EURUSD London Session Manipulation (AMD)

My Forex Strategy — Backtested & Forward-Tested on 1100+ Trading Days (Since Jan 2021)

I want to share a simple yet effective intraday Forex strategy I've developed and tested extensively on EUR/USD. The strategy is built around the concept of Accumulation – Manipulation – Distribution, focusing on price behavior during the London Session (8AM – 1PM CET).

Strategy Concept
The core idea is to capture false moves (manipulation) during the London session, typically following the sweep of Asia session highs or lows. After this liquidity grab, I'm looking for a reversal and continuation in the opposite direction.
No daily directional bias is needed. I'm targeting short, high-probability moves (20–54 pips). Some days these align with larger trends; other days they’re just clean London pullbacks before NY price action resumes or reverses.

Key Levels I Monitor

1. Asia Session High & Low — absolute priority (manipulation of one is a must for an entry)
2. NWOGs
3. POIs on H1, H4, D, W, and Monthly
4. Previous day/week high or low
5. HTF liquidity sweeps (optional confluence)

Entry Criteria
Once either the Asia High or Low is swept during my trading window (8AM–1PM CET), I look for the first Buy or Sell signal to appear on the older version of Market Cipher B on the M15 chart.

1. If Asia High is swept, I wait for a Sell Signal to close on M15 → I enter short.
2. If Asia Low is swept, I wait for a Buy Signal → I enter long.

Link to Market Cipher B version I use: https://www.tradingview.com/script/K...-Buy-and-sell/

Risk Management Rules

1. Stop Loss must cover the manipulation move (current session high/low depending on direction).
   1. Max SL: 27 pips
   2. Min SL: 10 pips (If the swing is closer than that, SL is extended to 10 pips to allow some breathing room.)

   
   

2. If SL > 27 pips, I place a limit order and wait for execution before 1PM CET. If not triggered, the order is canceled.
3. Take Profit: 2R
4. Targeted move: 20–55 pips.

I prefer taking consistent smaller wins rather than chasing large R-multiples. This “small spoon approach” provides clean, repeatable opportunities without overexposure.

Strategy Rules Summary

1. Asia High or Low is manipulated during London Session (8AM–1PM CET)
2. Enter on the first Market Cipher Buy/Sell Signal printed on M15
3. SL: Swing protection (10–27 pips)
4. TP: 2R
5. BE: SL is moved to entry (BE) when trade goes to 1.5R in profit
6. No entries if manipulation does not occur or SL exceeds 27 pips (If SL > 27 pips, I place a limit order and wait for execution before 1PM CET. If not triggered, the order is canceled)

Additional Rules & Filters

1. Friday cutoff: Close all open trades at 10PM CET to avoid weekend exposure.
2. No trades during major events: Especially NFP and US inflation data (all active trades are closed 2 minutes before the news release).
3. Divergence at manipulation swing: Optional confluence, not a requirement.
4. Avoid signals printed on strong opposite candles (e.g., a bullish candle showing a sell signal).
5. If SL is hit and a second manipulation occurs with a new signal (and divergence if available), I’m open to taking a second entry—but max two trades per day. I HAVE REMOVED LAST TWO RULES FROM THE STRATEGY! ONLY 1 ENTRY PER DAY ON 1ST BUY/SELL SIGNAL REGARDLESS OF HOW THE CANDLE WITH SIGNAL CLOSES (BULLISH / BEARISH) - THIS WILL ELIMINATE ANY DISCRETIONARY EXECUTIONS!

EUR/USD Backtest Results (Jan 2021 – July 2025) - UPDATED AUGUST 6TH 2025
Total: 1120 trades over 55 months
Average trades/month: 20

2R TP:

1. Wins: 418
2. Win Rate: 37%
3. Total Gain: 213.1 R
4. Avg Monthly Gain: 3.9R

Execution Flow

1. Manipulation detected
2. Entry on first Market Cipher signal (after M15 candle close)
3. SL and TP set immediately
4. Alarm on SL and TP
5. Close charts and walk away – job is done
6. Trade is allowed to play out without interference

This mechanical approach removes discretion and emotion from the process. After hundreds of trades, I know that individual outcomes don’t matter—it’s about the edge playing out over time.

Current Projects

1. Finalizing EUR/USD full dataset (incl. stats like day-of-week performance, time of entry, drawdowns, win/loss streaks) DONE
2. Automating the strategy by creating an MT5 trading bot FOR THE TIME BEING I WANT TO CONTINUE TRADING MANUALLY
3. Backtesting GBP/CHF or other pairs

Trade Examples & Final Thoughts
Below are a few examples of both winning and losing trades from June 2025.

Final Thoughts
Starting today, I’ll be using this thread as a daily trading journal. I’ll post trade recaps and screenshots, not only to share insights about my strategy but also to keep myself accountable and focused.
While the system is simple and mechanical by design, I’m fully aware that discipline remains my biggest challenge—especially the tendency to close winning trades too early out of fear of losing floating profits. That behavior undermines the strategy’s edge and can significantly distort long-term performance.

