As an aside it is 30 degrees plus here in the UK and my daft dog still wants me to throw its' disgustingly chewed ball down the hall{image}
{quote} ORB M15. I'm not waiting for another candle to close outside of it. But my entry is 4-5 points below the range.
I read that for the S&P 500 the time period is between the 35th and 40th. Minute after opening (10:05-10:10 NY local time, 16:05-16:10 my local time). If you were to transfer that to the DAX it would be the range of (03:35-03:40 NY local time, 16:35-16:40 my local time)
I suppose you can use whatever you want here, but the first 5, 10, 15, 60 minutes seem to be common for such an ORB approach. Are there any statistics for any period of time where someone tested this for the DAX over the last X days or are you all just testing it forward and hoping for the best?
What does risk/trade management look like (max. orders per day and reference bar, SL/TP, trailing stop, etc.)?
- #1,065
- Jun 30, 2025 5:41pm Jun 30, 2025 5:41pm
- Joined May 2022 | Status: Grateful for the Roulette Epiphany | 1,916 Posts
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
- #1,066
- Jun 30, 2025 5:45pm Jun 30, 2025 5:45pm
- Joined May 2022 | Status: Grateful for the Roulette Epiphany | 1,916 Posts
{quote} Wow vidvad...these letters are great representation of your roulette epiphany. I red through few of them, Dostoevsky was banned in my old country of USSR. The Devil, otherwise known as MindF*ck. {image}
That right there, in the proverbial nutshell, is the very same difficulty we find ourselves in when we attempt to become consistently profitable traders.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
- #1,067
- Jun 30, 2025 5:48pm Jun 30, 2025 5:48pm
- Joined May 2022 | Status: Grateful for the Roulette Epiphany | 1,916 Posts
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
{quote} There is positive statistics for 2025. You can answer your questions yourself, just go ahead.
Today first M15 / H: 23.977, L:23892 (85 Points)
I think strategy can be traded profitable but it need some filter or extra confirmation as if you will just blindly enter every single trade you will end up with making some pennies or even losing money. Sharing it as it may be helpful for someone. Best regards, Oscar
Good observation. I've already tested numerous range breakout strategies that define a fixed time period on various markets, using a purely mechanical approach without an entry filter, and I haven't been able to determine consistent profitability, especially over periods that would be of interest to me, such as a minimum constant profit of +1R per month (21 trading days). I've also tried various trade/money management approaches after a purely mechanical entry, but without achieving this goal. The best so far was at least a positive backtest on a reference bar with USD/JPY, which was at least profitable after two years from 2021-2023, but far from consistent profits on a monthly or even third-month basis. Like you say the profit margin is tiny after costs and especially time it takes to trade it. You would probably do even better with a buy and hold investment in some ETF or similar. However, this strategy has also lost significant performance since the Trump tariff wars. In other words, a purely mechanical approach and iron discipline may not be sufficient in a constantly changing, dynamic market environment. I am therefore very interested in this topic and hope for new insights that might help me.
- #1,079
- Edited 10:07am Jul 1, 2025 9:20am | Edited 10:07am
Hope that's right.
Edit: 10:25 - Almost triggered my stop below the reference bar.
Edit: 10:27 - Stopped out
Edit: 10:30 - Waiting for another close outside the range to place a second order (only SELL). Otherwise 1 loss for me here.
Edit: 10:35 - Went short and up it goes ...
I guess I'm getting "whipsawed" here today.
Edit: 10:40 - Still in it to win it. TP = 10 Points right?
Edit: 10:55 - I'm still in the trade but some questions came to mind while watching price ticking up and down
1.) Manually executing orders "click and point trading" can sometimes seem very difficult to buy/sell at the exact moment for a candle close outside the range, especially when prices are bouncing back and forth erratically (especially with my bad mouse).
2.) You should probably have a precise SL/TP or trade management plan in place beforehand. Manually deciding/executing all of this WHILE you have open positions seems inappropriate, and errors can creep in very quickly, which in turn makes disciplined execution according to a specific, pre-defined trading plan difficult.
Edit: 11:05 - Looks like price is now more likely to hit my SL again instead of TP. Anyway, will leave it alone now.
Edit: 10:25 - Almost triggered my stop below the reference bar.
Edit: 10:27 - Stopped out
Edit: 10:30 - Waiting for another close outside the range to place a second order (only SELL). Otherwise 1 loss for me here.
Edit: 10:35 - Went short and up it goes ...
I guess I'm getting "whipsawed" here today. Edit: 10:40 - Still in it to win it. TP = 10 Points right?
Edit: 10:55 - I'm still in the trade but some questions came to mind while watching price ticking up and down
1.) Manually executing orders "click and point trading" can sometimes seem very difficult to buy/sell at the exact moment for a candle close outside the range, especially when prices are bouncing back and forth erratically (especially with my bad mouse).
2.) You should probably have a precise SL/TP or trade management plan in place beforehand. Manually deciding/executing all of this WHILE you have open positions seems inappropriate, and errors can creep in very quickly, which in turn makes disciplined execution according to a specific, pre-defined trading plan difficult.
Edit: 11:05 - Looks like price is now more likely to hit my SL again instead of TP. Anyway, will leave it alone now.