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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #5,761
  • Aug 9, 2007 3:11pm Aug 9, 2007 3:11pm
Long @ 239.15, TP @ 240.19, SL @ 238.45

Risky but worth the shot since price channel line hit
  • #5,762
  • Aug 9, 2007 3:11pm Aug 9, 2007 3:11pm
lol...well i got my 2cents on your side...missed my sl by 4 pips now looks like its pushing up..come on i want the interest...

Quoting markam
My strategy is a retrace to 240.2-240.4, then a big drop. Now, if I can just get the $2 trillion forex market to play along with my plan.
  • #5,763
  • Aug 9, 2007 3:17pm Aug 9, 2007 3:17pm
all brokers should pay interest as oanda. by seconds...
  • #5,764
  • Aug 9, 2007 3:18pm Aug 9, 2007 3:18pm
Quoting markam
My strategy is a retrace to 240.2-240.4, then a big drop. Now, if I can just get the $2 trillion forex market to play along with my plan.
How do you get to see the retracement is 240.2-240.4?
(Like to learn from you)
I guess the fibonacci, right?
  • #5,765
  • Aug 9, 2007 3:20pm Aug 9, 2007 3:20pm
out thanks guys happy trading
  • #5,766
  • Aug 9, 2007 3:38pm Aug 9, 2007 3:38pm
Quoting trader8686
How do you get to see the retracement is 240.2-240.4?
(Like to learn from you)
I guess the fibonacci, right?
The 5sma on the 4-hour chart is ~240.4
  • #5,767
  • Aug 9, 2007 3:45pm Aug 9, 2007 3:45pm
This is at least the third time I've posted this chart in the last few weeks. Please take note of the correlation between the peaking of RSI over the 70 line and the subsequent falls which took place. (By the way, I'm not here to argue whether or not 70 delineates overboughtness on the RSI. Frankly I don't care if it's considered overbought or not. The point is that once it peaks over 70 a major fall usually occurs). I have also laid down some fibs on this chart which I hadn't done before. A retracement to the 23.6 Fib alone would take it to around 227. The 38.2 Fib would be around 212. The 50 Fib would take it all the way down to 200. Seems impossible, I know, especially with the carry trades, but this beast was trading under 200 less than 2 years ago when I first started live trading the forex. A 50% retracement impossible? The last major retracement from the 1995 to 1998 run up actually surpassed the 61.8 Fib. It took 3 years for it to run up 11,000 pips and only 2 years to run down past the 61.8 level. It's taken 7 years since September of 2000 for it to run up 13,000 pips which has so far peaked at the 251 level. I know the chart is not easily readable but I wanted you to be able to see the falls that took place since 1980. You can pull up your own chart to view some of these points in detail if you're interested.

M2B
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy monthly.jpg Size: 37 KB
  • #5,768
  • Aug 9, 2007 3:49pm Aug 9, 2007 3:49pm
Quoting markam
The 5sma on the 4-hour chart is ~240.4
Nice, but first we look at 1H + 5 SMA.
Why you look at 4H + 5 SMA?
  • #5,769
  • Aug 9, 2007 3:50pm Aug 9, 2007 3:50pm
Quoting my2buoys
This is at least the third time I've posted this chart in the last few weeks. Please take note of the correlation between the peaking of RSI over the 70 line and the subsequent falls which took place. (By the way, I'm not here to argue whether or not 70 delineates overboughtness on the RSI. Frankly I don't care if it's considered overbought or not. The point is that once it peaks over 70 a major fall usually occurs). I have also laid down some fibs on this chart which I hadn't done before. A retracement to the 23.6 Fib alone would take it to around 227. The 38.2 Fib would be around 212. The 50 Fib would take it all the way down to 200. Seems impossible, I know, especially with the carry trades, but this beast was trading under 200 less than 2 years ago when I first started live trading the forex. A 50% retacement impossible? The last major retacement from the 1995 to 1998 run up actually surpassed the 61.8 Fib. It took 3 years for it to run up 11,000 pips and only 2 years to run down past the 61.8 level. It's taken 7 years since September of 2000 for it to run up 13,000 pips which has so far peaked at the 251 level. I know the chart is not easily readable but I wanted you to be able to see the falls that took place since 1980. You can pull up your own chart to view some of these points in detail if you're interested.

M2B
Yes, I remember your post, I think last week sometime was the last time.
Interesting.......
  • #5,770
  • Aug 9, 2007 3:51pm Aug 9, 2007 3:51pm
Quoting markam
Oh great, now everybody is going to jump on my method.
Well since you mentioned it, I would like to add my picture to the concept you have invented.

LOL.

