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(binned per thread starter’s request) A Measured Dislocation

  • #21
  • Jul 18, 2025 10:24pm Jul 18, 2025 10:24pm
I have few ideas on how to make this work...I will give first clue, ATR of ENQ and YM comes to mind for now. ENQ went outside of ATR for long direction and stretched out and YM is still in the middle of it's own ATR, as an example.
Buy YM as ENQ is stretched. I would like to hear few more ideas here, before I reveal the t o t a l(echo on the word "total") technique.

O Maaaaaaaaan, I better let others participate.
  • #22
  • Jul 18, 2025 10:31pm Jul 18, 2025 10:31pm
Quoting driven18
I have few ideas on how to make this work...I will give first clue, ATR of ENQ and YM comes to mind for now. ENQ went outside of ATR for long direction and stretched out and YM is still in the middle of it's own ATR, as an example. Buy YM as ENQ is stretched. I would like to hear few more ideas here, before I reveal the t o t a l(echo on the word "total") technique. O Maaaaaaaaan, I better let others participate.
Interesting angle — using ATR to gauge stretch can work when one leg runs hotter than the other. The tricky part is knowing whether that difference is meaningful or just temporary noise. Without something that gauges relative imbalance more objectively, it’s hard to filter the real setups from the false ones.

Looking forward to seeing the t o t a l technique though.

I must admit this is rather entertaining for a trading nerd like myself. Almost like a unique thought experiment for other traders.
.
  • #23
  • Jul 18, 2025 10:35pm Jul 18, 2025 10:35pm
Quoting MachineLearn
{quote} Interesting angle — using ATR to gauge stretch can work when one leg runs hotter than the other. The tricky part is knowing whether that difference is meaningful or just temporary noise. Without something that gauges relative imbalance more objectively, it’s hard to filter the real setups from the false ones. Looking forward to seeing the t o t a l technique though. I must admit this is rather entertaining for a trading nerd like myself. Almost like a unique thought experiment for other traders. .
Will you sing me a song for t o t a l technique?
  • #24
  • Jul 18, 2025 10:36pm Jul 18, 2025 10:36pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} Will you sing me a song for t o t a l technique?


I'll let someone else do the honors, I'm enjoying my technique.
  • #25
  • Jul 19, 2025 4:58am Jul 19, 2025 4:58am
The Famous Dane Tom Hougaard use this technique. Not following specifically any indicators, but he knows when something happen on NASDAQ, then US30 will follow or visa versa - unless there are reasons to other behaves.

Tom works 24/7 on trading and when he sees a pattern it is because he has printed stacks of historic charts and investigated the theory in depth. His weekend goes with that work.

Therefore, I am sure that you are right Machin about you new method.

You say we do not know when far is the right far away. It is guessing. Yes, but when you know something will come, then just wait for a Pinbar or anything else that will start the activity you expect.

I am following this thread with interest, but not actively participating in it, because I am busy elsewhere.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #26
  • Jul 19, 2025 9:21am Jul 19, 2025 9:21am
Quoting RiskFighter
The Famous Dane Tom Hougaard use this technique. Not following specifically any indicators, but he knows when something happen on NASDAQ, then US30 will follow or visa versa - unless there are reasons to other behaves. Tom works 24/7 on trading and when he sees a pattern it is because he has printed stacks of historic charts and investigated the theory in depth. His weekend goes with that work. Therefore, I am sure that you are right Machin about you new method. You say we do not know when far is the right far away. It is guessing. Yes, but when...
It’s less about pattern recognition or price action triggers and more about quantifying the imbalance itself. There’s no guessing — entries are based on measurable extremes in the relationship, not just anticipation.

Appreciate you stopping by, always welcomed.
  • #27
  • Jul 19, 2025 9:43am Jul 19, 2025 9:43am
Quoting MachineLearn
{quote} It’s less about pattern recognition or price action triggers and more about quantifying the imbalance itself. There’s no guessing — entries are based on measurable extremes in the relationship, not just anticipation. Appreciate you stopping by, always welcomed.
Lets see what happens Monday, maybe you can comment live on the time of exact imbalance between 2 and show a chart with a trade placement(demo is fine), this way, I can see what tools can be used to measure the imbalance. Because you may become my "buddy", I will spend time on matching the tools to your idea.

