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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #10,481
  • Jun 23, 2025 6:41pm Jun 23, 2025 6:41pm
Quoting Benepamm
Greetings! I use these channels as additional zoo points. on M5 -channel H1 -N4, D On H1 - H4, D, W ... {image} {image} {image} {image} {file}
I am not sure how the channels would help seeing as they bend according to price. This makes them late in time with price and always look nice and tidy in hindsight.

Still using them at a higher time frame say 1-hour, could indeed give a clue to a turning point i.e. ZOO. A Bollinger band achieves a similar thing.

Yesterday we had a brilliant signal for a long being the wedge breakout...
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When we have periods of slow activity the market makes up for it with these larger pushes.
  • #10,482
  • Jun 24, 2025 1:48am Jun 24, 2025 1:48am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Я не уверен, как можно помочь понять, как они изгибаются в соответствии с ценой. Это...
Конечно, ваш подход самодостаточен.
Я не использую эти каналы по отдельности.
На М5 канал Н4 особо не меняется и в районе касания или пробития за счет старшего канала я однозначно вижу наличие расхождения на М30-Н1 затем М5-М15 и достижение уровней 26 ЕМА и только после этого принимаю решение.
Сам канал немного намекает на зону, где ожидается коррекция или разворот и обычно движение идет к середине старшего канала или к задней части старшего канала + ориентир на 26 + уровни ABCD и этого расстояния более чем достаточно для получения желаемой прибыли.
  • #10,483
  • Jun 25, 2025 9:41pm Jun 25, 2025 9:41pm
Good news today. The weekly chart shows price has all but hit the wedge breakout target depending on the accuracy of the thick lines.

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If price breaks above the 38148-level dragging the EMA behind it, then the next level is huge at about 1.55 and after that 1.68. We need signals to take it there but would expect pull backs also.
  • #10,484
  • Jun 25, 2025 9:51pm Jun 25, 2025 9:51pm
The daily has a little more upwards to go to hit the ABCD. (1.3712)

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  • #10,485
  • Jun 25, 2025 10:08pm Jun 25, 2025 10:08pm
Well, that's it, I have run out of targets.

Anyone see anything I don't see?
  • #10,486
  • Jun 26, 2025 2:00am Jun 26, 2025 2:00am
I now have one at 1.37338
  • #10,487
  • Jun 26, 2025 2:29am Jun 26, 2025 2:29am
Found another at 1.37482
  • #10,488
  • Edited 8:17am Jun 26, 2025 2:41am | Edited 8:17am
Quoting Nala66
Intro. My name is Alan, been trading for donkeys years. Now specialise in trading Cable only via a very effective but simple method based upon the evidence presented by the market and not what I may think will happen down the track. I am going to start this thread with the chart setups and then move on to what to look for, timing, targeting, money management etc.. and whatever else I find relevant at the time of writing. Overview... If you don't believe Price is always trying to make HH or LL averages then it is pointless for you to continue reading...
Take in consideration the new scalping techniques

{ virus risk deleted by staff }
  • #10,489
  • Jun 26, 2025 3:40am Jun 26, 2025 3:40am
The 5 min gives us 1.37714
  • #10,490
  • Jun 26, 2025 3:43am Jun 26, 2025 3:43am
Scratch that last one? It is back inside.
  • #10,491
  • Jun 26, 2025 4:40am Jun 26, 2025 4:40am
If this 15 min pans out the target is 1.37976
  • #10,492
  • Jun 26, 2025 8:17pm Jun 26, 2025 8:17pm
I am at a loss as to where I got that 15-min chart number from. Looking this morning and the number should have been 1.37691 as with the chart below...

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The grid on this chart is 40-pips so you see I made my daily bread before it hit the X level.

Note price did not hit the target though at the X level and made a massive pull back from there only to reach the level at the check much later. What was that all about?
  • #10,493
  • Jun 26, 2025 8:42pm Jun 26, 2025 8:42pm
I am never happy until I find the proof, so I just blew up the chart to zoom in on the drawing accuracy. I normally don't bother to be so accurate as long as I get my 40, then that is all that matters to me.

To be as accurate as I can, I see that price exactly hit the target. As they tell me over and over, no one knows where price is going.

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The chart here says 37703, mousing over the bar says 37702.
  • #10,494
  • Jun 26, 2025 8:54pm Jun 26, 2025 8:54pm
Here are the last 8 days or so of these wedge breakouts. As you can see, they are plentiful and since the risk reward is about 1:3 they are profitable also. Actually,
the risk is less that that because if price gets back inside, we simply close.

