(binned per thread starter’s request) My Trading Journal & Idea E

Hi everyone,

I’ve created this space to share and discuss all things trading — ideas, strategies, questions, chart setups, lessons learned, and everything in between.

This is meant to be an open and constructive place where we can exchange insights and improve together.

"Talent wins games, but teamwork and intelligence win championships." – Michael Jordan

Beep boop!

@btrfx1

Questions

1) What about the 9 numbered candles that also closed above/below the SMA? Those wouldn't have been valid entry signals?
2) How is the Stochastic indicator used to confirm a valid entry signal?

Screenshot (GER40 D1)



Indicators & Settings

SMA 10 Close
Stochastic 14/3/3 Close

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What AI says:

Moving average crossover strategies can work, but with important caveats. Whether they are profitable or reliable depends on the market, timeframe, execution quality, and how the strategy is optimized. Here’s a breakdown:

When They Can Work

Trending Markets:
Crossover strategies shine in strong, sustained trends.
For example, in equities or commodities during bull runs or downtrends.

Long-Term Timeframes:
Daily or weekly charts often reduce noise and false signals.
Example: 50-day and 200-day moving average (“Golden Cross” and “Death Cross”).

As Part of a Broader System:
When combined with volatility filters, risk management, or momentum indicators.

When They Struggle

Sideways/Choppy Markets:
Many false signals in range-bound conditions.
Leads to whipsaws and losses.

Short Timeframes (e.g., 5-minute):
High noise, poor signal quality.
Slippage and transaction costs eat potential profits.

Unadjusted for Market Conditions:
Blindly following crossovers without accounting for volatility, volume, or macro context is risky.

What the Research Says

Academic and quantitative research shows that simple moving average strategies may outperform random entry/exit, but:

Sharpe ratios are low unless optimized carefully.
Transaction costs and slippage reduce profitability, especially in lower timeframes.
Some edge can be found in momentum-based trend-following strategies, but they need robust filters and adaptive logic.

Tips for Making Them Work

Use a trend filter (e.g., ADX > 20).
Apply volatility filters (ATR-based conditions).
Combine with price action or support/resistance analysis.
Optimize for risk/reward ratio, not just win rate.
Backtest on out-of-sample data and validate forward performance.

Conclusion

Moving average crossover strategies can be profitable, but not as standalone systems in most markets. Their real value is as a component of a more comprehensive trading system. They work best in strong trends, on higher timeframes, and when combined with other confirming tools.

If you’d like, I can help you design or evaluate a specific crossover system—just let me know the market, timeframe, and type of moving averages you’re using.

[quote=Noisy;15292162]@btrfx1 Questions 1)

Hi Ramon

I used an old post to get this chart here, 1 hr chart with comments to help see a better view of prices before you hit the screen but you may have to get up an hour or so earlier to get it.

I better post it or she will give me the hurry up, hahahaha hope it helps

Did the 15 min chart make it any clearer for you??
Ben

Yes, that's not a problem.

Yes, I think so.

[quote=btrfx1;15292846] Hi Ramon,

Firstly let me say that looking at the charts prior to DAX opening is key to success, well for me anyway. With your restricted trading time availability I thought that for several hours of work, and 50, 70 100 pips (at whatever value a pip is worth would provide you with a nice payday ( I have no idea what funds you have available but you can do the maths. Start small and build up contract values, after successful trades, stops must be for me at prior lows of the Buy/SEll signals, so work out what suits you as acceptable safety net. (S/L)

In these charts I had hoped that you would have seen exactly where to buy the first trade---AT exactly 1700 hrs aest = 9:00am Germany-based on a 1 hr chart and then confirmed on a smaller time frame, and I suggest 15 min---if you need more proof than go to a 5 m chart, but let me assure you that very small time frames demand that you make a successful decision---every 5 mins and I don' think thats a good idea because you have no background proof that what I say is correct.

Only by you doing this work--repeatedly will you become proficient at getting in exactly at the right time. on a 1 minute chart---I mean how can it--the market is as fickle as wind direction.

