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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #6,001
  • Aug 9, 2007 11:41pm Aug 9, 2007 11:41pm
Quoting VishalJ
Aus, I know you probably take only major trades .. where there is a good potential for 200 pips or so. I've been trading (small lots) based on the 15 min SI and TFT indicators.. and it works pretty good (for small targets of 10-20 pips, sometimes more) Think that's risky?
if it works for you stick to it. TRy to integrate a larger time frame like 2hr or 1hr to confirm the trend.
  • #6,002
  • Aug 9, 2007 11:43pm Aug 9, 2007 11:43pm
Quoting VishalJ
Oh man, why didn't you use a stop loss? I hope it doesn't go down anymore and goes back up to the level that you bought at.. let's see if this is going to be a quiet Friday or a volatile one.

Check bloomberg.com from time to time - look out for any reports on the current credit situation (banks defaulting, assets being frozen) Anything that can basically spook this market even more - currently it's very vulnerable (all the carry trade pairs) So any bad news tends to drop it down a lot.

On the other hand, it's a Friday.. usually quite a bit of profit taking takes place (maybe later NY session) so if GJ does go down now.. should go up later.. again.. anything can happen. My theory of profit taking can go out the window if the markets decide to dump GJ.
She will probably go up during london and new york and the she will be dumped tomorrow afternoon because nobody wants to hold positions over the weekend because of all the uncertainty. People are getting in and out of this in a hurry!

Be careful!

PS .. I stole someone's signature ... hope you don't mind bmwboyee :-)
  • #6,003
  • Aug 9, 2007 11:47pm Aug 9, 2007 11:47pm
Quoting webstakes
Too bad, I broke my crystal ball.....

Didn't mean to be mean! Are you still holding from 243.....

ha ha very funny

its a hedge
THE TREND IS UR FRIEND
  • #6,004
  • Aug 9, 2007 11:47pm Aug 9, 2007 11:47pm
lol, no worries. if it helps, everyone put it in their sig
  • #6,005
  • Aug 9, 2007 11:50pm Aug 9, 2007 11:50pm
Quoting VishalJ
Oh man, why didn't you use a stop loss? I hope it doesn't go down anymore and goes back up to the level that you bought at.. let's see if this is going to be a quiet Friday or a volatile one.

Check bloomberg.com from time to time - look out for any reports on the current credit situation (banks defaulting, assets being frozen) Anything that can basically spook this market even more - currently it's very vulnerable (all the carry trade pairs) So any bad news tends to drop it down a lot.

On the other hand, it's a Friday.. usually quite a bit of profit taking takes place (maybe later NY session) so if GJ does go down now.. should go up later.. again.. anything can happen. My theory of profit taking can go out the window if the markets decide to dump GJ.

Edit : - Btw, don't feel depressed.. although that's easier said than done. I lost 25 k in 2 days.. at the end of it, I thought I was ready to have a heart attack.. and started thinking about how life was ruined, etc.. but then you calm down.. think of the positive things.. and I take it as a lesson served to me.. for carrying out absolutely stupid trades (ahhh it went up 30 pips.. so it will go up more.. let me buy... or things like.. hmm 242.00 is a barrier.. let me put a trade there, just to discover the price crashing through for another 60 pips beyond that point)

I've lost 25 k, you've probably lost some money.. if professional banks and hedge funds can go bankrupt .. we can make a few mistakes too. Learn from your mistakes, employ stop losses.. don't be greedy.. and don't trade against the trend.


That was a kind letter, Vishal - and so horribly true (for all of us at some time or other, I'm sure!). But don't you think you'd better quickly suggest a stop loss - if this is a long? I personally don't see much chance of significant rise from here... and it's a long, long way down!
  • #6,006
  • Aug 9, 2007 11:53pm Aug 9, 2007 11:53pm
*(JP) JUNE FINAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION MOM: 1.3% V 1.2%E (1.2% PRIOR); YOY: 1.1% V 1.0%E (1.0% PRIOR)
- Capacity Utilization: 105.8 v 105.0 prior<EWJ USD/JPY EUR/JPY GBP/JPY>
  • #6,007
  • Aug 9, 2007 11:55pm Aug 9, 2007 11:55pm
Quoting mktjong
If you set indicators 5 EMA High and Low, you will see price travels between this channel/span. It acts as support and resistance on almost any time frame. Especially during Asian session on 1 hour timeframe.
Opps .. looks like Auslanco already talked about it earlier. It is very true if the price touches 5 ema high it would come down and touches 5 ema low and bounces again especially on 1 hr TF. Unless a very strong momentum pounds it thru.
  • #6,008
  • Aug 9, 2007 11:56pm Aug 9, 2007 11:56pm
Situation looks grim for the longs but beware of the short squeeze!
http://i15.tinypic.com/6gjhtte.jpg
  • #6,009
  • Aug 9, 2007 11:56pm Aug 9, 2007 11:56pm
Well said (APPLAUSE) now why didnt you post this a few months ago

P.S. i had to learn the hard way.


