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  • #1,181
  • Jul 7, 2025 6:34am Jul 7, 2025 6:34am
Quoting bluesteele
I posted this a few weeks ago...I will defer any discussion of edge to Lance B. He's made verifiable $60 mill +++ mostly trading a 2min chart from what I understand.. Lance you have the floor I am sharing this from Lance Breitstein's Magnus Opus course. This is from the free membership area where he has a lot of great great info(videos).. I am not an affiliate just a trader who recognizes Lance's talent and performance...So no link to the Magnum Opus ....let Google do the work. There has been much chatter regarding...
Bro i need a trading pod are you in?
im an obsessive learner from lance his content is second to none in trading industry. we can collaborate for a better trading career.
  • #1,182
  • Jul 7, 2025 7:37am Jul 7, 2025 7:37am
Quoting Noisy
I'm still not sure what the entry criteria should be (waiting for a M5 bar to close outside the reference bar vs. entering when the high/low is touched). Waiting for a close might lead to fewer „false“ breakouts, but the downside is in situations like this, when the price, with momentum, breaks the range significantly. The risk of setting a stop loss at the other end of the reference bar seems too high to me compared to the potential profit. With a return of only 0.618:1 or even 1:1. {image}
Read post #1 until #20. More? Even better.

I dont care false break outs. I pull trigger when price closes outside box. After that, be greatful for anything what market gives you.

BT
  • #1,183
  • Jul 7, 2025 7:47am Jul 7, 2025 7:47am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} To be honest, you're not ready for the exercise. You need to write your trading plan out, identify and eliminate any avenues by which discretion may enter into your execution, and eliminate them before proceeding with the exercise. Uncertainty and doubt are the two main boulevards on which discretion travels on its way to induce you to commit trading errors and make bad decisions. The fact that you are at all worried about "false" breakouts further shows that you are at this time not ready to benefit from the exercise. Worry about "false"...
Yes, I follow my created trading plan without deviations. I've described it again here.

Those were just a few thoughts that came to mind. I agree with you that you shouldn't change anything spontaneously during execution, and I won't. Your last video is very informative (thanks for your time doing these), although I think that 20 trades, or even 20 days with 40 or 60 trades, are probably not enough to derive an edge (with all due respect to Mark Douglas). I don't think that's what it's about, though. It's more about disciplined execution itself and getting the psychology under control. I get it.

Forward testing, then gradually adjusting/optimizing a variable at a time, which would then have to be tested again for a certain time, is very time-consuming. You can spend a lot of time just to realize after 1-2 years that you were basically just lucky. With more intensive backtesting, this process could be accelerated considerably. It should be clear that a backtest with fixed rules doesn't offer any advantage if you then act differently in live trading, and that such a backtest is also no guarantee of continuing to achieve similar results for the rest of your life. However, this would allow more data points to be collected more quickly, which in turn would provide more meaningful evidence for an edge.

I hope not too much overthinking again hehe. Let's go, keep going!
  • #1,184
  • Jul 7, 2025 8:26am Jul 7, 2025 8:26am
I think the whole point of doing the 20 trade exercise it to train yourself to stick to a method of trading. It really surprises me how hard it is to not make any changes even for 20 trades. I am very guilty of that in the past. This ultimately may not be a profitable way of trading, but I feel if I don't stick to the plan I will never know. It might take a while to determine that but I am willing to stick to it and see what happens. I think either way I have learned a lot about myself which is valuable in itself. I have finished my first 20 trades and made one change which is what Vidvad states is allowed and now the new test has started today.
  • #1,185
  • Jul 7, 2025 9:13am Jul 7, 2025 9:13am
Hi all, huge thanks to Vid and the other contributors here for such a good thread. I've read through every post and have been taking my own trades in the background. I'm going to start sharing my results and findings incase anyone else finds it helpful and also to keep myself accountable.
I have done some manual backtesting on DAX, ES, NQ, YM and RT. Futures are preferable to Fx or CFDs as I have now educated myself and realised the latter are bucket shops. I live in the UK so my timezone is UTC +1 for anyone curious about my chart times. I like scalping so I have been looking at a 1min ORB trade. My favourites at this point are to trade DAX in the morning either the 7am or 8am or in the afternoon I today have started trading the YM (Dow). I started with the ES and found on the 1min you can get chopped up badly whereas in my backtest YM and Russel actually looked a lot better. Higher RR and less chop most days. I did also look at 5min which I like and also 30seconds although have to be super quick on that.

