-bye to their colonial masters and became independent states?
To fend off any potential reluctance by the former colonial subjects to such advice from the sage and well-meaning former colonial rulers, the Washington-based institutions of IMF and World Bank would use the power of money to make the new rules of “Development Economics” more persuasive. The IMF and World Bank famously use “conditionality” when they dispense their loans. Other organisations, including the regional development banks, such as the Interamerican Development Bank, USAID, the OECD and the increasingly influential European Brussels-based bureaucracy, would repeat and re-enforce the Washington Consensus kind of “Development Economics”. These Washington institutions and the many other organisations under the US sphere of influence, which includes much of Europe, preach the insights of the English-language “Development Economics”, namely that countries need to deregulate, liberalise and privatise, as well as open up their markets to foreign competition and allow foreign investment to come in. The key insight they preach is that for economic growth and development, significant financial “savings” are necessary, and if countries have low savings rates, they can borrow “foreign savings” in the form of money lent to them by international banks, such as the IMF and World Bank themselves. This has indebted many developing countries to such proportions that their resources can be easily acquired by the foreign lenders in “debt-for-equity” swaps and other arrangements to “help them”.
We can tell whether a tree is good by looking at its fruits. The bottom line of the 75 years of IMF and World Bank international development policies is that there is not a single country among the more than 100 developing countries that have, thanks to IMF and World Bank-backed policies, moved decisively from developing country status to developed country status. This is not surprising, because the historical record shows that free trade and free market policies have never enabled a country to become an economic power. Instead, all economic powers had previously engaged in selective trade policy and infant industry protection in order to develop a large indigenous industry.
But it’s not just that the IMF and World Bank “Development Economics” failed to deliver. It can even be argued that it was deliberately designed in order to prevent economic development and instead keep developing countries in a state of dependency where their resources could be extracted at low cost. For the Washington-type of “development” consists in persuading developing countries, under the guise of “comparative advantage” to focus on low value-added commodities exports, but because their prices decline over long time periods relative to high value-added finished manufacturing goods, these developing countries will experience balance of payments deficits, feel the need for borrowing foreign money and their currencies weaken, causing debt traps – while making their resources ever cheaper for the rich countries to acquire.
This is not to say that there are no countries that moved from developing country to developed country status. However, there are only five countries or regions that did make a decisive move, measured by per capita income, to developed country status, namely Japan, South Korea, Singapore and China and its regions (including Taiwan). However, they achieved true economic development by ignoring the Washington-style “Development Economics” and adopting policies that are explicitly forbidden by the IMF and the World Bank, such as infant industry protection, industrial policy, and reliance on domestic bank credit creation instead of foreign money, whereby the central banks deployed ‘window guidance’ of bank credit to high value-added industries, while suppressing bank credit for consumption and asset purchases. China of course holds the prize for lifting more people out of poverty than any other country in history, thanks to policies that defied the Washington Consensus-type of “Development Economics”.
In the late 1980s, the Japanese government and many Finance Ministry officials pointed out to the leadership of the IMF and the World Bank that their policies were flawed and instead one should learn from the high growth East Asian economies in order to learn how to develop countries rapidly. But having US troops in Japan, Korea and even the Chinese region of Taiwan meant that voices from these regions could not challenge, let alone, change, the US-dominated IMF and World Bank practice. So the developing world remained under the cloud of “Development Economics” of the type that was designed to prevent economic development.
Next, China made many sincere attempts at formal IMF and World Bank shareholder meetings and at international summits and meetings to argue that IMF and World Bank policies should be changed, and also that other countries should have a bigger voice in the IMF and World Bank, as the US dominance was outdated and also had not resulted in economic success for the majority of countries. But such Chinese attempts to improve the system were rebuffed by the US.
As a consequence the Chinese leadership devised a bold alternative. This is the Belt and Road Initiative launched by President Xi Jinping. China established the New Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in Shanghai and Beijing, and became active in the BRICS group of countries. China also stepped up the activities of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Now developing countries have different options and do not need to submit to the de facto continuation of colonial rule via economic policies that the Bretton Woods system of IMF and World Bank had fostered.
Unlike the Washington-led system, China does not interfere in the politics of developing countries and does not impose IMF-style “conditionality” that often goes as far as demanding changes to the constitution (as the IMF demanded from Thailand after the 1997 Asian crisis). Instead, under the Belt and Road Initiative China invests its vast foreign exchange reserves in developing countries in the form of impressive infrastructure investments that directly help develop the receiver countries’ economies and encourage mutual trade and prosperity. Developing countries are grateful for this alternative offered by a country that does not have a history of colonising other countries. What is needed next is for China to champion the establishment of many small local banks in developing countries, just as Deng Xiaoping did at home to launch the rapid rise of the Chinese economy. This would be the ultimate alternative to the Washington-based wrong-headed “Development Economics”, which considers banks unimportant and presses countries to instead focus on stock market development, despite the fact that stock markets do not result in economic growth, but instead fuel US and UK-style casino capitalism.
China’s vast economy has benefitted greatly by abandoning the old Soviet-era mono-bank system of central planning and introducing decentralisation of economic decision-making, delegated to hundreds of thousands of loan officers working for thousands of small local banks evaluating the loan applications of millions of small firms and micro-businesses. This creates a strong and large middle-class, which means inequality declines and the country can prosper, thanks to the strong purchasing power of the average citizen – while the Washington “Development Economics” has presided over an ever-growing disparity between many very poor people and a small elite of extremely rich beneficiaries.
The Belt and Road Initiative is significant for the world for another reason: As the petro-dollar system is crumbling, with Saudi Arabia now selling oil also against the Chinese currency, there is a growing desire to move away from US dominance and the heavy hand of Washington-style neo-colonialism. Through the BRICS initiative, which complements the Belt and Road Initiative, there is now the prospect of an alternative international monetary system that facilitates peaceful trade and cooperation, and does not require oil and energy wars, as is the case with the ailing petro-dollar.
