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  • #1,281
  • Jul 9, 2025 4:33pm Jul 9, 2025 4:33pm
back to live trades...
yesterday I messed up my plan. I had 1 successful trade and instead of closing computer and moving on with my day, I continued trading and I'm sure you all know how that goes. complete mess. by luck and over leveraging got back to even for the day but it was a mess and I do not want to have those kind of days anymore.

reset today and went well. aside from forgetting to set an alarm for red news but managed to get out of that one unscathed.
LESSON:
I need to limit my trades to 1 success means STOP for day as my worst days are happening from 1 win then 1 loss then overtrading kicks in and I lose all rules and sense trying to claw my way back to profits.

points and pips to all!

my advice to Noisy....to get something you've never had before you must DO something you've never done..... one to think on.

todays trades and some comments/notes
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  • #1,282
  • Jul 9, 2025 4:55pm Jul 9, 2025 4:55pm
Quoting maplefx
by luck and over leveraging got back to even for the day but it was a mess and I do not want to have those kind of days anymore.
Getting back to even by luck and overleveraging is death, because it usually ends in blowing out the account. Hard habit to break, I know. Over-leveraging when down was my worst trading vice and I focus my awareness on being on guard against the temptation still to this day. It's like alcohol and alcoholism: You are never really free from the threat of addiction, as I understand it. You must be vigilant and learn to be aware of the triggers that lead to the harmful behavior.

Quoting maplefx
LESSON: I need to limit my trades to 1 success
The best solution, imo, is to draw up your plan to allow 1 trade per day or per session. If that first trade wins, loses, draws, or even fails to trigger that is it for the day.

20 days = 20 trades.

I'm going to do something like this with either Gold or NQ in a prop eval and see how it goes. It does mean it will likely take more than a month to pass so the sub fee will be charged twice, but recently Trade Day has made two important changes: You can now have up to 6 eval accounts at once, and there is NO activation fee for the funded account when you pass the eval.

One trade per day. Or zero.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,283
  • Jul 9, 2025 5:07pm Jul 9, 2025 5:07pm
Quoting vidvad
{quote} Every week I get one or more private messages telling me this: {image} That was from yesterday. EDIT: That was actually sent to me today lol Mebob isn't the problem. "I am the problem. I am the solution."
I'm out for a walk...listening to a YouTube video ..about trading of course lol... Guys doing ORB trades..some interesting stats he's talking about.. will actually look at video when I'm home perhaps post it up if fitting ..ok back to my walk and YouTube

Cheers

Oh and I love that quote !!!
I am the problem. I am the solution....

Powerful stuff VidVad
Markets are Mirrors,,Mastery of craft is mastery of self
  • #1,284
  • Edited 6:24pm Jul 9, 2025 6:00pm | Edited 6:24pm
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Yes. I’ve tried many different ORB approaches in the past (mainly focused on GBP/USD and the „London Breakout Strategy“ as compared to now indices) but couldn’t make it work for me. Ranging days which seem to be far more common always got me whipsawed and questioning this whole concept of trading market opening breakouts. Therefor I tried to limit my daily orders to a maximum of two entries (1 try long/short) before ending up with even a bigger loss and getting whipsawed to death. However then i found out most days would still end up in...
Outside of the serious issues and problems that you are experiencing with your psyche after 15 years of trying to be successful, you are trading scared.

95% of people in this thread and on FF are trading scared for various reasons. Trading scared = eventually becoming a loser at this trading game.
  • #1,285
  • Jul 10, 2025 3:15am Jul 10, 2025 3:15am
Got the worst fill on JPN, Gold and Dax both winners though.
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  • #1,286
  • Edited 4:19am Jul 10, 2025 3:47am | Edited 4:19am
Quoting MarcoSx
{quote} The simplest explanation possible. Thick market (ex. us/eu bonds, sp500, stoxx50) is like your adult father, wise, takes time to decide what to do, when he decides then his goals are more stable and decisive. Thin market (ex. DAX, NQ, Crude) is like your hipster neighbor on crack during the friday evening, experiencing euphoria and depression at the same, making unresponsive decisions from time to time, but when the party is going, he is having fun. Futures are the place where A, B, C players meet under certain rules and with various purposes,...
Thanks for the explanation. If I understand correctly, what you mean is that indices like the S&P 500 or Stoxx 50 are more established and therefore potentially more stable markets with fewer irrational, high price fluctuations?

