(binned per thread starter’s request) A Measured Dislocation | Forex Factory

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(binned per thread starter’s request) A Measured Dislocation

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Jul 21, 2025 1:13pm Jul 18, 2025 12:46pm | Edited Jul 21, 2025 1:13pm
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  • #2
  • Jul 18, 2025 1:07pm Jul 18, 2025 1:07pm
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  • #3
  • Jul 18, 2025 1:25pm Jul 18, 2025 1:25pm
Taking the system to futures from CFDs
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  • #4
  • Jul 18, 2025 1:25pm Jul 18, 2025 1:25pm
That's it for today, continue posting Monday.
  • #5
  • Jul 18, 2025 2:08pm Jul 18, 2025 2:08pm
This sounds interesting.
Subscribed.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #6
  • Edited Jul 19, 2025 2:44pm Jul 18, 2025 2:54pm | Edited Jul 19, 2025 2:44pm
Quoting RiskFighter
This sounds interesting. Subscribed.
Interesting indeed, first day was incredible, every trade winning.

I'm sure you could look at trades and get a gist of what I'm doing.
  • #7
  • Jul 18, 2025 2:55pm Jul 18, 2025 2:55pm
Just want to make sure these trade were coincidence and not accurate of typical performance.

Usually the goal of publicly sharing system for me is to refine and critique it with the community, but if it's performing extraordinarily well already then I don't find that as necessary.

I will use it as a means of accountability for rule application and inspiration to others.

Not opposed to outlining the general rules if there's interest however

Have a great weekend!
  • #8
  • Edited 4:59pm Jul 18, 2025 4:39pm | Edited 4:59pm
Quoting MachineLearn
Just want to make sure these trade were coincidence and not accurate of typical performance. Usually the goal of publicly sharing system for me is to refine and critique it with the community, but if it's performing extraordinarily well already then I don't find that as necessary. I will use it as a means of accountability for rule application and inspiration to others. Not opposed to outlining the general rules if there's interest however Have a great weekend!
(In Bold) not being humble? Let me played it up to you, outline the rules, outline the rules, outline the rules...enough interest?

It was a great week, NVDA hit a new high, my main holding plus futures markets were also alright.

@MachineLearn and @RiskFighter, have a great weekend and Machine, I am always interested in what you have cooked up. Cheers
  • #9
  • Jul 18, 2025 4:54pm Jul 18, 2025 4:54pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} (In Bold) not being humble? Let me played it up to you, outline the rules, outline the rules, outline the rules...enough interest? It was a great week, NVDA hit a new high, my main holding plus futures markets were also alright. @MachineLean and @RiskFighter, have a great weekend and Machine, I am always interested in what you have cooked up. Cheers
Not quite enough, write me a song too.
  • #10
  • Jul 18, 2025 4:55pm Jul 18, 2025 4:55pm
Quoting MachineLearn
{quote} Not quite enough, write me a song too.
I like to say a bad word, that starts with Bi***, but I will not
  • #11
  • Jul 18, 2025 4:57pm Jul 18, 2025 4:57pm
Quoting MachineLearn
{quote} Not quite enough, write me a song too.
Fly me to the moon and let me play amongst the pips...

Someone else please continue.
Please join me in my journey for 100 perfect trades. See my journal!
  • #12
  • Jul 18, 2025 4:59pm Jul 18, 2025 4:59pm
Quoting fleps
{quote} Fly me to the moon and let me play amongst the pips... Someone else please continue.
Somebody help we're halfway there
  • #13
  • Jul 18, 2025 5:16pm Jul 18, 2025 5:16pm
Quoting MachineLearn
Not going to detail the step-by-step but I can outline the fundamentals This strategy trades NAS100 and US30 — two indices that usually move in sync. Sometimes, one gets ahead of the other. When that gap gets unusually wide, the system takes opposite trades on both, aiming to profit as they snap back in line. It doesn’t predict direction — just waits for rare imbalances and catches the reset. Risk is capped, and edge comes from how often these two return to their usual rhythm.
Pardon my crude understanding, but it would be something like the following (all numbers arbitary of course)?

NAS100 is +2%
US30 is only +1%.

You will short NAS100 and long US30. Basis is that they should converge towards +1.5%.