Professor Richard A. Werner, D.Phil. (Oxon), is professor of banking and economics at the University of Winchester. He previously was full professor of economics or finance at Goethe University, Frankfurt, the University of Southampton and Fudan University, Shanghai. His book Princes of the Yen (Quantumpublishers.com) was a number one bestseller in Japan. In 1995, he proposed a new monetary policy for post-crisis countries, which he called “Quantitative Easing”. Based on his Quantity Theory of Disaggregated Credit he warned in 1991 that the Japanese banking system and economy would collapse and move into a great depression. His website is www.professorwerner.org
Published in China by Guancha.cn newspaper on 7 September 2023 at: https://www.guancha.cn/Werner/2023_09_07_707650_3.shtml
Chinese translation available at previous pages: https://www.guancha.cn
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
Washington’s “development economics” is actually designed to prevent development
12 September 2023 | rawjapan | General | The Belt and Road Initiative was launched in 2013 by Chinese President Xi Jinping. In 2017, it became enshrined in the constitution of the Chinese Communist Party. This underlined the significance of this program for the People’s Republic. It also makes clear that this is a long-term project. So we know that the Belt and Road Initiative is important for China. But how important is it for the world?
To understand the international significance of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, it is necessary to understand what has happened with developing countries in the post-war era, namely under the Bretton Woods system and its Washington-based institutions, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
After the US and UK-led anti-German and anti-Japanese international military alliance of 26 countries, known as “the Allies”, rebranded themselves as “the United Nations” in 1942, the growing number of military allies – largely consisting of the Soviet Union, representatives for China, and Imperial Britain and its colonies, as well as the United States and its colonies – met in a golf club resort for very wealthy guests in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. There they formalised plans of a new international monetary system for the post-war era, at the centre of which was going to be the US dollar.
The system that was decided upon initially operated by using fixed exchange rates against the US dollar, while the dollar itself could be exchanged into gold at an administered exchange rate. This system was to hold up until 52 years ago, namely until August 1971. After a decade of massive US dollar creation by the US central bank and US banks in the 1960s had angered people in countries whose companies, land and other assets had been bought up by US investors, France had insisted on exchanging many of its resulting dollar reserves into gold. US gold reserves declined. As French Navy ships arrived in Manhattan to carry gold back to France, US president Nixon felt prompted to make his famous announcement on 15 August 1971 that the US would “temporarily” suspend dollar convertibility into gold – a US default on its obligations to the members of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system.
One month before this “Nixon shock”, another important event had happened: With US National Security Council member and former Rockefeller employee Henry Kissinger the first visit to China of a senior member of the US government administration to modern China took place – by the way a trip Henry Kissinger has just repeated, more than half a century later, despite his old age of now 100 years.
At the time of his first visit, the US was suffering from the twin problems of a ballooning trade deficit and a surging government budget deficit. The latter had been caused by the rising spending on military and secret service operations, including the wars and regime change operations in dozens of countries. The former was due to the successful exporting and current account surplus nations Japan and Germany failing to find enough attractive US-made goods they wanted to buy.
When the US rescinded its promise to allow the exchange of US dollars into gold at a set exchange rate, the dollar fell and to maintain military hegemony, US leaders felt this fall had to be stopped. The solution was found in the importing needs of countries like Germany and Japan: most of their energy was imported. The US dollar was thus transformed from the gold-backed dollar into the oil-backed dollar, known as the “petro-dollar”.
US troops were deployed in the largest oil producing country, Saudi Arabia, and a deal was made that its government and royal family would be supported by the US, in exchange for the promise to sell oil only against the US dollar, and invest 80% of the resulting abundance in US dollar reserves in Saudi Arabia back into US Treasuries, thus funding the government budget deficit, and with it, the US foreign wars.
Germany and Japan now needed US dollars, in order to be able to buy the energy needed to operate their economies. Of course, some alternatives were explored, namely Germany gradually began to import gas from the Soviet Union, which always delivered reliably.
The other step to underpin the US dollar was to engineer a massive hike in the oil price, which would essentially transfer vast resources from manufacturing powerhouses Germany and Japan to Saudi Arabia and the United States. For this, Henry Kissinger had to arm-twist the Saudis to quadruple the oil price, which happened in January 1974. To divert the attention from the true sequence and cause of these events, as outlined here, and instead spread the narrative that the driving force of events was the OPEC oil embargo, central banks in the sphere of influence of the Federal Reserve, which included the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Bundesbank, had simultaneously set out in 1971 and 1972 to massively expand the money supply by encouraging a grotesque expansion in bank credit, for property speculation and consumption.
This caused the inflation of the 1970s, despite the dominant official narrative that the inflation was the result of a war and its subsequent energy embargo. (Like Henry Kissinger’s visit to China, also this scenario has recurred half a century later: it was not the Russian military operation to defend the newly formed Republics on Ukraine’s borders that caused the inflation of 2021 and 2022, but the massive expansion in bank credit, coordinated by the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and ECB and implemented in March 2020).
As a result, US economic and political dominance continued in the 1970s. Meanwhile, the Bretton Woods institutions of the IMF and the World Bank had been used to manage what has been billed as a de-colonisation and movement towards independence of many countries and peoples across the globe: The British, US, French, Belgian and Dutch overseas colonial empires faced increasing demands by locals for political independence. Having argued that their fight in the second world war against Germany was for freedom and democracy, it was now difficult for these countries to delay decolonisation for the majority of the population in the world living in developing countries that were under their direct control.
We are told by modern English-language textbooks in “Development Economics” that it was this de-colonialisation that created a new academic discipline taught at their universities, called “Development Economics”. The development economics textbooks point out that this discipline did not exist until the 1950s and 1960s and it was created, because an increasing number of former colonies were becoming independent.
