Justin's Playground

Stupid Bruce!!

Bad thing is my DD in live account is now near $3K. On the other hand, good thing is recently I have developed a strategy mixing with several moving averages. Really, moving averages are the only indicators worth trying. So far, it gives pretty good forward test results. I hope it will become a near holy grail if you believe it would ever exist... All I need is more forward testing and faith. My prop firm accounts will tell sooner or later.....
Anyway, most urgent thing now is to find a good timing for exiting DD without much hurt....

There are tons of moving averages available to test if they work to you. I think it's worth spending time. EMA is kinda old school now but it's still the most popular. Personally I like 50 and 200 EMA.

Day closed as a pin bar... God saved...

The buffer to the trailing SL has grown to +$1K now...

It was very early to trade but I gave a shot as my strategy gave a signal... Due to the thin liquidity in early hour session, I made it quick. Look how 50 EMA worked.

One tip to Tradingview

I use free version of Tradingview. If you use Firefox, it blocks AD quietly even without using any AD blocker. When you use other browsers such as Chrome or Safari, Tradingview detects AD blockers and won't display charts until you disable them. Hope it helps.

Second trade ended up BE. Entry was bad due to FOMO. I had to wait some pull back in hindsight. Exited as storage report will be released in 30 mins and the market is choppy. I need a faith anyway. My strategy is solid.

AI generated TA

Here’s the latest outlook as of early July 2025:
Market Fundamentals
1. EIA Short-Term Forecast

1. The Energy Information Administration expects Henry Hub spot prices to average around $4.00/MMBtu in 2025, rising to $4.90 in 2026—a significant increase from ~$2.20 in 2024 (eia.gov).
2. The driver: summer cooling demand, constrained production growth, and LNG exports outpacing supply growth (eia.gov).

2. Supply & Storage Dynamics

1. Inventory injections have been stronger than average, boosting short-term supply—but projections show inventories may dip below five-year averages by October as hotter summer temperatures drive usage (eia.gov).

3. Weather’s Role & Technical Outlook

1. Hot mid‑July weather forecasts have already lifted front-month futures (~up 2% to $3.49/MMBtu for August delivery) (reuters.com).
2. Technical analysts caution that the contract needs to stay above $3.39 to avoid a bearish slide; holding above $3.59 could signal a move toward $3.74+ (kaseco.com).

4. Longer-Term Highlights

1. Investor sentiment is bullish: Reuters notes heat-driven demand and maintenance cycles supporting prices (mrt.com).
2. A MarketWatch report warns that supply and export trends could push futures above $5/MMBtu later in 2025 (marketwatch.com).

As of July 5, 2025, will NYMEX NG futures move higher?
Short-term (next few weeks):

1. Yes, likely. Near-term heat forecasts combined with seasonal demand increases and tightening inventories are supporting bullish price action. The July/August contracts could test ~$3.60–$4.00, especially if summer temperatures persist.

Medium-term (rest of summer into fall):

1. Uptrend probable. EIA and analysts expect prices to climb well above current levels—potentially $4–5/MMBtu—as consistent domestic demand and LNG exports exert upward pressure (marketwatch.com).

Summary Table
HorizonDriversOutlook
Short-termHeat-driven cooling demand, tight storageBullish ($3.50–4.00+)
Medium-termLNG exports, production constraints, inventory drawsBullish ($4–5)
Bearish risksSoft weather, oversupply surprises, warm inventory prints
Bottom Line
All signs point to upward pressure on NYMEX natural gas futures through July and beyond. Even with temporary dips on inventory builds or cooler-than-expected snaps, the overall trend is clearly lifting prices into the $4–5/MMBtu range through 2025.

1. marketwatch.com

Whenever NG price hit the bottom, it usual had made some decent rallies and then finished the rally with a sharp spike. I think it will repeat again this year. Perhaps, it would hit $3 then spike up and beyond $5.....

