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The Swamp

  • #123,881
  • Jul 18, 2025 6:41am Jul 18, 2025 6:41am
Quoting johncen
{quote} it is common that we get some range trading at this level while both bull and bear trying to take control
If it losses 1636,, with a fews before lc.. it improves shot at 1687.. If above 1637 its probably going higher first. If it falls to 1587, it still can run to 1675 1707 today. meaning early Asia, early London Monday. Either way its probably going higher 1675/1707.. Void if sustained below 1586.
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  • #123,882
  • Jul 18, 2025 9:20am Jul 18, 2025 9:20am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I didnt get the retrace i wanted.. pa i think will go 40/80 pips higher.. The problem being the s/l can be 1582. If one can find a better s/l higher it may be worth it.. for 1675/1715.. A light sl is about 1632. but its close it may get wicked.. 1613 another 1602 are others.. I expect a bullish day to 1675 or better.. 1708 can pull pa to it.. That's the 80+ pips..
It got as high as 1672.. It looks like LC will close within a few pips of 1.1658.7.. So it likely not going down. More up looks likely its at 1651 atm .. that may be free pips to 1658
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  • #123,883
  • Edited 10:24am Jul 18, 2025 9:34am | Edited 10:24am
I had the wrong number.. 1655.6...Not 1658! Above it sustained may go higher.. 1655.6 may resist.. but its also a breakpoint.. Bullish above
The earlier indication suggested 1675/1707.. So breaking here can run run.. Breaking down is probably below 1647. Its a tight area.. A good chance for some action..
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  • #123,884
  • Jul 18, 2025 10:27am Jul 18, 2025 10:27am
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  • #123,885
  • Jul 18, 2025 12:33pm Jul 18, 2025 12:33pm
some light support could be at 1.16181
bulls were unable to take 1655 earlier. Bears would likely take -1618.. if not may attempt 1655 again. A day close above 1655 points to a rise after open Sunday
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  • #123,886
  • Jul 18, 2025 12:48pm Jul 18, 2025 12:48pm
Quoting gatorinla
some light support could be at 1.16181 bulls were unable to take 1655 earlier. Bears would likely take -1618.. if not may attempt 1655 again. A day close above 1655 points to a rise after open Sunday {image}
the initial hit. shows a speed bump support
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  • #123,887
  • Jul 18, 2025 1:01pm Jul 18, 2025 1:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the initial hit. shows a speed bump support {image}
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  • #123,888
  • Jul 18, 2025 2:46pm Jul 18, 2025 2:46pm
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  • #123,889
  • Jul 18, 2025 3:12pm Jul 18, 2025 3:12pm
Quoting gatorinla
{image}
seems like they have added both longs and shorts?
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,890
  • Jul 18, 2025 5:37pm Jul 18, 2025 5:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
some light support could be at 1.16181 bulls were unable to take 1655 earlier. Bears would likely take -1618.. if not may attempt 1655 again. A day close above 1655 points to a rise after open Sunday {image}
this 1618 held a week and day close..But so did 1655. One will need to break.
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  • #123,891
  • Jul 18, 2025 7:42pm Jul 18, 2025 7:42pm
looking to short Sunday, but may take this long first..
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  • #123,892
  • Jul 18, 2025 8:16pm Jul 18, 2025 8:16pm
Quoting gatorinla
looking to short Sunday, but may take this long first.. {image}
It may gap down.. This rise on the chart may be limited to 12/30 pips.. A gap down lessons a rising bounce off 1618.. On the week rough target 150 pips from open price. That suggest a lower low next week.. if open price is below 1618 in a gap. pa may hit 1470s next week
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  • #123,893
  • Jul 19, 2025 3:48am Jul 19, 2025 3:48am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It may gap down.. This rise on the chart may be limited to 12/30 pips.. A gap down lessons a rising bounce off 1618.. On the week rough target 150 pips from open price. That suggest a lower low next week.. if open price is below 1618 in a gap. pa may hit 1470s next week
i do have a bullish scenario which pa may go to 1750 before down. But unlikely.