But development economics was not created by the leading thinkers of those newly independent countries! Instead, it was created by British and US economists. This, then, revealed the true purpose of “Development Economics”: Had the task of this English-language discipline by leading economists in the colonial powers been to teach countries and regions how to rapidly develop and move from developing country status to developed country status, it would be as old as colonialism itself:
What better time is there for colonial thinkers to shape a country and implement the right policies that will result in rapid economic development, than when the country is under the control of the colonial masters.
However, during centuries of colonial rule, no need was seen for such “Development Economics”. It was only when the colonial masters had to give up their formal political and military control over their colonies that they came up with the idea that these former colonial subjects needed advice on how to develop their economies.
Why should the former colonies trust their former colonial masters that had not developed Development Economics during the era of full-blown colonialism? Should they really accept uncritically the books on How to Develop Your Economy handed to them as they said good-bye to their colonial masters and became independent states?
To fend off any potential reluctance by the former colonial subjects to such advice from the sage and well-meaning former colonial rulers, the Washington-based institutions of IMF and World Bank would use the power of money to make the new rules of “Development Economics” more persuasive. The IMF and World Bank famously use “conditionality” when they dispense their loans. Other organisations, including the regional development banks, such as the Interamerican Development Bank, USAID, the OECD and the increasingly influential European Brussels-based bureaucracy, would repeat and re-enforce the Washington Consensus kind of “Development Economics”. These Washington institutions and the many other organisations under the US sphere of influence, which includes much of Europe, preach the insights of the English-language “Development Economics”, namely that countries need to deregulate, liberalise and privatise, as well as open up their markets to foreign competition and allow foreign investment to come in. The key insight they preach is that for economic growth and development, significant financial “savings” are necessary, and if countries have low savings rates, they can borrow “foreign savings” in the form of money lent to them by international banks, such as the IMF and World Bank themselves. This has indebted many developing countries to such proportions that their resources can be easily acquired by the foreign lenders in “debt-for-equity” swaps and other arrangements to “help them”.
We can tell whether a tree is good by looking at its fruits. The bottom line of the 75 years of IMF and World Bank international development policies is that there is not a single country among the more than 100 developing countries that have, thanks to IMF and World Bank-backed policies, moved decisively from developing country status to developed country status. This is not surprising, because the historical record shows that free trade and free market policies have never enabled a country to become an economic power. Instead, all economic powers had previously engaged in selective trade policy and infant industry protection in order to develop a large indigenous industry.
But it’s not just that the IMF and World Bank “Development Economics” failed to deliver. It can even be argued that it was deliberately designed in order to prevent economic development and instead keep developing countries in a state of dependency where their resources could be extracted at low cost. For the Washington-type of “development” consists in persuading developing countries, under the guise of “comparative advantage” to focus on low value-added commodities exports, but because their prices decline over long time periods relative to high value-added finished manufacturing goods, these developing countries will experience balance of payments deficits, feel the need for borrowing foreign money and their currencies weaken, causing debt traps – while making their resources ever cheaper for the rich countries to acquire.
This is not to say that there are no countries that moved from developing country to developed country status. However, there are only five countries or regions that did make a decisive move, measured by per capita income, to developed country status, namely Japan, South Korea, Singapore and China and its regions (including Taiwan). However, they achieved true economic development by ignoring the Washington-style “Development Economics” and adopting policies that are explicitly forbidden by the IMF and the World Bank, such as infant industry protection, industrial policy, and reliance on domestic bank credit creation instead of foreign money, whereby the central banks deployed ‘window guidance’ of bank credit to high value-added industries, while suppressing bank credit for consumption and asset purchases. China of course holds the prize for lifting more people out of poverty than any other country in history, thanks to policies that defied the Washington Consensus-type of “Development Economics”.
In the late 1980s, the Japanese government and many Finance Ministry officials pointed out to the leadership of the IMF and the World Bank that their policies were flawed and instead one should learn from the high growth East Asian economies in order to learn how to develop countries rapidly. But having US troops in Japan, Korea and even the Chinese region of Taiwan meant that voices from these regions could not challenge, let alone, change, the US-dominated IMF and World Bank practice. So the developing world remained under the cloud of “Development Economics” of the type that was designed to prevent economic development.
Next, China made many sincere attempts at formal IMF and World Bank shareholder meetings and at international summits and meetings to argue that IMF and World Bank policies should be changed, and also that other countries should have a bigger voice in the IMF and World Bank, as the US dominance was outdated and also had not resulted in economic success for the majority of countries. But such Chinese attempts to improve the system were rebuffed by the US.
As a consequence the Chinese leadership devised a bold alternative. This is the Belt and Road Initiative launched by President Xi Jinping. China established the New Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in Shanghai and Beijing, and became active in the BRICS group of countries. China also stepped up the activities of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Now developing countries have different options and do not need to submit to the de facto continuation of colonial rule via economic policies that the Bretton Woods system of IMF and World Bank had fostered.
Unlike the Washington-led system, China does not interfere in the politics of developing countries and does not impose IMF-style “conditionality” that often goes as far as demanding changes to the constitution (as the IMF demanded from Thailand after the 1997 Asian crisis). Instead, under the Belt and Road Initiative China invests its vast foreign exchange reserves in developing countries in the form of impressive infrastructure investments that directly help develop the receiver countries’ economies and encourage mutual trade and prosperity. Developing countries are grateful for this alternative offered by a country that does not have a history of colonising other countries. What is needed next is for China to champion the establishment of many small local banks in developing countries, just as Deng Xiaoping did at home to launch the rapid rise of the Chinese economy. This would be the ultimate alternative to the Washington-based wrong-headed “Development Economics”, which considers banks unimportant and presses countries to instead focus on stock market development, despite the fact that stock markets do not result in economic growth, but instead fuel US and UK-style casino capitalism.
