Trading against the majority | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Wanna know why a majority of traders lose? 123 replies

Who are you trading against? 2 replies

do big banks collect good trading systems and then move against us? 6 replies

Trading Against the Mass Strategy 8 replies

Trading against the majority

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 9, 2007 12:42am Aug 9, 2007 12:42am
I was just thinking.... if the "95% of traders fail" fact is true,

WHY NOT JUST TRADE AGAINST THE MAJORITY???

It was about 6 months ago someone posted a "scorecard" of longs vs. shorts from Oanda.

Does anyone have that thread handy?

If that data is updated in realtime on their website, isn't that the ultimate filter? I'd take that over CCI or RSI anyday.
  • #2
  • Aug 9, 2007 12:55am Aug 9, 2007 12:55am
Here ya go........

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/t...nsummary.shtml
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #3
  • Aug 9, 2007 12:59am Aug 9, 2007 12:59am
The historical ratios (up to current) I find are more informative.

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/p...os/ratios.html
  • #4
  • Aug 9, 2007 1:00am Aug 9, 2007 1:00am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=11216

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...97&postcount=1
  • #5
  • Edited 5:24am Aug 9, 2007 5:05am | Edited 5:24am
entries were never the problem you can still enter with the majority and be a winner actually I think - what the majority is doing is the trend - you just have to choose your exit carefully else you will be trading against the trend
ps: these open positions you're viewing is a mixture of quick scalps, intradays and swing trades so how do u know wich type of trade you're getting in ?
  • #6
  • Aug 9, 2007 5:42am Aug 9, 2007 5:42am
Quoting tdion
I was just thinking.... if the "95% of traders fail" fact is true,

WHY NOT JUST TRADE AGAINST THE MAJORITY???

It was about 6 months ago someone posted a "scorecard" of longs vs. shorts from Oanda.

Does anyone have that thread handy?

If that data is updated in realtime on their website, isn't that the ultimate filter? I'd take that over CCI or RSI anyday.
i think it wont work because if 95% of trader fails it's not because they do not take the correct position, it's because of MM...
  • #7
  • Aug 9, 2007 10:58am Aug 9, 2007 10:58am
Quoting tdion
I was just thinking.... if the "95% of traders fail" fact is true
tdion i wouldnt get too wrapped up in this statistic, its mearly an urban myth. everybody says it, but nobody has real statistics to back it up. and in the world of statistics, you would have to define what constitutes a "trader" and what constitutes "failure". although ive heard the 95% thing a million times, ive never actually seen somebody provide a study that proves it.
Relax and be happy.
  • #8
  • Aug 9, 2007 11:02am Aug 9, 2007 11:02am
Quoting tdion
I'd take that over CCI or RSI anyday.
me too! this is what i call "new information". CCI, RSI and all the others...they are just different shades of actual price. but things like sentiment, volume, open interest, implied volatility... this is data that tells you something new, something unrelated to price.
Relax and be happy.
  • #9
  • Aug 9, 2007 11:25am Aug 9, 2007 11:25am
Quoting tdion
I was just thinking.... if the "95% of traders fail" fact is true,

WHY NOT JUST TRADE AGAINST THE MAJORITY???

It was about 6 months ago someone posted a "scorecard" of longs vs. shorts from Oanda.

Does anyone have that thread handy?

If that data is updated in realtime on their website, isn't that the ultimate filter? I'd take that over CCI or RSI anyday.
If you trade against the majority, you trade against the trend!! which is the most STUPID thing you can do!!
  • #10
  • Aug 9, 2007 12:04pm Aug 9, 2007 12:04pm
doesn't really matter which way you trade (shorter term, long term you must trade with the trend, or majority), it's all about the exits. trade against the trend and know where to exit and you'll win. Trade with the trend and place a bad exit and you'll lose, it's a lot more complicated than you'd think. Find the worst strategy you can, always losing, take the exact opposite than the trades it generates, and you'll still likely lose
  • #11
  • Aug 9, 2007 12:27pm Aug 9, 2007 12:27pm
Quoting tdion
I was just thinking.... if the "95% of traders fail" fact is true,

WHY NOT JUST TRADE AGAINST THE MAJORITY???

