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  • #123,661
  • Jul 7, 2025 4:02am Jul 7, 2025 4:02am
possible tight stop long 1724, tp in that 1774 area.. Stop has to be tight..a few pips
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,662
  • Jul 7, 2025 4:08am Jul 7, 2025 4:08am
possible short when/if she is tired 1774 area..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,663
  • Jul 7, 2025 4:09am Jul 7, 2025 4:09am
Quoting gatorinla
possible short when she is tired 177a area..
yea will make sense to sell any spike, it seems like the neckline is broken now with a hour closed under 1735 level, not sure if we will bounce to 177x
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,664
  • Jul 7, 2025 4:31am Jul 7, 2025 4:31am
Quoting gatorinla
possible tight stop long 1724, tp in that 1774 area.. Stop has to be tight..a few pips
It did close below 1438. that likely takes away some chance. 1774 is about a coin flip usually. But with a tight stop its a good advantage r/r wise.. With a current uptrend adr has a shot. Pa may be back here later. the close below 1738 did decrease the bounce odds some.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,665
  • Jul 7, 2025 7:13am Jul 7, 2025 7:13am
since it did close below 1738. this may be a bear flag on a pole.
1/2 the time it would rise. back to 1774. LC is at 1778x. In this case it closed below 1738.. Closing below may have prevented the bounce. I dont know. Statistically if it was to bounce its made the low. If that be the case it would run back to 1778 in less than 3 hs. 1738 is in the way
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,666
  • Jul 7, 2025 7:14am Jul 7, 2025 7:14am
Quoting gatorinla
since it did close below 1738. this may be a bear flag on a pole. {image}
doesnt look like its going to bounce here. Bull power is limited

or if it bounce it might be limited
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,667
  • Jul 7, 2025 7:35am Jul 7, 2025 7:35am
it broke down.. my stops were triggered.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,668
  • Jul 7, 2025 7:36am Jul 7, 2025 7:36am
Quoting johncen
{quote} doesnt look like its going to bounce here. Bull power is limited or if it bounce it might be limited
yeah.. Friday didnt either. take the 1 month quarter and the 6 mth and COT.. Now the close below 1738 and this flag.. along with that.. Its getting a bearish topping view
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,669
  • Jul 7, 2025 7:40am Jul 7, 2025 7:40am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} yeah.. Friday didnt either. take the 1 month quarter and the 6 mth and COT.. Now the close below 1738 and this flag.. along with that.. Its getting a bearish topping view
At least to 1630 i guess.

1710 1700 may offer another bounce but mayb to 1738 1747 max?
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,670
  • Jul 7, 2025 7:50am Jul 7, 2025 7:50am
Quoting johncen
{quote} At least to 1630 i guess. 1710 1700 may offer another bounce but mayb to 1738 1747 max?
I really dont know. Its got 1 foot on a banana peel. But treasuries can destroy this setup. If nobody wants your bonds. The usd is in trouble. Friday that 3.5% add was nearly a 10% add to the debt. Add in the higher interest rates. Tariffs, health insurance, more inflation and likely stagflation. You could not have built a better model to destroy the u.s. middle class in a Iranian lab. I guess the plague is next.


Those charts I showed eventually lead to a 2700 pip drop. In this case the drop may be stronger. Unless treasuries are lost. Treasuries are the unknown
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,671
  • Jul 7, 2025 2:13pm Jul 7, 2025 2:13pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I really dont know. Its got 1 foot on a banana peel. But treasuries can destroy this setup. If nobody wants your bonds. The usd is in trouble. Friday that 3.5% add was nearly a 10% add to the debt. Add in the higher interest rates. Tariffs, health insurance, more inflation and likely stagflation. You could not have built a better model to destroy the u.s. middle class in a Iranian lab. I guess the plague is next. Those charts I showed eventually lead to a 2700 pip drop. In this case the drop may be stronger. Unless treasuries are lost. Treasuries...
with tariff announcement going on this pair is a bit hard to trade for now~
2700 pips wow! I can only see potential 1.1 or even 1.0950 if bear is really strong
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,672
  • Edited 2:39pm Jul 7, 2025 2:25pm | Edited 2:39pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} with tariff announcement going on this pair is a bit hard to trade for now~ 2700 pips wow! I can only see potential 1.1 or even 1.0950 if bear is really strong
in 2021 before the sub 1 drop. the higher quarter candle was positive.enough to make the high there. It was followed by that -1.0 drop eventually. The high this quarter is almost as negative as the 2021 one was positive. That to me can make a fall as strong as 2021, or even stronger. Weak bond sales are in the way. Go back and view that graded chart. It has propriety markers since the 2008 drop. Those markers indicate the eu is weak. Its hard for the eu to rise. It mostly takes the path of least resistance.. 5 is a high score. Most dont get to 5. Currently we have on close to 5. Many top/bottoms only make 3.5. That 2021 high had a 5.x score. the current is -4.9x.. That's nearly a 10 difference. That's a wide one. The weak treasury sales have hurt the usd. Most of the world governments holds u.s. treasuries/usd. At some point.. They won't have another option but to return.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,673
  • Jul 7, 2025 2:34pm Jul 7, 2025 2:34pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} in 2021 before the sub 1 drop. the higher quarter candle was positive.enough to make the high there. It was followed by that .1.0 drop eventually. The high this quarter is almost as negative as the 2021 one was positive. That to me can make a fall as strong as 2021, or even stronger. Weak bond sales are in the way. Go back and view that graded chart. It has propriety markers since the 2008 drop. Those markers indicate the eu is weak. Its hard for the eu to rise. It mostly takes the path of least resistance.. 5 is a high score. Most dont...
thank you Gator, may I know if you have the latest cot report? Keen to see if big players have picked up more sells
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,674
  • Jul 7, 2025 2:41pm Jul 7, 2025 2:41pm
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pa is below 1738.. that may become R. st 1724 can
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  • #123,675
  • Jul 7, 2025 3:16pm Jul 7, 2025 3:16pm
Quoting gatorinla
last week I think they added 7.8%.. this week. the charts are not in order.. the 8 largest traders scald back a little on shorts. {quote} {image} {image} {image}
here
some shorts were cut.. some longs added
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,676
  • Jul 7, 2025 3:44pm Jul 7, 2025 3:44pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} here some shorts were cut.. some longs added {image} {image}
thank you Gator! Ratio remain at around 1 to 3
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,677
  • Jul 8, 2025 7:48pm Jul 8, 2025 7:48pm
waiting to see if it looks weak 1747/48/57 area.. and maybe shoot for 1692 ish.. Sustained above 1757 can be bullish. i have short signal on the smaller times. I ignored them
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,678
  • Jul 8, 2025 7:58pm Jul 8, 2025 7:58pm
Quoting gatorinla
waiting to see if it looks weak 1747/48/57 area.. and maybe shoot for 1692 ish.. Sustained above 1757 can be bullish. i have short signal on the smaller times. I ignored them
am thinking something similiar here and if we break below 1682 it may bring 1630.
there should be some tariff announcement today which i don’t know where they will lead us to
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,679
  • Jul 8, 2025 8:12pm Jul 8, 2025 8:12pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} am thinking something similiar here and if we break below 1682 it may bring 1630. there should be some tariff announcement today which i don’t know where they will lead us to
Robin hood in reverse will lead to less buying across the board. Consumer spending already dropped. Corporates spending dropped. GDP estimates are 1/2 last years
I may stick to trying for 40 pips at a time.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,680
  • Jul 8, 2025 8:53pm Jul 8, 2025 8:53pm
setup for day one of the week on GBP/USD,
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