China’s vast economy has benefitted greatly by abandoning the old Soviet-era mono-bank system of central planning and introducing decentralisation of economic decision-making, delegated to hundreds of thousands of loan officers working for thousands of small local banks evaluating the loan applications of millions of small firms and micro-businesses. This creates a strong and large middle-class, which means inequality declines and the country can prosper, thanks to the strong purchasing power of the average citizen – while the Washington “Development Economics” has presided over an ever-growing disparity between many very poor people and a small elite of extremely rich beneficiaries.
The Belt and Road Initiative is significant for the world for another reason: As the petro-dollar system is crumbling, with Saudi Arabia now selling oil also against the Chinese currency, there is a growing desire to move away from US dominance and the heavy hand of Washington-style neo-colonialism. Through the BRICS initiative, which complements the Belt and Road Initiative, there is now the prospect of an alternative international monetary system that facilitates peaceful trade and cooperation, and does not require oil and energy wars, as is the case with the ailing petro-dollar.
Professor Richard A. Werner, D.Phil. (Oxon), is professor of banking and economics at the University of Winchester. He previously was full professor of economics or finance at Goethe University, Frankfurt, the University of Southampton and Fudan University, Shanghai. His book Princes of the Yen (Quantumpublishers.com) was a number one bestseller in Japan. In 1995, he proposed a new monetary policy for post-crisis countries, which he called “Quantitative Easing”. Based on his Quantity Theory of Disaggregated Credit he warned in 1991 that the Japanese banking system and economy would collapse and move into a great depression. His website is www.professorwerner.org
Published in China by Guancha.cn newspaper on 7 September 2023 at: https://www.guancha.cn/Werner/2023_09_07_707650_3.shtml
Chinese translation available at previous pages: https://www.guancha.cn
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July 22, 2025
Trump Building Off-Ramp From Ukraine That Has No Places Left For New Burials
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers
An informative new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today first noting top Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov revealed: “President Putin is going to Beijing in September for celebrations of the 80th anniversary of the victory over Japan in World War II, and he could meet with his counterpart President Donald Trump there if the American leader decides to travel to China at the same time”, says this revelation was joined by President Donald Trump’s former national security advisor Ambassador John Bolton warning his warmongering neocon allies: “Mr. Trump is building his own off-ramp from Ukraine...He satisfied immediate demands for aid by Ukraine’s beleaguered defenders but avoided long-term commitments...Unfortunately, Mr. Trump seems more interested in extricating himself from Ukraine, diplomatically and militarily”.
During his evening address last night, this report notes, unelected Ukrainian Dictator Vladimir Zelensky announced: “The third round of direct talks between the Ukrainian and Russian delegations in Istanbul will take place on 23 July”—the Kremlin quickly clarified: “The meeting is scheduled for 24 July...The delegations may arrive in Istanbul on 23 July”—are talks that follow NATO not agreeing on the supply of military aid to Ukraine yesterday—and Dictator Zelensky raged: “The EU has opened access to €150 billion...Member states can assume obligations to draw these funds and then transfer them to Ukraine...Ten countries have already expressed readiness to take this money, but we have not yet seen the result – that they have actually taken it and transferred it to us”.
Yesterday, this report continues, Dictator Zelensky ordered his military intelligence operatives to raid the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine and arrest for treason its officials--Ukrainian Parliament Member Artem Dmytruk beyond shockingly accused Dictator Zelensky of stealing over $10 billion annually and orchestrating raids on Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau to cover his tracks—and today it was revealed: “Ambassadors of the Group of Seven countries say they are monitoring law enforcement raids on the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine”.
In breaking with standard Western propaganda, this report details, the French newspaper Le Monde factually assessed: “Ukraine’s official military casualty figures in the conflict with Russia may be vastly understated”—a factual assessment joined by the Ministry of Defense (MoD) revealing that Russian military forces killed 2,520 Ukrainian soldiers over the past day.
In 2023, this report concludes, top Kremlin advisor Kirill Strelnikov observed: “As is often the case in the Western media, the most embarrassing facts are only covered when they can no longer be hidden, but even then unpleasant admissions are made with numerous caveats and excuses”—an observation now joined with his open letter “Kyiv Is Begging For Urgent Negotiations: Everything Will Be Over By The End Of The Year”, wherein he assessed today:
Yesterday, a powerful "high-level meeting" took place on the Internet between representatives of Kiev and the "eternal allies" of Ukraine, where it was supposed to discuss the crushing success of Trump’s turn to Zelensky and the magical scheme of supplying American weapons to the Ukrainian Armed Forces through European gaskets, and also estimate how many days later Putin will personally come with a petition for complete surrender.
Instead, the defense ministers of Great Britain and Germany, as well as the US ambassador to NATO, listened for a long time to a list of wishes from the new Minister of Defense of Ukraine Shmygal, who did not waste time on trifles and stupidly demanded six billion dollars first to purchase more drones, and "deep strike weapons to return war to Russia".
When it came to the coveted Patriot systems, there was a bad hitch: the US representative said that he "cannot give specific dates".
Some observers suspect that the "patriotic" symphony in the jump changed its key from major to minor, including after reports from the Russian Ministry of Defense that over the past 24 hours our troops had smashed another Patriot battery in almost full parade, after which somewhere in Washington, US Treasury Secretary Bennett sadly wrote in his ledger: "another billion minus".
At the same time, those gathered tiptoed around the fact that the day before, Zelensky urgently requested negotiations with Russia, although immediately after the resumption of American supplies and Trump’s ultimatums, he began to walk around like a Gogol and even washed a green sweatshirt.
Western media and experts agree that Zelensky’s joy was, to put it mildly, premature.
Newsweek recently reported: while "NATO countries generally agree to increase spending" (including expanding military assistance to Ukraine), "differences in priorities between different countries remain very large".