Quoting VishalJ
Oh man, why didn't you use a stop loss? I hope it doesn't go down anymore and goes back up to the level that you bought at.. let's see if this is going to be a quiet Friday or a volatile one.

Check bloomberg.com from time to time - look out for any reports on the current credit situation (banks defaulting, assets being frozen) Anything that can basically spook this market even more - currently it's very vulnerable (all the carry trade pairs) So any bad news tends to drop it down a lot.

On the other hand, it's a Friday.. usually quite a bit of profit taking takes place (maybe later NY session) so if GJ does go down now.. should go up later.. again.. anything can happen. My theory of profit taking can go out the window if the markets decide to dump GJ.

Edit : - Btw, don't feel depressed.. although that's easier said than done. I lost 25 k in 2 days.. at the end of it, I thought I was ready to have a heart attack.. and started thinking about how life was ruined, etc.. but then you calm down.. think of the positive things.. and I take it as a lesson served to me.. for carrying out absolutely stupid trades (ahhh it went up 30 pips.. so it will go up more.. let me buy... or things like.. hmm 242.00 is a barrier.. let me put a trade there, just to discover the price crashing through for another 60 pips beyond that point)

I've lost 25 k, you've probably lost some money.. if professional banks and hedge funds can go bankrupt .. we can make a few mistakes too. Learn from your mistakes, employ stop losses.. don't be greedy.. and don't trade against the trend.
  • #6,010
  • Aug 9, 2007 11:58pm Aug 9, 2007 11:58pm
well gang, i am off to bed. i took my 4 lots and closed each of them for an avg of 20 pips each. not bad for a scalp. see everyone in the a.m.

thanks again auslanco.
  • #6,011
  • Aug 10, 2007 12:00am Aug 10, 2007 12:00am
just read about asian markets falling today, wonder what sort of impact it has on gbpjpy

"Asian markets have faltered in early trading a day after markets in New York and London suffered losses amid fears of a global credit crunch. Tokyo shares fell almost 3% after the market opened, the Nikkei index dropping by more than 400 points."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6939757.stm
  • #6,012
  • Aug 10, 2007 12:02am Aug 10, 2007 12:02am
Quoting bmwboyee
well gang, i am off to bed. i took my 4 lots and closed each of them for an avg of 20 pips each. not bad for a scalp. see everyone in the a.m.

thanks again auslanco.
You're off to bed, I'm about to pick the kids up from school and Auslanco is probably thinking about lunch right now - the internet is an interesting office.

  • #6,013
  • Aug 10, 2007 12:08am Aug 10, 2007 12:08am
*(jp) July Consumer Confidence: 44.6 V 46.0e; Households: 44.4 V 46.0e
  • #6,014
  • Aug 10, 2007 12:22am Aug 10, 2007 12:22am
Wondering if this QQE indicator can set off an alert (i.e: when 30 min cross, etc) would be very nice http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
If MT4 has this indicator , I can program it to add the alert feature or even develop an EA http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #6,015
  • Aug 10, 2007 12:23am Aug 10, 2007 12:23am
Quoting PipBuLL007
Well said (APPLAUSE) now why didnt you post this a few months ago

P.S. i had to learn the hard way.
Because I was constantly making 10% per month, trading fundamentals. Then I decided to jump on the GBP/JPY bandwagon without really knowing what I was doing (I'm primarily a fundamental trader)

It's amazing how all the profits I accumulated, and more.. got wiped out in 48 hours.. which showed me that anything can happen in this market. People say a 1000 pip spike or drop is not possible.. I say it is.. the sky's the limit.
  • #6,016
  • Aug 10, 2007 12:38am Aug 10, 2007 12:38am
fake out?
  • #6,017
  • Aug 10, 2007 12:41am Aug 10, 2007 12:41am
There appears to be solid support at 237.70.

Quoting PipBuLL007
fake out?
  • #6,018
  • Aug 10, 2007 12:44am Aug 10, 2007 12:44am
i had a SL on the 238.70 region earlier on..

currently, watching to see when is the next big move..

GJ is unpredictable.. and besides, end of the week...

are most of you guys holding shorts at this time?
  • #6,019
  • Aug 10, 2007 12:46am Aug 10, 2007 12:46am
I'm holding a few longs in the 240.xx range. Waiting for the price to go back up.
Period : 26 Months Account Balance : +264% Max DD : 14.2%
  • #6,020
  • Aug 10, 2007 12:47am Aug 10, 2007 12:47am
auslanco, are you waiting for the SI on 1h to go above the 50 line and come back down? or 30m SI to just cross down then 15,30,1,daily all will be down again..
Trade what you see, not what you think.
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