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The Swamp

  • #123,901
  • Edited 5:39am Jul 20, 2025 5:12am | Edited 5:39am
Quoting johncen
{quote} yes that large red candle might take weeks to develop if it plays out. I was expecting a wick and maybe a week or two within this area before we see that big red candle. It might not come and go back up. There are bull targets still unreached above 1830 i dnt know what might trigger that drop that i want to see but will see what happened in the next month or 2
Monday often is a pump opposite day.A weaker usd on the gbp eur and chf early may be a headfake. The euro may be limited to 1654.. chf .7887. gbp 1.3450/51.. Or near +- those levels with a pool of liquid. EU wise the 1.16179 area may be enough to push it to 1.1654. Opening below 1617x.. It may be unable to bounce, if it did it may be limited the 15/30 pips. My hope is it cleanly reaches 1654. Opening above 1618 is better for the Monday rise . Don't take that to me being bullish,, its the opposite. i think its going to drop next week into the 1470/80 area. It just has a chance to hit 1654 first.. 1654 can attract, and slap it down 185 pips after.That may be enough to spark a larger fall. That can be a big red displacement candle. With the bond market, it can also just be a wick.. right back to 1654
Don't think the tariff news cant get worse or we dont bomb a little country. Deflection from Fantasy Island can get people killed. The USD will just be collateral damage. Its all about the plane. The orange guy seems to be in deflection mode.
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  • #123,902
  • Jul 20, 2025 9:43am Jul 20, 2025 9:43am
I have found FX book closer to reality. But I may be wrong. This upcoming week has a shot at the upper 14xx. Fair value could be 1374
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,903
  • Jul 20, 2025 4:12pm Jul 20, 2025 4:12pm
Quoting gatorinla
I have found FX book closer to reality. But I may be wrong. This upcoming week has a shot at the upper 14xx. Fair value could be 1374 {image}
we have a little gap up it seems may help with your 1654
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,904
  • Edited 4:28pm Jul 20, 2025 4:17pm | Edited 4:28pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} we have a little gap up it seems may help with your 1654
it dipped to 1618 but the spread was too much
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,905
  • Jul 20, 2025 4:43pm Jul 20, 2025 4:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} it dipped to 1618 but the spread was too much {image}
market open is hard to trade my spread is 15 pips there is no way that i can jump in
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,906
  • Jul 20, 2025 4:47pm Jul 20, 2025 4:47pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} market open is hard to trade my spread is 15 pips there is no way that i can jump in
The first hour is tough on spreads. I'm down to 3 now, but its left 1618.. So I missed it
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,907
  • Jul 20, 2025 5:00pm Jul 20, 2025 5:00pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} That is always possible. But based on it and the week 15-30.. past moves dont show 1655 breaking. A gap up, or + 1624 open could open some up.. But it still has to beat 1654... That may not be easy {image}
The open was 1624.. that puts 1654 just in the 15/30 pips range
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,908
  • Jul 20, 2025 5:04pm Jul 20, 2025 5:04pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The first hour is tough on spreads. I'm down to 3 now, but its left 1618.. So I missed it
I'm still getting bad spreads on yen pairs...usually after the first hour it's fine. Argh.
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  • #123,909
  • Jul 20, 2025 5:05pm Jul 20, 2025 5:05pm
my spread went to 4.. That's wider than usual after the first hour..Something must be up
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,910
  • Jul 20, 2025 5:11pm Jul 20, 2025 5:11pm
Quoting gatorinla
my spread went to 4.. That's wider than usual after the first hour..Something must be up
Indeed....I thought I was insane. So it's for you too?
I'm on IC Markets, what about you? Just curious.
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  • #123,911
  • Jul 20, 2025 5:14pm Jul 20, 2025 5:14pm
finally back to normal
IC etc
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,912
  • Jul 20, 2025 5:31pm Jul 20, 2025 5:31pm
doing a little experiment here to see if support is 1627 atm
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,913
  • Jul 20, 2025 5:38pm Jul 20, 2025 5:38pm
if it takes 1618, it may fall.. lets see if 1627 recovers
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,914
  • Jul 20, 2025 6:55pm Jul 20, 2025 6:55pm
Quoting gatorinla
if it takes 1618, it may fall.. lets see if 1627 recovers {image}
holding so far but there is also some resistance near 1635
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,915
  • Jul 20, 2025 6:59pm Jul 20, 2025 6:59pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} holding so far but there is also some resistance near 1635
I dont know whats at 1635. i think Asia could respect 1627. (Maybe even 1628/29) .I hope enough to pull it to 1654
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,916
  • Jul 20, 2025 7:14pm Jul 20, 2025 7:14pm
I know some will have 1647 as a r. It should include 1654
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,917
  • Jul 20, 2025 9:03pm Jul 20, 2025 9:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I dont know whats at 1635. i think Asia could respect 1627. (Maybe even 1628/29) .I hope enough to pull it to 1654 {image}
that is where the weekly pivot is.

with pa now closing under 1617/18, maybe we will start falling.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,918
  • Jul 20, 2025 9:14pm Jul 20, 2025 9:14pm
Checking if usdx can stand above 98.50
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,919
  • Jul 20, 2025 10:13pm Jul 20, 2025 10:13pm
Quoting johncen
Checking if usdx can stand above 98.50
It can suck to miss an entree. I need to wait for 1654,, or near. just a little pump late asia into early london..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,920
  • Jul 21, 2025 4:15am Jul 21, 2025 4:15am
I had a sell signal.. So i sold a little below 1654.. but it still may reach it. I didnt want to take a chance on not getting anything
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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