The PriceBob Strategy

I took two longs today and both were winners.

Day 1 LBR-OR Forward: Running Count = +2R

nice one! Guessing you went with the 2R Target after your 1month manual backtest?

I had a private message so thought I'd post this here incase it helps others.
This is how I'd trade the 5min BO every 30mins, currently looking at if any particular time has better results than any others....so far I noticed 1500 (1000) has a lot of chop.
This is the 1530 example on ES from yesterday

Hi all, I have a question to everyone here.
What would you consider a SUCCESSFUL 1 month result from trading a fixed bar strategy in terms of R?
For example, in 20 trading days would 5R be considered a GOOD month for you? Or 10R/20R/100R/1R? I'm very curious to see peoples answers so don't be shy there are no right or wrongs.
I wonder if this could be a big part of why people strategy hop...

Any result that yields a positive expectation after commissions, fees, and slippage.

Doing a -1, 0, +2 type of forward walk back test and then forward test can give an initial greenlight to further test a strategy with a live account.

But the number to focus on is expectancy. This is one account where I am trading micro gold using a fixed bar interval method and strategy. The expectancy of this system net of commissions and fees is closer to $40. The expectancy listed is profit before adjusting for costs.

This doesn't mean every trade is a winner. Currently it is running at a 75% win rate. However, it does mean that I want to take every trade the method triggers because in over a large number of trades (currently 64 trades) I will make an average profit of $40. I recently increased size from 1 micro to 2 micros. Eventually I hope to work it up to trading 1 full size gold contract. 1 full size contract = 10*micros, so the theoretical expectation of this fixed bar strategy for gold should be around $400 USD per trade per contract.

Focus on expectancy, not #R's. R's are short hand way of discussing the relationship between stop loss and take profit. Expectancy is the real number that determines the long-term viability of the system.

If you knew that simply pushing your mouse button to enter a particular trade would net you $40 or $400 for each time you push that button, even if it sometimes gives you multiple losses in a row, wouldn't you just jeep pressing that button?

The 20-trade exercise is meant to develop a trader's acceptance of expectancy (the rule of large numbers applied to a trading strategy) rather than how many R did I make on this last trade, this last day, this last week.

If you trust your edge and your method, and if you trade only the setups it gives you and if you follow the rules, if you are patient, and if you think in terms of weeks, and months, never today, or even tomorrow, then you will make a lot of money and you will live the life you have always wanted to live."

Someone commented on youtube "Freenoisy."

I did free him. I freed noisy from the distraction this thread was causing him so he could carry on the important work of becoming honest with himself as to why becoming a consistently profitable trader has thus far eluded his grasp.

This is why so many people here at FF just continue to spin their wheels trading CFD's for dimes for decades. They think themselves free when they are chained to their bad habits and emotional turmoil. They feel trapped when finally required to place some order into their lives and then into their trading.

And not only did I free noisy to get on with the process of fixing himself (if he chooses finally to work on himself), I also freed all the good people studying this thread from his constantly blaming the methods and systems he's tried and the people who shared those methods and systems rather than his own inability to develop the skills required to be a consistently profitable trasder.

As Bluesteele noted the other day, trading is a skill. It isn't a plug and play activity. Some people have realized that what we are doing here is providing the tools that will allow them finally to build the skills required to trade profitably. But far more readers reject the idea that they are the problem. The problem, for them, is the method, the system, the system sharer, or they are using the wrong money management, the wrong instrument or market, they are wearing the wrong-colored socks, or the zodiac is unfavorable that day ....

If you are struggling to become a consistently profitable trader, I promise you that the problem is not method or system. You are the problem. The good news is that you are also the solution.

Had two shorts today on S&P. I missed the first one, but caught the second one.

Today trades
DAX M15 (sell), loser
DAX H1: (sell), winner (I closed part of the profit, since I close all orders at 21.30).

Nice to see some solid trades executing daily

My interest is Solely FX
So always interested in seeing
NON FX Charts

What will be Will be
20 pip R/R

Thank you

Vidvad
What have I learnt from your thread
Well I think I always had a plan when I entered a trade
but never actually put it into the market
Now the old Dave would most likely be in a mess with this last trade
the new Dave now puts the plan into the market
and walks away
What will be will be
Thank you
Dave
pps
Trump going to fire Powell ?

ps
You just have to smile

Today trades
DAX M15 (buy),winner
DAX H1 (sell), winner

Congratulations on your progress Dave!!!.. VidVad has put together a great thread with something for everyone if they so choose.

One can't be too careful in the markets these days... Today.. and the day is not over... Is a good example with talk of firing Powell. Now its walked back.. but that can change on a whim.

So easy to get wiped out for those playing loosey-goosey with stops ... I digress lol..

All thanks to VidVad and again congrats to you Dave.

Blue
Thank you
Always look for your posts
I find you are one of the few that are not afraid to think and post, outside of the box ideas and charts
You do not post so much now days
but always give me something to think about when you do
Thanks again
Dave