"The S&P 500 index, as it is known today, was launched in 1957 by Standard & Poor's. It replaced an earlier 90-stock index and was made possible by advancements in electronic calculation methods."


"The STOXX Europe 50 index was introduced on February 26, 1998, under the name Dow Jones STOXX 50. It was later renamed to STOXX Europe 50 in 2010 to reflect the new ownership structure of STOXX Ltd.. The index was designed to represent blue-chip companies in Europe."


"The DAX index was first published on July 1, 1988. It has tracked the performance of the German stock market for over 35 years. Initially, it tracked the 30 largest companies listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, and was later expanded to 40 constituents in 2021."


The S&P 500 is actually the oldest of the three indices. But the DAX isn't far behind, and the Stoxx 50 is the youngest. Based on this, I can't quite understand why DAX is supposed to be a "hipster", but okay.

Regarding the advantages of futures in terms of more transparent pricing, I agree with you. They may be the more "professional" products, but they also have their disadvantages. Is there, for example, negative balance protection? Leverage is also very common there. CFDs. I've only had good experiences so far, and it probably depends on the broker you're dealing with. Here in Europe, I'd say they're far more widely and frequently traded than futures. At least among the retail traders I see who don't have millions in equity.

"ex. spreads, unexpected wicks" - That probably depends. As I said, a few days ago I compared the DAX and S&P 500 futures charts with the charts provided by my CFD broker, and I see almost identical price action with similar wicks, etc. The spread at my broker for the DAX is on average 1 point without commission. And the spread for the S&P 500 is about 0.2 points without commission.

Here's a chart showing NinjaTrader (Futures) Chart for DAX and one for my MT5 Broker (CFD)

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I see the same wicks etc. I think that as long as I don't have a proven profitable trading plan, it shouldn't really matter whether I trade futures or CFDs. Maybe it makes sense to switch then, yes.

What would be the most suitable product for trading an ORB strategy where you DON'T have sudden, high wicks and brutal volatility like the DAX seems to be the case? As I said, I watched GBP/USD for years, and before that EUR/USD, but since they don't have fixed opening hours in the traditional sense except for the opening of the main forex sessions (London/New York), where higher volatility/volume can also be expected, idk. Otherwise, especially with GBP/USD, I've seen the same crappy price action day in and day out, with some large wicks and prices moving all over the place (few clear "trends"), M5, M15 candles that change color/direction after every bar, etc. It seems to be similar everywhere.
  • #1,287
  • Jul 10, 2025 4:41am Jul 10, 2025 4:41am
Quoting Rmg
Without context no strategy can yield positive exp. I am another losing trader for different reasons. Good luck.
Hehe. Thanks for your input. I add a +1 on the table column of traders telling me that you need „context“.

Support/Resistance. To me that’s a 50/50. Vidvad seems to have a similar opinion. Sometimes S/R holds true, sometimes not. I don’t want to mark my charts with tons of discretionary horizontal S/R lines (especially not on a M1 chart) only to find out my trade/risk management still sucks and a 50% win rate won’t compensate for that.

