Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

EUR/USD Pair Hits Yearly High


Yesterday, the EUR/USD exchange rate rose above the 1.1700 level for the first time this year. The last time one euro was worth more than 1.70 US dollars was in autumn 2019.

The main driver behind the euro’s rise is the weakening dollar, largely due to decisions made by the Trump administration. This week alone, the EUR/USD pair has gained more than 2%, partly as a result of escalating tensions between the US President and the Chair of the Federal Reserve.
According to Reuters, Trump called Powell “terrible” and said he had three or four candidates in mind for the top job at the Fed. It was also reported that Trump had considered selecting and announcing a replacement for Powell by September or October (his current term officially runs until May 2026).


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Nikkei 225 Index Rises Above 40,000 Points


As the chart shows, the Nikkei 225 stock index (Japan 225 on FXOpen) has risen above the psychological level of 40,000 points — for the first time in five months.
Bullish drivers include:
→ Reduced geopolitical risks. A ceasefire between Iran and Israel has boosted market sentiment, with stock indices rising both on Wall Street (yesterday the Nasdaq 100 hit a new all-time high) and in Japan.
→ Easing fears of a prolonged trade war. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt noted that the timeline for implementing tariffs is flexible and could be extended.
→ Economic news. Recent data shows that inflation in Japan has slowed for the first time in four months: the core consumer price index fell to 3.1% from 3.6% in May.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: Gold Drop, Oil Slides — Traders Eye Macro Triggers


Gold price started a fresh decline below $3,320. WTI Crude oil is down over 15% and remains at risk of more losses.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today

 

1. Gold price climbed higher toward the $3,400 zone before there was a sharp decline against the US Dollar.
2. A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $3,300 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
3. WTI Crude oil extended losses below the $68.00 support zone.
4. A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $65.60 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Technical Analysis of Gold Price

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price climbed above the $3,320 resistance. The price even spiked above $3,350 before the bears appeared.
A high was formed near $3,395 before there was a fresh decline. There was a move below the $3,350 support level. The bears even pushed the price below the $3,300 support and the 50-hour simple moving average.

It tested the $3,245 zone. A low is formed near $3,247 and the price is now showing bearish signs. There was a minor recovery wave toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3,393 swing high to the $3,247 low.
However, the bears are active below $3,300. Immediate resistance is near $3,280. The next major resistance is near the $3,300 zone. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $3,300.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

XAU/USD Chart Analysis: Price Retreats to Monthly Low


In mid-June 2025, demand for gold surged following reports of exchanged strikes between Israel and Iran, along with US bombings of Iran's nuclear facilities. As a so-called safe-haven asset, gold prices climbed towards $3,430.
However, by the final day of June, the XAU/USD chart shows that gold had retreated to around $3,250, marking the lowest level in a month.
Why Is the Gold Price Falling?

On one hand, this reflects easing tensions in the Middle East, as a ceasefire—albeit fragile—between Israel and Iran remains in place.
On the other hand, the risk of trade wars is also diminishing. According to media reports:
→ President Donald Trump announced last week that the United States had signed a trade agreement with China and hinted that a “very major” deal with India would follow soon.
→ The US is also close to concluding agreements with Mexico and Vietnam, while negotiations with Japan and many other countries are ongoing.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

S&P 500 Sets New All-Time High, Surges Above 6200


The S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) started the week by reaching a fresh all-time high. As shown on the chart, the index hit 6,210 points earlier this morning.

In addition to a reduced risk of US involvement in a large-scale war in the Middle East, market optimism has been fuelled by:
→ Tariff-related news. Last week, the US President announced the signing of a trade deal with China, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed hope that the US would conclude trade negotiations with over a dozen countries by early September.
→ Strong corporate performance. On Friday, Nike (NKE) shares led the stock market, rising by more than 15% following an earnings report that exceeded analysts’ expectations. This could be boosting investor sentiment ahead of the upcoming earnings season.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The Pennant Pattern: Meaning, Rules, and Applications



Pennants are compact continuation patterns that often form during strong trends. They look similar to some technical analysis setups but provide different signals. This article explores what pennants are, how to identify them, how they differ from similar patterns, and what to look for when trading them.

What Are Pennant Chart Patterns?
A pennant is a continuation chart pattern that forms during a brief pause in the trend. It is typically seen as a smaller version of a symmetrical triangle and has features of flags with a flagpole being commonly used to determine take-profit targets.

This formation can be either bullish or bearish, depending on the direction of the overall trend. A bullish pennant pattern occurs in an uptrend and signals a continuation of the price rise, while a bearish pennant pattern appears in a downtrend and signals a continuation of the price fall.
The pennant definition includes three parts: the flagpole (the sharp trending move that comes first), the consolidation zone (where the price moves sideways and forms converging trendlines), and the breakout (where the price moves out of the pattern, usually with strong volume).