Good Trading Mate!
Attached Image
  • #5,771
  • Aug 9, 2007 3:53pm Aug 9, 2007 3:53pm
I feel nervous with this pair now since the next support level seems around 236 and with the DOW down 380 points and asia to follow suit, it could be long night of low downs or reversal. But, it is itching to fall down big time...

It is the calm before the storm or just a fake trend.... Time will tell....
  • #5,772
  • Aug 9, 2007 3:53pm Aug 9, 2007 3:53pm
Quoting my2buoys
This is at least the third time I've posted this chart in the last few weeks. Please take note of the correlation between the peaking of RSI over the 70 line and the subsequent falls which took place. (By the way, I'm not here to argue whether or not 70 delineates overboughtness on the RSI. Frankly I don't care if it's considered overbought or not. The point is that once it peaks over 70 a major fall usually occurs). I have also laid down some fibs on this chart which I hadn't done before. A retracement to the 23.6 Fib alone would take it to around 227. The 38.2 Fib would be around 212. The 50 Fib would take it all the way down to 200. Seems impossible, I know, especially with the carry trades, but this beast was trading under 200 less than 2 years ago when I first started live trading the forex. A 50% retracement impossible? The last major retracement from the 1995 to 1998 run up actually surpassed the 61.8 Fib. It took 3 years for it to run up 11,000 pips and only 2 years to run down past the 61.8 level. It's taken 7 years since September of 2000 for it to run up 13,000 pips which has so far peaked at the 251 level. I know the chart is not easily readable but I wanted you to be able to see the falls that took place since 1980. You can pull up your own chart to view some of these points in detail if you're interested.

M2B
Picture make sense, but numbers are not readable.
What is your RSI setting number on this chart?
  • #5,773
  • Aug 9, 2007 3:56pm Aug 9, 2007 3:56pm
Quoting trader8686
Picture make sense, but numbers are not readable.
What is your RSI setting number on this chart?
RSI is set at 9 but that doesn't really matter as far as the information in the post is concerned. My point is simply to look at how the pair has responded in correlation to the RSI. You can set the RSI at whatever level you want and you are going to get the same 'correlation'.

M2B
  • #5,774
  • Aug 9, 2007 3:57pm Aug 9, 2007 3:57pm
Quoting trader8686
Nice, but first we look at 1H + 5 SMA.
Why you look at 4H + 5 SMA?

Because that wasn't a big enough retracement for me. I told you this was my plan:
  • #5,775
  • Aug 9, 2007 4:00pm Aug 9, 2007 4:00pm
Quoting my2buoys
This is at least the third time I've posted this chart in the last few weeks. Please take note of the correlation between the peaking of RSI over the 70 line and the subsequent falls which took place. (By the way, I'm not here to argue whether or not 70 delineates overboughtness on the RSI. Frankly I don't care if it's considered overbought or not. The point is that once it peaks over 70 a major fall usually occurs). I have also laid down some fibs on this chart which I hadn't done before. A retracement to the 23.6 Fib alone would take it to around 227. The 38.2 Fib would be around 212. The 50 Fib would take it all the way down to 200. Seems impossible, I know, especially with the carry trades, but this beast was trading under 200 less than 2 years ago when I first started live trading the forex. A 50% retracement impossible? The last major retracement from the 1995 to 1998 run up actually surpassed the 61.8 Fib. It took 3 years for it to run up 11,000 pips and only 2 years to run down past the 61.8 level. It's taken 7 years since September of 2000 for it to run up 13,000 pips which has so far peaked at the 251 level. I know the chart is not easily readable but I wanted you to be able to see the falls that took place since 1980. You can pull up your own chart to view some of these points in detail if you're interested.

M2B

I think it is very possible you are right (but then I am Mr. Bear)
  • #5,776
  • Aug 9, 2007 4:02pm Aug 9, 2007 4:02pm
Quoting markam
Because that wasn't a big enough retracement for me. I told you this was my plan:
Good one, though.
  • #5,777
  • Aug 9, 2007 4:06pm Aug 9, 2007 4:06pm
I'm still long. any one with me?
  • #5,778
  • Aug 9, 2007 4:09pm Aug 9, 2007 4:09pm
Quoting panql
I'm still long. any one with me?
  • #5,779
  • Aug 9, 2007 4:14pm Aug 9, 2007 4:14pm
Quoting panql
I'm still long. any one with me?
still in the boat
  • #5,780
  • Aug 9, 2007 4:14pm Aug 9, 2007 4:14pm
i just closed out my longs i had and collected my swap from my 239.10 entries. The day is over for me. this is my record day of over 2100 pips on this one day! i will sleep very good tonight!
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