The two Monthly doji candles are a good sign for bears. Doji candles can be a sign of potential trend reversal, but they don't guarantee it.
- #82,503
- Jul 12, 2025 2:55am Jul 12, 2025 2:55am
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: couldn't give a flying duck | 7,373 Posts
- #82,507
- Jul 12, 2025 3:43am Jul 12, 2025 3:43am
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: couldn't give a flying duck | 7,373 Posts
{quote} Please sir..can I join?
- #82,508
- Jul 12, 2025 3:54am Jul 12, 2025 3:54am
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: couldn't give a flying duck | 7,373 Posts
- #82,510
- Jul 12, 2025 4:02am Jul 12, 2025 4:02am
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: couldn't give a flying duck | 7,373 Posts
- #82,511
- Jul 12, 2025 4:07am Jul 12, 2025 4:07am
- Joined Sep 2015 | Status: Trader | 2,516 Posts
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
- #82,512
- Jul 12, 2025 4:31am Jul 12, 2025 4:31am
- Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 50,194 Posts
A simple advice today: Never be trading on the side of possible new historical highs or lows. For example, trading Gold that has a historic low of $300 and historic high of $3500. The R-R ratio of selling at current market price is by far better than buying and hoping for new highs. Ofcourse, here I'm talking about medium/long term trading, not scalping or short term for some pips, but strategically positioning your trades. Same applies to all currencies, commodities, anything you trade or do business with in life. Ask or listen to any billionaire...
You can consider how to trade the DARVAS Box on your XAU charts.
Inserted Video
A simple back-test Jan 01, 2025 to July 11, 2025. Risking $500 per trade.
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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
- #82,513
- Jul 12, 2025 4:34am Jul 12, 2025 4:34am
- Joined Aug 2020 | Status: Zeroing In on Chaos | 2,011 Posts
Will is the most powerful weapon in the world.
- #82,514
- Jul 12, 2025 4:36am Jul 12, 2025 4:36am
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: couldn't give a flying duck | 7,373 Posts
- #82,515
- Jul 12, 2025 4:49am Jul 12, 2025 4:49am
- Joined Aug 2020 | Status: Zeroing In on Chaos | 2,011 Posts
Will is the most powerful weapon in the world.
- #82,516
- Jul 12, 2025 5:06am Jul 12, 2025 5:06am
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 3,916 Posts
Upcoming Gold Weekly analysis!
FA Analysis:
1- Tariff On/Off: The noise will continue this week as well. Europe will be the target this week.
Uncertainty OR Eternity pause? Market might tend towards Eternity pause which is NEGATIVE for Gold.
2- Macroeconomic data:
CPI and PPI will be relevant for July rate cut. Lower and inline inflation will be very good for July Rate cut; hence Bad for Gold. Higher inflation data will be Good.
Also, Consumer sentiment and Inflation expectations, later in the week, will be very relevant. lower Consumer sentiment and higher Inflation expectations will be good for Gold and vice-versa.
So from FA Analysis, Gold might go either direction based on data outcomes.
TA Analysis:
Weekly TF: Direction is Neutral!
For the second week, we got an irrelevant weekly close, inside the strong red candle. Price must break and close above or below that weekly red candle for a clear direction.
So from weekly perspective, nothing to trade.
Daily TF: Direction is Neutral!
Gold is consolidating within a wide range.
For swing traders, both weekly and daily TF do not provide any opportunity to trade.
Hourly TF: Direction is Buy!
Price is making HH-HL. So the least resistance is to buy at the next valid HL swing.
This said, upcoming data and tariff noise will provide the ebb and flow for the ST.
Happy green week!
FA Analysis:
1- Tariff On/Off: The noise will continue this week as well. Europe will be the target this week.
Uncertainty OR Eternity pause? Market might tend towards Eternity pause which is NEGATIVE for Gold.
2- Macroeconomic data:
CPI and PPI will be relevant for July rate cut. Lower and inline inflation will be very good for July Rate cut; hence Bad for Gold. Higher inflation data will be Good.
