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The Swamp

  • #123,501
  • Jun 29, 2025 8:34pm Jun 29, 2025 8:34pm
Still no bear on short tf
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,502
  • Jun 29, 2025 8:34pm Jun 29, 2025 8:34pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} yea man! I hope bear will do well. month end rebalancing plus end of the quarter too
mid year too. Bulls are home on this side of 1683
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,503
  • Jun 29, 2025 8:40pm Jun 29, 2025 8:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} mid year too. Bulls are home on this side of 1683
yes Gator as we are trading above key support we may see some further up move.

any levels on your chart that we should watch?
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,504
  • Jun 29, 2025 9:08pm Jun 29, 2025 9:08pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} yes Gator as we are trading above key support we may see some further up move. any levels on your chart that we should watch?
not atm..But 1708/09 is the closer s/r .. above it atm too. a small crack below..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,505
  • Jun 29, 2025 9:49pm Jun 29, 2025 9:49pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} not atm..But 1708/09 is the closer s/r .. above it atm too. a small crack below..
A close below 1709 6.25hs would be interesting. If not being a quarter close today. on a normal day. Closing below 1709 may signal a drop. Whatever adr is left would be left from the high considered normal. but against trend, 70% of adr may be more available. The atm high near 1739 today. ADR down to 90 pips..70% is about 63 pips. It nearly fits neatly in a box with 1682. Friday had the same setup..pa went to 1754, before testing near 1682. That signal works about 60% of the time.. More under the right circumstances like Friday was
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,506
  • Jun 29, 2025 10:32pm Jun 29, 2025 10:32pm
COT Breakdown
Change in Long Positions (4 Largest Traders)
From June 10 to June 24:
15.2 → 14.8 = −0.4 percentage points
% drop in long holdings relative to original (June 10):
15.2−14.815.2×100=2.63% decrease in longs\frac{15.2 - 14.8}{15.2} \times 100 = \boxed{2.63\% \text{ decrease in longs}}15.215.2−14.8100=2.63% decrease in longs
Change in Short Positions (4 Largest Traders)
From June 10 to June 24:
57.4 → 57.0 = −0.4 percentage points
% drop in shorts relative to original (June 10):
57.4−57.057.4×100=0.70% decrease in shorts\frac{57.4 - 57.0}{57.4} \times 100 = \boxed{0.70\% \text{ decrease in shorts}}57.457.4−57.0×100=0.70% decrease in shorts
Summary of What This Means:
Largest traders are reducing their longs by 2.63%, while only trimming shorts by 0.7% over 2 weeks.
The imbalance remains extreme: they still hold 3.85x more shorts than longs.
The fact that longs are being closed at a higher rate suggests smart money is expecting a downside move or exhaustion near highs.
While both positions are reducing slightly, the long closures are proportionally more aggressive, which often signals distribution behavior before a decline.
That 2.63% decline in longs (0.4 % shorts closed) while heavy short is lighting the hedge in favor of shorts. Those are supposed to be the smart money.
That month 16 year trend is at 1682. The largest traders are 387% if I recall higher in favor of shorts. They closed 2.63% of their longs in the last report. This likely means something
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,507
  • Jun 29, 2025 10:46pm Jun 29, 2025 10:46pm
Today would be the day for bears to come out of hibernation. It's a good time to see if there is any bears left. Look for a sneaky cracks like getting below 1709 and it cock blocks 1718 later..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,508
  • Jun 29, 2025 11:16pm Jun 29, 2025 11:16pm
UJ heading down strongly
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #123,509
  • Edited Jun 30, 2025 12:33am Jun 29, 2025 11:53pm | Edited Jun 30, 2025 12:33am
Quoting gatorinla
Today would be the day for bears to come out of hibernation. It's a good time to see if there is any bears left. Look for a sneaky cracks like getting below 1709 and it cock blocks 1718 later..