Anyhow. I appreciate your comment. Losing traders helping losing traders (the blind leading the blind). You have to love the internet

Edit. With marking the high/low of a reference bar you already added 2 horizontal S/R lines… That should be enough!
  • #1,288
  • Jul 10, 2025 4:46am Jul 10, 2025 4:46am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Hehe. Thanks for your input. I add a +1 on the table column of traders telling me that you need „context“. Support/Resistance. To me that’s a 50/50. Vidvad seems to have a similar option. Sometimes S/R holds true, sometimes not. I don’t want to mark my charts with tons of discretionary horizontal S/R lines (especially not on a M1 chart) only to find out my trade/risk management still sucks and a 50% win rate won’t compensate for that. Anyhow. I appreciate your comment. Losing traders helping losing traders (the blind leading the blind)....
Blind but some are few steps ahead. could save you 10 yrs of circus..
on a postive roll...
  • #1,289
  • Jul 10, 2025 4:59am Jul 10, 2025 4:59am
DAX +1R. Full report soon. I seem to be profitable so far with my 1:1 RR execution on MeBoB DAX & S&P but only 6 days passed.
  • #1,290
  • Edited 5:22am Jul 10, 2025 4:59am | Edited 5:22am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Thanks for the explanation. If I understand correctly, what you mean is that indices like the S&P 500 or Stoxx 50 are more established and therefore potentially more stable markets with fewer irrational, high price fluctuations? "The S&P 500 index, as it is known today, was launched in 1957 by Standard & Poor's. It replaced an earlier 90-stock index and was made possible by advancements in electronic calculation methods." "The STOXX Europe 50 index was introduced on February 26, 1998, under the name Dow Jones STOXX 50. It was later renamed...
I'm not trying to convince you in any way, I gave you suggestions that are going to help you. The simplest explanation was a description of the characters of the movements that these indexes have.

I won't go much off-topic, but you should do your own research. "Thin" and "thick" descriptions are not related to the date of establishment, but to the passive liquidity and how people operate in the market. Thick markets maintain its price quotes in a more stable way and do less erratic movements. CFDs are another negative variable on the top of that.

Another factor is how easily and precisely you are able to get in and out of your trades at the prices that you want. Slippage around "breakout" areas, news driven actions, and also when stops are triggered, can make or break your system. For example, the difference between DAX and ES is huge.

Back to the "fixed bar method", on DAX is much higher probability that a wick will stop you out, that you enter on a head fake, or that you are won't get a perfect fill at a favourable price. Why? Because of the more erratic movement it does, especially around the market open by playing the ORB. However, if you catch the proper movement, you earn more money on DAX in shorter period of time, but ask yourself, at what cost?

Since you are at the beginning, isn't it better to protect your downside? Maybe you will appreciate these things later on.
  • #1,291
  • Jul 10, 2025 5:26am Jul 10, 2025 5:26am
Quoting driven18
{quote} Outside of the serious issues and problems that you are experiencing with your psyche after 15 years of trying to be successful, you are trading scared. 95% of people in this thread and on FF are trading scared for various reasons. Trading scared = eventually becoming a loser at this trading game.
Hey driven! I'm not afraid of trading itself. In my opinion and experience, I don't have any problems with FOMO or revenge trading or any other emotional decisions that could potentially arise before placing an order or when active managing an order (if necessary).

Maybe that sounds arrogant, but that's really not my problem. At the very beginning of my trading journey, this may have been a problem, but I've since gotten over it and am able to execute a predefined plan without these influences.

The question for me is more what such a plan should look like and whether it is profitable enough to achieve the goals I want to achieve. I understand that this is a business based on probabilities, and I don't care in the slightest whether I get stopped out on a single trade or miss out on potential profits with a single trade. All I care about is whether what I do ultimately leads to my desired goal or not.

What I'm afraid of:

- Wasting even more time on things that don't work, because time is the most valuable thing I have.
- Not being able to enjoy my life and continuing to struggle instead of finally earning a steady income that I can live off.
- Disappointing my family by continuing to spend time trading without achieving any results.