i guess 1450-1470 fisrt then may bounce back to 1570-1630
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,894
  • Edited 4:41am Jul 19, 2025 4:31am | Edited 4:41am
Quoting johncen
{quote} i do have a bullish scenario which pa may go to 1750 before down. But unlikely. i guess 1450-1470 fisrt then may bounce back to 1570-1630
That is always possible. I'm using statistics of 1.5 years. On a given day when pa closes above 1618. It would run back to 1654.. That may just be 1647. A short there on a day produces 51 pips. I have the week and day as bearish. But it may rise from 1618 area to 1650s area.
The week is different. It may Gap down. If it does. It may not reach 1654.. A rise may be limited to 15-30 pips above the gap open. Wherever the open is on the week, it may take 150 pips. It could be more. Gap down odds are about 45%. My preference is to open a little above 1618. then rise to 1654.. Because the week 150+ pips is based on the open. A rise like the day can do is about 35 pips... I may catch 35 up, and later 35+150 down for the week. 1654 can attract, and it can repeal. To a lesser degree so can 1618. Friday you saw both working. Timing wise I need to line them up. If i get lucky I have past performance on my side. The 150 pip drop is about a 70% shot off the open price. It allows a 15-30 pip rise.. That's very close to 1654.. 1647 is in that range. 1654 is a little out of it. You can see i would need 1655 to hold.. A few pips above is ok.. But based on it and the week 15-30.. past moves dont show 1655 breaking. A gap up, or + 1624 open could open some up.. But it still has to beat 1654... That may not be easy
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  • #123,895
  • Jul 19, 2025 4:47am Jul 19, 2025 4:47am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} That is always possible. I'm using statistics of 1.5 years. On a given day when pa closes above 1618. It would run back to 1654.. That may just be 1647. A short there on a day produces 51 pips. I have the week and day as bearish. But it may rise from 1618 area to 1650s area. The week is different. It may Gap down. If it does. It may not reach 1654.. A rise may be limited to 15-30 pips above the gap open. Wherever the open is on the week, it may take 150 pips. It could be more. Gap down odds are about 45%. My preference is to open a little...
A gap down open has about 45% odds. That leaves 55& odds it would be a flat open. A flat open lines up with 1655/47.
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  • #123,896
  • Jul 19, 2025 5:04am Jul 19, 2025 5:04am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} A gap down open has about 45% odds. That leaves 55& odds it would be a flat open. A flat open lines up with 1655/47.
Next week the 1.144x/80s look available
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  • #123,897
  • Jul 19, 2025 5:18am Jul 19, 2025 5:18am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Next week the 1.144x/80s look available {image}
love this plan! And if we play out a h&s after reaching 1450 it opens up more rooms down
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,898
  • Edited 6:18am Jul 19, 2025 5:43am | Edited 6:18am
Quoting johncen
{quote} love this plan! And if we play out a h&s after reaching 1450 it opens up more rooms down
The last significant fall on the week was 500 pips. The rise on the week has some nice green candles.. the last fall has some broken smaller red candles.. like its showing now on the week.. no large red ones.. the 3 rises were 700 pips +.. the one fall 500 pips.. 500 now may be 1300ish..200 of that is already be gone.. 1400/50 area has some support.. you may get your shoulder started.. These little red candles are not impressive yet..Place some large red candles if you want a turn down. Nothing so far is near the 700 pips rise segments. I'm mostly just trying to get 40/50 pips..
The last large green candle is smaller.. followed by these broken red one.. Some weakness is noted.. large green followed by small green on all 3.. then some retrace.. the first retrace shallow. the second 500 pips. This time?
The shallow one was 230 pips.. the current 270ish.. but still active. medium can be between 230 and 520ish.. it can always be more..
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  • #123,899
  • Jul 19, 2025 6:30am Jul 19, 2025 6:30am
Bears need a big red candle to close below
Just like bulls needed a green one.. Not just a wick.. Next week has a 70% shot at dipping a wick..
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  • #123,900
  • Jul 19, 2025 4:54pm Jul 19, 2025 4:54pm
Quoting gatorinla
Bears need a big red candle to close below Just like bulls needed a green one.. Not just a wick.. Next week has a 70% shot at dipping a wick.. {image}
yes that large red candle might take weeks to develop if it plays out. I was expecting a wick and maybe a week or two within this area before we see that big red candle. It might not come and go back up. There are bull targets still unreached above 1830
i dnt know what might trigger that drop that i want to see but will see what happened in the next month or 2
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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