NG CFTC COT data

As of July 6, 2025, the most recent CFTC COT release (issued Friday, July 4, based on data through Tuesday, July 1) shows that speculative traders (a.k.a. “non-commercials”) hold a net short position of approximately –93,800 contracts in Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures (investing.com).
Additionally, the Managed Money category (which overlaps with large speculators in certain COT reporting) shows a net short position of about –60,725 contracts as of CFTC data for the week ending July 1 (2025‑W26) (en.macromicro.me).
Key Takeaways:

1. Net speculative (non-commercial) shorts: ~93.8 K contracts
2. Managed Money net shorts: ~60.7 K contracts

These figures suggest that large speculators remain significantly betting on lower natural gas prices.
Would you like the breakdown by trader group (e.g., commercials vs. non-reportables) or historical trend context?

Here’s a clearer breakdown and trend context based on the latest COT release (issued Friday, July 4, covering positions as of Tuesday, July 1, 2025):
COT Positions (Futures Only) – Henry Hub Natural Gas

1. Non‑Commercial (Large Speculators)
   Net short position: approximately –93,800 contracts, unchanged from the prior week (tradingster.com, investing.com).
2. Managed Money (from combined futures & options)
   Net short: around –60,725 contracts (week ending July 1), up slightly from –63,260 the week before (en.macromicro.me).
3. Commercial (Hedgers)
   Since non-commercials are net short ~94K and total OI includes commercials and small traders, hedgers are likely net long roughly in the +90K range—intuitively offsetting spec short positions to serve as price-risk insurers.
4. Non-reportables (Small Traders)
   While exact numbers aren’t provided, they typically hold minor net long positions that slightly balance the broader market structure.

Recent Trend Analysis
Week EndingNon-Commercial NetManaged Money Net
Jul 1–93.8 K–60.7 K
Jun 24–93.8 K–63.3 K
Jun 18–92.5 K–?
Mid-Jun–104 to –114 K–?

1. The non-commercial short has modestly eased from the –100K to –114K range seen in mid‑June.
2. Managed Money shorts have reduced slightly, moving from –60–63K to –60.7K (barchart.com, investing.com).

Interpretation

1. Bearish Sentiment: Large speculators remain strongly short, suggesting ongoing expectations of downward price pressure.
2. Hedger Longs: Commercial players continue hedging against price upside—typically producers or consumers locking in prices.
3. Moderate Short Covering: Gradual reduction in managed money shorts hints at slight positioning changes—possibly due to summer weather forecasts or supply updates.

Summary
As of July 6, 2025 (COT data through July 1):

1. Non-commercials: ~–93.8K net shorts
2. Managed Money: ~–60.7K shorts
3. Commercials: Net longs (~+90K), balancing spec shorts
4. Trend: Light short covering over recent weeks, but spec sentiment remains predominantly bearish.

Would you like a weekly chart view, or more detail on changes across categories from historical CFTC data?

https://images.openai.com/thumbnails...BwT1crBgD_bSiP
Here’s a visual breakdown of the COT positioning and price outlook for Henry Hub Natural Gas:
COT Data & Trend Insights
1. Futures-Only COT Positions (as of July 1, 2025 – data released July 4):

1. Non‑Commercials (Large Speculators) remain heavily net short at roughly ‑94 k contracts—a level that’s held steady since late June (tradingster.com, cftc.gov).
2. Commercials (Hedgers) are correspondingly net long, typically offsetting this short exposure from producers/industrial users .
3. Non-reportables (Small Traders) hold minor net long positions, playing a small part in balancing the market dynamics (barchart.com).

2. Combined Futures & Options (Managed Money):
Integrated managed money positions (futures + options) show a net short of approximately ‑61 k contracts, slightly easing off mid‑June levels (~‑63 k) (tradingster.com).
Price Correlation & Outlook

1. Spot and futures prices have shown a modest rebound in early July, with August NYMEX futures rising ~2% to $3.49/MMBtu amid rising mid‑July heat forecast and increased cooling demand (reuters.com).
2. The COT charts show that speculators remain bearish, maintaining large net shorts even as prices have pulled back from earlier June lows .
3. EIA's data underscores that storage levels remain ample following record low prices in 2024, reducing fear-driven unwinds and underpinning spec shorts (eia.gov).