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 30 June - 4 July


Market Insights with Gary Thomson: Eurozone Inflation, US Jobs, ISM PMIs, ECB Forum Updates
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode, we discuss:
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— US ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI
— ECB Forum on Central Banking
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What Is the Cup and Handle Pattern? Unique Features and Application


The cup and handle is a well-known chart pattern traders use to determine potential breakouts. It may be easy to spot, once you know what to look for, but there are plenty of variables to consider. This article breaks down how the pattern forms, what to look out for, and how traders implement it into their trading strategies.

What Is the Cup and Handle Pattern?
The cup and handle definition refers to a chart pattern that indicates a shift in market sentiment and a possible breakout. The pattern holds weight as it shows a common shift in sentiment: sellers push the price down early on, and then buyers regain control.
Its name comes from the shape it creates on the chart: a rounded bottom (cup) followed by a smaller pullback (handle). The cup shows a period of selling that transitions into buying, forming a U-shape. The handle is a short-term consolidation or drop around the cup’s high. The handle remains relevant as long as the price tests the upper trendline before buyers enter the market more aggressively.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Euro Tests Multi-Year Highs Ahead of Key Macroeconomic Data



Amid waning interest in the US dollar and growing expectations of dovish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve, the euro continues to strengthen, rapidly approaching multi-year highs. Both the EUR/USD and EUR/CAD pairs are showing steady growth ahead of the release of eurozone inflation data, which could confirm the stability of price dynamics and boost investor confidence in the region’s currency.
The consensus forecast suggests that the Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) for June will hold steady at 2.3%, with the headline figure not exceeding 2.0%. Should the data match expectations, this may reinforce investor confidence in price stability across the eurozone and support the euro’s ongoing rally. Market focus is also directed towards a series of speeches from ECB officials and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which could further influence pricing in the mentioned currency pairs.

EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair has confidently broken above its recent high at 1.1750, testing a key resistance level at 1.1800. If the current news backdrop and support around the 1.1600–1.1700 range remain intact, the pair may continue its upward movement towards the 1.1900 mark. Technical analysis of EUR/USD indicates strong bullish momentum; however, such movement may also be accompanied by sharp corrective pullbacks and heightened volatility.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

USD/CHF Exchange Rate Falls to Multi-Year Low


According to the chart, the USD/CHF exchange rate has settled below the key psychological level of 0.8000. The rate hasn’t been this low since the financial crisis of 2008.
On one hand, the drop in USD/CHF is driven by weakness in the US dollar. The US dollar index has fallen to its lowest level in over three years, largely due to the conflicting trade policies pursued by the Trump administration. On the other hand, geopolitical instability has increased the appeal of the Swiss franc as a so-called safe-haven asset.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

What Is the Bullish Harami Pattern in Trading?



Candlestick patterns can often help traders pinpoint the start of an upcoming price reversal. One of the more popular reversal signals is the bullish harami, a two-candle formation that may indicate fading selling pressure and the beginning of the bullish movement. This article breaks down what the bullish harami looks like, how it works, and how it fits into a broader trading toolkit.

What Is a Bullish Harami Candlestick Pattern?
The bullish harami is a two-candle pattern that typically appears during a downtrend and signals a potential bullish reversal. It consists of a large bearish candle followed by a smaller bullish candle that’s completely contained within the body of the first. Visually, it looks like the second candle is “inside” the first—hence the name harami, which means “pregnant” in Japanese.
The first candle reflects strong selling pressure, while the next shows fading bearish momentum. Buyers step in just enough to keep the price from falling further, and the result is a small-bodied candle that doesn’t break below the previous low and closes above its open. It’s not an aggressive bullish move, but enough to signal hesitation from sellers.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Renewed Feud Between Musk and Trump Drags Tesla (TSLA) Share Price Lower



The US Senate yesterday narrowly approved Trump’s so-called “big, beautiful budget bill.”
Elon Musk, who had previously criticised the bill for potentially adding $3.3 trillion to the national debt, warned that Republican lawmakers who supported it would face political consequences. In a post on X, Musk wrote:

“Every member of Congress who campaigned on reducing government spending and then immediately voted for the biggest debt increase in history should hang their head in shame! And they will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.”

He also reiterated his intention to establish a third political force under the name “America Party.”
In response, President Trump issued sharp threats:
→ to apply federal pressure on Musk’s companies by revisiting existing subsidies and government contracts (estimated by The Washington Post at $38 billion);
→ to deport Musk back to South Africa.
The market responded immediately to this renewed escalation in the Trump–Musk conflict. Tesla (TSLA) shares fell by over 5% yesterday, forming a significant bearish gap.




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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/USD Analysis: Rally May Be Under Threat


The euro has appreciated by approximately 15% against the US dollar this year, as confidence in the United States continues to wane. As ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane noted in an interview at CNBC: “There is a degree of reorientation by global investors towards the euro.”