Our favorite analysts from Politico wrote that "European discord remains", and "there is no specificity for the acquisition of specific types of weapons for Ukraine". They are echoed by Reuters: "much remains undisclosed, including the volume and exact types of weapons supplied, the timing of their transfer and payment mechanisms".
It may seem that the issue is solely a matter of nasty pieces of paper, procedures and approvals, so it is enough to slam your fist on the table for an unstoppable force with the label "Made in the USA" to finally move against the evil Russian hordes. Paid by Europe.
But, most likely (or rather, for sure), the point is different: no one wants to invest hard-earned euros in an obviously dead business.
Even reckless Russophobes like Merz have little faith in Zelensky’s fervent napkin promises to turn the calendar around, while NATO intelligence agencies simultaneously report that the situation on the battlefield for Kyiv is getting worse every day.
Despite the categorical taboo on covering the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces due to their horrific scale, the relevant information inevitably leaks even to the front pages of the European media.
A day ago, the French Le Monde published an article claiming that Zelensky was lying like a gray gelding about the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed.
The authors of the study cite facts: in Ukraine, new military cemeteries have recently been opened in batches, and there are practically no places left for new burials. For example, it is planned to open a new memorial near Kiev — with as many as 160 thousand graves.
The last time (in January) Zelensky claimed that there were only about 46 thousand people killed in the Armed Forces of Ukraine since the beginning of the Northern Military District —. Who then were they going to bury there with honors — unless "kopeck piece" or "three ruble" graves were invented in Ukraine? The answer is provided by reports from the Russian Ministry of Defense: in the first half of this year alone, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost more than 265 thousand people killed and wounded.
Apparently, there was some kind of temporary clarification in the French air, because Le Figaro joined a more realistic description of the situation in Ukraine yesterday.
Brief conclusion: "For Kyiv, the conflict is already lost".
Wait a second, what about Macron’s boasting about a new Napoleonic campaign against Moscow with a Ukrainian accent? Apparently we'll have to wait.
Risking a place of honor on "Peacemaker", French experts are whipping up a politically incorrect zrada: it turns out that "Ukrainians live in a nightmare that does not stop", they will no longer be able to "change the balance of power, which has remained negative for them for three and a half years".
It turns out that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are "facing a depletion of resources and a decrease in support", "the Ukrainian army is weakened due to a lack of human resources" and the Russian offensive is accelerating — after capturing the last fortified cities in the Donbass, "the Russian army will be on the threshold of the central steppes of the country". It also turns out that if the Russian Armed Forces continue to put pressure on positions with the same force, Ukraine may face a front collapse by the end of the year.
Apparently, the ideal moment has come for Kyiv for "negotiations from a position of strength": Zelensky’s squeal has switched to ultrasound, he demands that the meeting with the Russian delegation begin tomorrow.
Some time ago, the Russophobic think tank — Carnegie Endowment — concluded that "Ukraine has been steadily losing territory in the war with Russia since 2023" after the failure of the counteroffensive, but "the reality looks much worse".
Russia does not refuse negotiations, but, as has been said many times, it is impossible to enter the same river twice:
Ukraine once again tried to hide behind the US and resolve the issue by force, but instead took another step towards complete destruction and historical oblivion.
[Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]
https://www.whatdoesitmean.com/uds21.png
July 22, 2025
EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition it is linked to its original source at WhatDoesItMean.Com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.
[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ has been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exampled in numerous places, including HERE.]
[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green (1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]
[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]
World Warned Imminent Black Swan Event Will Ignite The Unthinkable
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Trump Building Off-Ramp From Ukraine That Has No Places Left For New Burials
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers
An informative new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today first noting top Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov revealed: “President Putin is going to Beijing in September for celebrations of the 80th anniversary of the victory over Japan in World War II, and he could meet with his counterpart President Donald Trump there if the American leader decides to travel to China at the same time”, says this revelation was joined by President Donald Trump’s former national security advisor Ambassador John Bolton warning his warmongering neocon allies: “Mr. Trump is building his own off-ramp from Ukraine...He satisfied immediate demands for aid by Ukraine’s beleaguered defenders but avoided long-term commitments...Unfortunately, Mr. Trump seems more interested in extricating himself from Ukraine, diplomatically and militarily”.
During his evening address last night, this report notes, unelected Ukrainian Dictator Vladimir Zelensky announced: “The third round of direct talks between the Ukrainian and Russian delegations in Istanbul will take place on 23 July”—the Kremlin quickly clarified: “The meeting is scheduled for 24 July...The delegations may arrive in Istanbul on 23 July”—are talks that follow NATO not agreeing on the supply of military aid to Ukraine yesterday—and Dictator Zelensky raged: “The EU has opened access to €150 billion...Member states can assume obligations to draw these funds and then transfer them to Ukraine...Ten countries have already expressed readiness to take this money, but we have not yet seen the result – that they have actually taken it and transferred it to us”.
Yesterday, this report continues, Dictator Zelensky ordered his military intelligence operatives to raid the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine and arrest for treason its officials--Ukrainian Parliament Member Artem Dmytruk beyond shockingly accused Dictator Zelensky of stealing over $10 billion annually and orchestrating raids on Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau to cover his tracks—and today it was revealed: “Ambassadors of the Group of Seven countries say they are monitoring law enforcement raids on the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine”.
In breaking with standard Western propaganda, this report details, the French newspaper Le Monde factually assessed: “Ukraine’s official military casualty figures in the conflict with Russia may be vastly understated”—a factual assessment joined by the Ministry of Defense (MoD) revealing that Russian military forces killed 2,520 Ukrainian soldiers over the past day.
