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  • #1,201
  • Edited 3:14pm Jul 7, 2025 3:00pm | Edited 3:14pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} Glad you happy about your progress. After spending 6 years looking for holy grail, I have found it and having great results over the last 4 years. I do not want to post additional chart(I have plenty live trading prior charts to see on FF), but today I squeezed 300 points of the Dow Futures. The holy grail is: "Simple entry(almost irrelevant when and where to enter as all outcome is random), squeeze out of ongoing trade the highest possible TP(MM), control MindFuck(Fear and Greed). Period.
I decided to have a beer and enter on retracement(just for fun)...here is 2nd trade today. Still ongoing, but moving to BE(not enough momentum).
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  • #1,202
  • Jul 7, 2025 3:18pm Jul 7, 2025 3:18pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} I decided to have a beer and enter on retracement(just for fun)...here is 2nd trade today. Still ongoing, but moving to BE(not enough momentum).
So much ego, so little self-awareness. But you are consistent. That is, your ego is consistent.

Gonna have to put you on a time out soon.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,203
  • Jul 7, 2025 3:34pm Jul 7, 2025 3:34pm
Great to see traders old and new here that are following along the fixed bar trail !

A great exercise that we can all learn from..

Big thanks to VidVad for this thread and all the contributions of all...

Cheers !
Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #1,204
  • Jul 7, 2025 3:39pm Jul 7, 2025 3:39pm
Quoting vidvad
{quote} So much ego, so little self-awareness. But you are consistent. That is, your ego is consistent. Gonna have to put you on a time out soon.
..it’s about time. As usual, I wish all well!
  • #1,205
  • Jul 7, 2025 6:31pm Jul 7, 2025 6:31pm
Quoting giga
{quote} This post by Vidvad inspired me to test indices on the M60 timeframe. I got a good result on Nasdaq, but the result on DAX was better. So since June 30, I make 2 trades every day: the opening range breakout on M15 and the M60 bar breakout (this bar opens at 9 AM and closes at 10 AM). Here is the M60 bar breakout chart. Stop loss and take profit are equal and make up 0.618 of the reference bar range. Dear Vidvad, I am very grateful to you for your efforts to guide us on the right path in trading.
This is really good what you're doing here. There are so many edges out there using fixed bar/reference bar trading plans, especially if you keep the risk reward in line with what you can reasonably expect in terms of ranges from bar to bar. The keys to the benefits from these type of trading plans is that it is very easy to define away all discretion and be left with a simple rule set.

If you follow your rules, and you accept that your edge will have a random distribution of wins and losses over time, then you very quickly can bring your ego under control because you can no more take credit for the wins than you need to feel the blame for the losses.

I call it the "roulette epiphany" because roulette was Gonzalo Garci-Pelayo's game of choice. However, for fixed bar trading, the better analogue might be the slot machine: You put your money in (your stop loss) and pull the handle (entry trigger). Once that is done, let the market (the spinning reels) land wherever they are going to land. Win or lose, you did all you could do, which is simply step up, set your stop loss and enter the trade.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,206
  • Jul 7, 2025 6:47pm Jul 7, 2025 6:47pm
Quoting vidvad
{quote} This is really good what you're doing here. There are so many edges out there using fixed bar/reference bar trading plans, especially if you keep the risk reward in line with what you can reasonably expect in terms of ranges from bar to bar. The keys to the benefits from these type of trading plans is that it is very easy to define away all discretion and be left with a simple rule set. If you follow your rules, and you accept that your edge will have a random distribution of wins and losses over time, then you very quickly can bring your...

"If you follow your rules, and you accept that your edge will have a random distribution of wins and losses over time, then you very quickly can bring your ego under control because you can no more take credit for the wins than you need to feel the blame for the losses."
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #1,207
  • Jul 8, 2025 2:56am Jul 8, 2025 2:56am
Just winners all over the place if you do the execution without the thinking. Works for me.
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  • #1,208
  • Jul 8, 2025 3:35am Jul 8, 2025 3:35am
Quoting BataviaTrade
Just winners all over the place if you do the execution without the thinking. Works for me. {image}
Way to go
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,209
  • Jul 8, 2025 4:02am Jul 8, 2025 4:02am
Quoting vidvad
The keys to the benefits from these type of trading plans is that it is very easy to define away all discretion and be left with a simple rule set.
Have you ever asked yourself whether a 100% rule-based trading plan without the influence of ANY discretion can really be profitable in the long term in a completely dynamic environment with constantly changing market conditions? I would love to believe that, but in all the years I've been searching for something like that, I haven't found ONE THING that even comes close to achieving a minimum profitable result in the way you describe (define away all discretion).

