The Swamp | Page 6179 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: The Swamp
Exit Attachments

The Swamp

  • #123,561
  • Jul 2, 2025 2:37am Jul 2, 2025 2:37am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If you want to try.. there is some R that needs to be sustained above to run at 1818. I wont say it will not go higher. Its a breakout level. But most breakouts fail.. A short from 1818/30ish may be worth a tp 1779/80.. Or maybe more. If early london stays below 1804.. Its in line with 7 green candle are rare.. you said 10.. I didnt count.. 10 are more rare
It dont appear to be going to 1818. If it stays down -180x it's likely to fall. Its still trending bullish. Its still early enough to take back 180x +. But if it dont it may bounce in the 174x area back to 1779.. That may be the time to look for some exhaustion and a safe place for a short. 11 green candles are rare. The way COT closed 2.5% of longs last week, has this as a good place for a drop. The inability if that is to happen of getting back to 1800+ now can cause some drop. Timing wise while Larger traders were unwinding longs. It looks like it may be trying to set up.. Not there yet..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,562
  • Jul 2, 2025 3:02am Jul 2, 2025 3:02am
On my normal day trade.. Sustained below 1770 closing would be a breakout. The 12h closes in 1h. 1770 is also supportive. So it can bounce here too. Its a level but its porous/spondy not rigid.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,563
  • Jul 2, 2025 3:13am Jul 2, 2025 3:13am
Quoting gatorinla
On my normal day trade.. Sustained below 1770 closing would be a breakout. The 12h closes in 1h. 1770 is also supportive. So it can bounce here too. Its a level but its porous/spondy not rigid.
i want a lower low as a confirmation but yea finally we are seeing some exhaustion
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,564
  • Jul 2, 2025 3:41am Jul 2, 2025 3:41am
Quoting johncen
{quote} i want a lower low as a confirmation but yea finally we are seeing some exhaustion
It's tricky here.. 1770 is a b/o support.. 1779 is LC.. If it would close here it favors a drop about 60/65%... But if not below 1770.. It complicates it.. Plus an attraction to 1779. has it coming back. It may be unable to fall and stuck.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,565
  • Jul 2, 2025 3:49am Jul 2, 2025 3:49am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It's tricky here.. 1770 is a b/o support.. 1779 is LC.. If it would close here it favors a drop about 60/65%... But if not below 1770.. It complicates it.. Plus an attraction to 1779. has it coming back. It may be unable to fall and stuck.
yea it seems not like breaking down
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,566
  • Jul 2, 2025 3:52am Jul 2, 2025 3:52am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It's tricky here.. 1770 is a b/o support.. 1779 is LC.. If it would close here it favors a drop about 60/65%... But if not below 1770.. It complicates it.. Plus an attraction to 1779. has it coming back. It may be unable to fall and stuck.
A close below now 1779 aids bears another 10 15%
You still need to b/o below 1770.. But it would have pressure to aid.. It may come back to 1779ish,, in a bounce from 174x.. It may not return either..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,567
  • Jul 2, 2025 4:04am Jul 2, 2025 4:04am
1790/1804 may be a good S entry area to look at. Its inside it will suck and be against most things you know. It may not get it.. 1770 did hold.. The st floor did not open yet. It may allow some retrace to 1790 ish..1770 does have pressure weighing on it.. but it didnt open yet
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,568
  • Jul 2, 2025 4:30am Jul 2, 2025 4:30am
Bears are looking tough atm pushing down on 1770. If they can't gitterdone A little shallow retrace may happen. historic retrace odds 70 80% compared to immediate breakdown at 20/30%
This is when grandpa sits back in the chair sipping some spirits..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 10 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,569
  • Jul 2, 2025 4:34am Jul 2, 2025 4:34am
Quoting gatorinla
Bears are looking tough atm pushing down on 1770. If they can't gitterdone A little retrace may happen. {image}
yup break below 1770 but then we have 1767, we may need a little bounce to gather liquidity to set new low.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,570
  • Jul 2, 2025 4:43am Jul 2, 2025 4:43am
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,571
  • Jul 2, 2025 5:14am Jul 2, 2025 5:14am
Today is mid week.. So far bears have aligned a few things. Being a mid week. That gives the bears a little more power in the setup.
