The Truth of Profit ? | Forex Factory

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The Truth of Profit ?

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 29, 2025 11:33am Jun 29, 2025 11:33am
Realistic vs Expected Profitability in Retail Forex – What Are You Actually Seeing?

Hi everyone,
I've been trading live accounts in the forex market for a while now and, like many of you, I started this journey with certain expectations about what’s possible in terms of profitability—monthly targets like 5%, 10%, and so on.
But over time, through real-world experience, I’ve realized that profitability is a lot more nuanced. It’s not just about hitting numbers—it’s about managing risk, surviving long enough to learn, and adjusting expectations based on reality rather than hope.
I’d really like to hear from traders who have been in the game for a while:(More from scalpers)
1-When you first started, what were your expectations around daily / Weekly / monthly or yearly returns?
2-Now that you have at least a year or more of live trading behind you, what kind of returns are you actually seeing?
3-If you’ve reached consistency, what’s your average monthly return vs drawdown?
4-In your view, do most retail traders overestimate what’s realistically achievable? Why do you think that happens?
Feel free to go beyond just the numbers—share the turning points in your journey, the psychological shifts, and what helped you get grounded in the realities of trading.
Looking forward to hearing your thoughts. I think this kind of honest discussion is exactly what many serious traders need to see more of.
Thanks in advance
Those who dare to fail miserably can achieve greatly.” ~ John F. Kennedy.
  • #2
  • Jul 6, 2025 6:40am Jul 6, 2025 6:40am
Quoting mhmdghaeni
Realistic vs Expected Profitability in Retail Forex – What Are You Actually Seeing? Hi everyone, I've been trading live accounts in the forex market for a while now and, like many of you, I started this journey with certain expectations about what’s possible in terms of profitability—monthly targets like 5%, 10%, and so on. But over time, through real-world experience, I’ve realized that profitability is a lot more nuanced. It’s not just about hitting numbers—it’s about managing risk, surviving long enough to learn, and adjusting expectations...
FX trading is generally a tough street both for beginners and the oldies.
Profit , humm little little
  • #3
  • Jul 6, 2025 7:07am Jul 6, 2025 7:07am
Quoting mhmdghaeni
Realistic vs Expected Profitability in Retail Forex – What Are You Actually Seeing? Hi everyone, I've been trading live accounts in the forex market for a while now and, like many of you, I started this journey with certain expectations about what’s possible in terms of profitability—monthly targets like 5%, 10%, and so on. But over time, through real-world experience, I’ve realized that profitability is a lot more nuanced. It’s not just about hitting numbers—it’s about managing risk, surviving long enough to learn, and adjusting expectations...


1-When you first started, what were your expectations around daily / Weekly / monthly or yearly returns?

Starting out, I think everyone falls into these traps of thinking about returns in percentages. But this is only helpful in investing. If you are a trader, you are not an investor. You need to focus on making a fixed amount of money as your target, in a way that is repeatable, consistent and scalable.

example: try to make $5.00 a day, and figure out what size account you need to do that. Reset after every day where you are net positive.

Then scale up.

most people do the reverse. They try to make their long term goal before they can consistently make a dollar a day, thinking they will achieve some 100,000% return. I did this too.

also reset each quarter/year, etc and start with the same balance. Nearly every single successful trader I have met does this. They don’t try to “compound” indefinitely like an investment account. If you are an investor disregard this, but if you are a trader, you need to approach it like a trader, not an investor.

2-Now that you have at least a year or more of live trading behind you, what kind of returns are you actually seeing?

20-25%+ on average per year (shoot for about 2% per month of the starting balance, not compounding 2% every month). Again though, I don’t think about my performance in terms of return like an investment. It works out to be this, but I just have a fixed amount I try to make daily/weekly/monthly/yearly that is an absolute $ value, not a % return.

3-If you’ve reached consistency, what’s your average monthly return vs drawdown?

anywhere gone 0.5:1 to 1:2 depending on variance and volatility and current regime of market.