If it really is THAT simple: I buy after the candle closes outside a range and set my stop at X and my TP at X and execute, then

A.) Many people would do it that way and wouldn't have to work anymore?
B.) You could easily program (or have it programmed) an automated trading system that does this for you, thus ensuring even better that your psychology doesn't influence the execution. + You could also save yourself the time with manual click-and-point trading and do something less boring with your time and enjoy the money (e.g. go play some Golf)

I'm just saying. I really don't want to kill any dreams here, but so far I've seen ZERO evidence of such a trading plan that would achieve a consistently profitable minimum result in the long term (for years). Perhaps the human being who ultimately makes decisions based on intuition/discretion is a far more important factor than one might assume. OR there are such purely 100% systematic and rule-based systems that are profitable in the long term, but are either beyond the reach of a single small retail trader, or I simply haven't found anything like that yet (which is certainly possible).

So now you can insult and criticize me again
  • #1,210
  • Jul 8, 2025 4:16am Jul 8, 2025 4:16am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Have you ever asked yourself whether a 100% rule-based trading plan without the influence of ANY discretion can really be profitable in the long term in a completely dynamic environment with constantly changing market conditions? ...
A.) Many people would do it that way and wouldn't have to work anymore?
Maybe most people fail doing just that, "A". Why dont you give it a shot? Nothing ventured, nothin gained. Just saying.
  • #1,211
  • Jul 8, 2025 4:34am Jul 8, 2025 4:34am
Quoting BataviaTrade
{quote} Maybe most people fail doing just that, "A". Why dont you give it a shot? Nothing ventured, nothin gained. Just saying.
Excellent post. Excellent summary.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,212
  • Jul 8, 2025 4:49am Jul 8, 2025 4:49am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Have you ever asked yourself whether a 100% rule-based trading plan without the influence of ANY discretion can really be profitable in the long term in a completely dynamic environment with constantly changing market conditions? I would love to believe that, but in all the years I've been searching for something like that, I haven't found ONE THING that even comes close to achieving a minimum profitable result in the way you describe (define away all discretion). If it really is THAT simple: I buy after the candle closes outside a range...
A "perfect" system doesn't exist. Every possible system imaginable produces losses and you will have losing streaks. You have to accept that.

It doesn't matter if you use a breakout/trend following, mean reversion or fixed bar system. Each of them have an edge in specific situations and it is up to you as trader to maintain the edge according the law of large numbers. Best case scenario is that you combine multiple systems that compensate each other to have a smoother equity curve, however, the problem is that most of the times as a retail trader you will face problems such as as lack of funds, experience or technology to make it work properly.

A "fixed bar method" with rigid rules provides you a solid framework to position yourself each day in the market with a justificable logic, gain experience, save you from making absolutely stupid decisions and to prevent blowing up within few trades or days.

If you have to ask where is the benefit of this, then I think you have to start right from the beginning and accept that you have wasted time on wrong things till now.
  • #1,213
  • Jul 8, 2025 5:12am Jul 8, 2025 5:12am
DAX today +1R (1 BUY)

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  • #1,214
  • Jul 8, 2025 5:31am Jul 8, 2025 5:31am
Quoting MarcoSx
A "perfect" system doesn't exist. Every possible system imaginable produces losses and you will have losing streaks.
I also didn't mean a "perfect" system that has a 100% win rate. I'm well aware that there's a random distribution of wins and losses.

Quoting MarcoSx
A "fixed bar method" with rigid rules provides you a solid framework to position yourself each day in the market with a justificable logic, gain experience, save you from making absolutely stupid decisions and to prevent blowing up within few trades or days.
Yes agree, but the question is whether this can lead to a consistently profitable result, with all the rules being defined in advance (which markets I trade, how many orders I can enter per day/setup, how I set my risk and profit for it). If this isn't clearly defined in advance, then you don't have a 100% rule-based system. Period.

Whether such a system simply helps save your account from a quick death or causes you to die a slow death is a huge difference between whether you're able to generate a consistent minimum income (and do so over a life span).