I took 2 trades today on the YM at 1430 (or 0930 NY time). Total $565 profit.

Here goes my next 20 trades. 2 down, 18 to go.
Cheers guys, really appreciate the work that's already gone on here!!!
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  • #1,186
  • Jul 7, 2025 9:52am Jul 7, 2025 9:52am
Quoting maplefx
Hi all, huge thanks to Vid and the other contributors here for such a good thread. I've read through every post and have been taking my own trades in the background. I'm going to start sharing my results and findings incase anyone else finds it helpful and also to keep myself accountable. I have done some manual backtesting on DAX, ES, NQ, YM and RT. Futures are preferable to Fx or CFDs as I have now educated myself and realised the latter are bucket shops. I live in the UK so my timezone is UTC +1 for anyone curious about my chart times. I like...
Tradovate? I have Ninja Web on my iMac. Ninja owns Tradovate. I also turned to Futures and pleased I did so. We also have a great thread here so welcome aboard.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,187
  • Jul 7, 2025 9:53am Jul 7, 2025 9:53am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Yes, I follow my created trading plan without deviations. I've described it again here. Those were just a few thoughts that came to mind. I agree with you that you shouldn't change anything spontaneously during execution, and I won't. Your last video is very informative (thanks for your time doing these), although I think that 20 trades, or even 20 days with 40 or 60 trades, are probably not enough to derive an edge (with all due respect to Mark Douglas). I don't...
Oh FFS
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,188
  • Jul 7, 2025 10:05am Jul 7, 2025 10:05am
Quoting maplefx
Hi all, huge thanks to Vid and the other contributors here for such a good thread. I've read through every post and have been taking my own trades in the background. I'm going to start sharing my results and findings incase anyone else finds it helpful and also to keep myself accountable. I have done some manual backtesting on DAX, ES, NQ, YM and RT. Futures are preferable to Fx or CFDs as I have now educated myself and realised the latter are bucket shops. I live in the UK so my timezone is UTC +1 for anyone curious about my chart times. I like...
Hi Maplefx - Dow on my Web Ninja Trader. Mebob ( UK time) Looks good ?
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,189
  • Jul 7, 2025 10:48am Jul 7, 2025 10:48am
S&P 500 - stopped out and no second chance to buy.

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  • #1,190
  • Jul 7, 2025 11:00am Jul 7, 2025 11:00am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Oh FFS
I love you too.
  • #1,191
  • Jul 7, 2025 12:41pm Jul 7, 2025 12:41pm
Two losses on S&P today. The first one was a full loss, the second one was stopped out after I moved my SL lower. This would have been a win if not.

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  • #1,192
  • Jul 7, 2025 1:12pm Jul 7, 2025 1:12pm
Quoting Belgrath
Two losses on S&P today. The first one was a full loss, the second one was stopped out after I moved my SL lower. This would have been a win if not. {image}
I wish you could forecast the 1-2 trending days per month but unfortunately you can’t.
  • #1,193
  • Jul 7, 2025 1:28pm Jul 7, 2025 1:28pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Oh FFS
He's green to our way as we were not too long ago. I'm hopeful he turns away from the dark side of the force and joins we Jedi of the fixed and flawless
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,194
  • Jul 7, 2025 1:49pm Jul 7, 2025 1:49pm
Quoting Belgrath
Two losses on S&P today. The first one was a full loss, the second one was stopped out after I moved my SL lower. This would have been a win if not. {image}
The 5 minute Mebob I use was a different story but don't change your approach for twenty trades. You are doing fine
I am keeping to 5 minute.
Dow was a cracker Mebob 5 minute also
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,195
  • Jul 7, 2025 1:57pm Jul 7, 2025 1:57pm
Interesting thread.


I'm new to this but after doing some lengthy reading and video watching I figured I'd jump in and giver-a-go.