P.S. And just in case it is needed, I do sing well, my wife always says I have a great vocal voice.
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  • #28
  • Jul 19, 2025 12:50pm Jul 19, 2025 12:50pm
So, if i were to lean towards a (cumulative) frequency distribution where i measure the frequencies of the 'gap occurances' (lets measure them in ATRs for normalizations sake) i would have a measurable entity and i would also know how rare the current measured gap is compared to historic observations.
Is this getting closer to your 'thing' ;-)

Please note i hardly ever make a post but this thread struck a chord and both you (ML) as well as D18 provide for good reading (even when i do not always understand why some people react so .. retentively to it)
  • #29
  • Edited 1:09pm Jul 19, 2025 12:58pm | Edited 1:09pm
Quoting forex-nl
So, if i were to lean towards a (cumulative) frequency distribution where i measure the frequencies of the 'gap occurances' (lets measure them in ATRs for normalizations sake) i would have a measurable entity and i would also know how rare the current measured gap is compared to historic observations. Is this getting closer to your 'thing' ;-) Please note i hardly ever make a post but this thread struck a chord and both you (ML) as well as D18 provide for good reading (even when i do not always understand why some people react so .. retentively...
Noooooooow you're getting it

Glad it struck a chord, got your juices flowing

And think I might know who you're referring to lol
  • #30
  • Edited 2:21pm Jul 19, 2025 1:21pm | Edited 2:21pm
Quoting forex-nl
So, if i were to lean towards a (cumulative) frequency distribution where i measure the frequencies of the 'gap occurances' (lets measure them in ATRs for normalizations sake) i would have a measurable entity and i would also know how rare the current measured gap is compared to historic observations. Is this getting closer to your 'thing' ;-) Please note i hardly ever make a post but this thread struck a chord and both you (ML) as well as D18 provide for good reading (even when i do not always understand why some people react so .. retentively...
I will explain - they are Playa Haters. I know of at least one that Machine is also familiar with.

He became unhinged and a bit pathetic lately. He chose to ban people and then talk badly about them without people being able to respond to him on his thread.
That is pathetic. If any doubts who it is, his thread is my latest unsubscribe.

@forex-nl, I appreciate your being my sub and your understanding.
  • #31
  • Jul 19, 2025 2:12pm Jul 19, 2025 2:12pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} I will explain - they are Playa Haters. I know of at least one that Machine is also familiar with. He became unhinged and a bit pathetic lately. He chose to ban people and then talk badly about them without people being able to respond to him on his thread. That is pathetic. @forex-nl, I appreciate your being my sub and your understanding.
Oh well, what can i say .. Nothing, those days are in my past .. I leave that subject with the remark that thinking outside the box (or thread?) and voicing that is not always appreciated. It gets worse with smaller boxes ..

@ML
Have i missed something fundamental or would you say the description nails it >90%?
Do you use a piece of code to continuously track the status or did you put together a sheet and worked it out that way?
Already working on something but i thought i would just ask.
  • #32
  • Jul 19, 2025 2:27pm Jul 19, 2025 2:27pm
Quoting forex-nl
{quote} Oh well, what can i say .. Nothing, those days are in my past .. I leave that subject with the remark that thinking outside the box (or thread?) and voicing that is not always appreciated. It gets worse with smaller boxes .. @ML Have i missed something fundamental or would you say the description nails it >90%? Do you use a piece of code to continuously track the status or did you put together a sheet and worked it out that way? Already working on something but i thought i would just ask.
You’re definitely close — you’ve captured the core dynamic that makes the approach work. There are ways to streamline the process and cut down on manual effort, especially when it comes to tracking how the relationship shifts over time. Once that structure is in place, the signals become much clearer and easier to act on.

A quick preface..

Trust me when I say, I hate being this guarded. I usually don’t mind sharing a trading system when I know there's still a lot of refinement needed — it feels more fair to open it up and improve it together as a community.

But this thread is a little different. It’s more of a personal journal, so I feel justified in keeping things close to the chest — even if it feels a bit strange.

If next week’s trades show that the system isn’t as profitable as I thought or starts breaking down, I’ll be open to revealin tog all the mechanics so we can work on it collaboratively. However, this is definitely a system that needs forward testing, and I'll be using this journal as a place to monitor performance pending results.

However, if it continues to deliver the results it’s been showing so far, I’ll likely remain guarded and simply continue posting for inspiration, if nothing else.