Quoting MarcoSx
If you have to ask where is the benefit of this, then I think you have to start right from the beginning and accept that you have wasted time on wrong things till now
My goal is to be able to make a living from trading and generate a consistently profitable minimum income. I often see people here claiming to be able to do this, and then I hear that they have a lot of side incomes or are retired who don't depend on the money and are probably doing it more as a hobby or to supplement their pension. THAT is something completely different than generating an income while having other sources of income to fall back on when in doubt.

Let's say +1R per month after deducting all costs. If I were trading with a million and 1R = 1%, that would probably be halfway enough for me. But I don't want to have 10R of potential drawdown or go months without any income. Makes sense, right? The question I'm asking myself is very simple. Can a trading plan like the one presented here, based on a reference bar and a market with clearly defined entry, exit, and maximum number of orders, achieve this or not? Exactly, I don't want to spend another 10 years on something only to find out that it's not realistic to achieve it, while all my friends are earning money month after month with their real jobs, which they can live off of comfortably, and I'm spending hours upon hours trading and don't even earn minimum wage only to find my self burned out again and my eyes ruined even more…
  • #1,215
  • Jul 8, 2025 6:54am Jul 8, 2025 6:54am
Your entire post is spot on and I'd like especially to highlight these two thoughts of yours, MarcoSx:

Quoting MarcoSx
{quote} A "fixed bar method" with rigid rules provides you a solid framework to position yourself each day in the market with a justificable logic, gain experience, save you from making absolutely stupid decisions and to prevent blowing up within few trades or days.
This is so well said here. The virtue of fixed bar methods with rules limiting entry to a specific set of variables ties to that one reference bar, combined with rules for stop and take profit, will prevent the vast majority of trading errors such as FOMO, over trading, over leveraging, and revenge trading when such a plan is followed.

Quoting MarcoSx
{quote} If you have to ask where is the benefit of this, then I think you have to start right from the beginning and accept that you have wasted time on wrong things till now.
As I said yesterday, not everyone is ready for what it is we are doing here. Up until November 14th of last year, I was one of those quite happily going about the business of doing the wrong things. The difference between the old me and the new me is that I realize with stunning clarity that I was indeed doing the wrong things and focusing on the wrong things. That awareness I call my "roulette epiphany." You and a few others following along here have obviously had your own epiphanies that allow you to see with clarity the benefit of this process.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,216
  • Jul 8, 2025 7:05am Jul 8, 2025 7:05am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Have you ever asked yourself whether a 100% rule-based trading plan without the influence of ANY discretion can really be profitable in the long term in a completely dynamic environment with constantly changing market conditions? I would love to believe that, but in all the years I've been searching for something like that, I haven't found ONE THING that even comes close to achieving a minimum profitable result in the way you describe (define away all discretion). If it really is THAT simple: I buy after the candle closes outside a range...
You know all the right words and phrases that make up all the reasons I've been hearing for 20 years why no one can make a consistent profit as a trader. You obviously believe those reasons and you have a deep belief that success is not possible and failure the only inevitable destination. And because this is what you currently believe, then you are at the very least not close to being of the mindset necessary (though not sufficient) to succeed with this process. And I think you yourself know that.

So, then, may we assume that your participation here is focused solely to prove we are all wasting our time?
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,217
  • Edited 8:47am Jul 8, 2025 7:21am | Edited 8:47am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} I also didn't mean a "perfect" system that has a 100% win rate. I'm well aware that there's a random distribution of wins and losses. {quote} Yes agree, but the question is whether this can lead to a consistently profitable result, with all the rules being defined in advance (which markets I trade, how many orders I can enter per day/setup, how I set my risk and profit for it). If this isn't clearly defined in advance, then you don't have a 100% rule-based system. Period. Whether such a system simply helps save your account from a quick...
"I don't want to spend another 10 years on something only to find out that it's not realistic to achieve it, while all my friends are earning money month after month with their real jobs, which they can live off of comfortably, and I'm spending hours upon hours trading and don't even earn minimum wage only to find my self burned out again and my eyes ruined even more"

Get a job, maybe study and improve your job prospects; trading is not a substitute for hard work or an easy route to wealth; and trade part time thus saving on another bout of burn out and deteriorating eyesight or try another thread or start your own thread exploring approaches. No one can give you an approach that is foolproof to allow you to trade full time no matter how much thread hopping you do. Hate to be cruel but you do not come across as the type of person who can trade full time, ( whatever that type is).
Driven18 and others repeatedly mention discipline and psychology which seem to be your weak points. Method ( as people repeatedly point out to you is but a small part of trading.