In 2023, this report concludes, top Kremlin advisor Kirill Strelnikov observed: “As is often the case in the Western media, the most embarrassing facts are only covered when they can no longer be hidden, but even then unpleasant admissions are made with numerous caveats and excuses”—an observation now joined with his open letter “Kyiv Is Begging For Urgent Negotiations: Everything Will Be Over By The End Of The Year”, wherein he assessed today:
Yesterday, a powerful "high-level meeting" took place on the Internet between representatives of Kiev and the "eternal allies" of Ukraine, where it was supposed to discuss the crushing success of Trump’s turn to Zelensky and the magical scheme of supplying American weapons to the Ukrainian Armed Forces through European gaskets, and also estimate how many days later Putin will personally come with a petition for complete surrender.
Instead, the defense ministers of Great Britain and Germany, as well as the US ambassador to NATO, listened for a long time to a list of wishes from the new Minister of Defense of Ukraine Shmygal, who did not waste time on trifles and stupidly demanded six billion dollars first to purchase more drones, and "deep strike weapons to return war to Russia".
When it came to the coveted Patriot systems, there was a bad hitch: the US representative said that he "cannot give specific dates".
Some observers suspect that the "patriotic" symphony in the jump changed its key from major to minor, including after reports from the Russian Ministry of Defense that over the past 24 hours our troops had smashed another Patriot battery in almost full parade, after which somewhere in Washington, US Treasury Secretary Bennett sadly wrote in his ledger: "another billion minus".
At the same time, those gathered tiptoed around the fact that the day before, Zelensky urgently requested negotiations with Russia, although immediately after the resumption of American supplies and Trump’s ultimatums, he began to walk around like a Gogol and even washed a green sweatshirt.
Western media and experts agree that Zelensky’s joy was, to put it mildly, premature.
Newsweek recently reported: while "NATO countries generally agree to increase spending" (including expanding military assistance to Ukraine), "differences in priorities between different countries remain very large".
Our favorite analysts from Politico wrote that "European discord remains", and "there is no specificity for the acquisition of specific types of weapons for Ukraine". They are echoed by Reuters: "much remains undisclosed, including the volume and exact types of weapons supplied, the timing of their transfer and payment mechanisms".
It may seem that the issue is solely a matter of nasty pieces of paper, procedures and approvals, so it is enough to slam your fist on the table for an unstoppable force with the label "Made in the USA" to finally move against the evil Russian hordes. Paid by Europe.
But, most likely (or rather, for sure), the point is different: no one wants to invest hard-earned euros in an obviously dead business.
Even reckless Russophobes like Merz have little faith in Zelensky’s fervent napkin promises to turn the calendar around, while NATO intelligence agencies simultaneously report that the situation on the battlefield for Kyiv is getting worse every day.
Despite the categorical taboo on covering the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces due to their horrific scale, the relevant information inevitably leaks even to the front pages of the European media.
A day ago, the French Le Monde published an article claiming that Zelensky was lying like a gray gelding about the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed.
The authors of the study cite facts: in Ukraine, new military cemeteries have recently been opened in batches, and there are practically no places left for new burials. For example, it is planned to open a new memorial near Kiev — with as many as 160 thousand graves.
The last time (in January) Zelensky claimed that there were only about 46 thousand people killed in the Armed Forces of Ukraine since the beginning of the Northern Military District —. Who then were they going to bury there with honors — unless "kopeck piece" or "three ruble" graves were invented in Ukraine? The answer is provided by reports from the Russian Ministry of Defense: in the first half of this year alone, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost more than 265 thousand people killed and wounded.
Apparently, there was some kind of temporary clarification in the French air, because Le Figaro joined a more realistic description of the situation in Ukraine yesterday.
Brief conclusion: "For Kyiv, the conflict is already lost".
Wait a second, what about Macron’s boasting about a new Napoleonic campaign against Moscow with a Ukrainian accent? Apparently we'll have to wait.
Risking a place of honor on "Peacemaker", French experts are whipping up a politically incorrect zrada: it turns out that "Ukrainians live in a nightmare that does not stop", they will no longer be able to "change the balance of power, which has remained negative for them for three and a half years".
It turns out that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are "facing a depletion of resources and a decrease in support", "the Ukrainian army is weakened due to a lack of human resources" and the Russian offensive is accelerating — after capturing the last fortified cities in the Donbass, "the Russian army will be on the threshold of the central steppes of the country". It also turns out that if the Russian Armed Forces continue to put pressure on positions with the same force, Ukraine may face a front collapse by the end of the year.
Apparently, the ideal moment has come for Kyiv for "negotiations from a position of strength": Zelensky’s squeal has switched to ultrasound, he demands that the meeting with the Russian delegation begin tomorrow.
Some time ago, the Russophobic think tank — Carnegie Endowment — concluded that "Ukraine has been steadily losing territory in the war with Russia since 2023" after the failure of the counteroffensive, but "the reality looks much worse".
Russia does not refuse negotiations, but, as has been said many times, it is impossible to enter the same river twice:
Ukraine once again tried to hide behind the US and resolve the issue by force, but instead took another step towards complete destruction and historical oblivion.
[Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]
https://www.whatdoesitmean.com/uds21.png
July 22, 2025
[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ has been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exampled in numerous places, including HERE.]
[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green (1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]
[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]
World Warned Imminent Black Swan Event Will Ignite The Unthinkable
Rebel Alliance Leader With “All Seeing Eye” Unleashed By Trump To Find Antichrist
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- Jul 23, 2025 5:02am Jul 23, 2025 5:02am
- | Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,165 Posts
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EIR News
From:[email protected]
To:[email protected]
Wed, July 23 at 10:00 a.m.
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...A.BYT3_ERg--~D
EIR Daily News • Wednesday, July 23, 2025
By EIR News • 23 Jul 2025
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The Lead
Dare Call It Treason! It Shall Not Prosper!
by Dennis Speed (EIRNS) — Jul. 22, 2025
It is true that Director of National Security Tulsi Gabbard has just called attention, through a series of now-declassified documents, to a 9-year-old story, that she has referred to as “a treasonous conspiracy,” on the part of the 2016 American intelligence establishment, including the then-President Barack Obama. But on behalf of whom is this treason being committed? The Russiagate caper, for example, was instigated by British intelligence, in the form of then-GCHQ Chief Robert Hannigan. That is, a foreign government, the British Empire, interfered to defraud the 2016 American Presidential election, by claiming that Russia hacked the Democratic National Committee.
