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  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 20, 2025 9:58am Jul 20, 2025 9:58am
Quoting Bones
Fed funds at 4.33% and less inflation at 2.7% yield is a 1.63% real rate. The real rate on a ten-year is less than 2% right now. Any large move down takes us to negative real rates on the world reserve for no reason. The dollar would tank, and stocks would fly. It could be the long bonds would go up. It could be that data gets in the way, but even with the uptick, there was no let-up from Trump. I still think this is the biggest dollar story out there. But there can't be another bearish week on cable. {image} {image}
Pound is finished. US fundamentals are better then U.K. Pound vs USD is going bearish 1.23, even lower. Pound has weakened for the past 17 years.
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  • #2
  • Jul 20, 2025 2:30pm Jul 20, 2025 2:30pm
Quoting se7en777
{quote} as someone who isn’t a trader like you guys but follows this forum to learn, but I hold a considerable amount (6figs) of USD earning interest (whilst being a UK citizen in the UK), I sure hope this is true - I had the button ready to click to get out of half my position back in April when it hit 1.27 briefly (got out previously at 1.23), since that moment GBP has gone beyond bullish and it’s cost me a fortune (on paper), so I’m holding out to exit 75% of my position of USD if/when it strengthens.
Hi,

Thanks for replying. I can tell you that I am a trader but more investor. But, Looking at fundamentals for UK and USA, you can tell that USA is obviously doing better no matter what. Gbpusd reacting bullish, because of tariffs, and Trump coming in the office with other political tensions. USD has taken a beat, but I think that is over. UK data recently came out and the numbers are not good at all. This is why we see Gbpusd turning bearish and dollar is a buy. This is where Pound is heading down to 1.23, and if data is still bad, 1.12. Pound is very weak.
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  • #3
  • Jul 20, 2025 4:27pm Jul 20, 2025 4:27pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} Gold vs USD this year range is straight up 33% Gold v GBP this year range is straight up 25% Both are very ugly economies with totally abused fiat. What's different is that Trump, and he's pushing markets around without a care in the world.
Bones it is ok when you are wrong. It is even ok when you admit you are wrong. Pound is bearish, Dollar is bullish, that is the end of story.
  • #4
  • Edited 8:27pm Jul 20, 2025 5:41pm | Edited 8:27pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} The UK has tracked its major EU peers or better. The UK has a 5Y average deficit of 130 billion That's a 5.2%pa average deficit based on 2023 GDP The US has a 5Y average deficit of 2.598 trillion That's a 9.6%pa average deficit based on 2023 GDP -Charts to back it up are attached. Take the deficits away to see the actual numbers when comparing, America is a runaway train right now. {image} {image}
USA gdp is #1 so is their military. USD is bullish now, and pound is bearish. You are wrong about pound still being bullish. End of story. GBPUSD is bearish.
  • #5
  • Edited 8:48am Jul 21, 2025 8:29am | Edited 8:48am
Quoting fontu
{quote} Ok weekly range before confirm ! Too early bounce may too early fail and hold as bear continue. Anyway bounce was little exaggerated and watching fresh top failure signal at 3466, confirm 3445 ! Let's see And pa remain the same as on the morning , just increased risk. May go further range up before settle the dust possible ! Specially around 3420 support zone ! {image} {image}
Gbpusd is bearish. Pound is been bearish for years. It is no longer a strong currency.
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  • #6
  • Jul 21, 2025 9:11am Jul 21, 2025 9:11am
Quoting Bones
{quote} You forgot No 1 shoppers, in the WORLD {image}
The United States has a significantly larger nominal GDP than the United Kingdom, with the US nominal GDP in 2023 estimated at approximately $27.72 trillion compared to the UK's nominal GDP of about $3.38 trillion in the same year. The US economy is the largest in the world by nominal GDP, while the UK's economy is the sixth-largest.

There you go, now you have learned something new today. UK economy is good, but does not stand a chance against US. Gbpusd is bearish.
  • #7
  • Last Post: Jul 21, 2025 10:18am Jul 21, 2025 10:18am
Quoting Polimini
{quote} they were printing money to appease the politicians, trump did benefit from all that artificial economic growth, you can't have your cake and eat it.
USA data would disagree with you. They seem to be doing well. That is what matters in trading and investing. Everything else, is just debate and talks.
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