I thought it was Tuesday.. 1789 may be a little harder to make.. But if it does it may be a better S area than stated earlier. I closed a little scalp long 79..After realizing it was Wednesday. Other wise i was shooting for 1789
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,572
  • Jul 2, 2025 5:22am Jul 2, 2025 5:22am
The real move may be after LC.. 1779 still has its claws in pa.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,573
  • Jul 2, 2025 5:32am Jul 2, 2025 5:32am
Quoting gatorinla
Today is mid week.. So far bears have aligned a few things. Being a mid week. That gives the bears a little more power in the setup. I thought it was Tuesday.. 1789 may be a little harder to make.. But if it does it may be a better S area than stated earlier. I closed a little scalp long 79..After realizing it was Wednesday. Other wise i was shooting for 1789
i have also closed half of my scalp long @ 1779 and the rest got stopped out @ be just now. I entered @ 1772
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,574
  • Jul 2, 2025 5:38am Jul 2, 2025 5:38am
The way things are shaping up.. Large cot traders increased short positions 7.8% a few weeks back. Last week they closed a small amount of shorts..0.4%.. but also closed 2.x% in longs. Today things things are pointing down to me. Pointing down on a wednesday makes a stronger sign. The COT moves can 500+.. I have little confidence the bond markets will help the usd. Still a fall even if muted can be a decent move. The USD had it worsts 6 months since 1973 under our moron king.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,575
  • Jul 2, 2025 5:48am Jul 2, 2025 5:48am
Quoting gatorinla
The way things are shaping up.. Large cot traders increased short positions 7.8% a few weeks back. Last week they closed a small amount of shorts..0.4%.. but also closed 2.x% in longs. Today things things are pointing down to me. Pointing down on a wednesday makes a stronger sign. The COT moves can 500+.. I have little confidence the bond markets will help the usd. Still a fall even if muted can be a decent move. The USD had it worsts 6 months since 1973 under our moron king.
am not good at counting waves but if this is the end of wave 5 from 1.02 and end of mini wave 5 of wave 5 from 1.106x then we may start abc correction and may see 1.1. For now this is toooo far away
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,576
  • Jul 2, 2025 5:56am Jul 2, 2025 5:56am
Quoting johncen
{quote} i have also closed half of my scalp long @ 1779 and the rest got stopped out @ be just now. I entered @ 1772
I thought it was Tuesday.. I reduced the chance of bounce in my evaluation.. It leads more to fall than earlier imo. Wednesdays can be pivotal for the rest of the week.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,577
  • Jul 2, 2025 6:07am Jul 2, 2025 6:07am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I thought it was Tuesday.. I reduced the chance of bounce in my evaluation.. It leads more to fall than earlier imo. Wednesdays can be pivotal for the rest of the week.
go bear go! If things go as per plan should see 1650
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,578
  • Jul 2, 2025 6:15am Jul 2, 2025 6:15am
Quoting johncen
{quote} go bear go! If things go as per plan should see 1650
It not a slam dunk.. But usually takes over the smaller timeframes. Things set up bearish to me..Probably a adr to start or more
Its looking down to me this week.. After London Friday into Monday it may be back here at 177x
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 7 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,579
  • Jul 2, 2025 7:25am Jul 2, 2025 7:25am
adp was so bad!
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,580
  • Jul 2, 2025 7:33am Jul 2, 2025 7:33am
Quoting gatorinla
Bears are looking tough atm pushing down on 1770. If they can't gitterdone A little shallow retrace may happen. historic retrace odds 70 80% compared to immediate breakdown at 20/30% This is when grandpa sits back in the chair sipping some spirits.. {image}
Grandpa was right
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
186 traders viewing now