4-In your view, do most retail traders overestimate what’s realistically achievable? Why do you think that happens?

most traders overestimate how they will hit their goal. People in general overestimate what can be done in 1 year and drastically underestimate what can be done in 5 years.

You can make $10,000 a day. But you will not compound your way there from a tiny account on trading profits alone. You will learn to make $5.00 a day consistently, then you will build your bank with trading profits, but also capital from other things like your day job until that daily number gets large enough to go full time. You need to practice withdrawing and spending profits.

you will almost never compound your way from a very small account, to go going full-time, all with trading profits. This is completely unrealistic. The other approach is completely realistic and how most businesses actually operate and grow. They build something that is consistent, repeatable, and scalable.

prove it in a small stake environment, then scale up.
ri · skuht
  • #4
  • Edited 7:48am Jul 6, 2025 7:26am | Edited 7:48am
Quoting Riskcuit
{quote} 1-When you first started, what were your expectations around daily / Weekly / monthly or yearly returns? Starting out, I think everyone falls into these traps of thinking about returns in percentages. But this is only helpful in investing. If you are a trader, you are not an investor. You need to focus on making a fixed amount of money as your target, in a way that is repeatable, consistent and scalable. example: try to make $5.00 a day, and figure out what size account you need to do that. Reset after every day where you are net positive....
Thank you for your atterntion and deailed answer .
very useful
Those who dare to fail miserably can achieve greatly.” ~ John F. Kennedy.
  • #5
  • Jul 6, 2025 2:23pm Jul 6, 2025 2:23pm
Quoting starpyramid7
{quote} FX trading is generally a tough street both for beginners and the oldies. Profit , humm little little
You sound more like a AI or like a Content Creator.
  • #6
  • Jul 6, 2025 3:46pm Jul 6, 2025 3:46pm
Quoting barbones
{quote} You sound more like a AI or like a Content Creator.
A.I. is the way of the future.

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #7
  • Jul 6, 2025 4:47pm Jul 6, 2025 4:47pm
Quoting mhmdghaeni
Realistic vs Expected Profitability in Retail Forex – What Are You Actually Seeing? Hi everyone, I've been trading live accounts in the forex market for a while now and, like many of you, I started this journey with certain expectations about what’s possible in terms of profitability—monthly targets like 5%, 10%, and so on. But over time, through real-world experience, I’ve realized that profitability is a lot more nuanced. It’s not just about hitting numbers—it’s about managing risk, surviving long enough to learn, and adjusting expectations...

The Truth of Profit - must be SMART.

S - specific
M - measurable
A - achievable
R - realistic
T - time-based

Starting with a trading capital of one-year of your salary and making 20% annually to supplement your fulltime job over a medium term of 36 months a SMART goal for any retail trader ?

....
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #8
  • Last Post: Jul 7, 2025 7:05am Jul 7, 2025 7:05am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} The Truth of Profit - must be SMART. S - specific M - measurable A - achievable R - realistic T - time-based Starting with a trading capital of one-year of your salary and making 20% annually to supplement your fulltime job over a medium term of 36 months a SMART goal for any retail trader ? ....
I've read about the SMART method in a book (Trade Mindfully by Gary Dayton).
For some reason, after all these years of trading — going through growth, losses, and margin calls — I can say (in my opinion) that Compound interest is more of a dream in trading.
I started this topic to clarify some thoughts and questions in my mind, such as:

  1. Every trader should develop a personal money management system that defines when and how much to withdraw. Just like a technical strategy, this system will differ from one trader to another.
  2. Psychology plays a strong and deep role in either preserving profits or amplifying losses.

So, the idea of having a fixed weekly profit target — like 5% — might not be effective or sustainable for many traders in the long run.
Because I may be a patient person, but you are not — and vice versa.

My goal is to understand whether professional traders (consistent winners) follow a specific withdrawal regime, or if it's not as necessary as I believe it is.

Those who dare to fail miserably can achieve greatly.” ~ John F. Kennedy.
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