Those are the things that scare me. But not the execution of a trading plan or a single order per se. I've already executed $100/pip trades with my live accounts without a stop loss and then went to sleep like a baby. I don't care about any of that. I'm not afraid of losing money, if that's what you mean, but it has to lead to something somewhere, otherwise you might as well just throw your money out the window or donate it.

I'm a actually a very calm, relaxed person and don't tend to make impulsive, emotionally driven decisions. I could do a good job at a fire department emergency call center, but that's not what I want, and other reasons speak against it.
  • #1,292
  • Jul 10, 2025 5:49am Jul 10, 2025 5:49am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} Getting back to even by luck and overleveraging is death, because it usually ends in blowing out the account. Hard habit to break, I know. Over-leveraging when down was my worst trading vice and I focus my awareness on being on guard against the temptation still to this day. It's like alcohol and alcoholism: You are never really free from the threat of addiction, as I understand it. You must be vigilant and learn to be aware of the triggers that lead to the harmful behavior. {quote} The best solution, imo, is to draw up your plan to allow...
thanks Vid, glad to hear others are thinking along the same lines. much safer to be in and out of the market and be content then have 5-10 trades hanging about all day with high stress.
be interested to see how you approach passing a prop firm with regards to risk per trade etc if you care to share I'm sure many would benefit. I know some say to risk 1% and some say much less like 0.5%.....
  • #1,293
  • Jul 10, 2025 6:15am Jul 10, 2025 6:15am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} . What I'm afraid of: - Wasting even more time on things that don't work, because time is the most valuable thing I have. - Not being able to enjoy my life and continuing to struggle instead of finally earning a steady income that I can live off. - Disappointing my family by continuing to spend time trading without achieving any results. Those are the things that scare me. But not the execution of a trading plan or a single order per se. I've already executed $100/pip trades with my live accounts without a stop loss and then went...
This is it. Trading is not about placing a trade and winning or loosing. Trading is about what is going on in your head when trade is ready to be placed and then placed. If the items that you mentioned above is in your head - You are trading scared.
  • #1,294
  • Jul 10, 2025 6:29am Jul 10, 2025 6:29am
Quoting Noisy
DAX +1R. Full report soon. I seem to be profitable so far with my 1:1 RR execution on MeBoB DAX & S&P but only 6 days passed.
You need at least 20 days before you have the minimum required to assess your trading plan. Any change or tweaks you make before then undermines the exercise itself and reenforces the poor decisions and bad trading behaviors that have been keeping you in the loss column.

When you assess, if the results are not to your liking, then you may change one, and only one variable in your plan. Then test that over 20 days. Why 20? Because that is the minimum required to be able to accurately assess your new trading plan.

An aside: You are trading the DAX. If you are trading CFD's rather than futures, you should look into whether or not there is a brokerage firm available to you that offers DAX futures, at least in the future. In addition to DAX full size futures there is a micro DAX future that would be more appropriate for your current risk profile, which should be to risk as little as possible. CFD's might be the best in that regard. As a former retail forex monkey from the early cowboy days of forex trading when Americans still had access to 200:1 or more leverage at scammy and manipulative bucket shops trading on the NT$ scam platform, I am highly suspicious of CFD's and the firms that offer them. No amount of back testing can account for the manipulation of spreads to tag stop losses and trigger entry orders at prices the real world market never traded.

To repeat: You have to get through 20 days of your version of Mebob before you change even one small part of your plan. If you can't do it, then you must either try again until you can, or quit trading and look for some other way to reach your financial goals.

There is no substitute for the work that you've been avoiding for 15 years.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,295
  • Jul 10, 2025 6:34am Jul 10, 2025 6:34am
Quoting maplefx
my advice to Noisy....to get something you've never had before you must DO something you've never done
Noisy is our resident blind squirrel. Let's hope he finds that nut

If he does, and manages to crack it open, he'll find it filled with gold.

