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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #1,901
  • Aug 9, 2007 9:51am Aug 9, 2007 9:51am
Quoting bravado
.



Okay, okay, you got me

Back to trading...everything's rethinking where it wants ta go...
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,902
  • Aug 9, 2007 10:44am Aug 9, 2007 10:44am
Quoting bravado
check out the ups then the crazy drop just now.
i told you i was hardcore.

Any reason for the spike 172 pip high to low .. Simply AMAZING .. this seems to be an indication of more things to come ....
  • #1,903
  • Aug 9, 2007 11:01am Aug 9, 2007 11:01am
Quoting connect_ananth
Any reason for the spike 172 pip high to low .. Simply AMAZING .. this seems to be an indication of more things to come ....
agreed.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #1,904
  • Aug 9, 2007 11:50am Aug 9, 2007 11:50am
Heres a follow up on my analysis and what happened to poor old Bob.


The chart on the right (4hr) shows the possible bullish wedge. The one on the left shows what happened soon after. I had an entry order at 1.0598, but wasn't around to adjust the entry to a lower level after the breakout which in turn caused my 40 pip stop to be hit. Mistake, only by 16 pips. My conclusion is that this is a great pattern to look out for. Should have a good opportunity to enter sometime soon.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ucadwedgefollowup.jpg Size: 68 KB
  • #1,905
  • Aug 9, 2007 5:05pm Aug 9, 2007 5:05pm
On dailies i have this as a W2 of 1orA complete from a 61.8 retrace of W1 of 1orA. now workin on a w3 of 1orA
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #1,906
  • Edited 4:32am Aug 10, 2007 3:43am | Edited 4:32am
Back to the downtrend it seems, not in the way I'd expected, or maybe a bullish flag? LOL

Argh... not trading this.
  • #1,907
  • Aug 10, 2007 6:36pm Aug 10, 2007 6:36pm
Is this the culprit for the down slide of the USDCAD

Bank of Canada injects 1.4 bln usd to support markets UPDATE
(adds detail)

OTTAWA (Thomson Financial) - The Bank of Canada has injected just over 1.5 bln cad (1.4 bln usd) to support the financial markets, it said on its website.

At the opening of the markets this morning the central bank injected some 825 mln cad, then 690 mln usd a little later in the morning.

The Canadian central bank acted as the US Federal Reserve injected 35 bln usd into the US banking sector following steep tumbles on North American and global stock markets.

The central bank's latest moves to bolster confidence in the banking system came after it pumped 1.64 bln cad into the markets in a similar action on Thursday.

'In light of current market conditions, the Bank of Canada would like to assure financial market participants and the public that it will provide liquidity to support the stability of the Canadian financial system and the continued functioning of financial markets,' the bank said.

'These activities are part of the bank's normal operational duties relating to the stability and efficient function of Canada's financial system. The bank is closely monitoring developments, and will deal with issues as they arise,' it said.

[email protected]

afp/cmr/cmr/dca/gp
  • #1,908
  • Aug 12, 2007 11:08pm Aug 12, 2007 11:08pm
USDCAD

USDCAD bottomed at 1.0461 and further rise above 1.0698 is expected to follow in the next several days. Near term resistance is at 1.0642, a break above this level will signal the resumption of the up trend.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #1,909
  • Aug 12, 2007 11:35pm Aug 12, 2007 11:35pm
Quoting bobblong
Back to the downtrend it seems, not in the way I'd expected, or maybe a bullish flag? LOL

Argh... not trading this.
Probably the best idea for USC/CAD when it gets in one of "those" moods....(there's more than one reason it's called the loonie...). But it should sort itself out and start trending eventually (one way or another); old habits are hard to break...
  • #1,910
  • Aug 13, 2007 2:26pm Aug 13, 2007 2:26pm
BTW, I noticed the first signs of hurricane season are upon us. From now till the end of November it's a good idea to keep this site bookmarked:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

and check it occasionally during the day. Tropical storm & hurricane activity in the past has had a significant impact on USD/CAD, because of the impact these storms have on US oil production and refining. Even if there is no direct threat, oil companies need to hedge themselves against the possibility of such a threat developing once a tropical storm is identified. IIRC. the site is updated every four hours with alternating major & minor releases.
  • #1,911
  • Aug 13, 2007 4:52pm Aug 13, 2007 4:52pm
Isn't the big oil problem related to actual supply of the stuff to the refineries rather than actual refining?
You mean to say also, hurricane = CAD Down?