As journalist Aaron Maté wrote on July 22: “According to newly declassified documents, U.S. intelligence leaders concealed high-level doubts about one of Russiagate’s foundational allegations: that Russia stole and leaked Democratic Party material to help Trump defeat Hillary Clinton. In a September 2016 report that was never made public until now, the NSA and the FBI broke with their intelligence counterparts and expressed ‘low confidence’ in the attribution to Russia. The previously undisclosed dissent about Russia’s alleged hacking activities in the 2016 election is among several revelations released last week by Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s Director of National Intelligence.” But it was British Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) Chief Robert Hannigan and Christopher Steele’s controller, “former” MI6 head Sir Richard Dearlove, that were the instigators and the brains behind it all.
Former UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter responded to these revelations on July 21 on George Galloway’s show: “[W]e’re at a point right now in American British relations where we need to be calling a spade a spade. You are not our friend. In fact, you are our enemy. You facilitated active treason against the sitting President of the United States. Under some circumstances, that would be a casus belli (cause for war)…. And you’re lucky I’m not the president, because I’ll tell you what, you interfere with American democracy to that degree, you will pay a heavy price, as you should. Not you, George. You’re my friend and not the British people. And that’s why we’ll never do this. But your government is the absolute enemy of not just the United States, but all of humanity.”
When looking at “Russiagate,” it is important to see the nature of the treason under consideration; thermonuclear war, after all, is treason against the human race. The present war of NATO against Russia is a war that London’s The Economist had written a script for, in 2007, before Barack Obama was elected to the Presidency. “In the dangerous second decade of the (21st) century, when Vladimir Putin returned for a third term as Russian president and stood poised to invade Ukraine, it was the EU that pushed the Obama administration to threaten massive nuclear retaliation.”
Yesterday, Russian spokeswoman Maria Zhakarova expressed, in her unique way, what this British-instigated march toward folly has actually meant. “Historically, we have done everything possible to build relations with a peaceful and prosperous Germany based on mutual respect. We forgave what no person, no nation, should be expected to forgive. We forgave the deaths of tens of millions of our people. And what did we get in return? What everyone is seeing today….
“To me, the most alarming thing happening in Germany is the complete amnesia regarding its own past. The country has forgotten its recent history, including its reunification. The fact that the country was divided did not happen by some global accident, but as a consequence of the crimes it committed. Germany has forgotten who played the decisive role in making its reunification possible. It was our country, our people, those who had every right not to forgive, but did, who also helped bring the German people back together. Even that has now been betrayed. They have betrayed themselves.”
Is America about to betray itself as well? Will that self-betrayal, given America’s importance, cause a global thermonuclear war? Perhaps the way to look at what Gabbard is calling attention to is, in the context of a larger, chronic problem of “Tory” treasonous behavior in the American Presidency, citing a series of years: 1989, with the Bush 41 presidency and the fall of the Berlin Wall; 1963’s Kennedy assassination; 1945’s April death, in office, of President Franklin Roosevelt and the subsequent unjustified dropping of the atomic bomb in August.
For a moment, then, reverse this perspective. See the American Revolution as the first successful anti-colonial revolution in history, 250 years ago. Then, consider the nearly 600 years of colonialism that is now coming to an end, and the role that the international collaboration known as the American Revolution played in causing that transition to come about. Then, realize that the promise contained in the American 1776 Declaration of Independence is best expressed in the present-day economic aspirations of the true heirs of that experiment—the vast majority of the human race, as assembled in over 100 nations, now called the “Global Majority.”
Yet, the United States has been caused to regard that very grouping of nations, grouped at the moment around the formation called the BRICS, as its enemy. In upholding this wrong idea, the United States commits treason against itself. It is of this that President John Quincy Adams, who occupied that office exactly 200 years ago, warned the Congress four years earlier in his Fourth of July speech in 1821: America “well knows that by once enlisting under other banners than her own, were they even the banners of foreign Independence, she would involve herself beyond the power of extrication, in all the wars of interest and intrigue, of individual avarice, envy, and ambition, which assume the colors and usurp the standard of freedom.”
Fifty years ago, the economist and statesman Lyndon LaRouche, in what is today referred to as his “Oasis Plan,” outlined how to extend justice, not “IMF/World Bank loans,” to Palestine and Southwest Asia, and more generally to the nations of Africa, Asia and Ibero-America, in the form of “advanced technology transfer.” In this way, not only would the crimes of colonialism be addressed, but a new, self-sufficient economic platform would be created, based on technology transfer as expressed in advanced machine tool production and high energy-density physical production in the fields of mining, manufacturing, agriculture, and essential infrastructure, including in the fields of health and education. That would provide the economic foundation for a real new security and development architecture. That is the fight that must be waged in the United Nations now, for the people of Gaza, and for our own souls’ sake.
Contents
Strategic War Danger
From:[email protected]
To:[email protected]
Wed, July 23 at 10:00 a.m.
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...A.BYT3_ERg--~D
EIR Daily News • Wednesday, July 23, 2025
By EIR News • 23 Jul 2025
View in browser
The Lead
Dare Call It Treason! It Shall Not Prosper!
by Dennis Speed (EIRNS) — Jul. 22, 2025
It is true that Director of National Security Tulsi Gabbard has just called attention, through a series of now-declassified documents, to a 9-year-old story, that she has referred to as “a treasonous conspiracy,” on the part of the 2016 American intelligence establishment, including the then-President Barack Obama. But on behalf of whom is this treason being committed? The Russiagate caper, for example, was instigated by British intelligence, in the form of then-GCHQ Chief Robert Hannigan. That is, a foreign government, the British Empire, interfered to defraud the 2016 American Presidential election, by claiming that Russia hacked the Democratic National Committee.