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  • #10,495
  • Jun 27, 2025 3:13pm Jun 27, 2025 3:13pm
These wedges are a very interesting prospect Alan, thank you for sharing their usefulness with us. In the period you show I do notice more wedges are present such as the wedge outlined by the pink circle on your chart below. Do you have criteria that disqualifies wedges other than moving back into the structure?

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  • #10,496
  • Jun 27, 2025 10:33pm Jun 27, 2025 10:33pm
Quoting Mike3000
These wedges are a very interesting prospect Alan, thank you for sharing their usefulness with us. In the period you show I do notice more wedges are present such as the wedge outlined by the pink circle on your chart below. Do you have criteria that disqualifies wedges other than moving back into the structure? {image}
Well, the more I look at these the more I am learning. The thing with learning stuff is in the proving of it and that is what I am working on currently.

Always at the front of my thoughts is the A to B which for want of better wordage I refer to the range of sentiment (ROS). This is where A is at the top and traders are winning by shorting. We have B at the bottom where traders buying and also winning. At some point the ROS is going to favor one side or the other.

This is the basis on which all my trades are made whether they be ABCD's, AB=CD or wedges where break to D is 1.5x Ab or 1.5xaB.

If we are between A and B i.e. a swing high to a swing low of price our task is to determine which way the ROS is going to go. This is where we set up a series of conditions to be met (rules of trade). Following this logic, it is the rules of trade (ROT) we have to find with the best results and also what is determined to stop the ROT when the trade does not pan out as planned.

Then the ROT has to be such that it is understandable without a series of amendments or additional rules causing conflict.

Hope all are still awake at this point. All I am trying to do is put my thought process into words, but the subject is huge and more fitting to a book rather than a simple post.

Now back to the question. I know there are many more wedges I didn't post, I just picked some to show the frequency they occur. I also find there are counter wedges within wedges. So, what to do? If we are trading above the average (EMA) then we should be looking for bullish wedges. It doesn't matter if price gets below the EMA to form such a wedge, in other words we are hoping for a continuation of the trend.

Is that enough for the day?
  • #10,497
  • Jul 7, 2025 6:27am Jul 7, 2025 6:27am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Because I was reacting to the bull div on the 15 min and that was the expected swing high average to go for on that timeframe. Edit... It actually did make my target but because I had to go out, I moved my stop. {image}
Hey Alan,
I have a small question for you, in this picture I also identify one more divergence and a few entry that myself think that I would enter, I draw this right below, can you please explain why does that should not the the entry please, because I see you have by pass al off them, one of which is the first divergence, the second one is when bull find support and the third one is that when price retest the ema
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  • #10,498
  • Jul 7, 2025 7:14am Jul 7, 2025 7:14am
Quoting Fiona96
{quote} Hey Alan, I have a small question for you, in this picture I also identify one more divergence and a few entry that myself think that I would enter, I draw this right below, can you please explain why does that should not the the entry please, because I see you have by pass al off them, one of which is the first divergence, the second one is when bull find support and the third one is that when price retest the ema {image}
Need to draw the divergence on the SMA1 on the chart hence 1st entry is wrong. Still looking at the others
  • #10,499
  • Jul 7, 2025 12:09pm Jul 7, 2025 12:09pm
Quoting Fiona96
{quote} Hey Alan, I have a small question for you, in this picture I also identify one more divergence and a few entry that myself think that I would enter, I draw this right below, can you please explain why does that should not the the entry please, because I see you have by pass al off them, one of which is the first divergence, the second one is when bull find support and the third one is that when price retest the ema {image}
My RSI history chart does not go back that far but looking at yours we can see that long tail was in Hidden div all the way down, so it snapped back as expected and ran back to the EMA.

Also, on that day there was three ABCD's.

What is missing on your charts are the EMA's from higher time frames. These show additional ZOO points we should be closely watching.
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Keep your eye on these ZOO points and check the lower time frames for possible entries with the ABCD's as the targets.
  • #10,500
  • Jul 8, 2025 10:07am Jul 8, 2025 10:07am
One particular thing I am noticing about these wedge breakouts is their drive to the target almost unchallenged. Compare this to the ABCD which is often very irratic and long drawn out.

On the 1-hour chart below the greens are wedge breaks whereas the red is the ABCD.

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