Not questioning your methods, just want to know how to use it but how do you know where the mid-point is? I mean if there's earnings and Nividia soars, NAS100 is just gonna go on a run and I don't think it will "converge to a mid-point". Where am I wrong?
Please join me in my journey for 100 perfect trades. See my journal!
  • #14
  • Jul 18, 2025 5:19pm Jul 18, 2025 5:19pm
Quoting fleps
{quote} Pardon my crude understanding, but it would be something like the following (all numbers arbitary of course)? NAS100 is +2% US30 is only +1%. You will short NAS100 and long US30. Basis is that they should converge towards +1.5%. Not questioning your methods, just want to know how to use it but how do you know where the mid-point is? I mean if there's earnings and Nividia soars, NAS100 is just gonna go on a run and I don't think it will "converge to a mid-point". Where am I wrong?
A bit oversimplified but more or less correct
  • #15
  • Jul 18, 2025 5:20pm Jul 18, 2025 5:20pm
Quoting fleps
{quote} Pardon my crude understanding, but it would be something like the following (all numbers arbitary of course)? NAS100 is +2% US30 is only +1%. You will short NAS100 and long US30. Basis is that they should converge towards +1.5%. Not questioning your methods, just want to know how to use it but how do you know where the mid-point is? I mean if there's earnings and Nividia soars, NAS100 is just gonna go on a run and I don't think it will "converge to a mid-point". Where am I wrong?
The system doesn’t use a fixed midpoint — it tracks the average relationship between NAS100 and US30 over time.

It doesn’t react to price alone, but to how statistically unusual the current spread is based on their historical behavior.

In cases like earnings (e.g. Nvidia), if there’s a clear fundamental reason for divergence, the system typically won’t trigger — or we avoid trading during those times altogether.

The goal isn’t to guess direction, but to exploit rare imbalances when the relationship breaks from its usual rhythm without cause.
  • #16
  • Jul 18, 2025 5:21pm Jul 18, 2025 5:21pm
Quoting MachineLearn
{quote} A bit oversimplified but more or less correct
Thank you. Yea, I said it was crude; I'm trying to understand.

I'm not sure how it works though. Inherently, the PE ratio of both differs, which might trigger different magnitudes of movements.

I'm happy to follow you along and see what happens. It could be just my small mind not being able to comprehend how to utilize it.

Thank you.

EDIT: Nvm, this was covered by MachineLearn in the post above.
Please join me in my journey for 100 perfect trades. See my journal!
  • #17
  • Jul 18, 2025 7:37pm Jul 18, 2025 7:37pm
You just watch the nominal spread, wait for a significant deviation and then trade the mean reversion. Important: only trade major moves and always trade with the flow/trend. Then take profits fast and often, and never violate your stoploss. There will always be another chance.

The challenge is to either find a platform which gives you the data in a nice and usable way (rare), or to write your own visualization logic.
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It takes blood, sweat and enough tears to wash away the blood.
  • #18
  • Jul 18, 2025 7:42pm Jul 18, 2025 7:42pm
Quoting emmzett
You just watch the nominal spread, wait for a significant deviation and then trade the mean reversion. Important: only trade major moves and always trade with the flow/trend. Then take profits fast and often. The challenge is to either find a platform which gives you the data in a nice and usable way (rare), or to write your own visualization logic. {image}
It's on the right track — tracking the price gap between NAS100 and US30 and waiting for it to stretch unusually far, then trading the snapback. But it’s missing one key piece: it doesn’t measure how unusual that gap actually is. Without that, you’re just guessing what “far” means.
  • #19
  • Jul 18, 2025 7:56pm Jul 18, 2025 7:56pm
Quoting MachineLearn
{quote} It's on the right track — tracking the price gap between NAS100 and US30 and waiting for it to stretch unusually far, then trading the snapback. But it’s missing one key piece: it doesn’t measure how unusual that gap actually is. Without that, you’re just guessing what “far” means.
For that you zoom out and use your favourite channel indicator, whatever that is:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It takes blood, sweat and enough tears to wash away the blood.
  • #20
  • Jul 18, 2025 8:03pm Jul 18, 2025 8:03pm
Quoting emmzett
{quote} For that you zoom out and use your favourite channel indicator, whatever that is: {image}
Not quite, but all methodology welcomed.

A channel indicator tracks price movement within recent highs and lows, showing where price sits inside that range. It does not measure statistical deviation or the rarity of a relationship between two assets. My method calculates how unusual the spread is based on historical behavior, not just where price is located.
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