Capital & Risk Plan
I've started with around $250 in my broker's account at the beginning of June 2025 and a plan to risk 10% per trade while strictly following my strategy rules. To accelerate growth during these early stages, in fall of 2025 I’ll make a deposit big enough to make my balance sit at around $2.500 and will additionally deposit $500 monthly into the account until the balance sits at healthy $16k.

Milestones
Here’s the roadmap I’m aiming to follow:

1. $5,000
2. $25,000
3. $50,000
4. $100,000
5. $250,000 → Once reached, I’ll stop compounding and begin withdrawing profits, using them to fund real-life goals. At that point, I’ll also reduce my risk per trade to 5% to preserve capital.

Based on my strategy’s performance, I believe this final milestone is realistically achievable within 16-19 months 24 months (UPDATED 06.08.2025 AFTER REMOVING ALL DISCRETIONARY EXECUTIONS)


Feel free to ask any questions! I’ll keep updating this journal with backtest data, forward test results, and additional insights as I continue refining the system

1st trade of July 2025

9AM (CET) manipulation of Asia Low, 9:15 M15 candle close confirmed the entry signal

2R hit

Proper plan and research, stick to it!
I hope you’ll make it!
Im subscribing

@warsawtrader when does your Asian range start and end ?

2-8AM CET (1-7AM GMT)

2 losses today — both fully aligned with the plan.

Ideally, I would have preferred to enter long after yesterday’s low was swept, especially since it also aligned with the open of the daily FVG and tapped into the H4 FVG just below it—a textbook case of HTF liquidity sitting above a HTF POI.

However, both entry signals were printed according to the rules, so I followed the system and took the trades.

After the first loss, price didn’t continue pushing lower. Instead, it swept the 9AM GMT low and formed a strong bullish engulfing M15 candle. Although my buy signal had printed on the previous candle, I waited for that bullish close to confirm momentum before entering another long - all in line with my system.
Turned out to be a fake move—classic buyer trap.

Once price swept the previously mentioned liquidity and mitigated the H4 FVG located around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the current A-B leg, we saw a strong bullish reaction.

No regrets, I followed my strategy to the tee so a clear win! It's in the journal, and I’m on to the next one.

No trade today.

London session didn’t sweep the Asia High—instead, it formed equal highs, which made any short setups low probability. I avoid shorting into equal highs, as they tend to act as a magnet for smart money—a clear target, not a reversal point.

On top of that, today is NFP and Employment Rate release day, so any trade taken in the afternoon would need to be closed before the news. Not worth it.
So today was purely an observation day.

The red-folder news event later caused an aggressive drop into an unmitigated H4 FVG sitting at the extreme of the current H4 A-B leg with yesterday's low as inducement — technically a great long setup targeting this week’s high or atleast those freshly created equals highs.

In the past, I might’ve taken that.
But not anymore—I'm committed to strictly following my system, even if that means sitting out.
Because it’s not about catching one perfect trade— it’s about sticking to the plan over 100 / 500 / 1000 trades.

That’s where the edge plays out.

No trade on Friday.

London session didn’t sweep either the Asia High or Asia Low, so no valid setup according to the plan.

Discipline over action. On to next week.

No update yesterday—was juggling my 9–5, renovating the bedroom in my apartment, and keeping up with trading.

There was a EURUSD long setup around 10AM GMT, but I didn’t take it.
My reasoning at the time: price stopped just short of last Thursday’s New York Low. If that low failed to create a new high, it’s likely weak and prone to being swept.

Additionally, Asia had manipulated the Previous Day’s High, followed by a drop—hinting that we might be headed lower.
All in all, it made the long feel low probability.

That said, I should have taken the trade—simply because it met all the criteria for an entry within my trading window. It would have been a loss, yes, but it would’ve been a valid trade under my system, which is built to remove discretion and personal bias.

That was a clear mistake on my part.

The second reason I skipped the EURUSD long was that I was already in a GBPCHF long, and I didn’t want to increase my overall risk exposure.
Even though GBPCHF isn’t fully backtested yet, I’ve gathered enough data to trade it with confidence. It’s based on the same core premise as EURUSD:

1. Same trade window
2. Same entry signal
3. Same logic

Quick breakdown of the GBPCHF trade:

1. Asia Low + Friday Low were manipulated during Frankfurt Open
2. This occurred at the 0.618 fib retracement of the current bullish A-B leg
3. Bullish divergence with Friday’s low added confluence
4. Exited at 1.5R, though the trade hit 2R about 15 minutes later.

What are POIs?
Is that Point Of Interest?
You are aiming for a rule based system without discretions.
If so, how do you define these POIs?

"Market Cipher B" is a tradingview indicator

Thanks

Yes, when I mention Points of Interest (POIs), I’m referring to SMC/ICT concepts—specifically Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), Breaker Blocks, and Order Blocks (OBs). My main focus is on FVGs and OBs, combined with liquidity zones, especially on higher timeframes—those tend to carry more weight.