At the same time, officials at the European Central Bank have expressed concern that the rapid strengthening of the euro could undermine efforts to stabilise inflation at 2%. They warn that a move above $1.20 may pose risks for inflation and the competitiveness of export-oriented firms — an issue raised during the ECB’s ongoing ECB Forum on Central Banking in Portugal.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The Market Consolidates Ahead of US Job Data


After a volatile start to the week, the British pound has stabilised, with the GBP/USD and GBP/CAD pairs entering a consolidation phase. Investors are locking in profits following a recent bullish surge, as they await the release of key US labour market data, which could determine the direction of trading in the coming sessions.
Today, preliminary employment figures from ADP are expected, while tomorrow, market participants will focus on the US Non-Farm Payrolls report for June. The forecast anticipates an increase of 120K new jobs (below May data), with a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. Additionally, markets will receive figures on jobless claims and average earnings. Any deviation from expectations could significantly impact Federal Reserve interest rate outlooks for the second half of the year.

Political factors are also influencing the market: pressure from Donald Trump on the Federal Reserve leadership has intensified once again. The White House has reportedly sent Jerome Powell a list of global central bank interest rates, with notes suggesting that US rates should be lower than their current levels. These remarks have heightened investor concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence and fuelled speculation over potential policy easing.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

How to Master Technical Analysis



Price action traders are avid chart enthusiasts, constantly scouring price charts for valuable insights. Their trading approach is deeply rooted in technical analysis, a method that has been in the books of market participants for centuries. This article will cover technical analysis strategies and go into advanced technical analysis techniques.

Definition and Purpose of Technical Analysis

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/USD Rallies on Broad Dollar Weakness, USD/CHF Slips Lower


EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.1750 resistance. USD/CHF declined and now struggling below the 0.8000 resistance.
Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

 

1. The Euro started a decent increase from the 1.1600 zone against the US Dollar.
2. There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.1770 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
3. USD/CHF declined below the 0.8000 and 0.7950 support levels.
4. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7920 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 1.1600 zone. The Euro cleared the 1.1650 resistance to move into a bullish zone against the US Dollar.
The bulls pushed the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.1750. Finally, the pair tested the 1.1830 resistance. A high was formed near 1.1829 and the pair is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.1590 swing low to the 1.1830 high.
Immediate support on the downside is near a connecting bullish trend line at 1.1770. The next major support is the 1.1710 level. A downside break below the 1.1710 support could send the pair toward the 1.1680 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.1590 swing low to the 1.1830 high.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Understanding News-based Trading



News events have a significant impact on financial markets. Every headline — from economic data releases to geopolitical shifts — can determine trading results. If you understand the effect of news on financial markets, you can capitalise on opportunities and manage risk in this dynamic environment. In this article, we’ll share some tips on when and how to trade the news.

What Is News-Based Trading?
As a trader or investor, you need to know when to enter or exit a trade. But you won’t be able to predict future price changes if you ignore the news. Although technical indicators are valuable tools for price prediction, news arrives every day and the market situation changes. To act wisely, you need to know how to react to the news and make investment decisions and trades based on it.

Traders who follow this approach closely monitor economic indicators, market analysis, corporate announcements and geopolitical events to identify trading opportunities. That’s why on various platforms like FXOpen, you can find market news and analysis.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

S&P 500 Hit Record High Ahead of Holiday Break



Today, financial markets in the United States are closed in observance of Independence Day. Investor sentiment was likely buoyed by the latest rally in the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), which set a new all-time high yesterday, surpassing 6,280.
The bullish momentum has been driven by robust labour market data in the US. According to ForexFactory, analysts had anticipated a rise in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3%, but instead, it unexpectedly declined to 4.1%.
Can the stock market continue to climb?



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Alibaba (BABA) Shares Fall to Lowest Level in 2.5 Months



Yesterday, Alibaba (BABA) shares dropped to their lowest level since late April. The decline followed the company’s announcement of a planned bond issuance totalling approximately $1.53 billion, with a maturity date set for 2032. The funds will be used to support the development of Alibaba's cloud infrastructure and expansion of its international e-commerce business.
The market’s negative reaction may stem from concerns over rising debt levels and the potential return on these investments.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: GBP/USD Dips as EUR/GBP Accelerates Higher


GBP/USD failed to climb above 1.3800 and corrected some gains. EUR/GBP is rising and might climb above the 0.8670 resistance.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

 

1. The British Pound is showing bearish signs below the 1.3700 support against the US dollar.
2. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3650 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
3. EUR/GBP is gaining pace and trading above the 0.8600 zone.
4. There was a break above a contracting triangle with resistance at 0.8630 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair failed to stay above the 1.3750 pivot level. As a result, the British Pound started a fresh decline below 1.3720 against the US Dollar.
There was a clear move below 1.3700 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bears pushed the pair below 1.3650. Finally, there was a spike below the 1.3600 support zone. A low was formed near 1.3562 and the pair is now consolidating losses.
There was a minor move above the 1.3615 level. On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near the 1.3650 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3650.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.