Interpretation

1. Bearish Speculation: Large specs remain short, signaling ongoing expectations of softer prices—albeit somewhat moderated by recent short covering.
2. Price Support Ahead: Heat-wave forecasts and seasonal drawdowns are supporting prices near the $3.50 area.
3. Fundamental Balance: Widely available supply plus ample storage is keeping hedgers comfortable absorbing spec shorts.

Would you like a detailed historical weekly chart of net speculator positions versus prices, or a breakdown of open interest by category over time?

Are large speculators in CFTC COT data always correct?


No, large speculators in CFTC COT data are not always correct — and in fact, they often position against future price direction, especially at major turning points.
Here’s a more nuanced view:
Who are “large speculators”?
In the CFTC COT report, large speculators typically refer to:

1. Non-commercial traders: hedge funds, CTAs, proprietary trading desks
2. Their motive: profit, not physical hedging

Do their positions predict future prices?
SituationDo speculators get it right?
Trending markets Often correct (they ride momentum)
Market tops/bottoms Often wrong (overextended positions)
Sideways/consolidation Mixed (choppy signals)
Common Pattern: “Crowded Trade Reversals”
When large specs build extreme net long or net short positions, it often signals:

1. Potential exhaustion of the trend
2. Imminent reversal, especially when:
   1. Fundamentals diverge from sentiment
   2. Commercial hedgers take the opposite side

   
   

Example (Natural Gas):

1. In early 2024, large specs were extremely net short NG just before a price bottom.
2. As prices reversed, shorts were forced to cover — driving the rally.

Who’s more reliable?
Trader GroupTend to be right near extremes?
Commercials (hedgers) Yes (often fade extremes)
Large specs Often caught wrong at turning points
Small traders Generally poor timing
How to use COT spec data wisely:

1. Watch for extreme positioning (historical percentiles: top 10%, bottom 10%)
2. Fade large spec positions at extremes, not during strong trends
3. Use COT in combination with price action, fundamentals, and seasonality

Would you like a real chart example showing how speculator positioning misaligned with price at a major turning point in natural gas?

How will be the weather in the U.S in this summer?

For Summer 2025 (June–August) in the U.S., top forecast highlights point to an unusually warm, and regionally wet/dry pattern—with pronounced risks in certain areas:
Heat & Temperature Patterns

1. Nationwide warmth: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and private forecasters expect above-average temperatures coast-to-coast (weather.com, yahoo.com).
2. Hottest regions: The Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Plains, Midwest, Northeast, Gulf Coast, and Florida are projected to see the strongest warm anomalies—with the Northwest and Plains especially scorching .
3. Urban heat alert: NOAA has warned this could become one of the “most dangerous summers in decades” due to extreme, widespread heat and urban heat island effects (timesofindia.indiatimes.com).

Precipitation Outlook

1. Eastern U.S. wetter-than-normal: Southeast, Mid‑Atlantic, Northeast, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, including frequent storms and possible flooding (snowbrains.com).
2. Southwest monsoon: An active monsoon may bring increased thunderstorms from Arizona and New Mexico into parts of California (sfchronicle.com).
3. Dry in the West and Plains: Expect below-average precipitation across the Northern Rockies, northern Plains, and Pacific Northwest—leading to persistent drought/wildfire risk (weather.gov).

Fire & Drought Risks

1. Elevated wildfire danger: Due to hot, dry conditions, much of the West—especially California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, and the Southwest—faces above-normal wildfire threat (en.wikipedia.org).
2. Ongoing drought: Nearly 45% of Western U.S. is already experiencing moderate to exceptional drought (en.wikipedia.org).