Very well said, MFX
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,296
  • Edited 8:38am Jul 10, 2025 8:24am | Edited 8:38am
Quoting MarcoSx
"Thin" and "thick" descriptions are not related to the date of establishment, but to the passive liquidity and how people operate in the market. Thick markets maintain its price quotes in a more stable way and do less erratic movements.
That's a really good post from you. Thanks. I surveyed AI (I do this every day now to learn new things).

Question: What is meant by a thin or thick S&P vs. DAX?

Short answer:

"In the context of financial markets, "thin" or "thick" describes the liquidity and trading volume of an index, like the S&P 500 or the DAX. A thin market has fewer buyers and sellers, leading to wider bid-ask spreads and potentially larger price fluctuations with the same trading volume. Conversely, a thick market has high trading volume and numerous participants, resulting in tighter bid-ask spreads and more stable prices."

Quoting MarcoSx
Another factor is how easily and precisely you are able to get in and out of your trades at the prices that you want. Slippage around "breakout" areas, news driven actions, and also when stops are triggered, can make or break your system. For example, the difference between DAX and ES is huge.
Yes, right. That happened to me many times, and it always makes me doubt how and where to set a stop loss. Especially like day traders/scalpers do, who don't have much leeway. Don't set a stop at all and pray for the lord? Getting stopped out frequently for only a few points, re-entering and trying to catch the trend/day move to compensate for all these losses? A lot of questions to me. For example, I used to try to aim for a high win rate and had an even worse negative risk/reward ratio than the one Vidvad mentioned (1:0.618). In the case of the GBP/USD ORB strategy that i tried, I had my stop at 30-50 Pips away the entry, and my profit target was 5 pips on the breakout. Sure, you might win 16 out of 20 days a month (a 80% win rate) , but the 1-2 days you get stopped out eat up everything. Not to mention if you still have slippage or some kind of sudden spike where even your stop loss isn't respected (especially with the high contract sizes that you then have/want to trade so that the few points of profit that you hope for actually result in a significant % or monetary value).

Quoting MarcoSx
Back to the "fixed bar method", on DAX is much higher probability that a wick will stop you out, that you enter on a head fake, or that you are won't get a perfect fill at a favourable price. Why? Because of the more erratic movement it does, especially around the market open by playing the ORB. However, if you catch the proper movement, you earn more money on DAX in shorter period of time, but ask yourself, at what cost? Since you are at the beginning, isn't it better to protect your downside?
Yeah right.

Quoting MarcoSx
Maybe you will appreciate these things later on.
I'm already doing that. I'll see where I can get a futures account and will probably limit my strategy to the S&P for now, leaving out the DAX. I'll still complete the 20-day sample exercise.

In the case of the FTMO prop shop, however, that doesn't seem to be working, as they don't offer futures, and I'm hoping (should I ever be consistently profitable) that they'll give me more capital to use to achieve my goal of being able to make a living from trading without taking too much risk. But yes, I'm reading and hearing a lot of negative things about them. Another small hope that's somehow fading.
  • #1,297
  • Edited 9:41am Jul 10, 2025 9:24am | Edited 9:41am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} That's a r...............fading.
Don't focus on profits now. Learning to trade starts with being able to preserve your initial capital first. For at least a month, with at least 20 trades.

Say your starting capital on August 1st is $1000. Then on 31 of August it should still be $1000. More is fine, but not important now. Important is that it's not less.
  • #1,298
  • Jul 10, 2025 10:34am Jul 10, 2025 10:34am
US session, only 1 trade, DAX, got humbled
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  • #1,299
  • Jul 10, 2025 11:02am Jul 10, 2025 11:02am
Had one trade short today for a loss. Unfortunately I missed the second trade long which would have gained me back 9 of the 13 points I lost. I will still record that in my records, because I would have taken it per my rules.

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  • #1,300
  • Jul 10, 2025 12:40pm Jul 10, 2025 12:40pm
Today trades
DAX M15 (sell), loser
DAX H1: (sell), winner
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