Thanks for the info btw.
  • #1,912
  • Aug 13, 2007 4:56pm Aug 13, 2007 4:56pm
Quoting HalifaxCB
Probably the best idea for USC/CAD when it gets in one of "those" moods....(there's more than one reason it's called the loonie...). But it should sort itself out and start trending eventually (one way or another); old habits are hard to break...
just added that to my list of favorites thanks
  • #1,913
  • Aug 13, 2007 4:58pm Aug 13, 2007 4:58pm
Quoting HalifaxCB
BTW, I noticed the first signs of hurricane season are upon us. From now till the end of November it's a good idea to keep this site bookmarked:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

and check it occasionally during the day. Tropical storm & hurricane activity in the past has had a significant impact on USD/CAD, because of the impact these storms have on US oil production and refining. Even if there is no direct threat, oil companies need to hedge themselves against the possibility of such a threat developing once a tropical storm is identified. IIRC. the site is updated every four hours with alternating major & minor releases.
I was refering to this link
  • #1,914
  • Aug 13, 2007 5:49pm Aug 13, 2007 5:49pm
Quoting bobblong
Isn't the big oil problem related to actual supply of the stuff to the refineries rather than actual refining?
You mean to say also, hurricane = CAD Down?

Thanks for the info btw.
Yes hurricanes will bolster Cad futures on supply demand issues, driving usd/cad lower probably
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #1,915
  • Aug 13, 2007 7:22pm Aug 13, 2007 7:22pm
Quoting bobblong
Isn't the big oil problem related to actual supply of the stuff to the refineries rather than actual refining?
You mean to say also, hurricane = CAD Down?
No; many of the biggest refineries are in the same area.
As for ccy. it's been mostly in USD/CAD going down (i.e. CAD strength) as it increases US purchases of oil from Canada.
  • #1,916
  • Aug 13, 2007 11:12pm Aug 13, 2007 11:12pm
USDCAD

No changed in our view, USDCAD bottomed at 1.0461 and further rise above 1.0698 is expected to follow in the next several days. Near term resistance is at 1.0642, a break above this level will signal the resumption of the up trend.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #1,917
  • Aug 14, 2007 3:57am Aug 14, 2007 3:57am
Quoting Moe
USDCAD

No changed in our view, USDCAD bottomed at 1.0461 and further rise above 1.0698 is expected to follow in the next several days. Near term resistance is at 1.0642, a break above this level will signal the resumption of the up trend.
I agree, no matter how strong the hurricane is USD/CAD should reach at 1.0924 within next few weeks and will go further up.....................
  • #1,918
  • Aug 14, 2007 6:48am Aug 14, 2007 6:48am
Quoting RWorld
I agree, no matter how strong the hurricane is USD/CAD should reach at 1.0924 within next few weeks and will go further up.....................

LMAO I wouldn't jump the gun too soon now.... the markets have been waiting for a correction for months now and the long term trend is still short. I'd say 1.07 is a more reasonable target.
  • #1,919
  • Aug 14, 2007 7:53am Aug 14, 2007 7:53am
Quoting RWorld
I agree, no matter how strong the hurricane is USD/CAD should reach at 1.0924 within next few weeks and will go further up.....................
Tropical storms/hurricanes don't have a significant impact on USD/CAD unless the threaten the Gulf coast (this one isn't even at the Leeward Islands yet, so even if it picks up steam it's 2 weeks away). As for USD/CAD itself, I'm still out, there really doesn't seem to be any direction to it currently. Something else though to keep an eye on is the political situation - CAD is very sensitive to politics & has a minority government.
  • #1,920
  • Aug 14, 2007 7:57am Aug 14, 2007 7:57am
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
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