In my experience the 1 hr and higher time frames provide better clues as to direction but being a nervous cat, one might be tempted to jump at a shadow if it doesnt look good, at every new bar opening. There are no shortcuts and the way I do it is not guaranteed, but when you can do it yourself I will then follow your advice hahahaha

THATS WHY I WANTED YOU TO PROVE TO YOURSELF THAT AT 1700 HRS AEST THE DAX WILL MOVE SIGNIFICANTLy---NOTE that I am not saying it will be an upmove or a down move---thats why getting up a few hours earlier before market is fully functional, is showing the general direction by the yellow SMA

How many times did the price go up at that moment---having established---and you need many days watching this scenario (DAX Opening) to become confident that it is safe, your past verification will provide the answer you need. but you must do that homework.

OK mate lets see what comes next, hopefully good chart reading, with signals, don't be afraid of making a mistakes, without them you will not improve and I can tell you I have made every mistake that has been tried, but hope i don't make any here. See you tomorrow at 1700 Hours aest
Ben

Hi again,
Just noticed how smart AI is, wish I had his bank account details to draw on hahahaha

Also let me acknowledge the many folk who have contributed to the trading world, Robin Hood and Swingman in particular, much more knowledgeable than me, I take my hat of to everyone who makes money from trading.

Nite mate
Ben

OK. So the trade entry should take place exactly at the opening (09:00 CEST / 17:00 AEST) and not 1 hour later. Therefore, I should get an idea BEFORE the opening to decide whether I will buy/sell or do nothing.

I could start analyzing the charts 2 hours before the open, but I think 1 hour before should be enough for me to get an idea of where price is at that time and what it will do until the open. So start = 08:00 CEST / 16:00 AEST. Then I have 4 hours where i can be active and observe/act. So end = 12:00 CEST / 20:00 AEST

As far as I understood it:

1.) See where the price is in relation to the SMA 8 on the H1 chart.

Above the SMA = Trend is Up
Below the SMA = Trend is Down

2.) Watch the price action until the opening on the M15 chart.

3.) DAX Opening = Buy, Sell or DO NOTHING (Wait for tomorrow).

[quote=Noisy;15292972]{quote} OK. So the trade entry should take place exactly at the opening (09:00 CEST / 17:00 AEST) and not 1 hour later.
Ramon, NO you aRE MISISNG THE POINT AND SLIPPING BACK INTO YOUR COMFORT ZONE OF exactness---you need to look back at every time the Dax opened to prove to yourself that is the best option. an be satisfied with an entry with an appropriate stop loss below your entry

Volume increasing is a sure sign that buyers will continue to push, prices up

If your analysis (Checking back as far as you want gives you confidence then do it)

The SMA is a guiding line for your visual interpretation of what price is doing---( a moving average is just that an average using a look back period)---AS YOU SAY ABOVE IN YOUR POST PRICE ABOVE SMA === TREND IS UP-
PRICE BELOW SMA ===TREND IS DOWN

Your continual reference to specific times is inappropriate, because the market will do whatever it likes, and your expectatioms for things to happen at specific times is just unrealistic---charts talk to you By showing you price action----AT ANY POINT IN TIME.

YOU DO NOT NEED TO SIT AT THE SCREEN FOR HOURS N HOURS, LOOK AT HOW MANY PIPS WERE MADE IN 2 OR 3 HOURS AFTER THE OPENING.---SOME DAYS ARE JUST LOUSY PRICE ACTION--SO TURN THE DAM SCREEN OFF FOR THAT DAY--YOU WILL HAVE HEARD IT BEFORE---:tHERE'S ALWAYS ANOTHER TRADE TOMORROW.

i DON'T UNDERSTAND YOU WORLD OF SPECIFICS, SORRY MATE, AND ALSO CAPS LOCK BUT WONT CHANGE THAT ALREADY WRITTEN.

BEN

I have been observing the 15 min chart all day here,

On my system, todays market gapped UP--so it did the right thing and closed that gap after 14 minutes of opening,-----doing monkey business now, --I do nothing here just observe---the next hour (1600 aest here right now) will be interesting to watch.

Ben

next move is at 1625 hrs aest and we have just seen a 70 pip move up, which was strong, in my eyes---will the Dax go up further--wait till 1700 aest----watch the monkeys play in the zoo, sending prices @#$%^&*()/???

If you are getting $100 per pip there's today's dinner already---another half hour to Open, still going up??????????????????

Ben

I need to see plenty of volume right now,, if not I will wait another 5 to 10 mins
Ben

Yes (maybe), but a backtest is of no use if I don't have clear rules in advance by which I act, as I wouldn't be able to objectively repeat what was tested anyway.