Definitely eager for Monday to come
  • #33
  • Jul 19, 2025 2:35pm Jul 19, 2025 2:35pm
Quoting MachineLearn
{quote} You’re definitely close — you’ve captured the core dynamic that makes the approach work. There are ways to streamline the process and cut down on manual effort, especially when it comes to tracking how the relationship shifts over time. Once that structure is in place, the signals become much clearer and easier to act on. A quick preface.. Trust me when I say, I hate being this guarded. I usually don’t mind sharing a trading system when I know there's still a lot of refinement needed — it feels more fair to open it up and improve it together...
Well, I sure hope it deliver the results - you as no one else deserve that...but just in case it not as profitable as you though it was...well, you know.

As you know, trading is not only my business but also a greatest hobby, outside of techno raves and nice restaurants. Good Luck, will continue to support you and if i ever make a dollar out of it, I will sing it and send you the video .
  • #34
  • Jul 19, 2025 2:49pm Jul 19, 2025 2:49pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} Well, I sure hope it deliver the results - you as no one else deserve that...but just in case it not as profitable as you though it was...well, you know. As you know, trading is not only my business but also a greatest hobby, outside of techno raves and nice restaurants. Good Luck, will continue to support you and if i ever make a dollar out of it, I will sing it and send you the video .


I look forward to that one in a million voice. You're definitely one of the few I trust brother, but let's see where time takes us.
  • #35
  • Jul 19, 2025 3:16pm Jul 19, 2025 3:16pm
@ML
A CumDist with absolute numbers is of course one way to deal with the 'odd one out concept' but i started to wonder about the same concept but based on the rolling correlation between the two assets. As in looking for a cumDist in the deviations vs the rolling correlation and getting the anomalies from there.
Now that i'm writing this i'm wonderingas well whether this would insulate the whole thing from TF nonsense .. ?
  • #36
  • Jul 19, 2025 3:19pm Jul 19, 2025 3:19pm
Quoting forex-nl
@ML A CumDist with absolute numbers is of course one way to deal with the 'odd one out concept' but i started to wonder about the same concept but based on the rolling correlation between the two assets. As in looking for a cumDist in the deviations vs the rolling correlation and getting the anomalies from there. Now that i'm writing this i'm wonderingas well whether this would insulate the whole thing from TF nonsense .. ?
Correlation-based filtering can definitely add value, but on its own, it doesn’t give you a full tradeable edge. It’s solid as a supporting layer — not the foundation. However, you did give me something to think about. You're a clever cookie.

DM me.
  • #37
  • Jul 19, 2025 3:27pm Jul 19, 2025 3:27pm
DM me? Yo, brotherly love above I see, do not forget about Driven, just in case you need that extra touch of pizzaz of live technical trading. Damn, I am on the roll today!
  • #38
  • Jul 19, 2025 3:32pm Jul 19, 2025 3:32pm
Quoting driven18
DM me? Yo, brotherly love above I see, do not forget about Driven, just in case you need that extra touch of pizzaz of live technical trading. Damn, I am on the roll today!
  • #39
  • Jul 19, 2025 4:28pm Jul 19, 2025 4:28pm
Quoting MachineLearn
{quote} Correlation-based filtering can definitely add value, but on its own, it doesn’t give you a full tradeable edge. It’s solid as a supporting layer — not the foundation. However, you did give me something to think about. You're a clever cookie. DM me.
NO correlation, clear.
Would there also be a time element involved? Since time is central to the markets (no chart without progression of time, just a vertical line) i can imagine that time also has to factor into the cumDist. Because in order to benefit from an anomaly it has to disappear again and that is where time comes in. The longer the 'return to normal' takes the higher the chance of a violent return (small like a nice addition point).
  • #40
  • Jul 19, 2025 4:37pm Jul 19, 2025 4:37pm
Quoting forex-nl
{quote} NO correlation, clear. Would there also be a time element involved? Since time is central to the markets (no chart without progression of time, just a vertical line) i can imagine that time also has to factor into the cumDist. Because in order to benefit from an anomaly it has to disappear again and that is where time comes in. The longer the 'return to normal' takes the higher the chance of a violent return (small like a nice addition point).
It's more about frequency, not duration.

I'd ask you to DM me with anymore specific inquiries related to the system.

However, feel free to post any of your own findings.
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