I was hoping to go at this with a 2:1 profit/loss ratio so that a 50% win rate or 10/20 would be profitable and am hoping that MeBob can provide the probability to let this be profitable. Seems as if this may be possible so heres my input/contribution from my first experience of paper trading the e-mini SP500.

Today I was late jumping in on the first signal but it was a bit of a happy accident. I see that some of you may have got stopped out where I may have mistakenly or perhaps, tardily, made my first trade.

Though entry was inside the mebob range. So I don't believe I could call this a mebob trade. Perhaps a mebob inspired trade as it was made as consequence of the signal and in the direction the signal suggested. Captured 6 points profit. Second trade was as I realized a second mebob bar (oddly enough the same bar I just captured profit on). Again I was a little late. Though I noted the wicks on the proceeding candles were rather long and a struggle to break back into the mebob range so I entered short again (figuring there are still two mebob signals in close proximity to eachother on the chart) only to fumble my SL (still learning the software) and took a 2.5 point loss.

Third and final trade of the day was perhaps more of a result of fumbling the sl on the proceeding trade as I didn't want to be out yet - re-entered a short position and captured 6.75 points.

Overall a profitably sloppy mebob inspired paper trading day. Up $512.50 three trades into 20, and I messed everything up.

Cheers.
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  • #1,196
  • Jul 7, 2025 2:05pm Jul 7, 2025 2:05pm
Quoting vidvad
{quote} As an example, let's suppose we chose the M60 bar that opens at 9 AM and closes at 10 AM as out fixed bar (Mebob bar) on the NQ This is just one that I am currently "testing." I'd place a buy stop one tick above the high of that bar's range, and a sell stop one tick below the low of that bar's range, rather than wait for an M60 bar to close outside of the range. {image}
This post by Vidvad inspired me to test indices on the M60 timeframe. I got a good result on Nasdaq, but the result on DAX was better. So since June 30, I make 2 trades every day: the opening range breakout on M15 and the M60 bar breakout (this bar opens at 9 AM and closes at 10 AM). Here is the M60 bar breakout chart. Stop loss and take profit are equal and make up 0.618 of the reference bar range.
Dear Vidvad, I am very grateful to you for your efforts to guide us on the right path in trading. Tom Hougaard named his book " Best Loser Wins". There is no shame in being a loser, because there are only 20 steps from losing to winning)
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  • #1,197
  • Jul 7, 2025 2:06pm Jul 7, 2025 2:06pm
Quoting vidvad
{quote} He's green to our way as we were not too long ago. I'm hopeful he turns away from the dark side of the force and joins we Jedi of the fixed and flawless
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  • #1,198
  • Jul 7, 2025 2:13pm Jul 7, 2025 2:13pm
I spent all of two years, maybe almost three really working on various versions of the rocky method. Why? I was trying to find the best MA's to "filter" my trades, eliminate the losses, only take the winners as far as possible. In short, I was 100% focused on outcome based trading.

I did not realize this until I experienced of the roulette epiphany in November. While the brief video which sparked the epiphany for me has yielded many valuable ideas over the past se7 months, the passage which specifically sparked the epiphany is cued up here:

Inserted Video


"So, finally, after a lot of hard work, armed with their fine-tuned data and a year after Gonzalo's initial experience, they're in a position to play ball and win ... Gonzalo and his family believe they have a 6% advantage ... except things haven't started out well. For the first two hours the numbers they've been betting don't connect. SPin after spin, loss after loss, their already small bankroll is disappearing fast. A stressed-out Gonzalo knows he needs to be patient. And then, probability bites back, dealing the team several ... wins in a row. Despite their early losses, their first serious night of roulette is a profitable one."

And then this passage cued up from a longer form documentary about the Pelayos formed the basis for my own daily trading affirmation:

Inserted Video


My version (current iteration):

If you trust your Edge, and the fixed bar method, and if you trade only the setups it gives you, and if you follow the rules, if you're patient, and if you think in terms of weeks, and months, never today, or even tomorrow, Then you will make a lot of money and give your family the life you've always wanted for them to have.