I trade CFD's and not products from exchanges. I don't know if you can trust this volume information on my platform. The fact that you see an increased volume (just tick volume) at the beginning of the largest session/exchange opening is probably natural and is not an indication that the price is moving further in a certain direction, but simply indicates increased activity from buyers/sellers (which, as I said, is normal at the start of a trading session).

I understand that and it's also the reason why I've avoided using indicators so far, because in my opinion they only show what can already be seen on the chart and don't help you see the future for just one tick. It may help me to see the market condition that has taken place up until this point (trending or range-bound), but I always ask myself what the point is here? It's only visible in hindsight. A hindsight illusion! You enter your order because you think "oh a trending market", BOOM it transitions into a consolidation phase. So what you do THEN, is probably way more important (having a pre-defined clear plan, risk management, trade management etc.).

I don't care what the market does or doesn't do. I have fixed times when I can observe something or do something and that's it. So I say yes, I need/want to have a plan that allows me to do whatever during this time so that at the end of a period (preferably month or quarter) I have made a total of X% profit while risking X%. What that is or isn't in pips/points/$ daily is of no interest to me.

If I get stopped out after 1 trade at $100/pip at a 30 Pips stop loss and my trading plan says I can risk a maximum of 30 pips per day. My day ends with -$3k and there is only canned food at the maximum... In other words, what I risk (% of my equity) and the maximum number of trades I can make per day in my available trading time is crucial.

--

Unfortunately, today I couldn't be at the computer 1 hour before the opening of the DAX as I wanted because I had to go to the dentist. But I'll take a look at what happened 1 hour before and 4 hours after the opening. I'll post a chart then.

[quote=Noisy;15293582]{quote} Yes (maybe), but a backtest is of no use if I don't have clear rules in advance

Hi Ramon,

I do not see any need for further discusson, as I am unable to provide those rules, never mind it has been interesting to discuss a way of trading by you.

My wish is for you to find that system and trade well.

Good luck, bi 4 now
Ben

My trade target was hit tonight, so I will be happy with that

GER40 | 30/06/2025

Available trading time window: 08:00 - 12:00 GMT+2 (white filled box on charts)

H1


M15

You are welcome. Thanks anyway for trying to help me. If you can find someone who can tell me how I can make consistent profits to make a living and what I have to risk by following a fixed daily routine and trading plan, send them here

Here are my requirements again:

Goal: Constant profits in the range of at least 1-2% per month for 3 months (typically around 63 trading days per quarter).
Max. daily loss: -5%.
Max. total loss: -10%.
Maximum available times: 08:00-12:00 GMT+2, 15:30-18:30 GMT+2, 10:00-00:00 GMT+2

I would also be happy for any person to show their strategy for entries and exists and post charts of all trades made (not hiding the stop losses and what has been risked % wise) over 63 days that led to such a result. I would then try to repeat it and donate all the profits I made to that person or to a charity organization of his/her/("it") choice.

Trading 101 - Lessons from AI

Question: Are pips, points or ticks a good metric to measure trading success?

Answer:

Pips, points, and ticks, while essential for measuring price changes in trading, are not reliable indicators of trading success on their own. Focusing solely on the number of pips, points, or ticks gained or lost can be misleading because it doesn't account for the size of the trade, the leverage used, or the overall risk taken. A large number of pips gained could represent a small profit if the trade was small, while a small number of pips lost could represent a significant loss if high leverage was used.

Here's why relying solely on these numbers is problematic:

1. Ignoring Risk:
   A trader might achieve a high number of pips in a single trade, but if the trade involved excessive leverage or risk, the overall profit could be wiped out by a subsequent loss.
2. Size Matters:
   The absolute number of pips, points, or ticks doesn't tell the whole story. A large number of pips gained on a small trade might be less significant than a smaller number of pips gained on a much larger trade.
3. Different Instruments, Different Values:
   Pips, points, and ticks have different values depending on the trading instrument. A single pip in one currency pair might have a different dollar value than a pip in another pair.
4. Focus on Profitability:
   Ultimately, the most important measure of success is profitability, not the number of pips, points, or ticks.

In summary: While pips, points, and ticks are useful for understanding price movement, they should not be the sole metric for evaluating trading success. Focus on factors like risk management, trade size, and overall profitability to accurately assess trading performance

My attempt to trade the DAX this morning. Huge M15 opening candle. Tried to buy, then instead of taking a loss, opened a counter position and then placed another buy order. Since then, it seems to have been going back and forth.