It was about 6 months ago someone posted a "scorecard" of longs vs. shorts from Oanda.

Does anyone have that thread handy?

If that data is updated in realtime on their website, isn't that the ultimate filter? I'd take that over CCI or RSI anyday.

Could trading be that simple? If it is that simple why am I trying so hard?
  • #12
  • Aug 9, 2007 2:06pm Aug 9, 2007 2:06pm
It's not a new concept. FXCM has an indicator they say if it says long go short and vise versa. I think they call it SSI, sentiment something index.
  • #13
  • Aug 9, 2007 2:54pm Aug 9, 2007 2:54pm
Quoting merlin
tdion i wouldnt get too wrapped up in this statistic, its mearly an urban myth. everybody says it, but nobody has real statistics to back it up. and in the world of statistics, you would have to define what constitutes a "trader" and what constitutes "failure". although ive heard the 95% thing a million times, ive never actually seen somebody provide a study that proves it.
same thing i fell about it, but it must have some seeds somewhere
"Abandon all hope, you who enter here" La Divina Commedia, Dante Alighieri
  • #14
  • Aug 9, 2007 3:28pm Aug 9, 2007 3:28pm
Quoting Scientist
It's not a new concept. FXCM has an indicator they say if it says long go short and vise versa. I think they call it SSI, sentiment something index.

Its a contradictive indicator or something, meaning if they say "we have record longs" look out for a reversal..........meaning go short.
  • #15
  • Aug 9, 2007 4:34pm Aug 9, 2007 4:34pm
Then by my rule of thumb, I would only take long positions here because over 50% of the EURUSD positions at Oanda are shorts now.

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/p...os/ratios.html

What do you guys think?

I think its kinda crazy that over half the positions go against the long term trend.
  • #16
  • Aug 9, 2007 4:42pm Aug 9, 2007 4:42pm
This is an interesting idea. Unfortunately it gives you no trading plan

So you're long EUR/USD, with infinite stop and profit?

And if you don't have an infinite stop, I can see you losing a lot.

I would rather flip a coin with a 50 pip stop and see what happens
  • #17
  • Aug 9, 2007 5:15pm Aug 9, 2007 5:15pm
Quoting tdion
Then by my rule of thumb, I would only take long positions here because over 50% of the EURUSD positions at Oanda are shorts now.

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/p...os/ratios.html

What do you guys think?

I think its kinda crazy that over half the positions go against the long term trend.
By that rule set you would only be looking for longs anytime between the start of the data up until nowon E/U. It's too bad there isn't more data on that page - would have helped to have some more observations.

If you find the midpoint on the long/short position ratios chart, it appears the way to play it is to start looking to go long when the net positions are above the midpoint and start looking to go short when the net positions are below the midpoint. Not exactly contrarian, but it appears to be more effective at capturing the swings, at least based on the limited data sample.
  • #18
  • Aug 9, 2007 7:12pm Aug 9, 2007 7:12pm
I was considering using this as a filter for my trading system.

Quoting kharvell
This is an interesting idea. Unfortunately it gives you no trading plan

So you're long EUR/USD, with infinite stop and profit?

And if you don't have an infinite stop, I can see you losing a lot.

I would rather flip a coin with a 50 pip stop and see what happens
  • #19
  • Aug 9, 2007 11:17pm Aug 9, 2007 11:17pm
You're only getting oandas data.. people from other brokers might be long..

And like I originally said, trading is more based upon knowing where to place your exits. You can trade against the trend and make money, or trade with the trend and lose money, it's all about your exits, and to try forcing yourself to believe anything else is foolish!

Of all those people shorting, which is against the long term trend, it could easily be 50% winners, or 50% losers, or heck any random percentage (such as 68%win/32%lose) could win/lose, it depends how well their trade is set up, and where their T/P and S/l is set.
  • #20
  • Aug 10, 2007 5:33am Aug 10, 2007 5:33am
Trade against majority of traders?? nah...i rather trade with the majority of the volume
100% of traders are losers. Just that some win more than they lose!
0 traders viewing now