I don't think you can simply choose to have the epiphany. I don't believe you can just say, "fair enough, let me give this 20 trade exercise a go." You have to have the eye-opening awakening that allows you to see clearly that the true path to success is through commitment to the process of trading, and that if you trust in the process, the outcomes will take care of themselves. You have to be committed to the process as a matter of insight, as a matter of belief, not based on faith and certainly not because this thread is the "flavor of the day." It has to be a commitment based seeing this process as an obvious truth, as obvious as the observation that "the sun rose yesterday, and it rose all the days before that, therefore it will rise tomorrow." To me, I can tell immediately if someone posting here knows it as truth or if one has only grudgingly accepted it as something that one can try on like stylish coat but discard for something more comfortable or stylish in the near future.

And here is the thing: Even once one has accepted the truth that trading is a process and that one must focus 100% on process over individual trade outcomes, the work is just then beginning. Everything I did before the roulette epiphany was play, pretend, make believe. Now that I am focused on process, I am doing the real work required to become a consistently profitable trader. But tit is work, and there is much left to do. The work is following the process and continuously monitoring myself to make sure I keep to my plan and avid the trading errors of FOMO trading, revenge trading, over trading and over leveraging.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,199
  • Jul 7, 2025 2:37pm Jul 7, 2025 2:37pm
Quoting vidvad
I spent all of two years, maybe almost three really working on various versions of the rocky method. Why? I was trying to find the best MA's to "filter" my trades, eliminate the losses, only take the winners as far as possible. In short, I was 100% focused on outcome based trading. I did not realize this until I experienced of the roulette epiphany in November. While the brief video which sparked the epiphany for me has yielded many valuable ideas over the past se7 months, the passage which specifically sparked the epiphany is cued up here: https://youtu.be/pNyVwgrF4eM?t=351...
Glad you happy about your progress.

After spending 6 years looking for holy grail, I have found it and having great results over the last 4 years. I do not want to post additional chart(I have plenty live trading prior charts to see on FF), but today I squeezed 300 points of the Dow Futures.

The holy grail is: "Simple entry(almost irrelevant when and where to enter as all outcome is random), squeeze out of ongoing trade the highest possible TP(MM), control MindFuck(Fear and Greed). Period.
  • #1,200
  • Jul 7, 2025 2:49pm Jul 7, 2025 2:49pm
Quoting Belgrath
It really surprises me how hard it is to not make any changes even for 20 trades.
"Spin after spin, loss after loss, his already small bankroll is disappearing fast. A stressed-out Gonzalo knows he needs to be patient. Then probability bites back!"
That right there was such an "A-Ha!" moment for me. Loss after loss, a stressed-out Gonzalo knows he needs to be patient."

The seed that sprouted into the roulette epiphany.

Quoting Belgrath
I think the whole point of doing the 20 trade exercise it to train yourself to stick to a method of trading.
Very close, however I would restate that to say "The point of the 20 trade exercise is to train you to think in terms of probabilities and approach trading as a process rather than focusing on whether the most recent trade was a profit or a loss."

Quoting Belgrath
It really surprises me how hard it is to not make any changes even for 20 trades. I am very guilty of that in the past.
Every one of us is guilty of that offense and every one of us are multiple repeat offenders. For most, that is how the entirety of their trading careers will play out, until the go broke or die trying. It is rare for us to get the opportunity we have been given as a result of the roulette epiphany.

Quoting Belgrath
This ultimately may not be a profitable way of trading, but I feel if I don't stick to the plan I will never know.
My trading profits since switching to fixed bar methods in November 2024 are now many times my total profits from the 15 years of trading previous to these 7 months. I am 100% certain that fixed bar trading is the best way for me to continue profitable equity growth.

Quoting Belgrath
I have finished my first 20 trades and made one change which is what Vidvad states is allowed and now the new test has started today.
To be clear, vidvad is 100% parroting the recommendation of Mark Douglas as found in his seminars, and his two excellent books, The Disciplined Trader and Trading in the Zone. I have no ego in this and make no claims to originality. I'm sharing here with you what has worked for me, and that is following Mark Douglas's exercise as he himself originally presented it.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
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