Also, Consumer sentiment and Inflation expectations, later in the week, will be very relevant. lower Consumer sentiment and higher Inflation expectations will be good for Gold and vice-versa.
So from FA Analysis, Gold might go either direction based on data outcomes.
TA Analysis:
Weekly TF: Direction is Neutral!
For the second week, we got an irrelevant weekly close, inside the strong red candle. Price must break and close above or below that weekly red candle for a clear direction.
So from weekly perspective, nothing to trade.
Daily TF: Direction is Neutral!
Gold is consolidating within a wide range.
For swing traders, both weekly and daily TF do not provide any opportunity to trade.
Hourly TF: Direction is Buy!
Price is making HH-HL. So the least resistance is to buy at the next valid HL swing.
This said, upcoming data and tariff noise will provide the ebb and flow for the ST.
Happy green week!
- #82,518
- Jul 12, 2025 5:50am Jul 12, 2025 5:50am
- Joined Jan 2015 | Status: Trader | 5,144 Posts
{quote} What's wrong will Buying a bullish move into new highs? It means someone is Selling and placing their stop above price which and when it gets executed, it sends price even higher at NO COST. It not Buyers that push up price, it's idiots that are selling and placing their STOPS far higher up. BUY the high, it's an uncomfortable action to take but it's the "right trade" In the words of a famous trader Paul Tudor Jones - "I will keep buying to infinity"
- #82,519
- Jul 12, 2025 6:36am Jul 12, 2025 6:36am
A simple advice today: Never be trading on the side of possible new historical highs or lows. For example, trading Gold that has a historic low of $300 and historic high of $3500. The R-R ratio of selling at current market price is by far better than buying and hoping for new highs. Ofcourse, here I'm talking about medium/long term trading, not scalping or short term for some pips, but strategically positioning your trades. Same applies to all currencies, commodities, anything you trade or do business with in life. Ask or listen to any billionaire...
Inserted Video
DYOR & risk it smart ... not my call.
- #82,520
- Jul 12, 2025 6:47am Jul 12, 2025 6:47am
- Joined Jan 2019 | Status: Trader | 2,800 Posts
A simple advice today: Never be trading on the side of possible new historical highs or lows. For example, trading Gold that has a historic low of $300 and historic high of $3500. The R-R ratio of selling at current market price is by far better than buying and hoping for new highs. Ofcourse, here I'm talking about medium/long term trading, not scalping or short term for some pips, but strategically positioning your trades. Same applies to all currencies, commodities, anything you trade or do business with in life. Ask or listen to any billionaire...
You don't control the market and NOBODY can predict new highs. So before some imagine themselves so smart to predict future moves, remember that...
What you can really control is by knowing beforehand the historic lows/highs. The kings/queens of fools are the ones who are buying physical Gold or Bitcoin imagining that they can guarantee their wealth from financial tornadoes...
Well, supposedly you go buy Gold bars at $3300, investing 100k and Gold goes back to 2000-1500, wouldn't that mean loosing half your fortune
or even worse with the dramatic movements of BTC, you buy at 100k price and it slashes down to 50k or lower.For BUYING specifically, there's the simple method of - it can't go more worse. Example, you buy a car worth $3-5k, well if you throw it.. Selling it as a metal in kgs, you won't loose much. Got the idea?!
Just as buying an electronic worth $1k for $500, under normal conditions, you can later sell it at same or better price.
Listen to the stock market billionaires, they tell you never buy or invest in shares like of Apple/Amazon/Microsoft
Wise investors NEVER do that. They go buy underrated low prices stocks or after a crash... And hold on for it to fly up again..
The worse that can happen is keep holding or sell at breakeven as they already bought it for almost NOTHING.
If you understand this way of buying, you'll not just prevent big losses but also save a lot of money by simply investing less money in highly valued products
My technical analysis leading trades depend on Daily/Weekly/Monthly Chart