1709 supporting for now which is not good news for bear
above 1732 bull may want 1754 again
update i have 1739 key level to watch
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,510
  • Jun 30, 2025 5:43am Jun 30, 2025 5:43am
Quoting johncen
{quote} 1709 supporting for now which is not good news for bear above 1732 bull may want 1754 again update i have 1739 key level to watch
on a normal day yes. On June 30.. I dont know.. Bulls did everything right. But atm they need to get back above 1729, they need to stay above 1720. They need to keep moving up.. Slippage may be 1720 lost.. 1729 is lost atm. The current pa is at 1719x.. Bulls need to take those back..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,511
  • Jun 30, 2025 5:52am Jun 30, 2025 5:52am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} on a normal day yes. On June 30.. I dont know.. Bulls did everything right. But atm they need to get back above 1729, they need to stay above 1720. They need to keep moving up.. Slippage may be 1720 lost.. 1729 is lost atm. The current pa is at 1719x.. Bulls need to take those back.. {image}
bull is keep defending 1720 atm and if bear failed to impress i can see bull will simple take over from here
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,512
  • Jun 30, 2025 6:26am Jun 30, 2025 6:26am
Still no bear~
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,513
  • Jun 30, 2025 6:38am Jun 30, 2025 6:38am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} on a normal day yes. On June 30.. I dont know.. Bulls did everything right. But atm they need to get back above 1729, they need to stay above 1720. They need to keep moving up.. Slippage may be 1720 lost.. 1729 is lost atm. The current pa is at 1719x.. Bulls need to take those back.. {image}
Bulls did it all right.. In these last hours of the quarter.. Its best for bulls to maintain above 1682. Today is still a monday.. Monday's are still a day to run opposite of COT. The high or low for the week day most often is a monday. Whatever happens now. Bulls want to keep the month close above 1682. It may spike and fall Friday is another holiday.. If today closes below 1682. Next Monday and Tuesday may be a good day for one last spike before falling. Today it made it to 1750x. It may have another to clear the weaker shorts with a pin. Or 1750 may be it today. If 1729 holds it and it slip below 1720.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,514
  • Jun 30, 2025 6:40am Jun 30, 2025 6:40am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Bulls did it all right.. In these last hours of the quarter.. Its best for bulls to maintain above 1682. Today is still a monday.. Monday's are still a day to run opposite of COT. The high or low for the week day most often is a monday. Whatever happens now. Bulls want to keep the month close above 1682. It may spike and fall. Friday is another holiday.. If today closes below 1682. Next Monday and Tuesday may be a good day for one last spike before falling. Today it made it to 1750x. It may have another to clear the weaker shorts with a...
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Sustained below 1720 may allow 1682. Bulls may be exhausted.. There some tech signs. Not definitive tech signs. Added with COT and 1682 if lost. Adds weight to the chances.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,515
  • Jun 30, 2025 7:12am Jun 30, 2025 7:12am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} on a normal day yes. On June 30.. I dont know.. Bulls did everything right. But atm they need to get back above 1729, they need to stay above 1720. They need to keep moving up.. Slippage may be 1720 lost.. 1729 is lost atm. The current pa is at 1719x.. Bulls need to take those back.. {image}
on a normal day bulls closed this perfectly giving a 60/65% chance of a run higher. The trend is up and all that. That leaves the 35/40 chance it fails. Below 1720 those odds for that high decrease. If its decreased enough. Monday still has the odds of making the week high or low. 10% of the time it makes both. Right now the monday high is 1750.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,516
  • Jun 30, 2025 7:15am Jun 30, 2025 7:15am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} on a normal day bulls closed this perfectly giving a 60/65% chance of a run higher. The trend is up and all that. That leaves the 35/40 chance it fails. Below 1720 those odds for that high decrease. If its decreased enough. Monday still has the odds of making the week high or low. 10% of the time it makes both. Right now the monday high is 1750.
back to 1729 holding R.. Now testing 1720..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,517
  • Jun 30, 2025 7:19am Jun 30, 2025 7:19am
after failing at 1729..at least atm.. a breakout candle below 1720 can be a longer comparative one below 1720.. If you thought 1682 would hold the month close below it. You would want to see a big red one form. a close below 1687 1682 would be best to start
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,518
  • Jun 30, 2025 7:44am Jun 30, 2025 7:44am
2 things happened 1729 held the R.. a 30 m close below 1720. its a start.. not a conclusion... a LL on the day. That about as positive as it gets for shorts atm. And it still may go higher.. At least u can tp or set break even. You can even hold to see what happens.. 1682 is not a joke level.. but its a close level.. The close matters..Not the other stuff
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,519
  • Jun 30, 2025 8:32am Jun 30, 2025 8:32am
Quoting gatorinla
after failing at 1729..at least atm.. a breakout candle below 1720 can be a longer comparative one below 1720.. If you thought 1682 would hold the month close below it. You would want to see a big red one form. a close below 1687 1682 would be best to start {image}
A HS has a chance.. Bulls are showing some exhaustion, but not giving up yet. Still on the bullish side of 1682..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,520
  • Jun 30, 2025 9:13am Jun 30, 2025 9:13am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} A HS has a chance.. Bulls are showing some exhaustion, but not giving up yet. Still on the bullish side of 1682.. {image}
have that on my chart too but bull is not giving up and they are just keep pushing
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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