Trump: On EU Tariffs, Always Open To Talks | Forex Factory

  • Trump: On EU Tariffs, Always Open To Talks

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Vancarbon
Jul 14, 2025 1:07pm
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Quoting ffghost
{quote} Another 6 months at most. Keep in mind: the VIX is lower now than when he took office. Look at these swings. 0.5% on a 30% tariff threat to Canada/EU/Mexico? Back in Feb, the Canada/Mexico tariff threats caused 3% swings. Lib day saw 6%~10% swings in single days. The markets are clearly saying "until something is locked in stone, it's business as usual". That said, there's very likely a "normal" (they happen with an average cadence) retracement of 5~10% coming before the end of the year in equities. What I would NOT expect...
That’s probably some of the best advice you’ll hear on this board , for this month.

Well , dependant upon Trump and his whims
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Vancarbon
Jul 14, 2025 1:27pm
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Quoting ffghost
{quote} 17.5% of the time, I'm right every time
Stop blowing your own trumpet .

I would say 10% at best
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ffghost
Jul 14, 2025 12:33pm
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Quoting Trader#9F88
Is this how our trades will be affected in the next four years? A lot of us are going to leave the market for him for a while
Another 6 months at most.

Keep in mind: the VIX is lower now than when he took office. Look at these swings. 0.5% on a 30% tariff threat to Canada/EU/Mexico? Back in Feb, the Canada/Mexico tariff threats caused 3% swings. Lib day saw 6%~10% swings in single days. The markets are clearly saying "until something is locked in stone, it's business as usual".

That said, there's very likely a "normal" (they happen with an average cadence) retracement of 5~10% coming before the end of the year in equities. What I would NOT expect to see is another bear market (20%+ down) before year's end.

If people don't have the liquidity to sustain a 1% daily /es move, I'm not sure what to tell ya.....trade smaller? A VIX of 16 suggests that swing is the daily expectation. As the VIX climbs into August/Sept/Oct, the range will be larger. Until that changes, if you have a short>mid term bullish bias, then buy the 1% dips and take some off the table as things retrace.

If you are worried about a big pullback, now's the time buy some protection via put verts or other such measures....low VIX means those plays are "cheap" relative to periods of higher VIX. Of course, you could just size down as well for fear of those pullbacks and then deploy capital. Not sure one way is better than any other.

Good luck trading!
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ffghost
Jul 14, 2025 1:19pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} That’s probably some of the best advice you’ll hear on this board , for this month. Well , dependant upon Trump and his whims
17.5% of the time, I'm right every time
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noza
Jul 14, 2025 10:50am
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nahhh better for EU to start focus their trade with Asian and Middle East for check and balance and insurance if got threaten by US again in future.
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Gurtnellen
Jul 14, 2025 10:44am
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Nobody takes you serious anymore! Your a lame duck before you stood up.
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Gurtnellen
Jul 14, 2025 10:58am
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Quoting Trader#1782
{quote} Lmao another TDS
i do not have the 'derangement syndrome', it's just as funny, like the Muppet Show ;-)
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Trader#1782
Jul 14, 2025 10:47am
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Quoting Gurtnellen
Nobody takes you serious anymore! Your a lame duck before you stood up.
Lmao another TDS
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Trader#9F88
Jul 14, 2025 11:10am
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Is this how our trades will be affected in the next four years? A lot of us are going to leave the market for him for a while
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Trader#1782
Jul 14, 2025 11:15am
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Quoting Gurtnellen
{quote} i do not have the 'derangement syndrome', it's just as funny, like the Muppet Show ;-)
hahaha, oh well i just like him doing these mind games like a puzzle
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