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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #5,101
  • Aug 8, 2007 11:28am Aug 8, 2007 11:28am
Quoting Qpip
... You know like "It can't go up anymore, it just can't!"

Any thoughts?
Yes, it can. Through away that logic and read your charts. Don't second guess what you see.
  • #5,102
  • Aug 8, 2007 11:37am Aug 8, 2007 11:37am
Quoting NewstraderFX
Sell sell sell sell sell sell sell sell sell sell sell sell sell sell sell sell sell

GBP/JPY to the lower 230's

sell sell sell sell sell sell sell sell sell

Article: http://forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=40547

The current price is 244 and GBPJPY will pull up till 251 and probably above.
I hope no one beginners didnt open a sell to follow that advice.
  • #5,103
  • Aug 8, 2007 11:37am Aug 8, 2007 11:37am
Quoting Venturess
It's when brokers pay or take away interest (swaps) for Wednesday plus Saturday and Sunday, hence triple Wednesday (all paid on Wednesdays).

Thanks for that! So.. is it a good bet that if you could time a short for 1 minute past 5 est you would have reasonable odds of picking up some pips??

I guess everyone is holding their longs til then and then they will think.. holy s***t, I need to get out of these before all the others sell...??

Amazing what you don't know til you know it..

Thanks Venturess for the info..
  • #5,104
  • Aug 8, 2007 11:39am Aug 8, 2007 11:39am
Quoting Majd
My view: finding difficulty in breaking above the 23.6 of the major uptrend for the last 2 hours @ 244.00, then if it does the 50 level of the minor downtrend is close @ 244.30
Add to it a 38.2 of upward move @ 244.01 from 237.63 to 247.91 plus 20 SMA coming @ 244.48
  • #5,105
  • Aug 8, 2007 11:44am Aug 8, 2007 11:44am
Auslanco: or Anyone

I am refering to your post #61 in which mention "London start and BUT or SELL"

Do you mean B/S at the market?

What about a strategy like:::
And give me your input: what if the H= 205.0 and L= 204.5 the previous day, and at the LOndon open = 204.0;
Could you place a BuyStop, if it breaks above 205.0 and have a SellStop below 204.5?
Any comments on this strategy so if it breaks either way you get in, and have a SL of 40 pips and a TP of 120 pips as you mention.

And also what kind of wining ratio would this startegy have? Same as the Coin Toss?

If Auslanco cant answer can any one give either thoughts

Thanks

Zee
  • #5,106
  • Aug 8, 2007 11:45am Aug 8, 2007 11:45am
With any luck price will hit red thick line (71.2 degree) or goes toward blue.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4h.PNG Size: 25 KB
  • #5,107
  • Aug 8, 2007 11:46am Aug 8, 2007 11:46am
Quoting Qpip
As you can see from the first chart, DOW and geppy were quite in sync from 9:30 to aout 11:00 (EST), both mainly going up.

Then from 11:00, DOW was (and stil is) going up (+160). However Geppy has stalled ever since then. I suppose the fact that it went up so much and all indicators (except daily) show heavy overbought has something to do with an inevitable downward price mouvement, at least expections of it are reasonable (which is causing the stalling). You know like "It can't go up anymore, it just can't!"

Any thoughts?

I just think the same... but the market is crazy lately.
  • #5,108
  • Aug 8, 2007 11:48am Aug 8, 2007 11:48am
Quoting new_trader
With any luck price will hit red thick line (71.2 degree) or goes toward blue.
your trendlines look strange...
try to draw less trendlines... and with more price peaks...
  • #5,109
  • Aug 8, 2007 11:52am Aug 8, 2007 11:52am
Quoting auslanco
Ok .. thanks everyone..

I will have to go to sleep.. it's 2AM here,

Still no real retracement confirmation yet.... be careful if you are short... there could be another breakout to the upside. Best thing is to stay away from the market until london open tommorrow.

This could be the end of GJ unwinding. Daily charts are slowley turning up for it's next jorney towards 250+ within this month... we may get a clear picture by coming monday.
Go to bed for a while and the whole thread goes nuts. I want to thank you, auslanco, for the teaching you have given here. Made over 300 pips last night alone and in the 3 weeks i have been following this thread, have doubled my small mini account. I now have the ability to see what you are seeing and look at this thread as a collective meeting of the minds. I hope you stay, and just put the knuckleheads out of your mind. You have lots of support here.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #5,110
  • Aug 8, 2007 11:56am Aug 8, 2007 11:56am
Quoting ZeeTrader
Auslanco: or Anyone

I am refering to your post #61 in which mention "London start and BUT or SELL"

Do you mean B/S at the market?