Hurricanes & Tropical Storms

1. Active Atlantic hurricane season: NOAA forecasts a near-normal to above-normal season, with 13–19 named storms, 6–10 hurricanes, and 3–5 reaching major hurricane status (weather.gov).
2. Old Farmer’s Almanac warning: The Gulf Coast—especially Texas, Florida, and southern Virginia—should prepare for possible mid-July and late-August cyclone activity, and early August hurricane threats in Texas .

Regional Takeaways by Season
RegionSummer Conditions Summary
Pacific Northwest & WestVery hot and dry, high wildfire risk, less natural moisture relief.
Northern Plains / RockiesExtreme heat, insufficient rain—drought prone.
Midwest / NortheastHot and sticky, with plentiful rainfall, thunderstorms likely.
Southeast / Gulf CoastWarm and wetter, humid with scattered storms; hurricane watches needed.
Southwest (monsoon belt)Heat accompanied by summer thunderstorms, flash flood potential.
AlaskaMixed: Southeast warmer, southwest cooler, some intermittent rains.
What to Prepare For

1. Stay cool & hydrated: High heat + humidity in cities → watch for heat waves & public advisories.
2. Drought preparedness: Conserve water and prepare for possible restrictions in dry regions.
3. Fire safety: Heed wildfire warnings out West—create defensible space around properties.
4. Flood readiness: Especially in the East and monsoon-prone Southwest—flash-flood and thunderstorm alerts likely.
5. Tropical plans: Coastal residents should monitor early to late summer hurricane threats.

Bottom Line
This summer is shaping up to be significantly hotter than average across the U.S., with wet weather dominating the East, drought/fire risk in the West, and stormy/hurricane exposure near coastal regions.
If you'd like deeper detail for specific cities or a breakdown of hurricane-tracking tools, just let me know and I’ll help you prep!

How will be the electricity consumption in the U.S. during this summer?

Here’s the picture on U.S. electricity consumption this summer:
Peak Demand & Growing Consumption

1. Peak demand on the rise
   The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) forecasts an extra ~10 GW of peak summer demand compared to last year—a growth more than double the increase seen between 2023 and 2024 (investopedia.com).
2. Year-over-year electricity demand climbing
   U.S. electricity use rose ~3% in 2024, a rebound from a milder 2023. The International Energy Agency expects ongoing growth of around 2% annually through 2027 .
3. Structural drivers behind the growth
   Strong demand is fueled by expanding data centres (spurred by crypto and AI), increased industrial activity, and electrification trends such as electric vehicles (reuters.com).

Summer 2025 Outlook: Heat + Demand Surge

1. Summer strain & higher demand
   Already in June, a severe heat wave pushed eastern and central U.S. electricity demand to the highest level in 12 years, driven by widespread air-conditioning use (nerc.com, investopedia.com).
2. Grid capacity stress zones
   NERC warns that regions like MISO (Midwest), New England, Texas (ERCOT), and the Great Plains may experience tight capacity conditions during heatwaves (en.wikipedia.org, investopedia.com).
3. ERCOT resilience improving
   Despite stress, heavy investment in solar and battery storage is helping ERCOT manage spikes—latest solar record hit 27 GW, aiding grid resilience (houstonchronicle.com).

Consumption Trends & Cost Impacts

1. Residential consumption slightly down
   EIA forecasts a small drop in household consumption (<1%), due to slightly cooler weather (‑1% fewer cooling degree days), despite slightly higher electricity prices (eia.gov).
2. Bills are still rising
   Average summer household electricity bill is expected at $178/month (up from $173), with 17 ¢/kWh average price—up from 16 ¢ in 2023. New England may see a $13 month-to-month increase ($193) (utilitydive.com).

Generation Mix & Emissions

1. Fossil fuels filling the gap
   With surging demand and high gas prices, coal and gas plants will ramp up generation—total U.S. electricity output is projected to rise ~1% this summer vs. last year (eia.gov).
2. Emissions rise expected
   Already, power-sector CO₂ emissions surged ~5% in the first five months of 2025 as coal usage jumped 14%, offsetting some renewable growth (reuters.com).

