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The Swamp

  • #123,521
  • Jun 30, 2025 9:18am Jun 30, 2025 9:18am
Quoting johncen
{quote} have that on my chart too but bull is not giving up and they are just keep pushing
Yeah.. I bet they are closing longs on the rises a little at a time
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,522
  • Jun 30, 2025 9:25am Jun 30, 2025 9:25am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah.. I bet they are closing longs on the rises a little at a time
1700 1692 1682 still un touched, i m not so convinced with bear yet, 15mins pa actually looks like it has gathered some momemtum to attack the high again
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,523
  • Jun 30, 2025 9:40am Jun 30, 2025 9:40am
Quoting johncen
{quote} 1700 1692 1682 still un touched, i m not so convinced with bear yet, 15mins pa actually looks like it has gathered some momemtum to attack the high again
hmmmmmm i dnt like this pa, doubt we will see 1682 today. More like a new high 1760
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,524
  • Jun 30, 2025 9:56am Jun 30, 2025 9:56am
Month end is hard to trade, i guess i should come back tomorrow
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,525
  • Jun 30, 2025 10:25am Jun 30, 2025 10:25am
Quoting johncen
Month end is hard to trade, i guess i should come back tomorrow
You have to expect spikes and drops back and forth. The close matters. This is institutional behavior.. next week Monday/tues it may spike too. A pin today close below 1682 keeps the 16 year one intact.. But It may still spike while they settle next month.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,526
  • Jun 30, 2025 10:28am Jun 30, 2025 10:28am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} You have to expect spikes and drops back and forth. The close matters. This is institutional behavior.. next week Monday/tues it may spike too. A pin today close below 1682 keeps the 16 year one intact.. But It may still spike while they settle next month.
what worries me is that 1700 1692 1682 still untouched. I kinda expect spikes today and pa going both end.
maybe should wait to see the close before deciding next steps
we are 60 pips away from 1682, bear has a lot to do if they want to get there
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,527
  • Jun 30, 2025 11:05am Jun 30, 2025 11:05am
Quoting johncen
{quote} what worries me is that 1700 1692 1682 still untouched. I kinda expect spikes today and pa going both end. maybe should wait to see the close before deciding next steps we are 60 pips away from 1682, bear has a lot to do if they want to get there
Yes. Its bullish.. its above 1682. To top is needs to close below 1682. Its 90 pips above 1682.. It dont look good for 1692 atm.. It needs to close below to top. Institutions may be mopping up short stops. let it close. Know this may happen Monday/Tuesday after the holiday even if it closes below 1682. A pin bar is what you would want at close today. No pin bar close today below 1682 breaks the 16 year trend.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,528
  • Edited 11:31am Jun 30, 2025 11:10am | Edited 11:31am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yes. Its bullish.. its above 1682. To top is needs to close below 1682. Its 90 pips above 1682.. It dont look good for 1692 atm.. It needs to close below to top. Institutions may be mopping up short stops. let it close. Know this may happen Monday/Tuesday after the holiday even if it closes below 1682. A pin bar is what you would want at close today. No pin bar close today below 1682 breaks the 16 year trend.
unless we start closing below 1750 there is no room for bear
I will wait for the close, if we exactly close the day/month/quater under 1682, it would be a strong reversal candle on daily tf. Well onlif this happens. In the next 4.5 hrs

i have 1830 as next target if bull decided to go higher
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,529
  • Edited 6:43pm Jun 30, 2025 12:35pm | Edited 6:43pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} unless we start closing below 1750 there is no room for bear I will wait for the close, if we exactly close the day/month/quater under 1682, it would be a strong reversal candle on daily tf. Well onlif this happens. In the next 4.5 hrs i have 1830 as next target if bull decided to go higher
I had some stall data. But that can happen for a extended time. That's why I focus on 1682. Its made a HH with no retrace toward 1682 to speak of. The hh is not the problem. Because that happen before often. If you look at a top.. lots of times the final higher pinbar is on the right side. I still need to wait for this finale close. with 35.hs to go. It dont look like its going to retrace. The clock is running. The time is compressed to these last few hours.
that was supposed to be 3.5h.. that month close broke 1682. Mondays high was broken today already. Just 3 pips, but nevertheless both are broken. now that the quarter closed, back to day trading.. 1785 has R value, unless sustained above. 1738 has attraction value
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,530
  • Jun 30, 2025 12:41pm Jun 30, 2025 12:41pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I had some stall data. But that can happen for a extended time. That's why I focus on 1682. Its made a HH with no retrace toward 1682 to speak of. The hh is not the problem. Because that happen before often. If you look at a top.. lots of times the final higher pinbar is on the right side. I still need to wait for this finale close. with 35.hs to go. It dont look like its going to retrace. The clock is running. The time is compressed to these last few hours.
yup i m also waiting for the close but bear is running out of time. If they are back we would close the hour under 1750 to trigger a drop
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,531
  • Jun 30, 2025 1:35pm Jun 30, 2025 1:35pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I had some stall data. But that can happen for a extended time. That's why I focus on 1682. Its made a HH with no retrace toward 1682 to speak of. The hh is not the problem. Because that happen before often. If you look at a top.. lots of times the final higher pinbar is on the right side. I still need to wait for this finale close. with 35.hs to go. It dont look like its going to retrace. The clock is running. The time is compressed to these last few hours.
seems we will be closing the month at the high
hope to be proven wrong but sadly no bear
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,532
  • Jun 30, 2025 6:13pm Jun 30, 2025 6:13pm
gator instead of 1682 we ended up with 1780

keen to get your thoughts but i can see us arriving 1830 before any potential sell signal
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,533
  • Jul 1, 2025 2:20am Jul 1, 2025 2:20am
i'm willing to take both if the first zone is not gonna hold i think nikkei has a lot of bullish momentum
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  • #123,534
  • Jul 1, 2025 5:15am Jul 1, 2025 5:15am
Quoting johncen
gator instead of 1682 we ended up with 1780 keen to get your thoughts but i can see us arriving 1830 before any potential sell signal
still no sell signals yet~ where have you been Gator?
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,535
  • Jul 1, 2025 6:56am Jul 1, 2025 6:56am
possible buy 1760/72... mostly 1768* ish
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,536
  • Jul 1, 2025 6:58am Jul 1, 2025 6:58am
Quoting johncen
{quote} still no sell signals yet~ where have you been Gator?
I got it to be bullish if there's exhaustion around 1768/69.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,537
  • Jul 1, 2025 7:23am Jul 1, 2025 7:23am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I got it to be bullish if there's exhaustion around 1768/69.
maybe like this still.. with a hh..if 1804 is willing to let is slip to 1768ish
it may make it to 1850ish with a adr.
Possible sweet spot 1768/69.. It may not touch below 1767
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,538
  • Jul 1, 2025 7:37am Jul 1, 2025 7:37am
DXY at well established monthly trendline back to 2011...so maybe a bounce coming.

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Its all just one persons opinion
  • #123,539
  • Jul 1, 2025 8:01am Jul 1, 2025 8:01am
Quoting axecap
DXY at well established monthly trendline back to 2011...so maybe a bounce coming. {image}
did eu hit your level yet
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,540
  • Jul 1, 2025 8:05am Jul 1, 2025 8:05am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} maybe like this still.. with a hh..if 1804 is willing to let is slip to 1768ish it may make it to 1850ish with a adr. Possible sweet spot 1768/69.. It may not touch below 1767 {image}
in the 1804 area now.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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