I also keep an eye on Premium/Discount zones and Fibonacci levels, primarily to assess whether, for example, a London manipulation is occurring in a favorable location. These serve as additional confluence factors but are not required for me to take a trade.

My strategy is fully rule-based. The data shows that in nearly 99% of cases, the entry is triggered on the first signal printed by the indicator after either the Asia Low or High is manipulated. While the win rate hovers around 50%, the positive risk-to-reward more than makes up for it, keeping the system consistently profitable.
That being said, I still do not follow my strategy 100% due to poor psychology. This is the aspect I work on the most these days - making sure I stay disciplined, enter when the signal is printed and hold winners to full TP, either 1.5R or 2R.

After 30 months of combined backtesting and forward testing, so far the strategy has yielded between 212 and 241R total profit depending on whether I exit at 1.5R or 2R. That works out to roughly 7–8R per month, and I’m more than happy with that level of performance.

Also, yes—Market Cipher B is a TradingView indicator. I do all my charting on TradingView and use MT5 strictly for trade execution.

Thanks for answering.
I suggest to attach on first post the link to your old version of "Market Cipher B" in case there are different versions circulating on tradingview.

BTW, do you really need an indicator for your entries?
For example, you are at discount area and asia low is taken → this makes you ready for buy on M15 close confirming it.
Isn't it?

Good point, Merka. There are several versions of Market Cipher, and I’ll share the specific version I use.

To answer your question—yes, I do rely on it. Often, when the Asia High or Low is manipulated, price will continue moving in that same direction for a while before reversing. If I were to enter just based on a M15 candle close in the opposite direction to confirm the reversal, I’d frequently get stopped out. It’s like showing up too early to the party.

Take a look at the trade screenshot I’ve attached—it's a clear example of how the indicator provided the ideal entry even though the signal came some time after the Asia manipulation. (Just ignore the bottom indicator—that’s a newer version I was testing, but my results show the older version performs better.)
Market Cipher is a momentum-based indicator, and in my experience, it does a solid job of identifying true reversals and exhaustions—especially when you understand what to look for and when.

Also, having a rule to enter only after a signal prints adds to the mechanical nature of my system, which was exactly what I was after following years of struggling with discretionary trading.

It wasn’t until I integrated this indicator, backtested it thoroughly, and studied the data that I finally started seeing consistent, repeatable results.

Please look this trade for Long EURUSD @

Not my setup.
Does it align with yours?
Feel free to share your trade idea here if you'd like.

Understood your reasonings. Thanks
Are these green areas your asia sessions?

1.5R Win Today on EURUSD

Clear manipulation of the Asia High at the OTE zone (0.618–0.705 Fib retracement) of the current H1 A–B leg.

I closed the trade at 1.5R profit around the Asia Low, which aligned with an H1 inverted FVG and an H4 FVG. I didn’t want to risk a pullback to a higher POI within the current A–B leg stopping me out. 1.5R is solid and within my plan.

Price did eventually reach 2R about 90 minutes later and is currently speeding toward the weekly low. That could have been a sweet 4R (60+ pip) trade, but holding that long isn’t part of my playbook.

There was also a clean 2R short on GBPCHF after a textbook Asia High manipulation—price melted like ice cream on a hot summer day.
I didn’t take it, though. Still undecided on whether I should trade this pair before completing the full backtest. Need to give that some more thought.

Sharing TradingView trade recaps and MT5 proof below.

Yes sir!
My Asia Session range is from 1AM to 7AM GMT.

If you look at the trade screenshot I sent you, you’ll notice how closely it mirrors today’s EURUSD short I just posted about. That setup is my bread and butter—it plays out almost daily, and it's exactly the kind of move I look to capitalize on.

The strategy is fully mechanical with clear rules and can be coded into EA to speed up your historycal backtest otherwise +1000 trades of manual backtest can take months
Have you thought about it?

I’ve already backtested EURUSD from 2021 to the present, and right now I’m going through the data again to methodically double-check everything—just to make sure it was all done correctly.

I actually enjoy spending time backtesting other pairs like GBPCHF. It helps me get a real feel for how each pair behaves. By watching hundreds of trades play out, I feel like I start to understand the rhythm of that instrument. So when the time comes to trade it live, I know it intimately—if you know what I mean.

It’s all part of the process, and I have no interest in skipping it. Simulating the entries and reviewing how price moves just adds confidence and edge.

That said, coding my strategy into a trading bot is something I’m seriously considering. There are times I’ll miss an entry due to overthinking or because I’m tied up at work. A bot could help eliminate that human hesitation and ensure consistent execution, especially with TP at set RR multiples—helping me avoid closing trades prematurely.

I’m not too familiar with Pine Script or building bots yet, but it’s definitely something on my radar to explore further.

Thanks again for recommending it!

By the way—do you use any of the concepts I’ve mentioned in your own trading? Or is your playbook built around a completely different approach?