As journalist Aaron Maté wrote on July 22: “According to newly declassified documents, U.S. intelligence leaders concealed high-level doubts about one of Russiagate’s foundational allegations: that Russia stole and leaked Democratic Party material to help Trump defeat Hillary Clinton. In a September 2016 report that was never made public until now, the NSA and the FBI broke with their intelligence counterparts and expressed ‘low confidence’ in the attribution to Russia. The previously undisclosed dissent about Russia’s alleged hacking activities in the 2016 election is among several revelations released last week by Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s Director of National Intelligence.” But it was British Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) Chief Robert Hannigan and Christopher Steele’s controller, “former” MI6 head Sir Richard Dearlove, that were the instigators and the brains behind it all.
Former UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter responded to these revelations on July 21 on George Galloway’s show: “[W]e’re at a point right now in American British relations where we need to be calling a spade a spade. You are not our friend. In fact, you are our enemy. You facilitated active treason against the sitting President of the United States. Under some circumstances, that would be a casus belli (cause for war)…. And you’re lucky I’m not the president, because I’ll tell you what, you interfere with American democracy to that degree, you will pay a heavy price, as you should. Not you, George. You’re my friend and not the British people. And that’s why we’ll never do this. But your government is the absolute enemy of not just the United States, but all of humanity.”
When looking at “Russiagate,” it is important to see the nature of the treason under consideration; thermonuclear war, after all, is treason against the human race. The present war of NATO against Russia is a war that London’s The Economist had written a script for, in 2007, before Barack Obama was elected to the Presidency. “In the dangerous second decade of the (21st) century, when Vladimir Putin returned for a third term as Russian president and stood poised to invade Ukraine, it was the EU that pushed the Obama administration to threaten massive nuclear retaliation.”
Yesterday, Russian spokeswoman Maria Zhakarova expressed, in her unique way, what this British-instigated march toward folly has actually meant. “Historically, we have done everything possible to build relations with a peaceful and prosperous Germany based on mutual respect. We forgave what no person, no nation, should be expected to forgive. We forgave the deaths of tens of millions of our people. And what did we get in return? What everyone is seeing today….
“To me, the most alarming thing happening in Germany is the complete amnesia regarding its own past. The country has forgotten its recent history, including its reunification. The fact that the country was divided did not happen by some global accident, but as a consequence of the crimes it committed. Germany has forgotten who played the decisive role in making its reunification possible. It was our country, our people, those who had every right not to forgive, but did, who also helped bring the German people back together. Even that has now been betrayed. They have betrayed themselves.”
Is America about to betray itself as well? Will that self-betrayal, given America’s importance, cause a global thermonuclear war? Perhaps the way to look at what Gabbard is calling attention to is, in the context of a larger, chronic problem of “Tory” treasonous behavior in the American Presidency, citing a series of years: 1989, with the Bush 41 presidency and the fall of the Berlin Wall; 1963’s Kennedy assassination; 1945’s April death, in office, of President Franklin Roosevelt and the subsequent unjustified dropping of the atomic bomb in August.
For a moment, then, reverse this perspective. See the American Revolution as the first successful anti-colonial revolution in history, 250 years ago. Then, consider the nearly 600 years of colonialism that is now coming to an end, and the role that the international collaboration known as the American Revolution played in causing that transition to come about. Then, realize that the promise contained in the American 1776 Declaration of Independence is best expressed in the present-day economic aspirations of the true heirs of that experiment—the vast majority of the human race, as assembled in over 100 nations, now called the “Global Majority.”
Yet, the United States has been caused to regard that very grouping of nations, grouped at the moment around the formation called the BRICS, as its enemy. In upholding this wrong idea, the United States commits treason against itself. It is of this that President John Quincy Adams, who occupied that office exactly 200 years ago, warned the Congress four years earlier in his Fourth of July speech in 1821: America “well knows that by once enlisting under other banners than her own, were they even the banners of foreign Independence, she would involve herself beyond the power of extrication, in all the wars of interest and intrigue, of individual avarice, envy, and ambition, which assume the colors and usurp the standard of freedom.”
Fifty years ago, the economist and statesman Lyndon LaRouche, in what is today referred to as his “Oasis Plan,” outlined how to extend justice, not “IMF/World Bank loans,” to Palestine and Southwest Asia, and more generally to the nations of Africa, Asia and Ibero-America, in the form of “advanced technology transfer.” In this way, not only would the crimes of colonialism be addressed, but a new, self-sufficient economic platform would be created, based on technology transfer as expressed in advanced machine tool production and high energy-density physical production in the fields of mining, manufacturing, agriculture, and essential infrastructure, including in the fields of health and education. That would provide the economic foundation for a real new security and development architecture. That is the fight that must be waged in the United Nations now, for the people of Gaza, and for our own souls’ sake.
Contents
Strategic War Danger
- Are U.S. Nukes Back in Britain? (↓)
- Gabbard To Release More Obama 'Russia' Documents (↓)
- Zakharova at Press Conference on Russia-Germany Relations (↓)
- Israel Medical Association Breaks Silence, Demands IDF Obey International Humanitarian Law (↓)
New World Paradigm
- Berlin Conference Covered in Switzerland (↓)
- Xi Jinping: Civilization, Uniting Diverse Cultures Crucial Alternative to War's Destruction (↓)
Collapsing Imperial System
- Israeli Forces Kidnap Palestinian Health Spokesman (↓)
- War Party Backs Smear Ops vs South African Stateswoman Naledi Pandor (↓)
Harley Schlanger Update
Watch The Daily Update with Harley Schlanger, a short video update available every weekday morning from The LaRouche Organization.
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