EDIT: I see you have started a thread in June but you have the same problem; that of selective "hearing." Btfrx tried to give you good advice but you chose to stay within your zone of inactive ignorance. Do you see now why you should get a job with a paycheck every month? You, unfortunately, seem wired to fail at full time trading.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...-idea-exchange?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,218
  • Jul 8, 2025 7:23am Jul 8, 2025 7:23am
Quoting Noisy
The question I'm asking myself is very simple. Can a trading plan like the one presented here, based on a reference bar and a market with clearly defined entry, exit, and maximum number of orders, achieve this or not? Exactly, I don't want to spend another 10 years on something only to find out that it's not realistic to achieve it, while all my friends are earning money month after month with their real jobs, which they can live off of comfortably, and I'm spending hours upon hours trading and don't even earn minimum wage only to find my self burned...
My suggestion to you is that you go get yourself a good job like your friends, and pursue this as a side hobby (not even a side hustle, but as a hobby).

Here is what I discovered as part of my post-epiphany reflections: I am the problem. I am the solution.

You are still of the mindset that all you need to do is find the right system and all your problems will be solved. That is not at all true, however. Because just as for me, I am the problem and I am the solution, so too for you, you are the problem, and you are the solution. The right system for you is out there. You have likely already tried it and discarded it. That's because you have not solved and fixed your real problem yet. And that problem is you. Same as it is for each and every human being who has attempted to "make a living" from trading or roulette or blackjack or sports betting or any other game of chance. There is only one Billy Waters, though tens of millions of Americans bet weekly on all manner of sporting events. Only Billy has amassed a fortune in the hundreds of millions, possibly billions, from sports betting.

I have charts and spreadsheets from years ago where I was working on fixed bar concepts on the ES, NQ, and CL. Years ago I found the basis for what would become what will likely remain my chosen trading method for the rest of my time as a trader. But I discarded it as I did so many other systems. Not becasue the method "didn't work," but because I was the weak link between the method and the market. I was (and will always be) the problem in the path of my own personal profitability. I was, am, and will always be the solution that fixes that problem.

I said early and often in this thread that this systems thread is different from every thread you will find here at FF. It is different because the method is meant to fix the real problem that prevents consistent profitability: Ourselves.

Until you accept that you are the problem, you will continue to believe all the reasons you stated above as to why this (or any method!) won't work. If this doesn't work for you, it is because of you, not the method. And I don't mean to imply that the original Mebob method is the proper and best form to follow. We use the original Mebob method in this thread as an introduction to fixed bar trading and more importantly as aa turn-key trading plan that allows new thread followers to start to build the skills required to becomes a consistently profitable fixed bar trader. I do not trade Mebob myself. I use a fixed bar method on the NQ that I have called the Gonzalo method. It fits my lifestyle, risk tolerance, etc. Every one here will fid his or her own fixed bar trade timing window that will fit that individual's life, lifestyle, and personality.

It is work, what we are doing here.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,219
  • Jul 8, 2025 8:22am Jul 8, 2025 8:22am
Morning All,,,

Just a few quick charts and thoughts,,,

Can a fixed bar method with clearly defined rules work ? Why cant it? Many futures traders successfully use ORB trades day in and day out.
30sec 1m 3m 5m 15m being most common... Then we have the IB(Initial Balance) FIXED 1hr H/L of the Open... Its been used successfuly
for decades.

They all work.. As Vidvad states...They are not the deciding factor,,,,you are. They all work...

How can that be when most Breakouts fail? Well follow the trail...to risk management. Without getting into the psych side of things.
That is where the tweaks under the hood need to be made all according to your risk tolerance..which we all have to figure out..

So yes Fixed bar methods flat out work. It's just a matter of being a good risk manager...and that goes with any method.

Here's a few charts from yesterday...5min ORBs 3 different markets...For me its about exploiting these breakouts that cover my losers
and build on the smaller wins...after all most BO's fail

Cheers
Blue

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #1,220
  • Jul 8, 2025 8:52am Jul 8, 2025 8:52am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} ...Can a trading plan like the one presented here, based on a reference bar and a market with clearly defined entry, exit, and maximum number of orders, achieve this or not? …
You can make it achieve. Not the trading plan in itself. Also, do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose all. Because most traders blow up an account or two before they see the light.

Just my 4 cents. (doubled it up since today its been a good day lol).

BT
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