Summary & What It Means
MetricForecast for Summer 2025
Peak Demand+10 GW YoY – highest heat-driven demand in over a decade
Residential UsageSlightly down due to cooler weather, but prices higher
Monthly Bill~$178 average (up from $173), with regional spikes
Generation MixCoal & gas stepping in despite booming renewables
Grid RiskElevated in some regions—grid tightening in heatwaves
Bottom line:
Summer 2025 will see record-high electricity demand, driven by heat, data-center growth, and electrification. While residential use may hold steady, power prices and bills are rising. The grid will be tested in vulnerable regions, but advances in solar and storage—especially in Texas—are helping to buffer capacity stress.
Want a closer look at a specific region (like ERCOT or MISO), comparisons to prior summers, or tips for reducing your power bill? Just say the word!

1. investopedia.com
2. houstonchronicle.com
3. washingtonpost.com
4. economictimes.indiatimes.com

What will be the Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures price during this summer?

Here’s a clear breakdown for Henry Hub natural gas futures this summer:
Current Price Snapshot

1. As of July 4, front-month NYMEX futures (August delivery) are trading around $3.39/MMBtu, slightly down on the day (markets.businessinsider.com, reuters.com).
2. Prompt-month contracts for August have bounced recently to about $3.49/MMBtu due to hot mid‑July heat forecasts (reuters.com).

Summer Forecast & Drivers
EIA’s Short‑Term Energy Outlook

1. Forecasts show annual average spot price near $4.00/MMBtu for 2025 .
2. Note: futures often trade a touch below spot unless forward curve is upward‑sloping.

Market Sentiment & Analysis

1. As of May, the summer strip of Henry Hub futures averaged around $3.76/MMBtu, roughly 68% higher than last summer’s strip (peoplescompany.com, naturalgasintel.com).
2. Trading Economics projects natural gas around $3.59/MMBtu by end of this quarter (tradingeconomics.com).

Key Influencing Factors This Summer

1. Weather: Heat waves (especially mid‑July) are expected; rising AC use boosts demand (reuters.com).
2. LNG exports: New export capacity tightening domestic supply (marketwatch.com).
3. Storage levels: Sitting below last year’s levels—may support prices if heat persists (marketwatch.com).
4. Production trends: Slight increases in output, but demand growth may still dominate (reuters.com).

Expected Price Range for Summer 2025

1. Base case (moderate heat & steady LNG demand): $3.50–$4.00/MMBtu
2. Bull case (extended hot waves or lower inventories): could swing closer to $4.50–$5.00/MMBtu, with some analysts mentioning the possibility of front-month exceeding $5 (kiplinger.com, marketwatch.com).
3. Bear case (cooler weather or production spike): prices may dip to $3.00–$3.25/MMBtu.

Summary Table
ScenarioPrice Range ($/MMBtu)Drivers
Base3.50–4.00Typical summer demand & steady LNG
Bull4.00–5.00+Heat spikes, tight supply, low storage
Bear3.00–3.50Cooler summer, inventory rebuild
Bottom Line
Expect summer 2025 Henry Hub futures in the $3.50–$4.00/MMBtu range under normal conditions. Watch weather trends and weekly EIA storage reports—they’re the key swing factors. If July delivers extreme heat or inventory surprises, the market could quickly reach the $4.50–$5.00 range.
Let me know if you’d like a breakdown by month (July vs August) or insights into storage or technical charts.

1. marketwatch.com

However, TA conflicts with fundamentals......

The latest build of Motivewave Beta7 looks very close to official release. Many bugs are fixed and my charts are near 95% compatible now. It's a quite quick turnover. Sooner or later I will ditch Quantower as I don't need it anymore.

Exited with $2700 loss. This is the most stupid trade in several years!
Nat gas price is melting down...... Big H&S is still working and it would soon go below $3, perhaps up to $2.80.

Not much progress.... sometimes win, sometimes lose.... Not sure what I doing here. Missing old good days trading only seasonal spreads. I may go back sooner or later..... Enough is enough.