What about a strategy like:::
And give me your input: what if the H= 205.0 and L= 204.5 the previous day, and at the LOndon open = 204.0;
Could you place a BuyStop, if it breaks above 205.0 and have a SellStop below 204.5?
Any comments on this strategy so if it breaks either way you get in, and have a SL of 40 pips and a TP of 120 pips as you mention.

And also what kind of wining ratio would this startegy have? Same as the Coin Toss?

If Auslanco cant answer can any one give either thoughts

Thanks

Zee
I don't think he was serious about it as a strategy.. it was just an illustration of money management... (I may be wrong)

If you can find anything that gives you 3 to 1 returns from a guaranteed 30% win rate then put everything you own on it..

Maybe someone knows better.. but i don't think there are any guarantees..

However the point is.. that if you stick to your stop loss and targets.. as long as you win 3 out of 10 then you make money..

The hard thing though is having the confidence to let the targets run as long as the losses..

Maybe someone else knows better, but that's what i think.
  • #5,111
  • Aug 8, 2007 11:58am Aug 8, 2007 11:58am
Quoting emda
your trendlines look strange...
try to draw less trendlines... and with more price peaks...
Thats gann fan, requires obvious high or low (1 point) and an angle and yet most lines look like they hit 2 points.
  • #5,112
  • Aug 8, 2007 12:03pm Aug 8, 2007 12:03pm
Well, we have broken and closed above the upper trend line of the wedge and now we have also broken and convincingly closed above the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders on the 4H Chart. I'm sure we'll get some sort of retracements or retests of old resistance lines which are now support, but it does appear to me that carry trades are back in play for now. Even the QQE on the Daily Chart has turned up though it has not made a cross yet. There does still appear to be some resistance at 244, which is the 23.6 fibo, but I think it will eventually break through. After all, this puppy has already run up over 400 pips in the last 12 hours. It deserves a breather.

M2B
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,113
  • Aug 8, 2007 12:07pm Aug 8, 2007 12:07pm
Quoting alex_raivola
The current price is 244 and GBPJPY will pull up till 251 and probably above.
I hope no one beginners didnt open a sell to follow that advice.

Better be careful about your excitement. There has been no change in the global financial situation, and if anything has become more risky in the last couple of days. Market sentiment can turn on almost random bits of news, and GJ could reverse instantly into a bear mentality.

Don't for a second think that the greed of the yen carry speculators can win against the large money flows that will occur in a major deflation of global credit.
  • #5,114
  • Aug 8, 2007 12:11pm Aug 8, 2007 12:11pm
Quoting markam
Better be careful about your excitement. There has been no change in the global financial situation, and if anything has become more risky in the last couple of days. Market sentiment can turn on almost random bits of news, and GJ could reverse instantly into a bear mentality.

Don't for a second think that the greed of the yen carry speculators can win against the large money flows that will occur in a major deflation of global credit.


beter thing to take it step by step .............. i think we'r going down now
If you count on hope in any trade ……. Get out of it
  • #5,115
  • Aug 8, 2007 12:15pm Aug 8, 2007 12:15pm
time to short now? SI on 1hr chart has turned to downward now
  • #5,116
  • Aug 8, 2007 12:16pm Aug 8, 2007 12:16pm
Quoting ffkly
time to short now? SI on 1hr chart has turned to downward now
I will wait another 45 mins before I decide, need 1h and 4h candles to close
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #5,117
  • Aug 8, 2007 12:20pm Aug 8, 2007 12:20pm
Quoting ffkly
time to short now? SI on 1hr chart has turned to downward now
But it hasn't crossed the 50 line. No short yet, unless you're trading the retrace...
  • #5,118
  • Aug 8, 2007 12:23pm Aug 8, 2007 12:23pm
Quoting karmostaji
I will wait another 45 mins before I decide, need 1h and 4h candles to close
Karmo, since the retrace already hit the 1hr 5sma, it's going to try to hit the 4hr 5sma, right?
  • #5,119
  • Aug 8, 2007 12:25pm Aug 8, 2007 12:25pm
My 5 SMA has touched 1H bar, but the retracement is not done, yet.
Anyone has it like this? I was told before 5 SMA has touched 1H bar, is done the retracement.
  • #5,120
  • Aug 8, 2007 12:25pm Aug 8, 2007 12:25pm
Descending MA15 on Daily now at 243.98 - which is, I believe, about top possible level for GBPJPY.

From here on, I personally believe we will drop to 239.00 (well, just below) support, at least.
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